Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo inversion of geophysical data for the purpose of estimating the hydraulic properties of the unsaturated zone

Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) has the potential to provide valuable information on hydrological properties of the vadose zone because of their strong sensitivity to soil water content. In particular, recent evidence has suggested that the stochastic inversion of crosshole GPR data within a coupled geophysical-hydrological framework may allow for effective estimation of subsurface van-Genuchten-Mualem (VGM) parameters and their corresponding uncertainties. An important and still unresolved issue, however, is how to best integrate GPR data into a stochastic inversion in order to estimate the VGM parameters and their uncertainties, thus improving hydrological predictions. Recognizing the importance of this issue, the aim of the research presented in this thesis was to first introduce a fully Bayesian inversion called Markov-chain-Monte-carlo (MCMC) strategy to perform the stochastic inversion of steady-state GPR data to estimate the VGM parameters and their uncertainties. Within this study, the choice of the prior parameter probability distributions from which potential model configurations are drawn and tested against observed data was also investigated. Analysis of both synthetic and field data collected at the Eggborough (UK) site indicates that the geophysical data alone contain valuable information regarding the VGM parameters. However, significantly better results are obtained when these data are combined with a realistic, informative prior. A subsequent study explore in detail the dynamic infiltration case, specifically to what extent time-lapse ZOP GPR data, collected during a forced infiltration experiment at the Arrenaes field site (Denmark), can help to quantify VGM parameters and their uncertainties using the MCMC inversion strategy. The findings indicate that the stochastic inversion of time-lapse GPR data does indeed allow for a substantial refinement in the inferred posterior VGM parameter distributions. In turn, this significantly improves knowledge of the hydraulic properties, which are required to predict hydraulic behaviour. Finally, another aspect that needed to be addressed involved the comparison of time-lapse GPR data collected under different infiltration conditions (i.e., natural loading and forced infiltration conditions) to estimate the VGM parameters using the MCMC inversion strategy. The results show that for the synthetic example, considering data collected during a forced infiltration test helps to better refine soil hydraulic properties compared to data collected under natural infiltration conditions. When investigating data collected at the Arrenaes field site, further complications arised due to model error and showed the importance of also including a rigorous analysis of the propagation of model error with time and depth when considering time-lapse data. Although the efforts in this thesis were focused on GPR data, the corresponding findings are likely to have general applicability to other types of geophysical data and field environments. Moreover, the obtained results allow to have confidence for future developments in integration of geophysical data with stochastic inversions to improve the characterization of the unsaturated zone but also reveal important issues linked with stochastic inversions, namely model errors, that should definitely be addressed in future research.

Implementation of bayesian therapeutic drug monitoring in modern patient care

The variability observed in drug exposure has a direct impact on the overall response to drug. The largest part of variability between dose and drug response resides in the pharmacokinetic phase, i.e. in the dose-concentration relationship. Among possibilities offered to clinicians, Therapeutic Drug Monitoring (TDM; Monitoring of drug concentration measurements) is one of the useful tool to guide pharmacotherapy. TDM aims at optimizing treatments by individualizing dosage regimens based on blood drug concentration measurement. Bayesian calculations, relying on population pharmacokinetic approach, currently represent the gold standard TDM strategy. However, it requires expertise and computational assistance, thus limiting its large implementation in routine patient care. The overall objective of this thesis was to implement robust tools to provide Bayesian TDM to clinician in modern routine patient care. To that endeavour, aims were (i) to elaborate an efficient and ergonomic computer tool for Bayesian TDM: EzeCHieL (ii) to provide algorithms for drug concentration Bayesian forecasting and software validation, relying on population pharmacokinetics (iii) to address some relevant issues encountered in clinical practice with a focus on neonates and drug adherence. First, the current stage of the existing software was reviewed and allows establishing specifications for the development of EzeCHieL. Then, in close collaboration with software engineers a fully integrated software, EzeCHieL, has been elaborated. EzeCHieL provides population-based predictions and Bayesian forecasting and an easy-to-use interface. It enables to assess the expectedness of an observed concentration in a patient compared to the whole population (via percentiles), to assess the suitability of the predicted concentration relative to the targeted concentration and to provide dosing adjustment. It allows thus a priori and a posteriori Bayesian drug dosing individualization. Implementation of Bayesian methods requires drug disposition characterisation and variability quantification trough population approach. Population pharmacokinetic analyses have been performed and Bayesian estimators have been provided for candidate drugs in population of interest: anti-infectious drugs administered to neonates (gentamicin and imipenem). Developed models were implemented in EzeCHieL and also served as validation tool in comparing EzeCHieL concentration predictions against predictions from the reference software (NONMEM®). Models used need to be adequate and reliable. For instance, extrapolation is not possible from adults or children to neonates. Therefore, this work proposes models for neonates based on the developmental pharmacokinetics concept. Patients' adherence is also an important concern for drug models development and for a successful outcome of the pharmacotherapy. A last study attempts to assess impact of routine patient adherence measurement on models definition and TDM interpretation. In conclusion, our results offer solutions to assist clinicians in interpreting blood drug concentrations and to improve the appropriateness of drug dosing in routine clinical practice.

Hydrogeophysical data integration at larger scales: Application of Bayesian sequential simulation for the characterization of heterogeneous alluvial aquifers

Knowledge of the spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity (K) within an aquifer is critical for reliable predictions of solute transport and the development of effective groundwater management and/or remediation strategies. While core analyses and hydraulic logging can provide highly detailed information, such information is inherently localized around boreholes that tend to be sparsely distributed throughout the aquifer volume. Conversely, larger-scale hydraulic experiments like pumping and tracer tests provide relatively low-resolution estimates of K in the investigated subsurface region. As a result, traditional hydrogeological measurement techniques contain a gap in terms of spatial resolution and coverage, and they are often alone inadequate for characterizing heterogeneous aquifers. Geophysical methods have the potential to bridge this gap. The recent increased interest in the application of geophysical methods to hydrogeological problems is clearly evidenced by the formation and rapid growth of the domain of hydrogeophysics over the past decade (e.g., Rubin and Hubbard, 2005).

PGE2-Induced IDO1 Inhibits the Capacity of Fully Mature DCs to Elicit an In Vitro Antileukemic Immune Response.

In the last years, dendritic cells (DC) have been evaluated for antitumor vaccination. Although DC-based vaccines have raised great expectations, their clinical translation has been largely disappointing. For these results, several explanations have been proposed. In particular, the concomitant expression by DCs of tolerogenic pathways, such as the immunosuppressive agent indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase-1 (IDO1), has been demonstrated. The aim of this study is to evaluate both the stimulatory and the tolerogenic feature of monocyte-derived DCs (Mo-DCs) after maturation with PGE2. In particular, the role of IDO1 expression in PGE2-matured Mo-DCs has been addressed. Here we show that PGE2, which is required for full maturation of DCs, is one mediator of DC tolerance by enhancing IDO1. PGE2-mediated expression of IDO1 results in the production of kynurenine, in the generation of Tregs, and in the inhibition of either the allogeneic or the autologous antigen-specific stimulatory capacity of DCs. When pulsed with leukemic lysates and matured with PGE2, DCs are impaired in the induction of IFN-γ secreting CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cells due to IDO1 upregulation. Moreover, the inhibition of IDO1 enhances the antileukemic response. Overall, these results point toward the use of IDO1 inhibitors to enhance the vaccination capacity of DCs, matured with PGE2.

Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science

Continuing developments in science and technology mean that the amounts of information forensic scientists are able to provide for criminal investigations is ever increasing. The commensurate increase in complexity creates difficulties for scientists and lawyers with regard to evaluation and interpretation, notably with respect to issues of inference and decision. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, and specifically Bayesian networks, provides powerful methods to deal with this complexity. Extensions of these methods to elements of decision theory provide further support and assistance to the judicial system. Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian decision networks for the evaluation and interpretation of scientific findings in forensic science, and for the support of decision-makers in their scientific and legal tasks. Includes self-contained introductions to probability and decision theory. Develops the characteristics of Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks and their extension to decision models. Features implementation of the methodology with reference to commercial and academically available software. Presents standard networks and their extensions that can be easily implemented and that can assist in the reader's own analysis of real cases. Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning. Contains a method for the construction of coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of scientific findings and for decisions based on them. Is written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists and lawyers with minimal mathematical background. Includes a foreword by Ian Evett. The clear and accessible style of this second edition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, applied statisticians and graduate students wishing to evaluate forensic findings from the perspective of probability and decision analysis. It will also appeal to lawyers and other scientists and professionals interested in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings, including decision making based on scientific information.

Decision-theoretic analysis of forensic sampling criteria using Bayesian decision networks

Sampling issues represent a topic of ongoing interest to the forensic science community essentially because of their crucial role in laboratory planning and working protocols. For this purpose, forensic literature described thorough (Bayesian) probabilistic sampling approaches. These are now widely implemented in practice. They allow, for instance, to obtain probability statements that parameters of interest (e.g., the proportion of a seizure of items that present particular features, such as an illegal substance) satisfy particular criteria (e.g., a threshold or an otherwise limiting value). Currently, there are many approaches that allow one to derive probability statements relating to a population proportion, but questions on how a forensic decision maker - typically a client of a forensic examination or a scientist acting on behalf of a client - ought actually to decide about a proportion or a sample size, remained largely unexplored to date. The research presented here intends to address methodology from decision theory that may help to cope usefully with the wide range of sampling issues typically encountered in forensic science applications. The procedures explored in this paper enable scientists to address a variety of concepts such as the (net) value of sample information, the (expected) value of sample information or the (expected) decision loss. All of these aspects directly relate to questions that are regularly encountered in casework. Besides probability theory and Bayesian inference, the proposed approach requires some additional elements from decision theory that may increase the efforts needed for practical implementation. In view of this challenge, the present paper will emphasise the merits of graphical modelling concepts, such as decision trees and Bayesian decision networks. These can support forensic scientists in applying the methodology in practice. How this may be achieved is illustrated with several examples. The graphical devices invoked here also serve the purpose of supporting the discussion of the similarities, differences and complementary aspects of existing Bayesian probabilistic sampling criteria and the decision-theoretic approach proposed throughout this paper.

Large multi-gene phylogenetic trees of the grasses (Poaceae): progress towards complete tribal and generic level sampling.

In this paper we included a very broad representation of grass family diversity (84% of tribes and 42% of genera). Phylogenetic inference was based on three plastid DNA regions rbcL, matK and trnL-F, using maximum parsimony and Bayesian methods. Our results resolved most of the subfamily relationships within the major clades (BEP and PACCMAD), which had previously been unclear, such as, among others the: (i) BEP and PACCMAD sister relationship, (ii) composition of clades and the sister-relationship of Ehrhartoideae and Bambusoideae + Pooideae, (iii) paraphyly of tribe Bambuseae, (iv) position of Gynerium as sister to Panicoideae, (v) phylogenetic position of Micrairoideae. With the presence of a relatively large amount of missing data, we were able to increase taxon sampling substantially in our analyses from 107 to 295 taxa. However, bootstrap support and to a lesser extent Bayesian inference posterior probabilities were generally lower in analyses involving missing data than those not including them. We produced a fully resolved phylogenetic summary tree for the grass family at subfamily level and indicated the most likely relationships of all included tribes in our analysis.

Bayesian classification criterion for forensic multivariate data

This study presents a classification criteria for two-class Cannabis seedlings. As the cultivation of drug type cannabis is forbidden in Switzerland, law enforcement authorities regularly ask laboratories to determine cannabis plant's chemotype from seized material in order to ascertain that the plantation is legal or not. In this study, the classification analysis is based on data obtained from the relative proportion of three major leaf compounds measured by gas-chromatography interfaced with mass spectrometry (GC-MS). The aim is to discriminate between drug type (illegal) and fiber type (legal) cannabis at an early stage of the growth. A Bayesian procedure is proposed: a Bayes factor is computed and classification is performed on the basis of the decision maker specifications (i.e. prior probability distributions on cannabis type and consequences of classification measured by losses). Classification rates are computed with two statistical models and results are compared. Sensitivity analysis is then performed to analyze the robustness of classification criteria.

Advanced mapping of environmental data: Geostatistics, Machine Learning and Bayesian Maximum Entropy

This book combines geostatistics and global mapping systems to present an up-to-the-minute study of environmental data. Featuring numerous case studies, the reference covers model dependent (geostatistics) and data driven (machine learning algorithms) analysis techniques such as risk mapping, conditional stochastic simulations, descriptions of spatial uncertainty and variability, artificial neural networks (ANN) for spatial data, Bayesian maximum entropy (BME), and more.

Detection of nandrolone metabolites in urine after a football game in professional and amateur players: a Bayesian comparison.

Nandrolone (19-nortestosterone) is a widely used anabolic steroid in sports where strength plays an essential role. Once nandrolone has been metabolised, two major metabolites are excreted in urine, 19-norandrosterone (NA) and 19-noretiocholanolone (NE). In 1997, in France, quite a few sportsmen had concentrations of 19-norandrosterone very close to the IOC cut off limit (2ng/ml). At that time, a debate took place about the capability of the human male body to produce by itself these metabolites without any intake of nandrolone or related compounds. The International Football Federation (FIFA) was very concerned with this problematic, especially because the World Cup was about to start in France. In this respect, a statistical study was held with all football players from the first and second divisions of the Swiss Football National League. All players gave a urine sample after effort and around 6% of them showed traces of 19-norandrosterone. These results were compared with amateur football players (control group) and around 6% of them had very small amounts of 19-norandrosterone and/or 19-noretiocholanolone in urine after effort, whereas none of them had detectable traces of one or the other metabolite before effort. The origin of these compounds in urine after a strenuous physical activity is still unknown, but three hypotheses can be put forward. First, an endogenous production of nandrolone metabolites takes place. Second, nandrolone metabolites are released from the fatty tissues after an intake of nandrolone, some related compounds or some contaminated nutritive supplements. Finally, the sportsmen may have taken something during or just before the football game.

A fully echo-guided trans-apical aortic valve implantation.

The trans-apical aortic valve implantation (TA-AVI) is an established technique for high-risk patients requiring aortic valve replacement. Traditionally, preoperative (computed tomography (CT) scan, coronary angiogram) and intra-operative imaging (fluoroscopy) for stent-valve positioning and implantation require contrast medium injections. To preserve the renal function in elderly patients suffering from chronic renal insufficiency, a fully echo-guided trans-catheter valve implantation seems to be a reasonable alternative. We report the first successful TA-AVI procedure performed solely under trans-oesophageal echocardiogram control, in the absence of contrast medium injections.

Rapid detection of enterovirus in cerebrospinal fluid by a fully-automated PCR assay is associated with improved management of aseptic meningitis in adult patients.

BACKGROUND: Enterovirus (EV) is the most frequent cause of aseptic meningitis (AM). Lack of microbiological documentation results in unnecessary antimicrobial therapy and hospitalization. OBJECTIVES: To assess the impact of rapid EV detection in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) by a fully-automated PCR (GeneXpert EV assay, GXEA) on the management of AM. STUDY DESIGN: Observational study in adult patients with AM. Three groups were analyzed according to EV documentation in CSF: group A=no PCR or negative PCR (n=17), group B=positive real-time PCR (n=20), and group C=positive GXEA (n=22). Clinical, laboratory and health-care costs data were compared. RESULTS: Clinical characteristics were similar in the 3 groups. Median turn-around time of EV PCR decreased from 60h (IQR (interquartile range) 44-87) in group B to 5h (IQR 4-11) in group C (p<0.0001). Median duration of antibiotics was 1 (IQR 0-6), 1 (0-1.9), and 0.5 days (single dose) in groups A, B, and C, respectively (p<0.001). Median length of hospitalization was 4 days (2.5-7.5), 2 (1-3.7), and 0.5 (0.3-0.7), respectively (p<0.001). Median hospitalization costs were $5458 (2676-6274) in group A, $2796 (2062-5726) in group B, and $921 (765-1230) in group C (p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Rapid EV detection in CSF by a fully-automated PCR improves management of AM by significantly reducing antibiotic use, hospitalization length and costs.

Ocular distribution, spectrum of activity, and in vivo viral neutralization of a fully humanized anti-herpes simplex virus IgG Fab fragment following topical application.

Herpes simplex ocular infection is a major cause of corneal blindness. Local antiviral treatments exist but are associated with corneal toxicity, and resistance has become an issue. We evaluated the biodistribution and efficacy of a humanized anti-herpes simplex virus (anti-HSV) IgG FAb fragment (AC-8; 53 kDa) following repeated topical administration. AC-8 was found in the corneal epithelium, anterior stroma, subepithelial stromal cells, and retinal glial cells, with preferential entry through the ocular limbus. AC-8 was active against 13 different strains of HSV-1, with 50% and 90% mean effective concentrations (MEC(50) and MEC(90), respectively) ranging from 0.03 to 0.13 μg/ml, indicating broad-spectrum activity. The in vivo efficacy of AC-8 was evaluated in a mouse model of herpes-induced ocular disease. Treatment with low-dose AC-8 (1 mg/ml) slightly reduced the ocular disease scores. A greater reduction of the disease scores was observed in the 10-mg/ml AC-8-treated group, but not as much as with trifluridine (TFT). AC-8 treatment reduced viral titers but less than trifluridine. AC-8 did not display any toxicity to the cornea or other structures in the eye. In summary, topical instillation of an anti-HSV FAb can be used on both intact and ulcerated corneas. It is well tolerated and does not alter reepithelialization. Further studies to improve the antiviral effect are needed for AC-8 to be considered for therapeutic use.

Multiple-scale hydrological and geophysical data integration through non-linear Bayesian sequential simulation

Significant progress has been made with regard to the quantitative integration of geophysical and hydrological data at the local scale. However, extending the corresponding approaches to the scale of a field site represents a major, and as-of-yet largely unresolved, challenge. To address this problem, we have developed downscaling procedure based on a non-linear Bayesian sequential simulation approach. The main objective of this algorithm is to estimate the value of the sparsely sampled hydraulic conductivity at non-sampled locations based on its relation to the electrical conductivity logged at collocated wells and surface resistivity measurements, which are available throughout the studied site. The in situ relationship between the hydraulic and electrical conductivities is described through a non-parametric multivariatekernel density function. Then a stochastic integration of low-resolution, large-scale electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data in combination with high-resolution, local-scale downhole measurements of the hydraulic and electrical conductivities is applied. The overall viability of this downscaling approach is tested and validated by comparing flow and transport simulation through the original and the upscaled hydraulic conductivity fields. Our results indicate that the proposed procedure allows obtaining remarkably faithful estimates of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity structure and correspondingly reliable predictions of the transport characteristics over relatively long distances.