Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale: some case studies

Every year, debris flows cause huge damage in mountainous areas. Due to population pressure in hazardous zones, the socio-economic impact is much higher than in the past. Therefore, the development of indicative susceptibility hazard maps is of primary importance, particularly in developing countries. However, the complexity of the phenomenon and the variability of local controlling factors limit the use of processbased models for a first assessment. A debris flow model has been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using digital elevation model (DEM) with a GIS-based approach.. The automatic identification of source areas and the estimation of debris flow spreading, based on GIS tools, provide a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. One of the main advantages of this model is its workability. In fact, everything is open to the user, from the data choice to the selection of the algorithms and their parameters. The Flow-R model was tested in three different contexts: two in Switzerland and one in Pakistan, for indicative susceptibility hazard mapping. It was shown that the quality of the DEM is the most important parameter to obtain reliable results for propagation, but also to identify the potential debris flows sources.

Regional-scale debris-flow risk assessment for an alpine valley

In this paper, we perform a societal and economic risk assessment for debris flows at the regional scale, for lower Valtellina, Northern Italy. We apply a simple empirical debris-flow model, FLOW-R, which couples a probabilistic flow routing algorithm with an energy line approach, providing the relative probability of transit, and the maximum kinetic energy, for each cell. By assessing a vulnerability to people and to other exposed elements (buildings, public facilities, crops, woods, communication lines), and their economic value, we calculated the expected annual losses both in terms of lives (societal risk) and goods (direct economic risk). For societal risk assessment, we distinguish for the day and night scenarios. The distribution of people at different moments of the day was considered, accounting for the occupational and recreational activities, to provide a more realistic assessment of risk. Market studies were performed in order to assess a realistic economic value to goods, structures, and lifelines. As terrain unit, a 20 m x 20 m cell was used, in accordance with data availability and the spatial resolution requested for a risk assessment at this scale. Societal risk the whole area amounts to 1.98 and 4.22 deaths/year for the day and the night scenarios, respectively, with a maximum of 0.013 deaths/year/cell. Economic risk for goods amounts to 1,760,291 ?/year, with a maximum of 13,814 ?/year/cell.

Morphostructural analysis of an alpine debris flows catchment: implication for debris supply

Rock slope instabilities are implicitly linked to the supply of sediment and debris recharging channels prone to debris flow. Hence, the incorporation of bedrock structure and terrain morphology can be relevant in the analysis of sediment budget and debris flow hazard assessment. Here, the mode of debris production of the Manival catchment (northern French Alps) is documented by the study of its morphostructural aspects extracted from high resolution DEM. Terrain implication in the process of debris supply is evaluated by: a) A systematic classification of the major morphological units based on the slope gradient that enables a spatial analysis of zones of debris production and deposition. b) A detailed structural analysis performed on DEM in order to identify potential unstable slopes. c) An analysis of the gullies orientation that informs in term of structural control of the sources zones. d) Localisation of high density joints sets that document about whether sources of continuous debris production are controlled by the structural setting of the catchment. These DEM-based indicators can be used as proxies for assessing the influences of the current topography and enable to quantify a degree of susceptibility to mass wasting and hillslope erosion activity. This present contribution suggests some directions for characterizing sediment flux dynamic in small alpine catchment.

Sediment budget monitoring of a debris-flow torrent (French Prealps)

The Manival near Grenoble (French Prealps) is a very active debris-flow torrent equipped with a large sediment trap (25 000 m3) protecting an urbanized alluvial fan from debris-flows. We began monitoring the sediment budget of the catchment controlled by the trap in Spring 2009. Terrestrial laser scanner is used for monitoring topographic changes in a small gully, the main channel, and the sediment trap. In the main channel, 39 cross-sections are surveyed after every event. Three periods of intense geomorphic activity are documented here. The first was induced by a convective storm in August 2009 which triggered a debris-flow that deposited ~1,800 m3 of sediment in the trap. The debris-flow originated in the upper reach of the main channel and our observations showed that sediment outputs were entirely supplied by channel scouring. Hillslope debris-flows were initiated on talus slopes, as revealed by terrestrial LiDAR resurveys; however they were disconnected to the main channel. The second and third periods of geomorphic activity were induced by long duration and low intensity rainfall events in September and October 2009 which generate small flow events with intense bedload transport. These events contribute to recharge the debris-flow channel with sediments by depositing important gravel dunes propagating from headwaters. The total recharge in the torrent subsequent to bedload transport events was estimated at 34% of the sediment erosion induced by the August debris-flow.

A quantitative test of Hamilton's rule for the evolution of altruism.

The evolution of altruism is a fundamental and enduring puzzle in biology. In a seminal paper Hamilton showed that altruism can be selected for when rb - c > 0, where c is the fitness cost to the altruist, b is the fitness benefit to the beneficiary, and r is their genetic relatedness. While many studies have provided qualitative support for Hamilton's rule, quantitative tests have not yet been possible due to the difficulty of quantifying the costs and benefits of helping acts. Here we use a simulated system of foraging robots to experimentally manipulate the costs and benefits of helping and determine the conditions under which altruism evolves. By conducting experimental evolution over hundreds of generations of selection in populations with different c/b ratios, we show that Hamilton's rule always accurately predicts the minimum relatedness necessary for altruism to evolve. This high accuracy is remarkable given the presence of pleiotropic and epistatic effects as well as mutations with strong effects on behavior and fitness (effects not directly taken into account in Hamilton's original 1964 rule). In addition to providing the first quantitative test of Hamilton's rule in a system with a complex mapping between genotype and phenotype, these experiments demonstrate the wide applicability of kin selection theory.

Traitement de la dépression résistante par l'association citalopram-lithium. Méthodologie d'une étude multicentrique en double aveugle et résultats préliminaires [Treatment of resistant depression with the citalopram-lithium combination. Methodology of a double-blind multicenter study and preliminary results].

Citalopram, a new bicyclic antidepressant, is the most selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor. In a number of double-blind controlled studies, citalopram was compared to placebo and to known tricyclic antidepressants. These studies have shown their efficacy and good safety. The inefficacy of a psychotropic treatment in at least 20% of depressives has led a number of authors to propose original drug combinations and associations, like antidepressant/lithium (Li), antidepressant/sleep deprivation (agrypnia), antidepressant/ECT, or antidepressant/LT3. The aim of this investigation is to evaluate the clinical effectiveness and safety of a combined citalopram/lithium treatment in therapy-resistant patients, taking account of serotonergic functions, as tested by the fenfluramine/prolactin test, and of drug pharmacokinetics and pharmacogenetics of metabolism. DESIGN OF THE STUDY: A washout period of 3 days before initiating the treatment is included. After an open treatment phase of 28 days (D) with citalopram (20 mg D1-D3; 40 mg D4-D14; 40 or 60 mg D15-D28; concomitant medication allowed: chloral, chlorazepate), the nonresponding patients [less than 50% improvement in the total score on the 21 item-Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS)] are selected and treated with or without Li (randomized in double-blind conditions: citalopram/Li or citalopram/placebo) during the treatment (D29-D35). Thereafter, all patients included in the double-blind phase subsequently receive an open treatment with citalopram/Li for 7 days (D36-D42). The hypothesis of a relationship between serotoninergic functions in patients using the fenfluramine/prolactin test (D1) and the clinical response to citalopram (and Li) is assessed. Moreover, it is evaluated whether the pharmacogenetic status of the patients, as determined by the mephenytoin/dextromethorphan test (D0-D28), is related to the metabolism of fenfluramine and citalopram, and also to the clinical response. CLINICAL ASSESSMENT: Patients with a diagnosis of major depressive disorders according to DSM III are submitted to a clinical assessment of D1, D7, D14, D28, D35, D42: HDRS, CGI (clinical global impression), VAS (visual analog scales for self-rating of depression), HDRS (Hamilton depression rating scale, 21 items), UKU (side effects scale), and to clinical laboratory examens, as well as ECG, control of weight, pulse, blood pressure at D1, D28, D35. Fenfluramine/prolactin test: A butterfly needle is inserted in a forearm vein at 7 h 45 and is kept patent with liquemine. Samples for plasma prolactin, and d- and l-fenfluramine determinations are drawn at 8 h 15 (base line). Patients are given 60 mg fenfluramine (as a racemate) at 8 h 30. Kinetic points are determined at 9 h 30, 10 h 30, 11 h 30, 12 h 30, 13 h 30. Plasma levels of d- and l-fenfluramine are determined by gas chromatography and prolactin by IRNA. Mephenytoin/dextromethorphan test: Patients empty their bladders before the test; they are then given 25 mg dextropethorphan and 100 mg mephenytoin (as a racemate) at 8 h 00. They collect all urines during the following 8 hours. The metabolic ratio is determined by gas chromatography (metabolic ratio dextromethorphan/dextrorphan greater than 0.3 = PM (poor metabolizer); mephenytoin/4-OH-mephenytoin greater than 5.6, or mephenytoin S/R greater than 0.8 = PM). Citalopram plasma levels: Plasma levels of citalopram, desmethylcitalopram and didesmethylcitalopram are determined by gas chromatography--mass spectrometry. RESULTS OF THE PILOT STUDY. The investigation has been preceded by a pilot study including 14 patients, using the abovementioned protocol, except that all nonresponders were medicated with citalopram/Li on D28 to D42. The mean total score (n = 14) on the 21 item Hamilton scale was significantly reduced after the treatment, ie from 26.93 +/- 5.80 on D1 to 8.57 +/- 6.90 on D35 (p less than 0.001). A similar patCitalopram, a new bicyclic antidepressant, is the most selective serotonin reu

Diagnosing pulmonary embolism in outpatients with clinical assessment, D-dimer measurement, venous ultrasound, and helical computed tomography: a multicenter management study.

PURPOSE: To evaluate a diagnostic strategy for pulmonary embolism that combined clinical assessment, plasma D-dimer measurement, lower limb venous ultrasonography, and helical computed tomography (CT). METHODS: A cohort of 965 consecutive patients presenting to the emergency departments of three general and teaching hospitals with clinically suspected pulmonary embolism underwent sequential noninvasive testing. Clinical probability was assessed by a prediction rule combined with implicit judgment. All patients were followed for 3 months. RESULTS: A normal D-dimer level (<500 microg/L by a rapid enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay) ruled out venous thromboembolism in 280 patients (29%), and finding a deep vein thrombosis by ultrasonography established the diagnosis in 92 patients (9.5%). Helical CT was required in only 593 patients (61%) and showed pulmonary embolism in 124 patients (12.8%). Pulmonary embolism was considered ruled out in the 450 patients (46.6%) with a negative ultrasound and CT scan and a low-to-intermediate clinical probability. The 8 patients with a negative ultrasound and CT scan despite a high clinical probability proceeded to pulmonary angiography (positive: 2; negative: 6). Helical CT was inconclusive in 11 patients (pulmonary embolism: 4; no pulmonary embolism: 7). The overall prevalence of pulmonary embolism was 23%. Patients classified as not having pulmonary embolism were not anticoagulated during follow-up and had a 3-month thromboembolic risk of 1.0% (95% confidence interval: 0.5% to 2.1%). CONCLUSION: A noninvasive diagnostic strategy combining clinical assessment, D-dimer measurement, ultrasonography, and helical CT yielded a diagnosis in 99% of outpatients suspected of pulmonary embolism, and appeared to be safe, provided that CT was combined with ultrasonography to rule out the disease.