"Periodic crises": Clément Juglar between theories of crises and theories of business cycles

Business cycle theory is normally described as having evolved out of a previous tradition of writers focusing exclusively on crises. In this account, the turning point is seen as residing in Clément Juglar's contribution on commercial crises and their periodicity. It is well known that the champion of this view is Schumpeter, who propagated it on several occasions. The same author, however, pointed to a number of other writers who, before and at the same time as Juglar, stressed one or another of the aspects for which Juglar is credited primacy, including the recognition of periodicity and the identification of endogenous elements enabling the recognition of crises as a self-generating phenomenon. There is indeed a vast literature, both primary and secondary, relating to the debates on crises and fluctuations around the middle of the nineteenth century, from which it is apparent that Juglar's book Des Crises Commerciales et de leur Retour Périodique en France, en Angleterre et aux États-Unis (originally published in 1862 and very much revised and enlarged in 1889) did not come out of the blue but was one of the products of an intellectual climate inducing the thinking of crises not as unrelated events but as part of a more complex phenomenon consisting of recurring crises related to the development of the commercial world - an interpretation corroborated by the almost regular occurrence of crises at about 10-year intervals.

Cycles de vie d'une femme et tabac [The health consequences of smoking for women at different stages of their life].

Women who smoke underestimate the risks of smoking on their health, especially the impact of the anti-estrogenic and toxic effects of tobacco at the different stages of their life. The risk of female infertility related to tobacco is now well-proven, as is the risk of arterial and venous thrombotic event when tobacco is associated with oral contraception. Many foetal and maternal pathologies are linked to maternal smoking. Regarding post-menopausal women, smoking is associated with an increased osteoporotic and cardio-vascular risk. Doctors are at the first line to advise women and propose them help and assistance in their quit smoking process in a way adapted to their situation.

Turnover and accumulation of genetic diversity across large time-scale cycles of isolation and connection of populations.

Major climatic and geological events but also population history (secondary contacts) have generated cycles of population isolation and connection of long and short periods. Recent empirical and theoretical studies suggest that fast evolutionary processes might be triggered by such events, as commonly illustrated in ecology by the adaptive radiation of cichlid fishes (isolation and reconnection of lakes and watersheds) and in epidemiology by the fast adaptation of the influenza virus (isolation and reconnection in hosts). We test whether cyclic population isolation and connection provide the raw material (standing genetic variation) for species evolution and diversification. Our analytical results demonstrate that population isolation and connection can provide, to populations, a high excess of genetic diversity compared with what is expected at equilibrium. This excess is either cyclic (high allele turnover) or cumulates with time depending on the duration of the isolation and the connection periods and the mutation rate. We show that diversification rates of animal clades are associated with specific periods of climatic cycles in the Quaternary. We finally discuss the importance of our results for macroevolutionary patterns and for the inference of population history from genomic data.

Cumulative frequency-dependent selective episodes allow for rapid morph cycles and rock-paper-scissors dynamics in species with overlapping generations.

Rock-paper-scissors (RPS) dynamics, which maintain genetic polymorphisms over time through negative frequency-dependent (FD) selection, can evolve in short-lived species with no generational overlap, where they produce rapid morph frequency cycles. However, most species have overlapping generations and thus, rapid RPS dynamics are thought to require stronger FD selection, the existence of which yet needs to be proved. Here, we experimentally demonstrate that two cumulative selective episodes, FD sexual selection reinforced by FD selection on offspring survival, generate sufficiently strong selection to generate rapid morph frequency cycles in the European common lizard Zootoca vivipara, a multi-annual species with major generational overlap. These findings show that the conditions required for the evolution of RPS games are fulfilled by almost all species exhibiting genetic polymorphisms and suggest that RPS games may be responsible for the maintenance of genetic diversity in a wide range of species.

Phylogeographic patterning of mtDNA in the widely distributed harvest mouse (Micromys minutus) suggests dramatic cycles of range contraction and expansion during the mid- to late Pleistocene

We examined sequence variation in the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene (1140 bp, n = 73) and control region (842-851 bp, n = 74) in the Eurasian harvest mouse (Micromys minutus (Pallas, 1771)), with samples drawn from across its range, from Western Europe to Japan. Phylogeographic analyses revealed region-specific haplotype groupings combined with overall low levels of inter-regional genetic divergence. Despite the enormous intervening distance, European and East Asian samples showed a net nucleotide divergence of only 0.36%. Based on an evolutionary rate for the cytochrome b gene of 2.4%(.)(site(.)lineage(.)million years)(-1), the initial divergence time of these populations is estimated at around 80 000 years before present. Our findings are consistent with available fossil evidence that has recorded repeated cycles of extinction and recolonization of Europe by M. minutus through the Quaternary. The molecular data further suggest that recolonization occurred from refugia in the Central to East Asian region. Japanese haplotypes of M. minutus, with the exception of those from Tsushima Is., show limited nucleotide diversity (0.15%) compared with those found on the adjacent Korean Peninsula. This finding suggests recent colonization of the Japanese Archipelago, probably around the last glacial period, followed by rapid population growth.

Genome-wide RNA polymerase II profiles and RNA accumulation reveal kinetics of transcription and associated epigenetic changes during diurnal cycles.

Interactions of cell-autonomous circadian oscillators with diurnal cycles govern the temporal compartmentalization of cell physiology in mammals. To understand the transcriptional and epigenetic basis of diurnal rhythms in mouse liver genome-wide, we generated temporal DNA occupancy profiles by RNA polymerase II (Pol II) as well as profiles of the histone modifications H3K4me3 and H3K36me3. We used these data to quantify the relationships of phases and amplitudes between different marks. We found that rhythmic Pol II recruitment at promoters rather than rhythmic transition from paused to productive elongation underlies diurnal gene transcription, a conclusion further supported by modeling. Moreover, Pol II occupancy preceded mRNA accumulation by 3 hours, consistent with mRNA half-lives. Both methylation marks showed that the epigenetic landscape is highly dynamic and globally remodeled during the 24-hour cycle. While promoters of transcribed genes had tri-methylated H3K4 even at their trough activity times, tri-methylation levels reached their peak, on average, 1 hour after Pol II. Meanwhile, rhythms in tri-methylation of H3K36 lagged transcription by 3 hours. Finally, modeling profiles of Pol II occupancy and mRNA accumulation identified three classes of genes: one showing rhythmicity both in transcriptional and mRNA accumulation, a second class with rhythmic transcription but flat mRNA levels, and a third with constant transcription but rhythmic mRNAs. The latter class emphasizes widespread temporally gated posttranscriptional regulation in the mouse liver.