Evaluating sampling strategies and logistic regression methods for modelling complex land cover changes

The role of land cover change as a significant component of global change has become increasingly recognized in recent decades. Large databases measuring land cover change, and the data which can potentially be used to explain the observed changes, are also becoming more commonly available. When developing statistical models to investigate observed changes, it is important to be aware that the chosen sampling strategy and modelling techniques can influence results. We present a comparison of three sampling strategies and two forms of grouped logistic regression models (multinomial and ordinal) in the investigation of patterns of successional change after agricultural land abandonment in Switzerland. Results indicated that both ordinal and nominal transitional change occurs in the landscape and that the use of different sampling regimes and modelling techniques as investigative tools yield different results. Synthesis and applications. Our multimodel inference identified successfully a set of consistently selected indicators of land cover change, which can be used to predict further change, including annual average temperature, the number of already overgrown neighbouring areas of land and distance to historically destructive avalanche sites. This allows for more reliable decision making and planning with respect to landscape management. Although both model approaches gave similar results, ordinal regression yielded more parsimonious models that identified the important predictors of land cover change more efficiently. Thus, this approach is favourable where land cover change pattern can be interpreted as an ordinal process. Otherwise, multinomial logistic regression is a viable alternative.

Ciné-cures (film)

Enquête à visée réflexive autour d'une mission de terrain effectuée à Mexico D.F. sur les états dits « altérés » de la conscience.

The Outlaw Pirate Heroine, An Analysis of a Durgā Figure in a 1935 Prabhat Film

(Résumé de l'ouvrage) She kills and destroys. She causes illness and disaster. The wild goddess evokes fear and terror. People worship her with blood-sacrifices and alcohol in order to appease her rage, but also in order to participate in her power for she is at once a force of destruction and a force of regeneration, of life, and of sexuality. Her creative violence reflects the ambivalent power of nature. The idea of frightening goddesses is preserved in regionally different forms throughout South Asia. The Institute for the Science of Religions, University of Berne, and the Museum of Anthropology of the University of Zurich, coordinated a symposium on wild goddesses in India and Nepal. The papers and reports on ongoing research presented at this symposium are published in this volume.

From the Cover: Nanoparticle conjugation of antigen enhances cytotoxic T-cell responses in pulmonary vaccination.

The ability of vaccines to induce memory cytotoxic T-cell responses in the lung is crucial in stemming and treating pulmonary diseases caused by viruses and bacteria. However, most approaches to subunit vaccines produce primarily humoral and only to a lesser extent cellular immune responses. We developed a nanoparticle (NP)-based carrier that, upon delivery to the lung, specifically targets pulmonary dendritic cells, thus enhancing antigen uptake and transport to the draining lymph node; antigen coupling via a disulfide link promotes highly efficient cross-presentation after uptake, inducing potent protective mucosal and systemic CD8(+) T-cell immunity. Pulmonary immunization with NP-conjugated ovalbumin (NP-ova) with CpG induced a threefold enhancement of splenic antigen-specific CD8(+) T cells displaying increased CD107a expression and IFN-γ production compared with immunization with soluble (i.e., unconjugated) ova with CpG. This enhanced response was accompanied by a potent Th17 cytokine profile in CD4(+) T cells. After 50 d, NP-ova and CpG also led to substantial enhancements in memory CD8(+) T-cell effector functions. Importantly, pulmonary vaccination with NP-ova and CpG induced as much as 10-fold increased frequencies of antigen-specific effector CD8(+) T cells to the lung and completely protected mice from morbidity following influenza-ova infection. Here, we highlight recruitment to the lung of a long-lasting pool of protective effector memory cytotoxic T-cells by our disulfide-linked antigen-conjugated NP formulation. These results suggest the reduction-reversible NP system is a highly promising platform for vaccines specifically targeting intracellular pathogens infecting the lung.

The cover basement contact beneath the Rawil axial depression (Western Alps) - True amplitude seismic processing, petrophysical properties, and modeling

Since 1986, several near-vertical seismic reflection profiles have been recorded in Switzerland in order to map the deep geologic structure of the Alps. One objective of this endeavour has been to determine the geometries of the autochthonous basement and of the external crystalline massifs, important elements for understanding the geodynamics of the Alpine orogeny. The PNR-20 seismic line W1, located in the Rawil depression of the western Swiss Alps, provides important information on this subject. It extends northward from the `'Penninic front'' across the Helvetic nappes to the Prealps. The crystalline massifs do not outcrop along this profile. Thus, the interpretation of `'near-basement'' reflections has to be constrained by down-dip projections of surface geology, `'true amplitude'' processing, rock physical property studies and modelling. 3-D seismic modelling has been used to evaluate the seismic response of two alternative down-dip projection models. To constrain the interpretation in the southern part of the profile, `'true amplitude'' processing has provided information on the strength of the reflections. Density and velocity measurements on core samples collected up-dip from the region of the seismic line have been used to evaluate reflection coefficients of typical lithologic boundaries in the region. The cover-basement contact itself is not a source of strong reflections, but strong reflections arise from within the overlaying metasedimentary cover sequence, allowing the geometry of the top of the basement to be determined on the basis of `'near-basement'' reflections. The front of the external crystalline massifs is shown to extend beneath the Prealps, about 6 km north of the expected position. A 2-D model whose seismic response shows reflection patterns very similar to the observed is proposed.

Fluid flow through the sedimentary cover in northern Switzerland recorded by calcite-celestite veins (Oftringen borehole, Olten)

Abundant veins filled by calcite, celestite and pyrite were found in the core of a 719 m deep borehole drilled in Oftringen near Olten, located in the north-western Molasse basin, close to the thrust of the Folded Jura. Host rocks are calcareous marl, argillaceous limestone and limestone of the Dogger and Malm. The delta O-18 values of vein calcite are lower than in host rock carbonate and, together with microthermometric data from fluid inclusions in vein calcite, indicate precipitation from a seawater-dominated fluid at average temperatures of 56-68A degrees C. Such temperatures were reached at the time of maximum burial of the sedimentary pile in the late Miocene. The depth profile of delta C-13 and Sr-87/Sr-86 values and Sr content of both whole-rock carbonate and vein calcite show marked trends towards negative delta C-13, high Sr-87/Sr-86, and low Sr content in the uppermost 50-150 m of the Jurassic profile (upper Oxfordian). The Sr-87/Sr-86 of vein minerals is generally higher than that of host rock carbonate, up to very high values corresponding to Burdigalian seawater (Upper Marine Molasse, Miocene), which represents the last marine incursion in the region. No evidence for internally derived radiogenic Sr (clay minerals) has been found and so an external source is required. S and O isotope composition of vein celestite and pyrite can be explained by bacterial reduction of Miocene seawater sulphate. The available data set suggests the vein mineralization precipitated from descending Burdigalian seawater and not from a fluid originating in the underlying Triassic evaporites.