Essays in general equilibrium asset pricing

ABSTRACT : Research in empirical asset pricing has pointed out several anomalies both in the cross section and time series of asset prices, as well as in investors' portfolio choice. This dissertation aims to discover the forces driving some of these "puzzling" asset pricing dynamics and portfolio decisions observed in the financial market. Through the dissertation I construct and study dynamic general equilibrium models of heterogeneous investors in the presence of frictions and evaluate quantitatively their implications for financial-market asset prices and portfolio choice. I also explore the potential roots of puzzles in international finance. Chapter 1 shows that, by introducing jointly endogenous no-default type of borrowing constraints and heterogeneous beliefs in a dynamic general-equilibrium economy, many empirical features of stock return volatility can be reproduced. While most of the research on stock return volatility is empirical, this paper provides a theoretical framework that is able to reproduce simultaneously the cross section and time series stylized facts concerning stock returns and their volatility. In contrast to the existing theoretical literature related to stock return volatility, I don't impose persistence or regimes in any of the exogenous state variables or in preferences. Volatility clustering, asymmetry in the stock return-volatility relationship, and pricing of multi-factor volatility components in the cross section all arise endogenously as a consequence of the feedback between the binding of no-default constraints and heterogeneous beliefs. Chapters 2 and 3 explore the implications of differences of opinion across investors in different countries for international asset pricing anomalies. Chapter 2 demonstrates that several international finance "puzzles" can be reproduced by a single risk factor which captures heterogeneous beliefs across international investors. These puzzles include: (i) home equity preference; (ii) the dependence of firm returns on local and foreign factors; (iii) the co-movement of returns and international capital flows; and (iv) abnormal returns around foreign firm cross-listing events in the local market. These are reproduced in a setup with symmetric information and in a perfectly integrated world with multiple countries and independent processes producing the same good. Chapter 3 shows that by extending this framework to multiple goods and correlated production processes; the "forward premium puzzle" arises naturally as a compensation for the heterogeneous expectations about the depreciation of the exchange rate held by international investors. Chapters 2 and 3 propose differences of opinion across international investors as the potential resolution of several international finance `puzzles'. In a globalized world where both capital and information flow freely across countries, this explanation seems more appealing than existing asymmetric information or segmented markets theories aiming to explain international finance puzzles.

Evaluation of cumulative PCB exposure estimated by a job exposure matrix versus PCB serum concentrations.

Although polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) have been banned in many countries for more than three decades, exposures to PCBs continue to be of concern due to their long half-lives and carcinogenic effects. In National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health studies, we are using semiquantitative plant-specific job exposure matrices (JEMs) to estimate historical PCB exposures for workers (n = 24,865) exposed to PCBs from 1938 to 1978 at three capacitor manufacturing plants. A subcohort of these workers (n = 410) employed in two of these plants had serum PCB concentrations measured at up to four times between 1976 and 1989. Our objectives were to evaluate the strength of association between an individual worker's measured serum PCB levels and the same worker's cumulative exposure estimated through 1977 with the (1) JEM and (2) duration of employment, and to calculate the explained variance the JEM provides for serum PCB levels using (3) simple linear regression. Consistent strong and statistically significant associations were observed between the cumulative exposures estimated with the JEM and serum PCB concentrations for all years. The strength of association between duration of employment and serum PCBs was good for highly chlorinated (Aroclor 1254/HPCB) but not less chlorinated (Aroclor 1242/LPCB) PCBs. In the simple regression models, cumulative occupational exposure estimated using the JEMs explained 14-24% of the variance of the Aroclor 1242/LPCB and 22-39% for Aroclor 1254/HPCB serum concentrations. We regard the cumulative exposure estimated with the JEM as a better estimate of PCB body burdens than serum concentrations quantified as Aroclor 1242/LPCB and Aroclor 1254/HPCB.

Chondrodysplasia and Abnormal Joint Development Associated with Mutations in IMPAD1, Encoding the Golgi-Resident Nucleotide Phosphatase, gPAPP.

We used whole-exome sequencing to study three individuals with a distinct condition characterized by short stature, chondrodysplasia with brachydactyly, congenital joint dislocations, cleft palate, and facial dysmorphism. Affected individuals carried homozygous missense mutations in IMPAD1, the gene coding for gPAPP, a Golgi-resident nucleotide phosphatase that hydrolyzes phosphoadenosine phosphate (PAP), the byproduct of sulfotransferase reactions, to AMP. The mutations affected residues in or adjacent to the phosphatase active site and are predicted to impair enzyme activity. A fourth unrelated patient was subsequently found to be homozygous for a premature termination codon in IMPAD1. Impad1 inactivation in mice has previously been shown to produce chondrodysplasia with abnormal joint formation and impaired proteoglycan sulfation. The human chondrodysplasia associated with gPAPP deficiency joins a growing number of skeletoarticular conditions associated with defective synthesis of sulfated proteoglycans, highlighting the importance of proteoglycans in the development of skeletal elements and joints.

Abnormal sensitivity to negative feedback in late-life depression.

AIMS: The purpose of the present study was to probe sensitivity to potentially misleading negative feedback on cognitive tasks as a possible mechanism of cognitive impairment in elderly patients with mild depression. METHODS: A total of 22 mildly depressed elderly subjects were compared to 22 healthy controls, using a computerized Tower-of-London task. RESULTS: Failure and magnitude of failure were significantly worse after negative but not positive feedback. Depression predicted failure after negative feedback but not the magnitude of failure. Neither failure nor magnitude of failure increased as a consequence of repeated negative feedback. CONCLUSIONS: Altered sensitivity to negative feedback occurs in mild late-life unipolar depression and may represent a subtle context-specific phenomenon.

Frequency-dependent sexual selection with respect to offspring fitness returns is consistent with predictions from rock-paper-scissors dynamics in the European common lizard

Genetic polymorphism can be maintained over time by negative frequency-dependent (FD) selection induced by Rock-paper-scissors (RPS) social systems. RPS games produce cyclic dynamics, and have been suggested to exist in lizards, insects, isopods, plants, and bacteria. Sexual selection is predicted to accentuate the survival of the future progeny during negative FD survival selection. More specifically, females are predicted to select mates that produce progeny genotypes that exhibit highest survival during survival selection imposed by adult males. However, no empirical evidence demonstrates the existence of FD sexual selection with respect to fitness payoffs of genetic polymorphisms. Here we tested this prediction using the common lizard Zootoca vivipara, a species with three male color morphs (orange, white, yellow) that exhibit morph frequency cycles. In a first step we tested the congruence of the morph frequency change with the predicted change in three independent populations, differing in male color morph frequency and state of the FD morph cycle. Thereafter we ran standardized sexual selection assays in which we excluded alternative mechanisms that potentially induce negative FD selection, and we quantified inter-sexual behavior. The patterns of sexual selection and the observed behavior were in line with context-dependent female mate choice and male behavior played a minor role. Moreover, the strength of the sexual selection was within the magnitude of selection required to produce the observed 3-4-year and 6-8 year morph frequency cycles at low and high altitudes, respectively. In summary, the study provides the first experimental evidence that underpins the crucial assumption of the RPS games suggested to exist in lizards, insects, isopods, and plants; namely, that sexual selection produces negative-FD selection. This indicates that sexual selection, in our study exert by females, might be a crucial driver of the maintenance of genetic polymorphisms.

Early diabetes and abnormal postnatal pancreatic islet development in mice lacking Glut-2.

Glut-2 is a low-affinity transporter present in the plasma membrane of pancreatic beta-cells, hepatocytes and intestine and kidney absorptive epithelial cells of mice. In beta-cells, Glut-2 has been proposed to be active in the control of glucose-stimulated insulin secretion (GSIS; ref. 2), and its expression is strongly reduced in glucose-unresponsive islets from different animal models of diabetes. However, recent investigations have yielded conflicting data on the possible role of Glut-2 in GSIS. Whereas some reports have supported a specific role for Glut-2 (refs 5,6), others have suggested that GSIS could proceed normally even in the presence of low or almost undetectable levels of this transporter. Here we show that homozygous, but not heterozygous, mice deficient in Glut-2 are hyperglycaemic and relatively hypo-insulinaemic and have elevated plasma levels of glucagon, free fatty acids and beta-hydroxybutyrate. In vivo, their glucose tolerance is abnormal. In vitro, beta-cells display loss of control of insulin gene expression by glucose and impaired GSIS with a loss of first phase but preserved second phase of secretion, while the secretory response to non-glucidic nutrients or to D-glyceraldehyde is normal. This is accompanied by alterations in the postnatal development of pancreatic islets, evidenced by an inversion of the alpha- to beta-cell ratio. Glut-2 is thus required to maintain normal glucose homeostasis and normal function and development of the endocrine pancreas. Its absence leads to symptoms characteristic of non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus.

Isolation of genetic mutation leading to abnormal phenotype in human through ultra-high-throughput sequencing (UHTS)

The introduction of Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) facilitated the task of localizing DNA variation and identifying the genetic cause of yet unsolved Mendelian disorders. Using Whole Exome Capture method and NGS, we identified the causative genetic aberration responsible for a number of monogenic disorders previously undetermined. Due to the novelty of the NGS method we benchmarked different algorithms to assess their merits and defects. This allowed us to establish a pipeline that we successfully used to pinpoint genes responsible for a form of West's syndrome, a Complex Intellectual Disability syndrome associated with patellar dislocation and celiac disease, and correcting some erroneous molecular diagnosis of Alport's syndrome in a Saudi Arabian family.

Insulinoma associated with a case of multiple endocrine neoplasia type I: Functional somatostatin receptors and abnormal glucose-induced insulin secretion.

A sporadic case of multiple endocrine neoplasia type I with coexisting insulinoma and hyperparathyroidism was investigated in vivo and in vitro. The insulinoma was localized by somatostatin receptor scintigraphy and these receptors were functionally active. Octreotide administration decreased the basal insulin and glucagon secretion by 90 and 46%, respectively. Immunocytochemistry of the insulinoma tissue was positive for insulin, chromogranin A and neuropeptide Y. The insulinoma cells were also isolated and cultured in vitro. Incubation experiments revealed that a low glucose concentration (1 mmol/l) was sufficient to increase cytosolic free calcium and to produce a maximal glucose-induced insulin release. Northern blot analysis of RNA obtained from the tumor showed a high abundance of the low Km glucose transporter GLUT1 but no transcript for the high Km glucose transporter GLUT2. The abnormal distribution of glucose transporters probably relates to the abnormal glucose sensing of insulinoma cells, and explains their sustained insulin secretion at low glucose concentrations. Whether these abnormalities share a pathogenetic link with the presence of functionally active somatostatin receptors remains to be elucidated.

Symmetry-breaking in cumulative measures of shapes of polymer models.

Using numerical simulations we investigate shapes of random equilateral open and closed chains, one of the simplest models of freely fluctuating polymers in a solution. We are interested in the 3D density distribution of the modeled polymers where the polymers have been aligned with respect to their three principal axes of inertia. This type of approach was pioneered by Theodorou and Suter in 1985. While individual configurations of the modeled polymers are almost always nonsymmetric, the approach of Theodorou and Suter results in cumulative shapes that are highly symmetric. By taking advantage of asymmetries within the individual configurations, we modify the procedure of aligning independent configurations in a way that shows their asymmetry. This approach reveals, for example, that the 3D density distribution for linear polymers has a bean shape predicted theoretically by Kuhn. The symmetry-breaking approach reveals complementary information to the traditional, symmetrical, 3D density distributions originally introduced by Theodorou and Suter.