Interactive Epistemology and Reasoning: On the Foundations of Game Theory

Game theory describes and analyzes strategic interaction. It is usually distinguished between static games, which are strategic situations in which the players choose only once as well as simultaneously, and dynamic games, which are strategic situations involving sequential choices. In addition, dynamic games can be further classified according to perfect and imperfect information. Indeed, a dynamic game is said to exhibit perfect information, whenever at any point of the game every player has full informational access to all choices that have been conducted so far. However, in the case of imperfect information some players are not fully informed about some choices. Game-theoretic analysis proceeds in two steps. Firstly, games are modelled by so-called form structures which extract and formalize the significant parts of the underlying strategic interaction. The basic and most commonly used models of games are the normal form, which rather sparsely describes a game merely in terms of the players' strategy sets and utilities, and the extensive form, which models a game in a more detailed way as a tree. In fact, it is standard to formalize static games with the normal form and dynamic games with the extensive form. Secondly, solution concepts are developed to solve models of games in the sense of identifying the choices that should be taken by rational players. Indeed, the ultimate objective of the classical approach to game theory, which is of normative character, is the development of a solution concept that is capable of identifying a unique choice for every player in an arbitrary game. However, given the large variety of games, it is not at all certain whether it is possible to device a solution concept with such universal capability. Alternatively, interactive epistemology provides an epistemic approach to game theory of descriptive character. This rather recent discipline analyzes the relation between knowledge, belief and choice of game-playing agents in an epistemic framework. The description of the players' choices in a given game relative to various epistemic assumptions constitutes the fundamental problem addressed by an epistemic approach to game theory. In a general sense, the objective of interactive epistemology consists in characterizing existing game-theoretic solution concepts in terms of epistemic assumptions as well as in proposing novel solution concepts by studying the game-theoretic implications of refined or new epistemic hypotheses. Intuitively, an epistemic model of a game can be interpreted as representing the reasoning of the players. Indeed, before making a decision in a game, the players reason about the game and their respective opponents, given their knowledge and beliefs. Precisely these epistemic mental states on which players base their decisions are explicitly expressible in an epistemic framework. In this PhD thesis, we consider an epistemic approach to game theory from a foundational point of view. In Chapter 1, basic game-theoretic notions as well as Aumann's epistemic framework for games are expounded and illustrated. Also, Aumann's sufficient conditions for backward induction are presented and his conceptual views discussed. In Chapter 2, Aumann's interactive epistemology is conceptually analyzed. In Chapter 3, which is based on joint work with Conrad Heilmann, a three-stage account for dynamic games is introduced and a type-based epistemic model is extended with a notion of agent connectedness. Then, sufficient conditions for backward induction are derived. In Chapter 4, which is based on joint work with Jérémie Cabessa, a topological approach to interactive epistemology is initiated. In particular, the epistemic-topological operator limit knowledge is defined and some implications for games considered. In Chapter 5, which is based on joint work with Jérémie Cabessa and Andrés Perea, Aumann's impossibility theorem on agreeing to disagree is revisited and weakened in the sense that possible contexts are provided in which agents can indeed agree to disagree.

Semi-supervised segmentation of ultrasound images based on patch representation and continuous min cut.

Ultrasound segmentation is a challenging problem due to the inherent speckle and some artifacts like shadows, attenuation and signal dropout. Existing methods need to include strong priors like shape priors or analytical intensity models to succeed in the segmentation. However, such priors tend to limit these methods to a specific target or imaging settings, and they are not always applicable to pathological cases. This work introduces a semi-supervised segmentation framework for ultrasound imaging that alleviates the limitation of fully automatic segmentation, that is, it is applicable to any kind of target and imaging settings. Our methodology uses a graph of image patches to represent the ultrasound image and user-assisted initialization with labels, which acts as soft priors. The segmentation problem is formulated as a continuous minimum cut problem and solved with an efficient optimization algorithm. We validate our segmentation framework on clinical ultrasound imaging (prostate, fetus, and tumors of the liver and eye). We obtain high similarity agreement with the ground truth provided by medical expert delineations in all applications (94% DICE values in average) and the proposed algorithm performs favorably with the literature.

Improvement of cardiovascular risk prediction: time to review current knowledge, debates, and fundamentals on how to assess test characteristics.

Cardiovascular risk assessment might be improved with the addition of emerging, new tests derived from atherosclerosis imaging, laboratory tests or functional tests. This article reviews relative risk, odds ratios, receiver-operating curves, posttest risk calculations based on likelihood ratios, the net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination. This serves to determine whether a new test has an added clinical value on top of conventional risk testing and how this can be verified statistically. Two clinically meaningful examples serve to illustrate novel approaches. This work serves as a review and basic work for the development of new guidelines on cardiovascular risk prediction, taking into account emerging tests, to be proposed by members of the 'Taskforce on Vascular Risk Prediction' under the auspices of the Working Group 'Swiss Atherosclerosis' of the Swiss Society of Cardiology in the future.

Measuring discrepancies between knowledge, preoccupation and fear of aids in populations.

A simple tool to quantify discrepancies between knowledge, preoccupation and fear regarding hiv and aids is presented. This tool is based on standard questions available in health surveys. Some results using recent Swiss data are presented, and the method is discussed.

NanoImpactNet - Stakeholders' knowledge needs for research on the health and environmental impact of nanomaterials

NanoImpactNet (NIN) is a multidisciplinary European Commission funded network on the environmental, health and safety (EHS) impact of nanomaterials. The 24 founding scientific institutes are leading European research groups active in the fields of nanosafety, nanorisk assessment and nanotoxicology. This 4−year project is the new focal point for information exchange within the research community. Contact with other stakeholders is vital and their needs are being surveyed. NIN is communicating with 100s of stakeholders: businesses; internet platforms; industry associations; regulators; policy makers; national ministries; international agencies; standard−setting bodies and NGOs concerned by labour rights, EHS or animal welfare. To improve this communication, internet research, a questionnaire distributed via partners and targeted phone calls were used to identify stakeholders' interests and needs. Knowledge gaps and the necessity for further data mentioned by representatives of all stakeholder groups in the targeted phone calls concerned: potential toxic and safety hazards of nanomaterials throughout their lifecycles; fate and persistence of nanoparticles in humans, animals and the environment; risks associated to nanoparticle exposure; participation in the preparation of nomenclature, standards, methodologies, protocols and benchmarks; development of best practice guidelines; voluntary schemes on responsibility; databases of materials, research topics and themes. Findings show that stakeholders and NIN researchers share very similar knowledge needs, and that open communication and free movement of knowledge will benefit both researchers and industry. Consequently NIN will encourage stakeholders to be active members. These survey findings will be used to improve NIN's communication tools to further build on interdisciplinary relationships towards a healthy future with nanotechnology.

VIKI : a semiotic-based system for multilingual knowledge retrieval

Abstract Since its creation, the Internet has permeated our daily life. The web is omnipresent for communication, research and organization. This exploitation has resulted in the rapid development of the Internet. Nowadays, the Internet is the biggest container of resources. Information databases such as Wikipedia, Dmoz and the open data available on the net are a great informational potentiality for mankind. The easy and free web access is one of the major feature characterizing the Internet culture. Ten years earlier, the web was completely dominated by English. Today, the web community is no longer only English speaking but it is becoming a genuinely multilingual community. The availability of content is intertwined with the availability of logical organizations (ontologies) for which multilinguality plays a fundamental role. In this work we introduce a very high-level logical organization fully based on semiotic assumptions. We thus present the theoretical foundations as well as the ontology itself, named Linguistic Meta-Model. The most important feature of Linguistic Meta-Model is its ability to support the representation of different knowledge sources developed according to different underlying semiotic theories. This is possible because mast knowledge representation schemata, either formal or informal, can be put into the context of the so-called semiotic triangle. In order to show the main characteristics of Linguistic Meta-Model from a practical paint of view, we developed VIKI (Virtual Intelligence for Knowledge Induction). VIKI is a work-in-progress system aiming at exploiting the Linguistic Meta-Model structure for knowledge expansion. It is a modular system in which each module accomplishes a natural language processing task, from terminology extraction to knowledge retrieval. VIKI is a supporting system to Linguistic Meta-Model and its main task is to give some empirical evidence regarding the use of Linguistic Meta-Model without claiming to be thorough.

Implementation of guidelines on delirium in a General Hospital: a before-after study of their impact on caregivers' knowledge and clinical skills

INTRODUCTION: Delirium is a highly prevalent disorder, with serious consequences for the hospitalised patient. Nevertheless, it remains under-diagnosed and under-treated. We developed evidence-based clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) focusing on prevention, screening, diagnosis, and treatment of delirium in a general hospital. This article presents the implementation process of these CPGs and a before-after study assessing their impact on healthcare professionals' knowledge and on clinical practice. METHODS: CPGs on delirium were first implemented in two wards (Neurology and Neurosurgery) of the Lausanne university hospital. Interactive one-hour educational sessions for small groups of nurses and physicians were organised. Participants received a summary of the guidelines and completed a multiple choice questionnaire, assessing putative changes in knowledge, before and three months after the educational session. Other indicators such as "diagnosis of delirium" reported in the discharge letters, and mean duration of patients' hospital stay before and after implementation were compared. RESULTS: Eighty percent of the nurses and physicians from the Neurology and Neurosurgery wards attended the educational sessions. Both nurses and physicians significantly improved their knowledge after the implementation (+9 percentage-points). Other indicators were not modified by the intervention. CONCLUSION: A single interactive intervention improved both nurses' and physicians' knowledge on delirium. Sustained and repeated interventions are probably needed to demonstrate changes in clinical practice.

Référentiels des compétences et des métiers : une approche ontologique

Résumé La mondialisation des marchés, les mutations du contexte économique et enfin l'impact des nouvelles technologies de l'information ont obligé les entreprises à revoir la façon dont elles gèrent leurs capitaux intellectuel (gestion des connaissances) et humain (gestion des compétences). II est communément admis aujourd'hui que ceux-ci jouent un rôle particulièrement stratégique dans l'organisation. L'entreprise désireuse de se lancer dans une politique gestion de ces capitaux devra faire face à différents problèmes. En effet, afin de gérer ces connaissances et ces compétences, un long processus de capitalisation doit être réalisé. Celui-ci doit passer par différentes étapes comme l'identification, l'extraction et la représentation des connaissances et des compétences. Pour cela, il existe différentes méthodes de gestion des connaissances et des compétences comme MASK, CommonKADS, KOD... Malheureusement, ces différentes méthodes sont très lourdes à mettre en oeuvre, et se cantonnent à certains types de connaissances et sont, par conséquent, plus limitées dans les fonctionnalités qu'elles peuvent offrir. Enfin, la gestion des compétences et la gestion des connaissances sont deux domaines dissociés alors qu'il serait intéressant d'unifier ces deux approches en une seule. En effet, les compétences sont très proches des connaissances comme le souligne la définition de la compétence qui suit : « un ensemble de connaissances en action dans un contexte donné ». Par conséquent, nous avons choisi d'appuyer notre proposition sur le concept de compétence. En effet, la compétence est parmi les connaissances de l'entreprise l'une des plus cruciales, en particulier pour éviter la perte de savoir-faire ou pour pouvoir prévenir les besoins futurs de l'entreprise, car derrière les compétences des collaborateurs, se trouve l'efficacité de l'organisation. De plus, il est possible de décrire grâce à la compétence de nombreux autres concepts de l'organisation, comme les métiers, les missions, les projets, les formations... Malheureusement, il n'existe pas réellement de consensus sur la définition de la compétence. D'ailleurs, les différentes définitions existantes, même si elles sont pleinement satisfaisantes pour les experts, ne permettent pas de réaliser un système opérationnel. Dans notre approche; nous abordons la gestion des compétences à l'aide d'une méthode de gestion des connaissances. En effet, de par leur nature même, connaissance et compétence sont intimement liées et donc une telle méthode est parfaitement adaptée à la gestion des compétences. Afin de pouvoir exploiter ces connaissances et ces compétences nous avons dû, dans un premier temps, définir les concepts organisationnels de façon claire et computationnelle. Sur cette base, nous proposons une méthodologie de construction des différents référentiels d'entreprise (référentiel de compétences, des missions, des métiers...). Pour modéliser ces différents référentiels, nous avons choisi l'ontologie, car elle permet d'obtenir des définitions cohérentes et consensuelles aux concepts tout en supportant les diversités langagières. Ensuite, nous cartographions les connaissances de l'entreprise (formations, missions, métiers...) sur ces différentes ontologies afin de pouvoir les exploiter et les diffuser. Notre approche de la gestion des connaissances et de la gestion des compétences a permis la réalisation d'un outil offrant de nombreuses fonctionnalités comme la gestion des aires de mobilités, l'analyse stratégique, les annuaires ou encore la gestion des CV. Abstract The globalization of markets, the easing of economical regulation and finally the impact of new information and communication technologies have obliged firms to re-examine the way they manage their knowledge capital (knowledge management) and their human capital (competence management). It is commonly admitted that knowledge plays a slightly strategical role in the organization. The firms who want to establish one politic of management of these capitals will have to face with different problems. To manage that knowledge, a long process of capitalization must be done. That one has different steps like identification, extraction and representation of knowledge and competences. There are some different methods of knowledge management like MASK, CommonKADS or KOD. Unfortunately, those methods are very difficult to implement and are using only some types of knowledge and are consequently more limited in the functionalities they can offer. Knowledge management and competence management are two different domain where it could be interesting to unify those to one. Indeed, competence is very close than knowledge as underline this definition: "a set of knowledge in action in a specified context". We choose in our approach to rely on the concept of competence. Indeed, the competence is one of crucial knowledge in the company, particularly to avoid the loss of know-how or to prevent future needs. Because behind collaborator's competence, we can find company efficiency. Unfortunately, there is no real consensus on the definition of the concept of competence. Moreover, existing different definitions don't permit to develop an operational system. Among other key concept, we can find jobs, mission, project, and training... Moreover, we approach different problems of the competence management under the angle of the knowledge management. Indeed, knowledge and competence are closely linked. Then, we propose a method to build different company repositories (competence, jobs, projects repositories). To model those different repositories we choose ontology because it permits to obtain coherent and consensual definitions of the concepts with support of linguistics diversities too. This building repositories method coupled with this knowledge and competence management approach permitted the realization of a tool offering functionalities like mobility management, strategical analysis, yellow pages or CV management.

Development and Consequences of Referendum Campaigns in Switzerland, 1981-1999

Since the early 1990s, new forms of referendum campaigns have emerged in the Swiss political arena. In this paper, we examine how referendum campaigns have transformed in Switzerland, focusing on a number of features: their intensity, duration and inclusiveness (i.e., the variety of actors involved). These features are assumed to change in the long run in response to societal changes and in the short run as a function of variations in elite support. We further argue that public knowledge of ballot issues depends on the characteristics of campaigns. To formally test our hypotheses, we draw on advertisement campaigns in six major Swiss newspapers in the four weeks preceding each ballot from 1981 to 1999 and develop a structural equation model. We indeed find that the duration of referendum campaigns has increased over time, while their inclusiveness has decreased. Most importantly, we find that pub­lic knowledge is strongly related to the characteristics of campaigns

NanoImpactNet - building a multi-stakeholder dialogue on the health and environmental impact of nanomaterials

NanoImpactNet (NIN) is a multidisciplinary European Commission funded network on the environmental, health and safety (EHS) impact of nanomaterials. The 24 founding scientific institutes are leading European research groups active in the fields of nanosafety, nanorisk assessment and nanotoxicology. This 4-year project is the new focal point for information exchange within the research community. Contact with other stakeholders is vital and their needs are being surveyed. NIN is communicating with 100s of stakeholders: businesses; internet platforms; industry associations; regulators; policy makers; national ministries; international agencies; standard-setting bodies and NGOs concerned by labour rights, EHS or animal welfare. To improve this communication, internet research, a questionnaire distributed via partners and targeted phone calls were used to identify stakeholders' interests and needs. Knowledge gaps and the necessity for further data mentioned by representatives of all stakeholder groups in the targeted phone calls concerned: • the potential toxic and safety hazards of nanomaterials throughout their lifecycles; • the fate and persistence of nanoparticles in humans, animals and the environment; • the associated risks of nanoparticle exposure; • greater participation in: the preparation of nomenclature, standards, methodologies, protocols and benchmarks; • the development of best practice guidelines; • voluntary schemes on responsibility; • databases of materials, research topics and themes, but also of expertise. These findings suggested that stakeholders and NIN researchers share very similar knowledge needs, and that open communication and free movement of knowledge will benefit both researchers and industry. Subsequently a workshop was organised by NIN focused on building a sustainable multi-stakeholder dialogue. Specific questions were asked to different stakeholder groups to encourage discussions and open communication. 1. What information do stakeholders need from researchers and why? The discussions about this question confirmed the needs identified in the targeted phone calls. 2. How to communicate information? While it was agreed that reporting should be enhanced, commercial confidentiality and economic competition were identified as major obstacles. It was recognised that expertise was needed in the areas of commercial law and economics for a wellinformed treatment of this communication issue. 3. Can engineered nanomaterials be used safely? The idea that nanomaterials are probably safe because some of them have been produced 'for a long time', was questioned, since many materials in common use have been proved to be unsafe. The question of safety is also about whether the public has confidence. New legislation like REACH could help with this issue. Hazards do not materialise if exposure can be avoided or at least significantly reduced. Thus, there is a need for information on what can be regarded as acceptable levels of exposure. Finally, it was noted that there is no such thing as a perfectly safe material but only boundaries. At this moment we do not know where these boundaries lie. The matter of labelling of products containing nanomaterials was raised, as in the public mind safety and labelling are connected. This may need to be addressed since the issue of nanomaterials in food, drink and food packaging may be the first safety issue to attract public and media attention, and this may have an impact on 'nanotechnology as a whole. 4. Do we need more or other regulation? Any decision making process should accommodate the changing level of uncertainty. To address the uncertainties, adaptations of frameworks such as REACH may be indicated for nanomaterials. Regulation is often needed even if voluntary measures are welcome because it mitigates the effects of competition between industries. Data cannot be collected on voluntary bases for example. NIN will continue with an active stakeholder dialogue to further build on interdisciplinary relationships towards a healthy future with nanotechnology.

A randomized controlled trial of the effectiveness of a Computer-Assisted Cognitive Remediation (CACR) program in adolescents with psychosis or at high risk of psychosis: Short term and long term outcomes

The present study investigates the short- and long-term outcomes of a computer-assisted cognitive remediation (CACR) program in adolescents with psychosis or at high risk. 32 adolescents participated in a blinded 8-week randomized controlled trial of CACR treatment compared to computer games (CG). Clinical and neuropsychological evaluations were undertaken at baseline, at the end of the program and at 6-month. At the end of the program (n = 28), results indicated that visuospatial abilities (Repeatable Battery for the Assessment of Neuropsychological Status, RBANS; P = .005) improved signifi cantly more in the CACR group compared to the CG group. Furthermore, other cognitive functions (RBANS), psychotic symptoms (Positive and Negative Symptom Scale) and psychosocial functioning (Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale) improved signifi cantly, but at similar rates, in the two groups. At long term (n = 22), cognitive abilities did not demonstrated any amelioration in the control group while, in the CACR group, signifi cant long-term improvements in inhibition (Stroop; P = .040) and reasoning (Block Design Test; P = .005) were observed. In addition, symptom severity (Clinical Global Improvement) decreased signifi cantly in the control group (P = .046) and marginally in the CACR group (P = .088). To sum up, CACR can be successfully administered in this population. CACR proved to be effective over and above CG for the most intensively trained cognitive ability. Finally, on the long-term, enhanced reasoning and inhibition abilities, which are necessary to execute higher-order goals or to adapt behavior to the ever-changing environment, were observed in adolescents benefi ting from a CACR.