Which screening strategy using BMD measurements would be most cost effective for hip fracture prevention in elderly women? A decision analysis based on a Markov model.

INTRODUCTION: Hip fractures are responsible for excessive mortality, decreasing the 5-year survival rate by about 20%. From an economic perspective, they represent a major source of expense, with direct costs in hospitalization, rehabilitation, and institutionalization. The incidence rate sharply increases after the age of 70, but it can be reduced in women aged 70-80 years by therapeutic interventions. Recent analyses suggest that the most efficient strategy is to implement such interventions in women at the age of 70 years. As several guidelines recommend bone mineral density (BMD) screening of postmenopausal women with clinical risk factors, our objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of two screening strategies applied to elderly women aged 70 years and older. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using decision-tree analysis and a Markov model. Two alternative strategies, one measuring BMD of all women, and one measuring BMD only of those having at least one risk factor, were compared with the reference strategy "no screening". Cost-effectiveness ratios were measured as cost per year gained without hip fracture. Most probabilities were based on data observed in EPIDOS, SEMOF and OFELY cohorts. RESULTS: In this model, which is mostly based on observed data, the strategy "screen all" was more cost effective than "screen women at risk." For one woman screened at the age of 70 and followed for 10 years, the incremental (additional) cost-effectiveness ratio of these two strategies compared with the reference was 4,235 euros and 8,290 euros, respectively. CONCLUSION: The results of this model, under the assumptions described in the paper, suggest that in women aged 70-80 years, screening all women with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) would be more effective than no screening or screening only women with at least one risk factor. Cost-effectiveness studies based on decision-analysis trees maybe useful tools for helping decision makers, and further models based on different assumptions should be performed to improve the level of evidence on cost-effectiveness ratios of the usual screening strategies for osteoporosis.

Complex landslide behaviour and structural controlled by the structures: A 3D conceptual model example of Åknes rockslide, Norway

Åknes is an active complex large rockslide of approximately 30?40 Mm3 located within the Proterozoic gneisses of western Norway. The observed surface displacements indicate that this rockslide is divided into several blocks moving in different directions at velocities of between 3 and 10 cm year?1. Because of regional safety issues and economic interests this rockslide has been extensively monitored since 2004. The understanding of the deformation mechanism is crucial for the implementation of a viable monitoring system. Detailed field investigations and the analysis of a digital elevation model (DEM) indicate that the movements and the block geometry are controlled by the main schistosity (S1) in gneisses, folds, joints and regional faults. Such complex slope deformations use pre-existing structures, but also result in new failure surfaces and deformation zones, like preferential rupture in fold-hinge zones. Our interpretation provides a consistent conceptual three-dimensional (3D) model for the movements measured by various methods that is crucial for numerical stability modelling. In addition, this reinterpretation of the morphology confirms that in the past several rockslides occurred from the Åknes slope. They may be related to scars propagating along the vertical foliation in folds hinges. Finally, a model of the evolution of the Åknes slope is presented.

Three Essays on the Formation and Impact of Economic Policy

Introduction In my thesis I argue that economic policy is all about economics and politics. Consequently, analysing and understanding economic policy ideally has at least two parts. The economics part, which is centered around the expected impact of a specific policy on the real economy both in terms of efficiency and equity. The insights of this part point into which direction the fine-tuning of economic policies should go. However, fine-tuning of economic policies will be most likely subject to political constraints. That is why, in the politics part, a much better understanding can be gained by taking into account how the incentives of politicians and special interest groups as well as the role played by different institutional features affect the formation of economic policies. The first part and chapter of my thesis concentrates on the efficiency-related impact of economic policies: how does corporate income taxation in general, and corporate income tax progressivity in specific, affect the creation of new firms? Reduced progressivity and flat-rate taxes are in vogue. By 2009, 22 countries are operating flat-rate income tax systems, as do 7 US states and 14 Swiss cantons (for corporate income only). Tax reform proposals in the spirit of the "flat tax" model typically aim to reduce three parameters: the average tax burden, the progressivity of the tax schedule, and the complexity of the tax code. In joint work, Marius Brülhart and I explore the implications of changes in these three parameters on entrepreneurial activity, measured by counts of firm births in a panel of Swiss municipalities. Our results show that lower average tax rates and reduced complexity of the tax code promote firm births. Controlling for these effects, reduced progressivity inhibits firm births. Our reading of these results is that tax progressivity has an insurance effect that facilitates entrepreneurial risk taking. The positive effects of lower tax levels and reduced complexity are estimated to be significantly stronger than the negative effect of reduced progressivity. To the extent that firm births reflect desirable entrepreneurial dynamism, it is not the flattening of tax schedules that is key to successful tax reforms, but the lowering of average tax burdens and the simplification of tax codes. Flatness per se is of secondary importance and even appears to be detrimental to firm births. The second part of my thesis, which corresponds to the second and third chapter, concentrates on how economic policies are formed. By the nature of the analysis, these two chapters draw on a broader literature than the first chapter. Both economists and political scientists have done extensive research on how economic policies are formed. Thereby, researchers in both disciplines have recognised the importance of special interest groups trying to influence policy-making through various channels. In general, economists base their analysis on a formal and microeconomically founded approach, while abstracting from institutional details. In contrast, political scientists' frameworks are generally richer in terms of institutional features but lack the theoretical rigour of economists' approaches. I start from the economist's point of view. However, I try to borrow as much as possible from the findings of political science to gain a better understanding of how economic policies are formed in reality. In the second chapter, I take a theoretical approach and focus on the institutional policy framework to explore how interactions between different political institutions affect the outcome of trade policy in presence of special interest groups' lobbying. Standard political economy theory treats the government as a single institutional actor which sets tariffs by trading off social welfare against contributions from special interest groups seeking industry-specific protection from imports. However, these models lack important (institutional) features of reality. That is why, in my model, I split up the government into a legislative and executive branch which can both be lobbied by special interest groups. Furthermore, the legislative has the option to delegate its trade policy authority to the executive. I allow the executive to compensate the legislative in exchange for delegation. Despite ample anecdotal evidence, bargaining over delegation of trade policy authority has not yet been formally modelled in the literature. I show that delegation has an impact on policy formation in that it leads to lower equilibrium tariffs compared to a standard model without delegation. I also show that delegation will only take place if the lobby is not strong enough to prevent it. Furthermore, the option to delegate increases the bargaining power of the legislative at the expense of the lobbies. Therefore, the findings of this model can shed a light on why the U.S. Congress often practices delegation to the executive. In the final chapter of my thesis, my coauthor, Antonio Fidalgo, and I take a narrower approach and focus on the individual politician level of policy-making to explore how connections to private firms and networks within parliament affect individual politicians' decision-making. Theories in the spirit of the model of the second chapter show how campaign contributions from lobbies to politicians can influence economic policies. There exists an abundant empirical literature that analyses ties between firms and politicians based on campaign contributions. However, the evidence on the impact of campaign contributions is mixed, at best. In our paper, we analyse an alternative channel of influence in the shape of personal connections between politicians and firms through board membership. We identify a direct effect of board membership on individual politicians' voting behaviour and an indirect leverage effect when politicians with board connections influence non-connected peers. We assess the importance of these two effects using a vote in the Swiss parliament on a government bailout of the national airline, Swissair, in 2001, which serves as a natural experiment. We find that both the direct effect of connections to firms and the indirect leverage effect had a strong and positive impact on the probability that a politician supported the government bailout.

Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale: some case studies

Every year, debris flows cause huge damage in mountainous areas. Due to population pressure in hazardous zones, the socio-economic impact is much higher than in the past. Therefore, the development of indicative susceptibility hazard maps is of primary importance, particularly in developing countries. However, the complexity of the phenomenon and the variability of local controlling factors limit the use of processbased models for a first assessment. A debris flow model has been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using digital elevation model (DEM) with a GIS-based approach.. The automatic identification of source areas and the estimation of debris flow spreading, based on GIS tools, provide a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. One of the main advantages of this model is its workability. In fact, everything is open to the user, from the data choice to the selection of the algorithms and their parameters. The Flow-R model was tested in three different contexts: two in Switzerland and one in Pakistan, for indicative susceptibility hazard mapping. It was shown that the quality of the DEM is the most important parameter to obtain reliable results for propagation, but also to identify the potential debris flows sources.

A deterministic model to assess the impact of AIDS interventions in countries with generalized HIV epidemic. An application to Botswana

General introductionThe Human Immunodeficiency/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic, despite recent encouraging announcements by the World Health Organization (WHO) is still today one of the world's major health care challenges.The present work lies in the field of health care management, in particular, we aim to evaluate the behavioural and non-behavioural interventions against HIV/AIDS in developing countries through a deterministic simulation model, both in human and economic terms. We will focus on assessing the effectiveness of the antiretroviral therapies (ART) in heterosexual populations living in lesser developed countries where the epidemic has generalized (formerly defined by the WHO as type II countries). The model is calibrated using Botswana as a case study, however our model can be adapted to other countries with similar transmission dynamics.The first part of this thesis consists of reviewing the main mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general but with a focus on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. We also review deterministic models assessing HIV interventions with a focus on models aimed at African countries. This review helps us to recognize the need for a generic model and allows us to define a typical structure of such a generic deterministic model.The second part describes the main feed-back loops underlying the dynamics of HIV transmission. These loops represent the foundation of our model. This part also provides a detailed description of the model, including the various infected and non-infected population groups, the type of sexual relationships, the infection matrices, important factors impacting HIV transmission such as condom use, other sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and male circumcision. We also included in the model a dynamic life expectancy calculator which, to our knowledge, is a unique feature allowing more realistic cost-efficiency calculations. Various intervention scenarios are evaluated using the model, each of them including ART in combination with other interventions, namely: circumcision, campaigns aimed at behavioral change (Abstain, Be faithful or use Condoms also named ABC campaigns), and treatment of other STD. A cost efficiency analysis (CEA) is performed for each scenario. The CEA consists of measuring the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. This part also describes the model calibration and validation, including a sensitivity analysis.The third part reports the results and discusses the model limitations. In particular, we argue that the combination of ART and ABC campaigns and ART and treatment of other STDs are the most cost-efficient interventions through 2020. The main model limitations include modeling the complexity of sexual relationships, omission of international migration and ignoring variability in infectiousness according to the AIDS stage.The fourth part reviews the major contributions of the thesis and discusses model generalizability and flexibility. Finally, we conclude that by selecting the adequate interventions mix, policy makers can significantly reduce the adult prevalence in Botswana in the coming twenty years providing the country and its donors can bear the cost involved.Part I: Context and literature reviewIn this section, after a brief introduction to the general literature we focus in section two on the key mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general with a focus on HIV transmission. Section three provides a description of HIV policy models, with a focus on deterministic models. This leads us in section four to envision the need for a generic deterministic HIV policy model and briefly describe the structure of such a generic model applicable to countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic, also defined as pattern II countries by the WHO.

Health literacy [Document électronique] : an economic perspective and data for Switzerland. Part 2, A review of health literacy measures and a cost assessment of limited health literacy

Summary : 1. Measuring health literacy in Switzerland: a review of six surveys: 1.1 Comparison of questionnaires - 1.2 Measures of health literacy in Switzerland - 1.3 Discussion of Swiss data on HL - 1.4 Description of the six surveys: 1.4.1 Current health trends and health literacy in the Swiss population (gfs-UNIVOX), 1.4.2 Nutrition, physical exercise and body weight : opinions and perceptions of the Swiss population (USI), 1.4.3 Health Literacy in Switzerland (ISPMZ), 1.4.4 Swiss Health Survey (SHS), 1.4.5 Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), 1.4.6 Adult literacy and life skills survey (ALL). - 2 . Economic costs of low health literacy in Switzerland: a rough calculation. Appendix: Screenshots cost model

Evidence-based Economic Policy - Three Essays in Applied Microeconometrics

Over thirty years ago, Leamer (1983) - among many others - expressed doubts about the quality and usefulness of empirical analyses for the economic profession by stating that "hardly anyone takes data analyses seriously. Or perhaps more accurately, hardly anyone takes anyone else's data analyses seriously" (p.37). Improvements in data quality, more robust estimation methods and the evolution of better research designs seem to make that assertion no longer justifiable (see Angrist and Pischke (2010) for a recent response to Leamer's essay). The economic profes- sion and policy makers alike often rely on empirical evidence as a means to investigate policy relevant questions. The approach of using scientifically rigorous and systematic evidence to identify policies and programs that are capable of improving policy-relevant outcomes is known under the increasingly popular notion of evidence-based policy. Evidence-based economic policy often relies on randomized or quasi-natural experiments in order to identify causal effects of policies. These can require relatively strong assumptions or raise concerns of external validity. In the context of this thesis, potential concerns are for example endogeneity of policy reforms with respect to the business cycle in the first chapter, the trade-off between precision and bias in the regression-discontinuity setting in chapter 2 or non-representativeness of the sample due to self-selection in chapter 3. While the identification strategies are very useful to gain insights into the causal effects of specific policy questions, transforming the evidence into concrete policy conclusions can be challenging. Policy develop- ment should therefore rely on the systematic evidence of a whole body of research on a specific policy question rather than on a single analysis. In this sense, this thesis cannot and should not be viewed as a comprehensive analysis of specific policy issues but rather as a first step towards a better understanding of certain aspects of a policy question. The thesis applies new and innovative identification strategies to policy-relevant and topical questions in the fields of labor economics and behavioral environmental economics. Each chapter relies on a different identification strategy. In the first chapter, we employ a difference- in-differences approach to exploit the quasi-experimental change in the entitlement of the max- imum unemployment benefit duration to identify the medium-run effects of reduced benefit durations on post-unemployment outcomes. Shortening benefit duration carries a double- dividend: It generates fiscal benefits without deteriorating the quality of job-matches. On the contrary, shortened benefit durations improve medium-run earnings and employment possibly through containing the negative effects of skill depreciation or stigmatization. While the first chapter provides only indirect evidence on the underlying behavioral channels, in the second chapter I develop a novel approach that allows to learn about the relative impor- tance of the two key margins of job search - reservation wage choice and search effort. In the framework of a standard non-stationary job search model, I show how the exit rate from un- employment can be decomposed in a way that is informative on reservation wage movements over the unemployment spell. The empirical analysis relies on a sharp discontinuity in unem- ployment benefit entitlement, which can be exploited in a regression-discontinuity approach to identify the effects of extended benefit durations on unemployment and survivor functions. I find evidence that calls for an important role of reservation wage choices for job search be- havior. This can have direct implications for the optimal design of unemployment insurance policies. The third chapter - while thematically detached from the other chapters - addresses one of the major policy challenges of the 21st century: climate change and resource consumption. Many governments have recently put energy efficiency on top of their agendas. While pricing instru- ments aimed at regulating the energy demand have often been found to be short-lived and difficult to enforce politically, the focus of energy conservation programs has shifted towards behavioral approaches - such as provision of information or social norm feedback. The third chapter describes a randomized controlled field experiment in which we discuss the effective- ness of different types of feedback on residential electricity consumption. We find that detailed and real-time feedback caused persistent electricity reductions on the order of 3 to 5 % of daily electricity consumption. Also social norm information can generate substantial electricity sav- ings when designed appropriately. The findings suggest that behavioral approaches constitute effective and relatively cheap way of improving residential energy-efficiency.

The In Vitro Mass-Produced Model Mycorrhizal Fungus, Rhizophagus irregularis, Significantly Increases Yields of the Globally Important Food Security Crop Cassava.

The arbuscular mycorrhizal symbiosis is formed between arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) and plant roots. The fungi provide the plant with inorganic phosphate (P). The symbiosis can result in increased plant growth. Although most global food crops naturally form this symbiosis, very few studies have shown that their practical application can lead to large-scale increases in food production. Application of AMF to crops in the tropics is potentially effective for improving yields. However, a main problem of using AMF on a large-scale is producing cheap inoculum in a clean sterile carrier and sufficiently concentrated to cheaply transport. Recently, mass-produced in vitro inoculum of the model mycorrhizal fungus Rhizophagus irregularis became available, potentially making its use viable in tropical agriculture. One of the most globally important food plants in the tropics is cassava. We evaluated the effect of in vitro mass-produced R. irregularis inoculum on the yield of cassava crops at two locations in Colombia. A significant effect of R. irregularis inoculation on yield occurred at both sites. At one site, yield increases were observed irrespective of P fertilization. At the other site, inoculation with AMF and 50% of the normally applied P gave the highest yield. Despite that AMF inoculation resulted in greater food production, economic analyses revealed that AMF inoculation did not give greater return on investment than with conventional cultivation. However, the amount of AMF inoculum used was double the recommended dose and was calculated with European, not Colombian, inoculum prices. R. irregularis can also be manipulated genetically in vitro, leading to improved plant growth. We conclude that application of in vitro R. irregularis is currently a way of increasing cassava yields, that there is a strong potential for it to be economically profitable and that there is enormous potential to improve this efficiency further in the future.

Determinants of Corporate Disclosure : A Multicountry, Multilevel Model

Abstract The complexity of the current business world is making corporate disclosure more and more important for information users. These users, including investors, financial analysts, and government authorities rely on the disclosed information to make their investment decisions, analyze and recommend shares, and to draft regulation policies. Moreover, the globalization of capital markets has raised difficulties for information users in understanding the differences incorporate disclosure across countries and across firms. Using a sample of 797 firms from 34 countries, this thesis advances the literature on disclosure by illustrating comprehensively the disclosure determinants originating at firm systems and national systems based on the multilevel latent variable approach. Under this approach, the overall variation associated with the firm-specific variables is decomposed into two parts, the within-country and the between-country part. Accordingly, the model estimates the latent association between corporate disclosure and information demand at two levels, the within-country and the between-country level. The results indicate that the variables originating from corporate systems are hierarchically correlated with those from the country environment. The information demand factor indicated by the number of exchanges listed and the number of analyst recommendations can significantly explain the variation of corporate disclosure for both "within" and "between" countries. The exogenous influences of firm fundamentals-firm size and performance-are exerted indirectly through the information demand factor. Specifically, if the between-country variation in firm variables is taken into account, only the variables of legal systems and economic growth keep significance in explaining the disclosure differences across countries. These findings strongly support the hypothesis that disclosure is a response to both corporate systems and national systems, but the influence of the latter on disclosure reflected significantly through that of the former. In addition, the results based on ADR (American Depositary Receipt) firms suggest that the globalization of capital markets is harmonizing the disclosure behavior of cross-boundary listed firms, but it cannot entirely eliminate the national features in disclosure and other firm-specific characteristics.

Metallogenic model of the Trepca Pb-Zn-Ag skarn deposit, Kosovo: Evidence from fluid inclusions, Rare Earth Elements, and stable isotope data

The Trepca Pb-Zn-Ag skarn deposit (29 Mt of ore at 3.45% Pb, 2.30% Zn, and 80 g/t Ag) is located in the Kopaonik block of the western Vardar zone, Kosovo. The mineralization, hosted by recrystallized limestone of Upper Triassic age, was structurally and lithologically controlled. Ore deposition is spatially and temporally related with the postcollisional magmatism of Oligocene age (23-26 Ma). The deposit was formed during two distinct mineralization stages: an early prograde closed-system and a later retrograde open-system stage. The prograde mineralization consisting mainly of pyroxenes (Hd(54-100)Jo(0-45)Di(0-45)) resulted from the interaction of magmatic fluids associated with Oligocene (23-26 Ma) postcollisional magmatism. Whereas there is no direct contact between magmatic rocks and the mineralization, the deposit is classified as a distal Pb-Zn-Ag skarn. Abundant pyroxene reflects low oxygen fugacity (<10(-31) bar) and anhydrous environment. Fluid inclusion data and mineral assemblage limit the prograde stage within a temperature range between 390 degrees and 475 degrees C. Formation pressure is estimated below 900 bars. Isotopic composition of aqueous fluid, inclusions hosted by hedenbergite (delta D = -108 to -130 parts per thousand; delta O-18 = 7.5-8.0 parts per thousand), Mn-enriched mineralogy and high REE content of the host carbonates at the contact with the skarn mineralization suggest that a magmatic fluid was modified during its infiltration through the country rocks. The retrograde mineral assemblage comprises ilvaite, magnetite, arsenopyrite, pyrrhotite, marcasite, pyrite, quartz, and various carbonates. Increases in oxygen and sulfur fugacities, as well as a hydrous character of mineralization, require an open-system model. The opening of the system is related to phreatomagmatic explosion and formation of the breccia. Arsenopyrite geothermometer limits the retrograde stage within the temperature range between 350 degrees and 380 degrees C and sulfur fugacity between 10(-8.8) and 10(-7.2) bars. The principal ore minerals, galena, sphalerite, pyrite, and minor chalcopyrite, were deposited from a moderately saline Ca-Na chloride fluid at around 350 degrees C. According to the isotopic composition of fluid inclusions hosted by sphalerite (delta D = -55 to -74 parts per thousand; delta O-18 = -9.6 to -13.6 parts per thousand), the fluid responsible for ore deposition was dominantly meteoric in origin. The delta S-31 values of the sulfides spanning between -5.5 and +10 parts per thousand point to a magmatic origin of sulfur. Ore deposition appears to have been largely contemporaneous with the retrograde stage of the skarn development. Postore stage accompanied the precipitation of significant amount of carbonates including the travertine deposits at the deposit surface. Mineralogical composition of travertine varies from calcite to siderite and all carbonates contain significant amounts of Mn. Decreased formation temperature and depletion in the REE content point to an influence of pH-neutralized cold ground water and dying magmatic system.

The sandstone-hosted Beverley uranium Deposit, Lake Frome Basin, South Australia: Mineralogy, geochemistry, and a time-constrained model for its genesis

The sandstone-hosted Beverley uranium deposit is located in terrestrial sediments in the Lake Frome basin in the North Flinders Ranges, South Australia. The deposit is 13 km from the U-rich Mesoproterozoic basement of the Mount Painter inlier, which is being uplifted 100 to 200 m above the basin by neotectonic activity that probably initiated in the early Pliocene. The mineralization was deposited mainly in organic matter-poor Miocene lacustrine sands and partly in the underlying reductive strata comprising organic matter-rich clays and silts. The bulk of the mineralization consists of coffinite and/or uraninite nodules, growing around Co-rich pyrite with an S isotope composition (delta S-34 = 1.0 +/- 0.3 parts per thousand), suggestive of an early diagenetic lacustrine origin. In contrast, authigenic sulfides in the bulk of the sediments have a negative S isotope signature (delta S-34 ranges from -26.2 to -35.5 parts per thousand), indicative of an origin via bacterially mediated sulfate reduction. Minor amounts of Zn-bearing native copper and native lead also support the presence of specific, reducing microenvironments in the ore zone. Small amounts of carnotite are associated with the coffinite ore and also occur beneath a paleosoil horizon overlying the uranium deposit. Provenance studies suggest that the host Miocene sediments were derived from the reworking of Early Cretaceous glacial or glaciolacustrine sediments ultimately derived from Paleozoic terranes in eastern Australia. In contrast, the overlying Pliocene strata were in part derived from the Mesoproterozoic basement inlier. Mass-balance and geochemical data confirm that granites of the Mount Painter domain were the ultimate source of U and BEE at Beverley. U-Pb dating of coffinite and carnotite suggest that the U mineralization is Pliocene (6.7-3.4 Ma). The suitability of the Beverley deposit for efficient mining via in situ leaching, and hence its economic value, are determined by the nature of the hosting sand unit, which provides the permeability and low reactivity required for high fluid flow and low chemical consumption. These favorable sedimentologic and geometrical features result from a complex conjunction of factors, including deposition in lacustrine shore environment, reworking of angular sands of glacial origin, deep Pliocene weathering, and proximity to an active fault exposing extremely U rich rocks.

Looking for orders of magnitude : five essays in trade and the environment and economic geography

General Summary Although the chapters of this thesis address a variety of issues, the principal aim is common: test economic ideas in an international economic context. The intention has been to supply empirical findings using the largest suitable data sets and making use of the most appropriate empirical techniques. This thesis can roughly be divided into two parts: the first one, corresponding to the first two chapters, investigates the link between trade and the environment, the second one, the last three chapters, is related to economic geography issues. Environmental problems are omnipresent in the daily press nowadays and one of the arguments put forward is that globalisation causes severe environmental problems through the reallocation of investments and production to countries with less stringent environmental regulations. A measure of the amplitude of this undesirable effect is provided in the first part. The third and the fourth chapters explore the productivity effects of agglomeration. The computed spillover effects between different sectors indicate how cluster-formation might be productivity enhancing. The last chapter is not about how to better understand the world but how to measure it and it was just a great pleasure to work on it. "The Economist" writes every week about the impressive population and economic growth observed in China and India, and everybody agrees that the world's center of gravity has shifted. But by how much and how fast did it shift? An answer is given in the last part, which proposes a global measure for the location of world production and allows to visualize our results in Google Earth. A short summary of each of the five chapters is provided below. The first chapter, entitled "Unraveling the World-Wide Pollution-Haven Effect" investigates the relative strength of the pollution haven effect (PH, comparative advantage in dirty products due to differences in environmental regulation) and the factor endowment effect (FE, comparative advantage in dirty, capital intensive products due to differences in endowments). We compute the pollution content of imports using the IPPS coefficients (for three pollutants, namely biological oxygen demand, sulphur dioxide and toxic pollution intensity for all manufacturing sectors) provided by the World Bank and use a gravity-type framework to isolate the two above mentioned effects. Our study covers 48 countries that can be classified into 29 Southern and 19 Northern countries and uses the lead content of gasoline as proxy for environmental stringency. For North-South trade we find significant PH and FE effects going in the expected, opposite directions and being of similar magnitude. However, when looking at world trade, the effects become very small because of the high North-North trade share, where we have no a priori expectations about the signs of these effects. Therefore popular fears about the trade effects of differences in environmental regulations might by exaggerated. The second chapter is entitled "Is trade bad for the Environment? Decomposing worldwide SO2 emissions, 1990-2000". First we construct a novel and large database containing reasonable estimates of SO2 emission intensities per unit labor that vary across countries, periods and manufacturing sectors. Then we use these original data (covering 31 developed and 31 developing countries) to decompose the worldwide SO2 emissions into the three well known dynamic effects (scale, technique and composition effect). We find that the positive scale (+9,5%) and the negative technique (-12.5%) effect are the main driving forces of emission changes. Composition effects between countries and sectors are smaller, both negative and of similar magnitude (-3.5% each). Given that trade matters via the composition effects this means that trade reduces total emissions. We next construct, in a first experiment, a hypothetical world where no trade happens, i.e. each country produces its imports at home and does no longer produce its exports. The difference between the actual and this no-trade world allows us (under the omission of price effects) to compute a static first-order trade effect. The latter now increases total world emissions because it allows, on average, dirty countries to specialize in dirty products. However, this effect is smaller (3.5%) in 2000 than in 1990 (10%), in line with the negative dynamic composition effect identified in the previous exercise. We then propose a second experiment, comparing effective emissions with the maximum or minimum possible level of SO2 emissions. These hypothetical levels of emissions are obtained by reallocating labour accordingly across sectors within each country (under the country-employment and the world industry-production constraints). Using linear programming techniques, we show that emissions are reduced by 90% with respect to the worst case, but that they could still be reduced further by another 80% if emissions were to be minimized. The findings from this chapter go together with those from chapter one in the sense that trade-induced composition effect do not seem to be the main source of pollution, at least in the recent past. Going now to the economic geography part of this thesis, the third chapter, entitled "A Dynamic Model with Sectoral Agglomeration Effects" consists of a short note that derives the theoretical model estimated in the fourth chapter. The derivation is directly based on the multi-regional framework by Ciccone (2002) but extends it in order to include sectoral disaggregation and a temporal dimension. This allows us formally to write present productivity as a function of past productivity and other contemporaneous and past control variables. The fourth chapter entitled "Sectoral Agglomeration Effects in a Panel of European Regions" takes the final equation derived in chapter three to the data. We investigate the empirical link between density and labour productivity based on regional data (245 NUTS-2 regions over the period 1980-2003). Using dynamic panel techniques allows us to control for the possible endogeneity of density and for region specific effects. We find a positive long run elasticity of density with respect to labour productivity of about 13%. When using data at the sectoral level it seems that positive cross-sector and negative own-sector externalities are present in manufacturing while financial services display strong positive own-sector effects. The fifth and last chapter entitled "Is the World's Economic Center of Gravity Already in Asia?" computes the world economic, demographic and geographic center of gravity for 1975-2004 and compares them. Based on data for the largest cities in the world and using the physical concept of center of mass, we find that the world's economic center of gravity is still located in Europe, even though there is a clear shift towards Asia. To sum up, this thesis makes three main contributions. First, it provides new estimates of orders of magnitudes for the role of trade in the globalisation and environment debate. Second, it computes reliable and disaggregated elasticities for the effect of density on labour productivity in European regions. Third, it allows us, in a geometrically rigorous way, to track the path of the world's economic center of gravity.

Computer-Aided Business Model Design

There is a lack of dedicated tools for business model design at a strategic level. However, in today's economic world the need to be able to quickly reinvent a company's business model is essential to stay competitive. This research focused on identifying the functionalities that are necessary in a computer-aided design (CAD) tool for the design of business models in a strategic context. Using design science research methodology a series of techniques and prototypes have been designed and evaluated to offer solutions to the problem. The work is a collection of articles which can be grouped into three parts: First establishing the context of how the Business Model Canvas (BMC) is used to design business models and explore the way in which CAD can contribute to the design activity. The second part extends on this by proposing new technics and tools which support elicitation, evaluation (assessment) and evolution of business models design with CAD. This includes features such as multi-color tagging to easily connect elements, rules to validate coherence of business models and features that are adapted to the correct business model proficiency level of its users. A new way to describe and visualize multiple versions of a business model and thereby help in addressing the business model as a dynamic object was also researched. The third part explores extensions to the business model canvas such as an intermediary model which helps IT alignment by connecting business model and enterprise architecture. And a business model pattern for privacy in a mobile environment, using privacy as a key value proposition. The prototyped techniques and proposition for using CAD tools in business model modeling will allow commercial CAD developers to create tools that are better suited to the needs of practitioners.

The health promotion model and rare disease patients : a mixed methods study examining adherence to treatment in men with congenital hypogonadotropic hypogonadism

Rare diseases are typically chronic medical conditions of genetic etiology characterized by low prevalence and high complexity. Patients living with rare diseases face numerous physical, psychosocial and economic challenges that place them in the realm of health disparities. Congenital hypogonadotropic hypogonadism (CHH) is a rare endocrine disorder characterized by absent puberty and infertility. Little is known about the psychosocial impact of CHH on patients or their adherence to available treatments. This project aimed to examine the relationship between illness perceptions, depressive symptoms and adherence to treatment in men with CHH using the nursing-sensitive Health Promotion Model (HPM). A community based participatory research (CBPR) framework was employed as a model for empowering patients and overcoming health inequities. The study design used a sequential, explanatory mixed-methods approach. To reach dispersed CHH men, we used web-based recruitment and data collection (online survey). Subsequently, three patient focus groups were conducted to provide explanatory insights into the online survey (i.e. barriers to adherence, challenges of CHH, and coping/support) The online survey (n=101) revealed that CHH men struggle with adherence and often have long gaps in care (40% >1 year). They experience negative psychosocial consequences because of CHH and exhibit significantly increased rates of depression (p<0.001). Focus group participants (n=26) identified healthcare system, interpersonal, and personal factors as barriers to adherence. Further, CHH impacts quality of life and impedes psychosexual development in these men. The CHH men are active internet users who rely on the web forcrowdsourcing solutions and peer-to-peer support. Moreover, they are receptive to web-based interventions to address unmet health needs. This thesis contributes to nursing knowledge in several ways. First, it demonstrates the utility of the HPM as a valuable theoretical construct for understanding medication adherence and for assessing rare disease patients. Second, these data identify a range of unmet health needs that are targets for patient-centered interventions. Third, leveraging technology (high-tech) effectively extended the reach of nursing care while the CBPR approach and focus groups (high-touch) served as concurrent nursing interventions facilitating patient empowerment in overcoming health disparities. Last, these findings hold promise for developing e-health interventions to bridge identified shortfalls in care and activating patients for enhanced self- care and wellness -- Les maladies rares sont généralement de maladies chroniques d'étiologie génétique caractérisées par une faible prévalence et une haute complexité de traitement. Les patients atteints de maladies rares sont confrontés à de nombreux défis physiques, psychosociaux et économiques qui les placent dans une posture de disparité et d'inégalités en santé. L'hypogonadisme hypogonadotrope congénital (CHH) est un trouble endocrinien rare caractérisé par l'absence de puberté et l'infertilité. On sait peu de choses sur l'impact psychosocial du CHH sur les patients ou leur adhésion aux traitements disponibles. Ce projet vise à examiner la relation entre la perception de la maladie, les symptômes dépressifs et l'observance du traitement chez les hommes souffrant de CHH. Cette étude est modélisée à l'aide du modèle de la Promotion de la santé de Pender (HPM). Le cadre de l'approche communautaire de recherche participative (CBPR) a aussi été utilisé. La conception de l'étude a reposé sur une approche mixte séquentielle. Pour atteindre les hommes souffrant de CHH, un recrutement et une collecte de données ont été organisées électroniquement. Par la suite, trois groupes de discussion ont été menées avec des patients experts impliqués au sein d'organisations reliés aux maladies rares. Ils ont été invités à discuter certains éléments additionnels dont, les obstacles à l'adhésion au traitement, les défis généraux de vivre avec un CHH, et l'adaptation à la maladie en tenant compte du soutien disponible. Le sondage en ligne (n = 101) a révélé que les hommes souffrant de CHH ont souvent de longues périodes en rupture de soins (40% > 1 an). Ils vivent des conséquences psychosociales négatives en raison du CHH et présentent une augmentation significative des taux de dépression (p <0,001). Les participants aux groupes de discussion (n = 26) identifient dans l'ordre, les systèmes de soins de santé, les relations interpersonnelles, et des facteurs personnels comme des obstacles à l'adhésion. En outre, selon les participants, le CHH impacte négativement sur leur qualité de vie générale et entrave leur développement psychosexuel. Les hommes souffrant de CHH se considèrent être des utilisateurs actifs d'internet et comptent sur le web pour trouver des solutions pour trouver des ressources et y recherchent le soutien de leurs pairs (peer-to-peer support). En outre, ils se disent réceptifs à des interventions qui sont basées sur le web pour répondre aux besoins de santé non satisfaits. Cette thèse contribue à la connaissance des soins infirmiers de plusieurs façons. Tout d'abord, elle démontre l'utilité de la HPM comme une construction théorique utile pour comprendre l'adhésion aux traitements et pour l'évaluation des éléments de promotion de santé qui concernent les patients atteints de maladies rares. Deuxièmement, ces données identifient une gamme de besoins de santé non satisfaits qui sont des cibles pour des interventions infirmières centrées sur le patient. Troisièmement, méthodologiquement parlant, cette étude démontre que les méthodes mixtes sont appropriées aux études en soins infirmiers car elles allient les nouvelles technologies qui peuvent effectivement étendre la portée des soins infirmiers (« high-tech »), et l'approche CBPR par des groupes de discussion (« high-touch ») qui ont facilité la compréhension des difficultés que doivent surmonter les hommes souffrant de CHH pour diminuer les disparités en santé et augmenter leur responsabilisation dans la gestion de la maladie rare. Enfin, ces résultats sont prometteurs pour développer des interventions e-santé susceptibles de combler les lacunes dans les soins et l'autonomisation de patients pour une meilleure emprise sur les auto-soins et le bien-être.