309 resultados para Estimadores de Kaplan-Meier

em Université de Lausanne, Switzerland


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We reviewed our surgery registry, to identify predictive risk factors for operative results, and to analyse the long-term survival outcome in octogenarians operated for primary isolated aortic valve replacement (AVR). A total of 124 consecutive octogenarians underwent open AVR from January 1990 to December 2005. Combined procedures and redo surgery were excluded. Selected variables were studied as risk factors for hospital mortality and early neurological events. A follow-up (FU; mean FU time: 77 months) was obtained (90% complete), and Kaplan-Meier plots were used to determine survival rates. The mean age was 82+/-2.2 (range: 80-90 years; 63% females). Of the group, four patients (3%) required urgent procedures, 10 (8%) had a previous myocardial infarction, six (5%) had a previous coronary angioplasty and stenting, 13 patients (10%) suffered from angina and 59 (48%) were in the New York Heart Association (NYHA) class III-IV. We identified 114 (92%) degenerative stenosis, six (5%) post-rheumatic stenosis and four (3%) active endocarditis. The predicted mortality calculated by logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) was 12.6+/-5.7%, and the observed hospital mortality was 5.6%. Causes of death included severe cardiac failure (four patients), multi-organ failure (two) and sepsis (one). Complications were transitory neurological events in three patients (2%), short-term haemodialysis in three (2%), atrial fibrillation in 60 (48%) and six patients were re-operated for bleeding. Atrio-ventricular block, myocardial infarction or permanent stroke was not detected. The age at surgery and the postoperative renal failure were predictors for hospital mortality (p value <0.05), whereas we did not find predictors for neurological events. The mean FU time was 77 months (6.5 years) and the mean age of surviving patients was 87+/-4 years (81-95 years). The actuarial survival estimates at 5 and 10 years were 88% and 50%, respectively. Our experience shows good short-term results after primary isolated standard AVR in patients more than 80 years of age. The FU suggests that aortic valve surgery in octogenarians guarantees satisfactory long-term survival rates and a good quality of life, free from cardiac re-operations. In the era of catheter-based aortic valve implantation, open-heart surgery for AVR remains the standard of care for healthy octogenarians.

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AIM: To confirm the accuracy of sentinel node biopsy (SNB) procedure and its morbidity, and to investigate predictive factors for SN status and prognostic factors for disease-free survival (DFS) and disease-specific survival (DSS). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between October 1997 and December 2004, 327 consecutive patients in one centre with clinically node-negative primary skin melanoma underwent an SNB by the triple technique, i.e. lymphoscintigraphy, blue-dye and gamma-probe. Multivariate logistic regression analyses as well as the Kaplan-Meier were performed. RESULTS: Twenty-three percent of the patients had at least one metastatic SN, which was significantly associated with Breslow thickness (p<0.001). The success rate of SNB was 99.1% and its morbidity was 7.6%. With a median follow-up of 33 months, the 5-year DFS/DSS were 43%/49% for patients with positive SN and 83.5%/87.4% for patients with negative SN, respectively. The false-negative rate of SNB was 8.6% and sensitivity 91.4%. On multivariate analysis, DFS was significantly worsened by Breslow thickness (RR=5.6, p<0.001), positive SN (RR=5.0, p<0.001) and male sex (RR=2.9, p=0.001). The presence of a metastatic SN (RR=8.4, p<0.001), male sex (RR=6.1, p<0.001), Breslow thickness (RR=3.2, p=0.013) and ulceration (RR=2.6, p=0.015) were significantly associated with a poorer DSS. CONCLUSION: SNB is a reliable procedure with high sensitivity (91.4%) and low morbidity. Breslow thickness was the only statistically significant parameter predictive of SN status. DFS was worsened in decreasing order by Breslow thickness, metastatic SN and male gender. Similarly DSS was significantly worsened by a metastatic SN, male gender, Breslow thickness and ulceration. These data reinforce the SN status as a powerful staging procedure

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Throughout the animal kingdom, steroid hormones have been implicated in the defense against microbial infection, but how these systemic signals control immunity is unclear. Here, we show that the steroid hormone ecdysone controls the expression of the pattern recognition receptor PGRP-LC in Drosophila, thereby tightly regulating innate immune recognition and defense against bacterial infection. We identify a group of steroid-regulated transcription factors as well as two GATA transcription factors that act as repressors and activators of the immune response and are required for the proper hormonal control of PGRP-LC expression. Together, our results demonstrate that Drosophila use complex mechanisms to modulate innate immune responses, and identify a transcriptional hierarchy that integrates steroid signalling and immunity in animals.

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Introduction of potent antiretroviral combination therapy (ART) has reduced overall morbidity and mortality amongst HIV-infected adults. Some prophylactic regimes against opportunistic infections can be discontinued in patients under successful ART. (1) The influence of the availability of ART on incidence and mortality of disseminated M. avium Complex infection (MAC). (2) The safety of discontinuation of maintenance therapy against MAC in patients on ART. The Swiss HIV-Cohort Study, a prospective multicentre study of HIV-infected adults. Patients with a nadir CD4 count below 50 cells/mm3 were considered at risk for MAC and contributed to total follow-up time for calculating the incidence. Survival analysis was performed by using Kaplan Meier and Cox proportional hazards methods. Safety of discontinuation of maintenance therapy was evaluated by review of the medical notes. 398 patients were diagnosed with MAC from 1990 to 1999. 350 had a previous CD4 count below 50 cells/mm3. A total of 3208 patients had a nadir CD4 count of less than 50 cells/mm3 during the study period and contributed to a total follow-up of 6004 person-years. The incidence over the whole study period was 5.8 events per 100 person-years. In the time period of available ART the incidence of MAC was significantly reduced (1.4 versus 8.8 events per 100 person-years, p < 0.001). Being diagnosed after 1995 was the most powerful predictor of better survival (adjusted hazard ratio for death: 0.27; p < 0.001). None of 24 patients discontinuing maintenance therapy while on ART experienced recurrence of MAC during a total follow-up of 56.6 person-years (upper 95% confidence limit 5.3 per 100 person-years). Introducing ART has markedly reduced the risk of MAC for HIV-infected individuals with a history of very low CD4 counts. Survival after diagnosis of MAC has improved after ART became available. In patients responding to ART, discontinuation of maintenance therapy against M. avium may be safe.

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To compare the impact of meeting specific classification criteria [modified New York (mNY), European Spondyloarthropathy Study Group (ESSG), and Assessment of SpondyloArthritis international Society (ASAS) criteria] on anti-tumor necrosis factor (anti-TNF) drug retention, and to determine predictive factors of better drug survival. All patients fulfilling the ESSG criteria for axial spondyloarthritis (SpA) with available data on the axial ASAS and mNY criteria, and who had received at least one anti-TNF treatment were retrospectively retrieved in a single academic institution in Switzerland. Drug retention was computed using survival analysis (Kaplan-Meier), adjusted for potential confounders. Of the 137 patients classified as having axial SpA using the ESSG criteria, 112 also met the ASAS axial SpA criteria, and 77 fulfilled the mNY criteria. Drug retention rates at 12 and 24 months for the first biologic therapy were not significantly different between the diagnostic groups. Only the small ASAS non-classified axial SpA group (25 patients) showed a nonsignificant trend toward shorter drug survival. Elevated CRP level, but not the presence of bone marrow edema on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans, was associated with significantly better drug retention (OR 7.9, ICR 4-14). In this cohort, anti-TNF drug survival was independent of the classification criteria. Elevated CRP level, but not positive MRI, was associated with better drug retention.

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Objectif: La réparation de la valve mitrale constitue le traitement de choix pour restaurer ta fonction de celle-ci. Elle est actuellement reconnue pour garantir une bonne évolution à long terme. Dans le but de faciliter les décisions périopératoires, nous avons analysé nos patients afin de déterminer les facteurs de risque ayant affecté leur évolution. Méthodes: Nous avons étudié rétrospectivement 175 premiers patients consécutifs (âge moyen : 64 +/-10.4 ans ;113 hommes) qui ont subi une réparation primaire de la valve mitrale associée à toute autre intervention cardiaque entre 1986 et 1998. Les facteurs de risque influençant le taux de réopération et la survie à long terme ont été analysés de manière uni et multivariée. Résultats: La mortalité opératoire était de 3.4 % (6 décès, 0 -22 et jours post-opératoires). La mortalité tardive était de 9.1 % (16 décès, 3e-125e mois post-opératoires). Cinq patients ont dû être réopérés. L'analyse actuarielle selon Kaplan-Meier a montré une survie à 1 année de 96 +l-1 %, une survie à 5 ans de 88 +/- 3 % et une survie à 10 ans de 69 +/- 8 %. Après 1 année, la fraction de population sans réopération était de 99 %, elle était de 97 +/-2 % après 5 ans et de 88+/-6 % après 10 ans. L'analyse multivariée a montré qu' un stade NYHA III et IV résiduel ( p=0.001, RR 4.55, 95 % IC :1.85 -14.29), une mauvaise fraction d'éjection préopératoire(p=0.013, RR 1.09, 95 % IC 1.02 -1.18), ,une régurgitation mitrale d'origine fonctionnelle (p=0.018, RR 4.17, 95% IC 1.32-16.67) ainsi qu'une étiologie ischémique (p=0.049, RR 3.13, 95% IC 1.01-10.0) constituaient tous des prédicteurs indépendant de mortalité. Une régurgitation mitrale persistante au 7 e jour post-opératoire (p= 0.005, RR 4.55, 95 % IC :1.56 -20.0), un âge inférieur à 60 ans (p = 0.012, RR 8.7, 95 % IC 2.44 - 37.8) et l'absence d'anneau prothétique (p = 0.034, RR 4.76, 95 % IC 1.79-33.3) se sont tous révélés être des facteurs de risque indépendant de réopération. Conclusion: Les réparations mitrales sont accompagnées d'une excellente survie à long terme même si leur évolution peut être influencée négativement par de nombreux facteurs de risques periopératoires. Les risques de réopération sont plus élevés chez des patients jeunes présentant une régurgitation mitrale résiduelle et n'ayant pas bénéficié de la mise en place d'un anneau prothétique.

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This observational study analyzed imatinib pharmacokinetics and response in 2478 chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients. Data were obtained through centralized therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) at median treatment duration of ≥2 years. First, individual initial trough concentrations under 400mg/day imatinib starting dose were estimated. Second, their correlation (C^min(400mg)) with reported treatment response was verified. Low imatinib levels were predicted in young male patients and those receiving P-gp/CYP3A4 inducers. These patients had also lower response rates (7% lower 18-months MMR in male, 17% lower 1-year CCyR in young patients, Kaplan-Meier estimates). Time-point independent multivariate regression confirmed a correlation of individual C^min(400mg) with response and adverse events. Possibly due to confounding factors (e.g. dose modifications, patient selection bias), the relationship seemed however flatter than previously reported from prospective controlled studies. Nonetheless, these observational results strongly suggest that a subgroup of patients could benefit from early dosage optimization assisted by TDM, because of lower imatinib concentrations and lower response rates.

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INTRODUCTION: Two subcutaneous injections of adalimumab in severe acute sciatica significantly reduced the number of back operations in a short-term randomised controlled clinical trial. OBJECTIVE: To determine in a 3-year follow-up study whether the short-term benefit of adalimumab in sciatica is sustained over a longer period of time. METHODS: The primary outcome of this analysis was incident discectomy. Three years after randomisation, information on surgery could be retrieved in 56/61 patients (92%).A multivariate Cox proportional hazard models, adjusted for potential confounders, was used to determine factors predisposing to surgery. RESULTS: Twenty-three (41%) patients had back surgery within 3 years, 8/29 (28%) in the adalimumab group and 15/27 (56%) in the placebo group, p=0.04. Adalimumab injections reduced the need for back surgery by 61% (HR)=0.39 (95% CI 0.17 to 0.92). In a multivariate model, treatment with a tumour necrosis factor-α antagonist remained the strongest protective factor (HR=0.17, p=0.002). Other significant predictors of surgery were a good correlation between symptoms and MRI findings (HR=11.6, p=0.04), baseline intensity of leg pain (HR=1.3, p=0.06), intensity of back pain (HR=1.4, p=0.03) and duration of sickness leave (HR=1.01 per day, p=0.03). CONCLUSION: A short course of adalimumab in patients with severe acute sciatica significantly reduces the need for back surgery.

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BACKGROUND: Surgical correction of complete atrio-ventricular septal defect (AVSD) achieves satisfactory results with low morbidity and mortality, but may require reoperation. Our recent operative results at mid-term were followed-up. METHODS: From June 2000 to December 2007, 81 patients (Down syndrome; n=60), median age 4.0 months (range 0.7-118.6) and weight 4.7kg (range 2.2-33), underwent complete AVSD correction. Patch closure for the ventricular septal defect (VSD; n=69) and atrial septal defect (ASD; n=42) was performed with left atrio-ventricular valve (LAVV) cleft closure (n=76) and right atrio-ventricular valve (RAVV) repair (n=57). Mortality, morbidity, and indications for reoperation were retrospectively studied; the end point 'time to reoperation' was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier curves. Follow-up was complete except in two patients and spanned a median of 28 months (range 0.4-6.1 years). RESULTS: In-hospital mortality was 3.7% (n=3) and one late death occurred. Reoperation was required in 7/79 patients (8.9%) for LAVV insufficiency (n=4), for a residual ASD (n=1), for right atrio-ventricular valve insufficiency (n=1), and for subaortic stenosis (n=1). At last follow-up, no or only mild LAVV and RAVV insufficiency was present in 81.3% and 92.1% of patients, respectively, and 2/3 of patients were medication-free. Risk factors for reoperation were younger age (<3 months; p=0.001) and lower weight (<4kg; p=0.003), and a trend towards less and later reoperations in Down syndrome (p<0.2). CONCLUSIONS: Surgical correction of AVSD can be achieved with low mortality and need for reoperation, regardless of Down syndrome or not. Immediate postoperative moderate or more residual atrio-ventricular valve insufficiency will eventually require a reoperation, and could be anticipated in patients younger than 3 months and weighing <4kg.

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AIM: The clinical relevance of sentinel lymph node (SLN) analysis was evaluated prospectively and compared with other known risk factors of relapse in early stage melanoma. METHODS: Surgery was guided by lymphoscintigraphy, blue dye and gamma probe detection. SLN were analysed by haematoxylin eosin (HE) histochemistry and multimarker immunohistochemistry (IHC). Disease free survival (DFS) was evaluated with Kaplan-Meier plots according to different parameters and Cox analyses of variance. RESULTS: From 210 patients a total of 381 SLN were excised. Lymphoscintigraphy identified all excised SLN with only 2 false positive lymphatic lakes. Fifty patients (24%) had tumour positive SLN. With a mean follow-up of 31.3 months, 29 tumour recurrences were observed, 19 (38%) in 50 SLN positive and 10 (6%) in 160 SLN negative patients. Strong predictive factors for early relapse (p < 0.0005) were SLN positivity and a high Breslow index. CONCLUSION: SLN tumour positivity is an independent factor of high risk for early relapse with a higher power of discrimination than the Breslow index.

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Introduction : la Sclérose en plaques (SEP) est le prototype de désordre auto-immun du système nerveux central. Avec environ 110 malades par 100'000 habitants, la Suisse est considérée un pays à haute prévalence. Chez environ 80% des patients, la maladie débute par la forme récurrente- rémittente (RR), où des poussées aiguës s'intercalent avec des périodes de rémission. Cette phase se conclut dans son évolution naturelle généralement en une phase secondairement progressive, pendant laquelle le déficit progresse en l'absence de poussée. Sur le plan physiopathologique, deux phénomènes interagissent : l'atteinte inflammatoire démyélinisante et l'atteinte neurodégénerative. La première est { l'origine des poussées aiguës, la deuxième se manifeste cliniquement par la progression irréversible du déficit neurologique. En Suisse les immunomodulateurs ont été utilisés comme thérapies de fond pour la SEP à partir des années 1995. Leur effet sur le taux de poussées a été largement démontré, tandis que leur efficacité sur l'évolution de la maladie à long terme reste ouverte. Le moyen le plus répandu pour quantifier le niveau du handicap neurologique est la Kurtzke Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). Cette échelle évalue les troubles neurologiques en les classifiant de 0 (examen normal) à 10 (décès) avec des marches de demi-points. Notre recherche à voulu identifier des facteurs cliniques précoces { valeur prédictif sur l'évolution du déficit neurologique permanent, ainsi qu'analyser le moment d'introduction du traitement pour extraire des informations utiles { la décision thérapeutique. Méthodes : Exploitation de la base de données iMed-CHUV comptant 1150 patients SEP (dont 622 SEP RR) pour analyser rétrospectivement, dans la SEP RR, l'influence de différentes variables cliniques précoces (taux de poussées pendant les premières deux années de maladie, intervalle entre les deux premières poussées, sévérité et site anatomique de la première poussée, déficit résiduel après la première poussée) et de deux caractéristiques liées { l'instauration du traitement immunosuppresseur de fond (âge et délai d'introduction) sur l'évolution du déficit neurologique vers un score EDSS ≥4.0. Les variables ont été testées avec la méthode d'estimation de taux de survie Kaplan-Meier. Résultats: 349 patients avec SEP RR possédaient les critères nécessaires pour faire partie de l'analyse, le suivi moyen étant de 8.26 ans (SD 4.77). Un taux de poussées élevé pendant les premiers 2 ans (>1 vs ≤1) et un long intervalle entre les 2 premiers épisodes (>36 vs >12-36 vs ≤12) étaient significativement associés au risque de progression du déficit neurologique vers un score EDSS de 4.0 ou plus (log Rank P=0.016 et P=0.008 respectivement). Par contre ni le site anatomique de la première poussée ni l'âge d'introduction du traitement immunomodulateur n'avaient d'influence significative sur la progression du déficit neurologique (log rank P=0.370 et P=0.945 respectivement). Etonnamment une introduction rapide du traitement était associée à une plus forte progression du déficit neurologique (log rank P=0.032), montrant qu'une partie des patients a une évolution bénigne même en l'absence de traitement. Conclusions : L'activité inflammatoire précoce, dont le niveau peut être estimé par indices précoces comme le taux de poussées et l'intervalle entre les deux premières poussées, mais non le site de primo-manifestation prédit la progression ultérieure du déficit neurologique. Ces indices doivent être utilisés en combinaison avec les informations fournies par l'IRM pour l'individuation et le traitement précoce des patients à risque, indépendamment de leur âge. En raison des effets indésirables et des coûts élevés, les thérapies doivent cibler de façon spécifique les classes à risque, et épargner les patients avec évolution lente.

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Purpose: In this prospective randomized study efficacy and safety of two immunosuppressive regimens (Tac, MMF, Steroids vs. CsA, MMF, Steroids) after Lung Transplantation were compared. Primary objective was the incidence of bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS). Secondary objectives were incidence of acute rejection and infection, survival and adverse events. 248 patients with a complete 3 year follow-up were included in the analysis. Methods and Materials: Patients were randomized to treatment group A: Tac (0.01-0.03 mg/kg/d iv-0.05-0.3 mg/kg/d po) or B: CsA (1-3 mg/kg/d iv-2-8 mg/kg/d po). MMF dose was1-4 mg/d in both groups. No induction therapy was given. Patients were stratified for cystic fibrosis. Intention to treat analysis was performed in patients who were switched to a different immunosuppressive regimen. Results: 3 of 123 Tac patients and 41 of 125 CsA patients were switched to another immunosuppressive regimen and were analyzed as intention to treat. Three year follow-up data of the complete patient cohort were included in this final analysis. Groups showed no difference in demographic data. Kaplan Meier analysis revealed significantly less BOS in Tac treated patients (p=0.033, log rank test, pooled over strata). Cox regression showed a twice as high risk for BOS in the CsA group (factor 2.003). Incidence of acute rejection was 67.5% (Tac) and 75.2% (CsA) (p=0.583). One- and 3-year-survival-rates were not different (85.4% Tac vs. 88.8% CsA, and 80.5% Tac vs. 83.2% CsA, p=n.s.). Incidence of infections and renal failure was similar (p=n.s.). Conclusions: Tac significantly reduced the risk for BOS after 3 years in this intention to treat analysis. Both regimens have a good immunosuppressive potential and offer a similar safety profile with excellent one and three year survival rates. Acute rejection rates were similar in both groups. Incidence of infections and renal failure showed no difference.

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Percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA) is a widely accepted treatment of symptomatic coronary heart disease providing prompt and prolonged clinical, improvement in most patients. We have examined the value of this therapy in a group of 91 patients in their eighth decade treated by 133 consecutive angioplasties. Most patients had refractory or instable angor in spite of optimal pharmacotherapy. Multivessel disease was present in 67% and maintained left-ventricular function in 92% of the patients. The angiographic success rate of PTCA was 84%; technical failures occurred in 12% and adverse events in 14%. Two patients died. The rate of symptomatic restenosis was 24%. Survival and patients free of myocardial events were at 89% and 60%, respectively, estimated by Kaplan-Meier analysis. PTCA is an efficient and acceptable treatment for the elderly patient with severe and drug-resistant angina. Two years after PTCA the majority of patients was asymptomatic.