The future of longevity: background and perspectives

In many developed countries, including Switzerland, the ongoing increase in life expectancy is driven by the mortality decline among older persons. This has important consequences for both the provision of health care and the management of pension funds. In this context, the Swiss Federal Office of Statistics mandated a small group of experts to provide a critical review on the future evolution of mortality in developed countries. The report starts with an analysis of the past trends in life expectancy. Longevity is defined here as the duration (or the length) of life as observed in population or in individuals. The oldest and still most used indicators of longevity are life expectancy at birth (LE0) at a population level, and maximum life span (MLS) at the individual level (page 9) and in healthy life expectancy (page 19). A discussion on the future evolution of mortality and health is then presented (page 27). A set of recommendations is finally proposed (page 39).

Life expectancy with and without disability

Average life expectancy reached 78.8 years in Europe in 2002 (WHO 2003); most Europeans can, therefore, now anticipate living well past 75 years of age. Projections in industrialized nations suggest a continuing mortality decline in the next decades 1 while birth rates will probably continue to decline, resulting in further ageing of these nations. As those aged 80 years and over are the fastest expanding segment of the older population, concerns are growing about a potential dramatic increase in the number of disabled persons. The ageing of the population and the related increase in chronic disease burden have already had major impacts on most Western health-care systems, and will probably further affect these systems in the future as the baby-boom generation becomes older. For instance, in Switzerland, it is estimated that costs due to long-term care could more than double by 2030, from 6.5 to 15.3 billion SFr.2 Similar trends are expected in most European countries. As a consequence, postponement of the onset of disability, with a compression of functional dependency into a shorter period towards the end of life, is becoming a major goal. To successfully achieve this goal and improve the control of growing health and social care expenditures, various strategies of health promotion and disease prevention are developed and tested. Although several of these experiences had some effects on functional decline and institutional placement, they have not been shown to be cost-effective. Additional strategies are, therefore, needed to prevent or delay the onset of disability in older persons, reduce functional impairment, and face the challenge of an increasing disabled elderly population.

Birth records from Swiss married couples analyzed over of the past 35 years reveal an aging of first-time mothers by 5.1 years while the interpregnancy interval has shortened

RésuméIntroduction : Le travail de thèse est un article publié dans le journal « Fertility & Sterility » s'intitulant « Birth records from Swiss married couples analyzed over the past 35 years reveal an aging of first-time mothers by 5.1 years while the interpregnancy interval has shortened ».Méthodes : Les données concernant l'âge auquel les femmes mariées donnaient naissance ont été obtenues de l'Office fédéral de la statistique. Nous avons examiné la période allant de 1969 à 2006. Cet intervalle de temps choisi nous a permis de prendre en considération un total de 2'716'370 naissances. L'âge moyen des parturientes à la naissance de leur 1er, 2ème et 3ème enfant a été calculé pour chaque année à l'aide du logiciel Excel. Grâce à ces données on a pu obtenir les intervalles inter-gestationnels théoriques entre le 1er et 2ème enfant, ainsi qu'entre le 2ème et 3ème enfant.Résultats : Nous pouvons constater que l'intervalle inter-gestationnel théorique entre la première et la deuxième grossesse était de 23.2 mois en 1969 et passait à 13.0 mois en 2006. L'intervalle compris entre la deuxième et la troisième grossesse passait de 22.4 mois en 1969 à 7.9 mois en 2006. Notre analyse suggère donc que c'est le facteur social qui exerce un effet plus important que le facteur biologique sur les intervalles inter-gestationnels, car ces intervalles diminuaient malgré l'augmentation de l'âge des mères à la naissance.

Prevalence at Birth of Cleft Lip With or Without Cleft Palate: Data From the International Perinatal Database of Typical Oral Clefts (IPDTOC).

As part of a collaborative project on the epidemiology of craniofacial anomalies, funded by the National Institutes for Dental and Craniofacial Research and channeled through the Human Genetics Programme of the World Health Organization, the International Perinatal Database of Typical Orofacial Clefts (IPDTOC) was established in 2003. IPDTOC is collecting case-by-case information on cleft lip with or without cleft palate and on cleft palate alone from birth defects registries contributing to at least one of three collaborative organizations: European Surveillance Systems of Congenital Anomalies (EUROCAT) in Europe, National Birth Defects Prevention Network (NBDPN) in the United States, and International Clearinghouse for Birth Defects Surveillance and Research (ICBDSR) worldwide. Analysis of the collected information is performed centrally at the ICBDSR Centre in Rome, Italy, to maximize the comparability of results. The present paper, the first of a series, reports data on the prevalence of cleft lip with or without cleft palate from 54 registries in 30 countries over at least 1 complete year during the period 2000 to 2005. Thus, the denominator comprises more than 7.5 million births. A total of 7704 cases of cleft lip with or without cleft palate (7141 livebirths, 237 stillbirths, 301 terminations of pregnancy, and 25 with pregnancy outcome unknown) were available. The overall prevalence of cleft lip with or without cleft palate was 9.92 per 10,000. The prevalence of cleft lip was 3.28 per 10,000, and that of cleft lip and palate was 6.64 per 10,000. There were 5918 cases (76.8%) that were isolated, 1224 (15.9%) had malformations in other systems, and 562 (7.3%) occurred as part of recognized syndromes. Cases with greater dysmorphological severity of cleft lip with or without cleft palate were more likely to include malformations of other systems.

Authors' response to 'Limitless longevity': the contribution of rectangularization to the secular increase in life expectancy: an empirical study.

Related article : Letter to the Editor: Karin Modig, Sven Drefahl, and Anders Ahlbon.Limitless longevity: Comment on the Contribution of rectangularization to the secular increase of life expectancy

Birth records from Swiss married couples analyzed over the past 35 years reveal an aging of first-time mothers by 5.1 years while the interpregnancy interval has shortened.

Although the general trend for delaying childbearing is generally viewed as causing infertility, its consequences on the interpregnancy interval have been unknown. A study of birth records for Swiss married women from 1969 to 2006 revealed that the woman's age at first birth has increased from 25.0 to 30.1 years, whereas calculated theoretical interpregnancy intervals after the first and second child decreased from 23.2 to 13 and from 22.4 to 7.9 months, respectively.

Effect of antenatal corticosteroids on fetal growth and gestational age at birth.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effect of multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids on neonatal size, controlling for gestational age at birth and other confounders, and to determine whether there was a dose-response relationship between number of courses of antenatal corticosteroids and neonatal size. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of the Multiple Courses of Antenatal Corticosteroids for Preterm Birth Study, a double-blind randomized controlled trial of single compared with multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids in women at risk for preterm birth and in which fetuses administered multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids weighed less, were shorter, and had smaller head circumferences at birth. All women (n=1,858) and children (n=2,304) enrolled in the Multiple Courses of Antenatal Corticosteroids for Preterm Birth Study were included in the current analysis. Multiple linear regression analyses were undertaken. RESULTS: Compared with placebo, neonates in the antenatal corticosteroids group were born earlier (estimated difference and confidence interval [CI]: -0.428 weeks, CI -0.10264 to -0.75336; P=.01). Controlling for gestational age at birth and confounding factors, multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids were associated with a decrease in birth weight (-33.50 g, CI -66.27120 to -0.72880; P=.045), length (-0.339 cm, CI -0.6212 to -0.05676]; P=.019), and head circumference (-0.296 cm, -0.45672 to -0.13528; P<.001). For each additional course of antenatal corticosteroids, there was a trend toward an incremental decrease in birth weight, length, and head circumference. CONCLUSION: Fetuses exposed to multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids were smaller at birth. The reduction in size was partially attributed to being born at an earlier gestational age but also was attributed to decreased fetal growth. Finally, a dose-response relationship exists between the number of corticosteroid courses and a decrease in fetal growth. The long-term effect of these findings is unknown. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, www.clinicaltrials.gov, NCT00187382. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: II.

Multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids for preterm birth (MACS): a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: One course of antenatal corticosteroids reduces the risk of respiratory distress syndrome and neonatal death. Weekly doses given to women who remain undelivered after a single course may have benefits (less respiratory morbidity) or cause harm (reduced growth in utero). We aimed to find out whether multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids would reduce neonatal morbidity and mortality without adversely affecting fetal growth. METHODS: 1858 women at 25-32 weeks' gestation who remained undelivered 14-21 days after an initial course of antenatal corticosteroids and continued to be at high risk of preterm birth were randomly assigned to multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids (n=937) or placebo (n=921), every 14 days until week 33 or delivery, whichever came first. The primary outcome was a composite of perinatal or neonatal mortality, severe respiratory distress syndrome, intraventricular haemorrhage (grade III or IV), periventricular leucomalacia, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, or necrotising enterocolitis. Analysis was by intention to treat. All patients and caregivers were unaware of the treatment given. This trial is registered as number ISRCTN2654148. FINDINGS: Infants exposed to multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids had similar morbidity and mortality to those exposed to placebo (150 [12.9%] vs 143 [12.5%]). Those receiving multiple doses of corticosteroids also weighed less at birth than those exposed to placebo (2216 g vs 2330 g, p=0.0026), were shorter (44.5 cm vs 45.4 cm, p<0.001), and had a smaller head circumference (31.1 cm vs 31.7 cm, p<0.001). INTERPRETATION: Multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids, every 14 days, do not improve preterm-birth outcomes, and are associated with a decreased weight, length, and head circumference at birth. Therefore, this treatment schedule is not recommended. FUNDING: Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Birth and expression evolution of mammalian microRNA genes.

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are major post-transcriptional regulators of gene expression, yet their origins and functional evolution in mammals remain little understood due to the lack of appropriate comparative data. Using RNA sequencing, we have generated extensive and comparable miRNA data for five organs in six species that represent all main mammalian lineages and birds (the evolutionary outgroup) with the aim to unravel the evolution of mammalian miRNAs. Our analyses reveal an overall expansion of miRNA repertoires in mammals, with threefold accelerated birth rates of miRNA families in placentals and marsupials, facilitated by the de novo emergence of miRNAs in host gene introns. Generally, our analyses suggest a high rate of miRNA family turnover in mammals with many newly emerged miRNA families being lost soon after their formation. Selectively preserved mammalian miRNA families gradually evolved higher expression levels, as well as altered mature sequences and target gene repertoires, and were apparently mainly recruited to exert regulatory functions in nervous tissues. However, miRNAs that originated on the X chromosome evolved high expression levels and potentially diverse functions during spermatogenesis, including meiosis, through selectively driven duplication-divergence processes. Overall, our study thus provides detailed insights into the birth and evolution of mammalian miRNA genes and the associated selective forces.

Senescence in cell oxidative status in two bird species with contrasting life expectancy.

Oxidative stress occurs when the production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) by an organism exceeds its capacity to mitigate the damaging effects of the ROS. Consequently, oxidative stress hypotheses of ageing argue that a decline in fecundity and an increase in the likelihood of death with advancing age reported at the organism level are driven by gradual disruption of the oxidative balance at the cellular level. Here, we measured erythrocyte resistance to oxidative stress in the same individuals over several years in two free-living bird species with contrasting life expectancy, the great tit (known maximum life expectancy is 15.4 years) and the Alpine swift (26 years). In both species, we found evidence for senescence in cell resistance to oxidative stress, with patterns of senescence becoming apparent as subjects get older. In the Alpine swift, there was also evidence for positive selection on cell resistance to oxidative stress, the more resistant subjects being longer lived. The present findings of inter-individual selection and intra-individual deterioration in cell oxidative status at old age in free-living animals support a role for oxidative stress in the ageing of wild animals.

Birth and adaptive evolution of a hominoid gene that supports high neurotransmitter flux.

The enzyme glutamate dehydrogenase (GDH) is important for recycling the chief excitatory neurotransmitter, glutamate, during neurotransmission. Human GDH exists in housekeeping and brain-specific isotypes encoded by the genes GLUD1 and GLUD2, respectively. Here we show that GLUD2 originated by retroposition from GLUD1 in the hominoid ancestor less than 23 million years ago. The amino acid changes responsible for the unique brain-specific properties of the enzyme derived from GLUD2 occurred during a period of positive selection after the duplication event.

Evaluation de l'espérance de vie chez les personnes agées [Assessment of life expectancy in older people].

Evaluation of the remaining life expectancy in elderly persons plays an important role in their care, most importantly when treatments are associated with severe side effects or when they reduce the quality of life. Prognostic scores, incorporating the functional status in addition to age and comorbidities, enable evaluation of the mortality risk during different periods of time. Despite some limitations, these scores are useful in establishing individualized treatment plans.