Tapping the innovation potential of corporate engagement with stakeholders

Summary This dissertation explores how stakeholder dialogue influences corporate processes, and speculates about the potential of this phenomenon - particularly with actors, like non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and other representatives of civil society, which have received growing attention against a backdrop of increasing globalisation and which have often been cast in an adversarial light by firms - as a source of teaming and a spark for innovation in the firm. The study is set within the context of the introduction of genetically-modified organisms (GMOs) in Europe. Its significance lies in the fact that scientific developments and new technologies are being generated at an unprecedented rate in an era where civil society is becoming more informed, more reflexive, and more active in facilitating or blocking such new developments, which could have the potential to trigger widespread changes in economies, attitudes, and lifestyles, and address global problems like poverty, hunger, climate change, and environmental degradation. In the 1990s, companies using biotechnology to develop and offer novel products began to experience increasing pressure from civil society to disclose information about the risks associated with the use of biotechnology and GMOs, in particular. Although no harmful effects for humans or the environment have been factually demonstrated even to date (2008), this technology remains highly-contested and its introduction in Europe catalysed major companies to invest significant financial and human resources in stakeholder dialogue. A relatively new phenomenon at the time, with little theoretical backing, dialogue was seen to reflect a move towards greater engagement with stakeholders, commonly defined as those "individuals or groups with which. business interacts who have a 'stake', or vested interest in the firm" (Carroll, 1993:22) with whom firms are seen to be inextricably embedded (Andriof & Waddock, 2002). Regarding the organisation of this dissertation, Chapter 1 (Introduction) describes the context of the study, elaborates its significance for academics and business practitioners as an empirical work embedded in a sector at the heart of the debate on corporate social responsibility (CSR). Chapter 2 (Literature Review) traces the roots and evolution of CSR, drawing on Stakeholder Theory, Institutional Theory, Resource Dependence Theory, and Organisational Learning to establish what has already been developed in the literature regarding the stakeholder concept, motivations for engagement with stakeholders, the corporate response to external constituencies, and outcomes for the firm in terms of organisational learning and change. I used this review of the literature to guide my inquiry and to develop the key constructs through which I viewed the empirical data that was gathered. In this respect, concepts related to how the firm views itself (as a victim, follower, leader), how stakeholders are viewed (as a source of pressure and/or threat; as an asset: current and future), corporate responses (in the form of buffering, bridging, boundary redefinition), and types of organisational teaming (single-loop, double-loop, triple-loop) and change (first order, second order, third order) were particularly important in building the key constructs of the conceptual model that emerged from the analysis of the data. Chapter 3 (Methodology) describes the methodology that was used to conduct the study, affirms the appropriateness of the case study method in addressing the research question, and describes the procedures for collecting and analysing the data. Data collection took place in two phases -extending from August 1999 to October 2000, and from May to December 2001, which functioned as `snapshots' in time of the three companies under study. The data was systematically analysed and coded using ATLAS/ti, a qualitative data analysis tool, which enabled me to sort, organise, and reduce the data into a manageable form. Chapter 4 (Data Analysis) contains the three cases that were developed (anonymised as Pioneer, Helvetica, and Viking). Each case is presented in its entirety (constituting a `within case' analysis), followed by a 'cross-case' analysis, backed up by extensive verbatim evidence. Chapter 5 presents the research findings, outlines the study's limitations, describes managerial implications, and offers suggestions for where more research could elaborate the conceptual model developed through this study, as well as suggestions for additional research in areas where managerial implications were outlined. References and Appendices are included at the end. This dissertation results in the construction and description of a conceptual model, grounded in the empirical data and tied to existing literature, which portrays a set of elements and relationships deemed important for understanding the impact of stakeholder engagement for firms in terms of organisational learning and change. This model suggests that corporate perceptions about the nature of stakeholder influence the perceived value of stakeholder contributions. When stakeholders are primarily viewed as a source of pressure or threat, firms tend to adopt a reactive/defensive posture in an effort to manage stakeholders and protect the firm from sources of outside pressure -behaviour consistent with Resource Dependence Theory, which suggests that firms try to get control over extemal threats by focussing on the relevant stakeholders on whom they depend for critical resources, and try to reverse the control potentially exerted by extemal constituencies by trying to influence and manipulate these valuable stakeholders. In situations where stakeholders are viewed as a current strategic asset, firms tend to adopt a proactive/offensive posture in an effort to tap stakeholder contributions and connect the organisation to its environment - behaviour consistent with Institutional Theory, which suggests that firms try to ensure the continuing license to operate by internalising external expectations. In instances where stakeholders are viewed as a source of future value, firms tend to adopt an interactive/innovative posture in an effort to reduce or widen the embedded system and bring stakeholders into systems of innovation and feedback -behaviour consistent with the literature on Organisational Learning, which suggests that firms can learn how to optimize their performance as they develop systems and structures that are more adaptable and responsive to change The conceptual model moreover suggests that the perceived value of stakeholder contribution drives corporate aims for engagement, which can be usefully categorised as dialogue intentions spanning a continuum running from low-level to high-level to very-high level. This study suggests that activities aimed at disarming critical stakeholders (`manipulation') providing guidance and correcting misinformation (`education'), being transparent about corporate activities and policies (`information'), alleviating stakeholder concerns (`placation'), and accessing stakeholder opinion ('consultation') represent low-level dialogue intentions and are experienced by stakeholders as asymmetrical, persuasive, compliance-gaining activities that are not in line with `true' dialogue. This study also finds evidence that activities aimed at redistributing power ('partnership'), involving stakeholders in internal corporate processes (`participation'), and demonstrating corporate responsibility (`stewardship') reflect high-level dialogue intentions. This study additionally finds evidence that building and sustaining high-quality, trusted relationships which can meaningfully influence organisational policies incline a firm towards the type of interactive, proactive processes that underpin the development of sustainable corporate strategies. Dialogue intentions are related to type of corporate response: low-level intentions can lead to buffering strategies; high-level intentions can underpin bridging strategies; very high-level intentions can incline a firm towards boundary redefinition. The nature of corporate response (which encapsulates a firm's posture towards stakeholders, demonstrated by the level of dialogue intention and the firm's strategy for dealing with stakeholders) favours the type of learning and change experienced by the organisation. This study indicates that buffering strategies, where the firm attempts to protect itself against external influences and cant' out its existing strategy, typically lead to single-loop learning, whereby the firm teams how to perform better within its existing paradigm and at most, improves the performance of the established system - an outcome associated with first-order change. Bridging responses, where the firm adapts organisational activities to meet external expectations, typically leads a firm to acquire new behavioural capacities characteristic of double-loop learning, whereby insights and understanding are uncovered that are fundamentally different from existing knowledge and where stakeholders are brought into problem-solving conversations that enable them to influence corporate decision-making to address shortcomings in the system - an outcome associated with second-order change. Boundary redefinition suggests that the firm engages in triple-loop learning, where the firm changes relations with stakeholders in profound ways, considers problems from a whole-system perspective, examining the deep structures that sustain the system, producing innovation to address chronic problems and develop new opportunities - an outcome associated with third-order change. This study supports earlier theoretical and empirical studies {e.g. Weick's (1979, 1985) work on self-enactment; Maitlis & Lawrence's (2007) and Maitlis' (2005) work and Weick et al's (2005) work on sensegiving and sensemaking in organisations; Brickson's (2005, 2007) and Scott & Lane's (2000) work on organisational identity orientation}, which indicate that corporate self-perception is a key underlying factor driving the dynamics of organisational teaming and change. Such theorizing has important implications for managerial practice; namely, that a company which perceives itself as a 'victim' may be highly inclined to view stakeholders as a source of negative influence, and would therefore be potentially unable to benefit from the positive influence of engagement. Such a selfperception can blind the firm from seeing stakeholders in a more positive, contributing light, which suggests that such firms may not be inclined to embrace external sources of innovation and teaming, as they are focussed on protecting the firm against disturbing environmental influences (through buffering), and remain more likely to perform better within an existing paradigm (single-loop teaming). By contrast, a company that perceives itself as a 'leader' may be highly inclined to view stakeholders as a source of positive influence. On the downside, such a firm might have difficulty distinguishing when stakeholder contributions are less pertinent as it is deliberately more open to elements in operating environment (including stakeholders) as potential sources of learning and change, as the firm is oriented towards creating space for fundamental change (through boundary redefinition), opening issues to entirely new ways of thinking and addressing issues from whole-system perspective. A significant implication of this study is that potentially only those companies who see themselves as a leader are ultimately able to tap the innovation potential of stakeholder dialogue.

Areas of high conservation value in Georgia: present and future threats by invasive alien plants

Georgia is known for its extraordinary rich biodiversity of plants, which may now be threatened due to the spread of invasive alien plants (IAP). We aimed to identify (i) the most prominent IAP out of 9 selected potentially invasive and harmful IAP IAP by predicting thetheir distribution of 9 selected IAP under current and future climate conditions in Georgia as well as in its 43 Protected Areas, as a proxy for areas of high conservation value and (ii) the Protected Areas most at risk due to these IAP. We used species distribution models based on 6 climate variables and then filtered the obtained distributions based on maps of soil and vegetation types, and on recorded occurrences, resulting into the predicted ecological distribution of the 9 IAP's at a resolution of 1km2. We foundOur habitat suitability analysis showed that Ambrosia artemisiifolia, (24% and 40%) Robinia pseudoacaia (14% and 19%) and Ailanthus altissima (9% and 11%) have the largest potential distribution are the most abundant (predicted % area covered)d) IAP, with Ailanthus altissima the potentially most increasing one over the next fifty years (from 9% to 13% and from 11% to 25%), for Georgia and the Protected Areas, respectively. Furthermore, our results show indicate two areas in Georgia that are under specifically high threat, i.e. the area around Tbilisi and an area in the western part of Georgia (Adjara), both at lower altitudes. Our procedure to identify areas of high conservation value most at risk by IAP has been applied for the first time. It will help national authorities in prioritizing their measures to protect Georgia's outstanding biodiversity from the negative impact of IAP.

Will climate change drive alien invasive plants into areas of high protection value? An improved model-based regional assessment to prioritise the management of invasions.

Species distribution models (SDMs) studies suggest that, without control measures, the distribution of many alien invasive plant species (AIS) will increase under climate and land-use changes. Due to limited resources and large areas colonised by invaders, management and monitoring resources must be prioritised. Choices depend on the conservation value of the invaded areas and can be guided by SDM predictions. Here, we use a hierarchical SDM framework, complemented by connectivity analysis of AIS distributions, to evaluate current and future conflicts between AIS and high conservation value areas. We illustrate the framework with three Australian wattle (Acacia) species and patterns of conservation value in Northern Portugal. Results show that protected areas will likely suffer higher pressure from all three Acacia species under future climatic conditions. Due to this higher predicted conflict in protected areas, management might be prioritised for Acacia dealbata and Acacia melanoxylon. Connectivity of AIS suitable areas inside protected areas is currently lower than across the full study area, but this would change under future environmental conditions. Coupled SDM and connectivity analysis can support resource prioritisation for anticipation and monitoring of AIS impacts. However, further tests of this framework over a wide range of regions and organisms are still required before wide application.

Valeur ajoutée de la supervision du médecin-assistant par un médecin de famille dans une permanence [Added value of family practitioners' supervision of junior doctors in a walk-in clinic].

The pending workforce crisis in family medicine has triggered various initiatives. This article describes the PMU-FLON walk-in clinic, a project of the Institute of General Medicine University of Lausanne. The working conditions in this clinic are close to that of a family practice. Doctors in training are supervised by family doctors who work part-time in the clinic. The objective is to improve training in the various fields of family medicine, from technical skills (improving optimal use of diagnostic tools), to integrating patients' requests in a more global patient-centered approach. This new educational model allows doctors in training to benefit from the specific approaches of different trainers. It will contribute to promoting quality family medicine in the future.

The prognostic value of health-related quality-of-life data in predicting survival in glioblastoma cancer patients: results from an international randomised phase III EORTC Brain Tumour and Radiation Oncology Groups, and NCIC Clinical Trials Group study.

This is one of the few studies that have explored the value of baseline symptoms and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in predicting survival in brain cancer patients. Baseline HRQOL scores (from the EORTC QLQ-C30 and the Brain Cancer Module (BN 20)) were examined in 490 newly diagnosed glioblastoma cancer patients for the relationship with overall survival by using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Refined techniques as the bootstrap re-sampling procedure and the computation of C-indexes and R(2)-coefficients were used to try and validate the model. Classical analysis controlled for major clinical prognostic factors selected cognitive functioning (P=0.0001), global health status (P=0.0055) and social functioning (P<0.0001) as statistically significant prognostic factors of survival. However, several issues question the validity of these findings. C-indexes and R(2)-coefficients, which are measures of the predictive ability of the models, did not exhibit major improvements when adding selected or all HRQOL scores to clinical factors. While classical techniques lead to positive results, more refined analyses suggest that baseline HRQOL scores add relatively little to clinical factors to predict survival. These results may have implications for future use of HRQOL as a prognostic factor in cancer patients.

Natural genetic variation of root system architecture from Arabidopsis to Brachypodium: towards adaptive value.

Root system architecture is a trait that displays considerable plasticity because of its sensitivity to environmental stimuli. Nevertheless, to a significant degree it is genetically constrained as suggested by surveys of its natural genetic variation. A few regulators of root system architecture have been isolated as quantitative trait loci through the natural variation approach in the dicotyledon model, Arabidopsis. This provides proof of principle that allelic variation for root system architecture traits exists, is genetically tractable, and might be exploited for crop breeding. Beyond Arabidopsis, Brachypodium could serve as both a credible and experimentally accessible model for root system architecture variation in monocotyledons, as suggested by first glimpses of the different root morphologies of Brachypodium accessions. Whether a direct knowledge transfer gained from molecular model system studies will work in practice remains unclear however, because of a lack of comprehensive understanding of root system physiology in the native context. For instance, apart from a few notable exceptions, the adaptive value of genetic variation in root system modulators is unknown. Future studies should thus aim at comprehensive characterization of the role of genetic players in root system architecture variation by taking into account the native environmental conditions, in particular soil characteristics.

Changing landscapes of Switzerland: assessing effects of historic and future land uses and land covers on the occurrence of selected butterfly species

Summary Landscapes are continuously changing. Natural forces of change such as heavy rainfall and fires can exert lasting influences on their physical form. However, changes related to human activities have often shaped landscapes more distinctly. In Western Europe, especially modern agricultural practices and the expanse of overbuilt land have left their marks in the landscapes since the middle of the 20th century. In the recent years men realised that mare and more changes that were formerly attributed to natural forces might indirectly be the result of their own action. Perhaps the most striking landscape change indirectly driven by human activity we can witness in these days is the large withdrawal of Alpine glaciers. Together with the landscapes also habitats of animal and plant species have undergone vast and sometimes rapid changes that have been hold responsible for the ongoing loss of biodiversity. Thereby, still little knowledge is available about probable effects of the rate of landscape change on species persistence and disappearance. Therefore, the development and speed of land use/land cover in the Swiss communes between the 1950s and 1990s were reconstructed using 10 parameters from agriculture and housing censuses, and were further correlated with changes in butterfly species occurrences. Cluster analyses were used to detect spatial patterns of change on broad spatial scales. Thereby, clusters of communes showing similar changes or transformation rates were identified for single decades and put into a temporally dynamic sequence. The obtained picture on the changes showed a prevalent replacement of non-intensive agriculture by intensive practices, a strong spreading of urban communes around city centres, and transitions towards larger farm sizes in the mountainous areas. Increasing transformation rates toward more intensive agricultural managements were especially found until the 1970s, whereas afterwards the trends were commonly negative. However, transformation rates representing the development of residential buildings showed positive courses at any time. The analyses concerning the butterfly species showed that grassland species reacted sensitively to the density of livestock in the communes. This might indicate the augmented use of dry grasslands as cattle pastures that show altered plant species compositions. Furthermore, these species also decreased in communes where farms with an agricultural area >5ha have disappeared. The species of the wetland habitats were favoured in communes with smaller fractions of agricultural areas and lower densities of large farms (>10ha) but did not show any correlation to transformation rates. It was concluded from these analyses that transformation rates might influence species disappearance to a certain extent but that states of the environmental predictors might generally outweigh the importance of the corresponding rates. Information on the current distribution of species is evident for nature conservation. Planning authorities that define priority areas for species protection or examine and authorise construction projects need to know about the spatial distribution of species. Hence, models that simulate the potential spatial distribution of species have become important decision tools. The underlying statistical analyses such as the widely used generalised linear models (GLM) often rely on binary species presence-absence data. However, often only species presence data have been colleted, especially for vagrant, rare or cryptic species such as butterflies or reptiles. Modellers have thus introduced randomly selected absence data to design distribution models. Yet, selecting false absence data might bias the model results. Therefore, we investigated several strategies to select more reliable absence data to model the distribution of butterfly species based on historical distribution data. The results showed that better models were obtained when historical data from longer time periods were considered. Furthermore, model performance was additionally increased when long-term data of species that show similar habitat requirements as the modelled species were used. This successful methodological approach was further applied to assess consequences of future landscape changes on the occurrence of butterfly species inhabiting dry grasslands or wetlands. These habitat types have been subjected to strong deterioration in the recent decades, what makes their protection a future mission. Four spatially explicit scenarios that described (i) ongoing land use changes as observed between 1985 and 1997, (ii) liberalised agricultural markets, and (iii) slightly and (iv) strongly lowered agricultural production provided probable directions of landscape change. Current species-environment relationships were derived from a statistical model and used to predict future occurrence probabilities in six major biogeographical regions in Switzerland, comprising the Jura Mountains, the Plateau, the Northern and Southern Alps, as well as the Western and Eastern Central Alps. The main results were that dry grasslands species profited from lowered agricultural production, whereas overgrowth of open areas in the liberalisation scenario might impair species occurrence. The wetland species mostly responded with decreases in their occurrence probabilities in the scenarios, due to a loss of their preferred habitat. Further analyses about factors currently influencing species occurrences confirmed anthropogenic causes such as urbanisation, abandonment of open land, and agricultural intensification. Hence, landscape planning should pay more attention to these forces in areas currently inhabited by these butterfly species to enable sustainable species persistence. In this thesis historical data were intensively used to reconstruct past developments and to make them useful for current investigations. Yet, the availability of historical data and the analyses on broader spatial scales has often limited the explanatory power of the conducted analyses. Meaningful descriptors of former habitat characteristics and abundant species distribution data are generally sparse, especially for fine scale analyses. However, this situation can be ameliorated by broadening the extent of the study site and the used grain size, as was done in this thesis by considering the whole of Switzerland with its communes. Nevertheless, current monitoring projects and data recording techniques are promising data sources that might allow more detailed analyses about effects of long-term species reactions on landscape changes in the near future. This work, however, also showed the value of historical species distribution data as for example their potential to locate still unknown species occurrences. The results might therefore contribute to further research activities that investigate current and future species distributions considering the immense richness of historical distribution data. Résumé Les paysages changent continuellement. Des farces naturelles comme des pluies violentes ou des feux peuvent avoir une influence durable sur la forme du paysage. Cependant, les changements attribués aux activités humaines ont souvent modelé les paysages plus profondément. Depuis les années 1950 surtout, les pratiques agricoles modernes ou l'expansion des surfaces d'habitat et d'infrastructure ont caractérisé le développement du paysage en Europe de l'Ouest. Ces dernières années, l'homme a commencé à réaliser que beaucoup de changements «naturels » pourraient indirectement résulter de ses propres activités. Le changement de paysage le plus apparent dont nous sommes témoins de nos jours est probablement l'immense retraite des glaciers alpins. Avec les paysages, les habitats des animaux et des plantes ont aussi été exposés à des changements vastes et quelquefois rapides, tenus pour coresponsable de la continuelle diminution de la biodiversité. Cependant, nous savons peu des effets probables de la rapidité des changements du paysage sur la persistance et la disparition des espèces. Le développement et la rapidité du changement de l'utilisation et de la couverture du sol dans les communes suisses entre les années 50 et 90 ont donc été reconstruits au moyen de 10 variables issues des recensements agricoles et résidentiels et ont été corrélés avec des changements de présence des papillons diurnes. Des analyses de groupes (Cluster analyses) ont été utilisées pour détecter des arrangements spatiaux de changements à l'échelle de la Suisse. Des communes avec des changements ou rapidités comparables ont été délimitées pour des décennies séparées et ont été placées en séquence temporelle, en rendrent une certaine dynamique du changement. Les résultats ont montré un remplacement répandu d'une agriculture extensive des pratiques intensives, une forte expansion des faubourgs urbains autour des grandes cités et des transitions vers de plus grandes surfaces d'exploitation dans les Alpes. Dans le cas des exploitations agricoles, des taux de changement croissants ont été observés jusqu'aux années 70, alors que la tendance a généralement été inversée dans les années suivantes. Par contre, la vitesse de construction des nouvelles maisons a montré des courbes positives pendant les 50 années. Les analyses sur la réaction des papillons diurnes ont montré que les espèces des prairies sèches supportaient une grande densité de bétail. Il est possible que dans ces communes beaucoup des prairies sèches aient été fertilisées et utilisées comme pâturages, qui ont une autre composition floristique. De plus, les espèces ont diminué dans les communes caractérisées par une rapide perte des fermes avec une surface cultivable supérieure à 5 ha. Les espèces des marais ont été favorisées dans des communes avec peu de surface cultivable et peu de grandes fermes, mais n'ont pas réagi aux taux de changement. Il en a donc été conclu que la rapidité des changements pourrait expliquer les disparitions d'espèces dans certains cas, mais que les variables prédictives qui expriment des états pourraient être des descripteurs plus importants. Des informations sur la distribution récente des espèces sont importantes par rapport aux mesures pour la conservation de la nature. Pour des autorités occupées à définir des zones de protection prioritaires ou à autoriser des projets de construction, ces informations sont indispensables. Les modèles de distribution spatiale d'espèces sont donc devenus des moyens de décision importants. Les méthodes statistiques courantes comme les modèles linéaires généralisés (GLM) demandent des données de présence et d'absence des espèces. Cependant, souvent seules les données de présence sont disponibles, surtout pour les animaux migrants, rares ou cryptiques comme des papillons ou des reptiles. C'est pourquoi certains modélisateurs ont choisi des absences au hasard, avec le risque d'influencer le résultat en choisissant des fausses absences. Nous avons établi plusieurs stratégies, basées sur des données de distribution historique des papillons diurnes, pour sélectionner des absences plus fiables. Les résultats ont démontré que de meilleurs modèles pouvaient être obtenus lorsque les données proviennent des périodes de temps plus longues. En plus, la performance des modèles a pu être augmentée en considérant des données de distribution à long terme d'espèces qui occupent des habitats similaires à ceux de l'espèce cible. Vu le succès de cette stratégie, elle a été utilisée pour évaluer les effets potentiels des changements de paysage futurs sur la distribution des papillons des prairies sèches et marais, deux habitats qui ont souffert de graves détériorations. Quatre scénarios spatialement explicites, décrivant (i) l'extrapolation des changements de l'utilisation de sol tels qu'observés entre 1985 et 1997, (ii) la libéralisation des marchés agricoles, et une production agricole (iii) légèrement amoindrie et (iv) fortement diminuée, ont été utilisés pour générer des directions de changement probables. Les relations actuelles entre la distribution des espèces et l'environnement ont été déterminées par le biais des modèles statistiques et ont été utilisées pour calculer des probabilités de présence selon les scénarios dans six régions biogéographiques majeures de la Suisse, comportant le Jura, le Plateau, les Alpes du Nord, du Sud, centrales orientales et centrales occidentales. Les résultats principaux ont montré que les espèces des prairies sèches pourraient profiter d'une diminution de la production agricole, mais qu'elles pourraient aussi disparaître à cause de l'embroussaillement des terres ouvertes dû à la libéralisation des marchés agricoles. La probabilité de présence des espèces de marais a décrû à cause d'une perte générale des habitats favorables. De plus, les analyses ont confirmé que des causes humaines comme l'urbanisation, l'abandon des terres ouvertes et l'intensification de l'agriculture affectent actuellement ces espèces. Ainsi ces forces devraient être mieux prises en compte lors de planifications paysagères, pour que ces papillons diurnes puissent survivre dans leurs habitats actuels. Dans ce travail de thèse, des données historiques ont été intensivement utilisées pour reconstruire des développements anciens et pour les rendre utiles à des recherches contemporaines. Cependant, la disponibilité des données historiques et les analyses à grande échelle ont souvent limité le pouvoir explicatif des analyses. Des descripteurs pertinents pour caractériser les habitats anciens et des données suffisantes sur la distribution des espèces sont généralement rares, spécialement pour des analyses à des échelles fores. Cette situation peut être améliorée en augmentant l'étendue du site d'étude et la résolution, comme il a été fait dans cette thèse en considérant toute la Suisse avec ses communes. Cependant, les récents projets de surveillance et les techniques de collecte de données sont des sources prometteuses, qui pourraient permettre des analyses plus détaillés sur les réactions à long terme des espèces aux changements de paysage dans le futur. Ce travail a aussi montré la valeur des anciennes données de distribution, par exemple leur potentiel pour aider à localiser des' présences d'espèces encore inconnues. Les résultats peuvent contribuer à des activités de recherche à venir, qui étudieraient les distributions récentes ou futures d'espèces en considérant l'immense richesse des données de distribution historiques.

The 5th anniversary of "Patient Safety in Surgery" - from the Journal's origin to its future vision.

A prospective study was undertaken to determine prognostic markers for patients with obstructive jaundice. Along with routine liver function tests, antipyrine clearance was determined in 20 patients. Four patients died after basal investigations. Five patients underwent definitive surgery. The remaining 11 patients were subjected to percutaneous transhepatic biliary decompression. Four patients died during the drainage period, while surgery was carried out for seven patients within 1-3 weeks of drainage. Of 20 patients, only six patients survived. Basal liver function tests were comparable in survivors and nonsurvivors. Discriminant analysis of the basal data revealed that plasma bilirubin, proteins and antipyrine half-life taken together had a strong association with mortality. A mathematical equation was derived using these variables and a score was computed for each patient. It was observed that a score value greater than or equal to 0.84 indicated survival. Omission of antipyrine half-life from the data, however, resulted in prediction of false security in 55% of patients. This study highlights the importance of addition of antipyrine elimination test to the routine liver function tests for precise identification of high risk patients.

Low predictive value of elevated blood pressure during childhood and adolescence

Background: Screening of elevated blood pressure (BP) in children has been advocated to early identify hypertension. However, identification of children with sustained elevated BP is challenging due to the high BP variability. The value of an elevated BP measure during childhood and adolescence for the prediction of future elevated BP is not well described. Objectives: We assessed the positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive value of high BP for sustained elevated BP in cohorts of children of the Seychelles, a rapidly developing island state in the African region. Methods: Serial school-based surveys of weight, height, and BP were conducted yearly between 1998-2006 among all students of the country in four school grades (kindergarten [G0, mean age (SD): 5.5 (0.4) yr], G4 [9.2 (0.4) yr], G7 [12.5 (0.4) yr] and G10 (15.6 (0.5) yr]. We constituted three cohorts of children examined twice at 3-4 years interval: 4,557 children examined at G0 and G4, 6,198 at G4 and G7, and 6,094 at G7 and G10. The same automated BP measurement devices were used throughout the study. BP was measured twice at each exam and averaged. Obesity and elevated BP were defined using the CDC (BMI_95th sex-, and age-specific percentile) and the NHBPEP criteria (BP_95th sex-, age-, and height specific percentile), respectively. Results: Prevalence of obesity was 6.1% at G0, 7.1% at G4, 7.5% at G7, and 6.5% at G10. Prevalence of elevated BP was 10.2% at G0, 9.9% at G4, 7.1% at G7, and 8.7% at G10. Among children with elevated BP at initial exam, the PPV of keeping elevated BP was low but increased with age: 13% between G0 and G4, 19% between G4 and G7, and 27% between G7 and G10. Among obese children with elevated BP, the PPV was higher: 33%, 35% and 39% respectively. Overall, the probability for children with normal BP to remain in that category 3-4 years later (NPV) was 92%, 95%, and 93%, respectively. By comparison, the PPV for children initially obese to remain obese was much higher at 71%, 71%, and 62% (G7-G10), respectively. The NPV (i.e. the probability of remaining at normal weight) was 94%, 96%, and 98%, respectively. Conclusion: During childhood and adolescence, having an elevated BP at one occasion is a weak predictor of sustained elevated BP 3-4 years later. In obese children, it is a better predictor.

Clinical trial substantiates the predictive value of O-6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase promoter methylation in glioblastoma patients treated with temozolomide.

PURPOSE: In the setting of a prospective clinical trial, we determined the predictive value of the methylation status of the O-6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter for outcome in glioblastoma patients treated with the alkylating agent temozolomide. Expression of this excision repair enzyme has been associated with resistance to alkylating chemotherapy. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: The methylation status of MGMT in the tumor biopsies was evaluated in 38 patients undergoing resection for newly diagnosed glioblastoma and enrolled in a Phase II trial testing concomitant and adjuvant temozolomide and radiation. The epigenetic silencing of the MGMT gene was determined using methylation-specific PCR. RESULTS: Inactivation of the MGMT gene by promoter methylation was associated with longer survival (P = 0.0051; Log-rank test). At 18 months, survival was 62% (16 of 26) for patients testing positive for a methylated MGMT promoter but reached only 8% (1 of 12) in absence of methylation (P = 0.002; Fisher's exact test). In the presence of other clinically relevant factors, methylation of the MGMT promoter remains the only significant predictor (P = 0.017; Cox regression). CONCLUSIONS: This prospective clinical trial identifies MGMT-methylation status as an independent predictor for glioblastoma patients treated with a methylating agent. The association of the epigenetic inactivation of the DNA repair gene MGMT with better outcome in this homogenous cohort may have important implications for the design of future trials and supports efforts to deplete MGMT by O-6-benzylguanine, a noncytotoxic substrate of this enzyme.

Chemoradiotherapy in malignant glioma: standard of care and future directions.

Glioma has been considered resistant to chemotherapy and radiation. Recently, concomitant and adjuvant chemoradiotherapy with temozolomide has become the standard treatment for newly diagnosed glioblastoma. Conversely (neo-)adjuvant PCV (procarbazine, lomustine, vincristine) failed to improve survival in the more chemoresponsive tumor entities of anaplastic oligoastrocytoma and oligodendroglioma. Preclinical investigations suggest synergism or additivity of radiotherapy and temozolomide in glioma cell lines. Although the relative contribution of the concomitant and the adjuvant chemotherapy, respectively, cannot be assessed, the early introduction of chemotherapy and the simultaneous administration with radiotherapy appear to be key for the improvement of outcome. Epigenetic inactivation of the DNA repair enzyme methylguanine methyltransferase (MGMT) seems to be the strongest predictive marker for outcome in patients treated with alkylating agent chemotherapy. Patients whose tumors do not have MGMT promoter methylation are less likely to benefit from the addition of temozolomide chemotherapy and require alternative treatment strategies. The predictive value of MGMT gene promoter methylation is being validated in ongoing trials aiming at overcoming this resistance by a dose-dense continuous temozolomide administration or in combination with MGMT inhibitors. Understanding of molecular mechanisms allows for rational targeting of specific pathways of repair, signaling, and angiogenesis. The addition of tyrosine kinase inhibitors vatalanib (PTK787) and vandetinib (ZD6474), the integrin inhibitor cilengitide, the monoclonal antibodies bevacizumab and cetuximab, the mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitors temsirolimus and everolimus, and the protein kinase C inhibitor enzastaurin, among other agents, are in clinical investigation, building on the established chemoradiotherapy regimen for newly diagnosed glioblastoma.

Assessing the added value of wastewater-based epidemiology to monitor illicit drug use

Wastewater-based epidemiology consists in acquiring relevant information about the lifestyle and health status of the population through the analysis of wastewater samples collected at the influent of a wastewater treatment plant. Whilst being a very young discipline, it has experienced an astonishing development since its firs application in 2005. The possibility to gather community-wide information about drug use has been among the major field of application. The wide resonance of the first results sparked the interest of scientists from various disciplines. Since then, research has broadened in innumerable directions. Although being praised as a revolutionary approach, there was a need to critically assess its added value, with regard to the existing indicators used to monitor illicit drug use. The main, and explicit, objective of this research was to evaluate the added value of wastewater-based epidemiology with regards to two particular, although interconnected, dimensions of illicit drug use. The first is related to trying to understand the added value of the discipline from an epidemiological, or societal, perspective. In other terms, to evaluate if and how it completes our current vision about the extent of illicit drug use at the population level, and if it can guide the planning of future prevention measures and drug policies. The second dimension is the criminal one, with a particular focus on the networks which develop around the large demand in illicit drugs. The goal here was to assess if wastewater-based epidemiology, combined to indicators stemming from the epidemiological dimension, could provide additional clues about the structure of drug distribution networks and the size of their market. This research had also an implicit objective, which focused on initiating the path of wastewater- based epidemiology at the Ecole des Sciences Criminelles of the University of Lausanne. This consisted in gathering the necessary knowledge about the collection, preparation, and analysis of wastewater samples and, most importantly, to understand how to interpret the acquired data and produce useful information. In the first phase of this research, it was possible to determine that ammonium loads, measured directly in the wastewater stream, could be used to monitor the dynamics of the population served by the wastewater treatment plant. Furthermore, it was shown that on the long term, the population did not have a substantial impact on consumption patterns measured through wastewater analysis. Focussing on methadone, for which precise prescription data was available, it was possible to show that reliable consumption estimates could be obtained via wastewater analysis. This allowed to validate the selected sampling strategy, which was then used to monitor the consumption of heroin, through the measurement of morphine. The latter, in combination to prescription and sales data, provided estimates of heroin consumption in line with other indicators. These results, combined to epidemiological data, highlighted the good correspondence between measurements and expectations and, furthermore, suggested that the dark figure of heroin users evading harm-reduction programs, which would thus not be measured by conventional indicators, is likely limited. In the third part, which consisted in a collaborative study aiming at extensively investigating geographical differences in drug use, wastewater analysis was shown to be a useful complement to existing indicators. In particular for stigmatised drugs, such as cocaine and heroin, it allowed to decipher the complex picture derived from surveys and crime statistics. Globally, it provided relevant information to better understand the drug market, both from an epidemiological and repressive perspective. The fourth part focused on cannabis and on the potential of combining wastewater and survey data to overcome some of their respective limitations. Using a hierarchical inference model, it was possible to refine current estimates of cannabis prevalence in the metropolitan area of Lausanne. Wastewater results suggested that the actual prevalence is substantially higher compared to existing figures, thus supporting the common belief that surveys tend to underestimate cannabis use. Whilst being affected by several biases, the information collected through surveys allowed to overcome some of the limitations linked to the analysis of cannabis markers in wastewater (i.e., stability and limited excretion data). These findings highlighted the importance and utility of combining wastewater-based epidemiology to existing indicators about drug use. Similarly, the fifth part of the research was centred on assessing the potential uses of wastewater-based epidemiology from a law enforcement perspective. Through three concrete examples, it was shown that results from wastewater analysis can be used to produce highly relevant intelligence, allowing drug enforcement to assess the structure and operations of drug distribution networks and, ultimately, guide their decisions at the tactical and/or operational level. Finally, the potential to implement wastewater-based epidemiology to monitor the use of harmful, prohibited and counterfeit pharmaceuticals was illustrated through the analysis of sibutramine, and its urinary metabolite, in wastewater samples. The results of this research have highlighted that wastewater-based epidemiology is a useful and powerful approach with numerous scopes. Faced with the complexity of measuring a hidden phenomenon like illicit drug use, it is a major addition to the panoply of existing indicators. -- L'épidémiologie basée sur l'analyse des eaux usées (ou, selon sa définition anglaise, « wastewater-based epidemiology ») consiste en l'acquisition d'informations portant sur le mode de vie et l'état de santé d'une population via l'analyse d'échantillons d'eaux usées récoltés à l'entrée des stations d'épuration. Bien qu'il s'agisse d'une discipline récente, elle a vécu des développements importants depuis sa première mise en oeuvre en 2005, notamment dans le domaine de l'analyse des résidus de stupéfiants. Suite aux retombées médiatiques des premiers résultats de ces analyses de métabolites dans les eaux usées, de nombreux scientifiques provenant de différentes disciplines ont rejoint les rangs de cette nouvelle discipline en développant plusieurs axes de recherche distincts. Bien que reconnu pour son coté objectif et révolutionnaire, il était nécessaire d'évaluer sa valeur ajoutée en regard des indicateurs couramment utilisés pour mesurer la consommation de stupéfiants. En se focalisant sur deux dimensions spécifiques de la consommation de stupéfiants, l'objectif principal de cette recherche était focalisé sur l'évaluation de la valeur ajoutée de l'épidémiologie basée sur l'analyse des eaux usées. La première dimension abordée était celle épidémiologique ou sociétale. En d'autres termes, il s'agissait de comprendre si et comment l'analyse des eaux usées permettait de compléter la vision actuelle sur la problématique, ainsi que déterminer son utilité dans la planification des mesures préventives et des politiques en matière de stupéfiants actuelles et futures. La seconde dimension abordée était celle criminelle, en particulier, l'étude des réseaux qui se développent autour du trafic de produits stupéfiants. L'objectif était de déterminer si cette nouvelle approche combinée aux indicateurs conventionnels, fournissait de nouveaux indices quant à la structure et l'organisation des réseaux de distribution ainsi que sur les dimensions du marché. Cette recherche avait aussi un objectif implicite, développer et d'évaluer la mise en place de l'épidémiologie basée sur l'analyse des eaux usées. En particulier, il s'agissait d'acquérir les connaissances nécessaires quant à la manière de collecter, traiter et analyser des échantillons d'eaux usées, mais surtout, de comprendre comment interpréter les données afin d'en extraire les informations les plus pertinentes. Dans la première phase de cette recherche, il y pu être mis en évidence que les charges en ammonium, mesurées directement dans les eaux usées permettait de suivre la dynamique des mouvements de la population contributrice aux eaux usées de la station d'épuration de la zone étudiée. De plus, il a pu être démontré que, sur le long terme, les mouvements de la population n'avaient pas d'influence substantielle sur le pattern de consommation mesuré dans les eaux usées. En se focalisant sur la méthadone, une substance pour laquelle des données précises sur le nombre de prescriptions étaient disponibles, il a pu être démontré que des estimations exactes sur la consommation pouvaient être tirées de l'analyse des eaux usées. Ceci a permis de valider la stratégie d'échantillonnage adoptée, qui, par le bais de la morphine, a ensuite été utilisée pour suivre la consommation d'héroïne. Combinée aux données de vente et de prescription, l'analyse de la morphine a permis d'obtenir des estimations sur la consommation d'héroïne en accord avec des indicateurs conventionnels. Ces résultats, combinés aux données épidémiologiques ont permis de montrer une bonne adéquation entre les projections des deux approches et ainsi démontrer que le chiffre noir des consommateurs qui échappent aux mesures de réduction de risque, et qui ne seraient donc pas mesurés par ces indicateurs, est vraisemblablement limité. La troisième partie du travail a été réalisée dans le cadre d'une étude collaborative qui avait pour but d'investiguer la valeur ajoutée de l'analyse des eaux usées à mettre en évidence des différences géographiques dans la consommation de stupéfiants. En particulier pour des substances stigmatisées, telles la cocaïne et l'héroïne, l'approche a permis d'objectiver et de préciser la vision obtenue avec les indicateurs traditionnels du type sondages ou les statistiques policières. Globalement, l'analyse des eaux usées s'est montrée être un outil très utile pour mieux comprendre le marché des stupéfiants, à la fois sous l'angle épidémiologique et répressif. La quatrième partie du travail était focalisée sur la problématique du cannabis ainsi que sur le potentiel de combiner l'analyse des eaux usées aux données de sondage afin de surmonter, en partie, leurs limitations. En utilisant un modèle d'inférence hiérarchique, il a été possible d'affiner les actuelles estimations sur la prévalence de l'utilisation de cannabis dans la zone métropolitaine de la ville de Lausanne. Les résultats ont démontré que celle-ci est plus haute que ce que l'on s'attendait, confirmant ainsi l'hypothèse que les sondages ont tendance à sous-estimer la consommation de cannabis. Bien que biaisés, les données récoltées par les sondages ont permis de surmonter certaines des limitations liées à l'analyse des marqueurs du cannabis dans les eaux usées (i.e., stabilité et manque de données sur l'excrétion). Ces résultats mettent en évidence l'importance et l'utilité de combiner les résultats de l'analyse des eaux usées aux indicateurs existants. De la même façon, la cinquième partie du travail était centrée sur l'apport de l'analyse des eaux usées du point de vue de la police. Au travers de trois exemples, l'utilisation de l'indicateur pour produire du renseignement concernant la structure et les activités des réseaux de distribution de stupéfiants, ainsi que pour guider les choix stratégiques et opérationnels de la police, a été mise en évidence. Dans la dernière partie, la possibilité d'utiliser cette approche pour suivre la consommation de produits pharmaceutiques dangereux, interdits ou contrefaits, a été démontrée par l'analyse dans les eaux usées de la sibutramine et ses métabolites. Les résultats de cette recherche ont mis en évidence que l'épidémiologie par l'analyse des eaux usées est une approche pertinente et puissante, ayant de nombreux domaines d'application. Face à la complexité de mesurer un phénomène caché comme la consommation de stupéfiants, la valeur ajoutée de cette approche a ainsi pu être démontrée.

Biological materials in colorectal surgery: current applications and potential for the future.

Biological materials are increasingly used in abdominal surgery for ventral, pelvic and perineal reconstructions, especially in contaminated fields. Future applications are multi-fold and include prevention and one-step closure of infected areas. This includes prevention of abdominal, parastomal and pelvic hernia, but could also include prevention of separation of multiple anastomoses, suture- or staple-lines. Further indications could be a containment of infected and/or inflammatory areas and protection of vital implants such as vascular grafts. Reinforcement patches of high-risk anastomoses or unresectable perforation sites are possibilities at least. Current applications are based mostly on case series and better data is urgently needed. Clinical benefits need to be assessed in prospective studies to provide reliable proof of efficacy with a sufficient follow-up. Only superior results compared with standard treatment will justify the higher costs of these materials. To date, the use of biological materials is not standard and applications should be limited to case-by-case decision.

Scenario-based assessment of future land use change on butterfly species distributions

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to predict environmentally induced range shifts of habitats of plant and animal species. Consequently SDMs are valuable tools for scientifically based conservation decisions. The aims of this paper are (1) to identify important drivers of butterfly species persistence or extinction, and (2) to analyse the responses of endangered butterfly species of dry grasslands and wetlands to likely future landscape changes in Switzerland. Future land use was represented by four scenarios describing: (1) ongoing land use changes as observed at the end of the last century; (2) a liberalisation of the agricultural markets; (3) a slightly lowered agricultural production; and (4) a strongly lowered agricultural production. Two model approaches have been applied. The first (logistic regression with principal components) explains what environmental variables have significant impact on species presence (and absence). The second (predictive SDM) is used to project species distribution under current and likely future land uses. The results of the explanatory analyses reveal that four principal components related to urbanisation, abandonment of open land and intensive agricultural practices as well as two climate parameters are primary drivers of species occurrence (decline). The scenario analyses show that lowered agricultural production is likely to favour dry grassland species due to an increase of non-intensively used land, open canopy forests, and overgrown areas. In the liberalisation scenario dry grassland species show a decrease in abundance due to a strong increase of forested patches. Wetland butterfly species would decrease under all four scenarios as their habitats become overgrown