Robust Estimators of the Generalized Log-Gamma Distribution

We propose robust estimators of the generalized log-gamma distribution and, more generally, of location-shape-scale families of distributions. A (weighted) Q tau estimator minimizes a tau scale of the differences between empirical and theoretical quantiles. It is n(1/2) consistent; unfortunately, it is not asymptotically normal and, therefore, inconvenient for inference. However, it is a convenient starting point for a one-step weighted likelihood estimator, where the weights are based on a disparity measure between the model density and a kernel density estimate. The one-step weighted likelihood estimator is asymptotically normal and fully efficient under the model. It is also highly robust under outlier contamination. Supplementary materials are available online.

Fourth order pseudo maximum likelihood methods

We extend PML theory to account for information on the conditional moments up to order four, but without assuming a parametric model, to avoid a risk of misspecification of the conditional distribution. The key statistical tool is the quartic exponential family, which allows us to generalize the PML2 and QGPML1 methods proposed in Gourieroux et al. (1984) to PML4 and QGPML2 methods, respectively. An asymptotic theory is developed. The key numerical tool that we use is the Gauss-Freud integration scheme that solves a computational problem that has previously been raised in several fields. Simulation exercises demonstrate the feasibility and robustness of the methods [Authors]

Determining the best population-level alcohol consumption model and its impact on estimates of alcohol-attributable harms.

BACKGROUND: The goals of our study are to determine the most appropriate model for alcohol consumption as an exposure for burden of disease, to analyze the effect of the chosen alcohol consumption distribution on the estimation of the alcohol Population- Attributable Fractions (PAFs), and to characterize the chosen alcohol consumption distribution by exploring if there is a global relationship within the distribution. METHODS: To identify the best model, the Log-Normal, Gamma, and Weibull prevalence distributions were examined using data from 41 surveys from Gender, Alcohol and Culture: An International Study (GENACIS) and from the European Comparative Alcohol Study. To assess the effect of these distributions on the estimated alcohol PAFs, we calculated the alcohol PAF for diabetes, breast cancer, and pancreatitis using the three above-named distributions and using the more traditional approach based on categories. The relationship between the mean and the standard deviation from the Gamma distribution was estimated using data from 851 datasets for 66 countries from GENACIS and from the STEPwise approach to Surveillance from the World Health Organization. RESULTS: The Log-Normal distribution provided a poor fit for the survey data, with Gamma and Weibull distributions providing better fits. Additionally, our analyses showed that there were no marked differences for the alcohol PAF estimates based on the Gamma or Weibull distributions compared to PAFs based on categorical alcohol consumption estimates. The standard deviation of the alcohol distribution was highly dependent on the mean, with a unit increase in alcohol consumption associated with a unit increase in the mean of 1.258 (95% CI: 1.223 to 1.293) (R2 = 0.9207) for women and 1.171 (95% CI: 1.144 to 1.197) (R2 = 0. 9474) for men. CONCLUSIONS: Although the Gamma distribution and the Weibull distribution provided similar results, the Gamma distribution is recommended to model alcohol consumption from population surveys due to its fit, flexibility, and the ease with which it can be modified. The results showed that a large degree of variance of the standard deviation of the alcohol consumption Gamma distribution was explained by the mean alcohol consumption, allowing for alcohol consumption to be modeled through a Gamma distribution using only average consumption.

Estimating uncertainty of alcohol-attributable fractions for infectious and chronic diseases.

Background: Alcohol is a major risk factor for burden of disease and injuries globally. This paper presents a systematic method to compute the 95% confidence intervals of alcohol-attributable fractions (AAFs) with exposure and risk relations stemming from different sources.Methods: The computation was based on previous work done on modelling drinking prevalence using the gamma distribution and the inherent properties of this distribution. The Monte Carlo approach was applied to derive the variance for each AAF by generating random sets of all the parameters. A large number of random samples were thus created for each AAF to estimate variances. The derivation of the distributions of the different parameters is presented as well as sensitivity analyses which give an estimation of the number of samples required to determine the variance with predetermined precision, and to determine which parameter had the most impact on the variance of the AAFs.Results: The analysis of the five Asian regions showed that 150 000 samples gave a sufficiently accurate estimation of the 95% confidence intervals for each disease. The relative risk functions accounted for most of the variance in the majority of cases.Conclusions: Within reasonable computation time, the method yielded very accurate values for variances of AAFs.

On the problematic of reserving and stochastic loss models

Abstract Traditionally, the common reserving methods used by the non-life actuaries are based on the assumption that future claims are going to behave in the same way as they did in the past. There are two main sources of variability in the processus of development of the claims: the variability of the speed with which the claims are settled and the variability between the severity of the claims from different accident years. High changes in these processes will generate distortions in the estimation of the claims reserves. The main objective of this thesis is to provide an indicator which firstly identifies and quantifies these two influences and secondly to determine which model is adequate for a specific situation. Two stochastic models were analysed and the predictive distributions of the future claims were obtained. The main advantage of the stochastic models is that they provide measures of variability of the reserves estimates. The first model (PDM) combines one conjugate family Dirichlet - Multinomial with the Poisson distribution. The second model (NBDM) improves the first one by combining two conjugate families Poisson -Gamma (for distribution of the ultimate amounts) and Dirichlet Multinomial (for distribution of the incremental claims payments). It was found that the second model allows to find the speed variability in the reporting process and development of the claims severity as function of two above mentioned distributions' parameters. These are the shape parameter of the Gamma distribution and the Dirichlet parameter. Depending on the relation between them we can decide on the adequacy of the claims reserve estimation method. The parameters have been estimated by the Methods of Moments and Maximum Likelihood. The results were tested using chosen simulation data and then using real data originating from the three lines of business: Property/Casualty, General Liability, and Accident Insurance. These data include different developments and specificities. The outcome of the thesis shows that when the Dirichlet parameter is greater than the shape parameter of the Gamma, resulting in a model with positive correlation between the past and future claims payments, suggests the Chain-Ladder method as appropriate for the claims reserve estimation. In terms of claims reserves, if the cumulated payments are high the positive correlation will imply high expectations for the future payments resulting in high claims reserves estimates. The negative correlation appears when the Dirichlet parameter is lower than the shape parameter of the Gamma, meaning low expected future payments for the same high observed cumulated payments. This corresponds to the situation when claims are reported rapidly and fewer claims remain expected subsequently. The extreme case appears in the situation when all claims are reported at the same time leading to expectations for the future payments of zero or equal to the aggregated amount of the ultimate paid claims. For this latter case, the Chain-Ladder is not recommended.

Differential expression of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors (PPARs): tissue distribution of PPAR-alpha, -beta, and -gamma in the adult rat.

Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors (PPARs) are members of the nuclear hormone receptor superfamily that can be activated by various xenobiotics and natural fatty acids. These transcription factors primarily regulate genes involved in lipid metabolism and also play a role in adipocyte differentiation. We present the expression patterns of the PPAR subtypes in the adult rat, determined by in situ hybridization using specific probes for PPAR-alpha, -beta and -gamma, and by immunohistochemistry using a polyclonal antibody that recognizes the three rat PPAR subtypes. In numerous cell types from either ectodermal, mesodermal, or endodermal origin, PPARs are coexpressed, with relative levels varying between them from one cell type to the other. PPAR-alpha is highly expressed in hepatocytes, cardiomyocytes, enterocytes, and the proximal tubule cells of kidney. PPAR-beta is expressed ubiquitously and often at higher levels than PPAR-alpha and -gamma. PPAR-gamma is expressed predominantly in adipose tissue and the immune system. Our results suggest new potential directions to investigate the functions of the different PPAR subtypes.

Effects of the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR)-gamma agonist pioglitazone on renal and hormonal responses to salt in diabetic and hypertensive individuals.

Aims/Hypothesis: Glitazones are powerful insulin sensitisers prescribed for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. Their use is, however, associated with fluid retention and an increased risk of congestive heart failure. We previously demonstrated that pioglitazone increases proximal sodium reabsorption in healthy volunteers. This study examines the effects of pioglitazone on renal sodium handling in individuals prone to insulin resistance, i.e. those with diabetes and/or hypertension. Methods: In this double-blind randomised placebo-controlled four-way crossover study, we examined the effects of pioglitazone (45 mg daily during 6 weeks) or placebo on renal, systemic and hormonal responses to changes in sodium intake in 16 individuals, eight with type 2 diabetes and eight with hypertension. Results: Pioglitazone was associated with a rapid increase in body weight and an increase in diurnal proximal sodium reabsorption, without any change in renal haemodynamics or in the modulation of the renin-angiotensin aldosterone system to changes in salt intake. A compensatory increase in brain natriuretic peptide levels was observed. In spite of sodium retention, pioglitazone dissociated the blood-pressure response to salt and abolished salt sensitivity in salt-sensitive individuals. Conclusions/Interpretation: Pioglitazone increases diurnal proximal sodium retention in diabetic and hypertensive individuals. These effects cause fluid retention and may contribute to the increased incidence of congestive heart failure with glitazones.

Cytostatic lung perfusion results in heterogeneous spatial regional blood flow and drug distribution: evaluation of different cytostatic lung perfusion techniques in a porcine model.

OBJECTIVES: Comparison of doxorubicin uptake, leakage and spatial regional blood flow, and drug distribution was made for antegrade, retrograde, combined antegrade and retrograde isolated lung perfusion, and pulmonary artery infusion by endovascular inflow occlusion (blood flow occlusion), as opposed to intravenous administration in a porcine model. METHODS: White pigs underwent single-pass lung perfusion with doxorubicin (320 mug/mL), labeled 99mTc-microspheres, and Indian ink. Visual assessment of the ink distribution and perfusion scintigraphy of the perfused lung was performed. 99mTc activity and doxorubicin levels were measured by gamma counting and high-performance liquid chromatography on 15 tissue samples from each perfused lung at predetermined localizations. RESULTS: Overall doxorubicin uptake in the perfused lung was significantly higher (P = .001) and the plasma concentration was significantly lower (P < .0001) after all isolated lung perfusion techniques, compared with intravenous administration, without differences between them. Pulmonary artery infusion (blood flow occlusion) showed an equally high doxorubicin uptake in the perfused lung but a higher systemic leakage than surgical isolated lung perfusion (P < .0001). The geometric coefficients of variation of the doxorubicin lung tissue levels were 175%, 279%, 226%, and 151% for antegrade, retrograde, combined antegrade and retrograde isolated lung perfusion, and pulmonary artery infusion by endovascular inflow occlusion (blood flow occlusion), respectively, compared with 51% for intravenous administration (P = .09). 99mTc activity measurements of the samples paralleled the doxorubicin level measurements, indicating a trend to a more heterogeneous spatial regional blood flow and drug distribution after isolated lung perfusion and blood flow occlusion compared with intravenous administration. CONCLUSIONS: Cytostatic lung perfusion results in a high overall doxorubicin uptake, which is, however, heterogeneously distributed within the perfused lung.

Patterns of pain freedom response in 497 cases with classical trigeminal neuralgia and at least one year of follow-up treated by gamma knife radiosurgery

Purpose: To identify patterns of initially pain freedom response in patients with classical trigeminal neuralgia (CTN) with Gamma Knife surgery (GKS) and to compare their associated hypoesthesia and recurrence rates. Methods: In this study we analysed only 497 patients treated between July 1992 and November 2010, with a follow-up longer than 1 year, after excluding megadolichobasilar artery and multiple sclerosis related trigeminal neuralgia, as well as the second GKS treatments so as to have only cases with CTN and single radiosurgical treatment. GKS using a Gamma Knife (model B or C or Perfexion) was performed, based on both MRI and computer tomography (CT) targeting. A single 4-mm isocenter was positioned in the cisternal portion of the trigeminal nerve at a median distance of 7.8 mm (range 4.5-14) anteriorly to the emergence of the nerve. A median maximum dose of 85 Gy (range 70-90) was delivered. After empiric methods but also by using a chart with clear cut-off periods of pain free distribution, we were able to divide the initially pain free patients into 3 separate groups: within the first 48 hours, after 48 hours till 30 days and after 30 days, respectively. Results: The median follow- up period was 43.75 months (range 12-174.41). Four hundred and fifty-four patients (91.75%) were initially pain free in a median time of 10 days (range 1-459): 169 (37.2%) became pain free within the first 48 hours (pf<=48 h), compared to 194 (42.8%) between the 3-rd day and the day 30 (pf (>48 h, <=30 d)), inclusively and 91 (20%) patients after 30 days (pf>30d). Differences in terms of postoperative hypoesthesia were found with a p value of 0.014 as follows: the group pf<=48 h had 18 (13.7%) compared to pf (>48 h, <=30 d) with 30 (19%) and pf>30d with 22 (30.5%) patients developing a postoperative GKS hypoesthesia. One hundred and fifty seven (34.4%) patients initially pain free experienced a recurrence with a median delay of 24 months (range 0.62-150.06). There were no statistically significant differences between the three groups concerning recurrence (p value of 0.515). Conclusions: An important number of patients (169 cases, 37.2%) became pain free in the first 48 hours. Hypoesthesia rate was higher within the group becoming pain free after 30 days with a statistically significant difference between the three populations (p= 0.014). Further analysis will eventually help to elucidate the differences observed among groups.

The truncated mean of an asymmetric distribution

This paper investigates a simple procedure to estimate robustly the mean of an asymmetric distribution. The procedure removes the observations which are larger or smaller than certain limits and takes the arithmetic mean of the remaining observations, the limits being determined with the help of a parametric model, e.g., the Gamma, the Weibull or the Lognormal distribution. The breakdown point, the influence function, the (asymptotic) variance, and the contamination bias of this estimator are explored and compared numerically with those of competing estimates.

Cellular distribution of glucose and monocarboxylate transporters in human brain white matter and multiple sclerosis lesions.

To ensure efficient energy supply to the high demanding brain, nutrients are transported into brain cells via specific glucose (GLUT) and monocarboxylate transporters (MCT). Mitochondrial dysfunction and altered glucose metabolism are thought to play an important role in the progression of neurodegenerative diseases, including multiple sclerosis (MS). Here, we investigated the cellular localization of key GLUT and MCT proteins in human brain tissue of non-neurological controls and MS patients. We show that in control brain tissue GLUT and MCT proteins were abundantly expressed in a variety of central nervous system cells, particularly in microglia and endothelial cells. In active MS lesions, GLUTs and MCTs were highly expressed in infiltrating leukocytes and reactive astrocytes. Astrocytes manifest increased MCT1 staining and maintain GLUT expression in inactive lesions, whereas demyelinated axons exhibit significantly reduced GLUT3 and MCT2 immunoreactivity in inactive lesions. Finally, we demonstrated that the co-transcription factor peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma co-activator 1-alpha (PGC-1α), an important protein involved in energy metabolism, is highly expressed in reactive astrocytes in active MS lesions. Overexpression of PGC-1α in astrocyte-like cells resulted in increased production of several GLUT and MCT proteins. In conclusion, we provide for the first time a comprehensive overview of key nutrient transporters in white matter brain samples. Moreover, our data demonstrate an altered expression of these nutrient transporters in MS brain tissue, including a marked reduction of axonal GLUT3 and MCT2 expression in chronic lesions, which may impede efficient nutrient supply to the hypoxic demyelinated axons thereby contributing to the ongoing neurodegeneration in MS. GLIA 2014;62:1125-1141.

Differential expression of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-alpha, -beta, and -gamma during rat embryonic development.

The expression patterns of the three different peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR) isotypes have been determined during rat embryonic development by in situ hybridization. The expression of PPARalpha starts late in development, with increasing levels in organs such as liver, kidney, intestine, and pancreas, in which it will also be present later in adulthood to regulate its specific target genes. PPARalpha is also transiently expressed in the embryonic epidermis and central nervous system. PPARgamma presents a very restricted pattern of expression, being strongly expressed in brown adipose tissue, in which differentiation it has been shown to participate. Like PPARalpha, it is also expressed transiently in the central nervous system. Interestingly, PPARalpha, -beta and -gamma are coexpressed at high levels in brown adipose tissue. Finally, the high and ubiquitous expression of PPARbeta suggests some fundamental role(s) that this receptor might play throughout development.

A novel IFN-gamma regulated human melanoma associated antigen gp33-38 defined by monoclonal antibody Me14/D12. I. Identification and immunochemical characterization.

A novel melanoma-associated differentiation Ag whose surface expression can be enhanced or induced by IFN-gamma was identified by mAb Me14/D12. Testing of numerous tumor cell lines and tumor tissue sections showed that Me14/D12-defined Ag was present not only on melanoma but also on other tumor lines of neuroectodermal origin such as gliomas and neuroblastomas and on some lymphoblastic B cell lines, on monocytes and macrophages. Immunoprecipitation by mAb Me14/D12 of lysates from [35S]methionine-labeled melanoma cells analyzed by SDS-PAGE revealed two polypeptide chains of 33 and 38 KDa, both under reducing and nonreducing conditions. Cross-linking experiments indicated that the two chains were present at the cell surface as a dimeric structure. Two-dimensional gel electrophoresis showed that the two chains of 33 and 38 KDa had isoelectric points of 6.2 and 5.7, respectively. Treatment of the melanoma cells with tunicamycin, an inhibitor of N-linked glycosylation, resulted in a reduction of the Mr from 33 to 24 KDa and from 38 to 26 KDa. Peptide maps obtained after Staphylococcus aureus V8 protease digestion showed no shared peptides between the two chains. Although biochemical data indicate that Me14/D12 molecules do not correspond to any known MHC class II Ag, their dimeric structure, tissue distribution, and regulation of IFN-gamma suggest that they could represent a new member of the MHC class II family.

Patterns of pain-free response in 497 cases of classic trigeminal neuralgia treated with Gamma Knife surgery and followed up for least 1 year.

Object The goal of this study was to establish whether clear patterns of initial pain freedom could be identified when treating patients with classic trigeminal neuralgia (TN) by using Gamma Knife surgery (GKS). The authors compared hypesthesia and pain recurrence rates to see if statistically significant differences could be found. Methods Between July 1992 and November 2010, 737 patients presenting with TN underwent GKS and prospective evaluation at Timone University Hospital in Marseille, France. In this study the authors analyzed the cases of 497 of these patients, who participated in follow-up longer than 1 year, did not have megadolichobasilar artery- or multiple sclerosis-related TN, and underwent GKS only once; in other words, the focus was on cases of classic TN with a single radiosurgical treatment. Radiosurgery was performed with a Leksell Gamma Knife (model B, C, or Perfexion) using both MR and CT imaging targeting. A single 4-mm isocenter was positioned in the cisternal portion of the trigeminal nerve at a median distance of 7.8 mm (range 4.5-14 mm) anterior to the emergence of the nerve. A median maximum dose of 85 Gy (range 70-90 Gy) was delivered. Using empirical methods and assisted by a chart with clear cut-off periods of pain free distribution, the authors were able to divide patients who experienced freedom from pain into 3 separate groups: patients who became pain free within the first 48 hours post-GKS; those who became pain free between 48 hours and 30 days post-GKS; and those who became pain free more than 30 days after GKS. Results The median age in the 497 patients was 68.3 years (range 28.1-93.2 years). The median follow-up period was 43.75 months (range 12-174.41 months). Four hundred fifty-four patients (91.34%) were initially pain free within a median time of 10 days (range 1-459 days) after GKS. One hundred sixty-nine patients (37.2%) became pain free within the first 48 hours (Group PF(≤ 48 hours)), 194 patients (42.8%) between posttreatment Day 3 and Day 30 (Group PF((>48 hours, ≤ 30 days))), and 91 patients (20%) after 30 days post-GKS (Group PF(>30 days)). Differences in postoperative hypesthesia were found: in Group PF(≤ 48 hours) 18 patients (13.7%) developed postoperative hypesthesia, compared with 30 patients (19%) in Group PF((>48 hours, ≤ 30 days)) and 22 patients (30.6%) in Group PF(>30 days) (p = 0.014). One hundred fifty-seven patients (34.4%) who initially became free from pain experienced a recurrence of pain with a median delay of 24 months (range 0.62-150.06 months). There were no statistically significant differences between the patient groups with respect to pain recurrence: 66 patients (39%) in Group PF(≤ 48 hours) experienced pain recurrence, compared with 71 patients (36.6%) in Group PF((>48 hours, ≤ 30 days)) and 27 patients (29.7%) in Group PF(>30 days) (p = 0.515). Conclusions A substantial number of patients (169 cases, 37.2%) became pain free within the first 48 hours. The rate of hypesthesia was higher in patients who became pain free more than 30 days after GKS, with a statistically significant difference between patient groups (p = 0.014).

The effects of gamma-hydroxybutyrate, baclofen and GABAB receptors on brain activity and sleep in mice and humans

Currently, there is an increased interest in γ-hydroxybutyric acid (GHB) and its effects onsleep. This compound, sometimes referred to as 'rape drug', was recently approved as atreatment for the sleep disorder narcolepsy. Although several studies suggest that GHBinduces slow-wave sleep duration and improves sleep quality by increasing EEG slow-waveactivity, others question its ability to induce physiological sleep. GHB's mechanism of actionis still unclear, although in vivo and in vitro it seems to act at high doses as a low-affinityagonist of GABAB receptors. Furthermore, the role GABAB receptors play in sleep and theelectroencephalogram (EEG) is largely unknown.The aim of this project was therefore to investigate the effects of GHB on sleep and EEG, theinvolvement of GABAB receptors in mediating these effects, as well as the intrinsic role ofeach GABAB receptor subunit in the regulation of sleep. Thus, we administered GHB andbaclofen (BAC, a high-affinity agonist at GABAB receptor) to mice lacking the different GABABreceptor subunits and to healthy human volunteers.Our results, both in mice and humans, showed that GHB produced slow waves exclusivelythrough the stimulation of GABAB receptors, but did not induce physiological sleepnecessary to reduce sleep need and to increase cognitive performance. Unlike GHB, BACaffected the homeostatic regulation of sleep (sleep need) and induced a delayedhypersomnia. Finally, GABAB receptor and its subunits seem to play an important role insleep and in particular its circadian distribution.