How to assign a likelihood ratio in a footwear mark case: an analysis and discussion in the light of R v T

This article analyses and discusses issues that pertain to the choice of relevant databases for assigning values to the components of evaluative likelihood ratio procedures at source level. Although several formal likelihood ratio developments currently exist, both case practitioners and recipients of expert information (such as judiciary) may be reluctant to consider them as a framework for evaluating scientific evidence in context. The recent ruling R v T and ensuing discussions in many forums provide illustrative examples for this. In particular, it is often felt that likelihood ratio-based reasoning amounts to an application that requires extensive quantitative information along with means for dealing with technicalities related to the algebraic formulation of these approaches. With regard to this objection, this article proposes two distinct discussions. In a first part, it is argued that, from a methodological point of view, there are additional levels of qualitative evaluation that are worth considering prior to focusing on particular numerical probability assignments. Analyses will be proposed that intend to show that, under certain assumptions, relative numerical values, as opposed to absolute values, may be sufficient to characterize a likelihood ratio for practical and pragmatic purposes. The feasibility of such qualitative considerations points out that the availability of hard numerical data is not a necessary requirement for implementing a likelihood ratio approach in practice. It is further argued that, even if numerical evaluations can be made, qualitative considerations may be valuable because they can further the understanding of the logical underpinnings of an assessment. In a second part, the article will draw a parallel to R v T by concentrating on a practical footwear mark case received at the authors' institute. This case will serve the purpose of exemplifying the possible usage of data from various sources in casework and help to discuss the difficulty associated with reconciling the depth of theoretical likelihood ratio developments and limitations in the degree to which these developments can actually be applied in practice.

Difficulties associated with outpatient management of drug abusers by general practitioners. A cross-sectional survey of general practitioners with and without methadone patients in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: In Switzerland, general practitioners (GPs) manage most of the patients receiving methadone maintenance treatment (MMT). METHODS: Using a cross-sectional postal survey of GPs who treat MMT patients and GPs who do not, we studied the difficulties encountered in the out-patient management of drug-addicted patients. We sent a questionnaire to every GP with MMT patients (556) in the French-speaking part of Switzerland (1,757,000 inhabitants). We sent another shorter questionnaire to primary care physicians without MMT patients living in the Swiss Canton of Vaud. RESULTS: The response rate was 63.3%. The highest methadone dose given by GPs to MMT patients averaged 120.4 mg/day. When asked about help they would like to be given, GPs with MMT patients primarily mentioned the importance of receiving adequate fees for the care they provide. Secondly, they mentioned the importance of better training, better knowledge of psychiatric pathologies, and discussion groups on practical cases. GPs without MMT patients refuse to treat these patients mostly for emotional and relational reasons. CONCLUSION: GPs encounter financial, relational and emotional difficulties with MMT patients. They desire better fees for services and better training.

Editorial research and the publication process in biomedicine and health: Report from the Esteve Foundation Discussion Group, December 2012.

Despite the fact that there are more than twenty thousand biomedical journals in the world, research into the work of editors and publication process in biomedical and health care journals is rare. In December 2012, the Esteve Foundation, a non-profit scientific institution that fosters progress in pharmacotherapy by means of scientific communication and discussion organized a discussion group of 7 editors and/or experts in peer review biomedical publishing. They presented findings of past editorial research, discussed the lack of competitive funding schemes and specialized journals for dissemination of editorial research, and reported on the great diversity of misconduct and conflict of interest policies, as well as adherence to reporting guidelines. Furthermore, they reported on the reluctance of editors to investigate allegations of misconduct or increase the level of data sharing in health research. In the end, they concluded that if editors are to remain gatekeepers of scientific knowledge they should reaffirm their focus on the integrity of the scientific record and completeness of the data they publish. Additionally, more research should be undertaken to understand why many journals are not adhering to editorial standards, and what obstacles editors face when engaging in editorial research.

The use of the likelihood ratio for evaluative and investigative purposes in comparative forensic handwriting examination

This paper extends previous research and discussion on the use of multivariate continuous data, which are about to become more prevalent in forensic science. As an illustrative example, attention is drawn here on the area of comparative handwriting examinations. Multivariate continuous data can be obtained in this field by analysing the contour shape of loop characters through Fourier analysis. This methodology, based on existing research in this area, allows one describe in detail the morphology of character contours throughout a set of variables. This paper uses data collected from female and male writers to conduct a comparative analysis of likelihood ratio based evidence assessment procedures in both, evaluative and investigative proceedings. While the use of likelihood ratios in the former situation is now rather well established (typically, in order to discriminate between propositions of authorship of a given individual versus another, unknown individual), focus on the investigative setting still remains rather beyond considerations in practice. This paper seeks to highlight that investigative settings, too, can represent an area of application for which the likelihood ratio can offer a logical support. As an example, the inference of gender of the writer of an incriminated handwritten text is forwarded, analysed and discussed in this paper. The more general viewpoint according to which likelihood ratio analyses can be helpful for investigative proceedings is supported here through various simulations. These offer a characterisation of the robustness of the proposed likelihood ratio methodology.

Pathological gambling and gender

Background and Aims: Gender differences have been reported among pathological gamblers populations. These differences concern variables such as type of gambling (men are more likely engaged in ''strategic gambling'' whereas women prefer ''non-strategic'' gambling), evolution of the gambling problem (faster progression for women) and suicidal behaviours (more attempted suicide by women). The aim of the present study is to investigate the relationship between gender and clinical status in a Swiss sample of treatment seeking pathological gamblers. Method: Prospective descriptive study of 260 new outpatients entering treatment between October 1999 and October 2007 at the Center for Excessive Gambling Studies, Lausanne, Switzerland. Data are issued from standardised medical records. Gender differences were examined (Chi-squares and ANOVAs) on interval between first gambling behaviours and first specialized treatment, interval between pathological gambling onset and first specialized treatment, purpose of consulting, type of gambling (« strategic gambling » vs « nonstrategic gambling ») and suicidality. Results and Discussion: In line with international findings, gender differences were observed on type of gambling, suicidality and interval between pathological gambling onset and first specialized treatment. A tendency emerged on interval between first gambling behaviours and first specialized treatment. As a new finding, we observed a difference on the purpose of consulting, with emotional crisis more reported by women whereas men are more likely to report familial crisis. Gender seems to be relevant in the context of pathological gambling and should be integrated in prevention and clinical strategies.

Improvements in readiness to change and drinking in primary care patients with unhealthy alcohol use: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND: The course of alcohol consumption and cognitive dimensions of behavior change (readiness to change, importance of changing and confidence in ability to change) in primary care patients are not well described. The objective of the study was to determine changes in readiness, importance and confidence after a primary care visit, and 6-month improvements in both drinking and cognitive dimensions of behavior change, in patients with unhealthy alcohol use. METHODS: Prospective cohort study of patients with unhealthy alcohol use visiting primary care physicians, with repeated assessments of readiness, importance, and confidence (visual analogue scale (VAS), score range 1-10 points). Improvements 6 months later were defined as no unhealthy alcohol use or any increase in readiness, importance, or confidence. Regression models accounted for clustering by physician and adjusted for demographics, alcohol consumption and related problems, and discussion with the physician about alcohol. RESULTS: From before to immediately after the primary care physician visit, patients (n = 173) had increases in readiness (mean +1.0 point), importance (+0.2), and confidence (+0.5) (all p < 0.002). In adjusted models, discussion with the physician about alcohol was associated with increased readiness (+0.8, p = 0.04). At 6 months, many participants had improvements in drinking or readiness (62%), drinking or importance (58%), or drinking or confidence (56%). CONCLUSION: Readiness, importance and confidence improve in many patients with unhealthy alcohol use immediately after a primary care visit. Six months after a visit, most patients have improvements in either drinking or these cognitive dimensions of behavior change.

Swallowing difficulties with oral drugs among polypharmacy patients attending community pharmacies.

Background Swallowing difficulties are common and can affect patients' ability to take solid oral dosage forms, thus compromising medication adherence. Strategies developed by patients to overcome such difficulties while taking medicines have seldom been described. Objective To determine prevalence and characteristics of swallowing difficulties among primary care patients attending their community pharmacies; to explore strategies developed by patients to overcome their difficulties, and health professionals' awareness of these problems. Setting Prospective study with a semi-structured questionnaire in random community pharmacies located in two Swiss regions. Method In each pharmacy, an interviewer asked 16 questions to each consecutive patient (18 years and older) with a prescription for at least 3 different solid oral forms. Main outcome measure Quantification of number of patients with swallowing difficulties and detailed description of difficulties. Results Among 122 pharmacies, 59 (48 %) accepted to join the study and 410 patients were enrolled. Thirty-seven patients (9.0 %) reported ongoing swallowing difficulties, while 55 patients (13.4 %) reported past difficulties. For the majority of patients, difficulties occurred at each single dose (83.7 %), with a single medication (59.8 %) and lasted for less than 12 months (53.8 %). Number of tablets was not the main trigger. Swallowing difficulties impaired extremely daily life in 12 % of the patients. Intentional non adherence (23 % of patients) and altering the oral dose formulation were the most common and potentially harmful strategies used by patients to overcome their swallowing difficulties. According to the patients, pharmacists and physicians rarely inquired about their swallowing difficulties. Conclusion We report a fairly high prevalence of swallowing difficulties in polypharmacy patients attending their community pharmacies. Pharmacists have to interview patients on their swallowing difficulties in a more systematic way, support patients in finding solutions and refer them to their physician if necessary to ensure continuity in care.

Principes d'evaluation et de prise en charge des patients agés polymorbides: guide a l'intention des cliniciens [Principles for the assessment and management of polymorbid elderly patients: a guide for clinicians].

Providing care to multimorbid older patients is complex, not only because of the coexistence of multiple chronic conditions, but also because of their frequent intrication with psychological and social problems. This article describes a guide for clinicians to assess and manage multimorbid older patients. This guide was adapted from the work of a group of expert US geriatricians. It proposes seven steps: identification of the main problem; identification of patients' preferences; setting of goals of care; estimation of life expectancy; identification of relevant evidence in the literature; revision of the plan of care; and discussion of the options with the patient. The use of this guide is illustrated by a clinical case.

Hypoglycémie et traitement du diabète de type 2. Le retour à une normoglycémie n'est pas nécessairement la meilleure stratégie thérapeutique [Hypoglycemia and diabetes treatment: the return to normal glucose level is not always the best therapeutic strategy].

Recent clinical trials with type 2 diabetic patients and the quest of normal glyceamic values, have revealed difficulties and limitations. These too normal glyceamic targets corresponding to the physiological standards are associated with very high rate of hypoglycemia and an increase of mortality. A too simplistic view of treatment: "the lowest, the better is in the diabetes" is no longer defensible. The knowledge from complex systems behavior invites us to search targets adapted to a new state of equilibrium due to loss of self-regulation. These targets should not aim the physiological standards but to be adapted to patient's situation. Shared decision-making and consensus are the two pillars of this new strategy supported by the new ADA-EASD guidelines.

"INTERMED": a method to assess health service needs. I. Development and reliability.

The purpose of this paper is to describe the development and to test the reliability of a new method called INTERMED, for health service needs assessment. The INTERMED integrates the biopsychosocial aspects of disease and the relationship between patient and health care system in a comprehensive scheme and reflects an operationalized conceptual approach to case mix or case complexity. The method is developed to enhance interdisciplinary communication between (para-) medical specialists and to provide a method to describe case complexity for clinical, scientific, and educational purposes. First, a feasibility study (N = 21 patients) was conducted which included double scoring and discussion of the results. This led to a version of the instrument on which two interrater reliability studies were performed. In study 1, the INTERMED was double scored for 14 patients admitted to an internal ward by a psychiatrist and an internist on the basis of a joint interview conducted by both. In study 2, on the basis of medical charts, two clinicians separately double scored the INTERMED in 16 patients referred to the outpatient psychiatric consultation service. Averaged over both studies, in 94.2% of all ratings there was no important difference between the raters (more than 1 point difference). As a research interview, it takes about 20 minutes; as part of the whole process of history taking it takes about 15 minutes. In both studies, improvements were suggested by the results. Analyses of study 1 revealed that on most items there was considerable agreement; some items were improved. Also, the reference point for the prognoses was changed so that it reflected both short- and long-term prognoses. Analyses of study 2 showed that in this setting, less agreement between the raters was obtained due to the fact that the raters were less experienced and the scoring procedure was more susceptible to differences. Some improvements--mainly of the anchor points--were specified which may further enhance interrater reliability. The INTERMED proves to be a reliable method for classifying patients' care needs, especially when used by experienced raters scoring by patient interview. It can be a useful tool in assessing patients' care needs, as well as the level of needed adjustment between general and mental health service delivery. The INTERMED is easily applicable in the clinical setting at low time-costs.

Bayesian networks for evaluating forensic DNA profiling evidence: a review and guide to literature

Almost 30 years ago, Bayesian networks (BNs) were developed in the field of artificial intelligence as a framework that should assist researchers and practitioners in applying the theory of probability to inference problems of more substantive size and, thus, to more realistic and practical problems. Since the late 1980s, Bayesian networks have also attracted researchers in forensic science and this tendency has considerably intensified throughout the last decade. This review article provides an overview of the scientific literature that describes research on Bayesian networks as a tool that can be used to study, develop and implement probabilistic procedures for evaluating the probative value of particular items of scientific evidence in forensic science. Primary attention is drawn here to evaluative issues that pertain to forensic DNA profiling evidence because this is one of the main categories of evidence whose assessment has been studied through Bayesian networks. The scope of topics is large and includes almost any aspect that relates to forensic DNA profiling. Typical examples are inference of source (or, 'criminal identification'), relatedness testing, database searching and special trace evidence evaluation (such as mixed DNA stains or stains with low quantities of DNA). The perspective of the review presented here is not exclusively restricted to DNA evidence, but also includes relevant references and discussion on both, the concept of Bayesian networks as well as its general usage in legal sciences as one among several different graphical approaches to evidence evaluation.

Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE): explanation and elaboration.

Much medical research is observational. The reporting of observational studies is often of insufficient quality. Poor reporting hampers the assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of a study and the generalisability of its results. Taking into account empirical evidence and theoretical considerations, a group of methodologists, researchers, and editors developed the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) recommendations to improve the quality of reporting of observational studies. The STROBE Statement consists of a checklist of 22 items, which relate to the title, abstract, introduction, methods, results and discussion sections of articles. Eighteen items are common to cohort studies, case-control studies and cross-sectional studies and four are specific to each of the three study designs. The STROBE Statement provides guidance to authors about how to improve the reporting of observational studies and facilitates critical appraisal and interpretation of studies by reviewers, journal editors and readers. This explanatory and elaboration document is intended to enhance the use, understanding, and dissemination of the STROBE Statement. The meaning and rationale for each checklist item are presented. For each item, one or several published examples and, where possible, references to relevant empirical studies and methodological literature are provided. Examples of useful flow diagrams are also included. The STROBE Statement, this document, and the associated Web site (http://www.strobe-statement.org/) should be helpful resources to improve reporting of observational research.

Relationship Between the Development of the Spinal Canal and the Etiopathogenesis of Lumbar Spinal Stenosis

INTRODUCTION: The presence of a pre-existing narrow spinal canal may have an important place in the ethiopathogenesis of lumbar spinal stenosis. By consequence the study of the development of the spinal canal is crucial. The first goal of this work is to do a comprehensive literature search and to give an essential view on the development of spinal canal and its depending factors studied until now. The second goal is to give some considerations and hypothesize new leads for clinically useful researches. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A bibliographical research was executed using different search engines: PubMed, Google Schoolar ©, Ovid ® and Web Of Science ©. Free sources and avaible from the University of Lausanne (UNIL) and Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois (CHUV) were used. At the end of the bibliographic researches 114 references were found, 85 were free access and just 41 were cited in this work. Most of the found references are in English or in French. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: The spinal canal is principally limited by the vertebrae which have a mesodermal origin. The nervous (ectodermal) tissue significantly influences the growth of the canal. The most important structure participating in the spinal canal growth is the neurocentral synchondrosis in almost the entire vertebral column. The fusion of the half posterior arches seems to have less importance for the canal size. The growth is not homogeneous but, depends on the vertebral level. Timing, rate and growth potentials differ by regions. Especially in the case of the lumbar segment, there is a craniocaudal tendency which entails a greater post-natal catch-up growth for distal vertebrae. Trefoil-shape of the L5 canal is the consequence of a sagittal growth deficiency. The spinal canal shares some developmental characteristics with different structures and systems, especially with the central nervous system. It may be the consequence of the embryological origin. It is supposed that not all the related structures would be affected by a growth impairment because of the different catch-up potentials. Studies found that narrower spinal canals might be related with cardiovascular and gastrointestinal symptoms, lower thymic function, bone mineral content, dental hypoplasia and Harris' lines. Anthropometric correlations found at birth disappear during the pediatric age. All factors which can affect bone and nervous growth might be relevant. Genetic predispositions are the only factors that can never be changed but the real impact is to ascertain. During the antenatal period, all the elements determining a good supply of blood and oxygen may influence the vertebral canal development, for example smoking during pregnancy. Diet is a crucial factor having an impact on both antenatal and postnatal growth. Proteins intake is the only proved dietetic relationship found in the bibliographic research of this work. The mechanical effects due to locomotion changes are unknown. Socioeconomic situation has an impact on several influencing factors and it is difficult to study it owing to numerous bias. CONCLUSIONS: A correct growth of spinal canal is evidently relevant to prevent not-degenerative stenotic conditions. But a "congenital" narrower canal may aggravate degenerative stenosis. This concerns specific groups of patient. If the size of the canal is highly involved in the pathogenesis of common back pains, a hypothetical measure to prevent developmental impairments could have a not- negligible impact on the society. It would be interesting to study more about dietetic necessities for a good spinal canal development. Understanding the relationship between nervous tissues and vertebra it might be useful in identifying what is needed for the ideal development. Genetic importance and the post-natal influences of upright standing on the canal growth remain unsolved questions. All these tracks may have a double purpose: knowing if it is possible to decrease the incidence of narrower spinal canal and consequently finding possible preventive measures. The development of vertebral canal is a complex subject which ranges over a wide variety of fields. The knowledge of this subject is an indispensable tool to understand and hypothesize the influencing factors that might lead to stenotic conditions. Unfortunately, a lack of information makes difficult to have a complete and satisfactory interdisciplinary vision.

Can smaller-scale comprehensive cancer centers provide outstanding care in abdominal and thoracic pediatric solid tumor surgery? Results of a 14-year retrospective single-center analysis.

PURPOSE: Quality of care and its measurement represent a considerable challenge for pediatric smaller-scale comprehensive cancer centers (pSSCC) providing surgical oncology services. It remains unclear whether center size and/or yearly case-flow numbers influence the quality of care, and therefore impact outcomes for this population of patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We performed a 14-year, retrospective, single-center analysis, assessing adherence to treatment protocols and surgical adverse events as quality indicators in abdominal and thoracic pediatric solid tumor surgery. RESULTS: Forty-eight patients, enrolled in a research-associated treatment protocol, underwent 51 cancer-oriented surgical procedures. All the protocols contain precise technical criteria, indications, and instructions for tumor surgery. Overall, compliance with such items was very high, with 997/1,035 items (95 %) meeting protocol requirements. There was no surgical mortality. Twenty-one patients (43 %) had one or more complications, for a total of 34 complications (66 % of procedures). Overall, 85 % of complications were grade 1 or 2 according to Clavien-Dindo classification requiring observation or minor medical treatment. Case-sample and outcome/effectiveness data were comparable to published series. Overall, our data suggest that even with the modest caseload of a pSSCC within a Swiss tertiary academic hospital, compliance with international standards can be very high, and the incidence of adverse events can be kept minimal. CONCLUSION: Open and objective data sharing, and discussion between pSSCCs, will ultimately benefit our patient populations. Our study is an initial step towards the enhancement of critical self-review and quality-of-care measurements in this setting.