Parental Leave and Mothers' Careers: The Relative Importance of Job Protection and Cash Benefits

Job protection and cash benefits are key elements of parental leave (PL) systems. We study how these two policy instruments affect return-to-work and medium-run labour market outcomes of mothers of newborn children. Analysing a series of major PL policy changes in Austria, we find that longer cash benefits lead to a significant delay in return-to-work, particularly so in the period that is job-protected. Prolonged parental leave absence induced by these policy changes does not appear to hurt mothers' labour market outcomes in the medium run. We build a non-stationary model of job search after childbirth to isolate the role of the two policy instruments. The model matches return-to-work and return to same employer profiles under the various factual policy configurations. Counterfactual policy simulations indicate that a system that combines cash with protection dominates other systems in generating time for care immediately after birth while maintaining mothers' medium-run labour market attachment.

War Signals: A Theory of Trade, Trust and Conflict

We construct a dynamic theory of civil conflict hinging on inter-ethnic trust and trade. The model economy is inhabitated by two ethnic groups. Inter-ethnic trade requires imperfectly observed bilateral investments and one group has to form beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since conflict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals that the aggressor has a low propensity to trade. Agents observe the history of conflicts and update their beliefs over time, transmitting them to the next generation. The theory bears a set of testable predictions. First, war is a stochastic process whose frequency depends on the state of endogenous beliefs. Second, the probability of future conflicts increases after each conflict episode. Third, "accidental" conflicts that do not reflect economic fundamentals can lead to a permanent breakdown of trust, plunging a society into a vicious cycle of recurrent conflicts (a war trap). The incidence of conflict can be reduced by policies abating cultural barriers, fostering inter-ethnic trade and human capital, and shifting beliefs. Coercive peace policies such as peacekeeping forces or externally imposed regime changes have instead no persistent effects.

Health and (Other) Asset Holdings

Despite clear evidence of correlations between financial and medical statuses and decisions, most models treat financial and health-related choices separately. This article bridges this gap by proposing a tractable dynamic framework for the joint determination of optimal consumption, portfolio holdings, health investment, and health insurance. We solve for the optimal rules in closed form and capitalize on this tractability to gain a better understanding of the conditions under which separation between financial and health-related decisions is sensible, and of the pathways through which wealth and health determine allocations, welfare and other variables of interest such as expected longevity or the value of health. Furthermore we show that the model is consistent with the observed patterns of individual allocations and provide realistic estimates of the parameters that confirm the relevance of all the main characteristics of the model.

Les vaccins contre le zona : efficacité, sécurité, et rapport coût/bénéfices [Vaccines against Herpes zoster: Effectiveness, safety, and cost/benefit ratio].

CONTEXT: A vaccination against herpes zoster and its complication is available in France since June 2015. Its exact benefit for public health is still controversial and its level of protection is not optimal. All those reasons seem to suggest a low acceptation rate from general practitioners. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness, the safety, and the cost/benefit ratio of the vaccination against herpes zoster in people aged 50 year or over. DOCUMENTARY SOURCE: Systematic review in Medline and PubMed with research by key words: "herpes zoster vaccine", "zoster vaccine" and "post herpetic neuralgia vaccine". SELECTION OF STUDIES: Randomized and observational studies published in English and French language have been selected by two readers. RESULTS: On 1886 articles identified, 62 studies were included in this systematic review of which 21 randomized trials, 21 observational studies, and 17 medico-economic studies concerned the unadjuvanted vaccine. Considered studies showed an effectiveness of 50% against herpes zoster and 60% on post-herpetic neuralgia incidence of the unadjuvanted vaccine. Five randomized controlled studies were identified for the adjuvanted vaccine. The overall effectiveness of this vaccine was > 90% whatever the age of subjects including those over age 70 and 80. The medico-economic studies conducted in many countries have shown that vaccine policies were beneficial in individuals aged 60 years or over. LIMITATION OF THE WORK: Most of data of effectiveness, and tolerance result from 2 large controlled studies only (SPS and ZEST) for the unadjuvanted vaccine and only one for the adjuvanted vaccine. CONCLUSION: Despite controversy and few uncertainties, the vaccine significantly reduces herpes zoster and its complication incidence. In terms of public health objectives, it reduces the burden of the disease and has a positive medico-economic impact. Preliminary data concerning the adjuvanted vaccine, whilst very promising, are still too limited. Up to now, no group of people with particularly high risk of herpes zoster-related complication who will beneficiate the most of the vaccination has been identified yet and only an age criteria has been considered for the recommendation.

Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale: some case studies

Every year, debris flows cause huge damage in mountainous areas. Due to population pressure in hazardous zones, the socio-economic impact is much higher than in the past. Therefore, the development of indicative susceptibility hazard maps is of primary importance, particularly in developing countries. However, the complexity of the phenomenon and the variability of local controlling factors limit the use of processbased models for a first assessment. A debris flow model has been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using digital elevation model (DEM) with a GIS-based approach.. The automatic identification of source areas and the estimation of debris flow spreading, based on GIS tools, provide a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. One of the main advantages of this model is its workability. In fact, everything is open to the user, from the data choice to the selection of the algorithms and their parameters. The Flow-R model was tested in three different contexts: two in Switzerland and one in Pakistan, for indicative susceptibility hazard mapping. It was shown that the quality of the DEM is the most important parameter to obtain reliable results for propagation, but also to identify the potential debris flows sources.

From diabetes to heart disease : studies on dyslipidemia-induced B-cell dysfunction, immunomodulation in heart transplantation, and cardiac stem cell therapy

Diabetes is a growing epidemic with devastating human, social and economic impact. It is associated with significant changes in plasma concentrations of lipoproteins. We tested the hypothesis that lipoproteins modulate the function and survival of insulin-secreting cells. We first detected the presence of several receptors that participate in the binding and processing of plasma lipoproteins and confirmed the internalization of fluorescent LDL and HDL particles in insulin-secreting β-cells. Purified human VLDL and LDL particles reduced insulin mRNA levels and β-cell proliferation, and induced a dose-dependent increase in the rate of apoptosis. In mice lacking the LDL receptor, islets showed a dramatic decrease in LDL uptake and were partially resistant to apoptosis caused by LDL. VLDL-induced apoptosis of β-cells involved caspase-3 cleavage and reduction in levels of the c-Jun N-terminal (JNK) Interacting Protein-1 (IB1/JIP-1). In contrast, the pro-apoptotic signaling of lipoproteins was antagonized by HDL particles or by a small peptide inhibitor of JNK. The protective effects of HDL were mediated, in part, by inhibition of caspase-3 cleavage and activation of the protein kinase Akt/PKB. Heart disease is a major cause of morbidity and mortality among patients with diabetes. When heart failure is refractory to medical therapy and cannot be improved by electrical resynchronization, percutaneous angioplasty or coronary graft bypass surgery, heart transplantation remains a "last resort" therapy. Nevertheless, it is limited by the side effects of immunosuppressive drugs and chronic rejection. Localized expression of immunomodulatory genes in the donor organ can create a state of immune privilege within the graft, and was performed in rodent hearts by infecting cells with an adenovirus encoding indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase (IDO), the rate-limiting enzyme in the catabolism of tryptophane. Other strategies are based on genetic manipulation of dendritic cells (DCs) with immunosuppressive genes and in vitro exposure of DCs to agents that prevent their maturation by inflammatory cytokines. Finally, we used 5-bromo-2'-deoxyuridine, which is incorporated into DNA and diluted with cell division, to identify long-term label retaining cells in the adult rodent heart. The majority of these cells were positive for the stem cell antigen-1 (Sca-1) and negative for the endothelial precursor marker CD31. They formed cardiospheres in vitro and showed differentiation potential into mesenchymal cell lineages. When cultured in cardiomyogenic differentiation medium, they expressed cardiac-specific genes. Taken together, these data provide evidence of slow-cycling stem cells in the rodent heart. Chronic shortage of donor organs opens the way to cardiac stem cell therapy in humans, although the long way from animal experimentation to routine therapy in patients may still take several years. - Du diabète de type 2 à la maladie coronarienne : trois études sur les dysfonctions de la cellule sécrétrice d'insuline induites par les dyslipidémies, l'immunomodulation dans la transplantation cardiaque, et la thérapie par des cellules souches myocardiques. Le diabète de type 2 a pris les dimensions d'une épidémie, avec des conséquences sociales et économiques dont nous n'avons pas encore pris toute la mesure. La maladie s'accompagne souvent d'une dyslipidémie caractérisée par une hypertriglycéridémie, des taux abaissés de cholestérol HDL, et des concentrations de cholestérol LDL à la limite supérieure de ce qui est considéré comme acceptable. L'hypothèse à la base de cette étude est qu'une modification des taux plasmatiques de lipoprotéines pourrait avoir une influence directe sur la cellule β sécrétrice d'insuline en modifiant sa fonction, sa durée de vie et son taux de régénération. Dans un premier temps, nous avons mis en évidence, sur la cellule β, la présence de plusieurs récepteurs impliqués dans la captation des lipoprotéines. Nous avons confirmé la fonctionnalité de ces récepteurs en suivant l'internalisation de LDL et de HDL marqués. En présence de VLDL ou de LDL humains, nous avons observé une diminution de la transcription du gène de l'insuline, une prolifération cellulaire réduite, et une augmentation de l'apoptose, toutes fonctions de la dose et du temps d'exposition. L'apoptose induite par les VLDL passe par une activation de la caspase-3 et une réduction du taux de la protéine IB1/JIP-1 (Islet Brain1/JNK Interacting Protein 1), dont une mutation est associée à une forme monogénique de diabète de type 2. Par opposition, les HDL, ainsi que des peptides inhibiteurs de JNK, sont capables de contrer la cascade pro-apoptotique déclenchée, respectivement, par les LDL et les VLDL. Ces effets protecteurs comprennent l'inhibition du clivage de la caspase-3 et l'activation de la protéine kinase Akt/PKB. En conclusion, les lipoprotéines sont des éléments clés de la survie de la cellule β, et pourraient contribuer au dysfonctionnement observé dans le pancréas endocrine au cours du développement du diabète. La maladie cardiaque, et plus particulièrement la maladie coronarienne, est une cause majeure de morbidité et de mortalité chez les patients atteints de diabète. Plusieurs stratégies sont utilisées quotidiennement pour pallier les atteintes cardiaques: traitements médicamenteux, électromécaniques par resynchronisation électrique, ou communément appelés « interventionnels » lorsqu'ils font appel à l'angioplastie percutanée. La revascularisation du myocarde par des pontages coronariens donne également de très bons résultats dans certaines situations. Il existe toutefois des cas où plus aucune de ces approches n'est suffisante. La transplantation cardiaque est alors la thérapie de choix pour un nombre restreint de patients. La thérapie génique, en permettant l'expression locale de gènes immunomodulateurs dans l'organe greffé, permet de diminuer les réactions de rejet inhérentes à toute transplantation (à l'exception de celles réalisées entre deux jumeaux homozygotes). Nous avons appliqué chez des rongeurs cette stratégie en infectant le coeur greffé avec un adénovirus codant pour l'enzyme indoleamine 2,3-dioxygénase (IDO), une enzyme clé dans le catabolisme du tryptophane. Nous avons procédé de manière identique in vitro en surexprimant IDO dans les cellules dendritiques, dont le rôle est de présenter les antigènes aux lymphocytes Τ du receveur. Des expériences similaires ont été réalisées en traitant les cellules dendritiques avec des substances capables de prévenir, en partie du moins, leur maturation par des agents pro-inflammatoires. Finalement, nous avons exploré une stratégie utilisée couramment en hématologie, mais qui n'en est encore qu'à ses débuts au niveau cardiaque : la thérapie par des cellules souches. En traitant des rongeurs avec un marqueur qui s'incorpore dans l'ADN nucléaire, le 5-bromo- 2'-deoxyuridine, nous avons identifié une population cellulaire se divisant rarement, positive en grande partie pour l'antigène embryonnaire Sca-1 et négative pour le marqueur endothélial CD31. En culture, ces cellules forment des cardiosphères et sont capables de se différencier dans les principaux types tissulaires mésenchymateux. Dans un milieu de differentiation adéquat, ces cellules expriment des gènes cardiomyocytaires. En résumé, ces données confirment la présence chez le rongeur d'une population résidente de précurseurs myocardiques. En addenda, on trouvera deux publications relatives à la cellule β productrice d'insuline. Le premier article démontre le rôle essentiel joué par la complexine dans l'insulino-sécrétion, tandis que le second souligne l'importance de la protéine IB1/JIP-1 dans la protection contre l'apoptose de la cellule β induite par certaines cytokines.

Value and prices in Russian economic thought (1890-1920)

The subject "Value and prices in Russian economic thought (1890--1920)" should evoke several names and debates in the reader's mind. For a long time, Western scholars have been aware that the Russian economists Tugan-Baranovsky and Bortkiewicz were active participants to the Marxian transformation problem, that the mathematical models of Dmitriev prefigured forthcoming neoricardian based models, and that many Russian economists were either supporting the Marxian labour theory of value or being revisionists. Moreover, these ideas were preparing the ground for Soviet planning. Russian scholars additionally knew that this period was the time of introduction of marginalism in Russia, and that, during this period, economists were active in thinking the relation of ethics with economic theory. All these issues are well covered in the existing literature. But there is a big gap that this dissertation intends to fill. The existing literature handles these pieces separately, although they are part of a single, more general, history. All these issues (the labour theory of value, marginalism, the Marxian transformation problem, planning, ethics, mathematical economics) were part of what this dissertation calls here "The Russian synthesis". The Russian synthesis (in the singular) designates here all the attempts at synthesis between classical political economy and marginalism, between labour theory of value and marginal utility, and between value and prices that occurred in Russian economic thought between 1890 and 1920, and that embraces the whole set of issues evoked above. This dissertation has the ambition of being the first comprehensive history of that Russian synthesis. In this, this contribution is unique. It has always surprised the author of the present dissertation that such a book has not yet been written. Several good reasons, both in terms of scarce availability of sources and of ideological restrictions, may accounted for a reasonable delay of several decades. But it is now urgent to remedy the situation before the protagonists of the Russian synthesis are definitely classified under the wrong labels in the pantheon of economic thought. To accomplish this task, it has seldom be sufficient to gather together the various existing studies on aspects of this story. It as been necessary to return to the primary sources in the Russian language. The most important part of the primary literature has never been translated, and in the last years only some of them have been republished in Russian. Therefore, most translations from the Russian have been made by the author of the present dissertation. The secondary literature has been surveyed in the languages that are familiar (Russian, English and French) or almost familiar (German) to the present author, and which are hopefully the most pertinent to the present investigation. Besides, and in order to increase the acquaintance with the text, which was the objective of all this, some archival sources were used. The analysis consists of careful chronological studies of the authors' writings and their evolution in their historical and intellectual context. As a consequence, the dissertation brings new authors to the foreground - Shaposhnikov and Yurovsky - who were traditionally confined to the substitutes' bench, because they only superficially touched the domains quoted above. In the Russian synthesis however, they played an important part of the story. As a side effect, some authors that used to play in the foreground - Dmitriev and Bortkiewicz - are relegated to the background, but are not forgotten. Besides, the dissertation refreshes the views on authors already known, such as Ziber and, especially, Tugan-Baranovsky. The ultimate objective of this dissertation is to change the opinion that one could have on "value and prices in Russian economic thought", by setting the Russian synthesis at the centre of the debates.

Analysis, modelling and visualisation of spatiotemporal data for urban studies

The proportion of population living in or around cites is more important than ever. Urban sprawl and car dependence have taken over the pedestrian-friendly compact city. Environmental problems like air pollution, land waste or noise, and health problems are the result of this still continuing process. The urban planners have to find solutions to these complex problems, and at the same time insure the economic performance of the city and its surroundings. At the same time, an increasing quantity of socio-economic and environmental data is acquired. In order to get a better understanding of the processes and phenomena taking place in the complex urban environment, these data should be analysed. Numerous methods for modelling and simulating such a system exist and are still under development and can be exploited by the urban geographers for improving our understanding of the urban metabolism. Modern and innovative visualisation techniques help in communicating the results of such models and simulations. This thesis covers several methods for analysis, modelling, simulation and visualisation of problems related to urban geography. The analysis of high dimensional socio-economic data using artificial neural network techniques, especially self-organising maps, is showed using two examples at different scales. The problem of spatiotemporal modelling and data representation is treated and some possible solutions are shown. The simulation of urban dynamics and more specifically the traffic due to commuting to work is illustrated using multi-agent micro-simulation techniques. A section on visualisation methods presents cartograms for transforming the geographic space into a feature space, and the distance circle map, a centre-based map representation particularly useful for urban agglomerations. Some issues on the importance of scale in urban analysis and clustering of urban phenomena are exposed. A new approach on how to define urban areas at different scales is developed, and the link with percolation theory established. Fractal statistics, especially the lacunarity measure, and scale laws are used for characterising urban clusters. In a last section, the population evolution is modelled using a model close to the well-established gravity model. The work covers quite a wide range of methods useful in urban geography. Methods should still be developed further and at the same time find their way into the daily work and decision process of urban planners. La part de personnes vivant dans une région urbaine est plus élevé que jamais et continue à croître. L'étalement urbain et la dépendance automobile ont supplanté la ville compacte adaptée aux piétons. La pollution de l'air, le gaspillage du sol, le bruit, et des problèmes de santé pour les habitants en sont la conséquence. Les urbanistes doivent trouver, ensemble avec toute la société, des solutions à ces problèmes complexes. En même temps, il faut assurer la performance économique de la ville et de sa région. Actuellement, une quantité grandissante de données socio-économiques et environnementales est récoltée. Pour mieux comprendre les processus et phénomènes du système complexe "ville", ces données doivent être traitées et analysées. Des nombreuses méthodes pour modéliser et simuler un tel système existent et sont continuellement en développement. Elles peuvent être exploitées par le géographe urbain pour améliorer sa connaissance du métabolisme urbain. Des techniques modernes et innovatrices de visualisation aident dans la communication des résultats de tels modèles et simulations. Cette thèse décrit plusieurs méthodes permettant d'analyser, de modéliser, de simuler et de visualiser des phénomènes urbains. L'analyse de données socio-économiques à très haute dimension à l'aide de réseaux de neurones artificiels, notamment des cartes auto-organisatrices, est montré à travers deux exemples aux échelles différentes. Le problème de modélisation spatio-temporelle et de représentation des données est discuté et quelques ébauches de solutions esquissées. La simulation de la dynamique urbaine, et plus spécifiquement du trafic automobile engendré par les pendulaires est illustrée à l'aide d'une simulation multi-agents. Une section sur les méthodes de visualisation montre des cartes en anamorphoses permettant de transformer l'espace géographique en espace fonctionnel. Un autre type de carte, les cartes circulaires, est présenté. Ce type de carte est particulièrement utile pour les agglomérations urbaines. Quelques questions liées à l'importance de l'échelle dans l'analyse urbaine sont également discutées. Une nouvelle approche pour définir des clusters urbains à des échelles différentes est développée, et le lien avec la théorie de la percolation est établi. Des statistiques fractales, notamment la lacunarité, sont utilisées pour caractériser ces clusters urbains. L'évolution de la population est modélisée à l'aide d'un modèle proche du modèle gravitaire bien connu. Le travail couvre une large panoplie de méthodes utiles en géographie urbaine. Toutefois, il est toujours nécessaire de développer plus loin ces méthodes et en même temps, elles doivent trouver leur chemin dans la vie quotidienne des urbanistes et planificateurs.

Ecological-economic optimization of biodiversity conservation under climate change

Substantial investment in climate change research has led to dire predictions of the impacts and risks to biodiversity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report(1) cites 28,586 studies demonstrating significant biological changes in terrestrial systems(2). Already high extinction rates, driven primarily by habitat loss, are predicted to increase under climate change(3-6). Yet there is little specific advice or precedent in the literature to guide climate adaptation investment for conserving biodiversity within realistic economic constraints(7). Here we present a systematic ecological and economic analysis of a climate adaptation problem in one of the world's most species-rich and threatened ecosystems: the South African fynbos. We discover a counterintuitive optimal investment strategy that switches twice between options as the available adaptation budget increases. We demonstrate that optimal investment is nonlinearly dependent on available resources, making the choice of how much to invest as important as determining where to invest and what actions to take. Our study emphasizes the importance of a sound analytical framework for prioritizing adaptation investments(4). Integrating ecological predictions in an economic decision framework will help support complex choices between adaptation options under severe uncertainty. Our prioritization method can be applied at any scale to minimize species loss and to evaluate the robustness of decisions to uncertainty about key assumptions.

The economic burden of alcohol dependence in europe.

AIMS: To determine the economic burden pertaining to alcohol dependence in Europe. METHODS: Database searching was combined with grey literature searching to identify costs and resource use in Europe relating to alcohol dependence as defined by the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV) or the World Health Organisation's International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10). Searches combined MeSH headings for both economic terms and terms pertaining to alcohol dependence. Relevant outcomes included direct healthcare costs and indirect societal costs. Main resource use outcomes included hospitalization and drug costs. RESULTS: Compared with the number of studies of the burden of alcohol use disorders in general, relatively few focussed specifically on alcohol dependence. Twenty-two studies of variable quality were eligible for inclusion. The direct costs of alcohol dependence in Europe were substantial, the treatment costs for a single alcohol-dependent patient lying within the range euro1591-euro7702 per hospitalization and the annual total direct costs accounting for 0.04-0.31% of an individual country's gross domestic product (GDP). These costs were driven primarily by hospitalization; in contrast, the annual drug costs for alcohol dependence were low. The indirect costs were more substantial than the direct costs, accounting for up to 0.64% of GDP per country annually. Alcohol dependence may be more costly in terms of health costs per patient than alcohol abuse. CONCLUSIONS: This review confirms that alcohol dependence represents a significant burden for European healthcare systems and society. Difficulties in comparing across cost-of-illness studies in this disease area, however, prevent specific estimation of the economic burden.

Health care renunciation for economic reasons in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Most societies elaborate ways to contain increasing health care expenditures. In Switzerland out of pocket payments and cuts in the catalogue of reimbursed services are used as cost-containment measures. The aims of the study were to estimate the extent of health care renunciation for economic reasons and to identify associated factors. METHODS: A population-based cross-sectional survey (2008-2009) of a representative sample in the Canton of Geneva, Switzerland. Health care underuse, income level categories (<CHF 3000/month, 3000-4999, 5000-6999, 7000-9499, 9500-13 000, >13 000), education, occupation, insurance status and cardiovascular comorbidities were collected using self-rated questionnaires. RESULTS: 765 men and 814 women aged 35-74 years participated. 14.5% (229/1579) (95%CI 12.7-16.2) renounced health care for economic reasons. Among those who renounced (N = 229), 74% renounced dental care, 37% physician consultation (22% specialist, 15% general practitioner), 26% health devices, 13% medication, and 5% surgery. Income was negatively correlated with renouncement (r = -0.18, p <.0001). Each decrease in income level category provided a 48% increased risk of renouncing health care for economic reasons (OR 1.48, 1.31-1.65). This association remained when dental care was excluded from the definition of health care renunciation. CONCLUSIONS: In a region of Switzerland with a high cost of living, such as Geneva, socioeconomic status may influence the use of the health care system, and renunciation for economic reasons was not uncommon. More than 30% of the lowest income group renounced health care for economical reasons in the previous year. Health care underuse and renunciation may worsen the health status of a substantial part of society.

Waste management policies for industrial symbiosis development: case studies in European countries

Industrial symbiosis (IS) emerged as a self-organizing business strategy among firms that are willing to cooperate to improve their economic and environmental performance. The adoption of such cooperative strategies relates to increasing costs of waste management, most of which are driven by policy and legislative requirements. Development of IS depends on an enabling context of social, informational, technological, economical and political factors. The power to influence this context varies among the agents involved such as the government, businesses or coordinating entities. Governmental intervention, as manifested through policies, could influence a wider range of factors; and we believe this is an area which is under-researched. This paper aims to critically appraise the waste policy interventions from supra-national to sub-national levels of government. A case study methodology has been applied to four European countries i.e. Denmark, the UK, Portugal and Switzerland, in which IS emerged or is being fostered. The findings suggest that there are commonalities in policy instruments that may have led to an IS enabling context. The paper concludes with lessons learnt and recommendations on shaping the policy context for IS development.