Microsatellites can be misleading: an empirical and simulation study.

It has been long recognized that highly polymorphic genetic markers can lead to underestimation of divergence between populations when migration is low. Microsatellite loci, which are characterized by extremely high mutation rates, are particularly likely to be affected. Here, we report genetic differentiation estimates in a contact zone between two chromosome races of the common shrew (Sorex araneus), based on 10 autosomal microsatellites, a newly developed Y-chromosome microsatellite, and mitochondrial DNA. These results are compared to previous data on proteins and karyotypes. Estimates of genetic differentiation based on F- and R-statistics are much lower for autosomal microsatellites than for all other genetic markers. We show by simulations that this discrepancy stems mainly from the high mutation rate of microsatellite markers for F-statistics and from deviations from a single-step mutation model for R-statistics. The sex-linked genetic markers show that all gene exchange between races is mediated by females. The absence of male-mediated gene flow most likely results from male hybrid sterility.

Explicit ruin formulas for models with dependence among risks

We show that a simple mixing idea allows one to establish a number of explicit formulas for ruin probabilities and related quantities in collective risk models with dependence among claim sizes and among claim inter-occurrence times. Examples include compound Poisson risk models with completely monotone marginal claim size distributions that are dependent according to Archimedean survival copulas as well as renewal risk models with dependent inter-occurrence times.

Adult native septic arthritis: a review of 10 years of experience and lessons for empirical antibiotic therapy.

Objectives To review the epidemiology of native septic arthritis to establish local guidelines for empirical antibiotic therapy as part of an antibiotic stewardship programme. Methods We conducted a 10 year retrospective study based on positive synovial fluid cultures and discharge diagnosis of septic arthritis in adult patients. Microbiology results and medical records were reviewed. Results Between 1999 and 2008, we identified 233 episodes of septic arthritis. The predominant causative pathogens were methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA) and streptococci (respectively, 44.6% and 14.2% of cases). Only 11 cases (4.7%) of methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) arthritis were diagnosed, among which 5 (45.5%) occurred in known carriers. For large-joint infections, amoxicillin/clavulanate or cefuroxime would have been appropriate in 84.5% of cases. MRSA and Mycobacterium tuberculosis would have been the most frequent pathogens that would not have been covered. In contrast, amoxicillin/clavulanate would have been appropriate for only 75.3% of small-joint infections (82.6% if diabetics are excluded). MRSA and Pseudomonas aeruginosa would have been the main pathogens not covered. Piperacillin/tazobactam would have been appropriate in 93.8% of cases (P < 0.01 versus amoxicillin/clavulanate). This statistically significant advantage is lost after exclusion of diabetics (P = 0.19). Conclusions Amoxicillin/clavulanate or cefuroxime would be adequate for empirical coverage of large-joint septic arthritis in our area. A broad-spectrum antibiotic would be significantly superior for small-joint infections in diabetics. Systematic coverage of MRSA is not justified, but should be considered for known carriers. These recommendations are applicable to our local setting. They might also apply to hospitals sharing the same epidemiology.

Self-deception as affective coping. An empirical perspective on philosophical issues.

In the philosophical literature, self-deception is mainly approached through the analysis of paradoxes. Yet, it is agreed that self-deception is motivated by protection from distress. In this paper, we argue, with the help of findings from cognitive neuroscience and psychology, that self-deception is a type of affective coping. First, we criticize the main solutions to the paradoxes of self-deception. We then present a new approach to self-deception. Self-deception, we argue, involves three appraisals of the distressing evidence: (a) appraisal of the strength of evidence as uncertain, (b) low coping potential and (c) negative anticipation along the lines of Damasio's somatic marker hypothesis. At the same time, desire impacts the treatment of flattering evidence via dopamine. Our main proposal is that self-deception involves emotional mechanisms provoking a preference for immediate reward despite possible long-term negative repercussions. In the last part, we use this emotional model to revisit the philosophical paradoxes.