Spatial distribution of motor units recruited during electrical stimulation of the quadriceps muscle versus the femoral nerve.

INTRODUCTION: In this study we investigated differences in the spatial recruitment of motor units (MUs) in the quadriceps when electrical stimulation is applied over the quadriceps belly versus the femoral nerve. METHODS: M-waves and mechanical twitches were evoked using over-the-quadriceps and femoral nerve stimulation of gradually increasing intensity from 22 young, healthy subjects. Spatial recruitment was investigated using recruitment curves of M-waves recorded from the vastus medialis (VM) and vastus lateralis (VL) and of twitches recorded from the quadriceps. RESULTS: At maximal stimulation intensity (Imax), no differences were found between nerve and over-the-quadriceps stimulation. At submaximal intensities, VL M-wave amplitude was higher for over-the-quadriceps stimulation at 40% Imax, and peak twitch force was greater for nerve stimulation at 60% and 80% Imax. CONCLUSIONS: For the VM, MU spatial recruitment during nerve and over-the-quadriceps stimulation of increasing intensity occurred in a similar manner, whereas significant differences were observed for the VL. Muscle Nerve, 2013.

The ghost of past species occurrence: improving species distribution models for presence-only data

1. Model-based approaches have been used increasingly in conservation biology over recent years. Species presence data used for predictive species distribution modelling are abundant in natural history collections, whereas reliable absence data are sparse, most notably for vagrant species such as butterflies and snakes. As predictive methods such as generalized linear models (GLM) require absence data, various strategies have been proposed to select pseudo-absence data. However, only a few studies exist that compare different approaches to generating these pseudo-absence data. 2. Natural history collection data are usually available for long periods of time (decades or even centuries), thus allowing historical considerations. However, this historical dimension has rarely been assessed in studies of species distribution, although there is great potential for understanding current patterns, i.e. the past is the key to the present. 3. We used GLM to model the distributions of three 'target' butterfly species, Melitaea didyma, Coenonympha tullia and Maculinea teleius, in Switzerland. We developed and compared four strategies for defining pools of pseudo-absence data and applied them to natural history collection data from the last 10, 30 and 100 years. Pools included: (i) sites without target species records; (ii) sites where butterfly species other than the target species were present; (iii) sites without butterfly species but with habitat characteristics similar to those required by the target species; and (iv) a combination of the second and third strategies. Models were evaluated and compared by the total deviance explained, the maximized Kappa and the area under the curve (AUC). 4. Among the four strategies, model performance was best for strategy 3. Contrary to expectations, strategy 2 resulted in even lower model performance compared with models with pseudo-absence data simulated totally at random (strategy 1). 5. Independent of the strategy model, performance was enhanced when sites with historical species presence data were not considered as pseudo-absence data. Therefore, the combination of strategy 3 with species records from the last 100 years achieved the highest model performance. 6. Synthesis and applications. The protection of suitable habitat for species survival or reintroduction in rapidly changing landscapes is a high priority among conservationists. Model-based approaches offer planning authorities the possibility of delimiting priority areas for species detection or habitat protection. The performance of these models can be enhanced by fitting them with pseudo-absence data relying on large archives of natural history collection species presence data rather than using randomly sampled pseudo-absence data.

Species distribution models for conservation-oriented studies in Switzerland : filling data and tools gaps

SUMMARYSpecies distribution models (SDMs) represent nowadays an essential tool in the research fields of ecology and conservation biology. By combining observations of species occurrence or abundance with information on the environmental characteristic of the observation sites, they can provide information on the ecology of species, predict their distributions across the landscape or extrapolate them to other spatial or time frames. The advent of SDMs, supported by geographic information systems (GIS), new developments in statistical models and constantly increasing computational capacities, has revolutionized the way ecologists can comprehend species distributions in their environment. SDMs have brought the tool that allows describing species realized niches across a multivariate environmental space and predict their spatial distribution. Predictions, in the form of probabilistic maps showing the potential distribution of the species, are an irreplaceable mean to inform every single unit of a territory about its biodiversity potential. SDMs and the corresponding spatial predictions can be used to plan conservation actions for particular species, to design field surveys, to assess the risks related to the spread of invasive species, to select reserve locations and design reserve networks, and ultimately, to forecast distributional changes according to scenarios of climate and/or land use change.By assessing the effect of several factors on model performance and on the accuracy of spatial predictions, this thesis aims at improving techniques and data available for distribution modelling and at providing the best possible information to conservation managers to support their decisions and action plans for the conservation of biodiversity in Switzerland and beyond. Several monitoring programs have been put in place from the national to the global scale, and different sources of data now exist and start to be available to researchers who want to model species distribution. However, because of the lack of means, data are often not gathered at an appropriate resolution, are sampled only over limited areas, are not spatially explicit or do not provide a sound biological information. A typical example of this is data on 'habitat' (sensu biota). Even though this is essential information for an effective conservation planning, it often has to be approximated from land use, the closest available information. Moreover, data are often not sampled according to an established sampling design, which can lead to biased samples and consequently to spurious modelling results. Understanding the sources of variability linked to the different phases of the modelling process and their importance is crucial in order to evaluate the final distribution maps that are to be used for conservation purposes.The research presented in this thesis was essentially conducted within the framework of the Landspot Project, a project supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation. The main goal of the project was to assess the possible contribution of pre-modelled 'habitat' units to model the distribution of animal species, in particular butterfly species, across Switzerland. While pursuing this goal, different aspects of data quality, sampling design and modelling process were addressed and improved, and implications for conservation discussed. The main 'habitat' units considered in this thesis are grassland and forest communities of natural and anthropogenic origin as defined in the typology of habitats for Switzerland. These communities are mainly defined at the phytosociological level of the alliance. For the time being, no comprehensive map of such communities is available at the national scale and at fine resolution. As a first step, it was therefore necessary to create distribution models and maps for these communities across Switzerland and thus to gather and collect the necessary data. In order to reach this first objective, several new developments were necessary such as the definition of expert models, the classification of the Swiss territory in environmental domains, the design of an environmentally stratified sampling of the target vegetation units across Switzerland, the development of a database integrating a decision-support system assisting in the classification of the relevés, and the downscaling of the land use/cover data from 100 m to 25 m resolution.The main contributions of this thesis to the discipline of species distribution modelling (SDM) are assembled in four main scientific papers. In the first, published in Journal of Riogeography different issues related to the modelling process itself are investigated. First is assessed the effect of five different stepwise selection methods on model performance, stability and parsimony, using data of the forest inventory of State of Vaud. In the same paper are also assessed: the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5 prior to model calibration; the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences; four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation; and finally, the effect of integrating predictor interactions. Results allowed to specifically enhance the GRASP tool (Generalized Regression Analysis and Spatial Predictions) that now incorporates new selection methods and the possibility of dealing with interactions among predictors as well as spatial autocorrelation. The contribution of different sources of remotely sensed information to species distribution models was also assessed. The second paper (to be submitted) explores the combined effects of sample size and data post-stratification on the accuracy of models using data on grassland distribution across Switzerland collected within the framework of the Landspot project and supplemented with other important vegetation databases. For the stratification of the data, different spatial frameworks were compared. In particular, environmental stratification by Swiss Environmental Domains was compared to geographical stratification either by biogeographic regions or political states (cantons). The third paper (to be submitted) assesses the contribution of pre- modelled vegetation communities to the modelling of fauna. It is a two-steps approach that combines the disciplines of community ecology and spatial ecology and integrates their corresponding concepts of habitat. First are modelled vegetation communities per se and then these 'habitat' units are used in order to model animal species habitat. A case study is presented with grassland communities and butterfly species. Different ways of integrating vegetation information in the models of butterfly distribution were also evaluated. Finally, a glimpse to climate change is given in the fourth paper, recently published in Ecological Modelling. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for analysing range shifts, namely a catalogue of the possible patterns of change in the distribution of a species along elevational or other environmental gradients and an improved quantitative methodology to identify and objectively describe these patterns. The methodology was developed using data from the Swiss national common breeding bird survey and the article presents results concerning the observed shifts in the elevational distribution of breeding birds in Switzerland.The overall objective of this thesis is to improve species distribution models as potential inputs for different conservation tools (e.g. red lists, ecological networks, risk assessment of the spread of invasive species, vulnerability assessment in the context of climate change). While no conservation issues or tools are directly tested in this thesis, the importance of the proposed improvements made in species distribution modelling is discussed in the context of the selection of reserve networks.RESUMELes modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) représentent aujourd'hui un outil essentiel dans les domaines de recherche de l'écologie et de la biologie de la conservation. En combinant les observations de la présence des espèces ou de leur abondance avec des informations sur les caractéristiques environnementales des sites d'observation, ces modèles peuvent fournir des informations sur l'écologie des espèces, prédire leur distribution à travers le paysage ou l'extrapoler dans l'espace et le temps. Le déploiement des SDMs, soutenu par les systèmes d'information géographique (SIG), les nouveaux développements dans les modèles statistiques, ainsi que la constante augmentation des capacités de calcul, a révolutionné la façon dont les écologistes peuvent comprendre la distribution des espèces dans leur environnement. Les SDMs ont apporté l'outil qui permet de décrire la niche réalisée des espèces dans un espace environnemental multivarié et prédire leur distribution spatiale. Les prédictions, sous forme de carte probabilistes montrant la distribution potentielle de l'espèce, sont un moyen irremplaçable d'informer chaque unité du territoire de sa biodiversité potentielle. Les SDMs et les prédictions spatiales correspondantes peuvent être utilisés pour planifier des mesures de conservation pour des espèces particulières, pour concevoir des plans d'échantillonnage, pour évaluer les risques liés à la propagation d'espèces envahissantes, pour choisir l'emplacement de réserves et les mettre en réseau, et finalement, pour prévoir les changements de répartition en fonction de scénarios de changement climatique et/ou d'utilisation du sol. En évaluant l'effet de plusieurs facteurs sur la performance des modèles et sur la précision des prédictions spatiales, cette thèse vise à améliorer les techniques et les données disponibles pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces et à fournir la meilleure information possible aux gestionnaires pour appuyer leurs décisions et leurs plans d'action pour la conservation de la biodiversité en Suisse et au-delà. Plusieurs programmes de surveillance ont été mis en place de l'échelle nationale à l'échelle globale, et différentes sources de données sont désormais disponibles pour les chercheurs qui veulent modéliser la distribution des espèces. Toutefois, en raison du manque de moyens, les données sont souvent collectées à une résolution inappropriée, sont échantillonnées sur des zones limitées, ne sont pas spatialement explicites ou ne fournissent pas une information écologique suffisante. Un exemple typique est fourni par les données sur 'l'habitat' (sensu biota). Même s'il s'agit d'une information essentielle pour des mesures de conservation efficaces, elle est souvent approximée par l'utilisation du sol, l'information qui s'en approche le plus. En outre, les données ne sont souvent pas échantillonnées selon un plan d'échantillonnage établi, ce qui biaise les échantillons et par conséquent les résultats de la modélisation. Comprendre les sources de variabilité liées aux différentes phases du processus de modélisation s'avère crucial afin d'évaluer l'utilisation des cartes de distribution prédites à des fins de conservation.La recherche présentée dans cette thèse a été essentiellement menée dans le cadre du projet Landspot, un projet soutenu par le Fond National Suisse pour la Recherche. L'objectif principal de ce projet était d'évaluer la contribution d'unités 'd'habitat' pré-modélisées pour modéliser la répartition des espèces animales, notamment de papillons, à travers la Suisse. Tout en poursuivant cet objectif, différents aspects touchant à la qualité des données, au plan d'échantillonnage et au processus de modélisation sont abordés et améliorés, et leurs implications pour la conservation des espèces discutées. Les principaux 'habitats' considérés dans cette thèse sont des communautés de prairie et de forêt d'origine naturelle et anthropique telles que définies dans la typologie des habitats de Suisse. Ces communautés sont principalement définies au niveau phytosociologique de l'alliance. Pour l'instant aucune carte de la distribution de ces communautés n'est disponible à l'échelle nationale et à résolution fine. Dans un premier temps, il a donc été nécessaire de créer des modèles de distribution de ces communautés à travers la Suisse et par conséquent de recueillir les données nécessaires. Afin d'atteindre ce premier objectif, plusieurs nouveaux développements ont été nécessaires, tels que la définition de modèles experts, la classification du territoire suisse en domaines environnementaux, la conception d'un échantillonnage environnementalement stratifié des unités de végétation cibles dans toute la Suisse, la création d'une base de données intégrant un système d'aide à la décision pour la classification des relevés, et le « downscaling » des données de couverture du sol de 100 m à 25 m de résolution. Les principales contributions de cette thèse à la discipline de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces (SDM) sont rassemblées dans quatre articles scientifiques. Dans le premier article, publié dans le Journal of Biogeography, différentes questions liées au processus de modélisation sont étudiées en utilisant les données de l'inventaire forestier de l'Etat de Vaud. Tout d'abord sont évalués les effets de cinq méthodes de sélection pas-à-pas sur la performance, la stabilité et la parcimonie des modèles. Dans le même article sont également évalués: l'effet de la pondération des absences afin d'assurer une prévalence de 0.5 lors de la calibration du modèle; l'effet de limiter les absences au-delà de l'enveloppe définie par les présences; quatre méthodes différentes pour l'intégration de l'autocorrélation spatiale; et enfin, l'effet de l'intégration d'interactions entre facteurs. Les résultats présentés dans cet article ont permis d'améliorer l'outil GRASP qui intègre désonnais de nouvelles méthodes de sélection et la possibilité de traiter les interactions entre variables explicatives, ainsi que l'autocorrélation spatiale. La contribution de différentes sources de données issues de la télédétection a également été évaluée. Le deuxième article (en voie de soumission) explore les effets combinés de la taille de l'échantillon et de la post-stratification sur le la précision des modèles. Les données utilisées ici sont celles concernant la répartition des prairies de Suisse recueillies dans le cadre du projet Landspot et complétées par d'autres sources. Pour la stratification des données, différents cadres spatiaux ont été comparés. En particulier, la stratification environnementale par les domaines environnementaux de Suisse a été comparée à la stratification géographique par les régions biogéographiques ou par les cantons. Le troisième article (en voie de soumission) évalue la contribution de communautés végétales pré-modélisées à la modélisation de la faune. C'est une approche en deux étapes qui combine les disciplines de l'écologie des communautés et de l'écologie spatiale en intégrant leurs concepts de 'habitat' respectifs. Les communautés végétales sont modélisées d'abord, puis ces unités de 'habitat' sont utilisées pour modéliser les espèces animales. Une étude de cas est présentée avec des communautés prairiales et des espèces de papillons. Différentes façons d'intégrer l'information sur la végétation dans les modèles de répartition des papillons sont évaluées. Enfin, un clin d'oeil aux changements climatiques dans le dernier article, publié dans Ecological Modelling. Cet article propose un cadre conceptuel pour l'analyse des changements dans la distribution des espèces qui comprend notamment un catalogue des différentes formes possibles de changement le long d'un gradient d'élévation ou autre gradient environnemental, et une méthode quantitative améliorée pour identifier et décrire ces déplacements. Cette méthodologie a été développée en utilisant des données issues du monitoring des oiseaux nicheurs répandus et l'article présente les résultats concernant les déplacements observés dans la distribution altitudinale des oiseaux nicheurs en Suisse.L'objectif général de cette thèse est d'améliorer les modèles de distribution des espèces en tant que source d'information possible pour les différents outils de conservation (par exemple, listes rouges, réseaux écologiques, évaluation des risques de propagation d'espèces envahissantes, évaluation de la vulnérabilité des espèces dans le contexte de changement climatique). Bien que ces questions de conservation ne soient pas directement testées dans cette thèse, l'importance des améliorations proposées pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces est discutée à la fin de ce travail dans le contexte de la sélection de réseaux de réserves.

HIV behavioural surveillance in Switzerland: trends in drug consumption, injection and syringe distribution, 1993-2011

Background: As part of the second generation surveillance system for HIV/Aids in Switzerland, repeated cross-sectional surveys were conducted in 1993, 1994, 1996, 2000, 2006 and 2011 among attenders of all low threshold facilities (LTFs) with needle exchange programmes and/or supervised drug consumption rooms for injection or inhalation. The number of syringes distributed to the injectors has also been measured annually since 2000. Distribution in other settings, such as pharmacies, is also monitored nationally. Methods: Periodic surveys of LTFs have been conducted using an interviewer/self-administered questionnaire structured along four themes: socio-demographic characteristics, drug consumption, risk/preventive behaviour and health. Analysis is restricted to attenders who had injected drugs during their lifetime (IDU´s). Pearson's chi-square test and trend analysis were conducted on annual aggregated data. Trend significance was assessed using Stata's non parametric test nptrend. Results: Median age of IDU´s increased from 26 years in 1993 to 40 in 2011; most are men (78%). Total yearly number of syringes distributed by LTFs has decreased by 44% in 10 years. Use of cocaine has increased (Table 1). Injection, regular use of heroin and borrowing of syringes/needles have decreased, while sharing of other material remains stable. There are fewer new injectors; more IDU´s report substitution treatment. Most attenders had ever been tested for HIV (90% in 1993, 94% in 2011). Reported prevalence of HIV remained stable around 10%; that of HCV decreased from 62% in 2000 to 42% in 2011. Conclusions: Overall, findings indicate a decrease in injection as a means of drug consumption in that population. This interpretation is supported by data from other sources, such as a national decrease in distribution from other delivery points. Switzerland's behavioural surveillance system is sustainable and allows the HIV epidemic to be monitored among this hard-to-reach population, providing information for planning and evaluation.

Dummy run and conformity indices in the ongoing EORTC low-grade glioma trial 22033-26033: First evaluation of quality of radiotherapy planning.

PURPOSE: Early assessment of radiotherapy (RT) quality in the ongoing EORTC trial comparing primary temozolomide versus RT in low-grade gliomas. MATERIALS AND METHODS: RT plans provided for dummy cases were evaluated and compared against expert plans. We analysed: (1) tumour and organs-at-risk delineation, (2) geometric and dosimetric characteristics, (3) planning parameters, compliance with dose prescription and Dmax for OAR (4) indices: RTOG conformity index (CI), coverage factor (CF), tissue protection factor (PF); conformity number (CN = PF x CF); dose homogeneity in PTV (U). RESULTS: Forty-one RT plans were evaluated. Only two (5%) centres were requested to repeat CTV-PTV delineations. Three (7%) plans had a significant under-dosage and dose homogeneity in one deviated > 10%. Dose distribution was good with mean values of 1.5, 1, 0.68, and 0.68 (ideal values = 1) for CI, CF, PF, and CN, respectively. CI and CN strongly correlated with PF and they correlated with PTV. Planning with more beams seems to increase PTV(Dmin), improving CF. U correlated with PTV(Dmax). CONCLUSION: Preliminary results of the dummy run procedure indicate that most centres conformed to protocol requirements. To quantify plan quality we recommend systematic calculation of U and either CI or CN, both of which measure the amount of irradiated normal brain tissue.

Assessment of distribution and evolution of mechanical dyssynchrony in a porcine model of myocardial infarction by cardiovascular magnetic resonance.

BACKGROUND: We sought to investigate the relationship between infarct and dyssynchrony post- myocardial infarct (MI), in a porcine model. Mechanical dyssynchrony post-MI is associated with left ventricular (LV) remodeling and increased mortality. METHODS: Cine, gadolinium-contrast, and tagged cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) were performed pre-MI, 9 ± 2 days (early post-MI), and 33 ± 10 days (late post-MI) post-MI in 6 pigs to characterize cardiac morphology, location and extent of MI, and regional mechanics. LV mechanics were assessed by circumferential strain (eC). Electro-anatomic mapping (EAM) was performed within 24 hrs of CMR and prior to sacrifice. RESULTS: Mean infarct size was 21 ± 4% of LV volume with evidence of post-MI remodeling. Global eC significantly decreased post MI (-27 ± 1.6% vs. -18 ± 2.5% (early) and -17 ± 2.7% (late), p < 0.0001) with no significant change in peri-MI and MI segments between early and late time-points. Time to peak strain (TTP) was significantly longer in MI, compared to normal and peri-MI segments, both early (440 ± 40 ms vs. 329 ± 40 ms and 332 ± 36 ms, respectively; p = 0.0002) and late post-MI (442 ± 63 ms vs. 321 ± 40 ms and 355 ± 61 ms, respectively; p = 0.012). The standard deviation of TTP in 16 segments (SD16) significantly increased post-MI: 28 ± 7 ms to 50 ± 10 ms (early, p = 0.012) to 54 ± 19 ms (late, p = 0.004), with no change between early and late post-MI time-points (p = 0.56). TTP was not related to reduction of segmental contractility. EAM revealed late electrical activation and greatly diminished conduction velocity in the infarct (5.7 ± 2.4 cm/s), when compared to peri-infarct (18.7 ± 10.3 cm/s) and remote myocardium (39 ± 20.5 cm/s). CONCLUSIONS: Mechanical dyssynchrony occurs early after MI and is the result of delayed electrical and mechanical activation in the infarct.

Distribution of hospital admissions in a middle-income country of the African region

Introduction: Few studies have reported the distribution of all hospital admissions at the entire country level in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). We examined this question in Seychelles, a rapidly developing small island state in the Africa region, in which access to health care is provided free of charge to all inhabitants through a national health system and all hospital admissions are routinely registered. Methods: Based on all admissions to all hospitals in Seychelles in 2005-2008, we calculated the distribution of hospital admissions, age at admission, length of stay and bed occupancy (i.e. cumulated number of patients * number of days spent in all hospitals) according to both hospital departments and broad causes of diseases (using codes of the ICD-10 classification of diseases). Results: Bed occupancy was largest in the surgical wards (36.7% of all days spent in all hospitals), followed by the medical wards (24.3%), gynecology/obstetrics wards (18.4%), pediatric wards (11.2%), and psychiatric wards (7.2%). According to broad causes of diseases/conditions, bed occupancy was highest for obstetrics/gynecology conditions (19.9% of all days spent at hospital), mental diseases (8.6%), cardiovascular diseases (8.1%), upper aerodigestive/pulmonary diseases (8%), infectious/parasitic diseases (8%), gastrointestinal diseases (7.2%), and urogenital diseases (6.7%). Adjusted to 100'000 population, 153 hospital beds are needed every day, including 31 for obstetrics/gynecologic conditions, 13 for mental diseases, 12 for cardiovascular diseases, 12 for upper aerodigestive diseases, 12 for infectious/parasitic diseases, and 11 for gastrointestinal diseases. Conclusion: Our findings give a good indication of the overall distribution of admissions according to both hospital departments and broad causes of diseases in a middle-income country. These findings provide important information for health care planning at the national level

Accuracy of out-of-field dose calculation of tomotherapy and cyberknife treatment planning systems: A dosimetric study.

PURPOSE: Late toxicities such as second cancer induction become more important as treatment outcome improves. Often the dose distribution calculated with a commercial treatment planning system (TPS) is used to estimate radiation carcinogenesis for the radiotherapy patient. However, for locations beyond the treatment field borders, the accuracy is not well known. The aim of this study was to perform detailed out-of-field-measurements for a typical radiotherapy treatment plan administered with a Cyberknife and a Tomotherapy machine and to compare the measurements to the predictions of the TPS. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Individually calibrated thermoluminescent dosimeters were used to measure absorbed dose in an anthropomorphic phantom at 184 locations. The measured dose distributions from 6 MV intensity-modulated treatment beams for CyberKnife and TomoTherapy machines were compared to the dose calculations from the TPS. RESULTS: The TPS are underestimating the dose far away from the target volume. Quantitatively the Cyberknife underestimates the dose at 40cm from the PTV border by a factor of 60, the Tomotherapy TPS by a factor of two. If a 50% dose uncertainty is accepted, the Cyberknife TPS can predict doses down to approximately 10 mGy/treatment Gy, the Tomotherapy-TPS down to 0.75 mGy/treatment Gy. The Cyberknife TPS can then be used up to 10cm from the PTV border the Tomotherapy up to 35cm. CONCLUSIONS: We determined that the Cyberknife and Tomotherapy TPS underestimate substantially the doses far away from the treated volume. It is recommended not to use out-of-field doses from the Cyberknife TPS for applications like modeling of second cancer induction. The Tomotherapy TPS can be used up to 35cm from the PTV border (for a 390 cm(3) large PTV).

A new spin on a compositionalist predictive modelling framework for conservation planning: a tropical case study in Ecuador

Knowledge about spatial biodiversity patterns is a basic criterion for reserve network design. Although herbarium collections hold large quantities of information, the data are often scattered and cannot supply complete spatial coverage. Alternatively, herbarium data can be used to fit species distribution models and their predictions can be used to provide complete spatial coverage and derive species richness maps. Here, we build on previous effort to propose an improved compositionalist framework for using species distribution models to better inform conservation management. We illustrate the approach with models fitted with six different methods and combined using an ensemble approach for 408 plant species in a tropical and megadiverse country (Ecuador). As a complementary view to the traditional richness hotspots methodology, consisting of a simple stacking of species distribution maps, the compositionalist modelling approach used here combines separate predictions for different pools of species to identify areas of alternative suitability for conservation. Our results show that the compositionalist approach better captures the established protected areas than the traditional richness hotspots strategies and allows the identification of areas in Ecuador that would optimally complement the current protection network. Further studies should aim at refining the approach with more groups and additional species information.

Estimating traveltimes and groundwater flow patterns using 3D time-lapse crosshole ERT imaging of electrical resistivity fluctuations induced by infiltrating river water

The infiltration of river water into aquifers is of high relevance to drinking-water production and is a key driver of biogeochemical processes in the hyporheic and riparian zone, but the distribution and quantification of the infiltrating water are difficult to determine using conventional hydrological methods (e.g., borehole logging and tracer tests). By time-lapse inverting crosshole ERT (electrical resistivity tomography) monitoring data, we imaged groundwater flow patterns driven by river water infiltrating a perialpine gravel aquifer in northeastern Switzerland. This was possible because the electrical resistivity of the infiltrating water changed during rainfall-runoff events. Our time-lapse resistivity models indicated rather complex flow patterns as a result of spatially heterogeneous bank filtration and aquifer heterogeneity. The upper part of the aquifer was most affected by the river infiltrate, and the highest groundwater velocities and possible preferential flow occurred at shallow to intermediate depths. Time series of the reconstructed resistivity models matched groundwater electrical resistivity data recorded on borehole loggers in the upper and middle parts of the aquifer, whereas the resistivity models displayed smaller variations and delayed responses with respect to the logging data. in the lower part. This study demonstrated that crosshole ERT monitoring of natural electrical resistivity variations of river infiltrate could be used to image and quantify 3D bank filtration and aquifer dynamics at a high spatial resolution.

Le pergélisol dans les terrains sédimentaires à forte déclivité: distribution, régime thermique et instabilités

Résumé: Dans le contexte d'un climat de plus en plus chaud, la localisation du pergélisol dans les terrains sédimentaires à forte déclivité et l'évaluation des mouvements de terrain qui y ont cours s'avèrent primordiales. S'insérant dans cette problématique, ce travail de thèse s'articule autour de deux axes de recherche différents. D'un point de vue statique, cette recherche propose une étude de la distribution et des caractéristiques du pergélisol dans les éboulis de la zone périglaciaire alpine. D'un point de vue dynamique, une analyse de l'influence des caractéristiques du pergélisol (teneur en glace, température du pergélisol, etc.) et des variations des températures de l'air et du sol sur les vitesses de fluage des corps sédimentaires gelés est effectuée. Afin de répondre à ce double objectif, l'approche "terrain" a été privilégiée. Pour déterminer la répartition et les caractéristiques du pergélisol, les méthodes traditionnelles de prospection du pergélisol ont été utilisées, à savoir la mesure de la température du sol à la base du manteau neigeux (BTS), la mesure de la température du sol en continu ainsi que la méthode géoélectrique. Les mouvements de terrain ont pour leur part été mesurés à l'aide d'un GPS différentiel. L'étude de la distribution du pergélisol a été effectuée dans une quinzaine d'éboulis situés dans les régions du Mont Gelé (Verbier-Nendaz) et d'Arolla principalement. Dans la plupart des cas, un pergélisol a pu être mis en évidence dans la partie inférieure des accumulations sédimentaires, alors que la partie médiane des éboulis n'est, le plus souvent, pas gelée. Si cette absence de pergélisol se prolonge parfois dans les portions sommitales des pentes, les mesures réalisées montrent que dans d'autres cas des sédiments gelés y sont à nouveau présents. Les résistivités électriques mesurées dans les portions gelées des éboulis étudiés sont dans la plupart des cas nettement inférieures à celles mesurées sur les glaciers rocheux. Des études préalables ont montré que des circulations d'air internes sont responsables de l'anomalie thermique négative et, lorsqu'il existe, du pergélisol que l'on trouve dans la partie inférieure d'éboulis situés plus de 1000 m plus bas que la limite inférieure régionale du pergélisol discontinu. L'étude de quatre sites de basse altitude (1400-1900 m), et notamment l'équipement du site de Dreveneuse (Préalpes Valaisannes) avec deux forages, des capteurs de température de surface et un anémomètre a permis de vérifier et de préciser le mécanisme de ventilation actif au sein des éboulis froids de basse altitude. Ce mécanisme fonctionne de la manière suivante: en hiver, l'air contenu dans l'éboulis, plus chaud et plus léger que l'air extérieur, monte à l'intérieur de l'accumulation sédimentaire et est expulsé dans ses parties sommitales. Cet effet de cheminée provoque une aspiration d'air froid à l'intérieur de la partie inférieure de l'éboulis, causant ainsi un sur-refroidissement marqué du terrain. En été, le mécanisme s'inverse, l'éboulis étant plus froid que l'air environnant. De l'air froid est alors expulsé au bas de la pente. Une ventilation ascendante hivernale a pu être mise en évidence dans certains des éboulis de haute altitude étudiés. Elle est probablement en grande partie responsable de la configuration particulière des zones gelées observées. Même si l'existence d'un effet de cheminée n'a pu être démontrée dans tous les cas, du fait notamment de la glace interstitielle qui entrave le cheminement de l'air, des indices laissant présager son possible fonctionnement existent dans la quasi totalité des éboulis étudiés. L'absence de pergélisol à des altitudes qui lui sont favorables pourrait en tous les cas s'expliquer par un réchauffement du terrain lié à des expulsions d'air relativement chaud. L'étude des mouvements de terrain a été effectuée sur une dizaine de sites, principalement sur des glaciers rocheux, mais également sur une moraine de poussée et - II - Résumé ? abstract quelques éboulis. Plusieurs glaciers rocheux présentent des formes de déstabilisation récente (niches d'arrachement, blocs basculés, apparition de la matrice fine à la surface, etc.), ce qui témoigne d'une récente accélération des vitesses de déplacement. Ce phénomène, qui semble général à l'échelle alpine, est probablement à mettre sur le compte du réchauffement du pergélisol depuis une vingtaine d'années. Les vitesses mesurées sur ces formations sont souvent plus élevées que les valeurs habituellement proposées dans la littérature. On note par ailleurs une forte variabilité inter-annuelle des vitesses, qui semblent dépendre de la variation de la température moyenne annuelle de surface. Abstract: In the context of a warmer climate, the localisation of permafrost in steep sedimentary terrain and the measurement of terrain movements that occur in these areas is of great importance. With respect to these problems, this PhD thesis follows two different research axes. From a static point of view, the research presents a study of the permafrost distribution and characteristics in the talus slopes of the alpine periglacial belt. From a dynamic point of view, an analysis of the influence of the permafrost characteristics (ice content, permafrost temperature, etc.) and air and soil temperature variations on the creep velocities of frozen sedimentary bodies is carried out. In order to attain this double objective, the "field" approach was favoured. To determine the distribution and the characteristics of permafrost, the traditional methods of permafrost prospecting were used, i.e. ground surface temperature measurements at the base of the snow cover (BTS), year-round ground temperature measurements and DC-resistivity prospecting. The terrain movements were measured using a differential GPS. The permafrost distribution study was carried out on 15 talus slopes located mainly in the Mont Gelé (Verbier-Nendaz) and Arolla areas (Swiss Alps). In most cases, permafrost was found in the lower part of the talus slope, whereas the medium part was free of ice. In some cases, the upper part of the talus is also free of permafrost, whereas in other cases permafrost is present. Electrical resistivities measured in the frozen parts of the studied talus are in most cases clearly lower than those measured on rock glaciers. Former studies have shown that internal air circulation is responsible for the negative thermal anomaly and, when it exists, the permafrost present in the lower part of talus slopes located more than 1000 m below the regional lower limit of discontinuous permafrost. The study of four low-altitude talus slopes (1400-1900 m), and notably the equipment of Dreveneuse field site (Valais Prealps) with two boreholes, surface temperature sensors and an anemometer permitted to verify and to detail the ventilation mechanism active in low altitude talus slopes. This mechanism works in the following way: in winter, the air contained in the block accumulation is warmer and lighter than the surrounding air and therefore moves upward in the talus and is expelled in its upper part. This chimney effect induces an aspiration of cold air in the interior of the lower part of talus, that causes a strong overcooling of the ground. In summer, the mechanism is reversed because the talus slope is colder than the surrounding air. Cold air is then expelled in the lower part of the slope. Evidence of ascending ventilation in wintertime could also be found in some of the studied high-altitude talus slopes. It is probably mainly responsible for the particular configuration of the observed frozen areas. Even if the existence of a chimney effect could not be demonstrated in all cases, notably because of interstitial ice that obstructs Résumé ? abstract - III - the air circulation, indices of its presence exist in nearly all the studied talus. The absence of permafrost at altitudes favourable to its presence could be explained, for example, by the terrain warming caused by expulsion of relatively warm air. Terrain movements were measured at about ten sites, mainly on rock glaciers, but also on a push moraine and some talus slopes. Field observations reveal that many rock glaciers display recent destabilization features (landslide scars, tilted blocks, presence of fine grained sediments at the surface, etc.) that indicate a probable recent acceleration of the creep velocities. This phenomenon, which seems to be widespread at the alpine scale, is probably linked to the permafrost warming during the last decades. The measured velocities are often higher than values usually proposed in the literature. In addition, strong inter-annual variations of the velocities were observed, which seems to depend on the mean annual ground temperature variations.

Influence of heart motion on cardiac output estimation by means of electrical impedance tomography: a case study.

Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) is a non-invasive imaging technique that can measure cardiac-related intra-thoracic impedance changes. EIT-based cardiac output estimation relies on the assumption that the amplitude of the impedance change in the ventricular region is representative of stroke volume (SV). However, other factors such as heart motion can significantly affect this ventricular impedance change. In the present case study, a magnetic resonance imaging-based dynamic bio-impedance model fitting the morphology of a single male subject was built. Simulations were performed to evaluate the contribution of heart motion and its influence on EIT-based SV estimation. Myocardial deformation was found to be the main contributor to the ventricular impedance change (56%). However, motion-induced impedance changes showed a strong correlation (r = 0.978) with left ventricular volume. We explained this by the quasi-incompressibility of blood and myocardium. As a result, EIT achieved excellent accuracy in estimating a wide range of simulated SV values (error distribution of 0.57 ± 2.19 ml (1.02 ± 2.62%) and correlation of r = 0.996 after a two-point calibration was applied to convert impedance values to millilitres). As the model was based on one single subject, the strong correlation found between motion-induced changes and ventricular volume remains to be verified in larger datasets.