Evaluation de la douleur chez les personnes cérébrolésées non-communicantes aux soins intensifs

La douleur est fréquente en milieu de soins intensifs et sa gestion est l'une des missions des infirmières. Son évaluation est une prémisse indispensable à son soulagement. Cependant lorsque le patient est incapable de signaler sa douleur, les infirmières doivent se baser sur des signes externes pour l'évaluer. Les guides de bonne pratique recommandent chez les personnes non communicantes l'usage d'un instrument validé pour la population donnée et basé sur l'observation des comportements. A l'heure actuelle, les instruments d'évaluation de la douleur disponibles ne sont que partiellement adaptés aux personnes cérébrolésées dans la mesure où ces personnes présentent des comportements qui leur sont spécifiques. C'est pourquoi, cette étude vise à identifier, décrire et valider des indicateurs, et des descripteurs, de la douleur chez les personnes cérébrolésées. Un devis d'étude mixte multiphase avec une dominante quantitative a été choisi pour cette étude. Une première phase consistait à identifier des indicateurs et des descripteurs de la douleur chez les personnes cérébrolésées non communicantes aux soins intensifs en combinant trois sources de données : une revue intégrative des écrits, une démarche consultative utilisant la technique du groupe nominal auprès de 18 cliniciens expérimentés (6 médecins et 12 infirmières) et les résultats d'une étude pilote observationnelle réalisée auprès de 10 traumatisés crâniens. Les résultats ont permis d'identifier 6 indicateurs et 47 descripteurs comportementaux, vocaux et physiologiques susceptibles d'être inclus dans un instrument d'évaluation de la douleur destiné aux personnes cérébrolésées non- communicantes aux soins intensifs. Une deuxième phase séquentielle vérifiait les propriétés psychométriques des indicateurs et des descripteurs préalablement identifiés. La validation de contenu a été testée auprès de 10 experts cliniques et 4 experts scientifiques à l'aide d'un questionnaire structuré qui cherchait à évaluer la pertinence et la clarté/compréhensibilité de chaque descripteur. Cette démarche a permis de sélectionner 33 des 47 descripteurs et valider 6 indicateurs. Dans un deuxième temps, les propriétés psychométriques de ces indicateurs et descripteurs ont été étudiés au repos, lors de stimulation non nociceptive et lors d'une stimulation nociceptive (la latéralisation du patient) auprès de 116 personnes cérébrolésées aux soins intensifs hospitalisées dans deux centres hospitaliers universitaires. Les résultats montrent d'importantes variations dans les descripteurs observés lors de stimulation nociceptive probablement dues à l'hétérogénéité des patients au niveau de leur état de conscience. Dix descripteurs ont été éliminés, car leur fréquence lors de la stimulation nociceptive était inférieure à 5% ou leur fiabilité insuffisante. Les descripteurs physiologiques ont tous été supprimés en raison de leur faible variabilité et d'une fiabilité inter juge problématique. Les résultats montrent que la validité concomitante, c'est-à-dire la corrélation entre l'auto- évaluation du patient et les mesures réalisées avec les descripteurs, est satisfaisante lors de stimulation nociceptive {rs=0,527, p=0,003, n=30). Par contre la validité convergente, qui vérifiait l'association entre l'évaluation de la douleur par l'infirmière en charge du patient et les mesures réalisés avec les descripteurs, ainsi que la validité divergente, qui vérifiait si les indicateurs discriminent entre la stimulation nociceptive et le repos, mettent en évidence des résultats variables en fonction de l'état de conscience des patients. Ces résultats soulignent la nécessité d'étudier les descripteurs de la douleur chez des patients cérébrolésés en fonction du niveau de conscience et de considérer l'hétérogénéité de cette population dans la conception d'un instrument d'évaluation de la douleur pour les personnes cérébrolésées non communicantes aux soins intensifs. - Pain is frequent in the intensive care unit (ICU) and its management is a major issue for nurses. The assessment of pain is a prerequisite for appropriate pain management. However, pain assessment is difficult when patients are unable to communicate about their experience and nurses have to base their evaluation on external signs. Clinical practice guidelines highlight the need to use behavioral scales that have been validated for nonverbal patients. Current behavioral pain tools for ICU patients unable to communicate may not be appropriate for nonverbal brain-injured ICU patients, as they demonstrate specific responses to pain. This study aimed to identify, describe and validate pain indicators and descriptors in brain-injured ICU patients. A mixed multiphase method design with a quantitative dominant was chosen for this study. The first phase aimed to identify indicators and descriptors of pain for nonverbal brain- injured ICU patients using data from three sources: an integrative literature review, a consultation using the nominal group technique with 18 experienced clinicians (12 nurses and 6 physicians) and the results of an observational pilot study with 10 traumatic brain injured patients. The results of this first phase identified 6 indicators and 47 behavioral, vocal and physiological descriptors of pain that could be included in a pain assessment tool for this population. The sequential phase two tested the psychometric properties of the list of previously identified indicators and descriptors. Content validity was tested with 10 clinical and 4 scientific experts for pertinence and comprehensibility using a structured questionnaire. This process resulted in 33 descriptors to be selected out of 47 previously identified, and six validated indicators. Then, the psychometric properties of the descriptors and indicators were tested at rest, during non nociceptive stimulation and nociceptive stimulation (turning) in a sample of 116 brain-injured ICLI patients who were hospitalized in two university centers. Results showed important variations in the descriptors observed during the nociceptive stimulation, probably due to the heterogeneity of patients' level of consciousness. Ten descriptors were excluded, as they were observed less than 5% of the time or their reliability was insufficient. All physiologic descriptors were deleted as they showed little variability and inter observer reliability was lacking. Concomitant validity, testing the association between patients' self report of pain and measures performed using the descriptors, was acceptable during nociceptive stimulation (rs=0,527, p=0,003, n=30). However, convergent validity ( testing for an association between the nurses' pain assessment and measures done with descriptors) and divergent validity (testing for the ability of the indicators to discriminate between rest and a nociceptive stimulation) varied according to the level of consciousness These results highlight the need to study pain descriptors in brain-injured patients with different level of consciousness and to take into account the heterogeneity of this population forthe conception of a pain assessment tool for nonverbal brain-injured ICU patients.

Modelling the distribution of bats in relation to landscape structure in a temperate mountain environment

1. Landscape modification is often considered the principal cause of population decline in many bat species. Thus, schemes for bat conservation rely heavily on knowledge about species-landscape relationships. So far, however, few studies have quantified the possible influence of landscape structure on large-scale spatial patterns in bat communities. 2. This study presents quantitative models that use landscape structure to predict (i) spatial patterns in overall community composition and (ii) individual species' distributions through canonical correspondence analysis and generalized linear models, respectively. A geographical information system (GIS) was then used to draw up maps of (i) overall community patterns and (ii) distribution of potential species' habitats. These models relied on field data from the Swiss Jura mountains. 3. Fight descriptors of landscape structure accounted for 30% of the variation in bat community composition. For some species, more than 60% of the variance in distribution could be explained by landscape structure. Elevation, forest or woodland cover, lakes and suburbs, were the most frequent predictors. 4. This study shows that community composition in bats is related to landscape structure through species-specific relationships to resources. Due to their nocturnal activities and the difficulties of remote identification, a comprehensive bat census is rarely possible, and we suggest that predictive modelling of the type described here provides an indispensable conservation tool.

Ambulatory healthcare information system: a conceptual framework

Despite the tremendous amount of data collected in the field of ambulatory care, political authorities still lack synthetic indicators to provide them with a global view of health services utilization and costs related to various types of diseases. Moreover, public health indicators fail to provide useful information for physicians' accountability purposes. The approach is based on the Swiss context, which is characterized by the greatest frequency of medical visits in Europe, the highest rate of growth for care expenditure, poor public information but a lot of structured data (new fee system introduced in 2004). The proposed conceptual framework is universal and based on descriptors of six entities: general population, people with poor health, patients, services, resources and effects. We show that most conceptual shortcomings can be overcome and that the proposed indicators can be achieved without threatening privacy protection, using modern cryptographic techniques. Twelve indicators are suggested for the surveillance of the ambulatory care system, almost all based on routinely available data: morbidity, accessibility, relevancy, adequacy, productivity, efficacy (from the points of view of the population, people with poor health, and patients), effectiveness, efficiency, health services coverage and financing. The additional costs of this surveillance system should not exceed Euro 2 million per year (Euro 0.3 per capita).

Approaches to identifying and quantifying polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons of molecular weight 302 in diesel particulates

Among the PAH class of compounds, high molecular weight PAH are now considered as relevant cancer inducers, but not all of them have the same biological activity. However, their analysis is difficult, mainly due to the presence of numerous isomers and due to their low volatility. Retention indices (Ri) for 13 dibenzopyrenes and homologues were determined by high-resolution capillary gas chromatography (GC) with four different stationary phases: a 5% phenyl-substituted methylpolysiloxane column (DB-5 ms), a 35% phenyl-substituted methylpolysiloxane column (BPX-35), a 50% phenyl-substituted methylpolysiloxane column (BPX-50), and a 35% trifluoropropylmethyl polysiloxane stationary phase (Rtx-200). Correlations for retention on each phase were investigated by using 8 independent molecular descriptors. Ri has been shown to be linearly correlated to PAH volume, polarisability alpha, Hückel-pi energy on the four examined columns. Ionisation potential Ip is a fourth variable which improves the regression model for DB-5ms, BPX-35, and BPX-50 column. Correlation coefficients ranging from r2 = 0.935 to r2 = 0.952 are then observed. Application of these indices to the identification and quantification of PAH with MW 302 in certified diesel particulate matter SRM 1650a is presented and discussed. [Authors]

Exploration of alpine orographic precipitation patterns with radar image processing and clustering techniques

A methodology of exploratory data analysis investigating the phenomenon of orographic precipitation enhancement is proposed. The precipitation observations obtained from three Swiss Doppler weather radars are analysed for the major precipitation event of August 2005 in the Alps. Image processing techniques are used to detect significant precipitation cells/pixels from radar images while filtering out spurious effects due to ground clutter. The contribution of topography to precipitation patterns is described by an extensive set of topographical descriptors computed from the digital elevation model at multiple spatial scales. Additionally, the motion vector field is derived from subsequent radar images and integrated into a set of topographic features to highlight the slopes exposed to main flows. Following the exploratory data analysis with a recent algorithm of spectral clustering, it is shown that orographic precipitation cells are generated under specific flow and topographic conditions. Repeatability of precipitation patterns in particular spatial locations is found to be linked to specific local terrain shapes, e.g. at the top of hills and on the upwind side of the mountains. This methodology and our empirical findings for the Alpine region provide a basis for building computational data-driven models of orographic enhancement and triggering of precipitation. Copyright (C) 2011 Royal Meteorological Society .

A comparison between joint coordinate system and attitude vector for multi-segment foot kinematics.

The joint angles of multi-segment foot models have been primarily described using two mathematical methods: the joint coordinate system and the attitude vector. This study aimed to determine whether the angles obtained through these two descriptors are comparable, and whether these descriptors have similar sensitivity to experimental errors. Six subjects walked eight times on an instrumented walkway while the joint angles among shank, hindfoot, medial forefoot, and lateral forefoot were measured. The angles obtained using both descriptors and their sensitivity to experimental errors were compared. There was no overall significant difference between the ranges of motion obtained using both descriptors. However, median differences of more than 6° were noticed for the medial-lateral forefoot joint. For all joints and rotation planes, both descriptors provided highly similar angle patterns (median correlation coefficient: R>0.90), except for the medial-lateral forefoot angle in the transverse plane (median R=0.77). The joint coordinate system was significantly more sensitive to anatomical landmarks misplacement errors. However, the absolute differences of sensitivity were small relative to the joints ranges of motion. In conclusion, the angles obtained using these two descriptors were not identical, but were similar for at least the shank-hindfoot and hindfoot-medial forefoot joints. Therefore, the angle comparison across descriptors is possible for these two joints. Comparison should be done more carefully for the medial-lateral forefoot joint. Moreover, despite different sensitivities to experimental errors, the effects of the experimental errors on the angles were small for both descriptors suggesting that both descriptors can be considered for multi-segment foot models.

Neurally Adjusted Ventilatory Assist (NAVA) improves the matching of diaphragmatic electrical activity and tidal volume in comparison to pressure support (PS) under non invasive ventilation

INTRODUCTION. Patient-ventilator asynchrony is a frequent issue in non invasivemechanical ventilation (NIV) and leaks at the patient-mask interface play a major role in itspathogenesis. NIV algorithms alleviate the deleterious impact of leaks and improve patient-ventilator interaction. Neurally adusted ventilatory assist (NAVA), a neurally triggered modethat avoids interferences between leaks and the usual pneumatic trigger, could further improvepatient-ventilator interaction in NIV patients.OBJECTIVES. To evaluate the feasibility ofNAVAin patients receiving a prophylactic postextubationNIV and to compare the respective impact ofPSVandNAVAwith and withoutNIValgorithm on patient-ventilator interaction.METHODS. Prospective study conducted in 16 beds adult critical care unit (ICU) in a tertiaryuniversity hospital. Over a 2 months period, were included 17 adult medical ICU patientsextubated for less than 2 h and in whom a prophylactic post-extubation NIV was indicated.Patients were randomly mechanically ventilated for 10 min with: PSV without NIV algorithm(PSV-NIV-), PSV with NIV algorithm (PSV-NIV+),NAVAwithout NIV algorithm (NAVANIV-)and NAVA with NIV algorithm (NAVA-NIV+). Breathing pattern descriptors, diaphragmelectrical activity, leaks volume, inspiratory trigger delay (Tdinsp), inspiratory time inexcess (Tiexcess) and the five main asynchronies were quantified. Asynchrony index (AI) andasynchrony index influenced by leaks (AIleaks) were computed.RESULTS. Peak inspiratory pressure and diaphragm electrical activity were similar in thefour conditions. With both PSV and NAVA, NIV algorithm significantly reduced the level ofleak (p\0.01). Tdinsp was not affected by NIV algorithm but was shorter in NAVA than inPSV (p\0.01). Tiexcess was shorter in NAVA and PSV-NIV+ than in PSV-NIV- (p\0.05).The prevalence of double triggering was significantly lower in PSV-NIV+ than in NAVANIV+.As compared to PSV,NAVAsignificantly reduced the prevalence of premature cyclingand late cycling while NIV algorithm did not influenced premature cycling. AI was not affectedby NIV algorithm but was significantly lower in NAVA than in PSV (p\0.05). AIleaks wasquasi null with NAVA and significantly lower than in PSV (p\0.05).CONCLUSIONS. NAVA is feasible in patients receiving a post-extubation prophylacticNIV. NAVA and NIV improve patient-ventilator synchrony in different manners. NAVANIV+offers the best patient-ventilator interaction. Clinical studies are required to assess thepotential clinical benefit of NAVA in patients receiving NIV.

Cardiovascular patterns associated with appetitive and defensive activation during affective picture viewing

Descriptors: cardiovascular patterns, emotion, affective pictures In this study we assessed blood pressure (BP), heart rate (HR), stroke volume (SV), cardiac output (CO), and total peripheral resistance (TPR) in response to 13 picture series in 18 men and 19 women in order to investigate their hemodynamic responses associated with activation of the appetitive and defensive motivational systems underlying emotional experience. Skin conductance level (SCL) was also recorded. BP and SV increased with increasing self-rated arousal both for appetitive and defensive activation, whereas HR decelerated more in response to negative than positive and neutral pictures. TPR showed a general increase from baseline to picture processing but was unrelated to self-rated valence and arousal. These findings suggest that affective modulation of the cardiovascular response to affective pictures is primarily myocardial. The observed response pattern is consistent with a configuration of cardiac sympathetic-parasympathetic coactivation. The relationships between self-reported arousal, BP and SV were mainly exhibited by men suggesting that increases in the sympathetic inotropic effect to the heart with increasing self-rated arousal might be larger in men than in women. In contrast, SCL covaried positively with self-rated arousal both in men and women. This suggests that sex differences in the affective modulation of the responses to pictures may be restricted to specific cardiovascular parameters and support the contention that the sympathetic nervous system does not discharge as a whole.

Spatial pattern of floral morphology: a possible insight into the effects of pollinators on plant distribution

Pollination syndromes involve convergent evolution towards phenotypes composed of specific scents, colours or floral morphologies that attract or restrict pollinator access to reward. How these traits might influence the distributions of plant species in interaction with pollinators has rarely been investigated. We sampled 870 vegetation plots in the western Swiss Alps and classified the plant species into seven blossom types according to their floral morphology (wind, disk, funnel, tube, bilabiate, head or brush). We investigated the environmental features of plots with functional diversity (FD) lower than expected by chance alone to detect potential pollination filtering and related the proportions of the seven blossom types to a combination of environmental descriptors. From these results, we inferred the potential effect of the pollinator on the spatial distribution of plant species. The vegetation plots with significantly lower FD of blossom types than expected by chance were found at higher altitudes, and the proportions of blossom types were strongly patterned along the same gradient. These results support a biotic filtering effect on plant species assemblages through pollination: disk blossoms became dominant at higher altitudes, resulting in a lower FD. In harsh conditions at high altitudes, pollinators usually decrease in activity, and the openness of the disk blossom grants access to any available pollinator. Inversely, bilabiate blossoms, which are mostly pollinated by bees, were more abundant at lower elevations, which are characterised by greater abundance and diversity of bees. Generalisation through openness of the blossom could be advantageous at high elevations, while specialisation could be a successful alternative strategy at lower elevations. The approach used in this study is purely correlative, and further investigations should be conducted to infer the nature of the causal relationship between plant and pollinator distributions.

Quantitative Assessment of Handwriting Evidence: The Value of the Shape of the Letter "A"

To provide a quantitative support to the handwriting evidence evaluation, a new method was developed through the computation of a likelihood ratio based on a Bayesian approach. In the present paper, the methodology is briefly described and applied to data collected within a simulated case of a threatening letter. Fourier descriptors are used to characterise the shape of loops of handwritten characters "a" of the true writer of the threatening letter, and: 1) with reference characters "a" of the true writer of the threatening letter, and then 2) with characters "a" of a writer who did not write the threatening letter. The findings support that the probabilistic methodology correctly supports either the hypothesis of authorship or the alternative hypothesis. Further developments will enable the handwriting examiner to use this methodology as a helpful assistance to assess the strength of evidence in handwriting casework.

Improved statistical analysis of low abundance phenomena in bimodal bacterial populations.

Accurate detection of subpopulation size determinations in bimodal populations remains problematic yet it represents a powerful way by which cellular heterogeneity under different environmental conditions can be compared. So far, most studies have relied on qualitative descriptions of population distribution patterns, on population-independent descriptors, or on arbitrary placement of thresholds distinguishing biological ON from OFF states. We found that all these methods fall short of accurately describing small population sizes in bimodal populations. Here we propose a simple, statistics-based method for the analysis of small subpopulation sizes for use in the free software environment R and test this method on real as well as simulated data. Four so-called population splitting methods were designed with different algorithms that can estimate subpopulation sizes from bimodal populations. All four methods proved more precise than previously used methods when analyzing subpopulation sizes of transfer competent cells arising in populations of the bacterium Pseudomonas knackmussii B13. The methods' resolving powers were further explored by bootstrapping and simulations. Two of the methods were not severely limited by the proportions of subpopulations they could estimate correctly, but the two others only allowed accurate subpopulation quantification when this amounted to less than 25% of the total population. In contrast, only one method was still sufficiently accurate with subpopulations smaller than 1% of the total population. This study proposes a number of rational approximations to quantifying small subpopulations and offers an easy-to-use protocol for their implementation in the open source statistical software environment R.

Changing landscapes of Switzerland: assessing effects of historic and future land uses and land covers on the occurrence of selected butterfly species

Summary Landscapes are continuously changing. Natural forces of change such as heavy rainfall and fires can exert lasting influences on their physical form. However, changes related to human activities have often shaped landscapes more distinctly. In Western Europe, especially modern agricultural practices and the expanse of overbuilt land have left their marks in the landscapes since the middle of the 20th century. In the recent years men realised that mare and more changes that were formerly attributed to natural forces might indirectly be the result of their own action. Perhaps the most striking landscape change indirectly driven by human activity we can witness in these days is the large withdrawal of Alpine glaciers. Together with the landscapes also habitats of animal and plant species have undergone vast and sometimes rapid changes that have been hold responsible for the ongoing loss of biodiversity. Thereby, still little knowledge is available about probable effects of the rate of landscape change on species persistence and disappearance. Therefore, the development and speed of land use/land cover in the Swiss communes between the 1950s and 1990s were reconstructed using 10 parameters from agriculture and housing censuses, and were further correlated with changes in butterfly species occurrences. Cluster analyses were used to detect spatial patterns of change on broad spatial scales. Thereby, clusters of communes showing similar changes or transformation rates were identified for single decades and put into a temporally dynamic sequence. The obtained picture on the changes showed a prevalent replacement of non-intensive agriculture by intensive practices, a strong spreading of urban communes around city centres, and transitions towards larger farm sizes in the mountainous areas. Increasing transformation rates toward more intensive agricultural managements were especially found until the 1970s, whereas afterwards the trends were commonly negative. However, transformation rates representing the development of residential buildings showed positive courses at any time. The analyses concerning the butterfly species showed that grassland species reacted sensitively to the density of livestock in the communes. This might indicate the augmented use of dry grasslands as cattle pastures that show altered plant species compositions. Furthermore, these species also decreased in communes where farms with an agricultural area >5ha have disappeared. The species of the wetland habitats were favoured in communes with smaller fractions of agricultural areas and lower densities of large farms (>10ha) but did not show any correlation to transformation rates. It was concluded from these analyses that transformation rates might influence species disappearance to a certain extent but that states of the environmental predictors might generally outweigh the importance of the corresponding rates. Information on the current distribution of species is evident for nature conservation. Planning authorities that define priority areas for species protection or examine and authorise construction projects need to know about the spatial distribution of species. Hence, models that simulate the potential spatial distribution of species have become important decision tools. The underlying statistical analyses such as the widely used generalised linear models (GLM) often rely on binary species presence-absence data. However, often only species presence data have been colleted, especially for vagrant, rare or cryptic species such as butterflies or reptiles. Modellers have thus introduced randomly selected absence data to design distribution models. Yet, selecting false absence data might bias the model results. Therefore, we investigated several strategies to select more reliable absence data to model the distribution of butterfly species based on historical distribution data. The results showed that better models were obtained when historical data from longer time periods were considered. Furthermore, model performance was additionally increased when long-term data of species that show similar habitat requirements as the modelled species were used. This successful methodological approach was further applied to assess consequences of future landscape changes on the occurrence of butterfly species inhabiting dry grasslands or wetlands. These habitat types have been subjected to strong deterioration in the recent decades, what makes their protection a future mission. Four spatially explicit scenarios that described (i) ongoing land use changes as observed between 1985 and 1997, (ii) liberalised agricultural markets, and (iii) slightly and (iv) strongly lowered agricultural production provided probable directions of landscape change. Current species-environment relationships were derived from a statistical model and used to predict future occurrence probabilities in six major biogeographical regions in Switzerland, comprising the Jura Mountains, the Plateau, the Northern and Southern Alps, as well as the Western and Eastern Central Alps. The main results were that dry grasslands species profited from lowered agricultural production, whereas overgrowth of open areas in the liberalisation scenario might impair species occurrence. The wetland species mostly responded with decreases in their occurrence probabilities in the scenarios, due to a loss of their preferred habitat. Further analyses about factors currently influencing species occurrences confirmed anthropogenic causes such as urbanisation, abandonment of open land, and agricultural intensification. Hence, landscape planning should pay more attention to these forces in areas currently inhabited by these butterfly species to enable sustainable species persistence. In this thesis historical data were intensively used to reconstruct past developments and to make them useful for current investigations. Yet, the availability of historical data and the analyses on broader spatial scales has often limited the explanatory power of the conducted analyses. Meaningful descriptors of former habitat characteristics and abundant species distribution data are generally sparse, especially for fine scale analyses. However, this situation can be ameliorated by broadening the extent of the study site and the used grain size, as was done in this thesis by considering the whole of Switzerland with its communes. Nevertheless, current monitoring projects and data recording techniques are promising data sources that might allow more detailed analyses about effects of long-term species reactions on landscape changes in the near future. This work, however, also showed the value of historical species distribution data as for example their potential to locate still unknown species occurrences. The results might therefore contribute to further research activities that investigate current and future species distributions considering the immense richness of historical distribution data. Résumé Les paysages changent continuellement. Des farces naturelles comme des pluies violentes ou des feux peuvent avoir une influence durable sur la forme du paysage. Cependant, les changements attribués aux activités humaines ont souvent modelé les paysages plus profondément. Depuis les années 1950 surtout, les pratiques agricoles modernes ou l'expansion des surfaces d'habitat et d'infrastructure ont caractérisé le développement du paysage en Europe de l'Ouest. Ces dernières années, l'homme a commencé à réaliser que beaucoup de changements «naturels » pourraient indirectement résulter de ses propres activités. Le changement de paysage le plus apparent dont nous sommes témoins de nos jours est probablement l'immense retraite des glaciers alpins. Avec les paysages, les habitats des animaux et des plantes ont aussi été exposés à des changements vastes et quelquefois rapides, tenus pour coresponsable de la continuelle diminution de la biodiversité. Cependant, nous savons peu des effets probables de la rapidité des changements du paysage sur la persistance et la disparition des espèces. Le développement et la rapidité du changement de l'utilisation et de la couverture du sol dans les communes suisses entre les années 50 et 90 ont donc été reconstruits au moyen de 10 variables issues des recensements agricoles et résidentiels et ont été corrélés avec des changements de présence des papillons diurnes. Des analyses de groupes (Cluster analyses) ont été utilisées pour détecter des arrangements spatiaux de changements à l'échelle de la Suisse. Des communes avec des changements ou rapidités comparables ont été délimitées pour des décennies séparées et ont été placées en séquence temporelle, en rendrent une certaine dynamique du changement. Les résultats ont montré un remplacement répandu d'une agriculture extensive des pratiques intensives, une forte expansion des faubourgs urbains autour des grandes cités et des transitions vers de plus grandes surfaces d'exploitation dans les Alpes. Dans le cas des exploitations agricoles, des taux de changement croissants ont été observés jusqu'aux années 70, alors que la tendance a généralement été inversée dans les années suivantes. Par contre, la vitesse de construction des nouvelles maisons a montré des courbes positives pendant les 50 années. Les analyses sur la réaction des papillons diurnes ont montré que les espèces des prairies sèches supportaient une grande densité de bétail. Il est possible que dans ces communes beaucoup des prairies sèches aient été fertilisées et utilisées comme pâturages, qui ont une autre composition floristique. De plus, les espèces ont diminué dans les communes caractérisées par une rapide perte des fermes avec une surface cultivable supérieure à 5 ha. Les espèces des marais ont été favorisées dans des communes avec peu de surface cultivable et peu de grandes fermes, mais n'ont pas réagi aux taux de changement. Il en a donc été conclu que la rapidité des changements pourrait expliquer les disparitions d'espèces dans certains cas, mais que les variables prédictives qui expriment des états pourraient être des descripteurs plus importants. Des informations sur la distribution récente des espèces sont importantes par rapport aux mesures pour la conservation de la nature. Pour des autorités occupées à définir des zones de protection prioritaires ou à autoriser des projets de construction, ces informations sont indispensables. Les modèles de distribution spatiale d'espèces sont donc devenus des moyens de décision importants. Les méthodes statistiques courantes comme les modèles linéaires généralisés (GLM) demandent des données de présence et d'absence des espèces. Cependant, souvent seules les données de présence sont disponibles, surtout pour les animaux migrants, rares ou cryptiques comme des papillons ou des reptiles. C'est pourquoi certains modélisateurs ont choisi des absences au hasard, avec le risque d'influencer le résultat en choisissant des fausses absences. Nous avons établi plusieurs stratégies, basées sur des données de distribution historique des papillons diurnes, pour sélectionner des absences plus fiables. Les résultats ont démontré que de meilleurs modèles pouvaient être obtenus lorsque les données proviennent des périodes de temps plus longues. En plus, la performance des modèles a pu être augmentée en considérant des données de distribution à long terme d'espèces qui occupent des habitats similaires à ceux de l'espèce cible. Vu le succès de cette stratégie, elle a été utilisée pour évaluer les effets potentiels des changements de paysage futurs sur la distribution des papillons des prairies sèches et marais, deux habitats qui ont souffert de graves détériorations. Quatre scénarios spatialement explicites, décrivant (i) l'extrapolation des changements de l'utilisation de sol tels qu'observés entre 1985 et 1997, (ii) la libéralisation des marchés agricoles, et une production agricole (iii) légèrement amoindrie et (iv) fortement diminuée, ont été utilisés pour générer des directions de changement probables. Les relations actuelles entre la distribution des espèces et l'environnement ont été déterminées par le biais des modèles statistiques et ont été utilisées pour calculer des probabilités de présence selon les scénarios dans six régions biogéographiques majeures de la Suisse, comportant le Jura, le Plateau, les Alpes du Nord, du Sud, centrales orientales et centrales occidentales. Les résultats principaux ont montré que les espèces des prairies sèches pourraient profiter d'une diminution de la production agricole, mais qu'elles pourraient aussi disparaître à cause de l'embroussaillement des terres ouvertes dû à la libéralisation des marchés agricoles. La probabilité de présence des espèces de marais a décrû à cause d'une perte générale des habitats favorables. De plus, les analyses ont confirmé que des causes humaines comme l'urbanisation, l'abandon des terres ouvertes et l'intensification de l'agriculture affectent actuellement ces espèces. Ainsi ces forces devraient être mieux prises en compte lors de planifications paysagères, pour que ces papillons diurnes puissent survivre dans leurs habitats actuels. Dans ce travail de thèse, des données historiques ont été intensivement utilisées pour reconstruire des développements anciens et pour les rendre utiles à des recherches contemporaines. Cependant, la disponibilité des données historiques et les analyses à grande échelle ont souvent limité le pouvoir explicatif des analyses. Des descripteurs pertinents pour caractériser les habitats anciens et des données suffisantes sur la distribution des espèces sont généralement rares, spécialement pour des analyses à des échelles fores. Cette situation peut être améliorée en augmentant l'étendue du site d'étude et la résolution, comme il a été fait dans cette thèse en considérant toute la Suisse avec ses communes. Cependant, les récents projets de surveillance et les techniques de collecte de données sont des sources prometteuses, qui pourraient permettre des analyses plus détaillés sur les réactions à long terme des espèces aux changements de paysage dans le futur. Ce travail a aussi montré la valeur des anciennes données de distribution, par exemple leur potentiel pour aider à localiser des' présences d'espèces encore inconnues. Les résultats peuvent contribuer à des activités de recherche à venir, qui étudieraient les distributions récentes ou futures d'espèces en considérant l'immense richesse des données de distribution historiques.

Molecular modeling of peptide-MHC class I complexes : applications to peptide based immunotherapy

Summary The specific CD8+ T cell immune response against tumors relies on the recognition by the T cell receptor (TCR) on cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) of antigenic peptides bound to the class I major histocompatibility complex (MHC) molecule. Such tumor associated antigenic peptides are the focus of tumor immunotherapy with peptide vaccines. The strategy for obtaining an improved immune response often involves the design of modified tumor associated antigenic peptides. Such modifications aim at creating higher affinity and/or degradation resistant peptides and require precise structures of the peptide-MHC class I complex. In addition, the modified peptide must be cross-recognized by CTLs specific for the parental peptide, i.e. preserve the structure of the epitope. Detailed structural information on the modified peptide in complex with MHC is necessary for such predictions. In this thesis, the main focus is the development of theoretical in silico methods for prediction of both structure and cross-reactivity of peptide-MHC class I complexes. Applications of these methods in the context of immunotherapy are also presented. First, a theoretical method for structure prediction of peptide-MHC class I complexes is developed and validated. The approach is based on a molecular dynamics protocol to sample the conformational space of the peptide in its MHC environment. The sampled conformers are evaluated using conformational free energy calculations. The method, which is evaluated for its ability to reproduce 41 X-ray crystallographic structures of different peptide-MHC class I complexes, shows an overall prediction success of 83%. Importantly, in the clinically highly relevant subset of peptide-HLAA*0201 complexes, the prediction success is 100%. Based on these structure predictions, a theoretical approach for prediction of cross-reactivity is developed and validated. This method involves the generation of quantitative structure-activity relationships using three-dimensional molecular descriptors and a genetic neural network. The generated relationships are highly predictive as proved by high cross-validated correlation coefficients (0.78-0.79). Together, the here developed theoretical methods open the door for efficient rational design of improved peptides to be used in immunotherapy. Résumé La réponse immunitaire spécifique contre des tumeurs dépend de la reconnaissance par les récepteurs des cellules T CD8+ de peptides antigéniques présentés par les complexes majeurs d'histocompatibilité (CMH) de classe I. Ces peptides sont utilisés comme cible dans l'immunothérapie par vaccins peptidiques. Afin d'augmenter la réponse immunitaire, les peptides sont modifiés de façon à améliorer l'affinité et/ou la résistance à la dégradation. Ceci nécessite de connaître la structure tridimensionnelle des complexes peptide-CMH. De plus, les peptides modifiés doivent être reconnus par des cellules T spécifiques du peptide natif. La structure de l'épitope doit donc être préservée et des structures détaillées des complexes peptide-CMH sont nécessaires. Dans cette thèse, le thème central est le développement des méthodes computationnelles de prédiction des structures des complexes peptide-CMH classe I et de la reconnaissance croisée. Des applications de ces méthodes de prédiction à l'immunothérapie sont également présentées. Premièrement, une méthode théorique de prédiction des structures des complexes peptide-CMH classe I est développée et validée. Cette méthode est basée sur un échantillonnage de l'espace conformationnel du peptide dans le contexte du récepteur CMH classe I par dynamique moléculaire. Les conformations sont évaluées par leurs énergies libres conformationnelles. La méthode est validée par sa capacité à reproduire 41 structures des complexes peptide-CMH classe I obtenues par cristallographie aux rayons X. Le succès prédictif général est de 83%. Pour le sous-groupe HLA-A*0201 de complexes de grande importance pour l'immunothérapie, ce succès est de 100%. Deuxièmement, à partir de ces structures prédites in silico, une méthode théorique de prédiction de la reconnaissance croisée est développée et validée. Celle-ci consiste à générer des relations structure-activité quantitatives en utilisant des descripteurs moléculaires tridimensionnels et un réseau de neurones couplé à un algorithme génétique. Les relations générées montrent une capacité de prédiction remarquable avec des valeurs de coefficients de corrélation de validation croisée élevées (0.78-0.79). Les méthodes théoriques développées dans le cadre de cette thèse ouvrent la voie du design de vaccins peptidiques améliorés.

How to measure cortical folding from MR images: a step-by-step tutorial to compute local gyrification index.

Cortical folding (gyrification) is determined during the first months of life, so that adverse events occurring during this period leave traces that will be identifiable at any age. As recently reviewed by Mangin and colleagues(2), several methods exist to quantify different characteristics of gyrification. For instance, sulcal morphometry can be used to measure shape descriptors such as the depth, length or indices of inter-hemispheric asymmetry(3). These geometrical properties have the advantage of being easy to interpret. However, sulcal morphometry tightly relies on the accurate identification of a given set of sulci and hence provides a fragmented description of gyrification. A more fine-grained quantification of gyrification can be achieved with curvature-based measurements, where smoothed absolute mean curvature is typically computed at thousands of points over the cortical surface(4). The curvature is however not straightforward to comprehend, as it remains unclear if there is any direct relationship between the curvedness and a biologically meaningful correlate such as cortical volume or surface. To address the diverse issues raised by the measurement of cortical folding, we previously developed an algorithm to quantify local gyrification with an exquisite spatial resolution and of simple interpretation. Our method is inspired of the Gyrification Index(5), a method originally used in comparative neuroanatomy to evaluate the cortical folding differences across species. In our implementation, which we name local Gyrification Index (lGI(1)), we measure the amount of cortex buried within the sulcal folds as compared with the amount of visible cortex in circular regions of interest. Given that the cortex grows primarily through radial expansion(6), our method was specifically designed to identify early defects of cortical development. In this article, we detail the computation of local Gyrification Index, which is now freely distributed as a part of the FreeSurfer Software (http://surfer.nmr.mgh.harvard.edu/, Martinos Center for Biomedical Imaging, Massachusetts General Hospital). FreeSurfer provides a set of automated reconstruction tools of the brain's cortical surface from structural MRI data. The cortical surface extracted in the native space of the images with sub-millimeter accuracy is then further used for the creation of an outer surface, which will serve as a basis for the lGI calculation. A circular region of interest is then delineated on the outer surface, and its corresponding region of interest on the cortical surface is identified using a matching algorithm as described in our validation study(1). This process is repeatedly iterated with largely overlapping regions of interest, resulting in cortical maps of gyrification for subsequent statistical comparisons (Fig. 1). Of note, another measurement of local gyrification with a similar inspiration was proposed by Toro and colleagues(7), where the folding index at each point is computed as the ratio of the cortical area contained in a sphere divided by the area of a disc with the same radius. The two implementations differ in that the one by Toro et al. is based on Euclidian distances and thus considers discontinuous patches of cortical area, whereas ours uses a strict geodesic algorithm and include only the continuous patch of cortical area opening at the brain surface in a circular region of interest.

Bayes factor for investigative assessment of selected handwriting features

This paper extends previous research [1] on the use of multivariate continuous data in comparative handwriting examinations, notably for gender classification. A database has been constructed by analyzing the contour shape of loop characters of type a and d by means of Fourier analysis, which allows characters to be described in a global way by a set of variables (e.g., Fourier descriptors). Sample handwritings were collected from right- and left-handed female and male writers. The results reported in this paper provide further arguments in support of the view that investigative settings in forensic science represent an area of application for which the Bayesian approach offers a logical framework. In particular, the Bayes factor is computed for settings that focus on inference of gender and handedness of the author of an incriminated handwritten text. An emphasis is placed on comparing the efficiency for investigative purposes of characters a and d.