Overcoming the rare species modelling paradox: test of a novel hierarchical framework with an Iberian endemic plant

Rare species have restricted geographic ranges, habitat specialization, and/or small population sizes. Datasets on rare species distribution usually have few observations, limited spatial accuracy and lack of valid absences; conversely they provide comprehensive views of species distributions allowing to realistically capture most of their realized environmental niche. Rare species are the most in need of predictive distribution modelling but also the most difficult to model. We refer to this contrast as the "rare species modelling paradox" and propose as a solution developing modelling approaches that deal with a sufficiently large set of predictors, ensuring that statistical models aren't overfitted. Our novel approach fulfils this condition by fitting a large number of bivariate models and averaging them with a weighted ensemble approach. We further propose that this ensemble forecasting is conducted within a hierarchic multi-scale framework. We present two ensemble models for a test species, one at regional and one at local scale, each based on the combination of 630 models. In both cases, we obtained excellent spatial projections, unusual when modelling rare species. Model results highlight, from a statistically sound approach, the effects of multiple drivers in a same modelling framework and at two distinct scales. From this added information, regional models can support accurate forecasts of range dynamics under climate change scenarios, whereas local models allow the assessment of isolated or synergistic impacts of changes in multiple predictors. This novel framework provides a baseline for adaptive conservation, management and monitoring of rare species at distinct spatial and temporal scales.

"Pied de Charcot": un diagnostic à ne pas manquer [Charcot osteoarthropathy: don't miss it!].

Charcot neuropathic osteoarthropathy (CNO) is a destructive process affecting the bone and joint structure of diabetic patients and resulting from peripheral neuropathy. It is a limb threatening condition resulting in dramatic deformities associated with severe morbi-mortality. The diagnosis is mostly made by the observation of inflammatory signs and higlight the importance of prompt foot evaluation. Imaging studies may help confirm the diagnosis and the severity of the condition but lack of specificity. The goal of the treatment is to maintain or achieve structural stability of the foot and ankle to prevent further deformity and plantar dislocation. The scientific evidences aren't strong enough to recommend bisphosphonates or acute surgical treatment. Surgery is unanimusly recommended to prevent secondary ulceration.