Three essays on the psychology of investment and financial markets

Préface My thesis consists of three essays where I consider equilibrium asset prices and investment strategies when the market is likely to experience crashes and possibly sharp windfalls. Although each part is written as an independent and self contained article, the papers share a common behavioral approach in representing investors preferences regarding to extremal returns. Investors utility is defined over their relative performance rather than over their final wealth position, a method first proposed by Markowitz (1952b) and by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), that I extend to incorporate preferences over extremal outcomes. With the failure of the traditional expected utility models in reproducing the observed stylized features of financial markets, the Prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979) offered the first significant alternative to the expected utility paradigm by considering that people focus on gains and losses rather than on final positions. Under this setting, Barberis, Huang, and Santos (2000) and McQueen and Vorkink (2004) were able to build a representative agent optimization model which solution reproduced some of the observed risk premium and excess volatility. The research in behavioral finance is relatively new and its potential still to explore. The three essays composing my thesis propose to use and extend this setting to study investors behavior and investment strategies in a market where crashes and sharp windfalls are likely to occur. In the first paper, the preferences of a representative agent, relative to time varying positive and negative extremal thresholds are modelled and estimated. A new utility function that conciliates between expected utility maximization and tail-related performance measures is proposed. The model estimation shows that the representative agent preferences reveals a significant level of crash aversion and lottery-pursuit. Assuming a single risky asset economy the proposed specification is able to reproduce some of the distributional features exhibited by financial return series. The second part proposes and illustrates a preference-based asset allocation model taking into account investors crash aversion. Using the skewed t distribution, optimal allocations are characterized as a resulting tradeoff between the distribution four moments. The specification highlights the preference for odd moments and the aversion for even moments. Qualitatively, optimal portfolios are analyzed in terms of firm characteristics and in a setting that reflects real-time asset allocation, a systematic over-performance is obtained compared to the aggregate stock market. Finally, in my third article, dynamic option-based investment strategies are derived and illustrated for investors presenting downside loss aversion. The problem is solved in closed form when the stock market exhibits stochastic volatility and jumps. The specification of downside loss averse utility functions allows corresponding terminal wealth profiles to be expressed as options on the stochastic discount factor contingent on the loss aversion level. Therefore dynamic strategies reduce to the replicating portfolio using exchange traded and well selected options, and the risky stock.

Food availability affects the maternal transfer of androgens and antibodies into eggs of a colonial seabird.

Mothers can improve the quality of their offspring by increasing the level of certain components in their eggs. To examine whether or not mothers increase deposition of such components in eggs as a function of food availability, we food-supplemented black-legged kittiwake females (Rissa tridactyla) before and during egg laying and compared deposition of androgens and antibodies into eggs of first and experimentally induced replacement clutches. Food-supplemented females transferred lower amounts of androgens and antibodies into eggs of induced replacement clutches than did non-food-supplemented mothers, whereas first clutches presented no differences between treatments. Our results suggest that when females are in lower condition, they transfer more androgens and antibodies into eggs to facilitate chick development despite potential long-term costs for juveniles. Females in prime condition may avoid these potential long-term costs because they can provide their chicks with more and higher quality resources.

I have faith in my thing, you know what I mean? Mixed method elements on individual investments on religious markets.

In contemporary society, religious signification and secular systems mix and influence each other. Holistic conceptions of a world in which man is integrated harmoniously with nature meet representations of a world run by an immanent God. On the market of the various systems, the individual goes from one system to another, following his immediate needs and expectations without necessarily leaving any marks in a meaningful long term system. This article presents the first results of an ongoing research in Switzerland on contemporary religion focusing on (new) paths of socialization of modern that individuals and the various (non-) belief systems that they simultaneously develop

No experimental evidence that sibling competition induces young to switch nests in the colonial Alpine swift, Apus melba

Adoption is frequent in colonial animals where opportunities for dependent young to receive care from nonbiological parents are high. The departure of dependent young from their original family to seek adoption in neighbouring families is thought to be induced by sibling competition for access to limited resources provided by poor-quality parents. We tested this hypothesis in the colonial Alpine swift by manipulating the number of young reared per brood, with the prediction that offspring from enlarged broods switch nests more frequently than those from reduced broods. Although nestling swifts hatch with little locomotor activity, from 20 days until their first flight at 50-70 days they frequently move out of their nests to seek adoption in neighbouring families. Although nestlings reared in experimentally enlarged broods were lighter and their body mass at day 20 after hatching was more variable than in nestlings reared in reduced broods, there was no difference between the two treatments in the frequency of nests switching and in the age when nestlings switched nests for the first time. However, consistent with other evidence that nest switching by nestling swifts evolved as a strategy to reduce ectoparasite load, young from broods with naturally high numbers of the ectoparasitic louse fly Crataerina melbae were more prone to switch nests. This shows that ectoparasitism rather than sibling competition is a key proximate factor promoting the evolution of nest switching in the colonial Alpine swift. (c) 2006 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of irrigation water and processing on the microbial quality of lettuces produced and sold on markets in Dakar (Senegal)

The aim of this survey is to assess the microbiological impact of irrigation water on lettuces produced on two urban agricultural sites and sold on markets; 6 and 7%, respectively, of lettuces coming from the sites of Pikine and Patte d'Oie were Salmonella spp. positive. Lettuces irrigated with shallow groundwater (''Ceanes'' water) were more contaminated (8% at both Pikine and Patte d'Oie sites) compared to those irrigated with wastewater (4% at Pikine) or well water (5% at Patte d'Oie). As for the lettuces in marketplaces, their contamination seems to depend on the type of treatment occurring before sale. Lettuces previously washed in the ``Ceanes'' were more contaminated than those rinsed with tap water at the marketplace. Salmonella spp. have been isolated from all marketplaces. However, the rates of contamination in markets surrounding Patte d'Oie are higher (9 and 11% at Grand Yoff and Dalifort) than those surrounding Pikine (4 and 2% at Zinc and Sham) or Rufisque, the control (2%). Our results confirm that the reuse of wastewater in irrigation is an alternative to animal manure. Its risk of microbial contamination can be significantly reduced by washing the vegetables with tap water before they are sold. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Genetic and environmental components of phenotypic variation in immune response and body size of a colonial bird, Delichon urbica (the house martin).

Directional selection for parasite resistance is often intense in highly social host species. Using a partial cross-fostering experiment we studied environmental and genetic variation in immune response and morphology in a highly colonial bird species, the house martin (Delichon urbica). We manipulated intensity of infestation of house martin nests by the haematophagous parasitic house martin bug Oeciacus hirundinis either by spraying nests with a weak pesticide or by inoculating them with 50 bugs. Parasitism significantly affected tarsus length, T cell response, immunoglobulin and leucocyte concentrations. We found evidence of strong environmental effects on nestling body mass, body condition, wing length and tarsus length, and evidence of significant additive genetic variance for wing length and haematocrit. We found significant environmental variance, but no significant additive genetic variance in immune response parameters such as T cell response to the antigenic phytohemagglutinin, immunoglobulins, and relative and absolute numbers of leucocytes. Environmental variances were generally greater than additive genetic variances, and the low heritabilities of phenotypic traits were mainly a consequence of large environmental variances and small additive genetic variances. Hence, highly social bird species such as the house martin, which are subject to intense selection by parasites, have a limited scope for immediate microevolutionary response to selection because of low heritabilities, but also a limited scope for long-term response to selection because evolvability as indicated by small additive genetic coefficients of variation is weak.