How Party Linkages Shape Austerity Politics: Clientelism and Fiscal Adjustment in Greece and Portugal during the Eurozone Crisis

Drawing on an analysis of austerity reforms in Greece and Portugal during the sovereign debt crisis from 2009 onwards, we show how the nature of the linkages between parties and citizens shapes party strategies of fiscal retrenchment. We argue that parties which rely to a greater extent on the selective distribution of state resources to mobilize electoral support (clientelistic linkages) are more reluctant to agree to fiscal retrenchment because their own electoral survival depends on their ability to control state budgets to reward clients. In Greece, where parties relied extensively on these clientelistic linkages, austerity reforms have been characterized by recurring conflicts and disagreements between the main parties, as well as a fundamental transformation of the party system. By contrast, in Portugal, where parties relied less on clientelistic strategies, austerity reforms have been more consensual because fiscal retrenchment challenged to a lesser extent the electoral base of the mainstream parties.

Efficacité a court et moyen termes des traitements d'urgence-crise pour couples et families: résultats et perspectives [Short and medium-term effectiveness of the emergency-crisis treatments for couples and families: results and perspectives].

From 2007 to 2010, the emergency-crisis unit of the Couple and Family Consultation Unit -UCCF (West Psychiatric Service, Prangins Psychiatric Hospital, Psychiatric Department of CHUV) has carried out a research about the relevance and usefulness of emergency-crisis, systemic-oriented treatments, for deeply distressed couples and families. Besides epidemiologic data, we present results demonstrating the efficiency of those treatments, both at short-term and at a one year's range. The global impact of such treatments in terms of public health, but also economical issues, make us believe that they should be fully included in the new trend of psychiatric ambulatory care, into the social net.

Three essays in international finance

Executive Summary The first essay of this dissertation investigates whether greater exchange rate uncertainty (i.e., variation over time in the exchange rate) fosters or depresses the foreign investment of multinational firms. In addition to the direct capital financing it supplies, foreign investment can be a source of valuable technology and know-how, which can have substantial positive effects on a host country's economic growth. Thus, it is critically important for policy makers and central bankers, among others, to understand how multinationals base their investment decisions on the characteristics of foreign exchange markets. In this essay, I first develop a theoretical framework to improve our knowledge regarding how the aggregate level of foreign investment responds to exchange rate uncertainty when an economy consists of many firms, each of which is making decisions. The analysis predicts a U-shaped effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the total level of foreign investment of the economy. That is, the effect is negative for low levels of uncertainty and positive for higher levels of uncertainty. This pattern emerges because the relationship between exchange rate volatility and 'the probability of investment is negative for firms with low productivity at home (i.e., firms that find it profitable to invest abroad) and the relationship is positive for firms with high productivity at home (i.e., firms that prefer exporting their product). This finding stands in sharp contrast to predictions in the existing literature that consider a single firm's decision to invest in a unique project. The main contribution of this research is to show that the aggregation over many firms produces a U-shaped pattern between exchange rate uncertainty and the probability of investment. Using data from industrialized countries for the period of 1982-2002, this essay offers a comprehensive empirical analysis that provides evidence in support of the theoretical prediction. In the second essay, I aim to explain the time variation in sovereign credit risk, which captures the risk that a government may be unable to repay its debt. The importance of correctly evaluating such a risk is illustrated by the central role of sovereign debt in previous international lending crises. In addition, sovereign debt is the largest asset class in emerging markets. In this essay, I provide a pricing formula for the evaluation of sovereign credit risk in which the decision to default on sovereign debt is made by the government. The pricing formula explains the variation across time in daily credit spreads - a widely used measure of credit risk - to a degree not offered by existing theoretical and empirical models. I use information on a country's stock market to compute the prevailing sovereign credit spread in that country. The pricing formula explains a substantial fraction of the time variation in daily credit spread changes for Brazil, Mexico, Peru, and Russia for the 1998-2008 period, particularly during the recent subprime crisis. I also show that when a government incentive to default is allowed to depend on current economic conditions, one can best explain the level of credit spreads, especially during the recent period of financial distress. In the third essay, I show that the risk of sovereign default abroad can produce adverse consequences for the U.S. equity market through a decrease in returns and an increase in volatility. The risk of sovereign default, which is no longer limited to emerging economies, has recently become a major concern for financial markets. While sovereign debt plays an increasing role in today's financial environment, the effects of sovereign credit risk on the U.S. financial markets have been largely ignored in the literature. In this essay, I develop a theoretical framework that explores how the risk of sovereign default abroad helps explain the level and the volatility of U.S. equity returns. The intuition for this effect is that negative economic shocks deteriorate the fiscal situation of foreign governments, thereby increasing the risk of a sovereign default that would trigger a local contraction in economic growth. The increased risk of an economic slowdown abroad amplifies the direct effect of these shocks on the level and the volatility of equity returns in the U.S. through two channels. The first channel involves a decrease in the future earnings of U.S. exporters resulting from unfavorable adjustments to the exchange rate. The second channel involves investors' incentives to rebalance their portfolios toward safer assets, which depresses U.S. equity prices. An empirical estimation of the model with monthly data for the 1994-2008 period provides evidence that the risk of sovereign default abroad generates a strong leverage effect during economic downturns, which helps to substantially explain the level and the volatility of U.S. equity returns.

Being Recognizable in Order to Overcome the Crisis: The Ambivalence of Islamis Actor's Struggle for Visibility in France and Switzerland

Since the 1990s, and especially since the early 2000s, passionate controversies (Göle 2014) have emerged around the new visibility of Islam in the public sphere across Europe. These controversies, which crystallized in the headscarf debate, seem even more disturbing given that women who wear it are often young, urban and educated: that is to say, "modern" (Göle 1997, 2011). Indeed, these young women wearing the hijab seem to disrupt the narrative of Western modernity, including the decline in religious practice (Hervieu-Léger 2006) or the narration of the process of secularization in Europe. It is in the context of these controversies that Islam is built imaginatively as a "public problem" that has to be "solved" (Behloul 2012). Thus, this social construction of the Muslim other has nurtured an assessment of the failure of multiculturalism in some European countries and a process of convergence around a single model of civic integration in Europe (Behloul 2012, Joppke 2004, 2010).

Consultation d'urgence/crise pour couples et families: motifs d'urgence et évaluation du traitement [Couples and families emergency/crisis consultation: emergency patterns and treatment assessment]

Since the opening in 2003 of the Couple & Family Consultation Unit (UCCF) at Prangins Hospital, we have met urgent demands and observed that the suffering systems (i.e., couples and families) couldn't face any waiting period. So in 2007 an Emergency/Crisis Facility was created, based on the hypothesis that there is no contra-indication to systemic emergency care, if one understands and structures both crisis and treatment. We studied the suffering population in demand and the emergency/crisis issues and assessed therapy efficiency. Then we observed that treating suffering systems in emergency does produce therapeutic gain in terms of crisis resolution and patients' satisfaction. Those treatments refer to public health issues, as considered the human, social and financial cost of couples/families dysfunctions.

The oceanic base of slope record of the Permian-Triassic crisis: view from Tethys (Oman)

The Oman Mountains provide some of the best sections of Permian and Triassic sediments from ocean sea floor to base-of-slope environments related to the distal South Tethyan margin. The central part of the range exposes the Buday'ah section of oceanic sediments in the so-called "Hawasina allochtons". The locality of Wadi Maqam in the north-western part of the Oman Mountains is among places where the thick Permian-Triassic base-of-slope sediments is exposed (Baud et al., 2001). Overlying 400 m of middle Permian limestones and dolomites, the upper Permian sediments consist of 50 m of ≈ 10 cm thick beds of cherts and dolomites rich in sponge spicules. The top of the Permian units is well bioturbated lime mudstone-wackestone, devoid of cherts and dated as late Changhsingian (Krystyn in Richoz et al., 2005). The boundary yellow shales are overlain by very thinly bedded, laminated microbial platy lime mudstone with H. parvus. The dramatic loss of the burrowing infauna indicates the appearance of oxygen-poor water. These Induan sediments are about 25 m thick and show at the top the first calcirudites, commonly clast-supported (edge-wise conglomerates), and are characterized by tabular clasts representing the sub- in situ reworking of the laminated, platy calcilutite. The very thick Smithian overlying litho-unit (up to 900 m) marks the onset on the base-of-slope of a deep-marine basin in which carbonate submarine fan deposits developed This very thick unit consists essentially of platy limestones, calcarenites and calcirudites. It comprises mainly grey-beige calcilutite, laminated and flaggy, interbedded with sparse beds of fine-grained calcarenite in cm beds. Channelized beds of intraformational calcirudite are also part of this succession which constitutes the greater part of the outcrop available. During the Spathian to Anisian, the sedimentation changes to terrigenous mudstone and siltstone that ended with Ladinian radiolarites.

Adrenal crisis presenting as hypoglycemic coma.

An 18-month-old male infant presented with hypoglycemic coma and clinical signs of bronchopneumonia. He was suspected of suffering from septic shock. The patient progressed to irreversible multiple organ failure before the diagnosis of adrenal crisis was established. Plasma levels of ACTH and cortisol remained undetectable. Renin and aldosterone were normal. An autopsy failed to demonstrate any adrenal gland cortical tissue. Immunohistochemical staining demonstrated the presence of all pituitary hormones except ACTH, establishing the diagnosis of isolated ACTH deficiency. Intensive care clinicians should consider adrenal crisis in non-diabetic children with hypoglycemia and rapid circulatory deterioration.