Three essays on the psychology of investment and financial markets

Préface My thesis consists of three essays where I consider equilibrium asset prices and investment strategies when the market is likely to experience crashes and possibly sharp windfalls. Although each part is written as an independent and self contained article, the papers share a common behavioral approach in representing investors preferences regarding to extremal returns. Investors utility is defined over their relative performance rather than over their final wealth position, a method first proposed by Markowitz (1952b) and by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), that I extend to incorporate preferences over extremal outcomes. With the failure of the traditional expected utility models in reproducing the observed stylized features of financial markets, the Prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979) offered the first significant alternative to the expected utility paradigm by considering that people focus on gains and losses rather than on final positions. Under this setting, Barberis, Huang, and Santos (2000) and McQueen and Vorkink (2004) were able to build a representative agent optimization model which solution reproduced some of the observed risk premium and excess volatility. The research in behavioral finance is relatively new and its potential still to explore. The three essays composing my thesis propose to use and extend this setting to study investors behavior and investment strategies in a market where crashes and sharp windfalls are likely to occur. In the first paper, the preferences of a representative agent, relative to time varying positive and negative extremal thresholds are modelled and estimated. A new utility function that conciliates between expected utility maximization and tail-related performance measures is proposed. The model estimation shows that the representative agent preferences reveals a significant level of crash aversion and lottery-pursuit. Assuming a single risky asset economy the proposed specification is able to reproduce some of the distributional features exhibited by financial return series. The second part proposes and illustrates a preference-based asset allocation model taking into account investors crash aversion. Using the skewed t distribution, optimal allocations are characterized as a resulting tradeoff between the distribution four moments. The specification highlights the preference for odd moments and the aversion for even moments. Qualitatively, optimal portfolios are analyzed in terms of firm characteristics and in a setting that reflects real-time asset allocation, a systematic over-performance is obtained compared to the aggregate stock market. Finally, in my third article, dynamic option-based investment strategies are derived and illustrated for investors presenting downside loss aversion. The problem is solved in closed form when the stock market exhibits stochastic volatility and jumps. The specification of downside loss averse utility functions allows corresponding terminal wealth profiles to be expressed as options on the stochastic discount factor contingent on the loss aversion level. Therefore dynamic strategies reduce to the replicating portfolio using exchange traded and well selected options, and the risky stock.

Patient satisfaction after biofeedback for constipation and pelvic floor dyssynergia.

Patients referred for chronic constipation frequently report symptoms of straining, feeling of incomplete evacuation, or the need to facilitate defecation digitally (dyschezia). When such patients show manometric evidence of inappropriate contraction or failure to relax the pelvic floor muscles during attempts to defecate, they are diagnosed as having pelvic floor dyssynergia (Rome I). To evaluate long-term satisfaction of patients with pelvic floor dyssynergia after biofeedback. Forty-one consecutive patients referred for chronic constipation at an outpatient gastrointestinal unit and diagnosed as having pelvic floor dyssynergia who completed a full course of biofeedback. Data have been collected using a standardised questionnaire. A questionnaire survey of patients' satisfaction rate and requirement of aperients was undertaken. Mean age and symptom duration were respectively 41 and 20 years. Half of patients reported fewer than 3 bowel motions per week. Patients were treated with a mean of 5 biofeedback sessions. At the end of the therapy pelvic floor dyssynergia was alleviated in 85% of patients and 49% were able to stop all aperients. Satisfaction was maintained at follow-up telephone interviews undertaken after a mean period of 2 years, as biofeedback was helpful for 79% of patients and 47% still abstained from intake of aperients. Satisfaction after biofeedback is high for patients referred for chronic constipation and diagnosed with pelvic floor dyssynergia. Biofeedback improves symptoms related to dyschezia and reduces use of aperients.

Financial impact of introducing the Swiss-DRG reimbursement system on potentially avoidable readmissions at a university hospital.

QUESTION UNDER STUDY: Thirty-day readmissions can be classified as potentially avoidable (PARs) or not avoidable (NARs) by following a specific algorithm (SQLape®). We wanted to assess the financial impact of the Swiss-DRG system, which regroups some readmissions occurring within 18 days after discharge within the initial hospital stay, on PARs at our hospital. METHODS: First, PARs were identified from all hospitalisations recorded in 2011 at our university hospital. Second, 2012 Swiss-DRG readmission rules were applied, regrouped readmissions (RR) were identified, and their financial impact computed. Third, RRs were classified as potentially avoidable (PARRs), not avoidable (NARRs), and others causes (OCRRs). Characteristics of PARR patients and stays were retrieved, and the financial impact of PARRS was computed. RESULTS: A total of 36,777 hospitalisations were recorded in 2011, of which 3,140 were considered as readmissions (8.5%): 1,470 PARs (46.8%) and 1,733 NARs (53.2%). The 2012 Swiss-DRG rules would have resulted in 910 RRs (2.5% of hospitalisations, 29% of readmissions): 395 PARRs (43% of RR), 181 NARRs (20%), and 334 OCRRs (37%). Loss in reimbursement would have amounted to CHF 3.157 million (0.6% of total reimbursement). As many as 95% of the 395 PARR patients lived at home. In total, 28% of PARRs occurred within 3 days after discharge, and 58% lasted less than 5 days; 79% of the patients were discharged home again. Loss in reimbursement would amount to CHF 1.771 million. CONCLUSION: PARs represent a sizeable number of 30-day readmissions, as do PARRs of 18-day RRs in the 2012 Swiss DRG system. They should be the focus of attention, as the PARRs represent an avoidable loss in reimbursement.

Head-to-head comparison of length of stay, patients' outcome and satisfaction in Switzerland before and after SwissDRG-Implementation in 2012 in 2012: an observational study in two tertiary university centers.

On 1 January 2012 Swiss Diagnosis Related Groups (DRG), a new uniform payment system for in-patients was introduced in Switzerland with the intention to replace a "cost-based" with a "case-based" reimbursement system to increase efficiency. With the introduction of the new payment system we aim to answer questions raised regarding length of stay as well as patients' outcome and satisfaction. This is a prospective, two-centre observational cohort study with data from University Hospital Basel and the Cantonal Hospital Aarau, Switzerland, from January to June 2011 and 2012, respectively. Consecutive in-patients with the main diagnosis of either community-acquired pneumonia, exacerbation of COPD, acute heart failure or hip fracture were included. A questionnaire survey was sent out after discharge investigating changes before and after SwissDRG implementation. Our primary endpoint was LOS. Of 1,983 eligible patients 841 returned the questionnaire and were included into the analysis (429 in 2011, 412 in 2012). The median age was 76.7 years (50.8% male). Patients in the two years were well balanced in regard to main diagnoses and co-morbidities. Mean LOS in the overall patient population was 10.0 days and comparable between the 2011 cohort and the 2012 cohort (9.7 vs 10.3; p = 0.43). Overall satisfaction with care changed only slightly after introduction of SwissDRG and remained high (89.0% vs 87.8%; p = 0.429). Investigating the influence of the implementation of SwissDRG in 2012 regarding LOS patients' outcome and satisfaction, we found no significant changes. However, we observed some noteworthy trends, which should be monitored closely.

Satisfaction des patients du CHUV en 1996-1997

[Table des matières] I. Matériel et méthode. 1. Mode d'administration de l'enquête. 2. Questionnaire. - II. Résultats. - III. Enseignements à tirer et recommandations. 1. Lettres d'accompagnement. 2. Questionnaire enfant. 3. Questionnaire adulte CTR. 4. Questionnaire adulte. 5. Résultats détaillés par question. 6. Représentation graphique des résultats.

Adhésion thérapeutique en oncologie : persistance, qualité d'exécution et satisfaction des patients sous traitement oral et MEMS®

Introduction: en oncologie apparaissent sur le marché depuis quelques années de nouveaux traitements en formulation orale facilitant l'administration et améliorant la qualité de vie du patient mais augmentant le risque de non adhésion et d'erreurs de posologie. L'observation par MEMS® (Medication Event Monitoring System) permet le suivi et l'encadrement du traitement oral et par le biais d'entretiens semi structurés menés par le pharmacien, ouvre la discussion sur les problèmes révélés par cette prise en charge. Méthode: étude non randomisée prospective uni centrique regroupant 50 patients inclus dans 3 groupes de traitements oncologiques oraux courants (capecitabine, letrozole/exemestane, imatinib/sunitinib) bénéficiant d'un suivi oncologique classique et équipés d'un MEMS® pour un an maximum. La persistance et la qualité d'exécution sont les deux paramètres mesurés grâce aux données récoltées électroniquement. Les entretiens sont dédiés à la prévention de la non adhésion et à la gestion des effets secondaires médicamenteux. La satisfaction est évaluée par un questionnaire à la fin du suivi. Résultats: à ce jour 38 patients ont été inclus dans l'étude. Les données complètes sont disponibles pour les 19 premiers patients dont 10 sous capecitabine et 9 sous letrozole/exemestane. Dans ce collectif l'âge médian est de 66 ans avec une majorité de femmes (11:8). La persistance à 10 jours est de 85% et la qualité d'exécution de 99%. Les toxicités observées supérieures à grade 1 sont 1 syndrome mains-pieds (G3) et 1 syndrome coronarien aigu (G3). Le questionnaire de fin de suivi relève une satisfaction de 85% des patients pour les entretiens proposés (57% utiles, 28% très utiles, 15% inutiles) et le succès quant à l'intégration du MEMS® dans leur quotidien (57% très facile, 43% facile). Conclusion: la persistance et la qualité d'exécution observées dans notre collectif sont excellentes. La satisfaction retrouvée auprès des patients reflète le besoin d'un soutien complémentaire face à la complexité de la maladie oncologique. La gestion pluridisciplinaire profite tant aux patients qu'au binôme médecin-pharmacien par l'amélioration de la communication globale entre les divers acteurs et par l'identification précoce des risques de non adhésion. La poursuite de cette étude et l'analyse des futures données permettra de mesurer le réel impact de notre intervention et de justifier le bénéfice pour des patients sous traitement similaire.

Economic grand rounds: financial burden of medical care and risk of forgoing care among Europeans with depressive symptoms

Little is known about the financial burden of individuals with depressive symptoms. This study explored that burden, using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe. To assess the association between depressive symptoms and the individuals' financial burden for medical care and whether they forwent medical care because of costs, logistic regressions were performed that adjusted for age, gender, marital status, education, and chronic diseases. A total of 16,696 noninstitutionalized individuals aged 50-79 years were included in the study. Individuals with depressive symptoms and those without such symptoms bore a similar financial burden. However, individuals with depressive symptoms were at increased risk of forgoing care because of costs, which may worsen their health and financial situation

The effects of safety climate and trust on job satisfaction

Job satisfaction has been a frequently studied concept in organizational behavior. Past research has shown that trust in top management is an important factor influencing job satisfaction. To date, little attention has been paid to safety climate perceptions as a possible predictor of job satisfaction. In our study we investigated the direct and interactive effects of trust in top management and individual-level perceptions of safety climate in predicting job satisfaction. The findings of this study point to the importance of positive perceptions of safety climate on employees' job satisfaction when trust in top management is low.