Overcoming the rare species modelling paradox: test of a novel hierarchical framework with an Iberian endemic plant

Rare species have restricted geographic ranges, habitat specialization, and/or small population sizes. Datasets on rare species distribution usually have few observations, limited spatial accuracy and lack of valid absences; conversely they provide comprehensive views of species distributions allowing to realistically capture most of their realized environmental niche. Rare species are the most in need of predictive distribution modelling but also the most difficult to model. We refer to this contrast as the "rare species modelling paradox" and propose as a solution developing modelling approaches that deal with a sufficiently large set of predictors, ensuring that statistical models aren't overfitted. Our novel approach fulfils this condition by fitting a large number of bivariate models and averaging them with a weighted ensemble approach. We further propose that this ensemble forecasting is conducted within a hierarchic multi-scale framework. We present two ensemble models for a test species, one at regional and one at local scale, each based on the combination of 630 models. In both cases, we obtained excellent spatial projections, unusual when modelling rare species. Model results highlight, from a statistically sound approach, the effects of multiple drivers in a same modelling framework and at two distinct scales. From this added information, regional models can support accurate forecasts of range dynamics under climate change scenarios, whereas local models allow the assessment of isolated or synergistic impacts of changes in multiple predictors. This novel framework provides a baseline for adaptive conservation, management and monitoring of rare species at distinct spatial and temporal scales.

Mineralogical, petrographic and geochemical characterisation of white and coloured Iberian marbles in the context of the provenancing of some artefacts from Thamusida (Kenitra, Morocco)

A multi-analytical study has been carried out on a collection of white and coloured Iberian marbles. A total of 135 marble specimens were collected in Spain and Portugal from the Betic chain (Alhaurin de la Torre, Mijas, Macael), Ossa Morena (Alconera, Almaden de la Plata and Viana do Alentejo), and the Estremoz Anticline (Bencatel, Borba and Estremoz) areas. X-ray diffractometry and carbon and oxygen stable isotope analysis were carried out on these samples; 38 samples were also investigated by optical and scanning electron microscopy. The results provide a set of diagnostic parameters that allow discriminating the sampled marble quarries. The carbonate minerals composition is distinctive for the Mijas and Alhaurin de la Torre marbles; the isotopic analysis allows discriminating also between these two dolomitic marble quarries. The Ossa Morena and Estremoz Anticline marbles share a similar stable isotope composition; the accessory mineral content, the maximum grain size (MGS) and the fabric are particularly useful in the distinction between them. In the framework of archaeometric provenance studies on Thamusida (Kenitra, Morocco) Roman marble artefacts, a specific comparison between this new Iberian database and archaeological findings has been carried out. The hypothesis of commercial exchanges between the Iberian regions and Roman Morocco is supported by the results of the provenance study, which suggested the Almaden de la Plata and Mijas quarries as possible sources of raw materials for the production of archaeological artefacts.

Carbon-isotope stratigraphy and ammonite faunal turnover for the Middle Jurassic in the Southern Iberian palaeomargin

Variations in the stable carbon-isotope ratio of marine and continental sediments can reflect changes in sink and flux modifications of the palaeocarbon cycle. Here we report carbon-isotope compositions of Middle Jurassic marine carbonates from the Betic Cordillera (southern Spain), which represents an ideal region to link the stable carbon-isotope curves directly to ammonite zones and subzones, and thereby for the first time achieve an accurate chronostratigraphic calibration. The five sections studied represent basin and high swell deposits of the Southern Iberian palaeomargin. We find a similar delta C-13 of carbonates between different oceanic areas, suggesting a homogeneous carbon-isotope oceanic reservoir through the Middle Jurassic. The Aalenian-Bajocian transition is a critical period in ammonite evolution; hence the Early Jurassic fauna are replaced by new ammonite families which become dominant throughout the Middle and Late Jurassic. For this reason, we compared the delta C-13 values of carbonates with ammonite diversity and extinction rates at different taxonomical levels in order to explore the possible relationship between the carbon cycle and ammonite evolution. The carbon-isotope values of carbonates are not exactly linearly correlated with the extinction rate and ammonite diversity, but the main faunal turnovers follow minimum delta C-13 values, where extinct taxa are replaced by new ones. Likewise, radiation episodes are associated with increasing delta C-13 values and with transgressive sea-level rise. All these data support the idea that perturbations in the global carbon cycle reflect rapid palaeoenvironmental changes. We made detailed analyses of these faunal turnovers, using them as a proxy to identify major palaeoenvironmental crises in their ecosystems forced by modification in the carbon cycle. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

A New Species of Sand Racer, Psammodromus (Squamata: Lacertidae), from the Western Iberian Peninsula

A new species of lacertid lizard of the genus Psammodromus is described from the Iberian Peninsula. Genetic and recently published phenotypic data support the differentiation of Psammodromus hispanicus into three, and not as previously suggested two, distinct lineages. Age estimates, lineage allopatry, the lack of mitochondrial and nuclear haplotype sharing between lineages, ecological niche divergence, and the current biogeographic distribution, indicated that the three lineages correspond to three independent species. Here, we describe a new species, Psammodromus occidentalis sp. n., which is genetically different from the other sand racers and differentiated by the number of femoral pores, number of throat scales, snout shape, head ratio, green nuptial coloration, and number of supralabial scales below the subocular scale. We also propose to upgrade the two previously recognized subspecies, Psammodromus hispanicus hispanicus Fitzinger, 1826 from central Spain and Psammodromus hispanicus edwardsianus (Dugès, 1829) from eastern Spain, to the species level: Psammodromus hispanicus stat. nov. and Psammodromus edwardsianus stat. nov. Given that the holotype of Psammodromus hispanicus was lost, we designate a neotype. We also analysed museum specimens of P. blanci, P. microdactylus and P. algirus to describe differentiation of the Psammodromus hispanicus lineages/species from their closest relatives.

Population structure of three Psammodromus species in the Iberian Peninsula.

The knowledge of a species' population structure is essential for the development of adequate conservation actions as well as for the understanding of its evolution. The population structure is unknown in all species of the Genus Psammodromus, including the Western Sand Racer (Psammodromus occidentalis; a recently described species), the Edward's Sand Racer (P. edwardsianus) and the Spanish Sand Racer (P. hispanicus). In this article, the genetic variability and population structure of Psammodromus edwardsianus, P. hispanicus, and P. occidentalis were studied in the Iberian Peninsula covering their natural geographic distribution. Mitochondrial DNA showed genetically different units in all species with higher genetic variability in their southern populations (latitudinal variation). Genetic differentiation was different among species and contrasted to those of species with similar characteristics. Our results therefore highlight the importance of species-specific studies analysing population structure.

Threats from climate change to terrestrial vertebrate hotspots in europe.

We identified hotspots of terrestrial vertebrate species diversity in Europe and adjacent islands. Moreover, we assessed the extent to which by the end of the 21(st) century such hotspots will be exposed to average monthly temperature and precipitation patterns which can be regarded as extreme if compared to the climate experienced during 1950-2000. In particular, we considered the entire European sub-continent plus Turkey and a total of 1149 species of terrestrial vertebrates. For each species, we developed species-specific expert-based distribution models (validated against field data) which we used to calculate species richness maps for mammals, breeding birds, amphibians, and reptiles. Considering four global circulation model outputs and three emission scenarios, we generated an index of risk of exposure to extreme climates, and we used a bivariate local Moran's I to identify the areas with a significant association between hotspots of diversity and high risk of exposure to extreme climates. Our results outline that the Mediterranean basin represents both an important hotspot for biodiversity and especially for threatened species for all taxa. In particular, the Iberian and Italian peninsulas host particularly high species richness as measured over all groups, while the eastern Mediterranean basin is particularly rich in amphibians and reptiles; the islands (both Macaronesian and Mediterranean) host the highest richness of threatened species for all taxa occurs. Our results suggest that the main hotspots of biodiversity for terrestrial vertebrates may be extensively influenced by the climate change projected to occur over the coming decades, especially in the Mediterranean bioregion, posing serious concerns for biodiversity conservation.

Subduction and obduction processes in the Swiss Alps

The significance of the Brianconnais domain in the Alpine orogen is reviewed in the light of data concerning its collision with the active Adriatic margin and the passive Helvetic margin. The Brianconnais which formerly belonged to the Iberian plate, was located on the northern margin of the Alpine Tethys (Liguro-Piemont ocean) since its opening in the early-Middle Jurassic. Together with the Iberian plate the Brianconnais terrane was separated from the European plate in the Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous, following the northern Atlantic, Bay of Biscay, Valais ocean opening. This was accompanied by the onset of subduction along the northern margin of Adria and the closure of the Alpine Tethys. Stratigraphic and metamorphic data regarding this subduction and the geohistory of the Brianconnais allows the scenario of subduction-obduction processes during the Late Cretaceous-early Tertiary in the eastern and western Alps to be specified. HP-LT metamorphism record a long-lasting history of oceanic subduction-accretion, followed in the Middle Eocene by the incorporation of the Brianconnais as an exotic terrane into the accretionary prism. Middle to Late Eocene cooling ages of the Brianconnais basement and the presence of pelagic, anorogenic sedimentation lasting until the Middle Eocene on the Brianconnais preclude any sort of collision before that time between this domain and the active Adria margin or the Helvetic margin. This is confirmed by plate reconstructions constrained by magnetic anomalies in the Atlantic domain. Only a small percentage of the former Brianconnais domain was obducted, most of the crust and lithospheric roots were subducted. This applies also to domains formerly belonging to the southern Alpine Tethys margin (Austroalpine-inner Carpathian domain). It is proposed that there was a single Palaeogene subduction zone responsible for the Alpine orogen formation (from northern Spain to the East Carpathians), with the exception of a short-lived Late Cretaceous partial closure of the Valais ocean. Subduction in the western Tethyan domain originated during the closure of the Meliata ocean during the Jurassic incorporating the Austroalpine-Carpathian domain as terranes during the Cretaceous. The subduction zone propagated into the northern margin of Adria and then to the northern margin of the Iberian plate, where it gave birth to the Pyrenean-Provencal orogenic belt. This implies the absence of a separated Cretaceous subduction zone within the Austro-Carpathian Penninic ocean. Collision of Iberia with Europe forced the subduction to jump to the SE margin of Iberia in the Eocene, creating the Apenninic orogenic wedge and inverting the vergence of subduction from south- to north-directed. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

THE USE OF SIMULATIONS IN EVOLUTIONARY POPULATION GENETICS: APPLICATIONS ON HUMANS, OWLS AND VIRTUAL ORGANISMS

Summary (in English) Computer simulations provide a practical way to address scientific questions that would be otherwise intractable. In evolutionary biology, and in population genetics in particular, the investigation of evolutionary processes frequently involves the implementation of complex models, making simulations a particularly valuable tool in the area. In this thesis work, I explored three questions involving the geographical range expansion of populations, taking advantage of spatially explicit simulations coupled with approximate Bayesian computation. First, the neutral evolutionary history of the human spread around the world was investigated, leading to a surprisingly simple model: A straightforward diffusion process of migrations from east Africa throughout a world map with homogeneous landmasses replicated to very large extent the complex patterns observed in real human populations, suggesting a more continuous (as opposed to structured) view of the distribution of modern human genetic diversity, which may play a better role as a base model for further studies. Second, the postglacial evolution of the European barn owl, with the formation of a remarkable coat-color cline, was inspected with two rounds of simulations: (i) determine the demographic background history and (ii) test the probability of a phenotypic cline, like the one observed in the natural populations, to appear without natural selection. We verified that the modern barn owl population originated from a single Iberian refugium and that they formed their color cline, not due to neutral evolution, but with the necessary participation of selection. The third and last part of this thesis refers to a simulation-only study inspired by the barn owl case above. In this chapter, we showed that selection is, indeed, effective during range expansions and that it leaves a distinguished signature, which can then be used to detect and measure natural selection in range-expanding populations. Résumé (en français) Les simulations fournissent un moyen pratique pour répondre à des questions scientifiques qui seraient inabordable autrement. En génétique des populations, l'étude des processus évolutifs implique souvent la mise en oeuvre de modèles complexes, et les simulations sont un outil particulièrement précieux dans ce domaine. Dans cette thèse, j'ai exploré trois questions en utilisant des simulations spatialement explicites dans un cadre de calculs Bayésiens approximés (approximate Bayesian computation : ABC). Tout d'abord, l'histoire de la colonisation humaine mondiale et de l'évolution de parties neutres du génome a été étudiée grâce à un modèle étonnement simple. Un processus de diffusion des migrants de l'Afrique orientale à travers un monde avec des masses terrestres homogènes a reproduit, dans une très large mesure, les signatures génétiques complexes observées dans les populations humaines réelles. Un tel modèle continu (opposé à un modèle structuré en populations) pourrait être très utile comme modèle de base dans l'étude de génétique humaine à l'avenir. Deuxièmement, l'évolution postglaciaire d'un gradient de couleur chez l'Effraie des clocher (Tyto alba) Européenne, a été examiné avec deux séries de simulations pour : (i) déterminer l'histoire démographique de base et (ii) tester la probabilité qu'un gradient phénotypique, tel qu'observé dans les populations naturelles puisse apparaître sans sélection naturelle. Nous avons montré que la population actuelle des chouettes est sortie d'un unique refuge ibérique et que le gradient de couleur ne peux pas s'être formé de manière neutre (sans l'action de la sélection naturelle). La troisième partie de cette thèse se réfère à une étude par simulations inspirée par l'étude de l'Effraie. Dans ce dernier chapitre, nous avons montré que la sélection est, en effet, aussi efficace dans les cas d'expansion d'aire de distribution et qu'elle laisse une signature unique, qui peut être utilisée pour la détecter et estimer sa force.

Regional variation in sex ratios and sex allocation in androdioecious Mercurialis annua.

In androdioecious metapopulations, where males co-occur with hermaphrodites, the absence of males from certain populations or regions may be explained by locally high selfing rates, high hermaphrodite outcross siring success (e.g. due to high pollen production by hermaphrodites), or to stochastic processes (e.g. the failure of males to invade populations or regions following colonization or range expansion by hermaphrodites). In the Iberian Peninsula and Morocco, the presence of males with hermaphrodites in the wind-pollinated androdioecious plant Mercurialis annua (Euphorbiaceae) varies both among populations within relatively small regions and among regions, with some regions lacking males from all populations. The species is known to have expanded its range into the Iberian Peninsula from a southern refugium. To account for variation in male presence in M. annua, we test the following hypotheses: (1) that males are absent in areas where plant densities are lower, because selfing rates should be correspondingly higher; (2) that males are absent in areas where hermaphrodites produce more pollen; and (3) that males are absent in areas where there is an elevated proportion of populations in which plant density and hermaphrodite pollen production disfavour their invasion. We found support for predictions two and three in Morocco (the putative Pleistocene refugium for M. annua) but no support for any hypothesis in Iberia (the expanded range). Our results are partially consistent with a hypothesis of sex-allocation equilibrium for populations in Morocco; in Iberia, the absence of males from large geographical regions is more consistent with a model of sex-ratio evolution in a metapopulation with recurrent population turnover. Our study points to the role of both frequency-dependent selection and contingencies imposed by colonization during range expansions and in metapopulations.

Integrative analyses of speciation and divergence in Psammodromus hispanicus (Squamata: Lacertidae).

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Genetic, phenotypic and ecological divergence within a lineage is the result of past and ongoing evolutionary processes, which lead ultimately to diversification and speciation. Integrative analyses allow linking diversification to geological, climatic, and ecological events, and thus disentangling the relative importance of different evolutionary drivers in generating and maintaining current species richness. RESULTS: Here, we use phylogenetic, phenotypic, geographic, and environmental data to investigate diversification in the Spanish sand racer (Psammodromus hispanicus). Phylogenetic, molecular clock dating, and phenotypic analyses show that P. hispanicus consists of three lineages. One lineage from Western Spain diverged 8.3 (2.9-14.7) Mya from the ancestor of Psammodromus hispanicus edwardsianus and P. hispanicus hispanicus Central lineage. The latter diverged 4.8 (1.5-8.7) Mya. Molecular clock dating, together with population genetic analyses, indicate that the three lineages experienced northward range expansions from southern Iberian refugia during Pleistocene glacial periods. Ecological niche modelling shows that suitable habitat of the Western lineage and P. h. edwardsianus overlap over vast areas, but that a barrier may hinder dispersal and genetic mixing of populations of both lineages. P. h. hispanicus Central lineage inhabits an ecological niche that overlaps marginally with the other two lineages. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide evidence for divergence in allopatry and niche conservatism between the Western lineage and the ancestor of P. h. edwardsianus and P. h. hispanicus Central lineage, whereas they suggest that niche divergence is involved in the origin of the latter two lineages. Both processes were temporally separated and may be responsible for the here documented genetic and phenotypic diversity of P. hispanicus. The temporal pattern is in line with those proposed for other animal lineages. It suggests that geographic isolation and vicariance played an important role in the early diversification of the group, and that lineage diversification was further amplified through ecological divergence.

Cryptic diversity among Western Palearctic tree frogs: postglacial range expansion, range limits, and secondary contacts of three European tree frog lineages (Hyla arborea group).

We characterize divergence times, intraspecific diversity and distributions for recently recognized lineages within the Hyla arborea species group, based on mitochondrial and nuclear sequences from 160 localities spanning its whole distribution. Lineages of H. arborea, H. orientalis, H. molleri have at least Pliocene age, supporting species level divergence. The genetically uniform Iberian H. molleri, although largely isolated by the Pyrenees, is parapatric to H. arborea, with evidence for successful hybridization in a small Aquitanian corridor (southwestern France), where the distribution also overlaps with H. meridionalis. The genetically uniform H. arborea, spread from Crete to Brittany, exhibits molecular signatures of a postglacial range expansion. It meets different mtDNA clades of H. orientalis in NE-Greece, along the Carpathians, and in Poland along the Vistula River (there including hybridization). The East-European H. orientalis is strongly structured genetically. Five geographic mitochondrial clades are recognized, with a molecular signature of postglacial range expansions for the clade that reached the most northern latitudes. Hybridization with H. savignyi is suggested in southwestern Turkey. Thus, cryptic diversity in these Pliocene Hyla lineages covers three extremes: a genetically poor, quasi-Iberian endemic (H. molleri), a more uniform species distributed from the Balkans to Western Europe (H. arborea), and a well-structured Asia Minor-Eastern European species (H. orientalis).

The Toarcian in the Subbetic basin (southern Spain): Bio-events (ammonite and calcareous nannofossils) and carbon-isotope stratigraphy

A detailed carbon-isotope stratigraphic study for the uppermost Pliensbachian lowermost Aalenian interval in the Median Subbetic palaeogeographic domain (External zones of the Betic Cordillera, southern Spain) has been carried out. During the Early Jurassic, the Median Subbetic, which represents a typical basin of the Hispanic Corridor connecting the Tethys and the Eastern Pacific, was located in the westernmost Tethys. The analyzed sections encompass the entire Toarcian stage as represented in the southern Iberian palaeomargin. Rocks are mainly rhythmic sequences of grey marls and marly limestones containing a rich ammonite fauna, nannofossils, and benthic foraminifers-all these provide an accurate biostratigraphic control. The lower and upper Toarcian boundaries are well represented in some of these sections and therefore represent optimal sites to link the carbon-isotope curves to ammonite zones, and to nannofossil events. delta C-13 values of bulk carbonates from the different localities of the Subbetic basin have similar variations from the uppermost Pliensbachian to the lowermost Aalenian, suggesting changes in the original DIC carbon isotope composition along the Hispanic corridor. The transition from Pliensbachian to Toarcian is marked by increasing delta C-13 values from similar to 12 to 2.0 parts per thousand, interrupted in the Serpentinum Zone by a negative shift concomitant with the Toarcian oceanic anoxic event (T-OAE), with the major ammonite extinction event of the Toarcian, and an important turnover of calcareous nannoplankton. The negative shift observed in the Serpentinum Zone confirms the global perturbation of the carbon cycling documented along the Tethys and the palaeo-Pacific in organic material and in marine carbonates. However, the amplitude of the negative excursion (similar to - 1.5 parts per thousand) is not compatible with an isotopic homogeneous seawater DIC and/or CO2 atmospheric reservoirs. The interval from the middle to the top of the Toarcian delta C-13 shows relatively constant values, minor ammonite turnovers, and is associated with increasing diversity of calcareous nannoplankton. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pliocene and Pleistocene diversification and multiple refugia in a Eurasian shrew (Crocidura suaveolens group).

We sequenced 998 base pairs (bp) of mitochondrial DNA cytochrome b and 799 bp of nuclear gene BRCA1 in the Lesser white-toothed shrew (Crocidura suaveolens group) over its geographic range from Portugal to Japan. The aims of the study were to identify the main clades within the group and respective refugia resulting from Pleistocene glaciations. Analyses revealed the Asian lesser white-toothed shrew (C. shantungensis) as the basal clade, followed by a major branch of C. suaveolens, subdivided sensu stricto into six clades, which split-up in the Upper Pliocene and Lower Pleistocene (1.9-0.9 Myr). The largest clade, occurring over a huge range from east Europe to Mongolia, shows evidence of population expansion after a bottleneck. West European clades originated from Iberian and Italo-Balkanic refugia. In the Near East, three clades evolved in an apparent hotspot of refugia (west Turkey, south-west and south-east of the Caucasus). Most clades include specimens of different morphotypes and the validity of many taxa in the C. suaveolens group has to be re-evaluated.

Integrative analyses of speciation and divergence in Psammodromus hispanicus (Squamata: Lacertidae).

BackgroundGenetic, phenotypic and ecological divergence within a lineage is the result of past and ongoing evolutionary processes, which lead ultimately to diversification and speciation. Integrative analyses allow linking diversification to geological, climatic, and ecological events, and thus disentangling the relative importance of different evolutionary drivers in generating and maintaining current species richness.ResultsHere, we use phylogenetic, phenotypic, geographic, and environmental data to investigate diversification in the Spanish sand racer (Psammodromus hispanicus). Phylogenetic, molecular clock dating, and phenotypic analyses show that P. hispanicus consists of three lineages. One lineage from Western Spain diverged 8.3 (2.9-14.7) Mya from the ancestor of Psammodromus hispanicus edwardsianus and P. hispanicus hispanicus Central lineage. The latter diverged 4.8 (1.5-8.7) Mya. Molecular clock dating, together with population genetic analyses, indicate that the three lineages experienced northward range expansions from southern Iberian refugia during Pleistocene glacial periods. Ecological niche modelling shows that suitable habitat of the Western lineage and P. h. edwardsianus overlap over vast areas, but that a barrier may hinder dispersal and genetic mixing of populations of both lineages. P. h. hispanicus Central lineage inhabits an ecological niche that overlaps marginally with the other two lineages.ConclusionsOur results provide evidence for divergence in allopatry and niche conservatism between the Western lineage and the ancestor of P. h. edwardsianus and P. h. hispanicus Central lineage, whereas they suggest that niche divergence is involved in the origin of the latter two lineages. Both processes were temporally separated and may be responsible for the here documented genetic and phenotypic diversity of P. hispanicus. The temporal pattern is in line with those proposed for other animal lineages. It suggests that geographic isolation and vicariance played an important role in the early diversification of the group, and that lineage diversification was further amplified through ecological divergence.

Pliocene and Pleistocene diversification and multiple refugia in a Eurasian shrew (Crocidura suaveolens group).

We sequenced 998 base pairs (bp) of mitochondrial DNA cytochrome b and 799 bp of nuclear gene BRCA1 in the Lesser white-toothed shrew (Crocidura suaveolens group) over its geographic range from Portugal to Japan. The aims of the study were to identify the main clades within the group and respective refugia resulting from Pleistocene glaciations. Analyses revealed the Asian lesser white-toothed shrew (C. shantungensis) as the basal clade, followed by a major branch of C. suaveolens, subdivided sensu stricto into six clades, which split-up in the Upper Pliocene and Lower Pleistocene (1.9-0.9 Myr). The largest clade, occurring over a huge range from east Europe to Mongolia, shows evidence of population expansion after a bottleneck. West European clades originated from Iberian and Italo-Balkanic refugia. In the Near East, three clades evolved in an apparent hotspot of refugia (west Turkey, south-west and south-east of the Caucasus). Most clades include specimens of different morphotypes and the validity of many taxa in the C. suaveolens group has to be re-evaluated.