Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science

Continuing developments in science and technology mean that the amounts of information forensic scientists are able to provide for criminal investigations is ever increasing. The commensurate increase in complexity creates difficulties for scientists and lawyers with regard to evaluation and interpretation, notably with respect to issues of inference and decision. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, and specifically Bayesian networks, provides powerful methods to deal with this complexity. Extensions of these methods to elements of decision theory provide further support and assistance to the judicial system. Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian decision networks for the evaluation and interpretation of scientific findings in forensic science, and for the support of decision-makers in their scientific and legal tasks. Includes self-contained introductions to probability and decision theory. Develops the characteristics of Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks and their extension to decision models. Features implementation of the methodology with reference to commercial and academically available software. Presents standard networks and their extensions that can be easily implemented and that can assist in the reader's own analysis of real cases. Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning. Contains a method for the construction of coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of scientific findings and for decisions based on them. Is written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists and lawyers with minimal mathematical background. Includes a foreword by Ian Evett. The clear and accessible style of this second edition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, applied statisticians and graduate students wishing to evaluate forensic findings from the perspective of probability and decision analysis. It will also appeal to lawyers and other scientists and professionals interested in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings, including decision making based on scientific information.

Glucose transporter-1 deficiency syndrome: the expanding clinical and genetic spectrum of a treatable disorder.

Glucose transporter-1 deficiency syndrome is caused by mutations in the SLC2A1 gene in the majority of patients and results in impaired glucose transport into the brain. From 2004-2008, 132 requests for mutational analysis of the SLC2A1 gene were studied by automated Sanger sequencing and multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification. Mutations in the SLC2A1 gene were detected in 54 patients (41%) and subsequently in three clinically affected family members. In these 57 patients we identified 49 different mutations, including six multiple exon deletions, six known mutations and 37 novel mutations (13 missense, five nonsense, 13 frame shift, four splice site and two translation initiation mutations). Clinical data were retrospectively collected from referring physicians by means of a questionnaire. Three different phenotypes were recognized: (i) the classical phenotype (84%), subdivided into early-onset (<2 years) (65%) and late-onset (18%); (ii) a non-classical phenotype, with mental retardation and movement disorder, without epilepsy (15%); and (iii) one adult case of glucose transporter-1 deficiency syndrome with minimal symptoms. Recognizing glucose transporter-1 deficiency syndrome is important, since a ketogenic diet was effective in most of the patients with epilepsy (86%) and also reduced movement disorders in 48% of the patients with a classical phenotype and 71% of the patients with a non-classical phenotype. The average delay in diagnosing classical glucose transporter-1 deficiency syndrome was 6.6 years (range 1 month-16 years). Cerebrospinal fluid glucose was below 2.5 mmol/l (range 0.9-2.4 mmol/l) in all patients and cerebrospinal fluid : blood glucose ratio was below 0.50 in all but one patient (range 0.19-0.52). Cerebrospinal fluid lactate was low to normal in all patients. Our relatively large series of 57 patients with glucose transporter-1 deficiency syndrome allowed us to identify correlations between genotype, phenotype and biochemical data. Type of mutation was related to the severity of mental retardation and the presence of complex movement disorders. Cerebrospinal fluid : blood glucose ratio was related to type of mutation and phenotype. In conclusion, a substantial number of the patients with glucose transporter-1 deficiency syndrome do not have epilepsy. Our study demonstrates that a lumbar puncture provides the diagnostic clue to glucose transporter-1 deficiency syndrome and can thereby dramatically reduce diagnostic delay to allow early start of the ketogenic diet.

Causal explanations and scientific realism in particle physics

Particle physics studies highly complex processes which cannot be directly observed. Scientific realism claims that we are nevertheless warranted in believing that these processes really occur and that the objects involved in them really exist. This dissertation defends a version of scientific realism, called causal realism, in the context of particle physics. I start by introducing the central theses and arguments in the recent philosophical debate on scientific realism (chapter 1), with a special focus on an important presupposition of the debate, namely common sense realism. Chapter 2 then discusses entity realism, which introduces a crucial element into the debate by emphasizing the importance of experiments in defending scientific realism. Most of the chapter is concerned with Ian Hacking's position, but I also argue that Nancy Cartwright's version of entity realism is ultimately preferable as a basis for further development. In chapter 3,1 take a step back and consider the question whether the realism debate is worth pursuing at all. Arthur Fine has given a negative answer to that question, proposing his natural ontologica! attitude as an alternative to both realism and antirealism. I argue that the debate (in particular the realist side of it) is in fact less vicious than Fine presents it. The second part of my work (chapters 4-6) develops, illustrates and defends causal realism. The key idea is that inference to the best explanation is reliable in some cases, but not in others. Chapter 4 characterizes the difference between these two kinds of cases in terms of three criteria which distinguish causal from theoretical warrant. In order to flesh out this distinction, chapter 5 then applies it to a concrete case from the history of particle physics, the discovery of the neutrino. This case study shows that the distinction between causal and theoretical warrant is crucial for understanding what it means to "directly detect" a new particle. But the distinction is also an effective tool against what I take to be the presently most powerful objection to scientific realism: Kyle Stanford's argument from unconceived alternatives. I respond to this argument in chapter 6, and I illustrate my response with a discussion of Jean Perrin's experimental work concerning the atomic hypothesis. In the final part of the dissertation, I turn to the specific challenges posed to realism by quantum theories. One of these challenges comes from the experimental violations of Bell's inequalities, which indicate a failure of locality in the quantum domain. I show in chapter 7 how causal realism can further our understanding of quantum non-locality by taking account of some recent experimental results. Another challenge to realism in quantum mechanics comes from delayed-choice experiments, which seem to imply that certain aspects of what happens in an experiment can be influenced by later choices of the experimenter. Chapter 8 analyzes these experiments and argues that they do not warrant the antirealist conclusions which some commentators draw from them. It pays particular attention to the case of delayed-choice entanglement swapping and the corresponding question whether entanglement is a real physical relation. In chapter 9,1 finally address relativistic quantum theories. It is often claimed that these theories are incompatible with a particle ontology, and this calls into question causal realism's commitment to localizable and countable entities. I defend the commitments of causal realism against these objections, and I conclude with some remarks connecting the interpretation of quantum field theory to more general metaphysical issues confronting causal realism.

Overlapping pathways to transplant glomerulopathy: chronic humoral rejection, hepatitis C infection, and thrombotic microangiopathy.

Transplant glomerulopathy (TG) has received much attention in recent years as a symptom of chronic humoral rejection; however, many cases lack C4d deposition and/or circulating donor-specific antibodies (DSAs). To determine the contribution of other causes, we studied 209 consecutive renal allograft indication biopsies for chronic allograft dysfunction, of which 25 met the pathological criteria of TG. Three partially overlapping etiologies accounted for 21 (84%) cases: C4d-positive (48%), hepatitis C-positive (36%), and thrombotic microangiopathy (TMA)-positive (32%) TG. The majority of patients with confirmed TMA were also hepatitis C positive, and the majority of hepatitis C-positive patients had TMA. DSAs were significantly associated with C4d-positive but not with hepatitis C-positive TG. The prevalence of hepatitis C was significantly higher in the TG group than in 29 control patients. Within the TG cohort, those who were hepatitis C-positive developed allograft failure significantly earlier than hepatitis C-negative patients. Thus, TG is not a specific diagnosis but a pattern of pathological injury involving three major overlapping pathways. It is important to distinguish these mechanisms, as they may have different prognostic and therapeutic implications.

Overlapping Pathways to Transplant Glomerulopathy: Chronic Humoral Rejection, Hepatitis C Infection and Thrombotic Microangiopathy

Background:Transplant glomerulopathy (TG) has received much attention in recent years as a manifestation of chronic humoral rejection (CHR). However, many cases lack C4d deposition and/or circulating donor-specifi c antibodies, and the contribution of other potential causes has not been fully addressed.Methods: Of 209 consecutive renal allograft indication biopsies performed for chronic allograft dysfunction, 25 that met pathologic criteria of TG (>10% duplication of the GBM without immune complex deposition) were examined for various etiologies, including hepatitis C infection (HCV), thrombotic microangiopathy (TMA), and CHR. 29 cases of biopsy-proven isolated chronic calcineurin inhibitor toxicity from the same time period were used as controls for comparing the prevalence of HCV.Results: Three partially overlapping categories accounted for 84% of the cases: C4d+TG (48%), HCV+TG (36%) and TMA+TG (32%). The majority of TMA+ cases were HCV+ (63%) and the majority of HCV+ cases had TMA (56%). Donor specifi c antibodies were associated with C4d+TG (7/8 vs. 1/4 C4d-TG; P<0.02), but not with HCV+TG. The prevalence of HCV was higher in the TG group than in 29 control patients without TG (36% vs. 7%, P<0.01). HCV+TG patients developed allograft failure earlier than HCV-TG patients (67.2 ± 60.2 mo versus 153.4 ± 126.2 mo, P=0.02). On a multivariate analysis, out of HCV, TG and C4d, only HCV was found to be a signifi cant risk factor for a more rapid allograft loss.Conclusion: We conclude that TG is not a specifi c diagnosis, but a pattern of pathologic injury with 3 major overlapping pathways involving CHR, HCV infection and TMA. It is important to distinguish these mechanisms, as they may have differentprognostic and therapeutic implications.

Head-to-Head Comparison of Poxvirus NYVAC and ALVAC Vectors Expressing Identical HIV-1 Clade C Immunogens in Prime-Boost Combination with Env Protein in Nonhuman Primates.

UNLABELLED: We compared the HIV-1-specific cellular and humoral immune responses elicited in rhesus macaques immunized with two poxvirus vectors (NYVAC and ALVAC) expressing the same HIV-1 antigens from clade C, Env gp140 as a trimeric cell-released protein and a Gag-Pol-Nef polyprotein as Gag-induced virus-like particles (VLPs) (referred to as NYVAC-C and ALVAC-C). The immunization protocol consisted of two doses of the corresponding poxvirus vector plus two doses of a combination of the poxvirus vector and a purified HIV-1 gp120 protein from clade C. This immunogenicity profile was also compared to that elicited by vaccine regimens consisting of two doses of the ALVAC vector expressing HIV-1 antigens from clades B/E (ALVAC-vCP1521) plus two doses of a combination of ALVAC-vCP1521 and HIV-1 gp120 protein from clades B/E (similar to the RV144 trial regimen) or clade C. The results showed that immunization of macaques with NYVAC-C stimulated at different times more potent HIV-1-specific CD4(+) T-cell responses and induced a trend toward higher-magnitude HIV-1-specific CD8(+) T-cell immune responses than did ALVAC-C. Furthermore, NYVAC-C induced a trend toward higher levels of binding IgG antibodies against clade C HIV-1 gp140, gp120, or murine leukemia virus (MuLV) gp70-scaffolded V1/V2 and toward best cross-clade-binding IgG responses against HIV-1 gp140 from clades A, B, and group M consensus, than did ALVAC-C. Of the linear binding IgG responses, most were directed against the V3 loop in all immunization groups. Additionally, NYVAC-C and ALVAC-C also induced similar levels of HIV-1-neutralizing antibodies and antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) responses. Interestingly, binding IgA antibody levels against HIV-1 gp120 or MuLV gp70-scaffolded V1/V2 were absent or very low in all immunization groups. Overall, these results provide a comprehensive survey of the immunogenicity of NYVAC versus ALVAC expressing HIV-1 antigens in nonhuman primates and indicate that NYVAC may represent an alternative candidate to ALVAC in the development of a future HIV-1 vaccine. IMPORTANCE: The finding of a safe and effective HIV/AIDS vaccine immunogen is one of the main research priorities. Here, we generated two poxvirus-based HIV vaccine candidates (NYVAC and ALVAC vectors) expressing the same clade C HIV-1 antigens in separate vectors, and we analyzed in nonhuman primates their immunogenicity profiles. The results showed that immunization with NYVAC-C induced a trend toward higher HIV-1-specific cellular and humoral immune responses than did ALVAC-C, indicating that this new NYVAC vector could be a novel optimized HIV/AIDS vaccine candidate for human clinical trials.

Mesure de l'impact de l'implication des proches aidants de patients hospitalises dans une unité de soins psychiatriques aigus sur eux-mêmes

Le but de cette étude est de mesurer ainsi que de qualifier l'impact de l'implication des proches aidants de patients hospitalisés dans des unités de soins psychiatriques aigus sur eux-mêmes. Le cadre conceptuel utilisé est celui du fardeau des familles de Schene (1990). Il différencie les parties objectives et subjectives du fardeau familial. La récolte de données a été réalisée à l'aide de l'Involvement Evaluation Questionnaire (IEQ). Les résultats de cette étude montrent que les proches aidants souffrent d'un niveau d'inquiétude élevé, 3.8 sur une échelle de Likert à 5 questions, ainsi que d'un niveau de tension à 2.44 sur une échelle de Likert à 5 questions. Des associations ont été trouvées. L'augmentation de la durée du trouble diminue l'inquiétude, avec une valeur ρ de 0.048. Le fait d'être habitué à la situation a également un impact en diminuant la tension, avec une valeur ρ de 0.002. Plus on est « habitué à la situation », avec une valeur ρ de -0.021, moins le proche est inquiet par rapport à la situation du patient. Ainsi que, plus le patient est jeune, plus le proche aidant ressent de tension, avec une valeur ρ de 0.008. Ces résultats, peu généralisables au vu du petit échantillon (n=24), pourraient toutefois impliquer une réflexion approfondie sur l'accueil, la place et le soutien des proches aidants de patients souffrants de troubles psychiatriques hospitalisés dans une unité de soins aigus de la part des infirmières.

Postoperative Adjuvant Lapatinib and Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy Followed by Maintenance Lapatinib Monotherapy in High-Risk Patients With Resected Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck: A Phase III, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study.

PURPOSE: This multicenter phase III study evaluated the efficacy and safety of lapatinib, an epidermal growth factor receptor/ErbB2 inhibitor, administered concomitantly with chemoradiotherapy and as maintenance monotherapy in patients with high-risk surgically treated squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (SCCHN). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with resected stage II to IVA SCCHN, with a surgical margin ≤ 5 mm and/or extracapsular extension, were randomly assigned to chemoradiotherapy (66 Gy total radiation dose and cisplatin 100 mg/m(2) per day administered on days 1, 22, and 43) plus placebo or lapatinib (1,500 mg per day) before and during chemoradiotherapy, followed by 12 months of maintenance monotherapy. RESULTS: Six hundred eighty-eight patients were enrolled (lapatinib, n = 346; placebo, n = 342). With a median follow-up time of 35.3 months, the study ended early because of the apparent plateauing of disease-free survival (DFS) events. Median DFS assessed by an independent review committee was 53.6 months and not reached for lapatinib and placebo, respectively (hazard ratio, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.85 to 1.43). Investigator-assessed results confirmed the independent review committee assessment. No significant differences in DFS by human papillomavirus status or overall survival were observed between treatment arms. Similar numbers of patients in both treatment arms experienced adverse events (AEs), with more patients in the lapatinib arm than the placebo arm experiencing serious AEs (48% v 40%, respectively). The most commonly observed treatment-related AEs were diarrhea and rash, both predominantly in the lapatinib arm. CONCLUSION: Addition of lapatinib to chemoradiotherapy and its use as long-term maintenance therapy does not offer any efficacy benefits and had additional toxicity compared with placebo in patients with surgically treated high-risk SCCHN.