Spatial modelling of biodiversity at the community level

1. Statistical modelling is often used to relate sparse biological survey data to remotely derived environmental predictors, thereby providing a basis for predictively mapping biodiversity across an entire region of interest. The most popular strategy for such modelling has been to model distributions of individual species one at a time. Spatial modelling of biodiversity at the community level may, however, confer significant benefits for applications involving very large numbers of species, particularly if many of these species are recorded infrequently. 2. Community-level modelling combines data from multiple species and produces information on spatial pattern in the distribution of biodiversity at a collective community level instead of, or in addition to, the level of individual species. Spatial outputs from community-level modelling include predictive mapping of community types (groups of locations with similar species composition), species groups (groups of species with similar distributions), axes or gradients of compositional variation, levels of compositional dissimilarity between pairs of locations, and various macro-ecological properties (e.g. species richness). 3. Three broad modelling strategies can be used to generate these outputs: (i) 'assemble first, predict later', in which biological survey data are first classified, ordinated or aggregated to produce community-level entities or attributes that are then modelled in relation to environmental predictors; (ii) 'predict first, assemble later', in which individual species are modelled one at a time as a function of environmental variables, to produce a stack of species distribution maps that is then subjected to classification, ordination or aggregation; and (iii) 'assemble and predict together', in which all species are modelled simultaneously, within a single integrated modelling process. These strategies each have particular strengths and weaknesses, depending on the intended purpose of modelling and the type, quality and quantity of data involved. 4. Synthesis and applications. The potential benefits of modelling large multispecies data sets using community-level, as opposed to species-level, approaches include faster processing, increased power to detect shared patterns of environmental response across rarely recorded species, and enhanced capacity to synthesize complex data into a form more readily interpretable by scientists and decision-makers. Community-level modelling therefore deserves to be considered more often, and more widely, as a potential alternative or supplement to modelling individual species.

Swallowing difficulties with oral drugs among polypharmacy patients attending community pharmacies.

Background Swallowing difficulties are common and can affect patients' ability to take solid oral dosage forms, thus compromising medication adherence. Strategies developed by patients to overcome such difficulties while taking medicines have seldom been described. Objective To determine prevalence and characteristics of swallowing difficulties among primary care patients attending their community pharmacies; to explore strategies developed by patients to overcome their difficulties, and health professionals' awareness of these problems. Setting Prospective study with a semi-structured questionnaire in random community pharmacies located in two Swiss regions. Method In each pharmacy, an interviewer asked 16 questions to each consecutive patient (18 years and older) with a prescription for at least 3 different solid oral forms. Main outcome measure Quantification of number of patients with swallowing difficulties and detailed description of difficulties. Results Among 122 pharmacies, 59 (48 %) accepted to join the study and 410 patients were enrolled. Thirty-seven patients (9.0 %) reported ongoing swallowing difficulties, while 55 patients (13.4 %) reported past difficulties. For the majority of patients, difficulties occurred at each single dose (83.7 %), with a single medication (59.8 %) and lasted for less than 12 months (53.8 %). Number of tablets was not the main trigger. Swallowing difficulties impaired extremely daily life in 12 % of the patients. Intentional non adherence (23 % of patients) and altering the oral dose formulation were the most common and potentially harmful strategies used by patients to overcome their swallowing difficulties. According to the patients, pharmacists and physicians rarely inquired about their swallowing difficulties. Conclusion We report a fairly high prevalence of swallowing difficulties in polypharmacy patients attending their community pharmacies. Pharmacists have to interview patients on their swallowing difficulties in a more systematic way, support patients in finding solutions and refer them to their physician if necessary to ensure continuity in care.

Community introduction of practice parameters for autistic spectrum disorders: Advancing early recognition.

OBJECTIVES: Within a strong interdisciplinary framework, improvement in the quality of care for children with autistic spectrum disorders through a 2 year implementation program of Practice Parameters, aimed principally at improving early detection and intervention. METHOD: We developed Practice Parameters (PPs) for Pervasive Developmental Disorders and circulated the PPs to all child and adolescent psychiatrists practicing in the region. RESULTS: PP development and parallel information strategies resulted in a significant decrease of 1.5 years in the mean-age-at-diagnosis. However, further analysis indicated that improvement was only transient. CONCLUSION: Despite the encouraging improvement in mean-age-at-diagnosis 2 years after PP implementation, other indicators showed a failure to maintain the improvements. A systematic screening program would be the most reliable method to reinforce the PPs.

Strategies for the development of tdm for targeted anticancer agents

Most of the novel targeted anticancer agents share classical characteristics that define drugs as candidates for blood concentration monitoring: long-term therapy; high interindividual but restricted intraindividual variability; significant drug-drug and drug- food interactions; correlations between concentration and efficacy/ toxicity with rather narrow therapeutic index; reversibility of effects; and absence of early markers of response. Surprisingly though, therapeutic concentration monitoring has received little attention for these drugs despite reiterated suggestions from clinical pharmacologists. Several issues explain the lack of clinical research and development in this field: global tradition of empiricism regarding treatment monitoring, lack of formal conceptual framework, ethical difficulties in the elaboration of controlled clinical trials, disregard from both drug manufacturers and public funders, limited encouragement from regulatory authorities, and practical hurdles making dosage adjustment based on concentration monitoring a difficult task for prescribers. However, new technologies are soon to help us overcome these obstacles, with the advent of miniaturized measurement devices able to quantify circulating drug concentrations at the point-of-care, to evaluate their plausibility given actual dosage and sampling time, to determine their appropriateness with reference to therapeutic targets, and to advise on suitable dosage adjustment. Such evolutions could bring conceptual changes into the clinical development of drugs such as anticancer agents, while increasing the therapeutic impact of population PK-PD studies and systematic reviews. Research efforts in that direction from the clinical pharmacology community will be essential for patients to receive the greatest benefits and the least harm from new anticancer treatments. The example of imatinib, the first commercialized tyrosine kinase inhibitor, will be outlined to illustrate a potential research agenda for the rational development of therapeutic concentration monitoring.

Community Policing in Switzerland's Major Urban Areas: An Observational Study of the Implementation and Impact Using Geospatial Data Mining

La présente étude est à la fois une évaluation du processus de la mise en oeuvre et des impacts de la police de proximité dans les cinq plus grandes zones urbaines de Suisse - Bâle, Berne, Genève, Lausanne et Zurich. La police de proximité (community policing) est à la fois une philosophie et une stratégie organisationnelle qui favorise un partenariat renouvelé entre la police et les communautés locales dans le but de résoudre les problèmes relatifs à la sécurité et à l'ordre public. L'évaluation de processus a analysé des données relatives aux réformes internes de la police qui ont été obtenues par l'intermédiaire d'entretiens semi-structurés avec des administrateurs clés des cinq départements de police, ainsi que dans des documents écrits de la police et d'autres sources publiques. L'évaluation des impacts, quant à elle, s'est basée sur des variables contextuelles telles que des statistiques policières et des données de recensement, ainsi que sur des indicateurs d'impacts construit à partir des données du Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) relatives au sentiment d'insécurité, à la perception du désordre public et à la satisfaction de la population à l'égard de la police. Le SCS est un sondage régulier qui a permis d'interroger des habitants des cinq grandes zones urbaines à plusieurs reprises depuis le milieu des années 1980. L'évaluation de processus a abouti à un « Calendrier des activités » visant à créer des données de panel permettant de mesurer les progrès réalisés dans la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité à l'aide d'une grille d'évaluation à six dimensions à des intervalles de cinq ans entre 1990 et 2010. L'évaluation des impacts, effectuée ex post facto, a utilisé un concept de recherche non-expérimental (observational design) dans le but d'analyser les impacts de différents modèles de police de proximité dans des zones comparables à travers les cinq villes étudiées. Les quartiers urbains, délimités par zone de code postal, ont ainsi été regroupés par l'intermédiaire d'une typologie réalisée à l'aide d'algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique (machine learning). Des algorithmes supervisés et non supervisés ont été utilisés sur les données à haute dimensionnalité relatives à la criminalité, à la structure socio-économique et démographique et au cadre bâti dans le but de regrouper les quartiers urbains les plus similaires dans des clusters. D'abord, les cartes auto-organisatrices (self-organizing maps) ont été utilisées dans le but de réduire la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et de maximiser simultanément la variance inter-cluster des réponses au sondage. Ensuite, l'algorithme des forêts d'arbres décisionnels (random forests) a permis à la fois d'évaluer la pertinence de la typologie de quartier élaborée et de sélectionner les variables contextuelles clés afin de construire un modèle parcimonieux faisant un minimum d'erreurs de classification. Enfin, pour l'analyse des impacts, la méthode des appariements des coefficients de propension (propensity score matching) a été utilisée pour équilibrer les échantillons prétest-posttest en termes d'âge, de sexe et de niveau d'éducation des répondants au sein de chaque type de quartier ainsi identifié dans chacune des villes, avant d'effectuer un test statistique de la différence observée dans les indicateurs d'impacts. De plus, tous les résultats statistiquement significatifs ont été soumis à une analyse de sensibilité (sensitivity analysis) afin d'évaluer leur robustesse face à un biais potentiel dû à des covariables non observées. L'étude relève qu'au cours des quinze dernières années, les cinq services de police ont entamé des réformes majeures de leur organisation ainsi que de leurs stratégies opérationnelles et qu'ils ont noué des partenariats stratégiques afin de mettre en oeuvre la police de proximité. La typologie de quartier développée a abouti à une réduction de la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et permet d'expliquer une partie significative de la variance inter-cluster des indicateurs d'impacts avant la mise en oeuvre du traitement. Ceci semble suggérer que les méthodes de géocomputation aident à équilibrer les covariables observées et donc à réduire les menaces relatives à la validité interne d'un concept de recherche non-expérimental. Enfin, l'analyse des impacts a révélé que le sentiment d'insécurité a diminué de manière significative pendant la période 2000-2005 dans les quartiers se trouvant à l'intérieur et autour des centres-villes de Berne et de Zurich. Ces améliorations sont assez robustes face à des biais dus à des covariables inobservées et covarient dans le temps et l'espace avec la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité. L'hypothèse alternative envisageant que les diminutions observées dans le sentiment d'insécurité soient, partiellement, un résultat des interventions policières de proximité semble donc être aussi plausible que l'hypothèse nulle considérant l'absence absolue d'effet. Ceci, même si le concept de recherche non-expérimental mis en oeuvre ne peut pas complètement exclure la sélection et la régression à la moyenne comme explications alternatives. The current research project is both a process and impact evaluation of community policing in Switzerland's five major urban areas - Basel, Bern, Geneva, Lausanne, and Zurich. Community policing is both a philosophy and an organizational strategy that promotes a renewed partnership between the police and the community to solve problems of crime and disorder. The process evaluation data on police internal reforms were obtained through semi-structured interviews with key administrators from the five police departments as well as from police internal documents and additional public sources. The impact evaluation uses official crime records and census statistics as contextual variables as well as Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) data on fear of crime, perceptions of disorder, and public attitudes towards the police as outcome measures. The SCS is a standing survey instrument that has polled residents of the five urban areas repeatedly since the mid-1980s. The process evaluation produced a "Calendar of Action" to create panel data to measure community policing implementation progress over six evaluative dimensions in intervals of five years between 1990 and 2010. The impact evaluation, carried out ex post facto, uses an observational design that analyzes the impact of the different community policing models between matched comparison areas across the five cities. Using ZIP code districts as proxies for urban neighborhoods, geospatial data mining algorithms serve to develop a neighborhood typology in order to match the comparison areas. To this end, both unsupervised and supervised algorithms are used to analyze high-dimensional data on crime, the socio-economic and demographic structure, and the built environment in order to classify urban neighborhoods into clusters of similar type. In a first step, self-organizing maps serve as tools to develop a clustering algorithm that reduces the within-cluster variance in the contextual variables and simultaneously maximizes the between-cluster variance in survey responses. The random forests algorithm then serves to assess the appropriateness of the resulting neighborhood typology and to select the key contextual variables in order to build a parsimonious model that makes a minimum of classification errors. Finally, for the impact analysis, propensity score matching methods are used to match the survey respondents of the pretest and posttest samples on age, gender, and their level of education for each neighborhood type identified within each city, before conducting a statistical test of the observed difference in the outcome measures. Moreover, all significant results were subjected to a sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of these findings in the face of potential bias due to some unobserved covariates. The study finds that over the last fifteen years, all five police departments have undertaken major reforms of their internal organization and operating strategies and forged strategic partnerships in order to implement community policing. The resulting neighborhood typology reduced the within-cluster variance of the contextual variables and accounted for a significant share of the between-cluster variance in the outcome measures prior to treatment, suggesting that geocomputational methods help to balance the observed covariates and hence to reduce threats to the internal validity of an observational design. Finally, the impact analysis revealed that fear of crime dropped significantly over the 2000-2005 period in the neighborhoods in and around the urban centers of Bern and Zurich. These improvements are fairly robust in the face of bias due to some unobserved covariate and covary temporally and spatially with the implementation of community policing. The alternative hypothesis that the observed reductions in fear of crime were at least in part a result of community policing interventions thus appears at least as plausible as the null hypothesis of absolutely no effect, even if the observational design cannot completely rule out selection and regression to the mean as alternative explanations.

Scale decisions can reverse conclusions on community assembly processes.

AIM: Phylogenetic diversity patterns are increasingly being used to better understand the role of ecological and evolutionary processes in community assembly. Here, we quantify how these patterns are influenced by scale choices in terms of spatial and environmental extent and organismic scales. LOCATION: European Alps. METHODS: We applied 42 sampling strategies differing in their combination of focal scales. For each resulting sub-dataset, we estimated the phylogenetic diversity of the species pools, phylogenetic α-diversities of local communities, and statistics commonly used together with null models in order to infer non-random diversity patterns (i.e. phylogenetic clustering versus over-dispersion). Finally, we studied the effects of scale choices on these measures using regression analyses. RESULTS: Scale choices were decisive for revealing signals in diversity patterns. Notably, changes in focal scales sometimes reversed a pattern of over-dispersion into clustering. Organismic scale had a stronger effect than spatial and environmental extent. However, we did not find general rules for the direction of change from over-dispersion to clustering with changing scales. Importantly, these scale issues had only a weak influence when focusing on regional diversity patterns that change along abiotic gradients. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Our results call for caution when combining phylogenetic data with distributional data to study how and why communities differ from random expectations of phylogenetic relatedness. These analyses seem to be robust when the focus is on relating community diversity patterns to variation in habitat conditions, such as abiotic gradients. However, if the focus is on identifying relevant assembly rules for local communities, the uncertainty arising from a certain scale choice can be immense. In the latter case, it becomes necessary to test whether emerging patterns are robust to alternative scale choices.

A probabilistic approach to niche-based community models for spatial forecasts of assemblage properties and their uncertainties

Aim Conservation strategies are in need of predictions that capture spatial community composition and structure. Currently, the methods used to generate these predictions generally focus on deterministic processes and omit important stochastic processes and other unexplained variation in model outputs. Here we test a novel approach of community models that accounts for this variation and determine how well it reproduces observed properties of alpine butterfly communities. Location The western Swiss Alps. Methods We propose a new approach to process probabilistic predictions derived from stacked species distribution models (S-SDMs) in order to predict and assess the uncertainty in the predictions of community properties. We test the utility of our novel approach against a traditional threshold-based approach. We used mountain butterfly communities spanning a large elevation gradient as a case study and evaluated the ability of our approach to model species richness and phylogenetic diversity of communities. Results S-SDMs reproduced the observed decrease in phylogenetic diversity and species richness with elevation, syndromes of environmental filtering. The prediction accuracy of community properties vary along environmental gradient: variability in predictions of species richness was higher at low elevation, while it was lower for phylogenetic diversity. Our approach allowed mapping the variability in species richness and phylogenetic diversity projections. Main conclusion Using our probabilistic approach to process species distribution models outputs to reconstruct communities furnishes an improved picture of the range of possible assemblage realisations under similar environmental conditions given stochastic processes and help inform manager of the uncertainty in the modelling results

A case study of landslides and coping strategies in two villages of central-eastern Nepal

Landslides are an increasing problem in Nepal's Middle Hills due to both natural and human phenomena: mainly increasingly intense monsoon rains and a boom in rural road construction. This problem has largely been neglected due to underreporting of losses and the dispersed nature of landslides. Understanding how populations cope with landslides is a first step toward developing more effective landslide risk management programs. The present research focuses on two villages in Central-Eastern Nepal, both affected by active landslides but with different coping strategies. Research methods are interdisciplinary, based on a geological assessment of landslide risk and a socio-economic study of the villages using household questionnaires, focus group discussions and transect walks. Community risk maps are compared with geological landslide risk maps to better understand and communicate community risk perceptions, priorities and coping strategies. A modified typology of coping strategies is presented, based on previous work by Burton, Kates, and White (1993) that is useful for decision-makers for designing more effective programs for landslide mitigation. Main findings underscore that coping strategies, mainly seeking external assistance and outmigration, are closely linked to access to resources, ethnicity/social status and levels of community organization. Conclusions include the importance of investing in organizational skills, while building on local knowledge about landslide mitigation for reducing landslide risk. There is great potential to increase coping strategies by incorporating skills training on landslide mitigation in existing agricultural outreach and community forest user group training.

Development of metabolic labeling strategies to study changes in protein expression

Résumé : Les progrès techniques de la spectrométrie de masse (MS) ont contribué au récent développement de la protéomique. Cette technique peut actuellement détecter, identifier et quantifier des milliers de protéines. Toutefois, elle n'est pas encore assez puissante pour fournir une analyse complète des modifications du protéome corrélées à des phénomènes biologiques. Notre objectif était le développement d'une nouvelle stratégie pour la détection spécifique et la quantification des variations du protéome, basée sur la mesure de la synthèse des protéines plutôt que sur celle de la quantité de protéines totale. Pour cela, nous volions associer le marquage pulsé des protéines par des isotopes stables avec une méthode d'acquisition MS basée sur le balayage des ions précurseurs (precursor ion scan, ou PIS), afin de détecter spécifiquement les protéines ayant intégré les isotopes et d'estimer leur abondance par rapport aux protéines non marquées. Une telle approche peut identifier les protéines avec les plus hauts taux de synthèse dans une période de temps donnée, y compris les protéines dont l'expression augmente spécifiquement suite à un événement précis. Nous avons tout d'abord testé différents acides aminés marqués en combinaison avec des méthodes PIS spécifiques. Ces essais ont permis la détection spécifique des protéines marquées. Cependant, en raison des limitations instrumentales du spectromètre de masse utilisé pour les méthodes PIS, la sensibilité de cette approche s'est révélée être inférieure à une analyse non ciblée réalisée sur un instrument plus récent (Chapitre 2.1). Toutefois, pour l'analyse différentielle de deux milieux de culture conditionnés par des cellules cancéreuses humaines, nous avons utilisé le marquage métabolique pour distinguer les protéines d'origine cellulaire des protéines non marquées du sérum présentes dans les milieux de culture (Chapitre 2.2). Parallèlement, nous avons développé une nouvelle méthode de quantification nommée IBIS, qui utilise des paires d'isotopes stables d'acides aminés capables de produire des ions spécifiques qui peuvent être utilisés pour la quantification relative. La méthode IBIS a été appliquée à l'analyse de deux lignées cellulaires cancéreuses complètement marquées, mais de manière différenciée, par des paires d'acides aminés (Chapitre 2.3). Ensuite, conformément à l'objectif initial de cette thèse, nous avons utilisé une variante pulsée de l'IBIS pour détecter des modifications du protéome dans des cellules HeLa infectée par le virus humain Herpes Simplex-1 (Chapitre 2.4). Ce virus réprime la synthèse des protéines des cellules hôtes afin d'exploiter leur mécanisme de traduction pour la production massive de virions. Comme prévu, de hauts taux de synthèse ont été mesurés pour les protéines virales détectées, attestant de leur haut niveau d'expression. Nous avons de plus identifié un certain nombre de protéines humaines dont le rapport de synthèse et de dégradation (S/D) a été modifié par l'infection virale, ce qui peut donner des indications sur les stratégies utilisées par les virus pour détourner la machinerie cellulaire. En conclusion, nous avons montré dans ce travail que le marquage métabolique peut être employé de façon non conventionnelle pour étudier des dimensions peu explorées en protéomique. Summary : In recent years major technical advancements greatly supported the development of mass spectrometry (MS)-based proteomics. Currently, this technique can efficiently detect, identify and quantify thousands of proteins. However, it is not yet sufficiently powerful to provide a comprehensive analysis of the proteome changes correlated with biological phenomena. The aim of our project was the development of ~a new strategy for the specific detection and quantification of proteomé variations based on measurements of protein synthesis rather than total protein amounts. The rationale for this approach was that changes in protein synthesis more closely reflect dynamic cellular responses than changes in total protein concentrations. Our starting idea was to couple "pulsed" stable-isotope labeling of proteins with a specific MS acquisition method based on precursor ion scan (PIS), to specifically detect proteins that incorporated the label and to simultaneously estimate their abundance, relative to the unlabeled protein isoform. Such approach could highlight proteins with the highest synthesis rate in a given time frame, including proteins specifically up-regulated by a given biological stimulus. As a first step, we tested different isotope-labeled amino acids in combination with dedicated PIS methods and showed that this leads to specific detection of labeled proteins. Sensitivity, however, turned out to be lower than an untargeted analysis run on a more recent instrument, due to MS hardware limitations (Chapter 2.1). We next used metabolic labeling to distinguish the proteins of cellular origin from a high background of unlabeled (serum) proteins, for the differential analysis of two serum-containing culture media conditioned by labeled human cancer cells (Chapter 2.2). As a parallel project we developed a new quantification method (named ISIS), which uses pairs of stable-isotope labeled amino acids able to produce specific reporter ions, which can be used for relative quantification. The ISIS method was applied to the analysis of two fully, yet differentially labeled cancer cell lines, as described in Chapter 2.3. Next, in line with the original purpose of this thesis, we used a "pulsed" variant of ISIS to detect proteome changes in HeLa cells after the infection with human Herpes Simplex Virus-1 (Chapter 2.4). This virus is known to repress the synthesis of host cell proteins to exploit the translation machinery for the massive production of virions. As expected, high synthesis rates were measured for the detected viral proteins, confirming their up-regulation. Moreover, we identified a number of human proteins whose synthesis/degradation ratio (S/D) was affected by the viral infection and which could provide clues on the strategies used by the virus to hijack the cellular machinery. Overall, in this work, we showed that metabolic labeling can be employed in alternative ways to investigate poorly explored dimensions in proteomics.

Using life strategies to explore the vulnerability of ecosystem services to invasion by alien plants

Invasive plants can have different effects of ecosystem functioning and on the provision of ecosystem services, from strongly deleterious impacts to positive effects. The nature and intensity of such effects will depend on the service and ecosystem being considered, but also on features of life strategies of invaders that influence their invasiveness as well as their influence of key processes of receiving ecosystems. To address the combined effect of these various factors we developed a robust and efficient methodological framework that allows to identify areas of possible conflict between ecosystem services and alien invasive plants, considering interactions between landscape invasibility and species invasiveness. Our framework combines the statistical robustness of multi-model inference, efficient techniques to map ecosystem services, and life strategies as a functional link between invasion, functional changes and potential provision of services by invaded ecosystems. The framework was applied to a test region in Portugal, for which we could successfully predict the current patterns of plant invasion, of ecosystem service provision, and finally of probable conflict (expressing concern for negative impacts, and value for positive impacts on services) between alien species richness (total and per plant life strategy) and the potential provision of selected services. Potential conflicts were identified for all combinations of plant strategy and ecosystem service, with an emphasis for those concerning conflicts with carbon sequestration, water regulation and wood production. Lower levels of conflict were obtained between invasive plant strategies and the habitat for biodiversity supporting service. The added value of the proposed framework in the context of landscape management and planning is discussed in perspective of anticipation of conflicts, mitigation of negative impacts, and potentiation of positive effects of plant invasions on ecosystems and their services.

Comparing impact and cost-effectiveness of primary prevention strategies for lipid-lowering.

BACKGROUND: Lipid-lowering therapy is costly but effective at reducing coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness and public health impact of Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III) guidelines and compare with a range of risk- and age-based alternative strategies. DESIGN: The CHD Policy Model, a Markov-type cost-effectiveness model. DATA SOURCES: National surveys (1999 to 2004), vital statistics (2000), the Framingham Heart Study (1948 to 2000), other published data, and a direct survey of statin costs (2008). TARGET POPULATION: U.S. population age 35 to 85 years. Time Horizon: 2010 to 2040. PERSPECTIVE: Health care system. INTERVENTION: Lowering of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol with HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins). OUTCOME MEASURE: Incremental cost-effectiveness. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: Full adherence to ATP III primary prevention guidelines would require starting (9.7 million) or intensifying (1.4 million) statin therapy for 11.1 million adults and would prevent 20,000 myocardial infarctions and 10,000 CHD deaths per year at an annual net cost of $3.6 billion ($42,000/QALY) if low-intensity statins cost $2.11 per pill. The ATP III guidelines would be preferred over alternative strategies if society is willing to pay $50,000/QALY and statins cost $1.54 to $2.21 per pill. At higher statin costs, ATP III is not cost-effective; at lower costs, more liberal statin-prescribing strategies would be preferred; and at costs less than $0.10 per pill, treating all persons with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels greater than 3.4 mmol/L (>130 mg/dL) would yield net cost savings. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: Results are sensitive to the assumptions that LDL cholesterol becomes less important as a risk factor with increasing age and that little disutility results from taking a pill every day. LIMITATION: Randomized trial evidence for statin effectiveness is not available for all subgroups. CONCLUSION: The ATP III guidelines are relatively cost-effective and would have a large public health impact if implemented fully in the United States. Alternate strategies may be preferred, however, depending on the cost of statins and how much society is willing to pay for better health outcomes. FUNDING: Flight Attendants' Medical Research Institute and the Swanson Family Fund. The Framingham Heart Study and Framingham Offspring Study are conducted and supported by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

Development of CBCT-based prostate setup correction strategies and impact of rectal distension.

BACKGROUND: Cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT) systems are widely used tools to verify and correct the target position before each fraction, allowing to maximize treatment accuracy and precision. In this study, we evaluate automatic three-dimensional intensity-based rigid registration (RR) methods for prostate setup correction using CBCT scans and study the impact of rectal distension on registration quality. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 115 CBCT scans of 10 prostate patients. CT-to-CBCT registration was performed using (a) global RR, (b) bony RR, or (c) bony RR refined by a local prostate RR using the CT clinical target volume (CTV) expanded with 1-to-20-mm varying margins. After propagation of the manual CT contours, automatic CBCT contours were generated. For evaluation, a radiation oncologist manually delineated the CTV on the CBCT scans. The propagated and manual CBCT contours were compared using the Dice similarity and a measure based on the bidirectional local distance (BLD). We also conducted a blind visual assessment of the quality of the propagated segmentations. Moreover, we automatically quantified rectal distension between the CT and CBCT scans without using the manual CBCT contours and we investigated its correlation with the registration failures. To improve the registration quality, the air in the rectum was replaced with soft tissue using a filter. The results with and without filtering were compared. RESULTS: The statistical analysis of the Dice coefficients and the BLD values resulted in highly significant differences (p<10(-6)) for the 5-mm and 8-mm local RRs vs the global, bony and 1-mm local RRs. The 8-mm local RR provided the best compromise between accuracy and robustness (Dice median of 0.814 and 97% of success with filtering the air in the rectum). We observed that all failures were due to high rectal distension. Moreover, the visual assessment confirmed the superiority of the 8-mm local RR over the bony RR. CONCLUSION: The most successful CT-to-CBCT RR method proved to be the 8-mm local RR. We have shown the correlation between its registration failures and rectal distension. Furthermore, we have provided a simple (easily applicable in routine) and automatic method to quantify rectal distension and to predict registration failure using only the manual CT contours.

Perinatal choline supplementation reveals a dissociation between two types of spatial strategies.

Choline supplementation improving memory functions in rodents is assumed to increase the synthesis and release of acetylcholine in the brain. We have found that a combined pre- and postnatal supplementation results in long-lasting facilitation of spatial memory in juvenile rats when training was conducted in presence of a local salient cue. The present work was aimed at analysing the effects of peri- and postnatal choline supplementation on spatial abilities of naive adult rats. Rats given a perinatal choline supplementation were trained in various cued procedures of the Morris navigation task when aged 5 months. The treatment had a specific effect of reducing the escape latency of the rats when the platform was at a fixed position in space and surrounded by a suspended cue. This effect was associated with an increased spatial bias when the cue and platform were removed. In this condition, the control rats showed impaired spatial discrimination following the removal of the target cue, most likely due to an overshadowing of the distant environmental cues. This impairment was not observed in the treated rats. Further training with the suspended cue at unpredictable places in the pool revealed longer escape latencies in the control than in the treated rats suggesting that this procedure induced a selective perturbation of the normal but not of the treated rats. A special probe trial with the cue at an irrelevant position and no escape platform revealed a significant bias of the control rats toward the cue and of the treated rats toward the uncued spatial escape position. This behavioural dissociation suggests that a salient cue associated with the target induces an alternative "non spatial" guidance strategy in normal rats, with the risk of overshadowing of the more distant spatial cues. In this condition, the choline supplementation facilities a spatial reliance on the cue, that is an overall facilitation of learning a set of spatial relations between several visual cues. As a consequence, the improved escape in presence of the cue is associated with a stronger memory of the spatial position following disappearance of the cue. This and previous observations suggest that a specific spatial attention process relies on the buffering of highly salient visual cues.to facilitate integration of their relative position in the environment.

Uptake of new treatment strategies for deep vein thrombosis: an international audit.

OBJECTIVE: Study of the uptake of new medical technologies provides useful information on the transfer of published evidence into usual practice. We conducted an audit of selected hospitals in three countries (Canada, France, and Switzerland) to identify clinical predictors of low-molecular-weight (LMW) heparin use and outpatient treatment, and to compare the pace of uptake of these new therapeutic approaches across hospitals. DESIGN: Historical review of medical records. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: We reviewed the medical records of 3043 patients diagnosed with deep vein thrombosis (DVT) in five Canadian, two French, and two Swiss teaching hospitals from 1994 to 1998. Measures. We explored independent clinical variables associated with LMW heparin use and outpatient treatment, and determined crude and adjusted rates of LMW heparin use and outpatient treatment across hospitals. RESULTS: For the years studied, the overall rates of LMW heparin use and outpatient treatment in the study sample were 34.1 and 15.8%, respectively, with higher rates of use in later years. Many comorbidities were negatively associated with outpatient treatment, and risk-adjusted rates of use of these new approaches varied significantly across hospitals. CONCLUSION: There has been a relatively rapid uptake of LMW heparins and outpatient treatment for DVT in their early years of availability, but the pace of uptake has varied considerably across hospitals and countries.