Looking for orders of magnitude : five essays in trade and the environment and economic geography

General Summary Although the chapters of this thesis address a variety of issues, the principal aim is common: test economic ideas in an international economic context. The intention has been to supply empirical findings using the largest suitable data sets and making use of the most appropriate empirical techniques. This thesis can roughly be divided into two parts: the first one, corresponding to the first two chapters, investigates the link between trade and the environment, the second one, the last three chapters, is related to economic geography issues. Environmental problems are omnipresent in the daily press nowadays and one of the arguments put forward is that globalisation causes severe environmental problems through the reallocation of investments and production to countries with less stringent environmental regulations. A measure of the amplitude of this undesirable effect is provided in the first part. The third and the fourth chapters explore the productivity effects of agglomeration. The computed spillover effects between different sectors indicate how cluster-formation might be productivity enhancing. The last chapter is not about how to better understand the world but how to measure it and it was just a great pleasure to work on it. "The Economist" writes every week about the impressive population and economic growth observed in China and India, and everybody agrees that the world's center of gravity has shifted. But by how much and how fast did it shift? An answer is given in the last part, which proposes a global measure for the location of world production and allows to visualize our results in Google Earth. A short summary of each of the five chapters is provided below. The first chapter, entitled "Unraveling the World-Wide Pollution-Haven Effect" investigates the relative strength of the pollution haven effect (PH, comparative advantage in dirty products due to differences in environmental regulation) and the factor endowment effect (FE, comparative advantage in dirty, capital intensive products due to differences in endowments). We compute the pollution content of imports using the IPPS coefficients (for three pollutants, namely biological oxygen demand, sulphur dioxide and toxic pollution intensity for all manufacturing sectors) provided by the World Bank and use a gravity-type framework to isolate the two above mentioned effects. Our study covers 48 countries that can be classified into 29 Southern and 19 Northern countries and uses the lead content of gasoline as proxy for environmental stringency. For North-South trade we find significant PH and FE effects going in the expected, opposite directions and being of similar magnitude. However, when looking at world trade, the effects become very small because of the high North-North trade share, where we have no a priori expectations about the signs of these effects. Therefore popular fears about the trade effects of differences in environmental regulations might by exaggerated. The second chapter is entitled "Is trade bad for the Environment? Decomposing worldwide SO2 emissions, 1990-2000". First we construct a novel and large database containing reasonable estimates of SO2 emission intensities per unit labor that vary across countries, periods and manufacturing sectors. Then we use these original data (covering 31 developed and 31 developing countries) to decompose the worldwide SO2 emissions into the three well known dynamic effects (scale, technique and composition effect). We find that the positive scale (+9,5%) and the negative technique (-12.5%) effect are the main driving forces of emission changes. Composition effects between countries and sectors are smaller, both negative and of similar magnitude (-3.5% each). Given that trade matters via the composition effects this means that trade reduces total emissions. We next construct, in a first experiment, a hypothetical world where no trade happens, i.e. each country produces its imports at home and does no longer produce its exports. The difference between the actual and this no-trade world allows us (under the omission of price effects) to compute a static first-order trade effect. The latter now increases total world emissions because it allows, on average, dirty countries to specialize in dirty products. However, this effect is smaller (3.5%) in 2000 than in 1990 (10%), in line with the negative dynamic composition effect identified in the previous exercise. We then propose a second experiment, comparing effective emissions with the maximum or minimum possible level of SO2 emissions. These hypothetical levels of emissions are obtained by reallocating labour accordingly across sectors within each country (under the country-employment and the world industry-production constraints). Using linear programming techniques, we show that emissions are reduced by 90% with respect to the worst case, but that they could still be reduced further by another 80% if emissions were to be minimized. The findings from this chapter go together with those from chapter one in the sense that trade-induced composition effect do not seem to be the main source of pollution, at least in the recent past. Going now to the economic geography part of this thesis, the third chapter, entitled "A Dynamic Model with Sectoral Agglomeration Effects" consists of a short note that derives the theoretical model estimated in the fourth chapter. The derivation is directly based on the multi-regional framework by Ciccone (2002) but extends it in order to include sectoral disaggregation and a temporal dimension. This allows us formally to write present productivity as a function of past productivity and other contemporaneous and past control variables. The fourth chapter entitled "Sectoral Agglomeration Effects in a Panel of European Regions" takes the final equation derived in chapter three to the data. We investigate the empirical link between density and labour productivity based on regional data (245 NUTS-2 regions over the period 1980-2003). Using dynamic panel techniques allows us to control for the possible endogeneity of density and for region specific effects. We find a positive long run elasticity of density with respect to labour productivity of about 13%. When using data at the sectoral level it seems that positive cross-sector and negative own-sector externalities are present in manufacturing while financial services display strong positive own-sector effects. The fifth and last chapter entitled "Is the World's Economic Center of Gravity Already in Asia?" computes the world economic, demographic and geographic center of gravity for 1975-2004 and compares them. Based on data for the largest cities in the world and using the physical concept of center of mass, we find that the world's economic center of gravity is still located in Europe, even though there is a clear shift towards Asia. To sum up, this thesis makes three main contributions. First, it provides new estimates of orders of magnitudes for the role of trade in the globalisation and environment debate. Second, it computes reliable and disaggregated elasticities for the effect of density on labour productivity in European regions. Third, it allows us, in a geometrically rigorous way, to track the path of the world's economic center of gravity.

Mortality from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Europe and other areas of the world: an update.

OBJECTIVE: To update trends in mortality from coronary heart diseases (CHD) and cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) over the period 1981-2004 in Europe, the USA, Latin America, Japan and other selected areas of the world. METHODS: Age-standardized mortality rates were derived from the World Health Organization database. Joinpoint analysis was used to identify significant changes in trends. RESULTS: In the European Union (27 countries), CHD mortality in men declined from 139/100,000 in 1985-1989 to 93/100,000 in 2000-2004 (-33%). In women, the fall was from 61/100,000 to 44/100,000 (-27%). In this area, a decline by over 30% was also registered in CVD mortality for both sexes. In the Russian Federation and other countries of the former Soviet Union, CHD rates in 2000-2004 were exceedingly high, around 380/100,000 men and 170/100,000 women in Russia, 430 for men and 240 for women in Ukraine, 420 and 200 in Belarus. For CVD, a similar situation was registered, with mortality rates of 226/100,000 for men and 159/100,000 for women in 2004 in the Russian Federation, and more than 24% increase since the late 1980s for men and 15% for women. CHD and CVD mortality continued to decline in most Latin American countries, Australia and other areas considered, including Asia (even if with marked differences). CONCLUSION: Although mortality from CHD and CVD continues to decline in several areas of the world including most countries of Europe and of the America providing data and Australia, unfavourable trends were still observed in the Russian Federation and other countries of the former Soviet Union, whose recent rates remain exceedingly high.

Public particiation and the legitimacy of intergovernmental decision-making : a focus on the World Trade Organization

The legitimacy of the WTO's decision-making process has always been questioned, and many have advocated public participation mechanisms as a remedy. The present study considers the limits and potential of these mechanisms by advancing a conceptual framework, which distinguishes the four 'implementation parameters' of public participation: the goal, the object, the modalities, and the actors. It addresses the issue of legitimacy by considering to what extent, and by virtue of which legal developments, one can see implementing the democratic principle as a goal for public participation in the context of the WTO. By analyzing the institutional structure of the WTO and its different types of decisions, it then outlines how this goal should influence the object and modalities of public participation, which decision-making procedures should be opened to public participation, and how the mechanisms should be implemented in practice. Finally, it suggests speciflrc amendments to existing WTO affangements on public participation

As the world turns: short-term human spatial memory in egocentric and allocentric coordinates

We aimed to determine whether human subjects' reliance on different sources of spatial information encoded in different frames of reference (i.e., egocentric versus allocentric) affects their performance, decision time and memory capacity in a short-term spatial memory task performed in the real world. Subjects were asked to play the Memory game (a.k.a. the Concentration game) without an opponent, in four different conditions that controlled for the subjects' reliance on egocentric and/or allocentric frames of reference for the elaboration of a spatial representation of the image locations enabling maximal efficiency. We report experimental data from young adult men and women, and describe a mathematical model to estimate human short-term spatial memory capacity. We found that short-term spatial memory capacity was greatest when an egocentric spatial frame of reference enabled subjects to encode and remember the image locations. However, when egocentric information was not reliable, short-term spatial memory capacity was greater and decision time shorter when an allocentric representation of the image locations with respect to distant objects in the surrounding environment was available, as compared to when only a spatial representation encoding the relationships between the individual images, independent of the surrounding environment, was available. Our findings thus further demonstrate that changes in viewpoint produced by the movement of images placed in front of a stationary subject is not equivalent to the movement of the subject around stationary images. We discuss possible limitations of classical neuropsychological and virtual reality experiments of spatial memory, which typically restrict the sensory information normally available to human subjects in the real world.

Prophylactic isolated limb perfusion for localized, high-risk limb melanoma: results of a multicenter randomized phase III trial. European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Malignant Melanoma Cooperative Group Protocol 18832, the World Health Organization Melanoma Program Trial 15, and the North American Perfusion Group Southwest Oncology Group-8593.

PURPOSE: Patients with primary cutaneous melanoma > or = 1.5 mm in thickness are at high risk of having regional micrometastases at the time of initial surgical treatment. A phase III international study was designed to evaluate whether prophylactic isolated limb perfusion (ILP) could prevent regional recurrence and influence survival. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 832 assessable patients from 16 centers entered the study; 412 were randomized to wide excision (WE) only and 420 to WE plus ILP with melphalan and mild hyperthermia. Median age was 50 years, 68% of patients were female, 79% of melanomas were located on a lower limb, and 47% had a thickness > or = 3 mm. RESULTS: Median follow-up duration is 6.4 years. There was a trend for a longer disease-free interval (DFI) after ILP. The difference was significant for patients who did not undergo elective lymph node dissection (ELND). The impact of ILP was clearly on the occurrence-as first site of progression - of in-transit metastases (ITM), which were reduced from 6.6% to 3.3%, and of regional lymph node (RLN) metastases, with a reduction from 16.7% to 12.6%. There was no benefit from ILP in terms of time to distant metastasis or survival. Side effects were higher after ILP, but transient in most patients. There were two amputations for limb toxicity after ILP. CONCLUSION: Prophylactic ILP with melphalan cannot be recommended as an adjunct to standard surgery in high-risk primary limb melanoma.

The role of proteolytic processing and the stable signal peptide in expression of the Old World arenavirus envelope glycoprotein ectodomain.

Maturation of the arenavirus GP precursor (GPC) involves proteolytic processing by cellular signal peptidase and the proprotein convertase subtilisin kexin isozyme 1 (SKI-1)/site 1 protease (S1P), yielding a tripartite complex comprised of a stable signal peptide (SSP), the receptor-binding GP1, and the fusion-active transmembrane GP2. Here we investigated the roles of SKI-1/S1P processing and SSP in the biosynthesis of the recombinant GP ectodomains of lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) and Lassa virus (LASV). When expressed in mammalian cells, the LCMV and LASV GP ectodomains underwent processing by SKI-1/S1P, followed by dissociation of GP1 from GP2. The GP2 ectodomain spontaneously formed trimers as revealed by chemical cross-linking. The endogenous SSP, known to be crucial for maturation and transport of full-length arenavirus GPC was dispensable for processing and secretion of the soluble GP ectodomain, suggesting a specific role of SSP in the stable prefusion conformation and transport of full-length GPC.

Rabies postexposure prophylaxis in routine practice in view of the new centers for disease control and prevention and world health organization recommendations.

Background. New recommendations for rabies postexposure prophylaxis (PEP) were published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization in 2010. In view of these new recommendations, we investigated the adequacy of rabies PEP among patients consulting our travel clinic. Methods. A retrospective analysis of the files of all patients who consulted for rabies PEP at the Travel Clinic of the University Hospital in Lausanne, Switzerland, between January 2005 and August 2011 was conducted. Results. A total of 110 patients who received rabies PEP were identified. The median age of the patients was 34 years (range, 2-79 years), and 53% were women. Ninety subjects were potentially exposed to rabies while travelling abroad. Shortcomings in the management of these patients were (1) late initiation of rabies PEP in travelers who waited to seek medical care until returning to Switzerland, (2) administration of human rabies immunoglobulin (HRIG) to only 7 of 50 travelers (14%) who sought care abroad and for whom HRIG was indicated, and (3) antibody levels <0.5 IU/mL in 6 of 90 patients (6.7%) after 4 doses of vaccine. Conclusions. Patients do not always receive optimal rabies PEP under real-life conditions. A significant proportion of patients did not develop adequate antibody levels after 4 doses of vaccine. These data indicate that the measurement of antibody levels on day 21 of the Essen PEP regimen is useful in order to verify an adequate immune response.

A Confluence of Risks: Control and Compliance in the World of Unstructured Data, Big Data and the Cloud

The emergence of powerful new technologies, the existence of large quantities of data, and increasing demands for the extraction of added value from these technologies and data have created a number of significant challenges for those charged with both corporate and information technology management. The possibilities are great, the expectations high, and the risks significant. Organisations seeking to employ cloud technologies and exploit the value of the data to which they have access, be this in the form of "Big Data" available from different external sources or data held within the organisation, in structured or unstructured formats, need to understand the risks involved in such activities. Data owners have responsibilities towards the subjects of the data and must also, frequently, demonstrate that they are in compliance with current standards, laws and regulations. This thesis sets out to explore the nature of the technologies that organisations might utilise, identify the most pertinent constraints and risks, and propose a framework for the management of data from discovery to external hosting that will allow the most significant risks to be managed through the definition, implementation, and performance of appropriate internal control activities.

Analytical progresses of the International Olympic Committee and World Anti-Doping Agency Olympic laboratories.

The Summer Olympic Games constitute the biggest concentration of human sports and activities in a particular place and time since 776 BCE, when the written history of the Olympic Games in Olympia began. Summer and Winter Olympic anti-doping laboratories, accredited by the International Olympic Committee in the past and the World Anti-Doping Agency in the present times, acquire worldwide interest to apply all new analytical advancements in the fight against doping in sports, hoping that this major human event will not become dirty by association with this negative phenomenon. This article summarizes the new analytical progresses, technologies and knowledge used by the Olympic laboratories, which for the vast majority of them are, eventually, incorporated into routine anti-doping analysis.