229 resultados para Continuous Utility Functions

em Université de Lausanne, Switzerland


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Préface My thesis consists of three essays where I consider equilibrium asset prices and investment strategies when the market is likely to experience crashes and possibly sharp windfalls. Although each part is written as an independent and self contained article, the papers share a common behavioral approach in representing investors preferences regarding to extremal returns. Investors utility is defined over their relative performance rather than over their final wealth position, a method first proposed by Markowitz (1952b) and by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), that I extend to incorporate preferences over extremal outcomes. With the failure of the traditional expected utility models in reproducing the observed stylized features of financial markets, the Prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979) offered the first significant alternative to the expected utility paradigm by considering that people focus on gains and losses rather than on final positions. Under this setting, Barberis, Huang, and Santos (2000) and McQueen and Vorkink (2004) were able to build a representative agent optimization model which solution reproduced some of the observed risk premium and excess volatility. The research in behavioral finance is relatively new and its potential still to explore. The three essays composing my thesis propose to use and extend this setting to study investors behavior and investment strategies in a market where crashes and sharp windfalls are likely to occur. In the first paper, the preferences of a representative agent, relative to time varying positive and negative extremal thresholds are modelled and estimated. A new utility function that conciliates between expected utility maximization and tail-related performance measures is proposed. The model estimation shows that the representative agent preferences reveals a significant level of crash aversion and lottery-pursuit. Assuming a single risky asset economy the proposed specification is able to reproduce some of the distributional features exhibited by financial return series. The second part proposes and illustrates a preference-based asset allocation model taking into account investors crash aversion. Using the skewed t distribution, optimal allocations are characterized as a resulting tradeoff between the distribution four moments. The specification highlights the preference for odd moments and the aversion for even moments. Qualitatively, optimal portfolios are analyzed in terms of firm characteristics and in a setting that reflects real-time asset allocation, a systematic over-performance is obtained compared to the aggregate stock market. Finally, in my third article, dynamic option-based investment strategies are derived and illustrated for investors presenting downside loss aversion. The problem is solved in closed form when the stock market exhibits stochastic volatility and jumps. The specification of downside loss averse utility functions allows corresponding terminal wealth profiles to be expressed as options on the stochastic discount factor contingent on the loss aversion level. Therefore dynamic strategies reduce to the replicating portfolio using exchange traded and well selected options, and the risky stock.

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PURPOSE: To present the long-term follow-up of 10 adolescents and young adults with documented cognitive and behavioral regression as children due to nonlesional focal, mainly frontal, epilepsy with continuous spike-waves during slow wave sleep (CSWS). METHODS: Past medical and electroencephalography (EEG) data were reviewed and neuropsychological tests exploring main cognitive functions were administered. KEY FINDINGS: After a mean duration of follow-up of 15.6 years (range, 8-23 years), none of the 10 patients had recovered fully, but four regained borderline to normal intelligence and were almost independent. Patients with prolonged global intellectual regression had the worst outcome, whereas those with more specific and short-lived deficits recovered best. The marked behavioral disorders resolved in all but one patient. Executive functions were neither severely nor homogenously affected. Three patients with a frontal syndrome during the active phase (AP) disclosed only mild residual executive and social cognition deficits. The main cognitive gains occurred shortly after the AP, but qualitative improvements continued to occur. Long-term outcome correlated best with duration of CSWS. SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings emphasize that cognitive recovery after cessation of CSWS depends on the severity and duration of the initial regression. None of our patients had major executive and social cognition deficits with preserved intelligence, as reported in adults with early destructive lesions of the frontal lobes. Early recognition of epilepsy with CSWS and rapid introduction of effective therapy are crucial for a best possible outcome.

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Summary Forests are key ecosystems of the earth and associated with a large range of functions. Many of these functions are beneficial to humans and are referred to as ecosystem services. Sustainable development requires that all relevant ecosystem services are quantified, managed and monitored equally. Natural resource management therefore targets the services associated with ecosystems. The main hypothesis of this thesis is that the spatial and temporal domains of relevant services do not correspond to a discrete forest ecosystem. As a consequence, the services are not quantified, managed and monitored in an equal and sustainable manner. The thesis aims were therefore to test this hypothesis, establish an improved conceptual approach and provide spatial applications for the relevant land cover and structure variables. The study was carried out in western Switzerland and based primarily on data from a countrywide landscape inventory. This inventory is part of the third Swiss national forest inventory and assesses continuous landscape variables based on a regular sampling of true colour aerial imagery. In addition, land cover variables were derived from Landsat 5 TM passive sensor data and land structure variables from active sensor data from a small footprint laserscanning system. The results confirmed the main hypothesis, as relevant services did not scale well with the forest ecosystem. Instead, a new conceptual approach for sustainable management of natural resources was described. This concept quantifies the services as a continuous function of the landscape, rather than a discrete function of the forest ecosystem. The explanatory landscape variables are therefore called continuous fields and the forest becomes a dependent and function-driven management unit. Continuous field mapping methods were established for land cover and structure variables. In conclusion, the discrete forest ecosystem is an adequate planning and management unit. However, monitoring the state of and trends in sustainability of services requires them to be quantified as a continuous function of the landscape. Sustainable natural resource management iteratively combines the ecosystem and gradient approaches. Résumé Les forêts sont des écosystèmes-clés de la terre et on leur attribue un grand nombre de fonctions. Beaucoup de ces fonctions sont bénéfiques pour l'homme et sont nommées services écosystémiques. Le développement durable exige que ces services écosystémiques soient tous quantifiés, gérés et surveillés de façon égale. La gestion des ressources naturelles a donc pour cible les services attribués aux écosystèmes. L'hypothèse principale de cette thèse est que les domaines spatiaux et temporels des services attribués à la forêt ne correspondent pas à un écosystème discret. Par conséquent, les services ne sont pas quantifiés, aménagés et surveillés d'une manière équivalente et durable. Les buts de la thèse étaient de tester cette hypothèse, d'établir une nouvelle approche conceptuelle de la gestion des ressources naturelles et de préparer des applications spatiales pour les variables paysagères et structurelles appropriées. L'étude a été menée en Suisse occidentale principalement sur la base d'un inventaire de paysage à l'échelon national. Cet inventaire fait partie du troisième inventaire forestier national suisse et mesure de façon continue des variables paysagères sur la base d'un échantillonnage régulier sur des photos aériennes couleur. En outre, des variables de couverture ? terrestre ont été dérivées des données d'un senseur passif Landsat 5 TM, ainsi que des variables structurelles, dérivées du laserscanning, un senseur actif. Les résultats confirment l'hypothèse principale, car l'échelle des services ne correspond pas à celle de l'écosystème forestier. Au lieu de cela, une nouvelle approche a été élaborée pour la gestion durable des ressources naturelles. Ce concept représente les services comme une fonction continue du paysage, plutôt qu'une fonction discrète de l'écosystème forestier. En conséquence, les variables explicatives de paysage sont dénommées continuous fields et la forêt devient une entité dépendante, définie par la fonction principale du paysage. Des méthodes correspondantes pour la couverture terrestre et la structure ont été élaborées. En conclusion, l'écosystème forestier discret est une unité adéquate pour la planification et la gestion. En revanche, la surveillance de la durabilité de l'état et de son évolution exige que les services soient quantifiés comme fonction continue du paysage. La gestion durable des ressources naturelles joint donc l'approche écosystémique avec celle du gradient de manière itérative.

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Extracellular calcium participates in several key physiological functions, such as control of blood coagulation, bone calcification or muscle contraction. Calcium homeostasis in humans is regulated in part by genetic factors, as illustrated by rare monogenic diseases characterized by hypo or hypercalcaemia. Both serum calcium and urinary calcium excretion are heritable continuous traits in humans. Serum calcium levels are tightly regulated by two main hormonal systems, i.e. parathyroid hormone and vitamin D, which are themselves also influenced by genetic factors. Recent technological advances in molecular biology allow for the screening of the human genome at an unprecedented level of detail and using hypothesis-free approaches, such as genome-wide association studies (GWAS). GWAS identified novel loci for calcium-related phenotypes (i.e. serum calcium and 25-OH vitamin D) that shed new light on the biology of calcium in humans. The substantial overlap (i.e. CYP24A1, CASR, GATA3; CYP2R1) between genes involved in rare monogenic diseases and genes located within loci identified in GWAS suggests a genetic and phenotypic continuum between monogenic diseases of calcium homeostasis and slight disturbances of calcium homeostasis in the general population. Future studies using whole-exome and whole-genome sequencing will further advance our understanding of the genetic architecture of calcium homeostasis in humans. These findings will likely provide new insight into the complex mechanisms involved in calcium homeostasis and hopefully lead to novel preventive and therapeutic approaches. Keyword: calcium, monogenic, genome-wide association studies, genetics.

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The mucosal epithelia of the digestive tract acts as a selective barrier, permeable to ions, small molecules and macromolecules. These epithelial cells aid the digestion of food and absorption of nutrients. They contribute to the protection against pathogens and undergo continuous cell renewal which facilitates the elimination of damaged cells. Both innate and adaptive defence mechanisms protect the gastrointestinal-mucosal surfaces against pathogens. Interaction of microorganisms with epithelial cells triggers a host response by activating specific transcription factors which control the expression of chemokines and cytokines. This host response is characterized by the recruitment of macrophages and neutrophils at the site of infection. Disruption of epithelial signalling pathways that recruit migratory immune cells results in a chronic inflammatory response. The adaptive defence mechanism relies on the collaboration of epithelial cells (resident sampling system) with antigen-presenting and lymphoid cells (migratory sampling system); in order to obtain samples of foreign antigen, these samples must be transported across the barriers without affecting the integrity of the barrier. These sampling systems are regulated by both environmental and host factors. Fates of the antigen may differ depending on the way in which they cross the epithelial barrier, i.e. via interaction with motile dendritic cells or epithelial M cells in the follicle-associated epithelium.

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AIM: In type 1 diabetic patients (T1DM), nocturnal hypoglycaemias (NH) are a serious complication of T1DM treatment; self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) is recommended to detect them. However, the majority of NH remains undetected on an occasional SMBG done during the night. An alternative strategy is the Continuous glucose monitoring (CGMS), which retrospectively shows the glycaemic profile. The aims of this retrospective study were to evaluate the true incidence of NH in T1DM, the best SMBG time to predict NH, the relationship between morning hyperglycaemia and NH (Somogyi phenomenon) and the utility of CGMS to reduce NH. METHODS: Eighty-eight T1DM who underwent a CGMS exam were included. Indications for CGMS evaluation, hypoglycaemias and correlation with morning hyperglycaemias were recorded. The efficiency of CGMS to reduce the suspected NH was evaluated after 6-9 months. RESULTS: The prevalence of NH was 67% (32% of them unsuspected). A measured hypoglycaemia at bedtime (22-24 h) had a sensitivity of 37% to detect NH (OR=2.37, P=0.001), while a single measure < or =4 mmol/l at 3-hour had a sensitivity of 43% (OR=4.60, P<0.001). NH were not associated with morning hyperglycaemias but with morning hypoglycaemias (OR=3.95, P<0.001). After 6-9 months, suspicions of NH decreased from 60 to 14% (P<0.001). CONCLUSION: NH were highly prevalent and often undetected. SMBG at bedtime, which detected hypoglycaemia had sensitivity almost equal to that of 3-hour and should be preferred because it is easier to perform. Somogyi phenomenon was not observed. CGMS is useful to reduce the risk of NH in 75% of patients.

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Among numerous magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) techniques, perfusion MRI provides insight into the passage of blood through the brain's vascular network non-invasively. Studying disease models and transgenic mice would intrinsically help understanding the underlying brain functions, cerebrovascular disease and brain disorders. This study evaluates the feasibility of performing continuous arterial spin labeling (CASL) on all cranial arteries for mapping murine cerebral blood flow at 9.4 T. We showed that with an active-detuned two-coil system, a labeling efficiency of 0.82 ± 0.03 was achieved with minimal magnetization transfer residuals in brain. The resulting cerebral blood flow of healthy mouse was 99 ± 26 mL/100g/min, in excellent agreement with other techniques. In conclusion, high magnetic fields deliver high sensitivity and allowing not only CASL but also other MR techniques, i.e. (1)H MRS and diffusion MRI etc, in studying murine brains.

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Preface The starting point for this work and eventually the subject of the whole thesis was the question: how to estimate parameters of the affine stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models. These models are very important for contingent claim pricing. Their major advantage, availability T of analytical solutions for characteristic functions, made them the models of choice for many theoretical constructions and practical applications. At the same time, estimation of parameters of stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models is not a straightforward task. The problem is coming from the variance process, which is non-observable. There are several estimation methodologies that deal with estimation problems of latent variables. One appeared to be particularly interesting. It proposes the estimator that in contrast to the other methods requires neither discretization nor simulation of the process: the Continuous Empirical Characteristic function estimator (EGF) based on the unconditional characteristic function. However, the procedure was derived only for the stochastic volatility models without jumps. Thus, it has become the subject of my research. This thesis consists of three parts. Each one is written as independent and self contained article. At the same time, questions that are answered by the second and third parts of this Work arise naturally from the issues investigated and results obtained in the first one. The first chapter is the theoretical foundation of the thesis. It proposes an estimation procedure for the stochastic volatility models with jumps both in the asset price and variance processes. The estimation procedure is based on the joint unconditional characteristic function for the stochastic process. The major analytical result of this part as well as of the whole thesis is the closed form expression for the joint unconditional characteristic function for the stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models. The empirical part of the chapter suggests that besides a stochastic volatility, jumps both in the mean and the volatility equation are relevant for modelling returns of the S&P500 index, which has been chosen as a general representative of the stock asset class. Hence, the next question is: what jump process to use to model returns of the S&P500. The decision about the jump process in the framework of the affine jump- diffusion models boils down to defining the intensity of the compound Poisson process, a constant or some function of state variables, and to choosing the distribution of the jump size. While the jump in the variance process is usually assumed to be exponential, there are at least three distributions of the jump size which are currently used for the asset log-prices: normal, exponential and double exponential. The second part of this thesis shows that normal jumps in the asset log-returns should be used if we are to model S&P500 index by a stochastic volatility jump-diffusion model. This is a surprising result. Exponential distribution has fatter tails and for this reason either exponential or double exponential jump size was expected to provide the best it of the stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models to the data. The idea of testing the efficiency of the Continuous ECF estimator on the simulated data has already appeared when the first estimation results of the first chapter were obtained. In the absence of a benchmark or any ground for comparison it is unreasonable to be sure that our parameter estimates and the true parameters of the models coincide. The conclusion of the second chapter provides one more reason to do that kind of test. Thus, the third part of this thesis concentrates on the estimation of parameters of stochastic volatility jump- diffusion models on the basis of the asset price time-series simulated from various "true" parameter sets. The goal is to show that the Continuous ECF estimator based on the joint unconditional characteristic function is capable of finding the true parameters. And, the third chapter proves that our estimator indeed has the ability to do so. Once it is clear that the Continuous ECF estimator based on the unconditional characteristic function is working, the next question does not wait to appear. The question is whether the computation effort can be reduced without affecting the efficiency of the estimator, or whether the efficiency of the estimator can be improved without dramatically increasing the computational burden. The efficiency of the Continuous ECF estimator depends on the number of dimensions of the joint unconditional characteristic function which is used for its construction. Theoretically, the more dimensions there are, the more efficient is the estimation procedure. In practice, however, this relationship is not so straightforward due to the increasing computational difficulties. The second chapter, for example, in addition to the choice of the jump process, discusses the possibility of using the marginal, i.e. one-dimensional, unconditional characteristic function in the estimation instead of the joint, bi-dimensional, unconditional characteristic function. As result, the preference for one or the other depends on the model to be estimated. Thus, the computational effort can be reduced in some cases without affecting the efficiency of the estimator. The improvement of the estimator s efficiency by increasing its dimensionality faces more difficulties. The third chapter of this thesis, in addition to what was discussed above, compares the performance of the estimators with bi- and three-dimensional unconditional characteristic functions on the simulated data. It shows that the theoretical efficiency of the Continuous ECF estimator based on the three-dimensional unconditional characteristic function is not attainable in practice, at least for the moment, due to the limitations on the computer power and optimization toolboxes available to the general public. Thus, the Continuous ECF estimator based on the joint, bi-dimensional, unconditional characteristic function has all the reasons to exist and to be used for the estimation of parameters of the stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models.

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Rapport de synthèse : Hypoglycémies nocturnes chez les patients diabétiques de type 1 : que pouvons-nous apprendre de la mesure de la glycémie en continu ? But : les hypoglycémies nocturnes sont une complication majeure du traitement des patients diabétiques de type 1; des autocontrôles de la glycémie capillaire sont donc recommandés pour les détecter. Cependant, la majorité des hypoglycémies nocturnes ne sont pas décelées par un autocontrôle glycémique durant la nuit. La mesure de la glycémie en continu (CGMS) est une alternative intéressante. Les buts de cette étude rétrospective étaient d'évaluer la véritable incidence des hypoglycémies nocturnes chez des patients diabétiques de type 1, la meilleure période pour effectuer un autocontrôle permettant de prédire une hypoglycémie nocturne, la relation entre les hyperglycémies matinales et les hypoglycémies nocturnes (phénomène de Somogyi) ainsi que l'utilité du CGMS pour réduire les hypoglycémies nocturnes. Méthode : quatre-vingt-huit patients diabétiques de type 1 qui avaient bénéficié d'un CGMS ont été inclus. Les indications au CGMS, les hypoglycémies nocturnes et diurnes ainsi que la corrélation entre les hypoglycémies nocturnes et les hyperglycémies matinales durant le CGMS ont été enregistrées. L'efficacité du CGMS pour réduire les hypoglycémies nocturnes a été évaluée six à neuf mois après. Résultats : la prévalence des hypoglycémies nocturnes était de 67% (32% non suspectées). La sensibilité d'une hypoglycémie à prédire une hypoglycémie nocturne était de 37% (OR = 2,37, P = 0,001) lorsqu'elle survient au coucher (22-24 h) et de 43% lorsqu'elle survient à 3 h (OR = 4,60, P < 0,001). Les hypoglycémies nocturnes n'étaient pas associées à des hyperglycémies matinales, mais à des hypoglycémies matinales (OR = 3.95, P < 0.001). Six à neuf mois après le CGMS, les suspicions cliniques d'hypoglycémies nocturnes ont diminué de 60% à 14% (P < 0.001). Abstract : Aim. - In type 1 diabetic patients (TIDM), nocturnal hypoglycaemias (Nlï) are a serious complication of T1DM treatment; self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) is recommended to detect them. However, the majority of NH remains undetected on an occasional SMBG done during the night. An alternative strategy is the Continuous glucose monitoring (CGMS), which retrospectively shows the glycaemic profile. The aims of this retrospective study were to evaluate the true incidence of NH in TiDM, the bèst SMBG time to predict NH, the relationship between morning hyperglycaemia and N$ (Somogyi phenomenon) and the utility of CGMS to reduce NH. Methods. -Eighty-eight T1DM who underwent a CGMS exam were included. Indications for CGMS evaluarion, hypoglycaemias and correlation with morning hyperglycaemias were recorded. The efficiency of CGMS to reduce the suspected NH was evaluated after 6-9 months. Results. -The prevalence of NH was 67% (32% of them unsuspected). A measured hypoglycaemia at bedtime (22-24 h) had a sensitivity of 37% to detect NH (OR = 2.37, P = 0.001), while a single measure <_ 4 mmol/l at 3-hour had a sensitivity of 43% (OR = 4.60, P < 0.001). NH were not associated with morning hyperglycaemias but with morning hypoglycaemias (OR = 3.95, P < 0.001). After 6-9 months, suspicions of NH decreased from 60 to 14% (P < 0.001). Conclusion. - NH were highly prevalent and often undetected. SMBG at bedtime, which detected hypoglycaemia had sensitivity almost equal to that of 3-hour and should be preferred because it is easier to perform. Somogyi phenomenon was not observed. CGMS is useful to reduce the risk of NH in 75% of patients.

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A 67-year-old woman was referred for staging of a mucosa-associated lymphoid tumor lymphoma involving the left conjunctiva. CT scan had shown paravertebral and pelvic masses, and a breast nodule. FDG PET/CT demonstrated moderately increased uptake in the left ocular conjunctiva and confirmed the paravertebral and pelvic masses and the breast nodule. Moreover, abnormal FDG uptake was shown in 2 breast nodules, the flank, the gluteus maximus, and the gastric cardia. The patient received 6 cycles of rituximab-bendamustine chemotherapy with a complete clinical and metabolic response at the 6-month follow-up PET/CT and remained relapse-free without visual acuity problem after a 36-month follow-up.

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In rats, neonatal treatment with monosodium L-glutamate (MSG) induces several metabolic and neuroendocrine abnormalities, which result in hyperadiposity. No data exist, however, regarding neuroendocrine, immune and metabolic responses to acute endotoxemia in the MSG-damaged rat. We studied the consequences of MSG treatment during the acute phase response of inflammatory stress. Neonatal male rats were treated with MSG or vehicle (controls, CTR) and studied at age 90 days. Pituitary, adrenal, adipo-insular axis, immune, metabolic and gonadal functions were explored before and up to 5 h after single sub-lethal i.p. injection of bacterial lipopolysaccharide (LPS; 150 microg/kg). Our results showed that, during the acute phase response of inflammatory stress in MSG rats: (1) the corticotrope-adrenal, leptin, insulin and triglyceride responses were higher than in CTR rats, (2) pro-inflammatory (TNFalpha) cytokine response was impaired and anti-inflammatory (IL-10) cytokine response was normal, and (3) changes in peripheral estradiol and testosterone levels after LPS varied as in CTR rats. These data indicate that metabolic and neroendocrine-immune functions are altered in MSG-damaged rats. Our study also suggests that the enhanced corticotrope-corticoadrenal activity in MSG animals could be responsible, at least in part, for the immune and metabolic derangements characterizing hypothalamic obesity.

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The majority of diseases in the retina are caused by genetic mutations affecting the development and function of photoreceptor cells. The transcriptional networks directing these processes are regulated by genes such as nuclear hormone receptors. The nuclear hormone receptor gene Rev-erb alpha/Nr1d1 has been widely studied for its role in the circadian cycle and cell metabolism, however its role in the retina is unknown. In order to understand the role of Rev-erb alpha/Nr1d1 in the retina, we evaluated the effects of loss of Nr1d1 to the developing retina and its co-regulation with the photoreceptor-specific nuclear receptor gene Nr2e3 in the developing and mature retina. Knock-down of Nr1d1 expression in the developing retina results in pan-retinal spotting and reduced retinal function by electroretinogram. Our studies show that NR1D1 protein is co-expressed with NR2E3 in the outer neuroblastic layer of the developing mouse retina. In the adult retina, NR1D1 is expressed in the ganglion cell layer and is co-expressed with NR2E3 in the outer nuclear layer, within rods and cones. Several genes co-targeted by NR2E3 and NR1D1 were identified that include: Nr2c1, Recoverin, Rgr, Rarres2, Pde8a, and Nupr1. We examined the cyclic expression of Nr1d1 and Nr2e3 over a twenty-four hour period and observed that both nuclear receptors cycle in a similar manner. Taken together, these studies reveal a novel role for Nr1d1, in conjunction with its cofactor Nr2e3, in regulating transcriptional networks critical for photoreceptor development and function.

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Cerebral microangiopathy (CMA) has been associated with executive dysfunction and fronto-parietal neural network disruption. Advances in magnetic resonance imaging allow more detailed analyses of gray (e.g., voxel-based morphometry-VBM) and white matter (e.g., diffusion tensor imaging-DTI) than traditional visual rating scales. The current study investigated patients with early CMA and healthy control subjects with all three approaches. Neuropsychological assessment focused on executive functions, the cognitive domain most discussed in CMA. The DTI and age-related white matter changes rating scales revealed convergent results showing widespread white matter changes in early CMA. Correlations were found in frontal and parietal areas exclusively with speeded, but not with speed-corrected executive measures. The VBM analyses showed reduced gray matter in frontal areas. All three approaches confirmed the hypothesized fronto-parietal network disruption in early CMA. Innovative methods (DTI) converged with results from conventional methods (visual rating) while allowing greater spatial and tissue accuracy. They are thus valid additions to the analysis of neural correlates of cognitive dysfunction. We found a clear distinction between speeded and nonspeeded executive measures in relationship to imaging parameters. Cognitive slowing is related to disease severity in early CMA and therefore important for early diagnostics.