Spatial predictions of land-use transitions and associated threats to biodiversity: the case of forest regrowth in mountain grasslands

Question Can we predict where forest regrowth caused by abandonment of agricultural activities is likely to occur? Can we assess how it may conflict with grassland diversity hotspots? Location Western Swiss Alps (4003210m a.s.l.). Methods We used statistical models to predict the location of land abandonment by farmers that is followed by forest regrowth in semi-natural grasslands of the Western Swiss Alps. Six modelling methods (GAM, GBM, GLM, RF, MDA, MARS) allowing binomial distribution were tested on two successive transitions occurring between three time periods. Models were calibrated using data on land-use change occurring between 1979 and 1992 as response, and environmental, accessibility and socio-economic variables as predictors, and these were validated for their capacity to predict the changes observed from 1992 to 2004. Projected probabilities of land-use change from an ensemble forecast of the six models were combined with a model of plant species richness based on a field inventory, allowing identification of critical grassland areas for the preservation of biodiversity. Results Models calibrated over the first land-use transition period predicted the second transition with reasonable accuracy. Forest regrowth occurs where cultivation costs are high and yield potential is low, i.e. on steeper slopes and at higher elevations. Overlaying species richness with land-use change predictions, we identified priority areas for the management and conservation of biodiversity at intermediate elevations. Conclusions Combining land-use change and biodiversity projections, we propose applied management measures for targeted/identified locations to limit the loss of biodiversity that could otherwise occur through loss of open habitats. The same approach could be applied to other types of land-use changes occurring in other ecosystems.

When information can save lives: the duty to warn relatives about sudden cardiac death and environmental risks.

In certain cases of sudden death, forensic experts may discover during an investigation or autopsy that family members of the deceased are also at risk of harm-from genetic disease, for instance. But do they have a duty to warn them? Looking at similar duties of physicians and researchers to warn third parties of risk suggests they do.

Human-to-bovine jump of Staphylococcus aureus CC8 is associated with the loss of a β-hemolysin converting prophage and the acquisition of a new staphylococcal cassette chromosome.

Staphylococcus aureus can colonize and infect both humans and animals, but isolates from both hosts tend to belong to different lineages. Our recent finding of bovine-adapted S. aureus showing close genetic relationship to the human S. aureus clonal complex 8 (CC8) allowed us to examine the genetic basis of host adaptation in this particular CC. Using total chromosome microarrays, we compared the genetic makeup of 14 CC8 isolates obtained from cows suffering subclinical mastitis, with nine CC8 isolates from colonized or infected human patients, and nine S. aureus isolates belonging to typical bovine CCs. CC8 isolates were found to segregate in a unique group, different from the typical bovine CCs. Within this CC8 group, human and bovine isolates further segregated into three subgroups, among which two contained a mix of human and bovine isolates, and one contained only bovine isolates. This distribution into specific clusters and subclusters reflected major differences in the S. aureus content of mobile genetic elements (MGEs). Indeed, while the mixed human-bovine clusters carried commonly human-associated β-hemolysin converting prophages, the bovine-only isolates were devoid of such prophages but harbored an additional new non-mec staphylococcal cassette chromosome (SCC) unique to bovine CC8 isolates. This composite cassette carried a gene coding for a new LPXTG-surface protein sharing homologies with a protein found in the environmental bacterium Geobacillus thermoglucosidans. Thus, in contrast to human CC8 isolates, the bovine-only CC8 group was associated with the combined loss of β-hemolysin converting prophages and gain of a new SCC probably acquired in the animal environment. Remaining questions are whether the new LPXTG-protein plays a role in bovine colonization or infection, and whether the new SCC could further acquire antibiotic-resistance genes and carry them back to human.

Genomic Adaptations to the Loss of a Conserved Bacterial DNA Methyltransferase.

UNLABELLED: CcrM is an orphan DNA methyltransferase nearly universally conserved in a vast group of Alphaproteobacteria. In Caulobacter crescentus, it controls the expression of key genes involved in the regulation of the cell cycle and cell division. Here, we demonstrate, using an experimental evolution approach, that C. crescentus can significantly compensate, through easily accessible genetic changes like point mutations, the severe loss in fitness due to the absence of CcrM, quickly improving its growth rate and cell morphology in rich medium. By analyzing the compensatory mutations genome-wide in 12 clones sampled from independent ΔccrM populations evolved for ~300 generations, we demonstrated that each of the twelve clones carried at least one mutation that potentially stimulated ftsZ expression, suggesting that the low intracellular levels of FtsZ are the major burden of ΔccrM mutants. In addition, we demonstrate that the phosphoenolpyruvate-carbohydrate phosphotransfer system (PTS) actually modulates ftsZ and mipZ transcription, uncovering a previously unsuspected link between metabolic regulation and cell division in Alphaproteobacteria. We present evidence that point mutations found in genes encoding proteins of the PTS provide the strongest fitness advantage to ΔccrM cells cultivated in rich medium despite being disadvantageous in minimal medium. This environmental sign epistasis might prevent such mutations from getting fixed under changing natural conditions, adding a plausible explanation for the broad conservation of CcrM. IMPORTANCE: In bacteria, DNA methylation has a variety of functions, including the control of DNA replication and/or gene expression. The cell cycle-regulated DNA methyltransferase CcrM modulates the transcription of many genes and is critical for fitness in Caulobacter crescentus. Here, we used an original experimental evolution approach to determine which of its many targets make CcrM so important physiologically. We show that populations lacking CcrM evolve quickly, accumulating an excess of mutations affecting, directly or indirectly, the expression of the ftsZ cell division gene. This finding suggests that the most critical function of CcrM in C. crescentus is to promote cell division by enhancing FtsZ intracellular levels. During this work, we also discovered an unexpected link between metabolic regulation and cell division that might extend to other Alphaproteobacteria.

Hypoxia/hypoglycemia preconditioning prevents the loss of functional electrical activity in organotypic slice cultures.

In cerebral ischemic preconditioning (IPC), a first sublethal ischemia increases the resistance of neurons to a subsequent severe ischemia. Despite numerous studies, the mechanisms are not yet fully understood. Our goal is to develop an in vitro model of IPC on hippocampal organotypic slice cultures. Instead of anoxia, we chose to apply varying degrees of hypoxia that allows us various levels of insult graded from mild to severe. Cultures are exposed to combined oxygen and glucose deprivation (OGD) of varying intensities, ranging from mild to severe, assessing both the electrical activity and cell death. IPC was accomplished by exposure to the mildest ischemia condition (10% of O2 for 15 min) 24 h before the severe deprivation (5% of O2 for 30 min). Interestingly, IPC not only prevented delayed ischemic cell death 6 days after insult but also the transient loss of evoked potential response. The major interest and advantage of this system over both the acute slice preparation and primary cell cultures is the ability to simultaneously measure the delayed neuronal damage and neuronal function.

Application of a roughness-length representation to parameterize energy loss in 3-D numerical simulations of large rivers

Recent technological advances in remote sensing have enabled investigation of the morphodynamics and hydrodynamics of large rivers. However, measuring topography and flow in these very large rivers is time consuming and thus often constrains the spatial resolution and reach-length scales that can be monitored. Similar constraints exist for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) studies of large rivers, requiring maximization of mesh-or grid-cell dimensions and implying a reduction in the representation of bedform-roughness elements that are of the order of a model grid cell or less, even if they are represented in available topographic data. These ``subgrid'' elements must be parameterized, and this paper applies and considers the impact of roughness-length treatments that include the effect of bed roughness due to ``unmeasured'' topography. CFD predictions were found to be sensitive to the roughness-length specification. Model optimization was based on acoustic Doppler current profiler measurements and estimates of the water surface slope for a variety of roughness lengths. This proved difficult as the metrics used to assess optimal model performance diverged due to the effects of large bedforms that are not well parameterized in roughness-length treatments. However, the general spatial flow patterns are effectively predicted by the model. Changes in roughness length were shown to have a major impact upon flow routing at the channel scale. The results also indicate an absence of secondary flow circulation cells in the reached studied, and suggest simpler two-dimensional models may have great utility in the investigation of flow within large rivers. Citation: Sandbach, S. D. et al. (2012), Application of a roughness-length representation to parameterize energy loss in 3-D numerical simulations of large rivers, Water Resour. Res., 48, W12501, doi: 10.1029/2011WR011284.

The loss of circadian PAR bZip transcription factors results in epilepsy.

DBP (albumin D-site-binding protein), HLF (hepatic leukemia factor), and TEF (thyrotroph embryonic factor) are the three members of the PAR bZip (proline and acidic amino acid-rich basic leucine zipper) transcription factor family. All three of these transcriptional regulatory proteins accumulate with robust circadian rhythms in tissues with high amplitudes of clock gene expression, such as the suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN) and the liver. However, they are expressed at nearly invariable levels in most brain regions, in which clock gene expression only cycles with low amplitude. Here we show that mice deficient for all three PAR bZip proteins are highly susceptible to generalized spontaneous and audiogenic epilepsies that frequently are lethal. Transcriptome profiling revealed pyridoxal kinase (Pdxk) as a target gene of PAR bZip proteins in both liver and brain. Pyridoxal kinase converts vitamin B6 derivatives into pyridoxal phosphate (PLP), the coenzyme of many enzymes involved in amino acid and neurotransmitter metabolism. PAR bZip-deficient mice show decreased brain levels of PLP, serotonin, and dopamine, and such changes have previously been reported to cause epilepsies in other systems. Hence, the expression of some clock-controlled genes, such as Pdxk, may have to remain within narrow limits in the brain. This could explain why the circadian oscillator has evolved to generate only low-amplitude cycles in most brain regions.

The loss of GLUT2 expression in the pancreatic beta-cells of diabetic db/db mice is associated with an impaired DNA-binding activity of islet-specific trans-acting factors.

GLUT2 expression is reduced in the pancreatic beta-cells of several diabetic animals. The transcriptional control of the gene in beta-cells involves at least two islet-specific DNA-binding proteins, GTIIa and PDX-1, which also transactivates the insulin, somatostatin and glucokinase genes. In this report, we assessed the DNA-binding activities of GTIIa and PDX-1 to their respective cis-elements of the GLUT2 promoter using nuclear extracts prepared from pancreatic islets of 12 week old db/db diabetic mice. We show that the decreased GLUT2 mRNA expression correlates with a decrease of the GTIIa DNA-binding activity, whereas the PDX-1 binding activity is increased. In these diabetic animals, insulin mRNA expression remains normal. The adjunction of dexamethasone to isolated pancreatic islets, a treatment previously shown to decrease PDX-1 expression in the insulin-secreting HIT-T15 cells, has no effect on the GTIIa and PDX-1 DNA-binding activities. These data suggest that the decreased activity of GTIIa, in contrast to PDX-1, may be a major initial step in the development of the beta-cell dysfunction in this model of diabetes.

Thyroid hormone reduces the loss of axotomized sensory neurons in dorsal root ganglia after sciatic nerve transection in adult rat.

We have shown that a local administration of thyroid hormones (T3) at the level of transected rat sciatic nerve induced a significant increase in the number of regenerated axons. To address the question of whether local administration of T3 rescues the axotomized sensory neurons from death, in the present study we estimated the total number of surviving neurons per dorsal root ganglion (DRG) in three experimental group animals. Forty-five days following rat sciatic nerve transection, the lumbar (L4 and L5) DRG were removed from PBS-control, T3-treated as well as from unoperated rats, and serial sections (1 microm) were cut. The physical dissector method was used to estimate the total number of sensory neurons in the DRGs. Our results revealed that in PBS-control rats transection of sciatic nerve leads to a significant (P < 0.001) decrease in the mean number of sensory neurons (8743.8 +/- 748.6) compared with the number of neurons in nontransected ganglion (mean 13,293.7 +/- 1368.4). However, administration of T3 immediately after sciatic nerve transection rescues a great number of axotomized neurons so that their mean neuron number (12,045.8 +/- 929.8) is not significantly different from the mean number of neurons in the nontransected ganglion. In addition, the volume of ganglia showed a similar tendency. These results suggest that T3 rescues a high number of axotomized sensory neurons from death and allows these cells to grow new axons. We believe that the relative preservation of neurons is important in considering future therapeutic approaches of human peripheral nerve lesion and sensory neuropathy.

TCRep 3D: an automated in silico approach to study the structural properties of TCR repertoires.

TCRep 3D is an automated systematic approach for TCR-peptide-MHC class I structure prediction, based on homology and ab initio modeling. It has been considerably generalized from former studies to be applicable to large repertoires of TCR. First, the location of the complementary determining regions of the target sequences are automatically identified by a sequence alignment strategy against a database of TCR Vα and Vβ chains. A structure-based alignment ensures automated identification of CDR3 loops. The CDR are then modeled in the environment of the complex, in an ab initio approach based on a simulated annealing protocol. During this step, dihedral restraints are applied to drive the CDR1 and CDR2 loops towards their canonical conformations, described by Al-Lazikani et. al. We developed a new automated algorithm that determines additional restraints to iteratively converge towards TCR conformations making frequent hydrogen bonds with the pMHC. We demonstrated that our approach outperforms popular scoring methods (Anolea, Dope and Modeller) in predicting relevant CDR conformations. Finally, this modeling approach has been successfully applied to experimentally determined sequences of TCR that recognize the NY-ESO-1 cancer testis antigen. This analysis revealed a mechanism of selection of TCR through the presence of a single conserved amino acid in all CDR3β sequences. The important structural modifications predicted in silico and the associated dramatic loss of experimental binding affinity upon mutation of this amino acid show the good correspondence between the predicted structures and their biological activities. To our knowledge, this is the first systematic approach that was developed for large TCR repertoire structural modeling.

Pediatric CT: how to compare the Present DRL Values? : 12.10

Purpose: To determine dose thresholds, in term of CTDIvol, where subtle anatomical structures of pediatric CT images becomes no more detectable and compare them to the most recent Reference Dose Levels (DRL) proposed in the UK, Germany and Switzerland. Materials and methods: A GE LightSpeed-Ultra scanner (MSCT 8 slices) was used to perform chest and abdomen acquisitions on 8 patients (age range 2 to 16 years old) to provide a set of gold standard images. Dose reductions were then simulated by introducing image noise on raw data to provide simulated CT images with CTDIvol ranging from 2 to 22 mGy. All images were reviewed and scored independently by four experienced radiologists using the VGA methodology (Visual Grading Analysis) to determine the dose threshold where a significant loss of normal anatomy conspicuity appeared. Data were analyzed with ANOVA and Tukey HSD tests, a p >0.05 was considered to be significant. Results: No significant difference in VGA scoring appeared for CTDIvol leading to image noise levels lower than 10 and 25 HU for respectively abdominal and chest acquisitions. These data can thus be used to set the AEC (automatic exposure control) system of units having similar noise properties than the GE LightSpeed-Ultra used in this study. The present DRLs proposed for pediatric CT acquisitions are compatible with an excellent image quality level. Conclusion: The differences of DRL values proposed in Europe for pediatric acquisitions are marginal and assure a very good image quality level. The results of this study allow to further optimize the acquisition protocol by giving Noise Index value to set the AEC device.

Effects on blood pressure and cardiovascular risk of variations in patients' adherence to prescribed antihypertensive drugs: role of duration of drug action.

P>Aim: To determine the effects of imperfect adherence (i.e. occasionally missing prescribed doses), and the influence of rate of loss of antihypertensive effect during treatment interruption, on the predicted clinical effectiveness of antihypertensive drugs in reducing mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.Method:The effects of imperfect adherence to antihypertensive treatment regimens were estimated using published patterns of missed doses, and taking into account the rate of loss of antihypertensive effect when doses are missed (loss of BP reduction in mmHg/day; the off-rate), which varies between drugs. Outcome measures were the predicted mean SBP reduction and CVD risk, determined from the Framingham Risk Equation for CVD.Results:In patients taking 75% of prescribed doses (typical of clinical practice), only long-acting drugs with an off-rate of similar to 1 mmHg/day were predicted to maintain almost the full mean SBP-lowering effect throughout the modelled period. In such patients, using shorter-acting drugs (e.g. an off-rate of similar to 5-6 mmHg/day) was predicted to lead to a clinically relevant loss of mean SBP reduction of > 2 mmHg. This change also influenced the predicted CVD risk reduction; in patients with a baseline 10-year CVD risk of 27.0% and who were taking 75% of prescribed doses, a difference in off-rate from 1 to 5 mmHg/day led to a predicted 0.5% absolute increase in 10-year CVD risk.Conclusions:In patients who occasionally miss doses of antihypertensives, modest differences in the rate of loss of antihypertensive effect following treatment interruption may have a clinically relevant impact on SBP reduction and CVD risk. While clinicians must make every effort to counsel and encourage each of their patients to adhere to their prescribed medication, it may also be prudent to prescribe drugs with a low off-rate to mitigate the potential consequences of missing doses.

Manipulating sex ratio to increase population growth: the example of the Lesser Kestrel

Small or decreasing populations call for emergency actions like, for example, captive breeding programs. Such programs aim at rapidly increasing population sizes in order to reduce the loss of genetic variability and to avoid possible Allee effects. The Lesser Kestrel Falco naumanni is one of the species that is currently supported in several captive breeding programs at various locations. Here, we model the demographic and genetic consequences of potential management strategies that are based on offspring sex ratio manipulation. Increased population growth could be achieved by manipulating female conditions and/or male attractiveness in the captive breeders and consequently shifting the offspring sex ratio towards more female offspring, which are then used for reintroduction. Fragmenting populations into wild-breeding and captive-breeding demes and manipulating population sex ratio both immediately increase the inbreeding coefficient in the next generation (i.e. decrease N-e) but may, in the long term, reduce the loss of genetic variability if population growth is restricted by the number of females. We use the Lesser Kestrel and the wealth of information that is available on this species to predict the long-term consequences of various kinds of sex-ratio manipulation. We find that, in our example and possibly in many other cases, a sex-ratio manipulation that seems realistic could have a beneficial effect on the captive breeding program. However, the possible long-term costs and benefits of such measures need to be carefully optimized.

Serum hyperglycosylated human chorionic gonadotropin to predict the gestational outcome in in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection pregnancies.

Hyperglycosylated human chorionic gonadotropin (H-hCG) is secreted by the placenta in early pregnancy. Decreased H-hCG levels have been associated with abortion in spontaneous pregnancy. We retrospectively measured H-hCG and dimeric hCG in the sera of 87 in vitro fertilization patients obtained in the 3 weeks following embryo transfer and set the results in relation to pregnancy outcome. H-hCG and dimeric hCG were correlated (r(2) = 0.89), and were significantly decreased in biochemical pregnancy (2 microg/l and 18 IU/l, respectively) compared to early pregnancy loss (22 microg/l and 331 IU/l) and ongoing pregnancy (32 microg/l and 353 IU/l). Only H-hCG tended to discriminate between these last two groups.

Using life strategies to explore the vulnerability of ecosystem services to invasion by alien plants

Invasive plants can have different effects of ecosystem functioning and on the provision of ecosystem services, from strongly deleterious impacts to positive effects. The nature and intensity of such effects will depend on the service and ecosystem being considered, but also on features of life strategies of invaders that influence their invasiveness as well as their influence of key processes of receiving ecosystems. To address the combined effect of these various factors we developed a robust and efficient methodological framework that allows to identify areas of possible conflict between ecosystem services and alien invasive plants, considering interactions between landscape invasibility and species invasiveness. Our framework combines the statistical robustness of multi-model inference, efficient techniques to map ecosystem services, and life strategies as a functional link between invasion, functional changes and potential provision of services by invaded ecosystems. The framework was applied to a test region in Portugal, for which we could successfully predict the current patterns of plant invasion, of ecosystem service provision, and finally of probable conflict (expressing concern for negative impacts, and value for positive impacts on services) between alien species richness (total and per plant life strategy) and the potential provision of selected services. Potential conflicts were identified for all combinations of plant strategy and ecosystem service, with an emphasis for those concerning conflicts with carbon sequestration, water regulation and wood production. Lower levels of conflict were obtained between invasive plant strategies and the habitat for biodiversity supporting service. The added value of the proposed framework in the context of landscape management and planning is discussed in perspective of anticipation of conflicts, mitigation of negative impacts, and potentiation of positive effects of plant invasions on ecosystems and their services.