Indicators for the total number of melanocytic naevi : an adjunct for screening campaigns. Observational study on 292 patients.

BACKGROUND: The presence of multiple melanocytic naevi is a strong risk factor for melanoma. Use of the whole body naevus count to identify at-risk patients is impractical. OBJECTIVES: To (i) identify a valid anatomical predictor of total naevus count; (ii) determine the number of naevi that most accurately predict total naevus count above 25, 50 and 100; and (iii) evaluate determinants of multiple melanocytic naevi and atypical naevi. METHODS: Clinical data from 292 consecutive Spanish patients consulting for skin lesions requiring debriding were collected throughout 2009 and 2010. Correlations between site-specific and whole body naevus counts were analysed. Cut-offs to predict total naevus counts were determined using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: The studied population was young (median age 31 years, interquartile range 28-43). The naevus count on the right arm correlated best with the total nevus count (R(2) 0·80 for men, 0·86 for women). Presence of at least five naevi on the right arm was the strongest determinant of a total naevus count above 50 [odds ratio (OR) 34·4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 13·9-85·0] and of having at least one atypical naevus (OR 5·7, 95% CI 2·4-13·5). Cut-off values of 6, 8 and 11 naevi on the right arm best predicted total naevus count above 25, 50 and 100, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the arm as a practical and reliable site to estimate the total naevus count when screening or phenotyping large populations. Threshold values for the number of naevi on the arm are proposed to help identify patients for melanoma screening.

Pre-dispersal predation effect on seed packaging strategies and seed viability.

An increased understanding of intraspecific seed packaging (i.e. seed size/number strategy) variation across different environments may improve current knowledge of the ecological forces that drive seed evolution in plants. In particular, pre-dispersal seed predation may influence seed packaging strategies, triggering a reduction of the resources allocated to undamaged seeds within the preyed fruits. Assessing plant reactions to pre-dispersal seed predation is crucial to a better understanding of predation effects, but the response of plants to arthropod attacks remains unexplored. We have assessed the effect of cone predation on the size and viability of undamaged seeds in populations of Juniperus thurifera with contrasting seed packaging strategies, namely, North African populations with single-large-seeded cones and South European populations with multi-small-seeded cones. Our results show that the incidence of predation was lower on the single-large-seeded African cones than on the multi-small-seeded European ones. Seeds from non-preyed cones were also larger and had a higher germination success than uneaten seeds from preyed cones, but only in populations with multi-seeded cones and in cones attacked by Trisetacus sp., suggesting a differential plastic response to predation. It is possible that pre-dispersal seed predation has been a strong selective pressure in European populations with high cone predation rates, being a process which maintains multi-small-seeded cones and empty seeds as a strategy to save some seeds from predation. Conversely, pre-dispersal predation might not have a strong effect in the African populations with single-large-seeded cones characterized by seed germination and filling rates higher than those in the European populations. Our results indicate that differences in pre-dispersal seed predators and predation levels may affect both selection on and intraspecific variation in seed packaging.