Evaluating the influence of spatial uncertainty in locality points for species distributional modeling

1. Species distribution modelling is used increasingly in both applied and theoretical research to predict how species are distributed and to understand attributes of species' environmental requirements. In species distribution modelling, various statistical methods are used that combine species occurrence data with environmental spatial data layers to predict the suitability of any site for that species. While the number of data sharing initiatives involving species' occurrences in the scientific community has increased dramatically over the past few years, various data quality and methodological concerns related to using these data for species distribution modelling have not been addressed adequately. 2. We evaluated how uncertainty in georeferences and associated locational error in occurrences influence species distribution modelling using two treatments: (1) a control treatment where models were calibrated with original, accurate data and (2) an error treatment where data were first degraded spatially to simulate locational error. To incorporate error into the coordinates, we moved each coordinate with a random number drawn from the normal distribution with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of 5 km. We evaluated the influence of error on the performance of 10 commonly used distributional modelling techniques applied to 40 species in four distinct geographical regions. 3. Locational error in occurrences reduced model performance in three of these regions; relatively accurate predictions of species distributions were possible for most species, even with degraded occurrences. Two species distribution modelling techniques, boosted regression trees and maximum entropy, were the best performing models in the face of locational errors. The results obtained with boosted regression trees were only slightly degraded by errors in location, and the results obtained with the maximum entropy approach were not affected by such errors. 4. Synthesis and applications. To use the vast array of occurrence data that exists currently for research and management relating to the geographical ranges of species, modellers need to know the influence of locational error on model quality and whether some modelling techniques are particularly robust to error. We show that certain modelling techniques are particularly robust to a moderate level of locational error and that useful predictions of species distributions can be made even when occurrence data include some error.

Multicenter trial of neo-adjuvant chemotherapy followed by extrapleural pneumonectomy in malignant pleural mesothelioma.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this multicenter trial was to prospectively evaluate neo-adjuvant chemotherapy followed by extrapleural pneumonectomy (EPP) and radiotherapy, including quality of life as outcome. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Eligible patients had malignant pleural mesothelioma of all histological types, World Health Organization performance status of zero to two and clinical stage T1-T3, N0-2, M0 disease considered completely resectable. Neo-adjuvant chemotherapy consisted of three cycles of cisplatin and gemcitabine followed by EPP. Postoperative radiotherapy was considered for all patients. RESULTS: In all, 58 of 61 patients completed three cycles of neo-adjuvant chemotherapy. Forty-five patients (74%) underwent EPP and in 37 patients (61%) the resection was complete. Postoperative radiotherapy was initiated in 36 patients. The median survival of all patients was 19.8 months [95% confidence interval (CI) 14.6-24.5]. For the 45 patients undergoing EPP, the median survival was 23 months (95% CI 16.6-32.9). Psychological distress showed minor variations over time with distress above the cut-off score indicating no morbidity with 82% (N = 36) at baseline and 76% (N = 26) at 3 months after surgery (P = 0.5). CONCLUSIONS: The observed rate of operability is promising. A median survival of 23 months for patients undergoing EPP compares favourably with the survival reported from single center studies of upfront surgery. This approach was not associated with an increase in psychological distress.

On the problematic of reserving and stochastic loss models

Abstract Traditionally, the common reserving methods used by the non-life actuaries are based on the assumption that future claims are going to behave in the same way as they did in the past. There are two main sources of variability in the processus of development of the claims: the variability of the speed with which the claims are settled and the variability between the severity of the claims from different accident years. High changes in these processes will generate distortions in the estimation of the claims reserves. The main objective of this thesis is to provide an indicator which firstly identifies and quantifies these two influences and secondly to determine which model is adequate for a specific situation. Two stochastic models were analysed and the predictive distributions of the future claims were obtained. The main advantage of the stochastic models is that they provide measures of variability of the reserves estimates. The first model (PDM) combines one conjugate family Dirichlet - Multinomial with the Poisson distribution. The second model (NBDM) improves the first one by combining two conjugate families Poisson -Gamma (for distribution of the ultimate amounts) and Dirichlet Multinomial (for distribution of the incremental claims payments). It was found that the second model allows to find the speed variability in the reporting process and development of the claims severity as function of two above mentioned distributions' parameters. These are the shape parameter of the Gamma distribution and the Dirichlet parameter. Depending on the relation between them we can decide on the adequacy of the claims reserve estimation method. The parameters have been estimated by the Methods of Moments and Maximum Likelihood. The results were tested using chosen simulation data and then using real data originating from the three lines of business: Property/Casualty, General Liability, and Accident Insurance. These data include different developments and specificities. The outcome of the thesis shows that when the Dirichlet parameter is greater than the shape parameter of the Gamma, resulting in a model with positive correlation between the past and future claims payments, suggests the Chain-Ladder method as appropriate for the claims reserve estimation. In terms of claims reserves, if the cumulated payments are high the positive correlation will imply high expectations for the future payments resulting in high claims reserves estimates. The negative correlation appears when the Dirichlet parameter is lower than the shape parameter of the Gamma, meaning low expected future payments for the same high observed cumulated payments. This corresponds to the situation when claims are reported rapidly and fewer claims remain expected subsequently. The extreme case appears in the situation when all claims are reported at the same time leading to expectations for the future payments of zero or equal to the aggregated amount of the ultimate paid claims. For this latter case, the Chain-Ladder is not recommended.

Les Neurosciences au Tribunal: de la responsabilité à la dangerosité

In recent years, an explosion of interest in neuroscience has led to the development of "Neuro-law," a new multidisciplinary field of knowledge whose aim is to examine the impact and role of neuroscientific findings in legal proceedings. Neuroscientific evidence is increasingly being used in US and European courts in criminal trials, as part of psychiatric testimony, nourishing the debate about the legal implications of brain research in psychiatric-legal settings. During these proceedings, the role of forensic psychiatrists is crucial. In most criminal justice systems, their mission consists in accomplishing two basic tasks: assessing the degree of responsibility of the offender and evaluating their future dangerousness. In the first part of our research, we aim to examine the impact of Neuroscientific evidence in the assessment of criminal responsibility, a key concept of law. An initial jurisprudential research leads to conclude that there are significant difficulties and limitations in using neuroscience for the assessment of criminal responsibility. In the current socio-legal context, responsibility assessments are progressively being weakened, whereas dangerousness assessments gain increasing importance in the field of forensic psychiatry. In the second part of our research we concentrate on the impact of using neuroscience for the assessment of dangerousness. We argue that in the current policy era of zero tolerance, judges, confronted with the pressure to ensure public security, may tend to interpret neuroscientific knowledge and data as an objective and reliable way of evaluating one's dangerousness and risk of reoffending, rather than their responsibility. This tendency could be encouraged by a utilitarian approach to punishment, advanced by some recent neuroscientific research which puts into question the existence of free will and responsibility and argues for a rejection of the retributive theory of punishment. Although this shift away from punishment aimed at retribution in favor of a consequentialist approach to criminal law is advanced by some authors as a more progressive and humane approach, we believe that it could lead to the instrumentalisation of neuroscience in the interest of public safety, which can run against the proper exercise of justice and civil liberties of the offenders. By advancing a criminal law regime animated by the consequentialist aim of avoiding social harms through rehabilitation, neuroscience promotes a return to a therapeutical approach to crime which can have serious impact on the kind and the length of sentences imposed on the offenders; if neuroscientific data are interpreted as evidence of dangerousness, rather than responsibility, it is highly likely that judges impose heavier sentences, or/and security measures (in civil law systems), which can be indeterminate in length. Errors and epistemic traps of past criminological movements trying to explain the manifestation of a violent and deviant behavior on a biological and deterministic basis stress the need for caution concerning the use of modern neuroscientific methods in criminal proceedings.

Assessing small non-zero perceptions of chance: The case of H1N1 (swine) flu risks

Feelings of invulnerability, seen in judgments of 0% risk, can reflect misunderstandings of risk and risk behaviors, suggesting increased need for risk communication. However, judgments of 0% risk may be given by individuals who feel invulnerable, and by individuals who are rounding from small non-zero probabilities. We examined the effect of allowing participants to give more precise responses in the 0-1% range on the validity of reported probability judgments. Participants assessed probabilities for getting H1N1 influenza and dying from it conditional on infection, using a 0-100% visual linear scale. Those responding in the 0-1% range received a follow-up question with more options in that range. This two-step procedure reduced the use of 0% and increased the resolution of responses in the 0-1% range. Moreover, revised probability responses improved predictions of attitudes and self-reported behaviors. Hence, our two-step procedure allows for more precise and more valid measurement of perceived invulnerability. [Authors]

Predictors of temporary and permanent work disability in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: results of the swiss inflammatory bowel disease cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Inflammatory bowel disease can decrease the quality of life and induce work disability. We sought to (1) identify and quantify the predictors of disease-specific work disability in patients with inflammatory bowel disease and (2) assess the suitability of using cross-sectional data to predict future outcomes, using the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study data. METHODS: A total of 1187 patients were enrolled and followed up for an average of 13 months. Predictors included patient and disease characteristics and drug utilization. Potential predictors were identified through an expert panel and published literature. We estimated adjusted effect estimates with 95% confidence intervals using logistic and zero-inflated Poisson regression. RESULTS: Overall, 699 (58.9%) experienced Crohn's disease and 488 (41.1%) had ulcerative colitis. Most important predictors for temporary work disability in patients with Crohn's disease included gender, disease duration, disease activity, C-reactive protein level, smoking, depressive symptoms, fistulas, extraintestinal manifestations, and the use of immunosuppressants/steroids. Temporary work disability in patients with ulcerative colitis was associated with age, disease duration, disease activity, and the use of steroids/antibiotics. In all patients, disease activity emerged as the only predictor of permanent work disability. Comparing data at enrollment versus follow-up yielded substantial differences regarding disability and predictors, with follow-up data showing greater predictor effects. CONCLUSIONS: We identified predictors of work disability in patients with Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis. Our findings can help in forecasting these disease courses and guide the choice of appropriate measures to prevent adverse outcomes. Comparing cross-sectional and longitudinal data showed that the conduction of cohort studies is inevitable for the examination of disability.

On the transition of genetic differentiation from isolation to panmixia: What we can learn from GST and D.

Population genetic differentiation characterizes the repartition of alleles among populations. It is commonly thought that genetic differentiation measures, such as GST and D, should be near zero when allele frequencies are close to their expected value in panmictic populations, and close to one when they are close to their expected value in isolated populations. To analyse those properties, we first derive analytically a reference function f of known parameters that describes how important features of genetic differentiation (e.g. gene diversity, proportion of private alleles, frequency of the most common allele) are close to their expected panmictic and isolation value. We find that the behaviour of function f differs according to three distinct mutation regimes defined by the scaled mutation rate and the number of populations. Then, we compare GST and D to f, and demonstrate that their signal of differentiation strongly depends on the mutation regime. In particular, we show that D captures well the variations of genetic diversity when mutation is weak, otherwise it overestimates it when panmixia is not met. GST detects population differentiation when mutation is intermediate but has a low sensitivity to the variations of genetic diversity when mutation is weak. When mutation is strong the domain of sensitivity of both measures are altered. Finally, we also point out the importance of the number of populations on genetic differentiation measures, and provide recommendations for the use of GST and D.

Comparison of time-lapse GPR data collected under natural and forced infiltration conditions to estimate vadose zone hydraulic parameters

Time-lapse crosshole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data, collected while infiltration occurs, can provide valuable information regarding the hydraulic properties of the unsaturated zone. In particular, the stochastic inversion of such data provides estimates of parameter uncertainties, which are necessary for hydrological prediction and decision making. Here, we investigate the effect of different infiltration conditions on the stochastic inversion of time-lapse, zero-offset-profile, GPR data. Inversions are performed using a Bayesian Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo methodology. Our results clearly indicate that considering data collected during a forced infiltration test helps to better refine soil hydraulic properties compared to data collected under natural infiltration conditions

Enhancing the vertical resolution of surface georadar data

There are far-reaching conceptual similarities between bi-static surface georadar and post-stack, "zero-offset" seismic reflection data, which is expressed in largely identical processing flows. One important difference is, however, that standard deconvolution algorithms routinely used to enhance the vertical resolution of seismic data are notoriously problematic or even detrimental to the overall signal quality when applied to surface georadar data. We have explored various options for alleviating this problem and have tested them on a geologically well-constrained surface georadar dataset. Standard stochastic and direct deterministic deconvolution approaches proved to be largely unsatisfactory. While least-squares-type deterministic deconvolution showed some promise, the inherent uncertainties involved in estimating the source wavelet introduced some artificial "ringiness". In contrast, we found spectral balancing approaches to be effective, practical and robust means for enhancing the vertical resolution of surface georadar data, particularly, but not exclusively, in the uppermost part of the georadar section, which is notoriously plagued by the interference of the direct air- and groundwaves. For the data considered in this study, it can be argued that band-limited spectral blueing may provide somewhat better results than standard band-limited spectral whitening, particularly in the uppermost part of the section affected by the interference of the air- and groundwaves. Interestingly, this finding is consistent with the fact that the amplitude spectrum resulting from least-squares-type deterministic deconvolution is characterized by a systematic enhancement of higher frequencies at the expense of lower frequencies and hence is blue rather than white. It is also consistent with increasing evidence that spectral "blueness" is a seemingly universal, albeit enigmatic, property of the distribution of reflection coefficients in the Earth. Our results therefore indicate that spectral balancing techniques in general and spectral blueing in particular represent simple, yet effective means of enhancing the vertical resolution of surface georadar data and, in many cases, could turn out to be a preferable alternative to standard deconvolution approaches.

Same wording, distinct concepts? Testing differences between expectancies and motives in a mediation model of alcohol outcomes.

Per definition, alcohol expectancies (after alcohol I expect X), and drinking motives (I drink to achieve X) are conceptually distinct constructs. Theorists have argued that motives mediate the association between expectancies and drinking outcomes. Yet, given the use of different instruments, do these constructs remain distinct when assessment items are matched? The present study tested to what extent motives mediated the link between expectancies and alcohol outcomes when identical items were used, first as expectancies and then as motives. A linear structural equation model was estimated based on a national representative sample of 5,779 alcohol-using students in Switzerland (mean age = 15.2 years). The results showed that expectancies explained up to 38% of the variance in motives. Together with motives, they explained up to 48% of the variance in alcohol outcomes (volume, 5+ drinking, and problems). In 10 of 12 outcomes, there was a significant mediated effect that was often higher than the direct expectancy effect. For coping, the expectancy effect was close to zero, indicating the strongest form of mediation. In only one case (conformity and 5+ drinking), there was a direct expectancy effect but no mediation. To conclude, the study demonstrates that motives are distinct from expectancies even when identical items are used. Motives are more proximally related to different alcohol outcomes, often mediating the effects of expectancies. Consequently, the effectiveness of interventions, particularly those aimed at coping drinkers, should be improved through a shift in focus from expectancies to drinking motives.

Renal responses to three types of renin-angiotensin system blockers in patients with diabetes mellitus on a high-salt diet: a need for higher doses in diabetic patients?

Objective Activation of the renal renin-angiotensin system in patients with diabetes mellitus appears to contribute to the risk of nephropathy. Recently, it has been recognized than an elevation of prorenin in plasma also provides a strong indication of risk of nephropathy. This study was designed to examine renin-angiotensin system control mechanisms in the patient with diabetes mellitus.Methods We enrolled 43 individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus. All individuals were on a high-salt diet to minimize the contribution of the systemic renin-angiotensin system. After an acute exposure to captopril (25 mg), they were randomized to treatment with either irbesartan (300 mg) or aliskiren (300 mg) for 2 weeks.Results All agents acutely lowered blood pressure and plasma aldosterone, and increased renal plasma flow and glomerular filtration rate. Yet, only captopril and aliskiren acutely increased plasma renin and decreased plasma angiotensin II, whereas irbesartan acutely affected neither renin nor angiotensin II. Plasma renin and angiotensin II subsequently did increase upon chronic irbesartan treatment. When given on day 14, irbesartan and aliskiren again induced the above hemodynamic, renal and adrenal effects, yet without significantly changing plasma renin. Irbesartan at that time did not affect plasma angiotensin II, whereas aliskiren lowered it to almost zero.Conclusion The relative resistance of the renal renin response to acute (irbesartan) and chronic (irbesartan and aliskiren) renin-angiotensin system blockade supports the concept of an activated renal renin-angiotensin system in diabetes, particularly at the level of the juxtaglomerular cell, and implies that diabetic patients might require higher doses of renin-angiotensin system blockers to fully suppress the renal renin-angiotensin system. J Hypertens 29: 2454-2461 (C) 2011 Wolters Kluwer Health vertical bar Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Effect of epinephrine on oxygen consumption and delivery during progressive hemorrhage.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether, during hemorrhagic shock, the effect of epinephrine on energy metabolism could be deleterious, by enhancing the oxygen requirement at a given level of oxygen delivery (DO2). DESIGN: Prospective, randomized, control trial. SETTING: Experimental laboratory. SUBJECTS: Two groups of seven mongrel dogs were studied. The epinephrine group received a continuous infusion of epinephrine (1 microgram/min/kg) while the control group received saline. INTERVENTION: Dogs were anesthetized with pentobarbital, and shock was produced by stepwise hemorrhage. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Oxygen consumption (VO2) was continuously measured by the gas exchange technique, while DO2 was independently calculated from cardiac output (measured by thermodilution) and blood oxygen content. A dual-lines regression fit was applied to the DO2 vs. VO2 plot. The intersection of the two regression lines defined the critical value of DO2. Values above critical DO2 belonged to phase 1, while phase 2 occurred below critical DO2. In the control group, VO2 was independent of DO2 during phase 1; VO2 was dependent on DO2 during phase 2. In the epinephrine group, the expected increase in VO2 (+19%) and DO2 (+50%) occurred under normovolemic conditions. During hemorrhage, VO2 immediately decreased, and the slope of phase 1 was significantly (p < .01) different from zero, and was significantly (p < .05) steeper than in the control group (0.025 +/- 0.005 vs. 0.005 +/- 0.010). However, the critical DO2 (8.7 +/- 1.7 vs. 9.7 +/- 2.4 mL/min/kg), the critical VO2 (5.6 +/- 0.5 vs. 5.5 +/- 0.9 mL/min/kg), and the slope of phase 2 (0.487 +/- 0.080 vs. 0.441 +/- 0.130) were not different from control values. CONCLUSIONS: The administration of pharmacologic doses of epinephrine significantly increased VO2 under normovolemic conditions due to the epinephrine-induced thermogenic effect. This effect progressively decreased during hemorrhage. The critical DO2 and the relationship between DO2 and VO2 in the supply-dependent phase of shock were unaffected by epinephrine infusion. These results suggest that during hemorrhagic shock, epinephrine administration did not exert a detrimental effect on the relationship between DO2 and VO2.

Low relatedness among cooperatively breeding workers of the greenhead ant Rhytidoponera metallica

The greenhead ant Rhytidoponera metallica has long been recognized as posing a potential challenge to kin selection theory because it has large queenless colonies where apparently many of the morphological workers are mated and reproducing. However this species has never been studied genetically and important elements of its breeding system and kin structure remain uncertain. We used microsatellite markers to measure the relatedness among nestmates unravel the fine-scale population genetic structure and infer the breeding system of R. metallica. The genetic relatedness among worker nestmates is very low but significantly greater than zero (r = 0.082 +/- 0.015) which demonstrates that nests contain many distantly related breeders. The inbreeding coefficient is very close to and not significantly different from zero indicating random mating and lack of microgeographic genetic differentiation. On average. closely located nests are not more similar genetically than distant nests which is surprising as new colonies form by budding and female dispersal is restricted. Lack of inbreeding and absence of population viscosity indicates high gene flow mediated by males. Overall the genetic pattern detected in R. metallica suggests that a high number of moderately related workers mate with unrelated males from distant nests. This breeding system results in the lowest relatedness among nestmates reported for social insect species where breeders and helpers are not morphologically differentiated. [References: 69]

Der 11. September aus der Sicht eines Schweizer Trauma Fellows in New York [September 11 from the viewpoint of a Swiss trauma fellow in New York]

This is the report of the events of September 11th seen through the eyes of a Swiss Trauma Fellow. This ill-fated day is described by someone who went down to ground zero with other doctors to help and save lives and came back frustrated because there was so little to be done.

Population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modelling of angiotensin receptor blockade in healthy volunteers.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic characteristics of angiotensin II receptor antagonists as a therapeutic class. DESIGN: Population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modelling study. METHODS: The data of 14 phase I studies with 10 different drugs were analysed. A common population pharmacokinetic model (two compartments, mixed zero- and first-order absorption, two metabolite compartments) was applied to the 2685 drug and 900 metabolite concentration measurements. A standard nonlinear mixed effect modelling approach was used to estimate the drug-specific parameters and their variabilities. Similarly, a pharmacodynamic model was applied to the 7360 effect measurements, i.e. the decrease of peak blood pressure response to intravenous angiotensin challenge recorded by finger photoplethysmography. The concentration of drug and metabolite in an effect compartment was assumed to translate into receptor blockade [maximum effect (Emax) model with first-order link]. RESULTS: A general pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) model for angiotensin antagonism in healthy individuals was successfully built up for the 10 drugs studied. Representatives of this class share different pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic profiles. Their effects on blood pressure are dose-dependent, but the time course of the effect varies between the drugs. CONCLUSIONS: The characterisation of PK-PD relationships for these drugs gives the opportunity to optimise therapeutic regimens and to suggest dosage adjustments in specific conditions. Such a model can be used to further refine the use of this class of drugs.