Binary classification of dyslipidemia from the waist-to-hip ratio and body mass index: a comparison of linear, logistic, and CART models.

BACKGROUND: We sought to improve upon previously published statistical modeling strategies for binary classification of dyslipidemia for general population screening purposes based on the waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index anthropometric measurements. METHODS: Study subjects were participants in WHO-MONICA population-based surveys conducted in two Swiss regions. Outcome variables were based on the total serum cholesterol to high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio. The other potential predictor variables were gender, age, current cigarette smoking, and hypertension. The models investigated were: (i) linear regression; (ii) logistic classification; (iii) regression trees; (iv) classification trees (iii and iv are collectively known as "CART"). Binary classification performance of the region-specific models was externally validated by classifying the subjects from the other region. RESULTS: Waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index remained modest predictors of dyslipidemia. Correct classification rates for all models were 60-80%, with marked gender differences. Gender-specific models provided only small gains in classification. The external validations provided assurance about the stability of the models. CONCLUSIONS: There were no striking differences between either the algebraic (i, ii) vs. non-algebraic (iii, iv), or the regression (i, iii) vs. classification (ii, iv) modeling approaches. Anticipated advantages of the CART vs. simple additive linear and logistic models were less than expected in this particular application with a relatively small set of predictor variables. CART models may be more useful when considering main effects and interactions between larger sets of predictor variables.

A 600 kb deletion syndrome at 16p11.2 leads to energy imbalance and neuropsychiatric disorders.

BACKGROUND: The recurrent ~600 kb 16p11.2 BP4-BP5 deletion is among the most frequent known genetic aetiologies of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and related neurodevelopmental disorders. OBJECTIVE: To define the medical, neuropsychological, and behavioural phenotypes in carriers of this deletion. METHODS: We collected clinical data on 285 deletion carriers and performed detailed evaluations on 72 carriers and 68 intrafamilial non-carrier controls. RESULTS: When compared to intrafamilial controls, full scale intelligence quotient (FSIQ) is two standard deviations lower in carriers, and there is no difference between carriers referred for neurodevelopmental disorders and carriers identified through cascade family testing. Verbal IQ (mean 74) is lower than non-verbal IQ (mean 83) and a majority of carriers require speech therapy. Over 80% of individuals exhibit psychiatric disorders including ASD, which is present in 15% of the paediatric carriers. Increase in head circumference (HC) during infancy is similar to the HC and brain growth patterns observed in idiopathic ASD. Obesity, a major comorbidity present in 50% of the carriers by the age of 7 years, does not correlate with FSIQ or any behavioural trait. Seizures are present in 24% of carriers and occur independently of other symptoms. Malformations are infrequently found, confirming only a few of the previously reported associations. CONCLUSIONS: The 16p11.2 deletion impacts in a quantitative and independent manner FSIQ, behaviour and body mass index, possibly through direct influences on neural circuitry. Although non-specific, these features are clinically significant and reproducible. Lastly, this study demonstrates the necessity of studying large patient cohorts ascertained through multiple methods to characterise the clinical consequences of rare variants involved in common diseases.

Effect of antenatal corticosteroids on fetal growth and gestational age at birth.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effect of multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids on neonatal size, controlling for gestational age at birth and other confounders, and to determine whether there was a dose-response relationship between number of courses of antenatal corticosteroids and neonatal size. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of the Multiple Courses of Antenatal Corticosteroids for Preterm Birth Study, a double-blind randomized controlled trial of single compared with multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids in women at risk for preterm birth and in which fetuses administered multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids weighed less, were shorter, and had smaller head circumferences at birth. All women (n=1,858) and children (n=2,304) enrolled in the Multiple Courses of Antenatal Corticosteroids for Preterm Birth Study were included in the current analysis. Multiple linear regression analyses were undertaken. RESULTS: Compared with placebo, neonates in the antenatal corticosteroids group were born earlier (estimated difference and confidence interval [CI]: -0.428 weeks, CI -0.10264 to -0.75336; P=.01). Controlling for gestational age at birth and confounding factors, multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids were associated with a decrease in birth weight (-33.50 g, CI -66.27120 to -0.72880; P=.045), length (-0.339 cm, CI -0.6212 to -0.05676]; P=.019), and head circumference (-0.296 cm, -0.45672 to -0.13528; P<.001). For each additional course of antenatal corticosteroids, there was a trend toward an incremental decrease in birth weight, length, and head circumference. CONCLUSION: Fetuses exposed to multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids were smaller at birth. The reduction in size was partially attributed to being born at an earlier gestational age but also was attributed to decreased fetal growth. Finally, a dose-response relationship exists between the number of corticosteroid courses and a decrease in fetal growth. The long-term effect of these findings is unknown. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, www.clinicaltrials.gov, NCT00187382. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: II.

Multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids for preterm birth (MACS): a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: One course of antenatal corticosteroids reduces the risk of respiratory distress syndrome and neonatal death. Weekly doses given to women who remain undelivered after a single course may have benefits (less respiratory morbidity) or cause harm (reduced growth in utero). We aimed to find out whether multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids would reduce neonatal morbidity and mortality without adversely affecting fetal growth. METHODS: 1858 women at 25-32 weeks' gestation who remained undelivered 14-21 days after an initial course of antenatal corticosteroids and continued to be at high risk of preterm birth were randomly assigned to multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids (n=937) or placebo (n=921), every 14 days until week 33 or delivery, whichever came first. The primary outcome was a composite of perinatal or neonatal mortality, severe respiratory distress syndrome, intraventricular haemorrhage (grade III or IV), periventricular leucomalacia, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, or necrotising enterocolitis. Analysis was by intention to treat. All patients and caregivers were unaware of the treatment given. This trial is registered as number ISRCTN2654148. FINDINGS: Infants exposed to multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids had similar morbidity and mortality to those exposed to placebo (150 [12.9%] vs 143 [12.5%]). Those receiving multiple doses of corticosteroids also weighed less at birth than those exposed to placebo (2216 g vs 2330 g, p=0.0026), were shorter (44.5 cm vs 45.4 cm, p<0.001), and had a smaller head circumference (31.1 cm vs 31.7 cm, p<0.001). INTERPRETATION: Multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids, every 14 days, do not improve preterm-birth outcomes, and are associated with a decreased weight, length, and head circumference at birth. Therefore, this treatment schedule is not recommended. FUNDING: Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Mirror extreme BMI phenotypes associated with gene dosage at the chromosome 16p11.2 locus.

Both obesity and being underweight have been associated with increased mortality. Underweight, defined as a body mass index (BMI) ≤ 18.5 kg per m(2) in adults and ≤ -2 standard deviations from the mean in children, is the main sign of a series of heterogeneous clinical conditions including failure to thrive, feeding and eating disorder and/or anorexia nervosa. In contrast to obesity, few genetic variants underlying these clinical conditions have been reported. We previously showed that hemizygosity of a ∼600-kilobase (kb) region on the short arm of chromosome 16 causes a highly penetrant form of obesity that is often associated with hyperphagia and intellectual disabilities. Here we show that the corresponding reciprocal duplication is associated with being underweight. We identified 138 duplication carriers (including 132 novel cases and 108 unrelated carriers) from individuals clinically referred for developmental or intellectual disabilities (DD/ID) or psychiatric disorders, or recruited from population-based cohorts. These carriers show significantly reduced postnatal weight and BMI. Half of the boys younger than five years are underweight with a probable diagnosis of failure to thrive, whereas adult duplication carriers have an 8.3-fold increased risk of being clinically underweight. We observe a trend towards increased severity in males, as well as a depletion of male carriers among non-medically ascertained cases. These features are associated with an unusually high frequency of selective and restrictive eating behaviours and a significant reduction in head circumference. Each of the observed phenotypes is the converse of one reported in carriers of deletions at this locus. The phenotypes correlate with changes in transcript levels for genes mapping within the duplication but not in flanking regions. The reciprocal impact of these 16p11.2 copy-number variants indicates that severe obesity and being underweight could have mirror aetiologies, possibly through contrasting effects on energy balance.

Early parenteral lipids and growth velocity in extremely-low-birth-weight infants.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Whether early parenteral lipids improve postnatal growth of preterm neonates remains unclear. We aimed to assess the effects of parenteral lipids on growth velocity in extremely-low-birth-weight infants. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included 121 extremely-low-birth-weight infants. The associations between parenteral lipids (cumulative intakes during the first week and delays in their introduction) and growth velocities (weight, head circumference and length) up to 28 days of life and to 36 weeks of corrected age were analysed using uni- and multivariate linear regression. RESULTS: Univariate analyses showed a significant positive association between the cumulative intakes of parenteral lipids during the first week and i) weight gain up to day 28; ii) weight gain up to 36 weeks of corrected age; iii) head circumference growth up to day 28. There was a negative correlation between the delay in parenteral lipid introduction and weight gain up to day 28. In multivariate analyses, the association between the cumulative intakes of parenteral lipids and weight gain up to 28 days was independent of gestational age at birth, birth weight, sex, smallness for gestational age, and enteral intakes (regression coefficient: 0.19; 95% CI: 0.01-0.38) and, up to 36 weeks, independent of gestational age, birth weight, sex, smallness for gestational age and parenteral glucose and amino acids (0.16; 95% CI: 0.04-0.27). CONCLUSIONS: Parenteral lipids during the first week were positively associated with weight gain in extremely-low-birth-weight infants and could improve early nutritional support of preterm neonates.

Genetic factors of obesity and eating disorders: Copy number variations (CNV) involving SH2B1

Context : It is now clearly shown that genetic factors in association with environment play a key role in obesity and eating disorders. This project studies the clinical symptoms and molecular abnormalities in patients carrying a strong hereditary predisposition to obesity and eating behavior disorders. We have previously published the association between the 16:29.5-30.1 deletion and a very penetrant form of morbid obesity and macrocephaly. We have also demonstrated the association between the reciprocal 16:29.5-30.1 duplication and underweight and small head circumference. These 2 studies demonstrate that gene dosage of one or several genes in this region regulates BMI as well as brain growth. At present, there are no data pointing towards particular candidate genes. We are currently investigating a second non-overlapping recurrent CNV encompassing SH2B1, upstream of the aforementioned rearrangement. SNPs in this gene have been associated with BMI in GWAS studies and mice models confirmed this association. Bokuchova et al have reported an association between deletions encompassing this gene and severe early onset obesity, as well as insulin resistance. We are currently collecting and analyzing data to fully characterize the phenotype and the transcriptional patterns associated with this rearrangement. Aims : 1. Identify carriers of any CNVs in the greater 16p11.2 region (between 16:28MB and 32MB) in the EGG consortium. 2. Perform association studies between SNPs in the greater 16p11.2 region (16:28-32MB) and anthropometric measures with adjusted "locus-wide significance", to identify or prioritize candidate genes potentially driving the association observed in patients with the CNVs (and thus worthy of further validation and sequencing). 3. Explore associations between GSV genome-wide and brain volume. 4. Explore relationship between brain volumes (whole brain and regional for those who underwent brain MRI), head circumference and BMI. 5. Extrapolate this procedure to other regions covered by the Metabochip. Methods : - Examine and collect clinical informations, as well as molecular informations in these patients. - Analysis of MRI data in children and adults with BMI > 2SD. Compare changes to MRI data obtained in patients with monogenic forms of obesity (data from Lausanne study) and to underweight (BMI<-2SD) individuals from EGG. - Test whether opposite extremes of the phenotypic distribution may be highly informative Expected results : This is a highly focused study, pertaining to approximately 1 0/00 of the human genome. Yet it is clear that if successful, the lessons learned from this study could be extrapolated to other segments of the genome and would need validation and replication by additional studies. Altogether they will contribute to further explore the missing heritability and point to etiologic genes and pathways underlying these important health burdens.

A Potential Contributory Role for Ciliary Dysfunction in the 16p11.2 600 kb BP4-BP5 Pathology.

The 16p11.2 600 kb copy-number variants (CNVs) are associated with mirror phenotypes on BMI, head circumference, and brain volume and represent frequent genetic lesions in autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) and schizophrenia. Here we interrogated the transcriptome of individuals carrying reciprocal 16p11.2 CNVs. Transcript perturbations correlated with clinical endophenotypes and were enriched for genes associated with ASDs, abnormalities of head size, and ciliopathies. Ciliary gene expression was also perturbed in orthologous mouse models, raising the possibility that ciliary dysfunction contributes to 16p11.2 pathologies. In support of this hypothesis, we found structural ciliary defects in the CA1 hippocampal region of 16p11.2 duplication mice. Moreover, by using an established zebrafish model, we show genetic interaction between KCTD13, a key driver of the mirrored neuroanatomical phenotypes of the 16p11.2 CNV, and ciliopathy-associated genes. Overexpression of BBS7 rescues head size and neuroanatomical defects of kctd13 morphants, whereas suppression or overexpression of CEP290 rescues phenotypes induced by KCTD13 under- or overexpression, respectively. Our data suggest that dysregulation of ciliopathy genes contributes to the clinical phenotypes of these CNVs.

Defining the Effect of the 16p11.2 Duplication on Cognition, Behavior, and Medical Comorbidities.

IMPORTANCE: The 16p11.2 BP4-BP5 duplication is the copy number variant most frequently associated with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), schizophrenia, and comorbidities such as decreased body mass index (BMI). OBJECTIVES: To characterize the effects of the 16p11.2 duplication on cognitive, behavioral, medical, and anthropometric traits and to understand the specificity of these effects by systematically comparing results in duplication carriers and reciprocal deletion carriers, who are also at risk for ASD. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This international cohort study of 1006 study participants compared 270 duplication carriers with their 102 intrafamilial control individuals, 390 reciprocal deletion carriers, and 244 deletion controls from European and North American cohorts. Data were collected from August 1, 2010, to May 31, 2015 and analyzed from January 1 to August 14, 2015. Linear mixed models were used to estimate the effect of the duplication and deletion on clinical traits by comparison with noncarrier relatives. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Findings on the Full-Scale IQ (FSIQ), Nonverbal IQ, and Verbal IQ; the presence of ASD or other DSM-IV diagnoses; BMI; head circumference; and medical data. RESULTS: Among the 1006 study participants, the duplication was associated with a mean FSIQ score that was lower by 26.3 points between proband carriers and noncarrier relatives and a lower mean FSIQ score (16.2-11.4 points) in nonproband carriers. The mean overall effect of the deletion was similar (-22.1 points; P < .001). However, broad variation in FSIQ was found, with a 19.4- and 2.0-fold increase in the proportion of FSIQ scores that were very low (≤40) and higher than the mean (>100) compared with the deletion group (P < .001). Parental FSIQ predicted part of this variation (approximately 36.0% in hereditary probands). Although the frequency of ASD was similar in deletion and duplication proband carriers (16.0% and 20.0%, respectively), the FSIQ was significantly lower (by 26.3 points) in the duplication probands with ASD. There also were lower head circumference and BMI measurements among duplication carriers, which is consistent with the findings of previous studies. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The mean effect of the duplication on cognition is similar to that of the reciprocal deletion, but the variance in the duplication is significantly higher, with severe and mild subgroups not observed with the deletion. These results suggest that additional genetic and familial factors contribute to this variability. Additional studies will be necessary to characterize the predictors of cognitive deficits.

Reciprocal Effects on Neurocognitive and Metabolic Phenotypes in Mouse Models of 16p11.2 Deletion and Duplication Syndromes.

The 16p11.2 600 kb BP4-BP5 deletion and duplication syndromes have been associated with developmental delay; autism spectrum disorders; and reciprocal effects on the body mass index, head circumference and brain volumes. Here, we explored these relationships using novel engineered mouse models carrying a deletion (Del/+) or a duplication (Dup/+) of the Sult1a1-Spn region homologous to the human 16p11.2 BP4-BP5 locus. On a C57BL/6N inbred genetic background, Del/+ mice exhibited reduced weight and impaired adipogenesis, hyperactivity, repetitive behaviors, and recognition memory deficits. In contrast, Dup/+ mice showed largely opposite phenotypes. On a F1 C57BL/6N × C3B hybrid genetic background, we also observed alterations in social interaction in the Del/+ and the Dup/+ animals, with other robust phenotypes affecting recognition memory and weight. To explore the dosage effect of the 16p11.2 genes on metabolism, Del/+ and Dup/+ models were challenged with high fat and high sugar diet, which revealed opposite energy imbalance. Transcriptomic analysis revealed that the majority of the genes located in the Sult1a1-Spn region were sensitive to dosage with a major effect on several pathways associated with neurocognitive and metabolic phenotypes. Whereas the behavioral consequence of the 16p11 region genetic dosage was similar in mice and humans with activity and memory alterations, the metabolic defects were opposite: adult Del/+ mice are lean in comparison to the human obese phenotype and the Dup/+ mice are overweight in comparison to the human underweight phenotype. Together, these data indicate that the dosage imbalance at the 16p11.2 locus perturbs the expression of modifiers outside the CNV that can modulate the penetrance, expressivity and direction of effects in both humans and mice.

Feasibility and efficacy of subcutaneous amifostine therapy in patients with head and neck cancer treated with curative accelerated concomitant-boost radiation therapy.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the feasibility and efficacy of subcutaneous amifostine therapy in patients with head and neck cancer treated with curative accelerated radiotherapy (RT). DESIGN: Retrospective study. SETTING: University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland. PATIENTS: Thirty-three consecutive patients (male-female ratio, 4.5; median age, 54 years [age range, 39-76 years]). INTERVENTIONS: Between November 2000 and January 2003, the 33 patients were treated with curative definitive (n = 19) or postoperative (n = 14) RT with (n = 26) or without (n = 7) chemotherapy. All patients received conformal RT. Fractionation schedule consisted of concomitant-boost (Friday afternoon session) accelerated RT using 70 Gy (2 Gy per fraction) in 6 weeks in patients treated with definitive RT and 66 Gy (2 Gy per fraction) in 5 weeks and 3 days in the postoperative setting. Parotid glands received at least 50 Gy in all patients. Amifostine was administered to a total dose of 500 mg subcutaneously, 15 to 30 minutes before morning RT sessions. RESULTS: All patients received their planned treatment (including chemotherapy). Ten patients received the full schedule of amifostine (at least 25 injections), 9 received 20 to 24 doses, 4 received 10 to 19 doses, 5 received 5 to 9 doses, and 5 received fewer than 5 doses. Fifteen patients (45%) did not show any intolerance related to amifostine use. Amifostine therapy was discontinued because of nausea in 11 patients (33%) and hypotension in 6 patients (18%), and 1 patient refused treatment. No grade 3, amifostine-related, cutaneous toxic effects were observed. Radiotherapy-induced grade 3 acute toxic effects included mucositis in 14 patients (42%), erythema in 14 patients (42%), and dysphagia in 13 patients (39%). Late toxic effects included grade 2 or more xerostomia in 17 patients (51%) and fibrosis in 3 patients (9%). Grade 2 or more xerostomia was observed in 8 (42%) of 19 patients receiving 20 injections or more vs 9 (64%) of 14 patients receiving fewer than 20 injections (P = .15). CONCLUSIONS: Subcutaneous amifostine administration in combination with accelerated concomitant-boost RT with or without chemotherapy is feasible. The major adverse effect of subcutaneous administration was nausea despite prophylactic antiemetic medication, and hypotension was observed in only 6 patients (18%).

Concomitant cisplatin and hyperfractionated radiotherapy in locally advanced head and neck cancer: 10-year follow-up of a randomized phase III trial (SAKK 10/94).

Purpose: To compare the long-term outcome of treatment with concomitant cisplatin and hyperfractionated radiotherapy versus treatment with hyperfractionated radiotherapy alone in patients with locally advanced head and neck cancer.Methods and Materials: From July 1994 to July 2000, a total of 224 patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck were randomized to receive either hyperfractionated radiotherapy alone (median total dose, 74.4 Gy; 1.2 Gy twice daily; 5 days per week) or the same radiotherapy combined with two cycles of cisplatin (20 mg/m(2) for 5 consecutive days during weeks 1 and 5). The primary endpoint was the time to any treatment failure; secondary endpoints were locoregional failure, metastatic failure, overall survival, and late toxicity assessed according to Radiation Therapy Oncology Group criteria.Results: Median follow-up was 9.5 years (range, 0.1-15.4 years). Median time to any treatment failure was not significantly different between treatment arms (hazard ratio [HR], 1.2 [95% confidence interval [CM 0.9-1.7; p = 0.17]). Rates of locoregional failure-free survival (HR, 1.5 [95% CI, 1.1-2.1;p = 0.021), distant metastasis-free survival (HR, 1.6 [95% CI, 1.1-2.5; p = 0.021), and cancer-specific survival (HR, 1.6 [95% CI, 1.0-2.5;p = 0.03]) were significantly improved in the combined-treatment arm, with no difference in major late toxicity between treatment arms. However, overall survival was not significantly different (HR, 1.3 [95% CI, 0.9-1.8; p = 0.11]).Conclusions: After long-term follow-up, combined-treatment with cisplatin and hyperfractionated radiotherapy maintained improved rates of locoregional control, distant metastasis-free survival, and cancer-specific survival compared to that of hyperfractionated radiotherapy alone, with no difference in major late toxicity. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc.

Depression with atypical features and increase in obesity, body mass index, waist circumference, and fat mass: a prospective, population-based study.

IMPORTANCE: Depression and obesity are 2 prevalent disorders that have been repeatedly shown to be associated. However, the mechanisms and temporal sequence underlying this association are poorly understood. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the subtypes of major depressive disorder (MDD; melancholic, atypical, combined, or unspecified) are predictive of adiposity in terms of the incidence of obesity and changes in body mass index (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared), waist circumference, and fat mass. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This prospective population-based cohort study, CoLaus (Cohorte Lausannoise)/PsyCoLaus (Psychiatric arm of the CoLaus Study), with 5.5 years of follow-up included 3054 randomly selected residents (mean age, 49.7 years; 53.1% were women) of the city of Lausanne, Switzerland (according to the civil register), aged 35 to 66 years in 2003, who accepted the physical and psychiatric baseline and physical follow-up evaluations. EXPOSURES: Depression subtypes according to the DSM-IV. Diagnostic criteria at baseline and follow-up, as well as sociodemographic characteristics, lifestyle (alcohol and tobacco use and physical activity), and medication, were elicited using the semistructured Diagnostic Interview for Genetic Studies. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Changes in body mass index, waist circumference, and fat mass during the follow-up period, in percentage of the baseline value, and the incidence of obesity during the follow-up period among nonobese participants at baseline. Weight, height, waist circumference, and body fat (bioimpedance) were measured at baseline and follow-up by trained field interviewers. RESULTS: Only participants with the atypical subtype of MDD at baseline revealed a higher increase in adiposity during follow-up than participants without MDD. The associations between this MDD subtype and body mass index (β = 3.19; 95% CI, 1.50-4.88), incidence of obesity (odds ratio, 3.75; 95% CI, 1.24-11.35), waist circumference in both sexes (β = 2.44; 95% CI, 0.21-4.66), and fat mass in men (β = 16.36; 95% CI, 4.81-27.92) remained significant after adjustments for a wide range of possible cofounding. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The atypical subtype of MDD is a strong predictor of obesity. This emphasizes the need to identify individuals with this subtype of MDD in both clinical and research settings. Therapeutic measures to diminish the consequences of increased appetite during depressive episodes with atypical features are advocated.

Family history of cancer: pooled analysis in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium.

Alcohol and tobacco consumption are well-recognized risk factors for head and neck cancer (HNC). Evidence suggests that genetic predisposition may also play a role. Only a few epidemiologic studies, however, have considered the relation between HNC risk and family history of HNC and other cancers. We pooled individual-level data across 12 case-control studies including 8,967 HNC cases and 13,627 controls. We obtained pooled odds ratios (OR) using fixed and random effect models and adjusting for potential confounding factors. All statistical tests were two-sided. A family history of HNC in first-degree relatives increased the risk of HNC (OR=1.7, 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.2-2.3). The risk was higher when the affected relative was a sibling (OR=2.2, 95% CI 1.6-3.1) rather than a parent (OR=1.5, 95% CI 1.1-1.8) and for more distal HNC anatomic sites (hypopharynx and larynx). The risk was also higher, or limited to, in subjects exposed to tobacco. The OR rose to 7.2 (95% CI 5.5-9.5) among subjects with family history, who were alcohol and tobacco users. A weak but significant association (OR=1.1, 95% CI 1.0-1.2) emerged for family history of other tobacco-related neoplasms, particularly with laryngeal cancer (OR=1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.5). No association was observed for family history of nontobacco-related neoplasms and the risk of HNC (OR=1.0, 95% CI 0.9-1.1). Familial factors play a role in the etiology of HNC. In both subjects with and without family history of HNC, avoidance of tobacco and alcohol exposure may be the best way to avoid HNC.

Total exposure and exposure rate effects for alcohol and smoking and risk of head and neck cancer: a pooled analysis of case-control studies.

Although cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption increase risk for head and neck cancers, there have been few attempts to model risks quantitatively and to formally evaluate cancer site-specific risks. The authors pooled data from 15 case-control studies and modeled the excess odds ratio (EOR) to assess risk by total exposure (pack-years and drink-years) and its modification by exposure rate (cigarettes/day and drinks/day). The smoking analysis included 1,761 laryngeal, 2,453 pharyngeal, and 1,990 oral cavity cancers, and the alcohol analysis included 2,551 laryngeal, 3,693 pharyngeal, and 3,116 oval cavity cancers, with over 8,000 controls. Above 15 cigarettes/day, the EOR/pack-year decreased with increasing cigarettes/day, suggesting that greater cigarettes/day for a shorter duration was less deleterious than fewer cigarettes/day for a longer duration. Estimates of EOR/pack-year were homogeneous across sites, while the effects of cigarettes/day varied, indicating that the greater laryngeal cancer risk derived from differential cigarettes/day effects and not pack-years. EOR/drink-year estimates increased through 10 drinks/day, suggesting that greater drinks/day for a shorter duration was more deleterious than fewer drinks/day for a longer duration. Above 10 drinks/day, data were limited. EOR/drink-year estimates varied by site, while drinks/day effects were homogeneous, indicating that the greater pharyngeal/oral cavity cancer risk with alcohol consumption derived from the differential effects of drink-years and not drinks/day.