Species distribution models for conservation-oriented studies in Switzerland : filling data and tools gaps

SUMMARYSpecies distribution models (SDMs) represent nowadays an essential tool in the research fields of ecology and conservation biology. By combining observations of species occurrence or abundance with information on the environmental characteristic of the observation sites, they can provide information on the ecology of species, predict their distributions across the landscape or extrapolate them to other spatial or time frames. The advent of SDMs, supported by geographic information systems (GIS), new developments in statistical models and constantly increasing computational capacities, has revolutionized the way ecologists can comprehend species distributions in their environment. SDMs have brought the tool that allows describing species realized niches across a multivariate environmental space and predict their spatial distribution. Predictions, in the form of probabilistic maps showing the potential distribution of the species, are an irreplaceable mean to inform every single unit of a territory about its biodiversity potential. SDMs and the corresponding spatial predictions can be used to plan conservation actions for particular species, to design field surveys, to assess the risks related to the spread of invasive species, to select reserve locations and design reserve networks, and ultimately, to forecast distributional changes according to scenarios of climate and/or land use change.By assessing the effect of several factors on model performance and on the accuracy of spatial predictions, this thesis aims at improving techniques and data available for distribution modelling and at providing the best possible information to conservation managers to support their decisions and action plans for the conservation of biodiversity in Switzerland and beyond. Several monitoring programs have been put in place from the national to the global scale, and different sources of data now exist and start to be available to researchers who want to model species distribution. However, because of the lack of means, data are often not gathered at an appropriate resolution, are sampled only over limited areas, are not spatially explicit or do not provide a sound biological information. A typical example of this is data on 'habitat' (sensu biota). Even though this is essential information for an effective conservation planning, it often has to be approximated from land use, the closest available information. Moreover, data are often not sampled according to an established sampling design, which can lead to biased samples and consequently to spurious modelling results. Understanding the sources of variability linked to the different phases of the modelling process and their importance is crucial in order to evaluate the final distribution maps that are to be used for conservation purposes.The research presented in this thesis was essentially conducted within the framework of the Landspot Project, a project supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation. The main goal of the project was to assess the possible contribution of pre-modelled 'habitat' units to model the distribution of animal species, in particular butterfly species, across Switzerland. While pursuing this goal, different aspects of data quality, sampling design and modelling process were addressed and improved, and implications for conservation discussed. The main 'habitat' units considered in this thesis are grassland and forest communities of natural and anthropogenic origin as defined in the typology of habitats for Switzerland. These communities are mainly defined at the phytosociological level of the alliance. For the time being, no comprehensive map of such communities is available at the national scale and at fine resolution. As a first step, it was therefore necessary to create distribution models and maps for these communities across Switzerland and thus to gather and collect the necessary data. In order to reach this first objective, several new developments were necessary such as the definition of expert models, the classification of the Swiss territory in environmental domains, the design of an environmentally stratified sampling of the target vegetation units across Switzerland, the development of a database integrating a decision-support system assisting in the classification of the relevés, and the downscaling of the land use/cover data from 100 m to 25 m resolution.The main contributions of this thesis to the discipline of species distribution modelling (SDM) are assembled in four main scientific papers. In the first, published in Journal of Riogeography different issues related to the modelling process itself are investigated. First is assessed the effect of five different stepwise selection methods on model performance, stability and parsimony, using data of the forest inventory of State of Vaud. In the same paper are also assessed: the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5 prior to model calibration; the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences; four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation; and finally, the effect of integrating predictor interactions. Results allowed to specifically enhance the GRASP tool (Generalized Regression Analysis and Spatial Predictions) that now incorporates new selection methods and the possibility of dealing with interactions among predictors as well as spatial autocorrelation. The contribution of different sources of remotely sensed information to species distribution models was also assessed. The second paper (to be submitted) explores the combined effects of sample size and data post-stratification on the accuracy of models using data on grassland distribution across Switzerland collected within the framework of the Landspot project and supplemented with other important vegetation databases. For the stratification of the data, different spatial frameworks were compared. In particular, environmental stratification by Swiss Environmental Domains was compared to geographical stratification either by biogeographic regions or political states (cantons). The third paper (to be submitted) assesses the contribution of pre- modelled vegetation communities to the modelling of fauna. It is a two-steps approach that combines the disciplines of community ecology and spatial ecology and integrates their corresponding concepts of habitat. First are modelled vegetation communities per se and then these 'habitat' units are used in order to model animal species habitat. A case study is presented with grassland communities and butterfly species. Different ways of integrating vegetation information in the models of butterfly distribution were also evaluated. Finally, a glimpse to climate change is given in the fourth paper, recently published in Ecological Modelling. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for analysing range shifts, namely a catalogue of the possible patterns of change in the distribution of a species along elevational or other environmental gradients and an improved quantitative methodology to identify and objectively describe these patterns. The methodology was developed using data from the Swiss national common breeding bird survey and the article presents results concerning the observed shifts in the elevational distribution of breeding birds in Switzerland.The overall objective of this thesis is to improve species distribution models as potential inputs for different conservation tools (e.g. red lists, ecological networks, risk assessment of the spread of invasive species, vulnerability assessment in the context of climate change). While no conservation issues or tools are directly tested in this thesis, the importance of the proposed improvements made in species distribution modelling is discussed in the context of the selection of reserve networks.RESUMELes modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) représentent aujourd'hui un outil essentiel dans les domaines de recherche de l'écologie et de la biologie de la conservation. En combinant les observations de la présence des espèces ou de leur abondance avec des informations sur les caractéristiques environnementales des sites d'observation, ces modèles peuvent fournir des informations sur l'écologie des espèces, prédire leur distribution à travers le paysage ou l'extrapoler dans l'espace et le temps. Le déploiement des SDMs, soutenu par les systèmes d'information géographique (SIG), les nouveaux développements dans les modèles statistiques, ainsi que la constante augmentation des capacités de calcul, a révolutionné la façon dont les écologistes peuvent comprendre la distribution des espèces dans leur environnement. Les SDMs ont apporté l'outil qui permet de décrire la niche réalisée des espèces dans un espace environnemental multivarié et prédire leur distribution spatiale. Les prédictions, sous forme de carte probabilistes montrant la distribution potentielle de l'espèce, sont un moyen irremplaçable d'informer chaque unité du territoire de sa biodiversité potentielle. Les SDMs et les prédictions spatiales correspondantes peuvent être utilisés pour planifier des mesures de conservation pour des espèces particulières, pour concevoir des plans d'échantillonnage, pour évaluer les risques liés à la propagation d'espèces envahissantes, pour choisir l'emplacement de réserves et les mettre en réseau, et finalement, pour prévoir les changements de répartition en fonction de scénarios de changement climatique et/ou d'utilisation du sol. En évaluant l'effet de plusieurs facteurs sur la performance des modèles et sur la précision des prédictions spatiales, cette thèse vise à améliorer les techniques et les données disponibles pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces et à fournir la meilleure information possible aux gestionnaires pour appuyer leurs décisions et leurs plans d'action pour la conservation de la biodiversité en Suisse et au-delà. Plusieurs programmes de surveillance ont été mis en place de l'échelle nationale à l'échelle globale, et différentes sources de données sont désormais disponibles pour les chercheurs qui veulent modéliser la distribution des espèces. Toutefois, en raison du manque de moyens, les données sont souvent collectées à une résolution inappropriée, sont échantillonnées sur des zones limitées, ne sont pas spatialement explicites ou ne fournissent pas une information écologique suffisante. Un exemple typique est fourni par les données sur 'l'habitat' (sensu biota). Même s'il s'agit d'une information essentielle pour des mesures de conservation efficaces, elle est souvent approximée par l'utilisation du sol, l'information qui s'en approche le plus. En outre, les données ne sont souvent pas échantillonnées selon un plan d'échantillonnage établi, ce qui biaise les échantillons et par conséquent les résultats de la modélisation. Comprendre les sources de variabilité liées aux différentes phases du processus de modélisation s'avère crucial afin d'évaluer l'utilisation des cartes de distribution prédites à des fins de conservation.La recherche présentée dans cette thèse a été essentiellement menée dans le cadre du projet Landspot, un projet soutenu par le Fond National Suisse pour la Recherche. L'objectif principal de ce projet était d'évaluer la contribution d'unités 'd'habitat' pré-modélisées pour modéliser la répartition des espèces animales, notamment de papillons, à travers la Suisse. Tout en poursuivant cet objectif, différents aspects touchant à la qualité des données, au plan d'échantillonnage et au processus de modélisation sont abordés et améliorés, et leurs implications pour la conservation des espèces discutées. Les principaux 'habitats' considérés dans cette thèse sont des communautés de prairie et de forêt d'origine naturelle et anthropique telles que définies dans la typologie des habitats de Suisse. Ces communautés sont principalement définies au niveau phytosociologique de l'alliance. Pour l'instant aucune carte de la distribution de ces communautés n'est disponible à l'échelle nationale et à résolution fine. Dans un premier temps, il a donc été nécessaire de créer des modèles de distribution de ces communautés à travers la Suisse et par conséquent de recueillir les données nécessaires. Afin d'atteindre ce premier objectif, plusieurs nouveaux développements ont été nécessaires, tels que la définition de modèles experts, la classification du territoire suisse en domaines environnementaux, la conception d'un échantillonnage environnementalement stratifié des unités de végétation cibles dans toute la Suisse, la création d'une base de données intégrant un système d'aide à la décision pour la classification des relevés, et le « downscaling » des données de couverture du sol de 100 m à 25 m de résolution. Les principales contributions de cette thèse à la discipline de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces (SDM) sont rassemblées dans quatre articles scientifiques. Dans le premier article, publié dans le Journal of Biogeography, différentes questions liées au processus de modélisation sont étudiées en utilisant les données de l'inventaire forestier de l'Etat de Vaud. Tout d'abord sont évalués les effets de cinq méthodes de sélection pas-à-pas sur la performance, la stabilité et la parcimonie des modèles. Dans le même article sont également évalués: l'effet de la pondération des absences afin d'assurer une prévalence de 0.5 lors de la calibration du modèle; l'effet de limiter les absences au-delà de l'enveloppe définie par les présences; quatre méthodes différentes pour l'intégration de l'autocorrélation spatiale; et enfin, l'effet de l'intégration d'interactions entre facteurs. Les résultats présentés dans cet article ont permis d'améliorer l'outil GRASP qui intègre désonnais de nouvelles méthodes de sélection et la possibilité de traiter les interactions entre variables explicatives, ainsi que l'autocorrélation spatiale. La contribution de différentes sources de données issues de la télédétection a également été évaluée. Le deuxième article (en voie de soumission) explore les effets combinés de la taille de l'échantillon et de la post-stratification sur le la précision des modèles. Les données utilisées ici sont celles concernant la répartition des prairies de Suisse recueillies dans le cadre du projet Landspot et complétées par d'autres sources. Pour la stratification des données, différents cadres spatiaux ont été comparés. En particulier, la stratification environnementale par les domaines environnementaux de Suisse a été comparée à la stratification géographique par les régions biogéographiques ou par les cantons. Le troisième article (en voie de soumission) évalue la contribution de communautés végétales pré-modélisées à la modélisation de la faune. C'est une approche en deux étapes qui combine les disciplines de l'écologie des communautés et de l'écologie spatiale en intégrant leurs concepts de 'habitat' respectifs. Les communautés végétales sont modélisées d'abord, puis ces unités de 'habitat' sont utilisées pour modéliser les espèces animales. Une étude de cas est présentée avec des communautés prairiales et des espèces de papillons. Différentes façons d'intégrer l'information sur la végétation dans les modèles de répartition des papillons sont évaluées. Enfin, un clin d'oeil aux changements climatiques dans le dernier article, publié dans Ecological Modelling. Cet article propose un cadre conceptuel pour l'analyse des changements dans la distribution des espèces qui comprend notamment un catalogue des différentes formes possibles de changement le long d'un gradient d'élévation ou autre gradient environnemental, et une méthode quantitative améliorée pour identifier et décrire ces déplacements. Cette méthodologie a été développée en utilisant des données issues du monitoring des oiseaux nicheurs répandus et l'article présente les résultats concernant les déplacements observés dans la distribution altitudinale des oiseaux nicheurs en Suisse.L'objectif général de cette thèse est d'améliorer les modèles de distribution des espèces en tant que source d'information possible pour les différents outils de conservation (par exemple, listes rouges, réseaux écologiques, évaluation des risques de propagation d'espèces envahissantes, évaluation de la vulnérabilité des espèces dans le contexte de changement climatique). Bien que ces questions de conservation ne soient pas directement testées dans cette thèse, l'importance des améliorations proposées pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces est discutée à la fin de ce travail dans le contexte de la sélection de réseaux de réserves.

The joint influence of gender and amount of smoking on weight gain one year after smoking cessation.

Weight gain is often associated with smoking cessation and may discourage smokers from quitting. This study estimated the weight gained one year after smoking cessation and examined the risk factors associated with weight gain in order to identify socio-demographic groups at higher risk of increased weight after quitting. We analyzed data from 750 adults in two randomized controlled studies that included smokers motivated to quit and found a gradient in weight gain according to the actual duration of abstinence during follow-up. Subjects who were abstinent for at least 40 weeks gained 4.6 kg (SD = 3.8) on average, compared to 1.2 kg (SD = 2.6) for those who were abstinent less than 20 weeks during the 1-year follow-up. Considering the duration of abstinence as an exposure variable, we found an age effect and a significant interaction between sex and the amount of smoking before quitting: younger subjects gained more weight than older subjects; among light smokers, men gained more weight on average than women one year after quitting, while the opposite was observed among heavy smokers. Young women smoking heavily at baseline had the highest risk of weight gain after quitting.

No interaction between alcohol consumption and HDL-related genes on HDL cholesterol levels.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the relationships and possible interactions between polymorphisms related to HDL levels and alcohol consumption. METHODS: Cross-sectional population-based study including 2863 women and 2546 men aged 35-75 years (CoLaus study). Alcohol intake was assessed by the reported alcohol consumption of the last 7 days. Nineteen candidate genes known to influence HDL levels were studied. RESULTS: Alcohol consumption increased HDL cholesterol levels in both genders. After multivariate adjustment for gender, age, body mass index, smoking, hypolipidaemic drug treatment, physical activity and alcohol consumption, APOA5, CETP, LIPC and LPL gene polymorphisms were significantly (10(-5) threshold) related with HDL cholesterol levels, while no genexalcohol intake interaction was found for all SNPs studied. ABCA1 polymorphisms were related to HDL cholesterol levels on bivariate analysis but the relationship was no longer significant after multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Our data confirm the association of alcohol consumption and of APOA5, CETP, LIPC and LPL gene polymorphisms with HDL cholesterol levels. Conversely, no genexalcohol consumption interactions were found, suggesting that the effect of alcohol consumption on HDL cholesterol levels is not mediated via a modulation of HDL related genes.

INTERCELLULAR AND SYSTEM-LEVEL ASPECTS OF THE METABOLIC INTERACTIONS BETWEEN NEURONS AND GLIA

Quand on parle de l'acide lactique (aussi connu sous le nom de lactate) une des premières choses qui vient à l'esprit, c'est son implication en cas d'intense activité musculaire. Sa production pendant une activité physique prolongée est associée avec la sensation de fatigue. Il n'est donc pas étonnant que cette molécule ait été longtemps considérée comme un résidu du métabolisme, possiblement toxique et donc à éliminer. En fait, il a été découvert que le lactate joue un rôle prépondérant dans le métabolisme grâce à son fort potentiel énergétique. Le cerveau, en particulier les neurones qui le composent, est un organe très gourmand en énergie. Récemment, il a été démontré que les astrocytes, cellules du cerveau faisant partie de la famille des cellules gliales, utilisent le glucose pour produire du lactate comme source d'énergie et le distribue aux neurones de manière adaptée à leur activité. Cette découverte a renouvelé l'intérêt scientifique pour le lactate. Aujourd'hui, plusieurs études ont démontré l'implication du lactate dans d'autres fonctions de la physiologie cérébrale. Dans le cadre de notre étude, nous nous sommes intéressés au rapport entre neurones et astrocytes avec une attention particulière pour le rôle du lactate. Nous avons découvert que le lactate possède la capacité de modifier la communication entre les neurones. Nous avons aussi décrypté le mécanisme grâce auquel le lactate agit, qui est basé sur un récepteur présent à la surface des neurones. Cette étude montre une fonction jusque-là insoupçonnée du lactate qui a un fort impact sur la compréhension de la relation entre neurones et astrocytes. - Relatively to its volume, the brain uses a large amount of glucose as energy source. Furthermore, a tight link exists between the level of synaptic activity and the consumption of energy equivalents. Astrocytes have been shown to play a central role in the regulation of this so-called neurometabolic coupling. They are thought to deliver the metabolic substrate lactate to neurons in register to glutamatergic activity. The astrocytic uptake of glutamate, released in the synaptic cleft, is the trigger signal that activates an intracellular cascade of events that leads to the production and release of lactate from astrocytes. The main goal of this thesis work was to obtain detailed information on the metabolic and functional interplay between neurons and astrocytes, in particular on the influence of lactate besides its metabolic effects. To gain access to both spatial and temporal aspects of these dynamic interactions, we used optical microscopy associated with specific fluorescent indicators, as well as electrophysiology. In the first part of this thesis, we show that lactate decreases spontaneous neuronal, activity in a concentration-dependent manner and independently of its metabolism. We further identified a receptor-mediated pathway underlying this modulatory action of lactate. This finding constituted a novel mechanism for the modulation of neuronal transmission by lactate. In the second part, we have undergone a characterization of a new pharmacological tool, a high affinity glutamate transporter inhibitor. The finality of this study was to investigate the detailed pharmacological properties of the compound to optimize its use as a suppressor of glutamate signal from neuron to astrocytes. In conclusion, both studies have implications not only for the understanding of the metabolic cooperation between neurons and astrocytes, but also in the context of the glial modulation of neuronal activity. - Par rapport à son volume, le cerveau utilise une quantité massive de glucose comme source d'énergie. De plus, la consommation d'équivalents énergétiques est étroitement liée au niveau d'activité synaptique. Il a été montré que dans ce couplage neurométabolique, un rôle central est joué par les astrocytes. Ces cellules fournissent le lactate, un substrat métabolique, aux neurones de manière adaptée à leur activité glutamatergique. Plus précisément, le glutamate libéré dans la fente synaptique par les neurones, est récupéré par les astrocytes et déclenche ainsi une cascade d'événements intracellulaires qui conduit à la production et libération de lactate. Les travaux de cette thèse ont visé à étudier la relation métabolique et fonctionnelle entre neurones et astrocytes, avec une attention particulière pour des rôles que pourrait avoir le lactate au-delà de sa fonction métabolique. Pour étudier les aspects spatio-temporels de ces interactions dynamiques, nous avons utilisé à la fois la microscopie optique associée à des indicateurs fluorescents spécifiques, ainsi que l'électrophysiologie. Dans la première partie de cette thèse, nous montrons que le lactate diminue l'activité neuronale spontanée de façon concentration-dépendante et indépendamment de son métabolisme. Nous avons identifié l'implication d'un récepteur neuronal au lactate qui sous-tend ce mécanisme de régulation. La découverte de cette signalisation via le lactate constitue un mode d'interaction supplémentaire et nouveau entre neurones et astrocytes. Dans la deuxième partie, nous avons caractérisé un outil pharmacologique, un inhibiteur des transporteurs du glutamate à haute affinité. Le but de cette étude était d'obtenir un agent pharmacologique capable d'interrompre spécifiquement le signal médié par le glutamate entre neurones et astrocytes pouvant permettre de mieux comprendre leur relation. En conclusion, ces études ont une implication non seulement pour la compréhension de la coopération entre neurones et astrocytes mais aussi dans le contexte de la modulation de l'activité neuronale par les cellules gliales.

Gene expression databases and data mining.

The DNA microarray technology has arguably caught the attention of the worldwide life science community and is now systematically supporting major discoveries in many fields of study. The majority of the initial technical challenges of conducting experiments are being resolved, only to be replaced with new informatics hurdles, including statistical analysis, data visualization, interpretation, and storage. Two systems of databases, one containing expression data and one containing annotation data are quickly becoming essential knowledge repositories of the research community. This present paper surveys several databases, which are considered "pillars" of research and important nodes in the network. This paper focuses on a generalized workflow scheme typical for microarray experiments using two examples related to cancer research. The workflow is used to reference appropriate databases and tools for each step in the process of array experimentation. Additionally, benefits and drawbacks of current array databases are addressed, and suggestions are made for their improvement.

Use of high-resolution geophysical data to characterize heterogeneous aquifers: influence of data integration method on hydrological predictions

The integration of geophysical data into the subsurface characterization problem has been shown in many cases to significantly improve hydrological knowledge by providing information at spatial scales and locations that is unattainable using conventional hydrological measurement techniques. The investigation of exactly how much benefit can be brought by geophysical data in terms of its effect on hydrological predictions, however, has received considerably less attention in the literature. Here, we examine the potential hydrological benefits brought by a recently introduced simulated annealing (SA) conditional stochastic simulation method designed for the assimilation of diverse hydrogeophysical data sets. We consider the specific case of integrating crosshole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and borehole porosity log data to characterize the porosity distribution in saturated heterogeneous aquifers. In many cases, porosity is linked to hydraulic conductivity and thus to flow and transport behavior. To perform our evaluation, we first generate a number of synthetic porosity fields exhibiting varying degrees of spatial continuity and structural complexity. Next, we simulate the collection of crosshole GPR data between several boreholes in these fields, and the collection of porosity log data at the borehole locations. The inverted GPR data, together with the porosity logs, are then used to reconstruct the porosity field using the SA-based method, along with a number of other more elementary approaches. Assuming that the grid-cell-scale relationship between porosity and hydraulic conductivity is unique and known, the porosity realizations are then used in groundwater flow and contaminant transport simulations to assess the benefits and limitations of the different approaches.

Health literacy [Document électronique] : an economic perspective and data for Switzerland. Part 2, A review of health literacy measures and a cost assessment of limited health literacy

Summary : 1. Measuring health literacy in Switzerland: a review of six surveys: 1.1 Comparison of questionnaires - 1.2 Measures of health literacy in Switzerland - 1.3 Discussion of Swiss data on HL - 1.4 Description of the six surveys: 1.4.1 Current health trends and health literacy in the Swiss population (gfs-UNIVOX), 1.4.2 Nutrition, physical exercise and body weight : opinions and perceptions of the Swiss population (USI), 1.4.3 Health Literacy in Switzerland (ISPMZ), 1.4.4 Swiss Health Survey (SHS), 1.4.5 Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), 1.4.6 Adult literacy and life skills survey (ALL). - 2 . Economic costs of low health literacy in Switzerland: a rough calculation. Appendix: Screenshots cost model

Hyperhidrosis: a new and often early symptom in Fabry disease. International experience and data from the Fabry Outcome Survey.

Hypohidrosis is a classic feature of Fabry disease; in contrast, hyperhidrosis has only been rarely described. The aim of the study is to characterise the baseline descriptive data on hyperhidrosis (frequency, age at onset, sex ratio and outcome with and without enzyme replacement therapy) in hemizygous male and heterozygous female patients with Fabry disease. We describe case histories of five patients with Fabry disease and hyperhidrosis seen at three different centres. We have also analysed a cohort of 21 paediatric patients in the UK and a large European cohort of patients enrolled in the Fabry Outcome Survey (FOS). Five patients (three female, two male) with hyperhidrosis were originally identified, although each had additional symptoms related to Fabry disease. The age at onset of hyperhidrosis was less than 18 years in four cases. In the cohort of 21 paediatric patients (12 female, nine male), one female had hyperhidrosis; the age at onset of this symptom was 11 years. In the FOS cohort, 66 of 714 patients with Fabry disease had hyperhidrosis (44 of 369 females, 11.9%; 22 of 345 males, 6.4%). The female predominance was observed in seven of nine countries from which data were analysed. Hyperhidrosis is an increasingly recognised feature of the Fabry disease phenotype. It is more prevalent in females than in males and often appears in childhood or adolescence. The efficacy of enzyme replacement therapy on this recently recognised symptom should be assessed.

Official Positions for FRAX® clinical regarding international differences from Joint Official Positions Development Conference of the International Society for Clinical Densitometry and International Osteoporosis Foundation on FRAX®.

Osteoporosis is a serious worldwide epidemic. Increased risk of fractures is the hallmark of the disease and is associated with increased morbidity, mortality and economic burden. FRAX® is a web-based tool developed by the Sheffield WHO Collaborating Center team, that integrates clinical risk factors, femoral neck BMD, country specific mortality and fracture data and calculates the 10 year fracture probability in order to help health care professionals identify patients who need treatment. However, only 31 countries have a FRAX® calculator at the time paper was accepted for publication. In the absence of a FRAX® model for a particular country, it has been suggested to use a surrogate country for which the epidemiology of osteoporosis most closely approximates the index country. More specific recommendations for clinicians in these countries are not available. In North America, concerns have also been raised regarding the assumptions used to construct the US ethnic specific FRAX® calculators with respect to the correction factors applied to derive fracture probabilities in Blacks, Asians and Hispanics in comparison to Whites. In addition, questions were raised about calculating fracture risk in other ethnic groups e.g., Native Americans and First Canadians. In order to provide additional guidance to clinicians, a FRAX® International Task Force was formed to address specific questions raised by physicians in countries without FRAX® calculators and seeking to integrate FRAX® into their clinical practice. The main questions that the task force tried to answer were the following: The Task Force members conducted appropriate literature reviews and developed preliminary statements that were discussed and graded by a panel of experts at the ISCD-IOF joint conference. The statements approved by the panel of experts are discussed in the current paper.

Patient- and therapy-related factors on the wear of denture teeth : results of a clinical trial

OBJECTIVE: When we examined a previously published prospective multi-center clinical trial in which complete denture-wearers were followed over a period of 2 years, we found that about 30% of the variability in the clinical wear data of denture teeth was due to unknown characteristics of the subjects. In the second part of the study, we try to identify which patient- and therapy-related factors may explain some of this variability. METHODS: The clinical wear data of denture teeth at different recall times (6, 12, 18, 24 months) in 89 subjects (at baseline) were correlated with the following parameters, which may all have an influence on the wear of denture teeth: age, gender, bruxism as reported by the subjects, number of prostheses used so far, time since last extraction, smoking, fit of dentures as judged by the subject and the clinician, average denture wearing time and wearing of denture during the night. To evaluate the influence of the different patient- and therapy-related variables, both a univariate analysis (one extra factor to the model) and a multivariate analysis were carried out using linear mixed models with the variable Log mean as the outcome. RESULTS: None of the patient- and therapy-related parameters showed a statistically significant effect on the wear of denture teeth. There was, however, a trend for women to show less wear compared to men and a trend of decreasing wear with increasing age. SIGNIFICANCE: Further research is required to identify the factors which are responsible for the high variability observed between the subjects regarding clinical wear data.

Fission yeast Sec3 and Exo70 are transported on actin cables and localize the exocyst complex to cell poles.

The exocyst complex is essential for many exocytic events, by tethering vesicles at the plasma membrane for fusion. In fission yeast, polarized exocytosis for growth relies on the combined action of the exocyst at cell poles and myosin-driven transport along actin cables. We report here the identification of fission yeast Schizosaccharomyces pombe Sec3 protein, which we identified through sequence homology of its PH-like domain. Like other exocyst subunits, sec3 is required for secretion and cell division. Cells deleted for sec3 are only conditionally lethal and can proliferate when osmotically stabilized. Sec3 is redundant with Exo70 for viability and for the localization of other exocyst subunits, suggesting these components act as exocyst tethers at the plasma membrane. Consistently, Sec3 localizes to zones of growth independently of other exocyst subunits but depends on PIP(2) and functional Cdc42. FRAP analysis shows that Sec3, like all other exocyst subunits, localizes to cell poles largely independently of the actin cytoskeleton. However, we show that Sec3, Exo70 and Sec5 are transported by the myosin V Myo52 along actin cables. These data suggest that the exocyst holocomplex, including Sec3 and Exo70, is present on exocytic vesicles, which can reach cell poles by either myosin-driven transport or random walk.

Effect of a whey-predominant starter formula containing LCPUFAs and oligosaccharides (FOS/GOS) on gastrointestinal comfort in infants.

Development of new infant formulas aims to replicate the benefits of breast milk. One benefit of breast milk over infant formulas is greater gastrointestinal comfort. We compared indicators of gastrointestinal comfort in infants fed a whey-predominant formula containing long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids, galacto-oligo-saccharides and fructo-oligosaccharides, and infants fed a control casein-predominant formula without additional ingredients. The single-centre, prospective, double-blind, controlled trial randomly assigned healthy, full-term infants (n=144) to receive exclusively either experimental or control formula from 30 days to 4 months of age. A group of exclusively breast-fed infants served as reference (n=80). At 1, 2, 3, and 4 months, infants' growth parameters were measured and their health assessed. Parents recorded frequency and physical characteristics of infants' stool, frequency of regurgitation, vomiting, crying and colic. At 2-months, gastric emptying (ultrasound) and intestinal transit time (H2 breath test) were measured, and stool samples collected for bacterial analysis. Compared to the control (n=69), fewer of the experimental group (n=67) had hard stools (0.7 vs 7.5%, p<0.001) and more had soft stools (90.8 vs 82.3%, p<0.05). Also compared to the control, the experimental group's stool microbiota composition (mean % bifidobacteria: 78.1 (experimental, n=17), 63.7 (control, n=16), 74.3 (breast-fed, n=20), gastric transit times (59.6 (experimental, n=53), 61.4 (control, n=62), 55.9 (breast-fed, n=67) minutes) and intestinal transit times (data not shown) were closer to that of the breast-fed group. Growth parameter values were similar for all groups. The data suggest that, in infants, the prebiotic-containing whey-based formula provides superior gastrointestinal comfort than a control formula.

Effects of age, birth cohort and period of death on Swiss cancer mortality, 1951-1984.

Swiss death certification data over the period 1951-1984 for total cancer mortality and 30 major cancer sites in the population aged 25 to 74 years were analysed using a log-linear Poisson model with arbitrary constraints on the parameters to isolate the effects of birth cohort, calendar period of death and age. The overall pattern of total cancer mortality in males was stable for period values and showed some moderate decreases in cohort values restricted to the generations born after 1930. Cancer mortality trends were more favourable in females, with steady, though moderate, declines in both cohort and period values. According to the estimates from the model, the worst affected generation for male lung cancer was that born around 1910, and a flattening of trends or some moderate decline was observed for more recent cohorts, although this decline was considerably more limited than in other European countries. There were decreases in cohort and period values for stomach, intestine and oesophageal cancer in both sexes and (cervix) uteri in females. Increases were observed in both cohort and period trends for pancreas and liver in males and for several other neoplasms, including prostate, brain, leukaemias and lymphomas, restricted, however, for the latter sites, to the earlier cohorts and hence partly attributable to improved diagnosis and certification in the elderly. Although age values for lung cancer in females were around 10-times lower than in males, upward trends in female lung cancer cohort values were observed in subsequent cohorts and for period values from the late 1960's onwards. Therefore, future trends in female lung cancer mortality should continue to be monitored. The application of these age/period/cohort models thus provides a summary guide for the reading and interpretation of cancer mortality trends, although it cannot replace careful inspection of single age-specific rates.

Circadian and wake-dependent effects on the pupil light reflex in response to narrow-bandwidth light pulses.

PURPOSE: Nonvisual light-dependent functions in humans are conveyed mainly by intrinsically photosensitive retinal ganglion cells, which express melanopsin as photopigment. We aimed to identify the effects of circadian phase and sleepiness across 24 hours on various aspects of the pupil response to light stimulation. METHODS: We tested 10 healthy adults hourly in two 12-hour sessions covering a 24-hour period. Pupil responses to narrow bandwidth red (635 ± 18 nm) and blue (463 ± 24 nm) light (duration of 1 and 30 seconds) at equal photon fluxes were recorded, and correlated with salivary melatonin concentrations at the same circadian phases and to subjective sleepiness ratings. The magnitude of pupil constriction was determined from minimal pupil size. The post-stimulus pupil response was assessed from the pupil size at 6 seconds following light offset, the area within the redilation curve, and the exponential rate of redilation. RESULTS: Among the measured parameters, the pupil size 6 seconds after light offset correlated with melatonin concentrations (P < 0.05) and showed a significant modulation over 24 hours with maximal values after the nocturnal peak of melatonin secretion. In contrast, the post-stimulus pupil response following red light stimulation correlated with subjective sleepiness (P < 0.05) without significant changes over 24 hours. CONCLUSIONS: The post-stimulus pupil response to blue light as a marker of intrinsic melanopsin activity demonstrated a circadian modulation. In contrast, the effect of sleepiness was more apparent in the cone contribution to the pupil response. Thus, pupillary responsiveness to light is under influence of the endogenous circadian clock and subjective sleepiness.

Official Positions for FRAX® clinical regarding smoking from Joint Official Positions Development Conference of the International Society for Clinical Densitometry and International Osteoporosis Foundation on FRAX®.

The worldwide prevalence of smoking has been estimated at about 50% in men, and 10% in women, with larger variations among different populations studied. Smoking has been shown to affect many organ systems resulting in severe morbidity and increased mortality. In addition, smoking has been identified as a predictor of ten-year fracture risk in men and women, largely independent of an individual's bone mineral density. This finding has eventually lead to incorporation of this risk factor into FRAX®, an algorithm that has been developed to calculate an individual's ten-year fracture risk. However, only little, or conflicting data is available on a possible association between smoking dose, duration, length of time after cessation, type of tobacco and fracture risk, limiting this risk factor's applicability in the context of FRAX®.