159 resultados para INDEPENDENT PREDICTOR
em Université de Lausanne, Switzerland
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Background: Infection with the hepatitis C virus (HCV) i s associatedwith hepatic iron accumulation. We performed a comprehensive analysisof serum ferritin levels and of their genetic determinants in thepathogenesis and treatment of patients with chronic hepatitis C enrolledin the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study (SCCS).Methods: Serum ferritin levels at baseline o f therapy with p egylatedinterferon-α ( PEG-IFN-α) and ribavirin or b efore liver biopsy werecorrelated with clinical features of c hronic HCV infection, includingnecroinflammatory activity (N=970), fibrosis (N=980), steatosis (N=886)and response to treatment (N=876). The association b etween highferritin levels (> median) and the endpoints w as assessed b y logisticregression. In addition, a candidate gene analysis as well as a genomewideassociation study (GWAS) of serum ferritin levels were performed.Results: S erum ferritin > sex-specific median was one of the strongestpre-treatment predictors of failure to achieve SVR (P<0.0001, OR=0.46,95% CI=0.34-0.60). This association remained highly significant in amultivariate analysis (P=0.0001, OR=0.32, 95% CI=0.18-0.57), with anodds ratio c omparable to that of IL28B g enotype, and persisted afteradjustment for duration of infection. Additional independent predictors ofnonresponse were viral load, HCV genotype, presence of diabetes, andliver fibrosis stage. Higher serum ferritin levels were also independentlyassociated with severe liver fibrosis (P<0.0001, OR=2.67, 95% CI=1.66-4.28) a nd steatosis (P=0.0034, OR=2.34, 95% CI=1.33-4.12), but n otwith necroinflammatory a ctivity (P=0.3). No significant g eneticdeterminants of serum ferritin levels were identified.Conclusions: Elevated serum ferritin levels are associated withadvanced liver fibrosis, hepatic steatosis, and poor r esponse to IFN-α-based therapy in c hronic hepatitis C, i ndependently from IL28Bgenotype.
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Subtype-dependent selection of HIV-1 reverse transcriptase resistance mutation K65R was previously observed in cell culture and small clinical investigations. We compared K65R prevalence across subtypes A, B, C, F, G, and CRF02_AG separately in a cohort of 3,076 patients on combination therapy including tenofovir. K65R selection was significantly higher in HIV-1 subtype C. This could not be explained by clinical and demographic factors in multivariate analysis, suggesting subtype sequence-specific K65R pathways.
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Introduction: Mean platelet volume (MPV) was shown to be significantly increased in patients with acute ischaemic stroke, especially in non-lacunar strokes. Moreover, some studies concluded that increased MPV is related to poor functional outcome after ischaemic stroke, although this association is still controversial. However, the determinants of MPV in patients with acute ischaemic stroke have never been investigated. Subjects and methods: We recorded the main demographic, clinical and laboratory data of consecutive patients with acute (admitted within 24 h after stroke onset) ischaemic stroke admitted in our Neurology Service between January 2003 and December 2008. MPV was generated at admission by the Sysmex XE-2100 automated cell counter (Sysmex Corporation, Kobe, Japan) from ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid blood samples stored at room temperature until measurement. The association of these parameters with MPV was investigated in univariate and multivariate analysis. Results: A total of 636 patients was included in our study. The median MPV was 10.4 ± 0.82 fL. In univariate analysis, glucose (β= 0.03, P= 0.05), serum creatinine (β= 0.002, P= 0.02), haemoglobin (β= 0.009, P < 0.001), platelet count (β=-0.002, P < 0.001) and history of arterial hypertension (β= 0.21, P= 0.005) were found to be significantly associated with MPV. In multivariate robust regression analysis, only hypertension and platelet count remained as independent determinants of MPV. Conclusions: In patients with acute ischaemic stroke, platelet count and history of hypertension are the only determinants of MPV.
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Introduction: Low brain tissue oxygen pressure (PbtO2) is associated with worse outcome in patients with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). However, it is unclear whether brain tissue hypoxia is merely a marker of injury severity or a predictor of prognosis, independent from intracranial pressure (ICP) and injury severity. Hypothesis: We hypothesized that brain tissue hypoxia was an independent predictor of outcome in patients wih severe TBI, irrespective of elevated ICP and of the severity of cerebral and systemic injury. Methods: This observational study was conducted at the Neurological ICU, Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania, an academic level I trauma center. Patients admitted with severe TBI who had PbtO2 and ICP monitoring were included in the study. PbtO2, ICP, mean arterial pressure (MAP) and cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP = MAP-ICP) were monitored continuously and recorded prospectively every 30 min. Using linear interpolation, duration and cumulative dose (area under the curve, AUC) of brain tissue hypoxia (PbtO2 < 15 mm Hg), elevated ICP >20 mm Hg and low CPP <60 mm Hg were calculated, and the association with outcome at hospital discharge, dichotomized as good (Glasgow Outcome Score [GOS] 4-5) vs. poor (GOS 1-3), was analyzed. Results: A total of 103 consecutive patients, monitored for an average of 5 days, was studied. Brain tissue hypoxia was observed in 66 (64%) patients despite ICP was < 20 mm Hg and CPP > 60 mm Hg (72 +/- 39% and 49 +/- 41% of brain hypoxic time, respectively). Compared with patients with good outcome, those with poor outcome had a longer duration of brain hypoxia (1.7 +/- 3.7 vs. 8.3 +/- 15.9 hrs, P<0.01), as well as a longer duration (11.5 +/- 16.5 vs. 21.6 +/- 29.6 hrs, P=0.03) and a greater cumulative dose (56 +/- 93 vs. 143 +/- 218 mm Hg*hrs, P<0.01) of elevated ICP. By multivariable logistic regression, admission Glasgow Coma Scale (OR, 0.83, 95% CI: 0.70-0.99, P=0.04), Marshall CT score (OR 2.42, 95% CI: 1.42-4.11, P<0.01), APACHE II (OR 1.20, 95% CI: 1.03-1.43, P=0.03), and the duration of brain tissue hypoxia (OR 1.13; 95% CI: 1.01-1.27; P=0.04) were all significantly associated with poor outcome. No independent association was found between the AUC for elevated ICP and outcome (OR 1.01, 95% CI 0.97-1.02, P=0.11) in our prospective cohort. Conclusions: In patients with severe TBI, brain tissue hypoxia is frequent, despite normal ICP and CPP, and is associated with poor outcome, independent of intracranial hypertension and the severity of cerebral and systemic injury. Our findings indicate that PbtO2 is a strong physiologic prognostic marker after TBI. Further study is warranted to examine whether PbtO2-directed therapy improves outcome in severely head-injured patients .
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In patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) precursor cell cultures (colony-forming unit cells, CFU-C) can provide an insight into the growth potential of malignant myeloid cells. In a retrospective single-center study of 73 untreated MDS patients we assessed whether CFU-C growth patterns were of prognostic value in addition to established criteria. Abnormalities were classified as qualitative (i.e. leukemic cluster growth) or quantitative (i.e. strongly reduced/absent growth). Thirty-nine patients (53%) showed leukemic growth, 26 patients (36%) had strongly reduced/absent colony growth, and 12 patients showed both. In a univariate analysis the presence of leukemic growth was associated with strongly reduced survival (at 10 years 4 vs. 34%, p = 0.004), and a high incidence of transformation to AML (76 vs. 32%, p = 0.01). Multivariate analysis identified leukemic growth as a strong and independent predictor of early death (relative risk 2.12, p = 0.03) and transformation to AML (relative risk 2.63, p = 0.04). Quantitative abnormalities had no significant impact on the disease course. CFU- C assays have significant predictive value in addition to established prognostic factors in MDS. Leukemic growth identifies a subpopulation of MDS patients with poor prognosis.
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In patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) precursor cell cultures (colony-forming unit cells, CFU-C) can provide an insight into the growth potential of malignant myeloid cells. In a retrospective single-center study of 73 untreated MDS patients we assessed whether CFU-C growth patterns were of prognostic value in addition to established criteria. Abnormalities were classified as qualitative (i.e. leukemic cluster growth) or quantitative (i.e. strongly reduced/absent growth). Thirty-nine patients (53%) showed leukemic growth, 26 patients (36%) had strongly reduced/absent colony growth, and 12 patients showed both. In a univariate analysis the presence of leukemic growth was associated with strongly reduced survival (at 10 years 4 vs. 34%, p = 0.004), and a high incidence of transformation to AML (76 vs. 32%, p = 0.01). Multivariate analysis identified leukemic growth as a strong and independent predictor of early death (relative risk 2.12, p = 0.03) and transformation to AML (relative risk 2.63, p = 0.04). Quantitative abnormalities had no significant impact on the disease course. CFU-C assays have a significant predictive value in addition to established prognostic factors in MDS. Leukemic growth identifies a subpopulation of MDS patients with poor prognosis.
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BACKGROUND: Pathological complete response (pCR) following chemotherapy is strongly associated with both breast cancer subtype and long-term survival. Within a phase III neoadjuvant chemotherapy trial, we sought to determine whether the prognostic implications of pCR, TP53 status and treatment arm (taxane versus non-taxane) differed between intrinsic subtypes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients were randomized to receive either six cycles of anthracycline-based chemotherapy or three cycles of docetaxel then three cycles of eprirubicin/docetaxel (T-ET). pCR was defined as no evidence of residual invasive cancer (or very few scattered tumour cells) in primary tumour and lymph nodes. We used a simplified intrinsic subtypes classification, as suggested by the 2011 St Gallen consensus. Interactions between pCR, TP53 status, treatment arm and intrinsic subtype on event-free survival (EFS), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) and overall survival (OS) were studied using a landmark and a two-step approach multivariate analyses. RESULTS: Sufficient data for pCR analyses were available in 1212 (65%) of 1856 patients randomized. pCR occurred in 222 of 1212 (18%) patients: 37 of 496 (7.5%) luminal A, 22 of 147 (15%) luminal B/HER2 negative, 51 of 230 (22%) luminal B/HER2 positive, 43 of 118 (36%) HER2 positive/non-luminal, 69 of 221(31%) triple negative (TN). The prognostic effect of pCR on EFS did not differ between subtypes and was an independent predictor for better EFS [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.40, P < 0.001 in favour of pCR], DMFS (HR = 0.32, P < 0.001) and OS (HR = 0.32, P < 0.001). Chemotherapy arm was an independent predictor only for EFS (HR = 0.73, P = 0.004 in favour of T-ET). The interaction between TP53, intrinsic subtypes and survival outcomes only approached statistical significance for EFS (P = 0.1). CONCLUSIONS: pCR is an independent predictor of favourable clinical outcomes in all molecular subtypes in a two-step multivariate analysis. CLINICALTRIALSGOV: EORTC 10994/BIG 1-00 Trial registration number NCT00017095.
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Background and Aims: IL28B polymorphisms, interferon (IFN)-gamma inducible protein-10 (IP-10) levels and the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) score have been reported to predict rapid (RVR) and sustained (SVR) virological response in chronic hepatitis C (CHC), but it is not known whether these factors represent independent, clinically useful predictors. The aim of the study was to assess factors (including IL28B polymorphisms, IP-10 levels and HOMA-IR score) independently predicting response to therapy in CHC under real life conditions.Methods: Multivariate analysis of factors predicting RVR and SVR in 280 consecutive, treatment-naive CHC patients treated with pegylated IFN alpha and ribavirin in a prospective multicenter study.Results: Independent predictors of RVR were HCV RNA < 400,000 IU/ml (OR11.37; 95% CI 3.03-42.6), rs12980275 AA (vs. AG/GG) (OR 7.09; 1.97-25.56) and IP-10 (OR 0.04; 0.003-0.56) in HCV genotype 1 patients and lower baseline γ-glutamyl-transferase levels (OR = 0.02; 0.0009-0.31) in HCV genotype 3 patients. Independent predictors of SVR were rs12980275 AA (OR 9.68; 3.44-27.18), age < 40 yrs (OR = 4.79; 1.50-15.34) and HCV RNA < 400,000 IU/ml (OR 2.74; 1.03-7.27) in HCV genotype 1 patients and rs12980275 AA (OR = 6.26; 1.98-19.74) and age < 40 yrs (OR 5.37; 1.54-18.75) in the 88 HCV genotype 1 patients without a RVR. RVR was by itself predictive of SVR in HCV genotype 1 patients (32 of 33, 97%; OR 33.0; 4.06-268.32) and the only independent predictor of SVR in HCV genotype 2 (OR 9.0, 1.72-46.99; p=0.009) or 3 patients (OR 7.8, 1.43-42.67; p=0.01).Conclusions: In HCV genotype 1 patients, IL28B polymorphisms, HCV RNA load and IP-10 independently predict RVR. The combination of IL28B polymorphisms, HCV RNA level and age may yield more accurate pretreatment prediction of SVR. HOMA-IR score is not associated with viral response.
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Most investigations on prognosis of status epilepticus (SE) have focused on mortality, and suggest that outcome basically depends on the etiological and biological background. However, some recent studies also suggest that SE itself could be an independent predictor of death. Conversely, very little work has been published concerning the impact of SE on cognition. As compared with a first brief epileptic seizure, an incident SE episode seems to increase the risk of developing epilepsy.
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Background: The posterior circulation Acute Stroke Prognosis Early CT Score (pc-ASPECTS) and the combined Pons-midbrain score quantify the extent of early ischemic changes in the posterior circulation. We compared the prognostic accuracy of both scores if applied to CT angiography (CTA) source images (CTA-SI) of patients in the Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study (BASICS).Methods: BASICS was a prospective, observational, multi-centre, registry of consecutive patients who presented with acute symptomatic basilar artery occlusion (BAO). Functional outcome was assessed at 1 month. We applied pc-ASPECTS and the combined Pons-midbrain score to CTA-SI by 3-reader-consensus. Readers were blinded to clinical data. We performed multivariable logistic regression analysis, adjusting for thrombolysis, baseline NIHSS score and age, and used the output to derive ROC curves to compare the ability of both scores to discriminate patients with favourable (modified Rankin Scale [mRS] scores 0-3) from patients with unfavourable (mRS scores 4-6) functional outcome.Results: We reviewed CTAs of 158 patients (64% men, mean age 65 _ 15 years, median NIHSS score 25 [0-38], median GCS score 7 [3-15], median onset-to-CTA time 234 minutes [11-7380]). At 1 month, 40 (25%) patients had a favourable outcome, 49 (31%) had an unfavourable outcome (mRS score 4-5) and 69 (44%) were deceased. Both techniques of assessing CTA-SI hypoattenuation in the posterior circulation showed equally good discriminative value in predicting final outcome (C-statistics; area under ROC curve 0.74 versus 0.75, respectively; p_0.37). Pc-ASPECTS dichotomized at _6 versus _6 was an independent predictor of favourable functional outcome (RR _ 2.2; CI95 1.1-4.7; p _ 0.034).Conclusion: Compared to the combined Pons-midbrain score, the pc-ASPECTS score has similar prognostic accuracy to identify patients with a favourable functional outcome in BASICS. Dichotomized pc-ASPECTS (_6 versus _6) is an independent predictor of favourable functional outcome in this population. Author Disclosures: V. Puetz: None. A. Khomenko: None. M.D. Hill: None. I. Dzialowski: None. P. Michel: None. C. Weimar: None. C.A.C. Wijman: None. H. Mattle: None. K. Muir: None. T. Pfefferkorn: None. D. Tanne: None. S. Engelter: None. K. Szabo: None. A. Algra: None. A.M. Demchuk: None. W.J. Schonewille: None.
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To assess the impact of admission to different hospital types on early and 1-year outcomes in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Between 1997 and 2009, 31 010 ACS patients from 76 Swiss hospitals were enrolled in the AMIS Plus registry. Large tertiary institutions with continuous (24 hour/7 day) cardiac catheterisation facilities were classified as type A hospitals, and all others as type B. For 1-year outcomes, a subgroup of patients admitted after 2005 were studied. Eleven type A hospitals admitted 15987 (52%) patients and 65 type B hospitals 15023 (48%) patients. Patients admitted into B hospitals were older, more frequently female, diabetic, hypertensive, had more severe comorbidities and more frequent non-ST segment elevation (NSTE)-ACS/unstable angina (UA). STE-ACS patients admitted into B hospitals received more thrombolysis, but less percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Crude in-hospital mortality and major adverse cardiac events (MACE) were higher in patients from B hospitals. Crude 1-year mortality of 3747 ACS patients followed up was higher in patients admitted into B hospitals, but no differences were found for MACE. After adjustment for age, risk factors, type of ACS and comorbidities, hospital type was not an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality, in-hospital MACE, 1-year MACE or mortality. Admission indicated a crude outcome in favour of hospitalisation during duty-hours while 1-year outcome could not document a significant effect. ACS patients admitted to smaller regional Swiss hospitals were older, had more severe comorbidities, more NSTE-ACS and received less intensive treatment compared with the patients initially admitted to large tertiary institutions. However, hospital type was not an independent predictor of early and mid-term outcomes in these patients. Furthermore, our data suggest that Swiss hospitals have been functioning as an efficient network for the past 12 years.
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Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a frequent arrhythmia after conventional coronary artery bypass grafting. With the advent of minimally invasive technique for left internal mammary artery-left anterior descending coronary artery (LIMA-LAD) grafting, we analyzed the incidence and the risk factors of postoperative AF in this patient population. This prospective study involves all patients undergoing isolated LIMA-LAD grafting with minimally invasive technique between January 1994 and June 2000. Twenty-four possible risk factors for postoperative AF were entered into univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Postoperative AF occurred in 21 of the 90 patients (23.3%) analyzed. Double- or triple-vessel disease was present in 12/90 patients (13.3%). On univariate analysis, right coronary artery disease (p <0.01), age (p = 0.01), and diabetes (p = 0.04) were found to be risk factors for AF. On multivariate analysis, right coronary artery disease was identified as the sole significant risk factor (p = 0.02). In this patient population, the incidence of AF after minimally invasive coronary artery bypass is in the range of that reported for conventional coronary artery bypass grafting. Right coronary artery disease was found to be an independent predictor, and this may be related to the fact that in this patient population the diseased right coronary artery was not revascularized at the time of the surgical procedure. For the same reason, this risk factor may find a broader application to noncardiac thoracic surgery.
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Background Delirium is an independent predictor of increased length of stay, mortality, and treatment costs in critical care patients. Its incidence may be underestimated or overestimated if delirium is assessed by using subjective clinical impression alone rather than an objective instrument. Objectives To determine frequency of discrepancies between subjective and objective delirium monitoring. Methods An observational cohort study was performed in a surgical-cardiosurgical 31-bed intensive care unit of a university hospital. Patients' delirium status was rated daily by bedside nurses on the basis of subjective individual clinical impressions and by medical students on the basis of scores on the objective Confusion Assessment Method for the Intensive Care Unit. Results Of 160 patients suitable for analysis, 38.8% (n = 62) had delirium according to objective criteria at some time during their stay in the intensive care unit. A total of 436 paired observations were analyzed. Delirium was diagnosed in 26.1% of observations (n = 114) with the objective method. This percentage included 6.4% (n = 28) in whom delirium was not recognized via subjective criteria. According to subjective criteria, delirium was present in 29.4% of paired observations (n = 128), including 9.6% (n = 42) with no objective indications of delirium. A total of 8 patients with no evidence of delirium according to the objective criteria were prescribed haloperidol and lorazepam because the subjective method indicated they had delirium. Conclusions Use of objective criteria helped detect delirium in more patients and also identified patients mistakenly thought to have delirium who actually did not meet objective criteria for diagnosis of the condition.
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BACKGROUND: The ASTRAL score was recently shown to reliably predict three-month functional outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke. AIM: The study aims to investigate whether information from multimodal imaging increases ASTRAL score's accuracy. METHODS: All patients registered in the ASTRAL registry until March 2011 were included. In multivariate logistic-regression analyses, we added covariates derived from parenchymal, vascular, and perfusion imaging to the 6-parameter model of the ASTRAL score. If a specific imaging covariate remained an independent predictor of three-month modified Rankin score > 2, the area-under-the-curve (AUC) of this new model was calculated and compared with ASTRAL score's AUC. We also performed similar logistic regression analyses in arbitrarily chosen patient subgroups. RESULTS: When added to the ASTRAL score, the following covariates on admission computed tomography/magnetic resonance imaging-based multimodal imaging were not significant predictors of outcome: any stroke-related acute lesion, any nonstroke-related lesions, chronic/subacute stroke, leukoaraiosis, significant arterial pathology in ischemic territory on computed tomography angiography/magnetic resonance angiography/Doppler, significant intracranial arterial pathology in ischemic territory, and focal hypoperfusion on perfusion-computed tomography. The Alberta Stroke Program Early CT score on plain imaging and any significant extracranial arterial pathology on computed tomography angiography/magnetic resonance angiography/Doppler were independent predictors of outcome (odds ratio: 0·93, 95% CI: 0·87-0·99 and odds ratio: 1·49, 95% CI: 1·08-2·05, respectively) but did not increase ASTRAL score's AUC (0·849 vs. 0·850, and 0·8563 vs. 0·8564, respectively). In exploratory analyses in subgroups of different prognosis, age or stroke severity, no covariate was found to increase ASTRAL score's AUC, either. CONCLUSIONS: The addition of information derived from multimodal imaging does not increase ASTRAL score's accuracy to predict functional outcome despite having an independent prognostic value. More selected radiological parameters applied in specific subgroups of stroke patients may add prognostic value of multimodal imaging.
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BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate the influence of deep sternal wound infection on long-term survival following cardiac surgery. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In our institutional database we retrospectively evaluated medical records of 4732 adult patients who received open-heart surgery from January 1995 through December 2005. The predictive factors for DSWI were determined using logistic regression analysis. Then, each patient with deep sternal wound infection (DSWI) was matched with 2 controls without DSWI, according to the risk factors identified previously. After checking balance resulting from matching, short-term mortality was compared between groups using a paired test, and long-term survival was compared using Kaplan-Meier analysis and a Cox proportional hazard model. RESULTS: Overall, 4732 records were analyzed. The mean age of the investigated population was 69.3±12.8 years. DSWI occurred in 74 (1.56%) patients. Significant independent predictive factors for deep sternal infections were active smoking (OR 2.19, CI95 1.35-3.53, p=0.001), obesity (OR 1.96, CI95 1.20-3.21, p=0.007), and insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (OR 2.09, CI95 1.05-10.06, p=0.016). Mean follow-up in the matched set was 125 months, IQR 99-162. After matching, in-hospital mortality was higher in the DSWI group (8.1% vs. 2.7% p=0.03), but DSWI was not an independent predictor of long-term survival (adjusted HR 1.5, CI95 0.7-3.2, p=0.33). CONCLUSIONS: The results presented in this report clearly show that post-sternotomy deep wound infection does not influence long-term survival in an adult general cardio-surgical patient population.