A deterministic model to assess the impact of AIDS interventions in countries with generalized HIV epidemic. An application to Botswana

General introductionThe Human Immunodeficiency/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic, despite recent encouraging announcements by the World Health Organization (WHO) is still today one of the world's major health care challenges.The present work lies in the field of health care management, in particular, we aim to evaluate the behavioural and non-behavioural interventions against HIV/AIDS in developing countries through a deterministic simulation model, both in human and economic terms. We will focus on assessing the effectiveness of the antiretroviral therapies (ART) in heterosexual populations living in lesser developed countries where the epidemic has generalized (formerly defined by the WHO as type II countries). The model is calibrated using Botswana as a case study, however our model can be adapted to other countries with similar transmission dynamics.The first part of this thesis consists of reviewing the main mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general but with a focus on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. We also review deterministic models assessing HIV interventions with a focus on models aimed at African countries. This review helps us to recognize the need for a generic model and allows us to define a typical structure of such a generic deterministic model.The second part describes the main feed-back loops underlying the dynamics of HIV transmission. These loops represent the foundation of our model. This part also provides a detailed description of the model, including the various infected and non-infected population groups, the type of sexual relationships, the infection matrices, important factors impacting HIV transmission such as condom use, other sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and male circumcision. We also included in the model a dynamic life expectancy calculator which, to our knowledge, is a unique feature allowing more realistic cost-efficiency calculations. Various intervention scenarios are evaluated using the model, each of them including ART in combination with other interventions, namely: circumcision, campaigns aimed at behavioral change (Abstain, Be faithful or use Condoms also named ABC campaigns), and treatment of other STD. A cost efficiency analysis (CEA) is performed for each scenario. The CEA consists of measuring the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. This part also describes the model calibration and validation, including a sensitivity analysis.The third part reports the results and discusses the model limitations. In particular, we argue that the combination of ART and ABC campaigns and ART and treatment of other STDs are the most cost-efficient interventions through 2020. The main model limitations include modeling the complexity of sexual relationships, omission of international migration and ignoring variability in infectiousness according to the AIDS stage.The fourth part reviews the major contributions of the thesis and discusses model generalizability and flexibility. Finally, we conclude that by selecting the adequate interventions mix, policy makers can significantly reduce the adult prevalence in Botswana in the coming twenty years providing the country and its donors can bear the cost involved.Part I: Context and literature reviewIn this section, after a brief introduction to the general literature we focus in section two on the key mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general with a focus on HIV transmission. Section three provides a description of HIV policy models, with a focus on deterministic models. This leads us in section four to envision the need for a generic deterministic HIV policy model and briefly describe the structure of such a generic model applicable to countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic, also defined as pattern II countries by the WHO.

Regional deterministic characterization of fracture networks and its application to GIS-based rock fall risk assessment

The study investigates the possibility to incorporate fracture intensity and block geometry as spatially continuous parameters in GIS-based systems. For this purpose, a deterministic method has been implemented to estimate block size (Bloc3D) and joint frequency (COLTOP). In addition to measuring the block size, the Bloc3D Method provides a 3D representation of the shape of individual blocks. These two methods were applied using field measurements (joint set orientation and spacing) performed over a large field area, in the Swiss Alps. This area is characterized by a complex geology, a number of different rock masses and varying degrees of metamorphism. The spatial variability of the parameters was evaluated with regard to lithology and major faults. A model incorporating these measurements and observations into a GIS system to assess the risk associated with rock falls is proposed. The analysis concludes with a discussion on the feasibility of such an application in regularly and irregularly jointed rock masses, with persistent and impersistent discontinuities.

Melanoma patients respond to a cytotoxic T lymphocyte-defined self-peptide with diverse and nonoverlapping T-cell receptor repertoires.

HLA-A2+ melanoma patients develop naturally a strong CD8+ T cell response to a self-peptide derived from Melan-A. Here, we have used HLA-A2/peptide tetramers to isolate Melan-A-specific T cells from tumor-infiltrated lymph nodes of two HLA-A2+ melanoma patients and analyzed their TCR beta chain V segment and complementarity determining region 3 length and sequence. We found a broad diversity in Melan-A-specific immune T-cell receptor (TCR) repertoires in terms of both TCR beta chain variable gene segment usage and clonal composition. In addition, immune TCR repertoires selected in the patients were not overlapping. In contrast to previously characterized CD8+ T-cell responses to viral infections, this study provides evidence against usage of highly restricted TCR repertoire in the natural response to a self-differentiation tumor antigen.

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Primary ciliary dyskinesia (PCD) is an autosomal recessive disease with an incidence estimated between 1:2,000 and 1:40,000. Ciliated epithelia line the airways, nasal and sinus cavities, Eustachian tube and fallopian tubes. Congenital abnormalities of ciliary structure and function impair mucociliary clearance. As a consequence, patients present with chronic sinopulmonary infections, recurrent glue ear and female subfertility. Similarities in the ultrastructure of respiratory cilia, nodal cilia and sperm result in patients with PCD also presenting with male infertility, abnormalities of left-right asymmetry (most commonly situs inversus totalis) and congenital heart disease. Early diagnosis is essential to ensure specialist management of the respiratory and otological complications of PCD. Diagnostic tests focus on analysis of ciliary function and electron microscopy structure. Analysis is technically difficult and labour intensive. It requires expertise for interpretation, restricting diagnosis to specialist centres. Management is currently based on the consensus of experts, and there is a pressing need for randomised clinical trials to inform treatment.

Physical activity attenuates the influence of FTO variants on obesity risk: a meta-analysis of 218,166 adults and 19,268 children.

BACKGROUND: The FTO gene harbors the strongest known susceptibility locus for obesity. While many individual studies have suggested that physical activity (PA) may attenuate the effect of FTO on obesity risk, other studies have not been able to confirm this interaction. To confirm or refute unambiguously whether PA attenuates the association of FTO with obesity risk, we meta-analyzed data from 45 studies of adults (n = 218,166) and nine studies of children and adolescents (n = 19,268). METHODS AND FINDINGS: All studies identified to have data on the FTO rs9939609 variant (or any proxy [r(2)>0.8]) and PA were invited to participate, regardless of ethnicity or age of the participants. PA was standardized by categorizing it into a dichotomous variable (physically inactive versus active) in each study. Overall, 25% of adults and 13% of children were categorized as inactive. Interaction analyses were performed within each study by including the FTO×PA interaction term in an additive model, adjusting for age and sex. Subsequently, random effects meta-analysis was used to pool the interaction terms. In adults, the minor (A-) allele of rs9939609 increased the odds of obesity by 1.23-fold/allele (95% CI 1.20-1.26), but PA attenuated this effect (p(interaction)  = 0.001). More specifically, the minor allele of rs9939609 increased the odds of obesity less in the physically active group (odds ratio  = 1.22/allele, 95% CI 1.19-1.25) than in the inactive group (odds ratio  = 1.30/allele, 95% CI 1.24-1.36). No such interaction was found in children and adolescents. CONCLUSIONS: The association of the FTO risk allele with the odds of obesity is attenuated by 27% in physically active adults, highlighting the importance of PA in particular in those genetically predisposed to obesity.

Kangaroo mother care diminishes pain from heel lance in very preterm neonates: a crossover trial.

BACKGROUND: Skin-to-skin contact, or kangaroo mother care (KMC) has been shown to be efficacious in diminishing pain response to heel lance in full term and moderately preterm neonates. The purpose of this study was to determine if KMC would also be efficacious in very preterm neonates. METHODS: Preterm neonates (n = 61) between 28 0/7 and 31 6/7 weeks gestational age in three Level III NICU's in Canada comprised the sample. A single-blind randomized crossover design was employed. In the experimental condition, the infant was held in KMC for 15 minutes prior to and throughout heel lance procedure. In the control condition, the infant was in prone position swaddled in a blanket in the incubator. The primary outcome was the Premature Infant Pain Profile (PIPP), which is comprised of three facial actions, maximum heart rate, minimum oxygen saturation levels from baseline in 30-second blocks from heel lance. The secondary outcome was time to recover, defined as heart rate return to baseline. Continuous video, heart rate and oxygen saturation monitoring were recorded with event markers during the procedure and were subsequently analyzed. Repeated measures analysis-of-variance was employed to generate results. RESULTS: PIPP scores at 90 seconds post lance were significantly lower in the KMC condition (8.871 (95%CI 7.852-9.889) versus 10.677 (95%CI 9.563-11.792) p < .001) and non-significant mean differences ranging from 1.2 to1.8. favoring KMC condition at 30, 60 and 120 seconds. Time to recovery was significantly shorter, by a minute(123 seconds (95%CI 103-142) versus 193 seconds (95%CI 158-227). Facial actions were highly significantly lower across all points in time reaching a two-fold difference by 120 seconds post-lance and heart rate was significantly lower across the first 90 seconds in the KMC condition. CONCLUSION: Very preterm neonates appear to have endogenous mechanisms elicited through skin-to-skin maternal contact that decrease pain response, but not as powerfully as in older preterm neonates. The shorter recovery time in KMC is clinically important in helping maintain homeostasis. TRIAL REGISTRATION: (Current Controlled Trials) ISRCTN63551708.

Which subgroup of patients with rheumatoid arthritis benefits from switching to rituximab versus alternative anti-tumour necrosis factor (TNF) agents after previous failure of an anti-TNF agent?

BACKGROUND: Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) with an inadequate response to TNF antagonists (aTNFs) may switch to an alternative aTNF or start treatment from a different class of drugs, such as rituximab (RTX). It remains unclear in which clinical settings these therapeutic strategies offer most benefit. OBJECTIVE: To analyse the effectiveness of RTX versus alternative aTNFs on RA disease activity in different subgroups of patients. METHODS: A prospective cohort study of patients with RA who discontinued at least one aTNF and subsequently received either RTX or an alternative aTNF, nested within the Swiss RA registry (SCQM-RA) was carried out. The primary outcome, longitudinal improvement in 28-joint count Disease Activity Score (DAS28), was analysed using multivariate regression models for longitudinal data and adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS: Of the 318 patients with RA included; 155 received RTX and 163 received an alternative aTNF. The relative benefit of RTX varied with the type of prior aTNF failure: when the motive for switching was ineffectiveness to previous aTNFs, the longitudinal improvement in DAS28 was significantly better with RTX than with an alternative aTNF (p = 0.03; at 6 months, -1.34 (95% CI -1.54 to -1.15) vs -0.93 (95% CI -1.28 to -0.59), respectively). When the motive for switching was other causes, the longitudinal improvement in DAS28 was similar for RTX and alternative aTNFs (p = 0.40). These results were not significantly modified by the number of previous aTNF failures, the type of aTNF switches, or the presence of co-treatment with a disease-modifying antirheumatic drug. CONCLUSION: This observational study suggests that in patients with RA who have stopped a previous aTNF treatment because of ineffectiveness changing to RTX is more effective than switching to an alternative aTNF.

HCF-1 is cleaved in the active site of O-GlcNAc transferase.

Host cell factor-1 (HCF-1), a transcriptional co-regulator of human cell-cycle progression, undergoes proteolytic maturation in which any of six repeated sequences is cleaved by the nutrient-responsive glycosyltransferase, O-linked N-acetylglucosamine (O-GlcNAc) transferase (OGT). We report that the tetratricopeptide-repeat domain of O-GlcNAc transferase binds the carboxyl-terminal portion of an HCF-1 proteolytic repeat such that the cleavage region lies in the glycosyltransferase active site above uridine diphosphate-GlcNAc. The conformation is similar to that of a glycosylation-competent peptide substrate. Cleavage occurs between cysteine and glutamate residues and results in a pyroglutamate product. Conversion of the cleavage site glutamate into serine converts an HCF-1 proteolytic repeat into a glycosylation substrate. Thus, protein glycosylation and HCF-1 cleavage occur in the same active site.

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution.

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms.

Enhancing the vertical resolution of surface georadar data

There are far-reaching conceptual similarities between bi-static surface georadar and post-stack, "zero-offset" seismic reflection data, which is expressed in largely identical processing flows. One important difference is, however, that standard deconvolution algorithms routinely used to enhance the vertical resolution of seismic data are notoriously problematic or even detrimental to the overall signal quality when applied to surface georadar data. We have explored various options for alleviating this problem and have tested them on a geologically well-constrained surface georadar dataset. Standard stochastic and direct deterministic deconvolution approaches proved to be largely unsatisfactory. While least-squares-type deterministic deconvolution showed some promise, the inherent uncertainties involved in estimating the source wavelet introduced some artificial "ringiness". In contrast, we found spectral balancing approaches to be effective, practical and robust means for enhancing the vertical resolution of surface georadar data, particularly, but not exclusively, in the uppermost part of the georadar section, which is notoriously plagued by the interference of the direct air- and groundwaves. For the data considered in this study, it can be argued that band-limited spectral blueing may provide somewhat better results than standard band-limited spectral whitening, particularly in the uppermost part of the section affected by the interference of the air- and groundwaves. Interestingly, this finding is consistent with the fact that the amplitude spectrum resulting from least-squares-type deterministic deconvolution is characterized by a systematic enhancement of higher frequencies at the expense of lower frequencies and hence is blue rather than white. It is also consistent with increasing evidence that spectral "blueness" is a seemingly universal, albeit enigmatic, property of the distribution of reflection coefficients in the Earth. Our results therefore indicate that spectral balancing techniques in general and spectral blueing in particular represent simple, yet effective means of enhancing the vertical resolution of surface georadar data and, in many cases, could turn out to be a preferable alternative to standard deconvolution approaches.

Resistance to oxidative stress is associated with metastasis in mucocutaneous leishmaniasis.

Mucocutaneous leishmaniasis (MCL) in South and Central America is characterized by the dissemination (metastasis) of Leishmania Viannia subgenus parasites from a cutaneous lesion to nasopharyngeal tissues. Little is known about the pathogenesis of MCL, especially with regard to the virulence of the parasites and the process of metastatic dissemination. We previously examined the functional relationship between cytoplasmic peroxiredoxin and metastatic phenotype using highly, infrequently, and nonmetastatic clones isolated from an L. (V.) guyanensis strain previously shown to be highly metastatic in golden hamsters. Distinct forms of cytoplasmic peroxiredoxin were identified and found to be associated with the metastatic phenotype. We report here that peroxidase activity in the presence of hydrogen peroxide and infectivity differs between metastatic and nonmetastatic L. (V.) guyanensis clones. After hydrogen peroxide treatment or heat shock, peroxiredoxin was detected preferentially as dimers in metastatic L. (V.) guyanensis clones and in L. (V.) panamensis strains from patients with MCL, compared with nonmetastatic parasites. These data provide evidence that resistance to the first microbicidal response of the host cell by Leishmania promastigotes is linked to peroxiredoxin conformation and may be relevant to intracellular survival and persistence, which are prerequisites for the development of metastatic disease.

A peripheral dose calculation model for estimating second cancer risk after breast radiotherapy

AbstractBreast cancer is one of the most common cancers affecting one in eight women during their lives. Survival rates have increased steadily thanks to early diagnosis with mammography screening and more efficient treatment strategies. Post-operative radiation therapy is a standard of care in the management of breast cancer and has been shown to reduce efficiently both local recurrence rate and breast cancer mortality. Radiation therapy is however associated with some late effects for long-term survivors. Radiation-induced secondary cancer is a relatively rare but severe late effect of radiation therapy. Currently, radiotherapy plans are essentially optimized to maximize tumor control and minimize late deterministic effects (tissue reactions) that are mainly associated with high doses (» 1 Gy). With improved cure rates and new radiation therapy technologies, it is also important to evaluate and minimize secondary cancer risks for different treatment techniques. This is a particularly challenging task due to the large uncertainties in the dose-response relationship.In contrast with late deterministic effects, secondary cancers may be associated with much lower doses and therefore out-of-field doses (also called peripheral doses) that are typically inferior to 1 Gy need to be determined accurately. Out-of-field doses result from patient scatter and head scatter from the treatment unit. These doses are particularly challenging to compute and we characterized it by Monte Carlo (MC) calculation. A detailed MC model of the Siemens Primus linear accelerator has been thoroughly validated with measurements. We investigated the accuracy of such a model for retrospective dosimetry in epidemiological studies on secondary cancers. Considering that patients in such large studies could be treated on a variety of machines, we assessed the uncertainty in reconstructed peripheral dose due to the variability of peripheral dose among various linac geometries. For large open fields (> 10x10 cm2), the uncertainty would be less than 50%, but for small fields and wedged fields the uncertainty in reconstructed dose could rise up to a factor of 10. It was concluded that such a model could be used for conventional treatments using large open fields only.The MC model of the Siemens Primus linac was then used to compare out-of-field doses for different treatment techniques in a female whole-body CT-based phantom. Current techniques such as conformai wedged-based radiotherapy and hybrid IMRT were investigated and compared to older two-dimensional radiotherapy techniques. MC doses were also compared to those of a commercial Treatment Planning System (TPS). While the TPS is routinely used to determine the dose to the contralateral breast and the ipsilateral lung which are mostly out of the treatment fields, we have shown that these doses may be highly inaccurate depending on the treatment technique investigated. MC shows that hybrid IMRT is dosimetrically similar to three-dimensional wedge-based radiotherapy within the field, but offers substantially reduced doses to out-of-field healthy organs.Finally, many different approaches to risk estimations extracted from the literature were applied to the calculated MC dose distribution. Absolute risks varied substantially as did the ratio of risk between two treatment techniques, reflecting the large uncertainties involved with current risk models. Despite all these uncertainties, the hybrid IMRT investigated resulted in systematically lower cancer risks than any of the other treatment techniques. More epidemiological studies with accurate dosimetry are required in the future to construct robust risk models. In the meantime, any treatment strategy that reduces out-of-field doses to healthy organs should be investigated. Electron radiotherapy might offer interesting possibilities with this regard.RésuméLe cancer du sein affecte une femme sur huit au cours de sa vie. Grâce au dépistage précoce et à des thérapies de plus en plus efficaces, le taux de guérison a augmenté au cours du temps. La radiothérapie postopératoire joue un rôle important dans le traitement du cancer du sein en réduisant le taux de récidive et la mortalité. Malheureusement, la radiothérapie peut aussi induire des toxicités tardives chez les patients guéris. En particulier, les cancers secondaires radio-induits sont une complication rare mais sévère de la radiothérapie. En routine clinique, les plans de radiothérapie sont essentiellement optimisées pour un contrôle local le plus élevé possible tout en minimisant les réactions tissulaires tardives qui sont essentiellement associées avec des hautes doses (» 1 Gy). Toutefois, avec l'introduction de différentes nouvelles techniques et avec l'augmentation des taux de survie, il devient impératif d'évaluer et de minimiser les risques de cancer secondaire pour différentes techniques de traitement. Une telle évaluation du risque est une tâche ardue étant donné les nombreuses incertitudes liées à la relation dose-risque.Contrairement aux effets tissulaires, les cancers secondaires peuvent aussi être induits par des basses doses dans des organes qui se trouvent hors des champs d'irradiation. Ces organes reçoivent des doses périphériques typiquement inférieures à 1 Gy qui résultent du diffusé du patient et du diffusé de l'accélérateur. Ces doses sont difficiles à calculer précisément, mais les algorithmes Monte Carlo (MC) permettent de les estimer avec une bonne précision. Un modèle MC détaillé de l'accélérateur Primus de Siemens a été élaboré et validé avec des mesures. La précision de ce modèle a également été déterminée pour la reconstruction de dose en épidémiologie. Si on considère que les patients inclus dans de larges cohortes sont traités sur une variété de machines, l'incertitude dans la reconstruction de dose périphérique a été étudiée en fonction de la variabilité de la dose périphérique pour différents types d'accélérateurs. Pour de grands champs (> 10x10 cm ), l'incertitude est inférieure à 50%, mais pour de petits champs et des champs filtrés, l'incertitude de la dose peut monter jusqu'à un facteur 10. En conclusion, un tel modèle ne peut être utilisé que pour les traitements conventionnels utilisant des grands champs.Le modèle MC de l'accélérateur Primus a été utilisé ensuite pour déterminer la dose périphérique pour différentes techniques dans un fantôme corps entier basé sur des coupes CT d'une patiente. Les techniques actuelles utilisant des champs filtrés ou encore l'IMRT hybride ont été étudiées et comparées par rapport aux techniques plus anciennes. Les doses calculées par MC ont été comparées à celles obtenues d'un logiciel de planification commercial (TPS). Alors que le TPS est utilisé en routine pour déterminer la dose au sein contralatéral et au poumon ipsilatéral qui sont principalement hors des faisceaux, nous avons montré que ces doses peuvent être plus ou moins précises selon la technTque étudiée. Les calculs MC montrent que la technique IMRT est dosimétriquement équivalente à celle basée sur des champs filtrés à l'intérieur des champs de traitement, mais offre une réduction importante de la dose aux organes périphériques.Finalement différents modèles de risque ont été étudiés sur la base des distributions de dose calculées par MC. Les risques absolus et le rapport des risques entre deux techniques de traitement varient grandement, ce qui reflète les grandes incertitudes liées aux différents modèles de risque. Malgré ces incertitudes, on a pu montrer que la technique IMRT offrait une réduction du risque systématique par rapport aux autres techniques. En attendant des données épidémiologiques supplémentaires sur la relation dose-risque, toute technique offrant une réduction des doses périphériques aux organes sains mérite d'être étudiée. La radiothérapie avec des électrons offre à ce titre des possibilités intéressantes.

Reduced fronto-temporal and limbic connectivity in the 22q11.2 deletion syndrome: vulnerability markers for developing schizophrenia?

The 22q11.2 deletion syndrome (22q11DS) is a widely recognized genetic model allowing the study of neuroanatomical biomarkers that underlie the risk for developing schizophrenia. Recent advances in magnetic resonance image analyses enable the examination of structural connectivity integrity, scarcely used in the 22q11DS field. This framework potentially provides evidence for the disconnectivity hypothesis of schizophrenia in this high-risk population. In the present study, we quantify the whole brain white matter connections in 22q11DS using deterministic tractography. Diffusion Tensor Imaging was acquired in 30 affected patients and 30 age- and gender-matched healthy participants. The Human Connectome technique was applied to register white matter streamlines with cortical anatomy. The number of fibers (streamlines) was used as a measure of connectivity for comparison between groups at the global, lobar and regional level. All statistics were corrected for age and gender. Results showed a 10% reduction of the total number of fibers in patients compared to controls. After correcting for this global reduction, preserved connectivity was found within the right frontal and right parietal lobes. The relative increase in the number of fibers was located mainly in the right hemisphere. Conversely, an excessive reduction of connectivity was observed within and between limbic structures. Finally, a disproportionate reduction was shown at the level of fibers connecting the left fronto-temporal regions. We could therefore speculate that the observed disruption to fronto-temporal connectivity in individuals at risk of schizophrenia implies that fronto-temporal disconnectivity, frequently implicated in the pathogenesis of schizophrenia, could precede the onset of symptoms and, as such, constitutes a biomarker of the vulnerability to develop psychosis. On the contrary, connectivity alterations in the limbic lobe play a role in a wide range of psychiatric disorders and therefore seem to be less specific in defining schizophrenia.