Tackling self-selection into treatment and self-selection into the sample biases in VAA research

Self‐selection into treatment and self‐selection into the sample are major concerns of VAA research and need to be controlled for if the aim is to deduce causal effects from VAA use in observational data. This paper focuses on the methodological aspects of VAA research and outlines omnipresent endogeneity issues, partly imposed through unobserved factors that affect both whether individuals chose to use VAAs and their electoral behavior. We promote using Heckman selection models and apply various versions of the model to data from the Swiss electorate and smartvote users in order to see to what extent selection biases interfere with the estimated effects of interest.

Self-selection and risk selection on the Swiss health insurance market

Abstract This thesis presents three empirical studies in the field of health insurance in Switzerland. First we investigate the link between health insurance coverage and health care expenditures. We use claims data for over 60 000 adult individuals covered by a major Swiss Health Insurance Fund, followed for four years; the data show a strong positive correlation between coverage and expenditures. Two methods are developed and estimated in order to separate selection effects (due to individual choice of coverage) and incentive effects ("ex post moral hazard"). The first method uses the comparison between inpatient and outpatient expenditures to identify both effects and we conclude that both selection and incentive effects are significantly present in our data. The second method is based on a structural model of joint demand of health care and health insurance and makes the most of the change in the marginal cost of health care to identify selection and incentive effects. We conclude that the correlation between insurance coverage and health care expenditures may be decomposed into the two effects: 75% may be attributed to selection, and 25 % to incentive effects. Moreover, we estimate that a decrease in the coinsurance rate from 100% to 10% increases the marginal demand for health care by about 90% and from 100% to 0% by about 150%. Secondly, having shown that selection and incentive effects exist in the Swiss health insurance market, we present the consequence of this result in the context of risk adjustment. We show that if individuals choose their insurance coverage in function of their health status (selection effect), the optimal compensations should be function of the se- lection and incentive effects. Therefore, a risk adjustment mechanism which ignores these effects, as it is the case presently in Switzerland, will miss his main goal to eliminate incentives for sickness funds to select risks. Using a simplified model, we show that the optimal compensations have to take into account the distribution of risks through the insurance plans in case of self-selection in order to avoid incentives to select risks.Then, we apply our propositions to Swiss data and propose a simple econometric procedure to control for self-selection in the estimation of the risk adjustment formula in order to compute the optimal compensations.

Evidence-based Economic Policy - Three Essays in Applied Microeconometrics

Over thirty years ago, Leamer (1983) - among many others - expressed doubts about the quality and usefulness of empirical analyses for the economic profession by stating that "hardly anyone takes data analyses seriously. Or perhaps more accurately, hardly anyone takes anyone else's data analyses seriously" (p.37). Improvements in data quality, more robust estimation methods and the evolution of better research designs seem to make that assertion no longer justifiable (see Angrist and Pischke (2010) for a recent response to Leamer's essay). The economic profes- sion and policy makers alike often rely on empirical evidence as a means to investigate policy relevant questions. The approach of using scientifically rigorous and systematic evidence to identify policies and programs that are capable of improving policy-relevant outcomes is known under the increasingly popular notion of evidence-based policy. Evidence-based economic policy often relies on randomized or quasi-natural experiments in order to identify causal effects of policies. These can require relatively strong assumptions or raise concerns of external validity. In the context of this thesis, potential concerns are for example endogeneity of policy reforms with respect to the business cycle in the first chapter, the trade-off between precision and bias in the regression-discontinuity setting in chapter 2 or non-representativeness of the sample due to self-selection in chapter 3. While the identification strategies are very useful to gain insights into the causal effects of specific policy questions, transforming the evidence into concrete policy conclusions can be challenging. Policy develop- ment should therefore rely on the systematic evidence of a whole body of research on a specific policy question rather than on a single analysis. In this sense, this thesis cannot and should not be viewed as a comprehensive analysis of specific policy issues but rather as a first step towards a better understanding of certain aspects of a policy question. The thesis applies new and innovative identification strategies to policy-relevant and topical questions in the fields of labor economics and behavioral environmental economics. Each chapter relies on a different identification strategy. In the first chapter, we employ a difference- in-differences approach to exploit the quasi-experimental change in the entitlement of the max- imum unemployment benefit duration to identify the medium-run effects of reduced benefit durations on post-unemployment outcomes. Shortening benefit duration carries a double- dividend: It generates fiscal benefits without deteriorating the quality of job-matches. On the contrary, shortened benefit durations improve medium-run earnings and employment possibly through containing the negative effects of skill depreciation or stigmatization. While the first chapter provides only indirect evidence on the underlying behavioral channels, in the second chapter I develop a novel approach that allows to learn about the relative impor- tance of the two key margins of job search - reservation wage choice and search effort. In the framework of a standard non-stationary job search model, I show how the exit rate from un- employment can be decomposed in a way that is informative on reservation wage movements over the unemployment spell. The empirical analysis relies on a sharp discontinuity in unem- ployment benefit entitlement, which can be exploited in a regression-discontinuity approach to identify the effects of extended benefit durations on unemployment and survivor functions. I find evidence that calls for an important role of reservation wage choices for job search be- havior. This can have direct implications for the optimal design of unemployment insurance policies. The third chapter - while thematically detached from the other chapters - addresses one of the major policy challenges of the 21st century: climate change and resource consumption. Many governments have recently put energy efficiency on top of their agendas. While pricing instru- ments aimed at regulating the energy demand have often been found to be short-lived and difficult to enforce politically, the focus of energy conservation programs has shifted towards behavioral approaches - such as provision of information or social norm feedback. The third chapter describes a randomized controlled field experiment in which we discuss the effective- ness of different types of feedback on residential electricity consumption. We find that detailed and real-time feedback caused persistent electricity reductions on the order of 3 to 5 % of daily electricity consumption. Also social norm information can generate substantial electricity sav- ings when designed appropriately. The findings suggest that behavioral approaches constitute effective and relatively cheap way of improving residential energy-efficiency.

HACEK infective endocarditis: characteristics and outcomes from a large, multi-national cohort.

The HACEK organisms (Haemophilus species, Aggregatibacter species, Cardiobacterium hominis, Eikenella corrodens, and Kingella species) are rare causes of infective endocarditis (IE). The objective of this study is to describe the clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients with HACEK endocarditis (HE) in a large multi-national cohort. Patients hospitalized with definite or possible infective endocarditis by the International Collaboration on Endocarditis Prospective Cohort Study in 64 hospitals from 28 countries were included and characteristics of HE patients compared with IE due to other pathogens. Of 5591 patients enrolled, 77 (1.4%) had HE. HE was associated with a younger age (47 vs. 61 years; p<0.001), a higher prevalence of immunologic/vascular manifestations (32% vs. 20%; p<0.008) and stroke (25% vs. 17% p = 0.05) but a lower prevalence of congestive heart failure (15% vs. 30%; p = 0.004), death in-hospital (4% vs. 18%; p = 0.001) or after 1 year follow-up (6% vs. 20%; p = 0.01) than IE due to other pathogens (n = 5514). On multivariable analysis, stroke was associated with mitral valve vegetations (OR 3.60; CI 1.34-9.65; p<0.01) and younger age (OR 0.62; CI 0.49-0.90; p<0.01). The overall outcome of HE was excellent with the in-hospital mortality (4%) significantly better than for non-HE (18%; p<0.001). Prosthetic valve endocarditis was more common in HE (35%) than non-HE (24%). The outcome of prosthetic valve and native valve HE was excellent whether treated medically or with surgery. Current treatment is very successful for the management of both native valve prosthetic valve HE but further studies are needed to determine why HE has a predilection for younger people and to cause stroke. The small number of patients and observational design limit inferences on treatment strategies. Self selection of study sites limits epidemiological inferences.

Daily smoking as a marker of weight control practices among female adolescents

Purpose: There is evidence indicating that adolescent females smoke as a way to control weight. The aim of our research is to assess whether daily smoking is a marker for weight control practices among adolescent females. Methods: Data were drawn from the 2002 Swiss Multicenter Adolescent Survey on Health (SMASH02) data base, a survey including 7,548 [3,838 females] in-school adolescents aged 16-20 years in Switzerland. Among females self-reporting BMI (N _ 3,761), two groups were drawn: daily smokers (DS, N _ 1,273) included all those smoking at least 1 cigarette/day and never smokers (NS, N _ 1,888) included all those having never smoked. Former (N _ 177) and occasional (N _ 423) smokers were not included. Groups were compared on weight control practices (being on a diet, self-induced vomiting, use of doctor-prescribed or over-the-counter appetite suppressors) controlling for possible confounding variables (age, BMI, feeling fat, body image, use of other substances, depression, sport practice, academic track and perceived advanced puberty). Analyses were performed with STATA 9. Bivariate analyses are presented as point-prevalence and multivariate analysis (using logistic regression) are presented as adjusted odds ratio (AOR) and [95% confidence interval]. Results: In the bivariate analysis, DS females were significantly more likely (p _ 0.001) than NS to be on a diet (DS: 33.2%, NS: 22.2%), to self-induce vomiting (DS: 9.0%, NS: 3.3%), and to use doctor prescribed (DS: 2.3%, NS: 0.9%) or over-the-counter (DS: 3.2%, NS: 1.2%) appetite suppressors. In the multivariate analysis, DS females were more likely than NS to be on a diet (AOR: 1.40 [1.17/1.68]), to self-induce vomiting (AOR: 2.07 [1.45/2.97]), and to use doctor-prescribed appetite suppressors (AOR: 1.99 [1.00/ 3.96]). Conclusions: Weight control practices are more frequent among female daily smokers than among never smokers. This finding seems to confirm cigarette smoking as a way to control weight among adolescent females. Health professionals should inquire adolescent female smokers about weight control practices, and this association must be kept in mind when discussing tobacco cessation options with adolescent females. Sources of Support: The SMASH02 survey was funded by the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health and the participating cantons.

Distal and proximal influences on the use of business and moral frames in responsible decisions

We empirically contribute to the debate on business education in building on a decision frame perspective of decision making in corporate responsibility settings. Business schools have been accused to teach amoral theories, leading their students to behave less morally and engendering corporate responsibility scandals. Research has also pointed toward self-selection: business students would differ from non-business students before entering business school. We examine the role of socioeconomic status, core self-evaluations in this regard. Further, we investigate the belief in a free market as a distal influence triggering a business frame, and moral intensity as a proximal influence triggering a moral frame on responsible decision making by business and non-business students. Cross-sectional data obtained from 566 students on two decision making scenarios mostly supported our hypotheses. Socioeconomic status but not core self-evaluations explain the belief in a free market, and had indirect effects on the likelihood to make a less responsible decision. Importantly, the relationship between business studies and the belief in a free market remained significant after accounting for these variables. Our study thus contributes to the socialization and self-selection arguments. We discuss theoretical and practical implications for research on decision frames and for business education, respectively.

Thymic selection generates a large T cell pool recognizing a self-peptide in humans.

The low frequency of self-peptide-specific T cells in the human preimmune repertoire has so far precluded their direct evaluation. Here, we report an unexpected high frequency of T cells specific for the self-antigen Melan-A/MART-1 in CD8 single-positive thymocytes from human histocompatibility leukocyte antigen-A2 healthy individuals, which is maintained in the peripheral blood of newborns and adults. Postthymic replicative history of Melan-A/MART-1-specific CD8 T cells was independently assessed by quantifying T cell receptor excision circles and telomere length ex vivo. We provide direct evidence that the large T cell pool specific for the self-antigen Melan-A/MART-1 is mostly generated by thymic output of a high number of precursors. This represents the only known naive self-peptide-specific T cell repertoire directly accessible in humans.

Prevalent role of TCR alpha-chain in the selection of the preimmune repertoire specific for a human tumor-associated self-antigen.

The specificity of recognition of pMHC complexes by T lymphocytes is determined by the V regions of the TCR alpha- and beta-chains. Recent experimental evidence has suggested that Ag-specific TCR repertoires may exhibit a more V alpha- than V beta-restricted usage. Whether V alpha usage is narrowed during immune responses to Ag or if, on the contrary, restricted V alpha usage is already defined at the early stages of TCR repertoire selection, however, has remained unexplored. Here, we analyzed V and CDR3 TCR regions of single circulating naive T cells specifically detected ex vivo and isolated with HLA-A2/melan-A peptide multimers. Similarly to what was previously observed for melan-A-specific Ag-experienced T cells, we found a relatively wide V beta usage, but a preferential V alpha 2.1 usage. Restricted V alpha 2.1 usage was also found among single CD8(+) A2/melan-A multimer(+) thymocytes, indicating that V alpha-restricted selection takes place in the thymus. V alpha 2.1 usage, however, was independent from functional avidity of Ag recognition. Thus, interaction of the pMHC complex with selected V alpha-chains contributes to set the broad Ag specificity, as underlined by preferential binding of A2/melan-A multimers to V alpha 2.1-bearing TCRs, whereas functional outcomes result from the sum of these with other interactions between pMHC complex and TCR.

Autoreactive T cells that bypass negative selection are not tolerant and respond to self-antigen stimulation during infection

Le répertoire cellulaire Τ a pour but d'être tolérant aux antigènes du soi afin d'éviter l'induction de maladies autoimmunes. C'est pourquoi les lymphocytes Τ autoréactifs sont éliminés dans le thymus lors de leur développement par le processus de sélection négative. La plupart des recherches étudient les lymphocytes Τ de haute avidité. Ces lymphocytes Τ de haute avidité sont très sensibles et réagissent fortement à un antigène du soi. En conséquence, ces cellules induisent le développement de maladies autoimmunes lorsqu'elles ciblent des organes exprimant l'antigène du soi. Plusieurs études ont montré que les lymphocytes Τ qui réagissent faiblement aux antigènes spécifiques à un tissu, nommé lymphocytes Τ de faible avidité, peuvent contourner les mécanismes de tolérance centrale et périphérique. J'ai utilisé des souris Rip-mOva qui expriment l'Ovalbumine comme antigène du soi spécifique à un tissu. Dans ces souris transgéniques Rip-mOva, les lymphocytes Τ de faible avidité survivent à la sélection négative. Une fois stimulés à la périphérie, ces lymphocytes Τ CD8+ de faible avidité ont la capacité d'infiltrer les organes qui expriment l'antigène du soi chez les souris Rip-mOva et peuvent induire une destruction tissulaire. L'objectif principal de mon projet de thèse était de comprendre les caractéristiques phénotypiques et fonctionnelles de ces lymphocytes Τ dans un état d'équilibre et dans un contexte infectieux. Pour étudier ces cellules dans un modèle murin bien défini, nous avons généré des souris exprimant un récepteur de cellule Τ transgénique appelé OT-3. Ces souris transgéniques OT-3 ont des lymphocytes Τ CD8+ de faible avidité spécifiques à l'épitope SIINFEKL de l'antigène Ovalbumine. Nous avons démontré qu'un grand nombre de lymphocytes Τ CD8+ OT-3 ne sont pas éliminés lors de la sélection négative dans le thymus après avoir rencontré l'antigène du soi. Par conséquent, les lymphocytes Τ OT-3 de faible avidité sont présents dans une fenêtre de sélection comprise entre la sélection positive et négative. Cette limite se définie comme le seuil d'affinité et est impliquée dans l'échappement de certains lymphocytes Τ OT- 3 autoréactifs. A la périphérie, ces cellules sont capables d'induire une autoimmunité après stimulation au cours d'une infection, ce qui nous permet de les définir comme étant non tolérante et non dans un état anergique à la périphérie. Nous avons également étudié le seuil d'activation des lymphocytes Τ OT-3 à faible avidité à la périphérie et avons constaté que des ligands peptidiques plus faibles que l'épitope natif SIINFEKL sont capables de les activer au cours d'une infection ainsi que de les différencier en lymphocytes Τ effecteurs et mémoires. Les données illustrent une déficience lors de la sélection négative dans le thymus de lymphocytes Τ CD8+ autoréactifs de faible avidité contre un antigène du soi spécifique à tissu et montrent que ces cellules sont entièrement compétentes lors d'une infection. - The diverse Τ cell repertoire needs to be tolerant to self-antigen to avoid the induction of autoimmunity. This is why autoreactive developing Τ cells are deleted in the thymus. The deletion of self-reactive Τ cells occurs through the process of negative selection. Most studies investigated high avidity Τ cells. These high avidity Τ cells are very sensitive and strongly react to a self-antigen. As a consequence, these cells induce the development of autoimmunity when they target organs which express the self-antigen. High avidity autoreactive CD8+ Τ cells are deleted in the thymus. However, several studies have shown Τ cells that weakly respond to tissue-restricted antigen, referred to as low avidity Τ cells, can bypass central and peripheral tolerance mechanisms. I used Rip-mOva mice that expressed Ovalbumin as a neo self-antigen in a tissue-restricted fashion. In these transgenic Rip-mOva mice low avidity CD8+ Τ cells survive negative selection. Upon stimulation in the periphery, these low avidity CD8+ Τ cells have the ability to infiltrate organs that express the self-antigen in the Rip-mOva mice and can also induce the destruction of the tissue. The major aim of my PhD project was to understand the phenotypic and functionality characteristics of these Τ cells in a steady-state condition and in a context of an infection. To study these cells in a well-defined mouse model, we generated OT-3 Τ cell receptor transgenic mice that express low avidity CD8+ Τ cells that are specific for the SIINFEKL epitope of the Ovalbumin antigen. We have been able to demonstrate that a large number of OT-3 CD8+ Τ cells survive negative selection in the thymus after encountering the self-antigen. Thus, low avidity OT-3 Τ cells are present in a window of selection comprised between positive and negative selection. This boundary defined as the affinity threshold is involved in the escape of some autoreactive low avidity OT-3 Τ cells. Once they circulate in the periphery, they are able to induce autoimmunity after stimulation during an infection, allowing us to allocate these cells as being non-tolerant and not in an anergic state in the periphery. We have also looked at the threshold of activation of low avidity OT-3 CD8+ Τ cells in the periphery and found that peptide ligands that are weaker than the native SIINFEKL epitope are able to activate OT-3 Τ cells during an infection and to differentiate them into effector and memory Τ cells. The data illustrate the impairment of negatively selecting low avidity autoreactive CD8+ Τ cells against a tissue-restricted antigen in the thymus and shows that these cells are fully competent upon an infection.

Autoreactive T cells bypass negative selection and respond to self-antigen stimulation during infection.

Central and peripheral tolerance prevent autoimmunity by deleting the most aggressive CD8(+) T cells but they spare cells that react weakly to tissue-restricted antigen (TRA). To reveal the functional characteristics of these spared cells, we generated a transgenic mouse expressing the TCR of a TRA-specific T cell that had escaped negative selection. Interestingly, the isolated TCR matches the affinity/avidity threshold for negatively selecting T cells, and when developing transgenic cells are exposed to their TRA in the thymus, only a fraction of them are eliminated but significant numbers enter the periphery. In contrast to high avidity cells, low avidity T cells persist in the antigen-positive periphery with no signs of anergy, unresponsiveness, or prior activation. Upon activation during an infection they cause autoimmunity and form memory cells. Unexpectedly, peptide ligands that are weaker in stimulating the transgenic T cells than the thymic threshold ligand also induce profound activation in the periphery. Thus, the peripheral T cell activation threshold during an infection is below that of negative selection for TRA. These results demonstrate the existence of a level of self-reactivity to TRA to which the thymus confers no protection and illustrate that organ damage can occur without genetic predisposition to autoimmunity.

Transitions from reproductive systems governed by two self-incompatible Loci to one in fungi.

Self-incompatibility (SI), a reproductive system broadly present in plants, chordates, fungi, and protists, might be controlled by one or several multiallelic loci. How a transition in the number of SI loci can occur and the consequences of such events for the population's genetics and dynamics have not been studied theoretically. Here, we provide analytical descriptions of two transition mechanisms: linkage of the two SI loci (scenario 1) and the loss of function of one incompatibility gene within a mating type of a population with two SI loci (scenario 2). We show that invasion of populations by the new mating type form depends on whether the fitness of the new type is lowered, and on the allelic diversity of the SI loci and the recombination between the two SI loci in the starting population. Moreover, under scenario 1, it also depends on the frequency of the SI alleles that became linked. We demonstrate that, following invasion, complete transitions in the reproductive system occurs under scenario 2 and is predicted only for small populations under scenario 1. Interestingly, such events are associated with a drastic reduction in mating type number.

Cutting edge: influence of the TCR Vbeta domain on the selection of semi-invariant NKT cells by endogenous ligands.

Invariant Valpha14 (Valpha14i) NKT cells are a murine CD1d-dependent regulatory T cell subset characterized by a Valpha14-Jalpha18 rearrangement and expression of mostly Vbeta8.2 and Vbeta7. Whereas the TCR Vbeta domain influences the binding avidity of the Valpha14i TCR for CD1d-alpha-galactosylceramide complexes, with Vbeta8.2 conferring higher avidity binding than Vbeta7, a possible impact of the TCR Vbeta domain on Valpha14i NKT cell selection by endogenous ligands has not been studied. In this study, we show that thymic selection of Vbeta7(+), but not Vbeta8.2(+), Valpha14i NKT cells is favored in situations where endogenous ligand concentration or TCRalpha-chain avidity are suboptimal. Furthermore, thymic Vbeta7(+) Valpha14i NKT cells were preferentially selected in vitro in response to CD1d-dependent presentation of endogenous ligands or exogenously added self ligand isoglobotrihexosylceramide. Collectively, our data demonstrate that the TCR Vbeta domain influences the selection of Valpha14i NKT cells by endogenous ligands, presumably because Vbeta7 confers higher avidity binding.

Positional scanning-synthetic peptide library-based analysis of self- and pathogen-derived peptide cross-reactivity with tumor-reactive Melan-A-specific CTL.

Synthetic combinatorial peptide libraries in positional scanning format (PS-SCL) have recently emerged as a useful tool for the analysis of T cell recognition. This includes identification of potentially cross-reactive sequences of self or pathogen origin that could be relevant for the understanding of TCR repertoire selection and maintenance, as well as of the cross-reactive potential of Ag-specific immune responses. In this study, we have analyzed the recognition of sequences retrieved by using a biometric analysis of the data generated by screening a PS-SCL with a tumor-reactive CTL clone specific for an immunodominant peptide from the melanocyte differentiation and tumor-associated Ag Melan-A. We found that 39% of the retrieved peptides were recognized by the CTL clone used for PS-SCL screening. The proportion of peptides recognized was higher among those with both high predicted affinity for the HLA-A2 molecule and high predicted stimulatory score. Interestingly, up to 94% of the retrieved peptides were cross-recognized by other Melan-A-specific CTL. Cross-recognition was at least partially focused, as some peptides were cross-recognized by the majority of CTL. Importantly, stimulation of PBMC from melanoma patients with the most frequently recognized peptides elicited the expansion of heterogeneous CD8(+) T cell populations, one fraction of which cross-recognized Melan-A. Together, these results underline the high predictive value of PS-SCL for the identification of sequences cross-recognized by Ag-specific T cells.