A non-linear Bayesian approach for upscaling local-scale hydraulic conductivity measurements based on local- and regional-scale geophysical data

Significant progress has been made with regard to the quantitative integration of geophysical and hydrological data at the local scale. However, extending the corresponding approaches to the regional scale represents a major, and as-of-yet largely unresolved, challenge. To address this problem, we have developed an upscaling procedure based on a Bayesian sequential simulation approach. This method is then applied to the stochastic integration of low-resolution, regional-scale electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data in combination with high-resolution, local-scale downhole measurements of the hydraulic and electrical conductivities. Finally, the overall viability of this upscaling approach is tested and verified by performing and comparing flow and transport simulation through the original and the upscaled hydraulic conductivity fields. Our results indicate that the proposed procedure does indeed allow for obtaining remarkably faithful estimates of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity structure and correspondingly reliable predictions of the transport characteristics over relatively long distances.

Use of variability in national and regional data to estimate the prevalence of lymphangioleiomyomatosis.

Background: Understanding the true prevalence of lymphangioleiomyomatosis (LAM) is important in estimating disease burden and targeting specific interventions. As with all rare diseases, obtaining reliable epidemiological data is difficult and requires innovative approaches.Aim: To determine the prevalence and incidence of LAM using data from patient organizations in seven countries, and to use the extent to which the prevalence of LAM varies regionally and nationally to determine whether prevalence estimates are related to health-care provision.Methods: Numbers of women with LAM were obtained from patient groups and national databases from seven countries (n = 1001). Prevalence was calculated for regions within countries using female population figures from census data. Incidence estimates were calculated for the USA, UK and Switzerland. Regional variation in prevalence and changes in incidence over time were analysed using Poisson regression and linear regression.Results: Prevalence of LAM in the seven countries ranged from 3.4 to 7.8/million women with significant variation, both between countries and between states in the USA. This variation did not relate to the number of pulmonary specialists in the region nor the percentage of population with health insurance, but suggests a large number of patients remain undiagnosed. The incidence of LAM from 2004 to 2008 ranged from 0.23 to 0.31/million women/per year in the USA, UK and Switzerland.Conclusions: Using this method, we have found that the prevalence of LAM is higher than that previously recorded and that many patients with LAM are undiagnosed.

Politicians in the Media: Determinants of Legislators' Presence and Prominence in Swiss Newspapers

In times of increasing "mediatization" of politics, when voters and their elected representatives primarily communicate through the media, the question of who gets into the news and why becomes of the utmost importance. This article examines the determinants of Swiss legislators' presence and prominence in the print media by focusing on three competing approaches drawn from communication studies. The first approach regards the media as a "mirror" of political reality and argues that the media focus on the most active deputies in parliament. Second, news values theory predicts that "authoritative" politicians in leadership positions get the most media coverage. Third, theories of "news bias" hold that the media privilege legislators who are in line with their own editorial interests. Overall, the statistical analyses show an important leadership effect and provide strong support for the second explanation. While deputies in official functions get the most extensive news coverage, media access can also be won by parliamentary activity. The least support is shown for the news bias theory, although some newspapers try to localize parliamentary news coverage by focusing on deputies from their own media market.

Integration of local-scale hydrological and regional-scale geophysical based on a nonlinear Bayesian sequential simulation approach

Significant progress has been made with regard to the quantitative integration of geophysical and hydrological data at the local scale. However, extending the corresponding approaches to the regional scale represents a major, and as-of-yet largely unresolved, challenge. To address this problem, we have developed a downscaling procedure based on a non-linear Bayesian sequential simulation approach. The basic objective of this algorithm is to estimate the value of the sparsely sampled hydraulic conductivity at non-sampled locations based on its relation to the electrical conductivity, which is available throughout the model space. The in situ relationship between the hydraulic and electrical conductivities is described through a non-parametric multivariate kernel density function. This method is then applied to the stochastic integration of low-resolution, re- gional-scale electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data in combination with high-resolution, local-scale downhole measurements of the hydraulic and electrical conductivities. Finally, the overall viability of this downscaling approach is tested and verified by performing and comparing flow and transport simulation through the original and the downscaled hydraulic conductivity fields. Our results indicate that the proposed procedure does indeed allow for obtaining remarkably faithful estimates of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity structure and correspondingly reliable predictions of the transport characteristics over relatively long distances.

Molecular epidemiology of predominant clones and sporadic strains of methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus in Switzerland and comparison with European epidemic clones.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the molecular epidemiology and risk factors of predominant clones and sporadic strains of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in Swiss hospitals and to compare them with European strains of epidemic clones. MATERIAL AND METHODS: One-year national survey of MRSA cases. Analysis of epidemiological and molecular typing data (PFGE) of MRSA strains. RESULTS: In 1997, 385 cases of MRSA were recorded in the five Swiss university hospitals and in 47 community hospitals. Half of the cases were found in Geneva hospitals where MRSA was already known to be endemic. Molecular typing of 288 isolates (one per case) showed that 186 (65%) belong to four predominant clones, three of which were mostly present in Geneva hospitals. In contrast, the fourth clone (85 cases) was found in 23 hospitals (in one to 16 cases per hospital). The remaining 35% of the strains were clustered into 62 pulsed field gel electrophoresis types. They accounted for one to five patients per hospital and were defined as sporadic. Multivariate analysis revealed no independent risk factors for harboring a predominant versus a sporadic strain, except that transfer from a foreign hospital increases the risk of harboring a sporadic strain (OR, 42; 95% CI, 5-360). CONCLUSION: While cases with predominant clones were due to the local spread of these clones, most sporadic cases appear to be due to the continuous introduction of new strains into the country. With the exception of a transfer from a hospital outside Switzerland, no difference in the clinical or epidemiological characteristics was observed between patients harboring a predominant clone and those with a sporadic strain.

Regional-scale integration of multi-scale hydrological and geophysical data using a two-step Bayesian sequential simulation approach

Significant progress has been made with regard to the quantitative integration of geophysical and hydrological data at the local scale for the purpose of improving predictions of groundwater flow and solute transport. However, extending corresponding approaches to the regional scale still represents one of the major challenges in the domain of hydrogeophysics. To address this problem, we have developed a regional-scale data integration methodology based on a two-step Bayesian sequential simulation approach. Our objective is to generate high-resolution stochastic realizations of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity field in the common case where there exist spatially exhaustive but poorly resolved measurements of a related geophysical parameter, as well as highly resolved but spatially sparse collocated measurements of this geophysical parameter and the hydraulic conductivity. To integrate this multi-scale, multi-parameter database, we first link the low- and high-resolution geophysical data via a stochastic downscaling procedure. This is followed by relating the downscaled geophysical data to the high-resolution hydraulic conductivity distribution. After outlining the general methodology of the approach, we demonstrate its application to a realistic synthetic example where we consider as data high-resolution measurements of the hydraulic and electrical conductivities at a small number of borehole locations, as well as spatially exhaustive, low-resolution estimates of the electrical conductivity obtained from surface-based electrical resistivity tomography. The different stochastic realizations of the hydraulic conductivity field obtained using our procedure are validated by comparing their solute transport behaviour with that of the underlying ?true? hydraulic conductivity field. We find that, even in the presence of strong subsurface heterogeneity, our proposed procedure allows for the generation of faithful representations of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity structure and reliable predictions of solute transport over long, regional-scale distances.

First imaging results of an intraindividual comparison of (11)C-acetate and (18)F-fluorocholine PET/CT in patients with prostate cancer at early biochemical first or second relapse after prostatectomy or radiotherapy.

PURPOSE: (18)F-Fluorocholine (FCH) and (11)C-acetate (ACE) PET are widely used for detection of recurrent prostate cancer (PC). We present the first results of a comparative, prospective PET/CT study of both tracers evaluated in the same patients presenting with recurrence and low PSA to compare the diagnostic information provided by the two tracers. METHODS: The study group comprised 23 patients studied for a rising PSA level after radical prostatectomy (RP, 7 patients, PSA ≤ 3 ng/ml), curative radiotherapy (RT, 7 patients, PSA ≤ 5 ng/ml) or RP and salvage RT (9 patients, PSA ≤ 5 ng/ml). Both FCH and ACE PET/CT scans were performed in a random sequence a median of 4 days (range 0 to 11 days) apart. FCH PET/CT was started at injection (307 ± 16 MBq) with a 10-min dynamic acquisition of the prostate bed, followed by a whole-body PET scan and late (45 min) imaging of the pelvis. ACE PET/CT was performed as a double whole-body PET scan starting 5 and 22 min after injection (994 ± 72 MBq), and a late view (45 min) of the prostate bed. PET/CT scans were blindly reviewed by two independent pairs of two experienced nuclear medicine physicians, discordant subgroup results being discussed to reach a consensus for positive, negative end equivocal results. RESULTS: PET results were concordant in 88 out of 92 local, regional and distant findings (Cohen's kappa 0.929). In particular, results were concordant in all patients concerning local status, bone metastases and distant findings. Lymph-node results were concordant in 19 patients and different in 4 patients. On a per-patient basis results were concordant in 22 of 23 patients (14 positive, 5 negative and 3 equivocal). In only one patient was ACE PET/CT positive for nodal metastases while FCH PET/CT was overall negative; interestingly, the ACE-positive and FCH-negative lymph nodes became positive in a second FCH PET/CT scan performed a few months later. CONCLUSION: Overall, ACE and FCH PET/CT showed excellent concordance, on both a per-lesion and a per-patient basis, suggesting that both tracers perform equally for recurrent prostate cancer staging.

Micromeasurement of total and regional CO2 productions in the one-day-old chick embryo.

A conductometric micromethod combined with image analysis system has been developed allowing to determine the CO2 production within 'two-dimensional' tissues, i.e., flat and thin cell layers or epithelial sheets. The preparation was mounted into an airtight chamber separated in two compartments by a thin silicone membrane permeable to gases. The lower compartment contained the nutritive medium and the preparation. The upper compartment and a conductivity measuring capillary connected in series were perfused with a solution of Ba(OH)2. The CO2 produced by the tissue precipitated as BaCO3 and the resulting decrease of electrical conductivity was linearly related to the total CO2 production. In addition, the pattern of CO2 production was directly observable as the BaCO3 crystals formed upon the silicone membrane over the regions which produced CO2. The spatial distribution of the crystals was quantified by video image processing and the regional CO2 production evaluated with a spatial resolution of 100 microns. This new microtechnique was originally developed to study the CO2 production in the early chick blastoderm which is a disc 1-5 cells thick. At the stage of young neurula the CO2 production was found to be 235 +/- 37 nmol.h-1 (mean +/- SD; n = 10) per blastoderm and large variations of local CO2 production were detected from one region to another (from 0.6 to 6.5 nmol.h-1.mm-2). These results indicate a high metabolic and functional differentiation of cells within the blastoderm. The possible applications and improvements of such a microtechnique are discussed.

ESCMID* guideline for the diagnosis and management of Candida diseases 2012: developing European guidelines in clinical microbiology and infectious diseases.

The process to develop a guideline in a European setting remains a challenge. The ESCMID Fungal Infection Study Group (EFISG) successfully achieved this endeavour. After two face-to-face meetings, numerous telephone conferences, and email correspondence, an ESCMID task force (basically composed of members of the Society's Fungal Infection Study Group, EFISG) finalized the ESCMID diagnostic and management/therapeutic guideline for Candida diseases. By appreciating various patient populations at risk for Candida diseases, four subgroups were predefined, mainly ICU patients, paediatric, HIV/AIDS and patients with malignancies including haematopoietic stem cell transplantation. Besides treatment recommendations, the ESCMID guidelines provide guidance for diagnostic procedures. For the guidelines, questions were formulated to phrase the intention of a given recommendation, for example, outcome. The recommendation was the clinical intervention, which was graded by a score of A-D for the 'Strength of a recommendation'. The 'level of evidence' received a score of I-III. The author panel was approved by ESCMID, European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer, European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation, European Society of Intensive Care Medicine and the European Confederation of Medical Mycology. The guidelines followed the framework of GRADE and Appraisal of Guidelines, Research, and Evaluation. The drafted guideline was presented at ECCMID 2011 and points of discussion occurring during that meeting were incorporated into the manuscripts. These ESCMID guidelines for the diagnosis and management of Candida diseases provide guidance for clinicians in their daily decision-making process.

Contextual determinants of alcohol consumption changes and preventive alcohol policies: a 12-country European study in progress.

Beginning with France in the 1950s, alcohol consumption has decreased in Southern European countries with few or no preventive alcohol policy measures being implemented, while alcohol consumption has been increasing in Northern European countries where historically more restrictive alcohol control policies were in place, even though more recently they were loosened. At the same time, Central and Eastern Europe have shown an intermediate behavior. We propose that country-specific changes in alcohol consumption between 1960 and 2008 are explained by a combination of a number of factors: (1) preventive alcohol policies and (2) social, cultural, economic, and demographic determinants. This article describes the methodology of a research study designed to understand the complex interactions that have occurred throughout Europe over the past five decades. These include changes in alcohol consumption, drinking patterns and alcohol-related harm, and the actual determinants of such changes.

Molecular detection and identification of zygomycetes species from paraffin-embedded tissues in a murine model of disseminated zygomycosis: a collaborative European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ESCMID) Fungal Infection Study Group (EFISG) evaluation.

The present study was performed to assess the interlaboratory reproducibility of the molecular detection and identification of species of Zygomycetes from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded kidney and brain tissues obtained from experimentally infected mice. Animals were infected with one of five species (Rhizopus oryzae, Rhizopus microsporus, Lichtheimia corymbifera, Rhizomucor pusillus, and Mucor circinelloides). Samples with 1, 10, or 30 slide cuts of the tissues were prepared from each paraffin block, the sample identities were blinded for analysis, and the samples were mailed to each of seven laboratories for the assessment of sensitivity. A protocol describing the extraction method and the PCR amplification procedure was provided. The internal transcribed spacer 1 (ITS1) region was amplified by PCR with the fungal universal primers ITS1 and ITS2 and sequenced. As negative results were obtained for 93% of the tissue specimens infected by M. circinelloides, the data for this species were excluded from the analysis. Positive PCR results were obtained for 93% (52/56), 89% (50/56), and 27% (15/56) of the samples with 30, 10, and 1 slide cuts, respectively. There were minor differences, depending on the organ tissue, fungal species, and laboratory. Correct species identification was possible for 100% (30 cuts), 98% (10 cuts), and 93% (1 cut) of the cases. With the protocol used in the present study, the interlaboratory reproducibility of ITS sequencing for the identification of major Zygomycetes species from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissues can reach 100%, when enough material is available.

The value of selected in vitro and in silico methods to predict acute oral toxicity in a regulatory context: results from the European Project ACuteTox.

ACuteTox is a project within the 6th European Framework Programme which had as one of its goals to develop, optimise and prevalidate a non-animal testing strategy for predicting human acute oral toxicity. In its last 6 months, a challenging exercise was conducted to assess the predictive capacity of the developed testing strategies and final identification of the most promising ones. Thirty-two chemicals were tested blind in the battery of in vitro and in silico methods selected during the first phase of the project. This paper describes the classification approaches studied: single step procedures and two step tiered testing strategies. In summary, four in vitro testing strategies were proposed as best performing in terms of predictive capacity with respect to the European acute oral toxicity classification. In addition, a heuristic testing strategy is suggested that combines the prediction results gained from the neutral red uptake assay performed in 3T3 cells, with information on neurotoxicity alerts identified by the primary rat brain aggregates test method. Octanol-water partition coefficients and in silico prediction of intestinal absorption and blood-brain barrier passage are also considered. This approach allows to reduce the number of chemicals wrongly predicted as not classified (LD50>2000 mg/kg b.w.).

Consensus summary statement of the International Multidisciplinary Consensus Conference on Multimodality Monitoring in Neurocritical Care : A statement for healthcare professionals from the Neurocritical Care Society and the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine.

Neurocritical care depends, in part, on careful patient monitoring but as yet there are little data on what processes are the most important to monitor, how these should be monitored, and whether monitoring these processes is cost-effective and impacts outcome. At the same time, bioinformatics is a rapidly emerging field in critical care but as yet there is little agreement or standardization on what information is important and how it should be displayed and analyzed. The Neurocritical Care Society in collaboration with the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine, the Society for Critical Care Medicine, and the Latin America Brain Injury Consortium organized an international, multidisciplinary consensus conference to begin to address these needs. International experts from neurosurgery, neurocritical care, neurology, critical care, neuroanesthesiology, nursing, pharmacy, and informatics were recruited on the basis of their research, publication record, and expertise. They undertook a systematic literature review to develop recommendations about specific topics on physiologic processes important to the care of patients with disorders that require neurocritical care. This review does not make recommendations about treatment, imaging, and intraoperative monitoring. A multidisciplinary jury, selected for their expertise in clinical investigation and development of practice guidelines, guided this process. The GRADE system was used to develop recommendations based on literature review, discussion, integrating the literature with the participants' collective experience, and critical review by an impartial jury. Emphasis was placed on the principle that recommendations should be based on both data quality and on trade-offs and translation into clinical practice. Strong consideration was given to providing pragmatic guidance and recommendations for bedside neuromonitoring, even in the absence of high quality data.

Strategies to promote translational research within the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) Head and Neck Cancer Group: a report from the Translational Research Subcommittee.

Head and neck squamous cell cancer (HNSCC) is the sixth leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. These tumors are commonly diagnosed at advanced stages and mortality rates remain high. Even cured patients suffer the consequences of aggressive treatment that includes surgery, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy. In the past, in clinical trials, HNSCC was considered as a single disease entity. Advances in molecular biology with the development of genomic and proteomic approaches have demonstrated distinct prognostic HNSCC patient subsets beyond those defined by traditional clinical-pathological factors such as tumor subsite and stage [Cho W (ed). An Omics Perspective on Cancer Research. New York/Berlin: Springer 2010]. Validation of these biomarkers in large prospective clinical trials is required before their clinical implementation. To promote this research, the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) Head and Neck Cancer Program will develop the following strategies-(i) biobanking: prospective tissue collection from uniformly treated patients in the setting of clinical trials; (ii) a group of physicians, physician-scientists, and EORTC Headquarters staff devoted to patient-oriented head and neck cancer research; (iii) a collaboration between the basic scientists of the Translational Research Division interested in head and neck cancer research and the physicians of the Head and Neck Cancer Group; and (iv) funding through the EORTC Grant Program and the Network Core Institutions Consortium. In the present report, we summarize our strategic plans to promote head and neck cancer research within the EORTC framework.