Direct evidence for the existence of dairying farms in prehistoric Central Europe (4th millennium BC)

The molecular and isotopic chemistry of organic residues from archaeological potsherds was used to obtain further insight into the dietary trends and economies at the Constance lake-shore Neolithic settlements. The archaeological organic residues from the Early Late Neolithic (3922-3902 BC) site Hornstaad-Hornle IA/Germany are, at present, the oldest archaeological samples analysed at the Institute of Mineralogy and Geochemistry of the University of Lausanne. The approach includes 13C/12C and 15N/14N ratios of the bulk organic residues, fatty acids distribution and 13C/12C ratios of individual fatty acids. The results are compared with those obtained from the over 500 years younger Neolithic (3384-3370 BC) settlement of Arbon Bleiche 3/Switzerland and with samples of modern vegetable oils and fat of animals that have been fed exclusively on C3 forage grasses. The overall fatty acid composition (C9 to C24 range, maximizing at C14 and C16), the bulk 13C/12C and 15N/14N ratios (delta13C, delta15N) and the 13C/12C ratios of palmitic (C16:0), stearic (C18:0) and oleic acids (C18:1) of the organic residues indicate that most of the studied samples (25 from 47 samples and 5 from 41 in the delta13C18:0 vs. delta13C16:0 and delta13C18:0 vs. delta13C18:1 diagrams, respectively) from Hornstaad-Hornle IA and Arbon Bleiche 3 sherds contain fat residues of pre-industrial ruminant milk, and young suckling calf/lamb adipose. These data provide direct proof of milk and meat (mainly from young suckling calves) consumption and farming practices for a sustainable dairying in Neolithic villages in central Europe around 4000 BC.dagger

Concentration of Airborne Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA and MSSA), Total Bacteria, and Endotoxins in Pig Farms.

Pigs are very often colonized by Staphylococcus aureus and transmission of such pig-associated S. aureus to humans can cause serious medical, hygiene, and economic problems. The transmission route of zoonotic pathogens colonizing farm animals to humans is not well established and bioaerosols could play an important role. The aim of this study was to assess the potential occupational risk of working with S. aureus-colonized pigs in Switzerland. We estimated the airborne contamination by S. aureus in 37 pig farms (20 nursery and 17 fattening units; 25 in summer, 12 in winter). Quantification of total airborne bacterial DNA, airborne Staphylococcus sp. DNA, fungi, and airborne endotoxins was also performed. In this experiment, the presence of cultivable airborne methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) CC398 in a pig farm in Switzerland was reported for the first time. Airborne methicillin-sensitive S. aureus (MSSA) was found in ~30% of farms. The average airborne concentration of DNA copy number of total bacteria and Staphylococcus sp. measured by quantitative polymerase chain reaction was very high, respectively reaching values of 75 (± 28) × 10(7) and 35 (± 9.8) × 10(5) copy numbers m(-3) in summer and 96 (± 19) × 10(8) and 40 (± 12) × 10(6) copy numbers m(-3) in winter. Total mean airborne concentrations of endotoxins (1298 units of endotoxin m(-3)) and fungi (5707 colony-forming units m(-3)) exceeded the Swiss recommended values and were higher in winter than in summer. In conclusion, Swiss pig farmers will have to tackle a new emerging occupational risk, which could also have a strong impact on public health. The need to inform pig farmers about biological occupational risks is therefore crucial.

Prevalence and diversity of Chlamydiales in Swiss ruminant farms.

Chlamydia and Chlamydia-related bacteria are known to infect various organisms and may cause a wide range of diseases, especially in ruminants. To gain insight into the prevalence of these bacteria in the ruminant environment, we applied a pan-Chlamydiales PCR followed by sequencing to 72 ruminant environmental samples from water, feed bunks and floors. Chlamydiales from four family-level lineages were detected indicating a high biodiversity of Chlamydiales in ruminant farms. Parachlamydiaceae were detected in all three types of environmental samples and was the most abundant family-level taxon (60%). In contrast, only one bacterium from each of the following family-level lineages was identified: Chlamydiaceae, Criblamydiaceae and Simkaniaceae. The observed high prevalence of Parachlamydiaceae in water samples may suggest water as the main source of contamination for ruminants as well as their environment due to spoilage. The absence of reported infections in the investigated ruminant farms might indicate that either detected Chlamydiales are of reduced pathogenicity or infective doses have not been reached.

Using active learning for monitoring networks design: The example of wind power plants sites evaluation

Locating new wind farms is of crucial importance for energy policies of the next decade. To select the new location, an accurate picture of the wind fields is necessary. However, characterizing wind fields is a difficult task, since the phenomenon is highly nonlinear and related to complex topographical features. In this paper, we propose both a nonparametric model to estimate wind speed at different time instants and a procedure to discover underrepresented topographic conditions, where new measuring stations could be added. Compared to space filling techniques, this last approach privileges optimization of the output space, thus locating new potential measuring sites through the uncertainty of the model itself.

History matters: relating paths and rates of landscape change to butterfly species decline

Western European landscapes have drastically changed since the 1950s, with agricultural intensifications and the spread of urban settlements considered the most important drivers of this land-use/land-cover change. Losses of habitat for fauna and flora have been a direct consequence of this development. In the present study, we relate butterfly occurrence to land-use/land-cover changes over five decades between 1951 and 2000. The study area covers the entire Swiss territory. The 10 explanatory variables originate from agricultural statistics and censuses. Both state as well as rate was used as explanatory variables. Species distribution data were obtained from natural history collections. We selected eight butterfly species: four species occur on wetlands and four occur on dry grasslands. We used cluster analysis to track land-use/land-cover changes and to group communes based on similar trajectories of change. Generalized linear models were applied to identify factors that were significantly correlated with the persistence or disappearance of butterfly species. Results showed that decreasing agricultural areas and densities of farms with more than 10 ha of cultivated land are significantly related with wetland species decline, and increasing densities of livestock seem to have favored disappearance of dry grassland species. Moreover, we show that species declines are not only dependent on land-use/land-cover states but also on the rates of change; that is, the higher the transformation rate from small to large farms, the higher the loss of dry grassland species. We suggest that more attention should be paid to the rates of landscape change as feasible drivers of species change and derive some management suggestions.

Combining probabilistic land-use change and tree population dynamics modelling to simulate responses in mountain forests

Altitudinal tree lines are mainly constrained by temperature, but can also be influenced by factors such as human activity, particularly in the European Alps, where centuries of agricultural use have affected the tree-line. Over the last decades this trend has been reversed due to changing agricultural practices and land-abandonment. We aimed to combine a statistical land-abandonment model with a forest dynamics model, to take into account the combined effects of climate and human land-use on the Alpine tree-line in Switzerland. Land-abandonment probability was expressed by a logistic regression function of degree-day sum, distance from forest edge, soil stoniness, slope, proportion of employees in the secondary and tertiary sectors, proportion of commuters and proportion of full-time farms. This was implemented in the TreeMig spatio-temporal forest model. Distance from forest edge and degree-day sum vary through feed-back from the dynamics part of TreeMig and climate change scenarios, while the other variables remain constant for each grid cell over time. The new model, TreeMig-LAb, was tested on theoretical landscapes, where the variables in the land-abandonment model were varied one by one. This confirmed the strong influence of distance from forest and slope on the abandonment probability. Degree-day sum has a more complex role, with opposite influences on land-abandonment and forest growth. TreeMig-LAb was also applied to a case study area in the Upper Engadine (Swiss Alps), along with a model where abandonment probability was a constant. Two scenarios were used: natural succession only (100% probability) and a probability of abandonment based on past transition proportions in that area (2.1% per decade). The former showed new forest growing in all but the highest-altitude locations. The latter was more realistic as to numbers of newly forested cells, but their location was random and the resulting landscape heterogeneous. Using the logistic regression model gave results consistent with observed patterns of land-abandonment: existing forests expanded and gaps closed, leading to an increasingly homogeneous landscape.

High incidence of childhood hemolytic uremic syndrome in Switzerland is associated with indicators of livestock farming intensity

Background: Hemolytic-uremic syndrome (HUS) is a multisystem disorder associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Typically, HUS is preceded by an episode of (bloody) diarrhea mostly due to Shiga-toxin (Stx) producing Escherichia coli (STEC). The main reservoir for STEC is the intestine of healthy ruminants, mostly cattle, and recent studies have revealed an association between indicators of livestock density and human STEC infection or HUS, respectively. Nationwide data on HUS in Switzerland have been established through the Swiss Pediatric Surveillance Unit (SPSU) [Schifferli et al. Eur J Pediatr. 2010; 169:591-8]. Aims: Analysis of age-specific incidence rate of childhood HUS and possible association of Shiga-toxin associated HUS (Stx-HUS) with indicators of livestock farming intensity. Methods: Epidemiological and ecological analysis based on the SPSU data (1997-2003) and the database of the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (data on population and agriculture). Results: One hundred-fourteen cases were registered, 88% were ≤5 years old. The overall annual incidence rate was 1.42 (0.60-1.91) and 4.23 (1.76-6.19) per 100000 children ≤5 and ≤16 years, respectively (P = 0.005). Stx-HUS was more frequent compared to cases not associated with STEC (P = 0.002). The incidence rate for Stx-HUS was 3.85 (1.76-5.65) in children ≤5, compared to 0.27 (0.00-0.54) per 100'000 children 5-16 years (P = 0.002), respectively. The incidence rate of cases not associated with STEC infection did not significantly vary with age (P = 0.107). Compared to data from Scotland, Canada, Ireland, Germany, England, Australia, Italy, and Austria the annual incidence rate of HUS in young children is highest in Switzerland. Ecological analysis revealed strong association between the incidence rate of Stx-HUS and indicators of rural occupation (agricultural labourer / population, P = 0.030), farming intensity (livestock breeding farms / population, P = 0.027) and cattle density (cattle / cultivated area, P = 0.013). Conclusions: Alike in other countries, HUS in Switzerland is mostly associated with STEC infection and affects predominantly young children. However, the incidence rate is higher compared to countries abroad and is significantly correlated with indicators of livestock farming intensity. The present data support the impact of direct and indirect contact with animals or fecal contaminants in transmission of STEC to humans.

Changing landscapes of Switzerland: assessing effects of historic and future land uses and land covers on the occurrence of selected butterfly species

Summary Landscapes are continuously changing. Natural forces of change such as heavy rainfall and fires can exert lasting influences on their physical form. However, changes related to human activities have often shaped landscapes more distinctly. In Western Europe, especially modern agricultural practices and the expanse of overbuilt land have left their marks in the landscapes since the middle of the 20th century. In the recent years men realised that mare and more changes that were formerly attributed to natural forces might indirectly be the result of their own action. Perhaps the most striking landscape change indirectly driven by human activity we can witness in these days is the large withdrawal of Alpine glaciers. Together with the landscapes also habitats of animal and plant species have undergone vast and sometimes rapid changes that have been hold responsible for the ongoing loss of biodiversity. Thereby, still little knowledge is available about probable effects of the rate of landscape change on species persistence and disappearance. Therefore, the development and speed of land use/land cover in the Swiss communes between the 1950s and 1990s were reconstructed using 10 parameters from agriculture and housing censuses, and were further correlated with changes in butterfly species occurrences. Cluster analyses were used to detect spatial patterns of change on broad spatial scales. Thereby, clusters of communes showing similar changes or transformation rates were identified for single decades and put into a temporally dynamic sequence. The obtained picture on the changes showed a prevalent replacement of non-intensive agriculture by intensive practices, a strong spreading of urban communes around city centres, and transitions towards larger farm sizes in the mountainous areas. Increasing transformation rates toward more intensive agricultural managements were especially found until the 1970s, whereas afterwards the trends were commonly negative. However, transformation rates representing the development of residential buildings showed positive courses at any time. The analyses concerning the butterfly species showed that grassland species reacted sensitively to the density of livestock in the communes. This might indicate the augmented use of dry grasslands as cattle pastures that show altered plant species compositions. Furthermore, these species also decreased in communes where farms with an agricultural area >5ha have disappeared. The species of the wetland habitats were favoured in communes with smaller fractions of agricultural areas and lower densities of large farms (>10ha) but did not show any correlation to transformation rates. It was concluded from these analyses that transformation rates might influence species disappearance to a certain extent but that states of the environmental predictors might generally outweigh the importance of the corresponding rates. Information on the current distribution of species is evident for nature conservation. Planning authorities that define priority areas for species protection or examine and authorise construction projects need to know about the spatial distribution of species. Hence, models that simulate the potential spatial distribution of species have become important decision tools. The underlying statistical analyses such as the widely used generalised linear models (GLM) often rely on binary species presence-absence data. However, often only species presence data have been colleted, especially for vagrant, rare or cryptic species such as butterflies or reptiles. Modellers have thus introduced randomly selected absence data to design distribution models. Yet, selecting false absence data might bias the model results. Therefore, we investigated several strategies to select more reliable absence data to model the distribution of butterfly species based on historical distribution data. The results showed that better models were obtained when historical data from longer time periods were considered. Furthermore, model performance was additionally increased when long-term data of species that show similar habitat requirements as the modelled species were used. This successful methodological approach was further applied to assess consequences of future landscape changes on the occurrence of butterfly species inhabiting dry grasslands or wetlands. These habitat types have been subjected to strong deterioration in the recent decades, what makes their protection a future mission. Four spatially explicit scenarios that described (i) ongoing land use changes as observed between 1985 and 1997, (ii) liberalised agricultural markets, and (iii) slightly and (iv) strongly lowered agricultural production provided probable directions of landscape change. Current species-environment relationships were derived from a statistical model and used to predict future occurrence probabilities in six major biogeographical regions in Switzerland, comprising the Jura Mountains, the Plateau, the Northern and Southern Alps, as well as the Western and Eastern Central Alps. The main results were that dry grasslands species profited from lowered agricultural production, whereas overgrowth of open areas in the liberalisation scenario might impair species occurrence. The wetland species mostly responded with decreases in their occurrence probabilities in the scenarios, due to a loss of their preferred habitat. Further analyses about factors currently influencing species occurrences confirmed anthropogenic causes such as urbanisation, abandonment of open land, and agricultural intensification. Hence, landscape planning should pay more attention to these forces in areas currently inhabited by these butterfly species to enable sustainable species persistence. In this thesis historical data were intensively used to reconstruct past developments and to make them useful for current investigations. Yet, the availability of historical data and the analyses on broader spatial scales has often limited the explanatory power of the conducted analyses. Meaningful descriptors of former habitat characteristics and abundant species distribution data are generally sparse, especially for fine scale analyses. However, this situation can be ameliorated by broadening the extent of the study site and the used grain size, as was done in this thesis by considering the whole of Switzerland with its communes. Nevertheless, current monitoring projects and data recording techniques are promising data sources that might allow more detailed analyses about effects of long-term species reactions on landscape changes in the near future. This work, however, also showed the value of historical species distribution data as for example their potential to locate still unknown species occurrences. The results might therefore contribute to further research activities that investigate current and future species distributions considering the immense richness of historical distribution data. Résumé Les paysages changent continuellement. Des farces naturelles comme des pluies violentes ou des feux peuvent avoir une influence durable sur la forme du paysage. Cependant, les changements attribués aux activités humaines ont souvent modelé les paysages plus profondément. Depuis les années 1950 surtout, les pratiques agricoles modernes ou l'expansion des surfaces d'habitat et d'infrastructure ont caractérisé le développement du paysage en Europe de l'Ouest. Ces dernières années, l'homme a commencé à réaliser que beaucoup de changements «naturels » pourraient indirectement résulter de ses propres activités. Le changement de paysage le plus apparent dont nous sommes témoins de nos jours est probablement l'immense retraite des glaciers alpins. Avec les paysages, les habitats des animaux et des plantes ont aussi été exposés à des changements vastes et quelquefois rapides, tenus pour coresponsable de la continuelle diminution de la biodiversité. Cependant, nous savons peu des effets probables de la rapidité des changements du paysage sur la persistance et la disparition des espèces. Le développement et la rapidité du changement de l'utilisation et de la couverture du sol dans les communes suisses entre les années 50 et 90 ont donc été reconstruits au moyen de 10 variables issues des recensements agricoles et résidentiels et ont été corrélés avec des changements de présence des papillons diurnes. Des analyses de groupes (Cluster analyses) ont été utilisées pour détecter des arrangements spatiaux de changements à l'échelle de la Suisse. Des communes avec des changements ou rapidités comparables ont été délimitées pour des décennies séparées et ont été placées en séquence temporelle, en rendrent une certaine dynamique du changement. Les résultats ont montré un remplacement répandu d'une agriculture extensive des pratiques intensives, une forte expansion des faubourgs urbains autour des grandes cités et des transitions vers de plus grandes surfaces d'exploitation dans les Alpes. Dans le cas des exploitations agricoles, des taux de changement croissants ont été observés jusqu'aux années 70, alors que la tendance a généralement été inversée dans les années suivantes. Par contre, la vitesse de construction des nouvelles maisons a montré des courbes positives pendant les 50 années. Les analyses sur la réaction des papillons diurnes ont montré que les espèces des prairies sèches supportaient une grande densité de bétail. Il est possible que dans ces communes beaucoup des prairies sèches aient été fertilisées et utilisées comme pâturages, qui ont une autre composition floristique. De plus, les espèces ont diminué dans les communes caractérisées par une rapide perte des fermes avec une surface cultivable supérieure à 5 ha. Les espèces des marais ont été favorisées dans des communes avec peu de surface cultivable et peu de grandes fermes, mais n'ont pas réagi aux taux de changement. Il en a donc été conclu que la rapidité des changements pourrait expliquer les disparitions d'espèces dans certains cas, mais que les variables prédictives qui expriment des états pourraient être des descripteurs plus importants. Des informations sur la distribution récente des espèces sont importantes par rapport aux mesures pour la conservation de la nature. Pour des autorités occupées à définir des zones de protection prioritaires ou à autoriser des projets de construction, ces informations sont indispensables. Les modèles de distribution spatiale d'espèces sont donc devenus des moyens de décision importants. Les méthodes statistiques courantes comme les modèles linéaires généralisés (GLM) demandent des données de présence et d'absence des espèces. Cependant, souvent seules les données de présence sont disponibles, surtout pour les animaux migrants, rares ou cryptiques comme des papillons ou des reptiles. C'est pourquoi certains modélisateurs ont choisi des absences au hasard, avec le risque d'influencer le résultat en choisissant des fausses absences. Nous avons établi plusieurs stratégies, basées sur des données de distribution historique des papillons diurnes, pour sélectionner des absences plus fiables. Les résultats ont démontré que de meilleurs modèles pouvaient être obtenus lorsque les données proviennent des périodes de temps plus longues. En plus, la performance des modèles a pu être augmentée en considérant des données de distribution à long terme d'espèces qui occupent des habitats similaires à ceux de l'espèce cible. Vu le succès de cette stratégie, elle a été utilisée pour évaluer les effets potentiels des changements de paysage futurs sur la distribution des papillons des prairies sèches et marais, deux habitats qui ont souffert de graves détériorations. Quatre scénarios spatialement explicites, décrivant (i) l'extrapolation des changements de l'utilisation de sol tels qu'observés entre 1985 et 1997, (ii) la libéralisation des marchés agricoles, et une production agricole (iii) légèrement amoindrie et (iv) fortement diminuée, ont été utilisés pour générer des directions de changement probables. Les relations actuelles entre la distribution des espèces et l'environnement ont été déterminées par le biais des modèles statistiques et ont été utilisées pour calculer des probabilités de présence selon les scénarios dans six régions biogéographiques majeures de la Suisse, comportant le Jura, le Plateau, les Alpes du Nord, du Sud, centrales orientales et centrales occidentales. Les résultats principaux ont montré que les espèces des prairies sèches pourraient profiter d'une diminution de la production agricole, mais qu'elles pourraient aussi disparaître à cause de l'embroussaillement des terres ouvertes dû à la libéralisation des marchés agricoles. La probabilité de présence des espèces de marais a décrû à cause d'une perte générale des habitats favorables. De plus, les analyses ont confirmé que des causes humaines comme l'urbanisation, l'abandon des terres ouvertes et l'intensification de l'agriculture affectent actuellement ces espèces. Ainsi ces forces devraient être mieux prises en compte lors de planifications paysagères, pour que ces papillons diurnes puissent survivre dans leurs habitats actuels. Dans ce travail de thèse, des données historiques ont été intensivement utilisées pour reconstruire des développements anciens et pour les rendre utiles à des recherches contemporaines. Cependant, la disponibilité des données historiques et les analyses à grande échelle ont souvent limité le pouvoir explicatif des analyses. Des descripteurs pertinents pour caractériser les habitats anciens et des données suffisantes sur la distribution des espèces sont généralement rares, spécialement pour des analyses à des échelles fores. Cette situation peut être améliorée en augmentant l'étendue du site d'étude et la résolution, comme il a été fait dans cette thèse en considérant toute la Suisse avec ses communes. Cependant, les récents projets de surveillance et les techniques de collecte de données sont des sources prometteuses, qui pourraient permettre des analyses plus détaillés sur les réactions à long terme des espèces aux changements de paysage dans le futur. Ce travail a aussi montré la valeur des anciennes données de distribution, par exemple leur potentiel pour aider à localiser des' présences d'espèces encore inconnues. Les résultats peuvent contribuer à des activités de recherche à venir, qui étudieraient les distributions récentes ou futures d'espèces en considérant l'immense richesse des données de distribution historiques.

Predictive analysis and mapping of indoor radon concentrations in a complex environment using kernel estimation: an application to Switzerland.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to develop models based on kernel regression and probability estimation in order to predict and map IRC in Switzerland by taking into account all of the following: architectural factors, spatial relationships between the measurements, as well as geological information. METHODS: We looked at about 240,000 IRC measurements carried out in about 150,000 houses. As predictor variables we included: building type, foundation type, year of construction, detector type, geographical coordinates, altitude, temperature and lithology into the kernel estimation models. We developed predictive maps as well as a map of the local probability to exceed 300 Bq/m(3). Additionally, we developed a map of a confidence index in order to estimate the reliability of the probability map. RESULTS: Our models were able to explain 28% of the variations of IRC data. All variables added information to the model. The model estimation revealed a bandwidth for each variable, making it possible to characterize the influence of each variable on the IRC estimation. Furthermore, we assessed the mapping characteristics of kernel estimation overall as well as by municipality. Overall, our model reproduces spatial IRC patterns which were already obtained earlier. On the municipal level, we could show that our model accounts well for IRC trends within municipal boundaries. Finally, we found that different building characteristics result in different IRC maps. Maps corresponding to detached houses with concrete foundations indicate systematically smaller IRC than maps corresponding to farms with earth foundation. CONCLUSIONS: IRC mapping based on kernel estimation is a powerful tool to predict and analyze IRC on a large-scale as well as on a local level. This approach enables to develop tailor-made maps for different architectural elements and measurement conditions and to account at the same time for geological information and spatial relations between IRC measurements.

Searching for sex-reversals to explain population demography and the evolution of sex chromosomes.

Sex determination can be purely genetic (as in mammals and birds), purely environmental (as in many reptiles), or genetic but reversible by environmental factors during a sensitive period in life, as in many fish and amphibians (Wallace et al. 1999; Baroiller et al. 2009a; Stelkens & Wedekind 2010). Such environmental sex reversal (ESR) can be induced, for example, by temperature changes or by exposure to hormone-active substances. ESR has long been recognized as a means to produce more profitable single-sex cultures in fish farms (Cnaani & Levavi-Sivan 2009), but we know very little about its prevalence in the wild. Obviously, induced feminization or masculinization may immediately distort population sex ratios, and distorted sex ratios are indeed reported from some amphibian and fish populations (Olsen et al. 2006; Alho et al. 2008; Brykov et al. 2008). However, sex ratios can also be skewed by, for example, segregation distorters or sex-specific mortality. Demonstrating ESR in the wild therefore requires the identification of sex-linked genetic markers (in the absence of heteromorphic sex chromosomes) followed by comparison of genotypes and phenotypes, or experimental crosses with individuals who seem sex reversed, followed by sexing of offspring after rearing under non-ESR conditions and at low mortality. In this issue, Alho et al. (2010) investigate the role of ESR in the common frog (Rana temporaria) and a population that has a distorted adult sex ratio. They developed new sex-linked microsatellite markers and tested wild-caught male and female adults for potential mismatches between phenotype and genotype. They found a significant proportion of phenotypic males with a female genotype. This suggests environmental masculinization, here with a prevalence of 9%. The authors then tested whether XX males naturally reproduce with XX females. They collected egg clutches and found that some had indeed a primary sex ratio of 100% daughters. Other clutches seemed to result from multi-male fertilizations of which at least one male had the female genotype. These results suggest that sex-reversed individuals affect the sex ratio in the following generation. But how relevant is ESR if its prevalence is rather low, and what are the implications of successful reproduction of sex-reversed individuals in the wild?

Forest Transition in Madagascar's Highlands: Initial Evidence and Implications

Madagascar is renowned for the loss of the forested habitat of lemurs and other species endemic to the island. Less well known is that in the highlands, a region often described as an environmental "basket-case" of fire-degraded, eroded grasslands, woody cover has been increasing for decades. Using information derived from publically available high- and medium-resolution satellites, this study characterizes tree cover dynamics in the highlands of Madagascar over the past two decades. Our results reveal heterogeneous patterns of increased tree cover on smallholder farms and village lands, spurred by a mix of endogenous and exogenous forces. The new trees play important roles in rural livelihoods, providing renewable supplies of firewood, charcoal, timber and other products and services, as well as defensible claims to land tenure in the context of a decline in the use of hillside commons for grazing. This study documents this nascent forest transition through Land Change Science techniques, and provides a prologue to political ecological analysis by setting these changes in their social and environmental context and interrogating the costs and benefits of the shift in rural livelihood strategies.