How to assign a likelihood ratio in a footwear mark case: an analysis and discussion in the light of R v T

This article analyses and discusses issues that pertain to the choice of relevant databases for assigning values to the components of evaluative likelihood ratio procedures at source level. Although several formal likelihood ratio developments currently exist, both case practitioners and recipients of expert information (such as judiciary) may be reluctant to consider them as a framework for evaluating scientific evidence in context. The recent ruling R v T and ensuing discussions in many forums provide illustrative examples for this. In particular, it is often felt that likelihood ratio-based reasoning amounts to an application that requires extensive quantitative information along with means for dealing with technicalities related to the algebraic formulation of these approaches. With regard to this objection, this article proposes two distinct discussions. In a first part, it is argued that, from a methodological point of view, there are additional levels of qualitative evaluation that are worth considering prior to focusing on particular numerical probability assignments. Analyses will be proposed that intend to show that, under certain assumptions, relative numerical values, as opposed to absolute values, may be sufficient to characterize a likelihood ratio for practical and pragmatic purposes. The feasibility of such qualitative considerations points out that the availability of hard numerical data is not a necessary requirement for implementing a likelihood ratio approach in practice. It is further argued that, even if numerical evaluations can be made, qualitative considerations may be valuable because they can further the understanding of the logical underpinnings of an assessment. In a second part, the article will draw a parallel to R v T by concentrating on a practical footwear mark case received at the authors' institute. This case will serve the purpose of exemplifying the possible usage of data from various sources in casework and help to discuss the difficulty associated with reconciling the depth of theoretical likelihood ratio developments and limitations in the degree to which these developments can actually be applied in practice.

Coffee and tea intake and risk of head and neck cancer: pooled analysis in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium.

BACKGROUND: Only a few studies have explored the relation between coffee and tea intake and head and neck cancers, with inconsistent results. METHODS: We pooled individual-level data from nine case-control studies of head and neck cancers, including 5,139 cases and 9,028 controls. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: Caffeinated coffee intake was inversely related with the risk of cancer of the oral cavity and pharynx: the ORs were 0.96 (95% CI, 0.94-0.98) for an increment of 1 cup per day and 0.61 (95% CI, 0.47-0.80) in drinkers of >4 cups per day versus nondrinkers. This latter estimate was consistent for different anatomic sites (OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.30-0.71 for oral cavity; OR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.41-0.82 for oropharynx/hypopharynx; and OR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.37-1.01 for oral cavity/pharynx not otherwise specified) and across strata of selected covariates. No association of caffeinated coffee drinking was found with laryngeal cancer (OR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.64-1.45 in drinkers of >4 cups per day versus nondrinkers). Data on decaffeinated coffee were too sparse for detailed analysis, but indicated no increased risk. Tea intake was not associated with head and neck cancer risk (OR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.89-1.11 for drinkers versus nondrinkers). CONCLUSIONS: This pooled analysis of case-control studies supports the hypothesis of an inverse association between caffeinated coffee drinking and risk of cancer of the oral cavity and pharynx. IMPACT: Given widespread use of coffee and the relatively high incidence and low survival of head and neck cancers, the observed inverse association may have appreciable public health relevance.

Meta-analysis identifies 13 new loci associated with waist-hip ratio and reveals sexual dimorphism in the genetic basis of fat distribution.

Waist-hip ratio (WHR) is a measure of body fat distribution and a predictor of metabolic consequences independent of overall adiposity. WHR is heritable, but few genetic variants influencing this trait have been identified. We conducted a meta-analysis of 32 genome-wide association studies for WHR adjusted for body mass index (comprising up to 77,167 participants), following up 16 loci in an additional 29 studies (comprising up to 113,636 subjects). We identified 13 new loci in or near RSPO3, VEGFA, TBX15-WARS2, NFE2L3, GRB14, DNM3-PIGC, ITPR2-SSPN, LY86, HOXC13, ADAMTS9, ZNRF3-KREMEN1, NISCH-STAB1 and CPEB4 (P = 1.9 × 10⁻⁹ to P = 1.8 × 10⁻⁴⁰) and the known signal at LYPLAL1. Seven of these loci exhibited marked sexual dimorphism, all with a stronger effect on WHR in women than men (P for sex difference = 1.9 × 10⁻³ to P = 1.2 × 10⁻&supl;³). These findings provide evidence for multiple loci that modulate body fat distribution independent of overall adiposity and reveal strong gene-by-sex interactions.

The Perception of the Elements in the Hindu Traditions

The essays in this volume, contributions to an international symposium at the University of Lausanne in June 1998, represent the perception of the elements as a framework for the history of religions (Maya Burger), exemplified by the Hindu traditions. Each element is treated by a specialist in a different academic field in order to bring out a variety of approaches important to the discipline of the history of religion. Ether (akasa) was assigned to philosophy (Wilhelm Halbfass), wind to the history of religion (Bettina Bäumer), fire to classical philology (Peter Schreiner), water to a specialist on Indian medicine (Arion Rosu) and earth to anthropology (Gabriella Eichinger Ferro-Luzzi, specializing on Tamil literature). Les articles du présent volume, issus d'un symposium international ayant eu lieu à l'Université de Lausanne en juin 1998, présentent la perception des éléments comme base de recherche de l'étude des religions (Maya Burger), exemplifiée à l'aide des traditions hindoues. Chaque élément est traité par un spécialiste d'une discipline académique particulière dans le but de souligner la variété des approches nécessaire à la discipline d'histoire des religions. L'éther (akasa) a été considéré sous l'angle de la philosophie (Wilhelm Halbfass), le vent sous celui de l'histoire des religions (Bettina Bäumer), le feu sous celui de la philologie classique (Peter Schreiner), l'eau par un spécialiste de la médecine indienne (Arion Rosu) et la terre sous l'angle de l'anthropologie (Gabriella Eichinger Ferro-Luzzi, se concentrant sur la littérature tamoule).

The Perception of the Elements in the Hindu Traditions

The essays in this volume, contributions to an international symposium at the University of Lausanne in June 1998, represent the perception of the elements as a framework for the history of religions (Maya Burger), exemplified by the Hindu traditions. Each element is treated by a specialist in a different academic field in order to bring out a variety of approaches important to the discipline of the history of religion. Ether (akasa) was assigned to philosophy (Wilhelm Halbfass), wind to the history of religion (Bettina Bäumer), fire to classical philology (Peter Schreiner), water to a specialist on Indian medicine (Arion Rosu) and earth to anthropology (Gabriella Eichinger Ferro-Luzzi, specializing on Tamil literature). Les articles du présent volume, issus d'un symposium international ayant eu lieu à l'Université de Lausanne en juin 1998, présentent la perception des éléments comme base de recherche de l'étude des religions (Maya Burger), exemplifiée à l'aide des traditions hindoues. Chaque élément est traité par un spécialiste d'une discipline académique particulière dans le but de souligner la variété des approches nécessaire à la discipline d'histoire des religions. L'éther (akasa) a été considéré sous l'angle de la philosophie (Wilhelm Halbfass), le vent sous celui de l'histoire des religions (Bettina Bäumer), le feu sous celui de la philologie classique (Peter Schreiner), l'eau par un spécialiste de la médecine indienne (Arion Rosu) et la terre sous l'angle de l'anthropologie (Gabriella Eichinger Ferro-Luzzi, se concentrant sur la littérature tamoule).

Sex-specific selective pressures on body mass in the greater white-toothed shrew, Crocidura russula.

The direction, intensity and shape of viability-, sexual- and fecundity selection on body mass were investigated in a natural population of the greater white-toothed shrew (Crocidura russula), combining parentage assignment through molecular techniques and mark-recapture data over several generations. A highly significant stabilizing viability selection was found in both sexes, presumably stemming from the constraints imposed by their insectivorous habits and high metabolic costs. Sexual selection, directional in both sexes, was twice as large in males than in females. Our results suggest that body mass matters in this context by facilitating the acquisition and defense of a breeding territory. No fecundity selection could be detected. The direction of sexual size dimorphism (SSD) was in agreement with the observed pattern of selective pressures: males were heavier than females, because of stronger sexual selection. SSD intensity, however, was low compared with other mammals, because of the low level of polygyny, the active role of females in territory defense and the intensity of stabilizing viability selection.

The duration of prograde garnet crystallization in the UHP eclogites at Lago di Cignana, Italy

The distinct core-to-rim zonation of different REEs in garnet in metamorphic rocks, specifically Sm relative to Lu, suggests that Sm-Nd and Lu-Hf isochron ages will record different times along a prograde garnet growth history. Therefore, REE zonations in garnet must be measured in order to correctly interpret the isochron ages in terms of the garnet growth interval, which could span several m.y. New REE profiles, garnet crystal size distributions, and garnet growth modeling, combined with previously published Sm-Nd and Lu-Hf geochronology on a UHP eclogite of the Zermatt-Saas Fee (ZSF) ophiolite, Lago di Cignana (Italy), demonstrate that prograde garnet growth of this sample occurred over a similar to 30 to 40 m.y. interval. Relative to peak metamorphism at 38 to 40 Ma, garnet growth is estimated to have begun at similar to 11 to 14 kbar pressure at similar to 70 to 80 Ma. Although such a protracted garnet growth interval is surprising, this is supported by plate tectonic reconstructions which suggest that subduction of the Liguro-Piemont ocean occurred through slow and oblique convergence. These results demonstrate that REE zonations in garnet, coupled to crystal size distributions, provide a powerful means for understanding prograde metamorphic paths when combined with Sm-Nd and Lu-Hf geochronology. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A novel protein family mediates Casparian strip formation in the endodermis.

Polarized epithelia are fundamental to multicellular life. In animal epithelia, conserved junctional complexes establish membrane diffusion barriers, cellular adherence and sealing of the extracellular space. Plant cellular barriers are of independent evolutionary origin. The root endodermis strongly resembles a polarized epithelium and functions in nutrient uptake and stress resistance. Its defining features are the Casparian strips, belts of specialized cell wall material that generate an extracellular diffusion barrier. The mechanisms localizing Casparian strips are unknown. Here we identify and characterize a family of transmembrane proteins of previously unknown function. These 'CASPs' (Casparian strip membrane domain proteins) specifically mark a membrane domain that predicts the formation of Casparian strips. CASP1 displays numerous features required for a constituent of a plant junctional complex: it forms complexes with other CASPs; it becomes immobile upon localization; and it sediments like a large polymer. CASP double mutants display disorganized Casparian strips, demonstrating a role for CASPs in structuring and localizing this cell wall modification. To our knowledge, CASPs are the first molecular factors that are shown to establish a plasma membrane and extracellular diffusion barrier in plants, and represent a novel way of epithelial barrier formation in eukaryotes.

Inbreeding in the greater white-toothed shrew, Crocidura russula.

We combined mark-and-recapture studies with genetic techniques of parentage assignment to evaluate the interactions between mating, dispersal, and inbreeding, in a free-ranging population of Crocidura russula. We found a pattern of limited and female-biased dispersal, followed by random mating within individual neighborhoods. This results in significant inbreeding at the population level: mating among relatives occurs more often than random, and F(IT) analyses reveal significant deficits in heterozygotes. However, related mating partners were not less fecund, and inbred offspring had no lower lifetime reproductive output. Power analyses show these negative results to be quite robust. Absence of phenotypic evidence of inbreeding depression might result from a history of purging: local populations are small and undergo disequilibrium gene dynamics. Dispersal is likely caused by local saturation and (re)colonization of empty breeding sites, rather than inbreeding avoidance.

Genomewide association study using a high-density single nucleotide polymorphism array and case-control design identifies a novel essential hypertension susceptibility locus in the promoter region of endothelial NO synthase.

Essential hypertension is a multifactorial disorder and is the main risk factor for renal and cardiovascular complications. The research on the genetics of hypertension has been frustrated by the small predictive value of the discovered genetic variants. The HYPERGENES Project investigated associations between genetic variants and essential hypertension pursuing a 2-stage study by recruiting cases and controls from extensively characterized cohorts recruited over many years in different European regions. The discovery phase consisted of 1865 cases and 1750 controls genotyped with 1M Illumina array. Best hits were followed up in a validation panel of 1385 cases and 1246 controls that were genotyped with a custom array of 14 055 markers. We identified a new hypertension susceptibility locus (rs3918226) in the promoter region of the endothelial NO synthase gene (odds ratio: 1.54 [95% CI: 1.37-1.73]; combined P=2.58 · 10(-13)). A meta-analysis, using other in silico/de novo genotyping data for a total of 21 714 subjects, resulted in an overall odds ratio of 1.34 (95% CI: 1.25-1.44; P=1.032 · 10(-14)). The quantitative analysis on a population-based sample revealed an effect size of 1.91 (95% CI: 0.16-3.66) for systolic and 1.40 (95% CI: 0.25-2.55) for diastolic blood pressure. We identified in silico a potential binding site for ETS transcription factors directly next to rs3918226, suggesting a potential modulation of endothelial NO synthase expression. Biological evidence links endothelial NO synthase with hypertension, because it is a critical mediator of cardiovascular homeostasis and blood pressure control via vascular tone regulation. This finding supports the hypothesis that there may be a causal genetic variation at this locus.

Transcriptome and membrane fatty acid analyses reveal different strategies for responding to permeating and non-permeating solutes in the bacterium Sphingomonas wittichii.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Sphingomonas wittichii strain RW1 can completely oxidize dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans, which are persistent contaminants of soils and sediments. For successful application in soil bioremediation systems, strain RW1 must cope with fluctuations in water availability, or water potential. Thus far, however, little is known about the adaptive strategies used by Sphingomonas bacteria to respond to changes in water potential. To improve our understanding, strain RW1 was perturbed with either the cell-permeating solute sodium chloride or the non-permeating solute polyethylene glycol with a molecular weight of 8000 (PEG8000). These solutes are assumed to simulate the solute and matric components of the total water potential, respectively. The responses to these perturbations were then assessed and compared using a combination of growth assays, transcriptome profiling, and membrane fatty acid analyses. RESULTS: Under conditions producing a similar decrease in water potential but without effect on growth rate, there was only a limited shared response to perturbation with sodium chloride or PEG8000. This shared response included the increased expression of genes involved with trehalose and exopolysaccharide biosynthesis and the reduced expression of genes involved with flagella biosynthesis. Mostly, the responses to perturbation with sodium chloride or PEG8000 were very different. Only sodium chloride triggered the increased expression of two ECF-type RNA polymerase sigma factors and the differential expression of many genes involved with outer membrane and amino acid metabolism. In contrast, only PEG8000 triggered the increased expression of a heat shock-type RNA polymerase sigma factor along with many genes involved with protein turnover and repair. Membrane fatty acid analyses further corroborated these differences. The degree of saturation of membrane fatty acids increased after perturbation with sodium chloride but had the opposite effect and decreased after perturbation with PEG8000. CONCLUSIONS: A combination of growth assays, transcriptome profiling, and membrane fatty acid analyses revealed that permeating and non-permeating solutes trigger different adaptive responses in strain RW1, suggesting these solutes affect cells in fundamentally different ways. Future work is now needed that connects these responses with the responses observed in more realistic scenarios of soil desiccation.