La reconversion du quartier Gare/Crêt-Taconnet à Neuchâtel: réflexions sur la densification qualifiée

La reconversion des friches industrielles des secteurs de gare est prometteuse dans l'optique d'un développement urbain dense alternatif à l'étalement. Elles constituent en effet une réserve foncière centrale et bien desservie par les transports publics. La densification de ces terrains stratégiques ne pourra cependant freiner l'étalement urbain qu'à condition d'offrir un cadre de vie attractif pour l'habitat. Notre hypothèse est que l'engagement des pouvoirs publics est déterminant pour assurer cette densification qualifiée. Brown fields regeneration in railway station areas is particularly promising in the perspective of a compact urban development alternative to sprawl. They indeed constitute a central land stock which is well connected to public transportation networks. However, the densification of these strategic lands will make it possible to moderate urban sprawl only by providing an attractive environment for residential activities. Our hypothesis is that public authorities involvement is decisive to ensure such a qualified densification. Die Umnutzung von Industriebrachen in Bahnhofsarealen scheint viel versprechend im Hinblick auf eine Stadtentwicklung nach innen als Alternative zur Ausbreitung. Zentralgelegen, stellen diese ungenutzten Flächen eine strategische Bodenreserve dar, welche gut an das öffentliche Verkehrsmittelnetz angeschlossen ist. Ihre Verdichtung kann jedoch die Stadtausbreitung nur eindämmen unter der Bedingung, einen attraktiven Lebens- und Wohnraum zu bieten. Unsere Hypothese lautet, dass das Ausmass des Engagements der öffentlichen Hand bestimmend ist um diese qualitative Verdichtung sicherzustellen.

Radio frequency identification (RFID) of dentures in long-term care facilities.

STATEMENT OF PROBLEM: The difficulty of identifying the ownership of lost dentures when found is a common and expensive problem in long term care facilities (LTCFs) and hospitals. PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the reliability of using radiofrequency identification (RFID) in the identification of dentures for LTCF residents after 3 and 6 months. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Thirty-eight residents of 2 LTCFs in Switzerland agreed to participate after providing informed consent. The tag was programmed with the family and first names of the participants and then inserted in the dentures. After placement of the tag, the information was read. A second and third assessment to review the functioning of the tag occurred at 3 and 6 months, and defective tags (if present) were reported and replaced. The data were analyzed with descriptive statistics. RESULTS: At the 3-month assessment of 34 residents (63 tags) 1 tag was unreadable and 62 tags (98.2%) were operational. At 6 months, the tags of 27 of the enrolled residents (50 tags) were available for review. No examined tag was defective at this time period. CONCLUSIONS: Within the limits of this study (number of patients, 6-month time span) RFID appears to be a reliable method of tracking and identifying dentures, with only 1 of 65 devices being unreadable at 3 months and 100% of 50 initially placed tags being readable at the end of the trial.

Bimodal magmatism as a consequence of the post-collisional readjustment of the thickened Variscan continental lithosphere (Aiguilles Rouges - Mont Blanc Massifs, Western Alps)

High Precision U-Pb zircon and monazite dating in the Aiguilles Rouges-Mont Blanc area allowed discrimination of three short-lived bimodal magmatic pulses: the early 332 Ma Mg-K Pormenaz monzonite and associated 331 Ma peraluminous Montees Pelissier monzogranite; the 307 Ma cordierite-bearing peraluminous Vallorcine and Fully intrusions; and the 303 Fe-K Mont Blanc syenogranite. All intruded syntectonically along major-scale transcurrent faults at a time when the substratum was experiencing tectonic exhumation, active erosion recorded in detrital basins and isothermal decompression melting dated at 327-320 Ma. Mantle activity and magma mixing are evidenced in all plutons by coeval mafic enclaves, stocks and synplutonic dykes. Both crustal and mantle sources evolve through time, pointing to an increasingly warm continental crust and juvenile asthenospheric mantle sources. This overall tectono-magmatic evolution is interpreted in a scenario of post-collisional restoration to normal size of a thickened continental lithosphere. The latter re-equilibrates through delamination and/or erosion of its mantle root and tectonic exhumation/erosion in an overall extensional regime. Extension is related to either gravitational collapse or back-are extension of a distant subduction zone.

The Rapakivi texture of feldspars in a plutonic mixing environment - A dissolution-recrystallization process

A new hypothesis is formulated to explain the development of rapakivi texture in and around the mafic enclaves of porphyritic granitoids, i.e. in environments involving magma mixing and mingling. The formation of a plagioclase mantle around alkali feldspar megacrysts is attributed to the localized presence of a melt resulting from the reaction of these megacrysts, with host hybrid magma with which they are in disequilibrium. This feldspathic melt adheres to the resorbed crystals and is virtually immiscible with the surrounding magma. Its composition is modified in terms of the relative proportions of K2O, Na2O, and CaO through selective diffusion of these elements, thus allowing the specific crystallization of andesine. With decreasing temperature, the K-feldspar, again stable, crystallizes along with the plagioclase, leading to mixed mantle structures.

Decreased PM10 exposure attenuates age-related lung function decline: genetic variants in p53, p21, and CCND1 modify this effect.

BACKGROUND: Decreasing exposure to airborne particulates was previously associated with reduced age-related decline in lung function. However, whether the benefit from improved air quality depends on genetic background is not known. Recent evidence points to the involvement of the genes p53 and p21 and of the cell cycle control gene cyclin D1 (CCND1) in the response of bronchial cells to air pollution. OBJECTIVE: We determined in 4,326 participants of the Swiss Cohort Study on Air Pollution and Lung and Heart Diseases in Adults (SAPALDIA) whether four single-nucleotide polymorphisms in three genes [CCND1 (rs9344 [P242P], rs667515), p53 (rs1042522 [R72P]), and p21 (rs1801270 [S31R])] modified the previously observed attenuation of the decline in the forced expiratory flow between 25% and 75% of the forced vital capacity (FEF(25-75)) associated with improved air quality. METHODS: Subjects of the prospective population-based SAPALDIA cohort were assessed in 1991 and 2002 by spirometry, questionnaires, and biological sample collection for genotyping. We assigned spatially resolved concentrations of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < or = 10 microm (PM(10)) to each participant's residential history 12 months before the baseline and follow-up assessments. RESULTS: The effect of diminishing PM(10) exposure on FEF(25-75) decline appeared to be modified by p53 R72P, CCND1 P242P, and CCND1 rs667515. For example, a 10-microg/m(3) decline in average PM(10) exposure over an 11-year period attenuated the average annual decline in FEF(25-75) by 21.33 mL/year (95% confidence interval, 10.57-32.08) among participants homozygous for the CCND1 (P242P) GG genotype, by 13.72 mL/year (5.38-22.06) among GA genotypes, and by 6.00 mL/year (-4.54 to 16.54) among AA genotypes. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that cell cycle control genes may modify the degree to which improved air quality may benefit respiratory function in adults.

Hypersensitivity pneumonitis secondary to lovebirds: a new cause of bird fancier's disease.

Hypersensitivity pneumonitis (HP) is an immunologically mediated lung disease due to the repetitive inhalation of antigens. Most new cases arise from residential exposures, notably to birds, and are thus more difficult to recognise. The present authors report a 59-yr-old male who complained of dyspnoea and cough while being treated with amiodarone. Pulmonary function tests revealed restriction and obstruction with low diffusing lung capacity for carbon monoxide and partial pressure of oxygen. A high-resolution computed tomography chest scan and bronchoalveolar lavage showed diffuse bilateral ground-glass attenuation and lymphocytic alveolitis, respectively. Initial diagnosis was amiodarone pulmonary toxicity, but because of a rapidly favourable evolution, this diagnosis was questioned. A careful environmental history revealed a close contact with lovebirds shortly before the onset of symptoms. Precipitins were strongly positive against lovebird droppings, but were negative against other avian antigens. The patient was diagnosed with hypersensitivity pneumonitis to lovebirds. Avoidance of lovebirds and steroid treatment led to rapid improvement. The present observation identifies a new causative agent for hypersensitivity pneumonitis and highlights the importance of a thorough environmental history and of searching for precipitins against antigens directly extracted from the patient's environment. These two procedures should allow a more precise classification of some cases of pneumonitis, and thus might avoid progression of active undiagnosed hypersensitivity pneumonitis to irreversible fibrosis or emphysema.

Analyse comparée de régimes institutionnels de gestion des réseaux urbains de l'eau en station touristique de montagne : les cas de Crans-Montana (Suisse) et de Morzine-Avoriaz (France)

La station touristique représente un espace urbain consacré principalement au tourisme, tout en comprenant également une population résidente permanente. Du point de vue de la gestion des réseaux urbains de l'eau, cette caractéristique induit pour ce type de lieu des usages propres à tout espace urbain mais également des spécificités liées à la forte fluctuation saisonnière de la population résidente ou encore à la présence d'usages particuliers tels que l'irrigation des golfs, la production de neige artificielle ou le thermalisme. Dès lors, la planification de l'approvisionnement est délicate et peu prévisible. Ces difficultés sont renforcées par le fait que les concentrations temporelles de la demande coïncident généralement avec des périodes de stress hydrique notable. Dans le cas de stations balnéaires, les pics de fréquentation interviennent en général durant l'été lorsque la ressource en eau est peu disponible. Le problème est similaire dans les stations touristiques de montagne où l'eau est généralement indisponible car stockée sous forme de neige durant les mois de forte fréquentation. De plus, ces difficultés sont souvent renforcées par la localisation géographique des stations touristiques, fréquemment situées dans des espaces sensibles du point de vue de la ressource en eau, avec des situations de pénuries temporelles, voire structurelles. Ces problématiques propres à la plupart des stations touristiques mènent souvent à de fortes rivalités entre, d'une part, les différents usages touristiques de la ressource, et d'autre part, les usages autochtones et touristiques. Les particularités liées au tourisme tendent ainsi à renforcer les rivalités entre différents types de secteurs d'activité (approvisionnement en eau potable, tourisme, hydroélectricité, enneigement artificiel, irrigation, etc.). Ces différents usages de la ressource mis en concurrence nécessitent dès lors la mise en oeuvre de réglementations structurées à travers des politiques publiques ainsi que des droits de propriété et selon des composantes nationales, régionales et locales ; soit un cadre institutionnel que nous proposons d'appeler Régime Institutionnel de Ressource (RIR) (Knoepfel et al. 2001, 2007). A travers cette thèse de doctorat, nous répondons à différentes questions de recherche. Nous tentons d'abord de comprendre comment ces différents RIR sont-ils mis en oeuvre dans le cadre d'espaces touristiques ? Comment ceux-ci sont-ils concrétisés par les acteurs et quels sont leurs effets en termes de durabilité technique, environnementale, sociale et économique des réseaux urbains de l'eau ? Nous questionnons ensuite les effets du tourisme sur la gestion des infrastructures de réseau à l'échelle de la station touristique et de son bassin versant et nous interrogeons sur les effets du tourisme en termes de gestion des eaux urbaines. Nous portons notre attention sur deux stations touristiques situées dans deux contextes institutionnels différents (Crans-Montana en Suisse et Morzine-Avoriaz en France) et y étudions trois types de régimes institutionnels en particulier : la régie directe (gestion publique), l'affermage (gestion déléguée) et la gestion privée des infrastructures. Les résultats de cette thèse de doctorat indiquent tout d'abord dans quelle mesure le tourisme modifie de façon significative la perception et les modalités de gestion de la ressource en eau et des infrastructures. Ils montrent ensuite que l'espace fonctionnel de la gestion de ces infrastructures correspond rarement aux limites du réseau hydrographique naturel et quelles en sont les implications en termes de durabilité. Enfin, la comparaison de différents régimes institutionnels révèle les forces et les faiblesses de chaque modèle de gestion dans le cas spécifique des stations touristiques et également les différentes solutions adoptées localement pour la mise en oeuvre d'un arrangement institutionnel permettant un usage plus ou moins durable des infrastructures de réseau et du réseau hydrographique naturel. - Tourism resort represents an urban area mainly dedicated to tourism while including at the same time a permanent residential population. From the point of view of urban water networks, this characteristic induces a strong seasonal fluctuation of residential population and involves special water uses such as golf irrigation, production of artificial snow or functioning of thermal baths. Therefore, water supply planning can be tricky and difficult to predict. These difficulties are reinforced by the fact that temporary concentrations of water demand coïncidé generally with periods of water stress. In the case of seaside resorts, frequenting peaks arise in general during summer when water resource is less available. The problem is similar in mountainous tourist resorts where water is generally unavailable as it is stored as snow during months of highest frequenting. Furthermore, these difficulties are often reinforced by resorts' geographical localisations, which are often situated in sensitive areas in terms of temporary or structural water shortages. These problematic issues often lead to strong rivalries between tourists' water uses on the one hand, and between locals and tourists uses on the other hand. Thus, features of tourism tend to reinforce rivalries between different sectors of activity (supply of drinking water, tourism, hydroelectricity, artificial snow, irrigation, etc.). These different and competing water uses need the implementation of rules structured through public policies and property rights and through national, regional and local legal components; We propose to call this framework as an Institutional Resource Regime (IRR) (Knoepfel et al. 2001, 2007, 2009). Through this PhD thesis, we answer different research questions. We firstly aim to understand how those different IRR are implemented within tourism spaces? How do actors materialize them and what are their effects in term of technical, environmental, social and economical sustainability of urban water networks? We then, investigate effects of tourism on water networks infrastructures' management at the scale of the tourist resort and its river basin. We focus our attention on two tourist resorts situated within two different institutional contexts (Crans-Montana, Switzerland and Morzine-Avoriaz, France) and study three types of institutional regime in particular: public, delegated and private management of infrastructures. Results of this PhD thesis indicate firstly how tourism modifies in a significant way the perception and management modalities of water resource and infrastructures. Results also show that functional space of infrastructures management rarely matches with the limits of the natural river basin and indicates what it means in terms of sustainability. Finally, the comparison of different institutional regimes reveals the strengths and weakness of each management model in the specific case of tourist resorts and shows the different solutions in locally implementing an institutional arrangement for a more or less sustainable management of network infrastructures and natural water system.

Institutional regimes for sustainable collective housing stocks

The influence of public policy, property rights and contracts on the sustainability of residential buildings remains largely unknown. This research will use the analytical framework of the housing institutional regime to study the sustainability over time of the housing stock. We aim to produce an inventory of the housing institutional regime in Switzerland, a comparison with the German and Catalan regimes, and policy suggestions to achieve a better sustainability of the housing stock.

Evidence-based Economic Policy - Three Essays in Applied Microeconometrics

Over thirty years ago, Leamer (1983) - among many others - expressed doubts about the quality and usefulness of empirical analyses for the economic profession by stating that "hardly anyone takes data analyses seriously. Or perhaps more accurately, hardly anyone takes anyone else's data analyses seriously" (p.37). Improvements in data quality, more robust estimation methods and the evolution of better research designs seem to make that assertion no longer justifiable (see Angrist and Pischke (2010) for a recent response to Leamer's essay). The economic profes- sion and policy makers alike often rely on empirical evidence as a means to investigate policy relevant questions. The approach of using scientifically rigorous and systematic evidence to identify policies and programs that are capable of improving policy-relevant outcomes is known under the increasingly popular notion of evidence-based policy. Evidence-based economic policy often relies on randomized or quasi-natural experiments in order to identify causal effects of policies. These can require relatively strong assumptions or raise concerns of external validity. In the context of this thesis, potential concerns are for example endogeneity of policy reforms with respect to the business cycle in the first chapter, the trade-off between precision and bias in the regression-discontinuity setting in chapter 2 or non-representativeness of the sample due to self-selection in chapter 3. While the identification strategies are very useful to gain insights into the causal effects of specific policy questions, transforming the evidence into concrete policy conclusions can be challenging. Policy develop- ment should therefore rely on the systematic evidence of a whole body of research on a specific policy question rather than on a single analysis. In this sense, this thesis cannot and should not be viewed as a comprehensive analysis of specific policy issues but rather as a first step towards a better understanding of certain aspects of a policy question. The thesis applies new and innovative identification strategies to policy-relevant and topical questions in the fields of labor economics and behavioral environmental economics. Each chapter relies on a different identification strategy. In the first chapter, we employ a difference- in-differences approach to exploit the quasi-experimental change in the entitlement of the max- imum unemployment benefit duration to identify the medium-run effects of reduced benefit durations on post-unemployment outcomes. Shortening benefit duration carries a double- dividend: It generates fiscal benefits without deteriorating the quality of job-matches. On the contrary, shortened benefit durations improve medium-run earnings and employment possibly through containing the negative effects of skill depreciation or stigmatization. While the first chapter provides only indirect evidence on the underlying behavioral channels, in the second chapter I develop a novel approach that allows to learn about the relative impor- tance of the two key margins of job search - reservation wage choice and search effort. In the framework of a standard non-stationary job search model, I show how the exit rate from un- employment can be decomposed in a way that is informative on reservation wage movements over the unemployment spell. The empirical analysis relies on a sharp discontinuity in unem- ployment benefit entitlement, which can be exploited in a regression-discontinuity approach to identify the effects of extended benefit durations on unemployment and survivor functions. I find evidence that calls for an important role of reservation wage choices for job search be- havior. This can have direct implications for the optimal design of unemployment insurance policies. The third chapter - while thematically detached from the other chapters - addresses one of the major policy challenges of the 21st century: climate change and resource consumption. Many governments have recently put energy efficiency on top of their agendas. While pricing instru- ments aimed at regulating the energy demand have often been found to be short-lived and difficult to enforce politically, the focus of energy conservation programs has shifted towards behavioral approaches - such as provision of information or social norm feedback. The third chapter describes a randomized controlled field experiment in which we discuss the effective- ness of different types of feedback on residential electricity consumption. We find that detailed and real-time feedback caused persistent electricity reductions on the order of 3 to 5 % of daily electricity consumption. Also social norm information can generate substantial electricity sav- ings when designed appropriately. The findings suggest that behavioral approaches constitute effective and relatively cheap way of improving residential energy-efficiency.

Activity and exploratory behavior after lesions of the medial entorhinal cortex in the woodmouse (Apodemus sylvaticus).

The effects of bilateral electrolytic lesions of the entorhinal cortex were studied in male adult woodmice. Experiments were designed to allow separate analysis of the basal activity level and exploratory behavior. Activity recording was conducted in three situations: (a) 24-hr wheel running in the home cage pre- and postoperatively; (b) 24-hr activity composition in a large enclosure over 4 days, 5 to 9 days postoperatively; and (c) sequence and duration of visits in a residential plus maze 11 to 14 days postoperatively. Medial entorhinal cortex lesion involving the para- and presubiculum increased the 24-hr amount of movements in the enclosure (b) without increasing wheel running in any situation (a or b). This lesion also enhanced the locomotor reactivity to being introduced into the plus maze and impaired exploratory behavior. This last effect was equally apparent when the whole situation was new or when part of the familiar maze was modified. Lesioned woodmice did notice the new element but did not show active focalization of their behavior on that element. Data showed that lesion induced hyperactivity and changes of exploratory behavior were not necessarily associated. Novelty detection was performed but it is not clear now on what information this discrimination was based.

Effect of Emotion and Personality on Deviation from Purely Rational Decision-Making

Human decision-making has consistently demonstrated deviation from "pure" rationality. Emotions are a primary driver of human actions and the current study investigates how perceived emotions and personality traits may affect decision-making during the Ultimatum Game (UG). We manipulated emotions by showing images with emotional connotation while participants decided how to split money with a second player. Event-related potentials (ERPs) from scalp electrodes were recorded during the whole decision-making process. We observed significant differences in the activity of central and frontal areas when participants offered money with respect to when they accepted or rejected an offer. We found that participants were more likely to offer a higher amount of money when making their decision in association with negative emotions. Furthermore, participants were more likely to accept offers when making their decision in association with positive emotions. Honest, conscientious, and introverted participants were more likely to accept offers. Our results suggest that factors others than a rational strategy may predict economic decision-making in the UG.

Changing landscapes of Switzerland: assessing effects of historic and future land uses and land covers on the occurrence of selected butterfly species

Summary Landscapes are continuously changing. Natural forces of change such as heavy rainfall and fires can exert lasting influences on their physical form. However, changes related to human activities have often shaped landscapes more distinctly. In Western Europe, especially modern agricultural practices and the expanse of overbuilt land have left their marks in the landscapes since the middle of the 20th century. In the recent years men realised that mare and more changes that were formerly attributed to natural forces might indirectly be the result of their own action. Perhaps the most striking landscape change indirectly driven by human activity we can witness in these days is the large withdrawal of Alpine glaciers. Together with the landscapes also habitats of animal and plant species have undergone vast and sometimes rapid changes that have been hold responsible for the ongoing loss of biodiversity. Thereby, still little knowledge is available about probable effects of the rate of landscape change on species persistence and disappearance. Therefore, the development and speed of land use/land cover in the Swiss communes between the 1950s and 1990s were reconstructed using 10 parameters from agriculture and housing censuses, and were further correlated with changes in butterfly species occurrences. Cluster analyses were used to detect spatial patterns of change on broad spatial scales. Thereby, clusters of communes showing similar changes or transformation rates were identified for single decades and put into a temporally dynamic sequence. The obtained picture on the changes showed a prevalent replacement of non-intensive agriculture by intensive practices, a strong spreading of urban communes around city centres, and transitions towards larger farm sizes in the mountainous areas. Increasing transformation rates toward more intensive agricultural managements were especially found until the 1970s, whereas afterwards the trends were commonly negative. However, transformation rates representing the development of residential buildings showed positive courses at any time. The analyses concerning the butterfly species showed that grassland species reacted sensitively to the density of livestock in the communes. This might indicate the augmented use of dry grasslands as cattle pastures that show altered plant species compositions. Furthermore, these species also decreased in communes where farms with an agricultural area >5ha have disappeared. The species of the wetland habitats were favoured in communes with smaller fractions of agricultural areas and lower densities of large farms (>10ha) but did not show any correlation to transformation rates. It was concluded from these analyses that transformation rates might influence species disappearance to a certain extent but that states of the environmental predictors might generally outweigh the importance of the corresponding rates. Information on the current distribution of species is evident for nature conservation. Planning authorities that define priority areas for species protection or examine and authorise construction projects need to know about the spatial distribution of species. Hence, models that simulate the potential spatial distribution of species have become important decision tools. The underlying statistical analyses such as the widely used generalised linear models (GLM) often rely on binary species presence-absence data. However, often only species presence data have been colleted, especially for vagrant, rare or cryptic species such as butterflies or reptiles. Modellers have thus introduced randomly selected absence data to design distribution models. Yet, selecting false absence data might bias the model results. Therefore, we investigated several strategies to select more reliable absence data to model the distribution of butterfly species based on historical distribution data. The results showed that better models were obtained when historical data from longer time periods were considered. Furthermore, model performance was additionally increased when long-term data of species that show similar habitat requirements as the modelled species were used. This successful methodological approach was further applied to assess consequences of future landscape changes on the occurrence of butterfly species inhabiting dry grasslands or wetlands. These habitat types have been subjected to strong deterioration in the recent decades, what makes their protection a future mission. Four spatially explicit scenarios that described (i) ongoing land use changes as observed between 1985 and 1997, (ii) liberalised agricultural markets, and (iii) slightly and (iv) strongly lowered agricultural production provided probable directions of landscape change. Current species-environment relationships were derived from a statistical model and used to predict future occurrence probabilities in six major biogeographical regions in Switzerland, comprising the Jura Mountains, the Plateau, the Northern and Southern Alps, as well as the Western and Eastern Central Alps. The main results were that dry grasslands species profited from lowered agricultural production, whereas overgrowth of open areas in the liberalisation scenario might impair species occurrence. The wetland species mostly responded with decreases in their occurrence probabilities in the scenarios, due to a loss of their preferred habitat. Further analyses about factors currently influencing species occurrences confirmed anthropogenic causes such as urbanisation, abandonment of open land, and agricultural intensification. Hence, landscape planning should pay more attention to these forces in areas currently inhabited by these butterfly species to enable sustainable species persistence. In this thesis historical data were intensively used to reconstruct past developments and to make them useful for current investigations. Yet, the availability of historical data and the analyses on broader spatial scales has often limited the explanatory power of the conducted analyses. Meaningful descriptors of former habitat characteristics and abundant species distribution data are generally sparse, especially for fine scale analyses. However, this situation can be ameliorated by broadening the extent of the study site and the used grain size, as was done in this thesis by considering the whole of Switzerland with its communes. Nevertheless, current monitoring projects and data recording techniques are promising data sources that might allow more detailed analyses about effects of long-term species reactions on landscape changes in the near future. This work, however, also showed the value of historical species distribution data as for example their potential to locate still unknown species occurrences. The results might therefore contribute to further research activities that investigate current and future species distributions considering the immense richness of historical distribution data. Résumé Les paysages changent continuellement. Des farces naturelles comme des pluies violentes ou des feux peuvent avoir une influence durable sur la forme du paysage. Cependant, les changements attribués aux activités humaines ont souvent modelé les paysages plus profondément. Depuis les années 1950 surtout, les pratiques agricoles modernes ou l'expansion des surfaces d'habitat et d'infrastructure ont caractérisé le développement du paysage en Europe de l'Ouest. Ces dernières années, l'homme a commencé à réaliser que beaucoup de changements «naturels » pourraient indirectement résulter de ses propres activités. Le changement de paysage le plus apparent dont nous sommes témoins de nos jours est probablement l'immense retraite des glaciers alpins. Avec les paysages, les habitats des animaux et des plantes ont aussi été exposés à des changements vastes et quelquefois rapides, tenus pour coresponsable de la continuelle diminution de la biodiversité. Cependant, nous savons peu des effets probables de la rapidité des changements du paysage sur la persistance et la disparition des espèces. Le développement et la rapidité du changement de l'utilisation et de la couverture du sol dans les communes suisses entre les années 50 et 90 ont donc été reconstruits au moyen de 10 variables issues des recensements agricoles et résidentiels et ont été corrélés avec des changements de présence des papillons diurnes. Des analyses de groupes (Cluster analyses) ont été utilisées pour détecter des arrangements spatiaux de changements à l'échelle de la Suisse. Des communes avec des changements ou rapidités comparables ont été délimitées pour des décennies séparées et ont été placées en séquence temporelle, en rendrent une certaine dynamique du changement. Les résultats ont montré un remplacement répandu d'une agriculture extensive des pratiques intensives, une forte expansion des faubourgs urbains autour des grandes cités et des transitions vers de plus grandes surfaces d'exploitation dans les Alpes. Dans le cas des exploitations agricoles, des taux de changement croissants ont été observés jusqu'aux années 70, alors que la tendance a généralement été inversée dans les années suivantes. Par contre, la vitesse de construction des nouvelles maisons a montré des courbes positives pendant les 50 années. Les analyses sur la réaction des papillons diurnes ont montré que les espèces des prairies sèches supportaient une grande densité de bétail. Il est possible que dans ces communes beaucoup des prairies sèches aient été fertilisées et utilisées comme pâturages, qui ont une autre composition floristique. De plus, les espèces ont diminué dans les communes caractérisées par une rapide perte des fermes avec une surface cultivable supérieure à 5 ha. Les espèces des marais ont été favorisées dans des communes avec peu de surface cultivable et peu de grandes fermes, mais n'ont pas réagi aux taux de changement. Il en a donc été conclu que la rapidité des changements pourrait expliquer les disparitions d'espèces dans certains cas, mais que les variables prédictives qui expriment des états pourraient être des descripteurs plus importants. Des informations sur la distribution récente des espèces sont importantes par rapport aux mesures pour la conservation de la nature. Pour des autorités occupées à définir des zones de protection prioritaires ou à autoriser des projets de construction, ces informations sont indispensables. Les modèles de distribution spatiale d'espèces sont donc devenus des moyens de décision importants. Les méthodes statistiques courantes comme les modèles linéaires généralisés (GLM) demandent des données de présence et d'absence des espèces. Cependant, souvent seules les données de présence sont disponibles, surtout pour les animaux migrants, rares ou cryptiques comme des papillons ou des reptiles. C'est pourquoi certains modélisateurs ont choisi des absences au hasard, avec le risque d'influencer le résultat en choisissant des fausses absences. Nous avons établi plusieurs stratégies, basées sur des données de distribution historique des papillons diurnes, pour sélectionner des absences plus fiables. Les résultats ont démontré que de meilleurs modèles pouvaient être obtenus lorsque les données proviennent des périodes de temps plus longues. En plus, la performance des modèles a pu être augmentée en considérant des données de distribution à long terme d'espèces qui occupent des habitats similaires à ceux de l'espèce cible. Vu le succès de cette stratégie, elle a été utilisée pour évaluer les effets potentiels des changements de paysage futurs sur la distribution des papillons des prairies sèches et marais, deux habitats qui ont souffert de graves détériorations. Quatre scénarios spatialement explicites, décrivant (i) l'extrapolation des changements de l'utilisation de sol tels qu'observés entre 1985 et 1997, (ii) la libéralisation des marchés agricoles, et une production agricole (iii) légèrement amoindrie et (iv) fortement diminuée, ont été utilisés pour générer des directions de changement probables. Les relations actuelles entre la distribution des espèces et l'environnement ont été déterminées par le biais des modèles statistiques et ont été utilisées pour calculer des probabilités de présence selon les scénarios dans six régions biogéographiques majeures de la Suisse, comportant le Jura, le Plateau, les Alpes du Nord, du Sud, centrales orientales et centrales occidentales. Les résultats principaux ont montré que les espèces des prairies sèches pourraient profiter d'une diminution de la production agricole, mais qu'elles pourraient aussi disparaître à cause de l'embroussaillement des terres ouvertes dû à la libéralisation des marchés agricoles. La probabilité de présence des espèces de marais a décrû à cause d'une perte générale des habitats favorables. De plus, les analyses ont confirmé que des causes humaines comme l'urbanisation, l'abandon des terres ouvertes et l'intensification de l'agriculture affectent actuellement ces espèces. Ainsi ces forces devraient être mieux prises en compte lors de planifications paysagères, pour que ces papillons diurnes puissent survivre dans leurs habitats actuels. Dans ce travail de thèse, des données historiques ont été intensivement utilisées pour reconstruire des développements anciens et pour les rendre utiles à des recherches contemporaines. Cependant, la disponibilité des données historiques et les analyses à grande échelle ont souvent limité le pouvoir explicatif des analyses. Des descripteurs pertinents pour caractériser les habitats anciens et des données suffisantes sur la distribution des espèces sont généralement rares, spécialement pour des analyses à des échelles fores. Cette situation peut être améliorée en augmentant l'étendue du site d'étude et la résolution, comme il a été fait dans cette thèse en considérant toute la Suisse avec ses communes. Cependant, les récents projets de surveillance et les techniques de collecte de données sont des sources prometteuses, qui pourraient permettre des analyses plus détaillés sur les réactions à long terme des espèces aux changements de paysage dans le futur. Ce travail a aussi montré la valeur des anciennes données de distribution, par exemple leur potentiel pour aider à localiser des' présences d'espèces encore inconnues. Les résultats peuvent contribuer à des activités de recherche à venir, qui étudieraient les distributions récentes ou futures d'espèces en considérant l'immense richesse des données de distribution historiques.

Le « milieu » homosexuel suisse durant la Seconde Guerre mondiale

Cette contribution s'intéresse à l'existence de lieux de sociabilité helvétiques entre hommes qualifiés comme étant homosexuels ou encore homoérotes selon le point de vue militant. Dans un pays resté neutre au cours de la Seconde Guerre mondiale et replié sur lui-même par « Défense nationale », fédéral depuis 1848 en unifiant trois cultures linguistiques, la capitale économique, Zürich, ressort sans conteste comme étant celle de l'homosexualité. Aussi cet article expose-t-il les conditions pénales expliquant l'existence dans cette ville de l'unique association homosexuelle qui va perdurer au-delà du conflit mondial. Il analyse aussi son mode de fonctionnement et revendicatif excluant progressivement les femmes de son sein. Toutefois, le monde associatif ne représente que la surface des événements, et cette étude s'attache à montrer les fortes différences existant selon les régions : la Zürich de la guerre ne s'est pas substituée au Berlin d'avant 1933, et les contrées latines, bien que profondément influencées par le code Napoléon, n'apparaissent pas comme des enclaves de liberté. Tolérance sociale relative et discrétion volontaire des intéressés, tels sont les mécanismes de cette histoire.