Conditioning of stochastic 3-D fracture networks to hydrological and geophysical data

The geometry and connectivity of fractures exert a strong influence on the flow and transport properties of fracture networks. We present a novel approach to stochastically generate three-dimensional discrete networks of connected fractures that are conditioned to hydrological and geophysical data. A hierarchical rejection sampling algorithm is used to draw realizations from the posterior probability density function at different conditioning levels. The method is applied to a well-studied granitic formation using data acquired within two boreholes located 6 m apart. The prior models include 27 fractures with their geometry (position and orientation) bounded by information derived from single-hole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data acquired during saline tracer tests and optical televiewer logs. Eleven cross-hole hydraulic connections between fractures in neighboring boreholes and the order in which the tracer arrives at different fractures are used for conditioning. Furthermore, the networks are conditioned to the observed relative hydraulic importance of the different hydraulic connections by numerically simulating the flow response. Among the conditioning data considered, constraints on the relative flow contributions were the most effective in determining the variability among the network realizations. Nevertheless, we find that the posterior model space is strongly determined by the imposed prior bounds. Strong prior bounds were derived from GPR measurements and helped to make the approach computationally feasible. We analyze a set of 230 posterior realizations that reproduce all data given their uncertainties assuming the same uniform transmissivity in all fractures. The posterior models provide valuable statistics on length scales and density of connected fractures, as well as their connectivity. In an additional analysis, effective transmissivity estimates of the posterior realizations indicate a strong influence of the DFN structure, in that it induces large variations of equivalent transmissivities between realizations. The transmissivity estimates agree well with previous estimates at the site based on pumping, flowmeter and temperature data.

Prise en charge des troubles oculomoteurs après effraction iatrogène de l'orbite au cours d'interventions sinusiennes endoscopiques [Management of motility disorders secondary to iatrogenic orbital fracture during endoscopic sinus surgery.]

PURPOSE: Orbital wall fracture may occur during endoscopic sinus surgery, resulting in oculomotor disorders. We report the management of four cases presenting with this surgical complication. METHODS: A non-comparative observational retrospective study was carried out on four patients presenting with diplopia after endoscopic ethmoidal sinus surgery. All patients underwent full ophthalmologic and orthoptic examination as well as orbital imaging. RESULTS: All four patients presented with diplopia secondary to a medial rectus lesion confirmed by orbital imaging. A large horizontal deviation as well as limitation of adduction was present in all cases. Surgical management consisted of conventional recession-resection procedures in three cases and muscle transposition in one patient. A useful field of binocular single vision was restored in two of the four patients. CONCLUSION: Orbital injury may occur during endoscopic sinus surgery and cause diplopia, usually secondary to medial rectus involvement due to the proximity of this muscle to the lamina papyracea of the ethmoid bone. Surgical management is based on orbital imaging, duration of the lesion, evaluation of anterior segment vasculature, results of forced duction testing and intraoperative findings. In most cases, treatment is aimed at the symptoms rather than the cause, and the functional prognosis remains guarded.

Which screening strategy using BMD measurements would be most cost effective for hip fracture prevention in elderly women? A decision analysis based on a Markov model.

INTRODUCTION: Hip fractures are responsible for excessive mortality, decreasing the 5-year survival rate by about 20%. From an economic perspective, they represent a major source of expense, with direct costs in hospitalization, rehabilitation, and institutionalization. The incidence rate sharply increases after the age of 70, but it can be reduced in women aged 70-80 years by therapeutic interventions. Recent analyses suggest that the most efficient strategy is to implement such interventions in women at the age of 70 years. As several guidelines recommend bone mineral density (BMD) screening of postmenopausal women with clinical risk factors, our objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of two screening strategies applied to elderly women aged 70 years and older. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using decision-tree analysis and a Markov model. Two alternative strategies, one measuring BMD of all women, and one measuring BMD only of those having at least one risk factor, were compared with the reference strategy "no screening". Cost-effectiveness ratios were measured as cost per year gained without hip fracture. Most probabilities were based on data observed in EPIDOS, SEMOF and OFELY cohorts. RESULTS: In this model, which is mostly based on observed data, the strategy "screen all" was more cost effective than "screen women at risk." For one woman screened at the age of 70 and followed for 10 years, the incremental (additional) cost-effectiveness ratio of these two strategies compared with the reference was 4,235 euros and 8,290 euros, respectively. CONCLUSION: The results of this model, under the assumptions described in the paper, suggest that in women aged 70-80 years, screening all women with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) would be more effective than no screening or screening only women with at least one risk factor. Cost-effectiveness studies based on decision-analysis trees maybe useful tools for helping decision makers, and further models based on different assumptions should be performed to improve the level of evidence on cost-effectiveness ratios of the usual screening strategies for osteoporosis.

Comparison of two osteoporotic fracture management pathways: experience at 1 year

Introduction: Osteoporosis presenting as low-impact fractures to traumatology units is often undiagnosed and under-treated. Results from the Osteocare study in Lausanne (a nurse based intervention, passive pathway) showed that only 19% of patients received management for osteoporosis, and in the literature [1], the rate is between 10-25%. We have evaluated a different management concept, based on the systematic assessment of patients with osteoporotic fractures during and after hospitalization (active pathway). Methods: Inpatients admitted to the Department of Musculoskeletal Medicine for a fragility fracture were identified by a nurse according to a predefined questionnaire and were then clinically evaluated by a doctor. Based on the results, a management plan was proposed to the patients. Patients could choose between follow up either by their GP or by the Centre of Bone Disease of the CHUV. For patients who chose follow-up in our Centre, we assessed their adherence to medical follow-up 1 year inclusion. The results of patients who had been evaluated in our cohort between the 1 November 2008 and the 1 December 2009 were analysed. Results: 573 inpatients received specific management of their osteoporotic fracture over 18 months. The mean age was 77 y (31-99), 81% were women (203 hip fractures, 40 pelvis fractures, 101 arm fractures, 57 vertebral fractures, 63 ankle fractures, and 25 others sites). During the study period, 303 patients received a proposition of a specific treatment. 39 (13%) chose a follow up with the GP, 19 (6%) dead and 245 (81%) preferred a follow up in our Centre. After 1 year, 166 (67%) patients are under follow up in our outpatient clinic. Conclusion: With an active clinical pathway that starts during the hospitalization, consisting on a nursing evaluation followed by a medical consultation by an expert in osteoporosis, the adherence increased from 19% to 67% in terms of follow up. These results lead us to propose a consultation with a doctor experienced in osteoporosis after all osteoporotic fractures.

Propositions pratiques d'utilisation des ultrasons quantitatifs osseux dans le management de l'ostéoporose [Practical proposals for the use of quantitative bone ultrasound in the management of osteoporosis]

As an emerging alternative to DXA, there is a growing interest in the use of quantitative ultrasound (QUS) measurements for the non invasive assessment of fracture risk in the management of osteoporosis. While the potential of QUS in the management of osteoporosis have been highly recognized by the scientific community and granted by the majority of the international bone disease organizations, it becomes important to develop strategies how to use ultrasound clinically. Our paper is highlighting Swiss operational clinical propositions for 2 QUS devices sold in Switzerland, on how to use the QUS in the management of osteoporosis.

Fractures non traumatiques liées à la grossesse et à l'allaitement : s'agit-il toujours d'une ostéoporose? A propos de 2 cas

Introduction : L'ostéoporose et/ou les fractures liées à la grossesse sont souvent sous-diagnostiquées. Nous rapportons 2 cas de fractures diagnostiquées peu après l'accouchement de 2èmes grossesses. Patientes. Cas 1. Patiente de 30 ans présentant des dorso-lombalgies à la fin de sa 2ème grossesse. Une IRM après l'accouchement montre 2 fractures vertébrales (L1 et L2). Densité minérale osseuse (DMO): T-score colonne: -3.9 DS, col fémoral -1.7 DS et hanche totale -0.6 DS. Cas 2. Patiente de 32 ans, présentant des douleurs fessières à la fin de sa 2ème grossesse. L'IRM pelvienne après l'accouchement montre une fracture de l'aile sacrée droite S1-S3 et de l'aile sacrée gauche S1.DMO: T-score colonne -1.4 DS, col fémoral 0.2 DS et hanche totale 0.0 DS. La microarchitecture est normale (TBS 1.429). Nous retenons dans le 1er cas le diagnostic d'une ostéoporose fracturaire liée à la grossesse. De l'ibandronate trimestriel iv est prescrit. Dans le 2ème cas, au vu de la DMO quasi normale, de la trabéculométrie normale et du site atypique de la fracture, nous concluons à une fracture non ostéoporotique sur augmentation du stress mécanique lié à la grossesse. Aucun traitement à visée osseuse n'est prescrit. Discussion : " L'ostéoporose " liée à la grossesse et à l'allaitement se manifeste le plus souvent par des fractures vertébrales non traumatiques pendant le 3ème trimestre de la 1ère grossesse ou durant le post-partum. Une DMO et un bilan à la recherche d'une cause secondaire sont indispensables. Cette pathologie est sous-diagnostiquée, car les douleurs dorsolombaires sont souvent mises sur le compte d'une hyperlaxité ligamentaire physiologique liée aux hormones. Les facteurs de risque sont les mêmes que pour une ostéoporose post-ménopausique. Les apports bas en calcium et en vitamine D3 ainsi qu'un capital osseux moindre à la fin de l'adolescence seraient des facteurs prédisposants. La DMO lombaire diminue de 7.6 +/-0.1%, celle du corps entier de 3.9 +/-0.1% pendant la grossesse et l'allaitement. Habituellement on assiste à une récupération de la DMO dans les mois qui suivent la fin de l'allaitement. Conclusion : Devant des douleurs rachidiennes en fin de grossesse il faut évoquer une fracture ostéoporotique liée à la grossesse. La densitométrie osseuse peut aider au diagnostic même s'il faut l'interpréter prudemment dans les mois qui suivent l'accouchement. Il n'y a pas de consensus concernant le traitement spécifique.

Quantitative ultrasound of the heel and fracture risk assessment: an updated meta-analysis.

Meta-analysis of prospective studies shows that quantitative ultrasound of the heel using validated devices predicts risk of different types of fracture with similar performance across different devices and in elderly men and women. These predictions are independent of the risk estimates from hip DXA measures.Introduction Clinical utilisation of heel quantitative ultrasound (QUS) depends on its power to predict clinical fractures. This is particularly important in settings that have no access to DXA-derived bone density measurements. We aimed to assess the predictive power of heel QUS for fractures using a meta-analysis approach.Methods We conducted an inverse variance random effects meta-analysis of prospective studies with heel QUS measures at baseline and fracture outcomes in their follow-up. Relative risks (RR) per standard deviation (SD) of different QUS parameters (broadband ultrasound attenuation [BUA], speed of sound [SOS], stiffness index [SI], and quantitative ultrasound index [QUI]) for various fracture outcomes (hip, vertebral, any clinical, any osteoporotic and major osteoporotic fractures) were reported based on study questions.Results Twenty-one studies including 55,164 women and 13,742 men were included in the meta-analysis with a total follow-up of 279,124 person-years. All four QUS parameters were associated with risk of different fracture. For instance, RR of hip fracture for 1 SD decrease of BUA was 1.69 (95% CI 1.43-2.00), SOS was 1.96 (95% CI 1.64-2.34), SI was 2.26 (95%CI 1.71-2.99) and QUI was 1.99 (95% CI 1.49-2.67). There was marked heterogeneity among studies on hip and any clinical fractures but no evidence of publication bias amongst them. Validated devices from different manufacturers predicted fracture risks with similar performance (meta-regression p values > 0.05 for difference of devices). QUS measures predicted fracture with a similar performance in men and women. Meta-analysis of studies with QUS measures adjusted for hip BMD showed a significant and independent association with fracture risk (RR/SD for BUA = 1.34 [95%CI 1.22-1.49]).Conclusions This study confirms that heel QUS, using validated devices, predicts risk of different fracture outcomes in elderly men and women. Further research is needed for more widespread utilisation of the heel QUS in clinical settings across the world.

Trabecular Bone Score Helps Classifying Women At Riskof Fracture Prospectively In The Ofely Study

Objectives: Trabecular Bone Score (TBS, Med-Imaps, France) is an index of bone microarchitecture calculated from antero-posterior spine DXA scan and reported to be associated with fracture in prior case-control studies and in a large prospective study with the Prodigy DXA device. Our aim was to assess the ability of TBS to predict incident fracture and improve the classification of fracture prospectively in the OFELY study.Materials/Methods: TBS was assessed in 564 postmenopausal women (66±8 years old) from the OFELY cohort, who had a spine DXA scan (QDR 4500A, Hologic, USA) between year 2000 and 2001. During a mean follow up of 7.8±1.3 years, 94 women sustained a fragility fracture.Results: At the time of baseline DXA scan, women with incident fracture were significantly older (70±9 vs. 65± 8 years), had a lower spine BMD (T-score: −1.9±1.2 vs. −1.3±1.3, p<0.001) and spine TBS (−3.1%, p<0.001) than women without incident fracture. After adjustment for age, BMI and the presence of prevalent fracture, the magnitude of fracture prediction was similar for spine BMD (OR=1.42 [1.11;1.82] per SD decrease [95% CI]) and TBS (OR=1.34 [1.04;1.74]) but the combination of TBS and spine BMD did not improve fracture prediction. Spine BMD and TBS were both correlated with age (respectively r=−0.17 and −0.49, p<0.001) and correlated together with 39% of TBS explained by spine BMD (r=0.63, p<0.001). When using the WHO classification, 38% of the fractures occurred in osteoporotic (fracture rate=29%), 47% in osteopenic (fracture rate=16%) and 15% in women with T-score >−1 (fracture rate=9%). By classifying our population in tertiles of TBS, we found that 47% of the fractures occurred in the lowest tertile of TBS (fracture rate=23%) and 39% of the fracture that occurred in osteopenic women were in the lowest tertile of TBS.Conclusions: Spine BMD and TBS predicted fractures equally well. The addition of TBS to spine BMD added only limited information on fracture risk prediction in our cohort when considering the all range of BMD. Nevertheless combining the osteopenic T-score and the lowest TBS helped defining a subset of osteopenic women at higher risk of fracture.Disclosure of Interest: None declared.

Energy balance in elderly patients after surgery for a femoral neck fracture.

To study energy and protein balances in elderly patients after surgery, spontaneous energy and protein intake and resting energy expenditure (REE) were measured in 20 elderly female patients with a femoral neck fracture (mean age 81 +/- 4, SD, range 74-87 years; weight 53 +/- 8, range 42-68 kg) during a 5-6 day period following surgery. REE, measured over 20-40 min by indirect calorimetry using a ventilated canopy, averaged 0.98 +/- 0.15 kcal/min on day 3 and decreased to 0.93 +/- 0.15 kcal/min on day 8-9 postsurgery (p less than 0.02). REE was positively correlated with body weight (r = 0.69, p less than 0.005). Mean REE extrapolated to 24 hr (24-REE) was 1283 +/- 194 kcal/day. Mean daily food energy intake measured over the 5-day follow-up period was 1097 +/- 333 kcal/day and was positively correlated with 24-REE (r = 0.50, p less than 0.05). Daily energy balance was -235 +/- 351 kcal/day on day 3 (p less than 0.01 vs zero) and -13 +/- 392 kcal/day on day 8-9 postsurgery (NS vs zero) with a mean over the study period of -185 +/- 289 kcal/day (p less than 0.01 vs zero). When an extra 100 kcal/day was allowed for the energy cost of physical activity, mean daily energy balance over the 5-day study period was calculated to be -285 +/- 289 kcal/day (p less than 0.01 vs zero). Measurements of total 24-hr urinary nitrogen (N) excretion were obtained in a subgroup of 14 patients.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)