New Genetic and Linguistic Analyses Show Ancient Human Influence on Baobab Evolution and Distribution in Australia

This study investigates the role of human agency in the gene flow and geographical distribution of the Australian baobab, Adansonia gregorii. The genus Adansonia is a charismatic tree endemic to Africa, Madagascar, and northwest Australia that has long been valued by humans for its multiple uses. The distribution of genetic variation in baobabs in Africa has been partially attributed to human-mediated dispersal over millennia, but this relationship has never been investigated for the Australian species. We combined genetic and linguistic data to analyse geographic patterns of gene flow and movement of word-forms for A. gregorii in the Aboriginal languages of northwest Australia. Comprehensive assessment of genetic diversity showed weak geographic structure and high gene flow. Of potential dispersal vectors, humans were identified as most likely to have enabled gene flow across biogeographic barriers in northwest Australia. Genetic-linguistic analysis demonstrated congruence of gene flow patterns and directional movement of Aboriginal loanwords for A. gregorii. These findings, along with previous archaeobotanical evidence from the Late Pleistocene and Holocene, suggest that ancient humans significantly influenced the geographic distribution of Adansonia in northwest Australia.

Niche, distribution and global change : modeling insights into biogeography and conservation biology Olivier Broennimann

RESUME Les évidences montrant que les changements globaux affectent la biodiversité s'accumulent. Les facteurs les plus influant dans ce processus sont les changements et destructions d'habitat, l'expansion des espèces envahissantes et l'impact des changements climatiques. Une évaluation pertinente de la réponse des espèces face à ces changements est essentielle pour proposer des mesures permettant de réduire le déclin actuel de la biodiversité. La modélisation de la répartition d'espèces basée sur la niche (NBM) est l'un des rares outils permettant cette évaluation. Néanmoins, leur application dans le contexte des changements globaux repose sur des hypothèses restrictives et demande une interprétation critique. Ce travail présente une série d'études de cas investiguant les possibilités et limitations de cette approche pour prédire l'impact des changements globaux. Deux études traitant des menaces sur les espèces rares et en danger d'extinction sont présentées. Les caractéristiques éco-géographiques de 118 plantes avec un haut degré de priorité de conservation sont revues. La prévalence des types de rareté sont analysées en relation avec leur risque d'extinction UICN. La revue souligne l'importance de la conservation à l'échelle régionale. Une évaluation de la rareté à échelle globale peut être trompeuse pour certaine espèces car elle ne tient pas en compte des différents degrés de rareté que présente une espèce à différentes échelles spatiales. La deuxième étude test une approche pour améliorer l'échantillonnage d'espèces rares en incluant des phases itératives de modélisation et d'échantillonnage sur le terrain. L'application de l'approche en biologie de la conservation (illustrée ici par le cas du chardon bleu, Eryngium alpinum), permettrait de réduire le temps et les coûts d'échantillonnage. Deux études sur l'impact des changements climatiques sur la faune et la flore africaine sont présentées. La première étude évalue la sensibilité de 227 mammifères africains face aux climatiques d'ici 2050. Elle montre qu'un nombre important d'espèces pourrait être bientôt en danger d'extinction et que les parcs nationaux africains (principalement ceux situé en milieux xériques) pourraient ne pas remplir leur mandat de protection de la biodiversité dans le futur. La seconde étude modélise l'aire de répartition en 2050 de 975 espèces de plantes endémiques du sud de l'Afrique. L'étude propose l'inclusion de méthodes améliorant la prédiction des risques liés aux changements climatiques. Elle propose également une méthode pour estimer a priori la sensibilité d'une espèce aux changements climatiques à partir de ses propriétés écologiques et des caractéristiques de son aire de répartition. Trois études illustrent l'utilisation des modèles dans l'étude des invasions biologiques. Une première étude relate l'expansion de la laitue sáuvage (Lactuca serriola) vers le nord de l'Europe en lien avec les changements du climat depuis 250 ans. La deuxième étude analyse le potentiel d'invasion de la centaurée tachetée (Centaures maculosa), une mauvaise herbe importée en Amérique du nord vers 1890. L'étude apporte la preuve qu'une espèce envahissante peut occuper une niche climatique différente après introduction sur un autre continent. Les modèles basés sur l'aire native prédisent de manière incorrecte l'entier de l'aire envahie mais permettent de prévoir les aires d'introductions potentielles. Une méthode alternative, incluant la calibration du modèle à partir des deux aires où l'espèce est présente, est proposée pour améliorer les prédictions de l'invasion en Amérique du nord. Je présente finalement une revue de la littérature sur la dynamique de la niche écologique dans le temps et l'espace. Elle synthétise les récents développements théoriques concernant le conservatisme de la niche et propose des solutions pour améliorer la pertinence des prédictions d'impact des changements climatiques et des invasions biologiques. SUMMARY Evidences are accumulating that biodiversity is facing the effects of global change. The most influential drivers of change in ecosystems are land-use change, alien species invasions and climate change impacts. Accurate projections of species' responses to these changes are needed to propose mitigation measures to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Niche-based models (NBM) currently represent one of the only tools for such projections. However, their application in the context of global changes relies on restrictive assumptions, calling for cautious interpretations. In this thesis I aim to assess the effectiveness and shortcomings of niche-based models for the study of global change impacts on biodiversity through the investigation of specific, unsolved limitations and suggestion of new approaches. Two studies investigating threats to rare and endangered plants are presented. I review the ecogeographic characteristic of 118 endangered plants with high conservation priority in Switzerland. The prevalence of rarity types among plant species is analyzed in relation to IUCN extinction risks. The review underlines the importance of regional vs. global conservation and shows that a global assessment of rarity might be misleading for some species because it can fail to account for different degrees of rarity at a variety of spatial scales. The second study tests a modeling framework including iterative steps of modeling and field surveys to improve the sampling of rare species. The approach is illustrated with a rare alpine plant, Eryngium alpinum and shows promise for complementing conservation practices and reducing sampling costs. Two studies illustrate the impacts of climate change on African taxa. The first one assesses the sensitivity of 277 mammals at African scale to climate change by 2050 in terms of species richness and turnover. It shows that a substantial number of species could be critically endangered in the future. National parks situated in xeric ecosystems are not expected to meet their mandate of protecting current species diversity in the future. The second study model the distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa. The study proposes the inclusion of new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies. It also investigates the possibility to estimate a priori the sensitivity of a species to climate change from the geographical distribution and ecological proprieties of the species. Three studies illustrate the application of NBM in the study of biological invasions. The first one investigates the Northwards expansion of Lactuca serriola L. in Europe during the last 250 years in relation with climate changes. In the last two decades, the species could not track climate change due to non climatic influences. A second study analyses the potential invasion extent of spotted knapweed, a European weed first introduced into North America in the 1890s. The study provides one of the first empirical evidence that an invasive species can occupy climatically distinct niche spaces following its introduction into a new area. Models fail to predict the current full extent of the invasion, but correctly predict areas of introduction. An alternative approach, involving the calibration of models with pooled data from both ranges, is proposed to improve predictions of the extent of invasion on models based solely on the native range. I finally present a review on the dynamic nature of ecological niches in space and time. It synthesizes the recent theoretical developments to the niche conservatism issues and proposes solutions to improve confidence in NBM predictions of the impacts of climate change and species invasions on species distributions.

Do geographic distribution, niche property and life form explain plants' vulnerability to global change?

We modelled the future distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa distributed among seven life forms, including new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies by: (i) using only endemic species as a way to capture the full realized niche of species, (ii) considering the direct impact of human pressure on landscape and biodiversity jointly with climate, and (iii) taking species' migration into account. Our analysis shows important promises for predicting the impacts of climate change in conjunction with land transformation. We have shown that the endemic flora of Southern Africa on average decreases with 41% in species richness among habitats and with 39% on species distribution range for the most optimistic scenario. We also compared the patterns of species' sensitivity with global change across life forms, using ecological and geographic characteristics of species. We demonstrate here that species and life form vulnerability to global changes can be partly explained according to species' (i) geographical distribution along climatic and biogeographic gradients, like climate anomalies, (ii) niche breadth or (iii) proximity to barrier preventing migration. Our results confirm that the sensitivity of a given species to global environmental changes depends upon its geographical distribution and ecological proprieties, and makes it possible to estimate a priori its potential sensitivity to these changes.

Does a shift in host plants trigger speciation in the Alpine leaf beetle Oreina speciosissima (Coleoptera, Chrysomelidae)?

Background: Within the Coleoptera, the largest order in the animal kingdom, the exclusively herbivorous Chrysomelidae are recognized as one of the most species rich beetle families. The evolutionary processes that have fueled radiation into the more than thirty-five thousand currently recognized leaf beetle species remain partly unresolved. The prominent role of leaf beetles in the insect world, their omnipresence across all terrestrial biomes and their economic importance as common agricultural pest organisms make this family particularly interesting for studying the mechanisms that drive diversification. Here we specifically focus on two ecotypes of the alpine leaf beetle Oreina speciosissima (Scop.), which have been shown to exhibit morphological differences in male genitalia roughly corresponding to the subspecies Oreina speciosissima sensu stricto and Oreina speciosissima troglodytes. In general the two ecotypes segregate along an elevation gradient and by host plants: Oreina speciosissima sensu stricto colonizes high forb vegetation at low altitude and Oreina speciosissima troglodytes is found in stone run vegetation at higher elevations. Both host plants and leaf beetles have a patchy geographical distribution. Through use of gene sequencing and genome fingerprinting (AFLP) we analyzed the genetic structure and habitat use of Oreina speciosissima populations from the Swiss Alps to examine whether the two ecotypes have a genetic basis. By investigating a wide range of altitudes and focusing on the structuring effect of habitat types, we aim to provide answers regarding the factors that drive adaptive radiation in this phytophagous leaf beetle.Results: While little phylogenetic resolution was observed based on the sequencing of four DNA regions, the topology and clustering resulting from AFLP genotyping grouped specimens according to their habitat, mostly defined by plant associations. A few specimens with intermediate morphologies clustered with one of the two ecotypes or formed separate clusters consistent with habitat differences. These results were discussed in an ecological speciation framework.Conclusions: The question of whether this case of ecological differentiation occurred in sympatry or allopatry remains open. Still, the observed pattern points towards ongoing divergence between the two ecotypes which is likely driven by a recent shift in host plant use.

Characterization of SKI-1/S1P-mediated processing of Arenavirus glycoprotein precursors

Arenaviruses are rodent-born world-wide distributed negative strand RNA viruses that comprise a number of important human pathogens including Lassa virus (LASV) which causes more than 3 00'000 infections annually in Western Africa. Lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) is the prototypic member of the arenavirus family, which is divided in two major subgroups according to serological properties and geographical distribution, the Old World and New World arenaviruses. The envelope glycoprotein precursors (GPCs) of arenaviruses have to undergo proteolytic processing to acquire biological function and to be incorporated into progeny virions. A cellular enzyme is responsible for this processing: the Subtilisin Kexin Isozyme-1 or Site-1 protease (SKI- 1/S1P). In this thesis we have studied the relationship between SKI-1/S1P and the envelope GPs of arenaviruses. In a first project, we investigated the molecular interactions between SKI-1/SIP and arenavirus GPCs. Using SKI-1/SIP mutants, we confirmed previously published observations locating LCMV GPC and LASV GPC processing in the Late Golgi/TGN and ER/cis-Golgi, respectively. A single mutation in the cleavage site of LCMV was sufficient to re-locate SKI- 1/SIP-mediated processing from the late Golgi/TGN to the ER/cis-Golgi. We then demonstrated that the transmembrane domain, the C-terminal tail and the phosphorylation sites of SKI-1/S1P are dispensable for GPC processing. Additionally we identified a SKI- 1/S1P mutant defective for autoprocessing at site Β, B' that was selectively impaired in processing of viral GPCs but not cellular substrates. We also showed that a soluble variant of SKI-1/SIΡ was unable to cleave envelope GPs at the cell surface when added in the culture medium. This study highlighted a new target for small molecule inhibitors that would specifically impair GPC but not cellular substrate processing. In a second project, we identified and characterized two residues: LASV GPC Y253 and SKI-1/S1P Y285 that are important for the SKI-1/SIP-mediated LASV GPC cleavage. An alignment of GPC sequences revealed a conserved aromatic residue in P7 position in the GPCs of Old World and Clade C of New World arenaviruses. Mutations in GPC at position P7 impaired processing efficiency. In SKI-1/S1P, mutating Y285 into A negatively affected processing of substrates containing aromatic residues in P7, without affecting others. This property could be used to develop specific drugs targeting SKI-1/SIP-mediated cleavage of LASV GPC without affecting cellular substrates. As a third project we studied the role of the SKI-1/SIP-mediated processing and the unusual stable signal peptide (SSP) for the folding and secretion of soluble forms of the ectodomain of LASV and LCMV glycoproteins. We provide evidence that the transmembrane domain and the cytosolic tail are crucial for the stability of the prefusion conformation of arenavirus GP and that the SSP is required for transport and processing of full-length GP, but not the soluble ectodomain per se. Taken together, these results will lead to a better understanding of the complex interactions between arenavirus GPCs and SKI-1/S IP, paving the avenue for the development of novel anti-arenaviral therapeutics. - Les Arenavirus sont des virus à ARN négatif distribués mondialement et portés par les rongeurs. Cette famille de virus comprend des virus hautement pathogènes pour l'homme comme le virus de Lassa (LASV) qui cause plus de 300Ό00 infections par année en Afrique de l'Ouest. Le virus de la chorioméningite lymphocytaire (LCMV) est le représentant de cette famille qui est divisée en deux sous-groupes selon des critères sérologiques et de distributions géographiques: arenavirus du Nouveau et de l'Ancien monde. Les glycoprotéines d'enveloppe de ces virus (GPCs) doivent être clivées pour être incorporées dans le virus et ainsi lui permettre d'être infectieux. Une enzyme cellulaire est responsable de ce clivage : la Subtilisin Kexin Isozyme-1 ou protéase Site-1 (SKI-l/SlP). Dans cette thèse, nous avons étudié la relation entre cette enzyme cellulaire et les GPs des arenavirus. Dans un premier temps, nous avons étudié les interactions moléculaires entre SKI- 1/S1P et GPC. A l'aide de mutants de SKI-l/SlP, nous avons confirmé des résultats précédemment publiés montrant que les glycoprotéines d'enveloppe de LASV sont clivés dans le réticulum endoplasmique/cis-Golgi alors que celles de LCMV sont clivées dans le Golgi tardif/TGN. Une seule mutation dans le site de clivage de la glycoprotéine de LCMV est suffisante pour changer le compartiment cellulaire dans lequel est clivée cette glycoprotéine. Ensuite, nous avons démontré que le domaine transmembranaire, la partie cytosolique C-terminale ainsi que les sites de phosphorylations de cette enzyme ne sont pas indispensables pour permettre le clivage de GPC. De plus, nous avons identifié un mutant de SKI-l/SlP dans lequel Γ autoprocessing au site B,B' est impossible, incapable de cliver GPC mais toujours pleinement fonctionnelle envers ses substrats cellulaires. Nous avons également démontré qu'une forme soluble de SKI-l/SlP ajoutée dans le milieu de culture n'est pas capable de couper GPC à la surface de la cellule. Cette étude a défini une nouvelle cible potentielle pour un médicament qui inhiberait le clivage des glycoprotéines des arenavirus sans affecter les processus normaux de la cellule. Dans un second project, nous avons identifié deux acides aminés, LASV GPC Y253 et SKI-l/SlP Y285, qui sont important pour le clivage de LASV GPC. Un alignement des séquences de clivage des GPCs a montré qu'un résidu aromatique est conservé en position P7 du site de clivage chez tous les arenavirus de l'Ancien monde et dans le clade C des arenavirus du Nouveau monde. Une mutation de cet acide aminée dans GPC réduit l'efficacité de clivage par SKI-l/SlP. Mutation de la tyrosine 285 de SKI-l/SlP en alanine affecte négativement le clivage des substrats contenant un résidu aromatique en position P7 sans affecter les autres. Cette propriété pourrait être utilisée pour le développement de médicaments spécifiques ciblant le clivage de GPC. Finalement, nous avons étudié le rôle du processing accomplit par SKI-l/SlP et du signal peptide pour le pliage et la sécrétion de formes solubles des glycoprotéines de LASV et LCMV. Nous avons montré que le domaine transmembranaire et la partie cytosolique de GP sont crucials pour la stabilité de la conformation pre-fusionnelle des GPs et que SSP est nécessaire pour le transport et le processing de GP, mais pas de son ecto-domaine soluble. En conclusion, les résultats obtenus durant cette thèse permettrons de mieux comprendre les interactions complexes entre SKI-l/SlP et les glycoprotéines des arenavirus, ouvrant le chemin pour le développement de nouveaux médicaments anti-arénaviraux.

A species delimitation approach in the Trochulus sericeus/hispidus complex reveals two cryptic species within a sharp contact zone.

BACKGROUND: Mitochondrial DNA sequencing increasingly results in the recognition of genetically divergent, but morphologically cryptic lineages. Species delimitation approaches that rely on multiple lines of evidence in areas of co-occurrence are particularly powerful to infer their specific status. We investigated the species boundaries of two cryptic lineages of the land snail genus Trochulus in a contact zone, using mitochondrial and nuclear DNA marker as well as shell morphometrics. RESULTS: Both mitochondrial lineages have a distinct geographical distribution with a small zone of co-occurrence. In the same area, we detected two nuclear genotype clusters, each being highly significantly associated to one mitochondrial lineage. This association however had exceptions: a small number of individuals in the contact zone showed intermediate genotypes (4%) or cytonuclear disequilibrium (12%). Both mitochondrial lineage and nuclear cluster were statistically significant predictors for the shell shape indicating morphological divergence. Nevertheless, the lineage morphospaces largely overlapped (low posterior classification success rate of 69% and 78%, respectively): the two lineages are truly cryptic. CONCLUSION: The integrative approach using multiple lines of evidence supported the hypothesis that the investigated Trochulus lineages are reproductively isolated species. In the small contact area, however, the lineages hybridise to a limited extent. This detection of a hybrid zone adds an instance to the rare reported cases of hybridisation in land snails.

Concept de first responders en Suisse romande: état des lieux et perspectives [Concept of first responders in Western Switzerland: current situation and future perspectives].

The notion of "First Responder" (FR) refers to the system of first-aid volunteers who act to initiate the first-aid care before the classical emergency help arrives. In 2011, the French-speaking Switzerland counts 19 groups, divided up between four cantons (Fribourg, Vaud, Neuchâtel, Valais). The geographical distribution of those FR shows the stakes of these peripherical areas, with the accessibility difficulties for the emergency services, and a low demography of ambulances and doctors. The number of interventions carried out by the FR has significantly increased during the last years. The association of a quality formation, an excellent knowledge of the ground and a quick intervention has a positive impact on the survival of the patients with vital emergency or traumatic conditions.

Geochemistry of the thermal springs and fumaroles of Basse-Terre Island, Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles

The purpose of this work was to study jointly the volcanic-hydrothermal system of the high-risk volcano La Soufriere, in the southern part of Basse-Terre, and the geothermal area of Bouillante, on its western coast, to derive an all-embracing and coherent conceptual geochemical model that provides the necessary basis for adequate volcanic surveillance and further geothermal exploration. The active andesitic dome of La Soufriere has erupted eight times since 1660, most recently in 1976-1977. All these historic eruptions have been phreatic. High-salinity, Na-CI geothermal liquids circulate in the Bouillante geothermal reservoir, at temperatures close to 250 degrees C. These Na-CI solutions rise toward the surface, undergo boiling and mixing with groundwater and/or seawater, and feed most Na-CI thermal springs in the central Bouillante area. The Na-Cl thermal springs are surrounded by Na-HCO3 thermal springs and by the Na-Cl thermal spring of Anse a la Barque (a groundwater slightly mixed with seawater), which are all heated through conductive transfer. The two main fumarolic fields of La Soufriere area discharge vapors formed through boiling of hydrothermal aqueous solutions at temperatures of 190-215 degrees C below the ``Ty'' fault area and close to 260 degrees C below the dome summit. The boiling liquid producing the vapors of the Ty fault area has SD and delta(18)O values relatively similar to those of the Na-CI liquids of the Bouillante geothermal reservoir, whereas the liquid originating the vapors of the summit fumaroles is strongly enriched in O-18, due to input of magmatic fluids from below. This process is also responsible for the paucity of CH;I in the fumaroles. The thermal features around La Soufriere dome include: (a) Ca-SO4 springs, produced through absorption of hydrothermal vapors in shallow groundwaters; (b) conductively heated, Ca-Na-HCO3 springs; and (c) two Ca-Na-Cl springs produced through mixing of shallow Ca-SO4 waters and deep Na-Cl hydrothermal liquids. The geographical distribution of the different thermal features of La Soufriere area indicates the presence of: (a) a central zone dominated by the ascent of steam, which either discharges at the surface in the fumarolic fields or is absorbed in shallow groundwaters; and (b) an outer zone, where the shallow groundwaters are heated through conduction or addition of Na-Cl liquids coming from hydrothermal aquifer(s).

Complicated intra-abdominal infections in Europe: a comprehensive review of the CIAO study.

ABSTRACT: The CIAO Study ("Complicated Intra-Abdominal infection Observational" Study) is a multicenter investigation performed in 68 medical institutions throughout Europe over the course of a 6-month observational period (January-June 2012).Patients with either community-acquired or healthcare-associated complicated intra-abdominal infections (IAIs) were included in the study.2,152 patients with a mean age of 53.8 years (range: 4-98 years) were enrolled in the study. 46.3% of the patients were women and 53.7% were men. Intraperitoneal specimens were collected from 62.2% of the enrolled patients, and from these samples, a variety of microorganisms were collectively identified.The overall mortality rate was 7.5% (163/2.152).According to multivariate analysis of the compiled data, several criteria were found to be independent variables predictive of patient mortality, including patient age, the presence of an intestinal non-appendicular source of infection (colonic non-diverticular perforation, complicated diverticulitis, small bowel perforation), a delayed initial intervention (a delay exceeding 24 hours), sepsis and septic shock in the immediate post-operative period, and ICU admission.Given the sweeping geographical distribution of the participating medical centers, the CIAO Study gives an accurate description of the epidemiological, clinical, microbiological, and treatment profiles of complicated intra-abdominal infections (IAIs) throughout Europe.

Modelling the distribution of bats in relation to landscape structure in a temperate mountain environment

1. Landscape modification is often considered the principal cause of population decline in many bat species. Thus, schemes for bat conservation rely heavily on knowledge about species-landscape relationships. So far, however, few studies have quantified the possible influence of landscape structure on large-scale spatial patterns in bat communities. 2. This study presents quantitative models that use landscape structure to predict (i) spatial patterns in overall community composition and (ii) individual species' distributions through canonical correspondence analysis and generalized linear models, respectively. A geographical information system (GIS) was then used to draw up maps of (i) overall community patterns and (ii) distribution of potential species' habitats. These models relied on field data from the Swiss Jura mountains. 3. Fight descriptors of landscape structure accounted for 30% of the variation in bat community composition. For some species, more than 60% of the variance in distribution could be explained by landscape structure. Elevation, forest or woodland cover, lakes and suburbs, were the most frequent predictors. 4. This study shows that community composition in bats is related to landscape structure through species-specific relationships to resources. Due to their nocturnal activities and the difficulties of remote identification, a comprehensive bat census is rarely possible, and we suggest that predictive modelling of the type described here provides an indispensable conservation tool.

Species distribution models for conservation-oriented studies in Switzerland : filling data and tools gaps

SUMMARYSpecies distribution models (SDMs) represent nowadays an essential tool in the research fields of ecology and conservation biology. By combining observations of species occurrence or abundance with information on the environmental characteristic of the observation sites, they can provide information on the ecology of species, predict their distributions across the landscape or extrapolate them to other spatial or time frames. The advent of SDMs, supported by geographic information systems (GIS), new developments in statistical models and constantly increasing computational capacities, has revolutionized the way ecologists can comprehend species distributions in their environment. SDMs have brought the tool that allows describing species realized niches across a multivariate environmental space and predict their spatial distribution. Predictions, in the form of probabilistic maps showing the potential distribution of the species, are an irreplaceable mean to inform every single unit of a territory about its biodiversity potential. SDMs and the corresponding spatial predictions can be used to plan conservation actions for particular species, to design field surveys, to assess the risks related to the spread of invasive species, to select reserve locations and design reserve networks, and ultimately, to forecast distributional changes according to scenarios of climate and/or land use change.By assessing the effect of several factors on model performance and on the accuracy of spatial predictions, this thesis aims at improving techniques and data available for distribution modelling and at providing the best possible information to conservation managers to support their decisions and action plans for the conservation of biodiversity in Switzerland and beyond. Several monitoring programs have been put in place from the national to the global scale, and different sources of data now exist and start to be available to researchers who want to model species distribution. However, because of the lack of means, data are often not gathered at an appropriate resolution, are sampled only over limited areas, are not spatially explicit or do not provide a sound biological information. A typical example of this is data on 'habitat' (sensu biota). Even though this is essential information for an effective conservation planning, it often has to be approximated from land use, the closest available information. Moreover, data are often not sampled according to an established sampling design, which can lead to biased samples and consequently to spurious modelling results. Understanding the sources of variability linked to the different phases of the modelling process and their importance is crucial in order to evaluate the final distribution maps that are to be used for conservation purposes.The research presented in this thesis was essentially conducted within the framework of the Landspot Project, a project supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation. The main goal of the project was to assess the possible contribution of pre-modelled 'habitat' units to model the distribution of animal species, in particular butterfly species, across Switzerland. While pursuing this goal, different aspects of data quality, sampling design and modelling process were addressed and improved, and implications for conservation discussed. The main 'habitat' units considered in this thesis are grassland and forest communities of natural and anthropogenic origin as defined in the typology of habitats for Switzerland. These communities are mainly defined at the phytosociological level of the alliance. For the time being, no comprehensive map of such communities is available at the national scale and at fine resolution. As a first step, it was therefore necessary to create distribution models and maps for these communities across Switzerland and thus to gather and collect the necessary data. In order to reach this first objective, several new developments were necessary such as the definition of expert models, the classification of the Swiss territory in environmental domains, the design of an environmentally stratified sampling of the target vegetation units across Switzerland, the development of a database integrating a decision-support system assisting in the classification of the relevés, and the downscaling of the land use/cover data from 100 m to 25 m resolution.The main contributions of this thesis to the discipline of species distribution modelling (SDM) are assembled in four main scientific papers. In the first, published in Journal of Riogeography different issues related to the modelling process itself are investigated. First is assessed the effect of five different stepwise selection methods on model performance, stability and parsimony, using data of the forest inventory of State of Vaud. In the same paper are also assessed: the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5 prior to model calibration; the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences; four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation; and finally, the effect of integrating predictor interactions. Results allowed to specifically enhance the GRASP tool (Generalized Regression Analysis and Spatial Predictions) that now incorporates new selection methods and the possibility of dealing with interactions among predictors as well as spatial autocorrelation. The contribution of different sources of remotely sensed information to species distribution models was also assessed. The second paper (to be submitted) explores the combined effects of sample size and data post-stratification on the accuracy of models using data on grassland distribution across Switzerland collected within the framework of the Landspot project and supplemented with other important vegetation databases. For the stratification of the data, different spatial frameworks were compared. In particular, environmental stratification by Swiss Environmental Domains was compared to geographical stratification either by biogeographic regions or political states (cantons). The third paper (to be submitted) assesses the contribution of pre- modelled vegetation communities to the modelling of fauna. It is a two-steps approach that combines the disciplines of community ecology and spatial ecology and integrates their corresponding concepts of habitat. First are modelled vegetation communities per se and then these 'habitat' units are used in order to model animal species habitat. A case study is presented with grassland communities and butterfly species. Different ways of integrating vegetation information in the models of butterfly distribution were also evaluated. Finally, a glimpse to climate change is given in the fourth paper, recently published in Ecological Modelling. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for analysing range shifts, namely a catalogue of the possible patterns of change in the distribution of a species along elevational or other environmental gradients and an improved quantitative methodology to identify and objectively describe these patterns. The methodology was developed using data from the Swiss national common breeding bird survey and the article presents results concerning the observed shifts in the elevational distribution of breeding birds in Switzerland.The overall objective of this thesis is to improve species distribution models as potential inputs for different conservation tools (e.g. red lists, ecological networks, risk assessment of the spread of invasive species, vulnerability assessment in the context of climate change). While no conservation issues or tools are directly tested in this thesis, the importance of the proposed improvements made in species distribution modelling is discussed in the context of the selection of reserve networks.RESUMELes modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) représentent aujourd'hui un outil essentiel dans les domaines de recherche de l'écologie et de la biologie de la conservation. En combinant les observations de la présence des espèces ou de leur abondance avec des informations sur les caractéristiques environnementales des sites d'observation, ces modèles peuvent fournir des informations sur l'écologie des espèces, prédire leur distribution à travers le paysage ou l'extrapoler dans l'espace et le temps. Le déploiement des SDMs, soutenu par les systèmes d'information géographique (SIG), les nouveaux développements dans les modèles statistiques, ainsi que la constante augmentation des capacités de calcul, a révolutionné la façon dont les écologistes peuvent comprendre la distribution des espèces dans leur environnement. Les SDMs ont apporté l'outil qui permet de décrire la niche réalisée des espèces dans un espace environnemental multivarié et prédire leur distribution spatiale. Les prédictions, sous forme de carte probabilistes montrant la distribution potentielle de l'espèce, sont un moyen irremplaçable d'informer chaque unité du territoire de sa biodiversité potentielle. Les SDMs et les prédictions spatiales correspondantes peuvent être utilisés pour planifier des mesures de conservation pour des espèces particulières, pour concevoir des plans d'échantillonnage, pour évaluer les risques liés à la propagation d'espèces envahissantes, pour choisir l'emplacement de réserves et les mettre en réseau, et finalement, pour prévoir les changements de répartition en fonction de scénarios de changement climatique et/ou d'utilisation du sol. En évaluant l'effet de plusieurs facteurs sur la performance des modèles et sur la précision des prédictions spatiales, cette thèse vise à améliorer les techniques et les données disponibles pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces et à fournir la meilleure information possible aux gestionnaires pour appuyer leurs décisions et leurs plans d'action pour la conservation de la biodiversité en Suisse et au-delà. Plusieurs programmes de surveillance ont été mis en place de l'échelle nationale à l'échelle globale, et différentes sources de données sont désormais disponibles pour les chercheurs qui veulent modéliser la distribution des espèces. Toutefois, en raison du manque de moyens, les données sont souvent collectées à une résolution inappropriée, sont échantillonnées sur des zones limitées, ne sont pas spatialement explicites ou ne fournissent pas une information écologique suffisante. Un exemple typique est fourni par les données sur 'l'habitat' (sensu biota). Même s'il s'agit d'une information essentielle pour des mesures de conservation efficaces, elle est souvent approximée par l'utilisation du sol, l'information qui s'en approche le plus. En outre, les données ne sont souvent pas échantillonnées selon un plan d'échantillonnage établi, ce qui biaise les échantillons et par conséquent les résultats de la modélisation. Comprendre les sources de variabilité liées aux différentes phases du processus de modélisation s'avère crucial afin d'évaluer l'utilisation des cartes de distribution prédites à des fins de conservation.La recherche présentée dans cette thèse a été essentiellement menée dans le cadre du projet Landspot, un projet soutenu par le Fond National Suisse pour la Recherche. L'objectif principal de ce projet était d'évaluer la contribution d'unités 'd'habitat' pré-modélisées pour modéliser la répartition des espèces animales, notamment de papillons, à travers la Suisse. Tout en poursuivant cet objectif, différents aspects touchant à la qualité des données, au plan d'échantillonnage et au processus de modélisation sont abordés et améliorés, et leurs implications pour la conservation des espèces discutées. Les principaux 'habitats' considérés dans cette thèse sont des communautés de prairie et de forêt d'origine naturelle et anthropique telles que définies dans la typologie des habitats de Suisse. Ces communautés sont principalement définies au niveau phytosociologique de l'alliance. Pour l'instant aucune carte de la distribution de ces communautés n'est disponible à l'échelle nationale et à résolution fine. Dans un premier temps, il a donc été nécessaire de créer des modèles de distribution de ces communautés à travers la Suisse et par conséquent de recueillir les données nécessaires. Afin d'atteindre ce premier objectif, plusieurs nouveaux développements ont été nécessaires, tels que la définition de modèles experts, la classification du territoire suisse en domaines environnementaux, la conception d'un échantillonnage environnementalement stratifié des unités de végétation cibles dans toute la Suisse, la création d'une base de données intégrant un système d'aide à la décision pour la classification des relevés, et le « downscaling » des données de couverture du sol de 100 m à 25 m de résolution. Les principales contributions de cette thèse à la discipline de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces (SDM) sont rassemblées dans quatre articles scientifiques. Dans le premier article, publié dans le Journal of Biogeography, différentes questions liées au processus de modélisation sont étudiées en utilisant les données de l'inventaire forestier de l'Etat de Vaud. Tout d'abord sont évalués les effets de cinq méthodes de sélection pas-à-pas sur la performance, la stabilité et la parcimonie des modèles. Dans le même article sont également évalués: l'effet de la pondération des absences afin d'assurer une prévalence de 0.5 lors de la calibration du modèle; l'effet de limiter les absences au-delà de l'enveloppe définie par les présences; quatre méthodes différentes pour l'intégration de l'autocorrélation spatiale; et enfin, l'effet de l'intégration d'interactions entre facteurs. Les résultats présentés dans cet article ont permis d'améliorer l'outil GRASP qui intègre désonnais de nouvelles méthodes de sélection et la possibilité de traiter les interactions entre variables explicatives, ainsi que l'autocorrélation spatiale. La contribution de différentes sources de données issues de la télédétection a également été évaluée. Le deuxième article (en voie de soumission) explore les effets combinés de la taille de l'échantillon et de la post-stratification sur le la précision des modèles. Les données utilisées ici sont celles concernant la répartition des prairies de Suisse recueillies dans le cadre du projet Landspot et complétées par d'autres sources. Pour la stratification des données, différents cadres spatiaux ont été comparés. En particulier, la stratification environnementale par les domaines environnementaux de Suisse a été comparée à la stratification géographique par les régions biogéographiques ou par les cantons. Le troisième article (en voie de soumission) évalue la contribution de communautés végétales pré-modélisées à la modélisation de la faune. C'est une approche en deux étapes qui combine les disciplines de l'écologie des communautés et de l'écologie spatiale en intégrant leurs concepts de 'habitat' respectifs. Les communautés végétales sont modélisées d'abord, puis ces unités de 'habitat' sont utilisées pour modéliser les espèces animales. Une étude de cas est présentée avec des communautés prairiales et des espèces de papillons. Différentes façons d'intégrer l'information sur la végétation dans les modèles de répartition des papillons sont évaluées. Enfin, un clin d'oeil aux changements climatiques dans le dernier article, publié dans Ecological Modelling. Cet article propose un cadre conceptuel pour l'analyse des changements dans la distribution des espèces qui comprend notamment un catalogue des différentes formes possibles de changement le long d'un gradient d'élévation ou autre gradient environnemental, et une méthode quantitative améliorée pour identifier et décrire ces déplacements. Cette méthodologie a été développée en utilisant des données issues du monitoring des oiseaux nicheurs répandus et l'article présente les résultats concernant les déplacements observés dans la distribution altitudinale des oiseaux nicheurs en Suisse.L'objectif général de cette thèse est d'améliorer les modèles de distribution des espèces en tant que source d'information possible pour les différents outils de conservation (par exemple, listes rouges, réseaux écologiques, évaluation des risques de propagation d'espèces envahissantes, évaluation de la vulnérabilité des espèces dans le contexte de changement climatique). Bien que ces questions de conservation ne soient pas directement testées dans cette thèse, l'importance des améliorations proposées pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces est discutée à la fin de ce travail dans le contexte de la sélection de réseaux de réserves.

The importance of host spatial distribution for parasite specialization and speciation: a comparative study of bird fleas (Siphonaptera : Ceratophyllidae)

1. The environment of parasites is determined largely by their hosts. Variation in host quality, abundance and spatial distribution affects the balance between selection within hosts and gene flow between hosts, and this should determine the evolution of a parasite's host-range and its propensity to locally adapt and speciate. 2. We investigated the relationship between host spatial distribution and (1) parasite host range, (2) parasite mobility and (3) parasite geographical range, in a comparative study of a major group of avian ectoparasites, the birds fleas belonging to the Ceratophyllidae (Siphonaptera). 3. Flea species parasitizing colonial birds had narrower host ranges than those infesting territorial nesters or birds with an intermediate level of nest aggregation. 4. The potential mobility and geographical ranges of fleas decreased with increasing level of aggregation of their hosts and increased with the fleas' host ranges. 5. Birds with aggregated nest distribution harboured more flea species mainly due to a larger number of specialists than solitarily nesting hosts. 6. These results emphasize the importance of host spatial distribution for the evolution of specialization, and for local adaptation and speciation in Ceratophyllid bird fleas.

Are niche-based species distribution models transferable in space?

Aim To assess the geographical transferability of niche-based species distribution models fitted with two modelling techniques. Location Two distinct geographical study areas in Switzerland and Austria, in the subalpine and alpine belts. Methods Generalized linear and generalized additive models (GLM and GAM) with a binomial probability distribution and a logit link were fitted for 54 plant species, based on topoclimatic predictor variables. These models were then evaluated quantitatively and used for spatially explicit predictions within (internal evaluation and prediction) and between (external evaluation and prediction) the two regions. Comparisons of evaluations and spatial predictions between regions and models were conducted in order to test if species and methods meet the criteria of full transferability. By full transferability, we mean that: (1) the internal evaluation of models fitted in region A and B must be similar; (2) a model fitted in region A must at least retain a comparable external evaluation when projected into region B, and vice-versa; and (3) internal and external spatial predictions have to match within both regions. Results The measures of model fit are, on average, 24% higher for GAMs than for GLMs in both regions. However, the differences between internal and external evaluations (AUC coefficient) are also higher for GAMs than for GLMs (a difference of 30% for models fitted in Switzerland and 54% for models fitted in Austria). Transferability, as measured with the AUC evaluation, fails for 68% of the species in Switzerland and 55% in Austria for GLMs (respectively for 67% and 53% of the species for GAMs). For both GAMs and GLMs, the agreement between internal and external predictions is rather weak on average (Kulczynski's coefficient in the range 0.3-0.4), but varies widely among individual species. The dominant pattern is an asymmetrical transferability between the two study regions (a mean decrease of 20% for the AUC coefficient when the models are transferred from Switzerland and 13% when they are transferred from Austria). Main conclusions The large inter-specific variability observed among the 54 study species underlines the need to consider more than a few species to test properly the transferability of species distribution models. The pronounced asymmetry in transferability between the two study regions may be due to peculiarities of these regions, such as differences in the ranges of environmental predictors or the varied impact of land-use history, or to species-specific reasons like differential phenotypic plasticity, existence of ecotypes or varied dependence on biotic interactions that are not properly incorporated into niche-based models. The lower variation between internal and external evaluation of GLMs compared to GAMs further suggests that overfitting may reduce transferability. Overall, a limited geographical transferability calls for caution when projecting niche-based models for assessing the fate of species in future environments.

The interplay of spatial and climatic landscapes in the genetic distribution of a South American parrot

AimOur aim was to understand the interplay of heterogeneous climatic and spatial landscapes in shaping the distribution of nuclear microsatellite variation in burrowing parrots, Cyanoliseus patagonus. Given the marked phenotypic differences between populations of burrowing parrots we hypothesized an important role of geographical as well climatic heterogeneity in the population structure of this species. LocationSouthern South America. MethodsWe applied a landscape genetics approach to investigate the explicit patterns of genetic spatial autocorrelation based on both geography and climate using spatial principal component analysis (sPCA). This necessitated a novel statistical estimation of the species climatic landscape, considering temperature- and precipitation-based variables separately to evaluate their weight in shaping the distribution of genetic variation in our model system. ResultsGeographical and climatic heterogeneity successfully explained molecular variance in burrowing parrots. sPCA divided the species distribution into two main areas, Patagonia and the pre-Andes, which were connected by an area of geographical and climatic transition. Moreover, sPCA revealed cryptic and conservation-relevant genetic structure: the pre-Andean populations and the transition localities were each divided into two groups, each management units for conservation. Main conclusionssPCA, a method originally developed for spatial genetics, allowed us to unravel the genetic structure related to spatial and climatic landscapes and to visualize these patterns in landscape space. These novel climatic inferences underscore the importance of our modified sPCA approach in revealing how climatic variables can drive cryptic patterns of genetic structure, making the approach potentially useful in the study of any species distributed over a climatically heterogeneous landscape.