Future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss.

Current levels of endangerment and historical trends of species and habitats are the main criteria used to direct conservation efforts globally. Estimates of future declines, which might indicate different priorities than past declines, have been limited by the lack of appropriate data and models. Given that much of conservation is about anticipating and responding to future threats, our inability to look forward at a global scale has been a major constraint on effective action. Here, we assess the geography and extent of projected future changes in suitable habitat for terrestrial mammals within their present ranges. We used a global earth-system model, IMAGE, coupled with fine-scale habitat suitability models and parametrized according to four global scenarios of human development. We identified the most affected countries by 2050 for each scenario, assuming that no additional conservation actions other than those described in the scenarios take place. We found that, with some exceptions, most of the countries with the largest predicted losses of suitable habitat for mammals are in Africa and the Americas. African and North American countries were also predicted to host the most species with large proportional global declines. Most of the countries we identified as future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss have little or no overlap with the present global conservation priorities, thus confirming the need for forward-looking analyses in conservation priority setting. The expected growth in human populations and consumption in hotspots of future mammal loss mean that local conservation actions such as protected areas might not be sufficient to mitigate losses. Other policies, directed towards the root causes of biodiversity loss, are required, both in Africa and other parts of the world.

Looking for orders of magnitude : five essays in trade and the environment and economic geography

General Summary Although the chapters of this thesis address a variety of issues, the principal aim is common: test economic ideas in an international economic context. The intention has been to supply empirical findings using the largest suitable data sets and making use of the most appropriate empirical techniques. This thesis can roughly be divided into two parts: the first one, corresponding to the first two chapters, investigates the link between trade and the environment, the second one, the last three chapters, is related to economic geography issues. Environmental problems are omnipresent in the daily press nowadays and one of the arguments put forward is that globalisation causes severe environmental problems through the reallocation of investments and production to countries with less stringent environmental regulations. A measure of the amplitude of this undesirable effect is provided in the first part. The third and the fourth chapters explore the productivity effects of agglomeration. The computed spillover effects between different sectors indicate how cluster-formation might be productivity enhancing. The last chapter is not about how to better understand the world but how to measure it and it was just a great pleasure to work on it. "The Economist" writes every week about the impressive population and economic growth observed in China and India, and everybody agrees that the world's center of gravity has shifted. But by how much and how fast did it shift? An answer is given in the last part, which proposes a global measure for the location of world production and allows to visualize our results in Google Earth. A short summary of each of the five chapters is provided below. The first chapter, entitled "Unraveling the World-Wide Pollution-Haven Effect" investigates the relative strength of the pollution haven effect (PH, comparative advantage in dirty products due to differences in environmental regulation) and the factor endowment effect (FE, comparative advantage in dirty, capital intensive products due to differences in endowments). We compute the pollution content of imports using the IPPS coefficients (for three pollutants, namely biological oxygen demand, sulphur dioxide and toxic pollution intensity for all manufacturing sectors) provided by the World Bank and use a gravity-type framework to isolate the two above mentioned effects. Our study covers 48 countries that can be classified into 29 Southern and 19 Northern countries and uses the lead content of gasoline as proxy for environmental stringency. For North-South trade we find significant PH and FE effects going in the expected, opposite directions and being of similar magnitude. However, when looking at world trade, the effects become very small because of the high North-North trade share, where we have no a priori expectations about the signs of these effects. Therefore popular fears about the trade effects of differences in environmental regulations might by exaggerated. The second chapter is entitled "Is trade bad for the Environment? Decomposing worldwide SO2 emissions, 1990-2000". First we construct a novel and large database containing reasonable estimates of SO2 emission intensities per unit labor that vary across countries, periods and manufacturing sectors. Then we use these original data (covering 31 developed and 31 developing countries) to decompose the worldwide SO2 emissions into the three well known dynamic effects (scale, technique and composition effect). We find that the positive scale (+9,5%) and the negative technique (-12.5%) effect are the main driving forces of emission changes. Composition effects between countries and sectors are smaller, both negative and of similar magnitude (-3.5% each). Given that trade matters via the composition effects this means that trade reduces total emissions. We next construct, in a first experiment, a hypothetical world where no trade happens, i.e. each country produces its imports at home and does no longer produce its exports. The difference between the actual and this no-trade world allows us (under the omission of price effects) to compute a static first-order trade effect. The latter now increases total world emissions because it allows, on average, dirty countries to specialize in dirty products. However, this effect is smaller (3.5%) in 2000 than in 1990 (10%), in line with the negative dynamic composition effect identified in the previous exercise. We then propose a second experiment, comparing effective emissions with the maximum or minimum possible level of SO2 emissions. These hypothetical levels of emissions are obtained by reallocating labour accordingly across sectors within each country (under the country-employment and the world industry-production constraints). Using linear programming techniques, we show that emissions are reduced by 90% with respect to the worst case, but that they could still be reduced further by another 80% if emissions were to be minimized. The findings from this chapter go together with those from chapter one in the sense that trade-induced composition effect do not seem to be the main source of pollution, at least in the recent past. Going now to the economic geography part of this thesis, the third chapter, entitled "A Dynamic Model with Sectoral Agglomeration Effects" consists of a short note that derives the theoretical model estimated in the fourth chapter. The derivation is directly based on the multi-regional framework by Ciccone (2002) but extends it in order to include sectoral disaggregation and a temporal dimension. This allows us formally to write present productivity as a function of past productivity and other contemporaneous and past control variables. The fourth chapter entitled "Sectoral Agglomeration Effects in a Panel of European Regions" takes the final equation derived in chapter three to the data. We investigate the empirical link between density and labour productivity based on regional data (245 NUTS-2 regions over the period 1980-2003). Using dynamic panel techniques allows us to control for the possible endogeneity of density and for region specific effects. We find a positive long run elasticity of density with respect to labour productivity of about 13%. When using data at the sectoral level it seems that positive cross-sector and negative own-sector externalities are present in manufacturing while financial services display strong positive own-sector effects. The fifth and last chapter entitled "Is the World's Economic Center of Gravity Already in Asia?" computes the world economic, demographic and geographic center of gravity for 1975-2004 and compares them. Based on data for the largest cities in the world and using the physical concept of center of mass, we find that the world's economic center of gravity is still located in Europe, even though there is a clear shift towards Asia. To sum up, this thesis makes three main contributions. First, it provides new estimates of orders of magnitudes for the role of trade in the globalisation and environment debate. Second, it computes reliable and disaggregated elasticities for the effect of density on labour productivity in European regions. Third, it allows us, in a geometrically rigorous way, to track the path of the world's economic center of gravity.

How Effective are Unemployment Benefit Sanctions? Looking Beyond Unemployment Exit

This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of the effects of benefit sanctions on post-unemployment outcomes such as post-unemployment employment stability and earnings. We use rich register data which allow us to distinguish between a warning that a benefit reduction may take place in the near future and the actual withdrawal of unemployment benefits. Adopting a multivariate mixed proportional hazard approach to address selectivity, we find that warnings do not affect subsequent employment stability but do reduce post-unemployment earnings. Actual benefit reductions lower the quality of post-unemployment jobs both in terms of job duration as well as in terms of earnings. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Plasma cell precursors: long-distance travelers looking for a home.

Little is known about the migration of plasma cell precursors to the lymph node medulla. In this issue of Immunity, Fooksman et al. (2010) propose that this migration is largely independent of chemotactic cues but follows a long linear walk of random orientation.

Smoked cannabis and doping control: looking for the wrong target analyte?

Introduction: Since 2004, cannabis is prohibited by the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) for all sports in competition. In the years since then, about half of all positive doping cases in Switzerland have been related to cannabis consumption. In most cases, the athletes plausibly claim to have consumed cannabis several days or even weeks before competition and only for recreational purposes not related to competition. In doping analysis, the target analyte in urine samples is 11-nor-delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol- 9-carboxylic acid (THC-COOH), the reporting threshold for laboratories is 15 ng/mL. However, the wide detection window of this long-term THC metabolite in urine does not allow a conclusion concerning the time of consumption or the impact on the physical performance. Aim: The purpose of the present pharmacokinetic study on volunteers was to evaluate target analytes with shorter urinary excretion time. Subsequently, urines from athletes tested positive for cannabis should be reanalyzed including these analytes. Methods: In an one-session clinical trial (approved by IRB, Swissmedic, and Federal Office of Public Health), 12 healthy, male volunteers (age 26 ± 3 yrs, BMI 24 ± 2 kg/m2) with cannabis experience (> once/month) smoked a Cannabis cigarette standardized to 70 mg THC/cigarette (Bedrobinol® 7%, Dutch Office for Medicinal Cannabis) following a paced-puffing procedure. Plasma and urine was collected up to 8 h and 11 days, respectively. Total THC, 11-hydroxy-THC (THC-OH), and THC-COOH were determined after enzymatic hydrolyzation followed by SPE and GC/MS-SIM. The limit of quantitation (LOQ) for all analytes was 0.1 ng/mL. Visual analog scales (VAS) and vital functions were used for monitoring psychological and somatic side-effects at every timepoint of specimen collection (up to 480 min). Results: Eight puffs delivered a mean THC dose of 45 mg. Mean plasma levels of total THC, THC-OH and THC-COOH were measured in the range of 0.1-20.9, 0.1-1.8, and 1.8-7.5 ng/mL, respectively. Peak concentrations were observed at 5, 10, and 90 min. Mean urine levels were measured in the range of 0.1-0.7, 0.10-6.2, and 0.1-13.4 ng/mL, respectively. The detection windows were 2-8, 2-96, and 2-120 h. No or only mild effects were observed, such as dry mouth, sedation, and tachycardia. Besides high to very high THC-COOH levels (0-978 ng/mL), THC (0.1-24 ng/mL) and THC-OH (1-234 ng/mL) were found in 90 and 96% of the cannabis-positive urines from athletes. Conclusion: Instead of or in addition to THC-COOH, the pharmacologically active THC and THC-OH should be the target analytes for doping urine analysis. This would allow the estimation of more recent Cannabis consumption, probably influencing performance during competition. Keywords: cannabis, doping, clinical trial, plasma and urine levels, athlete's samples

Plant and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal diversity - are we looking at the relevant levels of diversity and are we using the right techniques?

Fungal symbionts commonly occur in plants influencing host growth, physiology, and ecology (Carlile et al., 2001). However, while whole-plant growth responses to biotrophic fungi are readily demonstrated, it has been much more difficult to identify and detect the physiological mechanisms responsible. Previous work on the clonal grass Glyceria striata has revealed that the systemic fungal endophyte Epichloë glyceriae has a positive effect on clonal growth of its host (Pan & Clay, 2002; 2003). The latest study from these authors, in this issue (pp. 467- 475), now suggests that increased carbon movement in hosts infected by E. glyceriae may function as one mechanism by which endophytic fungi could increase plant growth. Given the widespread distribution of both clonal plants and symbiotic fungi, this research will have implications for our understanding of the ecology and evolution of fungus-plant associations in natural communities.

More on Testing for Validity Instead of Looking for It

Using Monte Carlo simulations and reanalyzing the data of a validation study of the AEIM emotional intelligence test, we demonstrated that an atheoretical approach and the use of weak statistical procedures can result in biased validity estimates. These procedures included stepwise regression-and the general case of failing to include important theoretical controls-extreme scores analysis, and ignoring heteroscedasticity as well as measurement error. The authors of the AEIM test responded by offering more complete information about their analyses, allowing us to further examine the perils of ignoring theory and correct statistical procedures. In this paper we show with extended analyses that the AEIM test is invalid.

Looking for factors involved in the light-dependent degradation of phytochrome A

SUMMARY : Phytochromes constitute a family of red/far-red photoreceptors regulating all the major transitions during the life cycle of plants. In Arabidopsis, five members: phyA,_ B, C, D and E, were identified. Phytochromes are synthesized in their inactive red-light absorbing form called Pr. Upon light absorbance they convert to the far-red light absorbing Pfr form. The Pfr form is the active conformer which converts back to the Pr form either rapidly upon far-red perception or in a slower process called dark reversion. ph~A represents an exception, in that it does not significantly dark-revert and two specific processes have been developed by the plants to decrease the amount of biologically active phyA. The first one is alight-dependent repression of the PHYA gene expression and the second one is alight-dependent degradation of the phyA protein. The latter is the most efficient process to rapidly decrease the level of active phyA. The ability of plants to regulate the amount of active phyA is critical in a far-red rich environment, a situation observed under a canopy. In these conditions, phyA is essential to induce the germination and the deetiolation of the young seedling. Later in the development the ability of phyA to repress growth counteracts the shade avoidance response. Therefore decreasing the amount of phyA allows stem growth and to compete with neighbours for the light. In this thesis, I investigate the light-dependent degradation of phyA. I developed a reverse genetic approach based on the systematic analysis of the light-dependent accumulation of phyA in the different cullin mutant cull, cul3a; cul3b and cul4. This analysis allowed me to show that CUL1 and CUL3A-based E3 ligase complexes are involved in the regulation of phyA degradation. Surprisingly, our results also demonstrate that cu14 is not affected in the degradation of phyA whereas constitutive Photomorphogenic 1 (COP1) a subunit of one CUL4based E3 complex was reported to be involved. Further investigations showed that the phenotype of cop1 is conditional, the mutant being defective in phyA degradation only in the presence of metabolisable sugars. I also showed that phyA is degraded by a proteasome-dependent mechanism both in the cytoplasm and in the nucleus using mutants and transgenic lines affected in the localization of phyA. Interestingly, I observed that phyA degradation was faster in the nucleus than in the cytosol and that rapid degradation of Pr also occurred in the nucleus suggesting that cytosolic accumulation of phyA in the dark is a way to regulate its proteolysis. Finally, we identify a short region similar to a PEST sequence required for phyA stability and we developed a unbiased genetic screen to identify new components involved in the regulation of the light-dependent degradation of phyA. The significance of these results are discussed. RESUME : Les phytochromes (phy) constituent une famille de photorécepteurs absorbant la lumière rouge et rouge lointaine et régulant toutes les étapes de transitions majeures dans la vie des plantes. Chez Arabidopsis, cinq membres : phyA, B, C, D et E ont été identifiés. Les phytochromes sont synthétisés sous une forme inactive appelée Pr absorbant la lumière rouge. Après perception de lumière ils passent sous une forme active Pfr absorbant dans le rouge lointain. La forme Pfr peut retourner sous la forme Pr après absorption de lumiëre rouge lointaine ou dans un processus lent appelé «réversion à l'obscurité ». phyA représente une exception à cette règle car il ne retoune pas significativement sous sa forme inactive dans le noir. Deux processus spécifiques ont donc été développés pour diminuer le taux de phyA actif. Le premier consiste en la répression du gène PHYA en condition de lumière et le second en une dégradation induite par la lumière de la protéine phyA. Ce dernier processus est le plus efficace pour diminuer rapidement le niveau de phyA. La capacité des plantes à réguler le taux de phyA actifs est critique dans un environnement riche en lumière rouge lointaine, une situation observée sous une canopée. Sous une canopée, phyA est essentiel pour induire la germination et la dé-étiolation de la jeune pousse. Plus tard dans le développement la capacité de phyA de réprimer la croissance freine la «réponse à l'évitement de l'ombre ». Par conséquent diminuer le taux de phyA permet la croissance de la tige et donc de rentrer en compétition pour la lumière avec les plantes avoisinantes. Dans cette thèse, j'ai étudié la dégradation de phyA. J'ai développé une approche génétique inverse basée sur l'analyse systématique de l'accumulation de phyA en condition de lumière dans les différents mutants cullin, cul1, cul3a, cul3b et cul4. Ces analyses nous ont permis d'identifier qu'un complexe E3 ligase CUL1 et un complexe E3 ligase CUL3A sont impliqués dans la régulation de la dégradation de phyA. Mes résultats démontrent aussi que le mutant cul4 n'est pas affecté dans la dégradation de phyA alors que Çonstitutive Photomorphogenic 1 (COPI) une sous unité d'un complexe CUL4 à été identifier dans la régulation de cette dégradation. Des analyses supplémentaires suggèrent que l'effet de la mutation cop1 est dépendante dë la présence de sucres métabolisables. J'ai aussi montré que phyA est dégradé dans le noyau et dans le cytoplasme par un mécanisme dépendant du protéasome et que la dégradation dans le.noyau est non seulement aspécifique de la forme Pr ou Pfr mais aussi est plus rapide que dans le cytoplasme. Ceci suggère que l'accumulation de phyA dans le cytoplasme permet son accumulation à des niveaux élevés à l'obscurité. Enfin j'ai identifié une région similaire à un motif PEST requise pour la stabilité de phyA et j'ai aussi développé un criblage génétique non biaisé pour identifier de nouveaux composants impliqués dans la régulation de la dégradation de phyA. L'importance de ces résultats est discutée dans le dernier chapitre de cette thèse.

Looking for Validity or Testing It? The Perils of Stepwise Regression, Extreme-Scores Analysis, Heteroscedasticity, and Measurement Error

When researchers introduce a new test they have to demonstrate that it is valid, using unbiased designs and suitable statistical procedures. In this article we use Monte Carlo analyses to highlight how incorrect statistical procedures (i.e., stepwise regression, extreme scores analyses) or ignoring regression assumptions (e.g., heteroscedasticity) contribute to wrong validity estimates. Beyond these demonstrations, and as an example, we re-examined the results reported by Warwick, Nettelbeck, and Ward (2010) concerning the validity of the Ability Emotional Intelligence Measure (AEIM). Warwick et al. used the wrong statistical procedures to conclude that the AEIM was incrementally valid beyond intelligence and personality traits in predicting various outcomes. In our re-analysis, we found that the reliability-corrected multiple correlation of their measures with personality and intelligence was up to .69. Using robust statistical procedures and appropriate controls, we also found that the AEIM did not predict incremental variance in GPA, stress, loneliness, or well-being, demonstrating the importance for testing validity instead of looking for it.