"Periodic crises": Clément Juglar between theories of crises and theories of business cycles

Business cycle theory is normally described as having evolved out of a previous tradition of writers focusing exclusively on crises. In this account, the turning point is seen as residing in Clément Juglar's contribution on commercial crises and their periodicity. It is well known that the champion of this view is Schumpeter, who propagated it on several occasions. The same author, however, pointed to a number of other writers who, before and at the same time as Juglar, stressed one or another of the aspects for which Juglar is credited primacy, including the recognition of periodicity and the identification of endogenous elements enabling the recognition of crises as a self-generating phenomenon. There is indeed a vast literature, both primary and secondary, relating to the debates on crises and fluctuations around the middle of the nineteenth century, from which it is apparent that Juglar's book Des Crises Commerciales et de leur Retour Périodique en France, en Angleterre et aux États-Unis (originally published in 1862 and very much revised and enlarged in 1889) did not come out of the blue but was one of the products of an intellectual climate inducing the thinking of crises not as unrelated events but as part of a more complex phenomenon consisting of recurring crises related to the development of the commercial world - an interpretation corroborated by the almost regular occurrence of crises at about 10-year intervals.

Paper money and national distress: William Huskisson and the early theories of credit, speculation and crises

This paper examines the explanation of commercial crises offered by William Huskisson in 1810 in the wake of the debate on the Bullion Report. Huskisson argued that the suspension of convertibility made it possible to extend issues of paper currency beyond its proper limits. Such an expansion, being in the interest of all parties concerned, would actually take place and stimulate excessive speculations, which would eventually prove unsustainable and bring generalized ruin and distress. Although some elements of this explanations were not new (having been anticipated by writers sucha as James Currie in 1793, William Roscoe in 1793, William Anderson in 1797 and an anonymous in 1796), Huskisson's explanation is more systematic and better organized, and his emphasis on the endogenous character of the crisis and on the instability of the dynamics of trade and credit makes it an interesting foreshadower of the theories of crises that were advanced half a century later.

Crises as a disease of the body politick: a metaphor in the history of nineteenth century economics

This paper examines the use of the medical metaphor in the early theories of crises. It first considers the borrowing of medical terminology and generic references to disease which, notwithstanding their relatively trivial character, illustrate how crises were originally conceived as disturbances (often of a political nature) to a naturally healthy system. Then it shows how a more specific metaphor, the fever of speculation, shifted the emphasis by treating prosperity as the diseased phase, to which crises are a remedy. The metaphor of the epidemic spreading of the disease introduced the theme of the cumulative character of both upswing and downswing, while the similitude with intermittent fevers accounted for the recurring nature of crises. Finally, the paper examines how the medical reflections on the causality of diseases contributed to the epistemology of crises theory, and reflects on the metaphisical shift accompanying the transition from the theories of crises to the theories of cycles.

The periodicity of crises: a survey of the literature

This paper examines the literature on the periodical recurrence of economic crises up to the 1840s, illustrating how the awareness of this phenomenon was far more widespread than the few existing histories of business cycle theories indicate, and also that early writers were more interested in emphasizing the intermittent return of crises rather than their precise timing

Allergo-immunologie. 1. Nouveautés dans le traitement des crises aiguës d'angioedème héréditaire [Allergy-immunology. New therapies for acute attacks in hereditary angioedema].

Hereditary angioedema is a disease which develops as a result of a deficiency or dysfonction of C1-inhibitor, a key regulator of the complement, coagulation and contact cascades, resulting among others in excessive release of bradykinin. This disease mortality rate is high in absence of immediate and effective treatment, in particular in presence of acute attacks of the upper respiratory tract (laryngeal edema). Until now only administration of a purified C1-inhibitor extract was effective against these symptoms. This paper aims to synthesise essentials knowledge concerning news drugs, in particular icatibant, a selective bradykinin B2- receptor antagonist whose use should be widened to the treatment of angioedema with ACE-inhibitors intolerance.

Managing the crises : How do Swiss municipalities react to the crisis and what explains the differences ?

Swiss municipalities are to an import ant extent responsible for their own resources. Since these resources primarily depend on income and property tax from individuals and enterprises, their budgets are likely to be directly affected by the actual crisis of the financial sector and the economy. This paper investigates how the municipalities perceive this threat and how they reacted to it or plan to do so. In a nationwide survey conducted at the end of 2009 in all 2596 Swiss municipalities, we asked the local secretaries which measures they launch in order to cope with expected losses in tax income and a possible increase of welfare spending. Do the municipalities rather rely on Keynesian measures increasing public spending and accepting greater deficits, or do they try to avoid further deficits by austerity measures and a withdrawal of planned investments? The paper shows that only a few municipalities - mainly the bigger ones - expect to be strongly hit by the crisis. Their reactions, however, do not reveal the clear patterns theory lets to expect. Preferences for austerity measures and deficit spending become visible but many municipalities take measures from both theories. The strongest explaining factor whether municipalities react is the affectedness by the crisis followed by the fact that the municipality belongs to the French speaking part of the country. Size also has an effect whereas the strength of the Social Democrats is negligible. More difficult is it, to explain what kind of measures municipalities are likely to take.

Krisen - Ursachen, Deutungen und Folgen / Crises - Causes, interprétations et conséquences

L'effondrement inattendu de l'économie mondiale en 2009 a suscité un intérêt nouveau pour l'étude historique des crises. Dans ce contexte incertain, l'étude du passé a regagné en attractivité. L'ouvrage fait certaines propositions théoriques et offre une vision d'ensemble des différents types de crises du Haut Moyen-Age jusqu'à nos jours. La principale conclusion qui ressort de ces contributions est qu'il n'y a pas de réponse objective à une situation de crise. Les interprétations et les attentes ne sont certes pas complètement aléatoires, dans la mesure où elles s'inspirent des expériences du passé. Elles sont cependant soumises à de fortes variations, car les périodes de forte incertitude engendrent certains doutes vis-à-vis des enseignements du passé. Dans cette perspective, les auteurs.es parviennent, à partir de leurs études de cas historiques, à stimuler la réflexion sur la crise actuelle.