Implementing statistical learning methods through Bayesian networks (Part 2): bayesian evaluations for results of black toner analyses in forensic document examination

This paper presents and discusses the use of Bayesian procedures - introduced through the use of Bayesian networks in Part I of this series of papers - for 'learning' probabilities from data. The discussion will relate to a set of real data on characteristics of black toners commonly used in printing and copying devices. Particular attention is drawn to the incorporation of the proposed procedures as an integral part in probabilistic inference schemes (notably in the form of Bayesian networks) that are intended to address uncertainties related to particular propositions of interest (e.g., whether or not a sample originates from a particular source). The conceptual tenets of the proposed methodologies are presented along with aspects of their practical implementation using currently available Bayesian network software.

Man Made Black Holes and Big Bangs: Diffusion and Integration of Scientific Information into Everyday Thinking

Drawing on Social Representations Theory, this study investigates focalisation and anchoring during the diffusion of information concerning the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), the particle accelerator at the European Organisation for Nuclear Research (CERN). We hypothesised that people focus on striking elements of the message, abandoning others, that the nature of the initial information affects diffusion of information, and that information is anchored in prior attitudes toward CERN and science. A serial reproduction experiment with two generations and four chains of reproduction diffusing controversial versus descriptive information about the LHC shows a reduction of information through generations, the persistence of terminology regarding the controversy and a decrease of other elements for participants exposed to polemical information. Concerning anchoring, positive attitudes toward CERN and science increase the use of expert terminology unrelated to the controversy. This research highlights the relevance of a social representational approach in the public understanding of science.

Contribution of isotope ratio mass spectrometry to the investigation of improvised explosives: isotopic study of black powders ans ammonium nitrates

The establishment of legislative rules about explosives in the eighties has reduced the illicit use of military and civilian explosives. However, bomb-makers have rapidly taken advantage of substances easily accessible and intended for licit uses to produce their own explosives. This change in strategy has given rise to an increase of improvised explosive charges, which is moreover assisted by the ease of implementation of the recipes, widely available through open sources. While the nature of the explosive charges has evolved, instrumental methods currently used in routine, although more sensitive than before, have a limited power of discrimination and allow mostly the determination of the chemical nature of the substance. Isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) has been applied to a wide range of forensic materials. Conclusions drawn from the majority of the studies stress its high power of discrimination. Preliminary studies conducted so far on the isotopic analysis of intact explosives (pre-blast) have shown that samples with the same chemical composition and coming from different sources could be differentiated. The measurement of stable isotope ratios appears therefore as a new and remarkable analytical tool for the discrimination or the identification of a substance with a definite source. However, much research is still needed to assess the validity of the results in order to use them either in an operational prospect or in court. Through the isotopic study of black powders and ammonium nitrates, this research aims at evaluating the contribution of isotope ratio mass spectrometry to the investigation of explosives, both from a pre-blast and from a post-blast approach. More specifically, the goal of the research is to provide additional elements necessary to a valid interpretation of the results, when used in explosives investigation. This work includes a fundamental study on the variability of the isotopic profile of black powder and ammonium nitrate in both space and time. On one hand, the inter-variability between manufacturers and, particularly, the intra-variability within a manufacturer has been studied. On the other hand, the stability of the isotopic profile over time has been evaluated through the aging of these substances exposed to different environmental conditions. The second part of this project considers the applicability of this high-precision technology to traces and residues of explosives, taking account of the characteristics specific to the field, including their sampling, a probable isotopic fractionation during the explosion, and the interferences with the matrix of the site.

Characteristics of HIV patients referred to a medication adherence program in Switzerland.

Background Since August 2004, HIV patients who encounter -or are at risk of -problems with their antiretroviral treatment (ART) are referred by their physician to a medication adherence program at the community pharmacy of the Department of Ambulatory Care and Community Medicine in Lausanne (Switzerland). The program combines motivational interviewing and electronic drug monitoring. Objective To compare the demographic and clinical characteristics as well as ART of HIV patients referred to the adherence program versus those of the entire HIV population followed in the same infection disease department in the same time frame. Method Retrospective descriptive cross-sectional study. Study time frame was defined according to the period with the highest number of HIV patients visiting the adherence program. Results Subjects included in the adherence program had more often a protease inhibitor-based regimen (64 %; 95 % CI [52-75 %] vs. 37 %) and lower CD4 cell counts (419 (252.0, 521.0); 95 % CI [305-472] vs. 500 (351.0, 720.0)) than the entire HIV population. A majority of women were included in the adherence program (66 %; 95 % CI [54-76 %] vs. 39% in the entire HIV population). Conclusion Subjects referred to the adherence program were different from the entire HIV population and showed worse clinical outcomes and were more often under salvage therapy. More women than men were included. Reasons for such a difference need to be further explored.

Some go without a cigarette: characteristics of cannabis users who have never smoked tobacco.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the prevalence of youth who use cannabis but have never been tobacco smokers and to assess the characteristics that differentiate them from those using both substances or neither substance. DESIGN: School survey. SETTING: Postmandatory schools. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 5263 students (2439 females) aged 16 to 20 years divided into cannabis-only smokers (n = 455), cannabis and tobacco smokers (n = 1703), and abstainers (n = 3105). OUTCOME MEASURES: Regular tobacco and cannabis use; and personal, family, academic, and substance use characteristics. RESULTS: Compared with those using both substances, cannabis-only youth were younger (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 0.82) and more likely to be male (AOR, 2.19), to play sports (AOR, 1.64), to live with both parents (AOR, 1.33), to be students (AOR, 2.56), and to have good grades (AOR, 1.57) and less likely to have been drunk (AOR, 0.55), to have started using cannabis before the age of 15 years (AOR, 0.71), to have used cannabis more than once or twice in the previous month (AOR, 0.64), and to perceive their pubertal timing as early (AOR, 0.59). Compared with abstainers, they were more likely to be male (AOR, 2.10), to have a good relationship with friends (AOR, 1.62), to be sensation seeking (AOR, 1.32), and to practice sports (AOR, 1.37) and less likely to have a good relationship with their parents (AOR, 0.59). They were more likely to attend high school (AOR, 1.43), to skip class (AOR, 2.28), and to have been drunk (AOR, 2.54) or to have used illicit drugs (AOR, 2.28). CONCLUSIONS: Cannabis-only adolescents show better functioning than those who also use tobacco. Compared with abstainers, they are more socially driven and do not seem to have psychosocial problems at a higher rate.

Characteristics of infections associated with external ventricular drains of cerebrospinal fluid.

OBJECTIVES: Manifestations of external ventricular drain (EVD) - associated infections overlap with those of the underlying neurosurgical conditions. We analyzed characteristics of EVD-associated infections. METHODS: We included patients aged ≥18 years with EVD-associated infections from 1997 to 2008, using modified CDC criteria for nosocomial infections. Hospital charts were reviewed retrospectively and the in-hospital outcome was evaluated. RESULTS: Forty-eight patients with EVD-associated infections were included (median age, 52 years, range 20-74 years). The median EVD-indwelling time was 7 days (range, 1-39 days) and EVD-associated infection occurred 6 days after insertion (range, 1-17 days). In 23% of patients, meningitis occurred 1-10 days after EVD removal. Fever >38 °C was present in 79% of patients, but Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores were reduced in only 29%, and headache, vomiting and/or neck stiffness were present in only 31%. The median cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) leukocyte count was higher at onset of EVD-associated infection than at EVD insertion (175 × 10(6)/l versus 46 × 10(6)/l, p = 0.021), but other CSF parameters did not differ significantly. The most commonly implicated organisms were coagulase-negative staphylococci (63%) and Propionibacterium acnes (15%). CONCLUSIONS: Fever and increased CSF leukocytes should raise the suspicion of EVD-associated infection, which may occur up to 10 days after removal of EVD.

Prevalence and characteristics of periodic leg movements during sleep in the general population : the Hypnolaus study

Objective: The aim of this study was to describe the prevalence and characteristics of periodic legs movements of sleep (PLMS) in theadult general population. Methods: Data from 2162 subjects (51.2% women, mean SD age:58, 11 years, range: 40.5-84.4 years) participating in a population-based cohort study (HypnoLaus, Lausanne, Switzerland) wascollected. They completed a series of sleep related questionnaires and underwent polysomnographic recordings at home. PLMS index(PLMSI) was determined according to AASM 2007 criteria. APLMSI>15/h was considered to be of potential clinical significance. Conclusions: PLMS are highly prevalent in the general population. Age, male gender and RLS are independent predictors of a PLMSIhigher than 15/h. Further studies are needed to evaluate the clinical impact of PLMS.

Derivation of soil-specific streaming potential electrical parameters from hydrodynamic characteristics of partially saturated soils

Water movement in unsaturated soils gives rise to measurable electrical potential differences that are related to the flow direction and volumetric fluxes, as well as to the soil properties themselves. Laboratory and field data suggest that these so-called streaming potentials may be several orders of magnitudes larger than theoretical predictions that only consider the influence of the relative permeability and electrical conductivity on the self potential (SP) data. Recent work has improved predictions somewhat by considering how the volumetric excess charge in the pore space scales with the inverse of water saturation. We present a new theoretical approach that uses the flux-averaged excess charge, not the volumetric excess charge, to predict streaming potentials. We present relationships for how this effective excess charge varies with water saturation for typical soil properties using either the water retention or the relative permeability function. We find large differences between soil types and the predictions based on the relative permeability function display the best agreement with field data. The new relationships better explain laboratory data than previous work and allow us to predict the recorded magnitudes of the streaming potentials following a rainfall event in sandy loam, whereas previous models predict values that are three orders of magnitude too small. We suggest that the strong signals in unsaturated media can be used to gain information about fluxes (including very small ones related to film flow), but also to constrain the relative permeability function, the water retention curve, and the relative electrical conductivity function.

Response characteristics of arsenic-sensitive bioreporters expressing the gfp reporter gene

This paper describes the development of an analytical technique for arsenic analyses that is based on genetically-modified bioreporter bacteria bearing a gene encoding for the production of a green fluorescent protein (gfp). Upon exposure to arsenic (in the aqueous form of arsenite), the bioreporter production of the fluorescent reporter molecule is monitored spectroscopically. We compared the response measured as a function of time and concentration by steady-state fluorimetry (SSF) to that measured by epi-fluorescent microscopy (EFM). SSF is a bulk technique; as such it inherently yields less information, whereas EFM monitors the response of many individual cells simultaneously and data can be processed in terms of population averages or subpopulations. For the bioreporter strain used here, as well as for the literature we cite, the two techniques exhibit similar performance characteristics. The results presented here show that the EFM technique can compete with SSF and shows substantially more promise for future improvement; it is a matter of research interest to develop optimized methods of EFM image analysis and statistical data treatment. EFM is a conduit for understanding the dynamics of individual cell response vs. population response, which is not only a matter of research interest, but is also promising in the practical terms of developing micro-scale analysis.

The origin of black colouration in onyx agate from Mali

Natural onyx agate from Mali was investigated in an integrated mineralogical and chemical study to reveal the origin of the unusual black colouration. Detailed studies by polarizing microscopy, scanning electron microscopy and micro-Raman spectroscopy showed that the colour of the dark bands is related to the incorporation of small particles of carbon (low-crystalline graphite) up to 200 nm in size into the cryptocrystalline silica matrix. The dark bands have carbon contents of 1.88 wt.%. The location of the graphite particles is closely related to the primary structural banding in the chalcedony. Cathodoluminescence data shows that the banding is interrupted by small fissures containing secondary hydrothermal quartz. The carbon isotope composition (delta C-13 value of -31.1+/-0.2 parts per thousand) of the carbonaceous material points to an organic precursor. Both the direct hydrothermal formation of graphite from methane under elevated temperature and the graphitization of organic precursors by secondary hydrothermal or metamorphic overprint are possible explanations for the colour of the dark bands. The graphitization of organic precursors results in an intense electron spin resonance line at g(eff) = 2.0026.

Exploration of the contribution of isotope ratio mass spectrometry to the investigation of explosives: A study of black powders and ammonium nitrate fertilisers

The increasing number of bomb attacks involving improvised explosive devices, as well as the nature of the explosives, give rise to concern among safety and law enforcement agencies. The substances used in explosive charges are often everyday products diverted from their primary licit applications. Thus, reducing or limiting their accessibility for prevention purposes is difficult. Ammonium nitrate, employed in agriculture as a fertiliser, is used worldwide in small and large homemade bombs. Black powder, dedicated to hunting and shooting sports, is used illegally as a filling in pipe bombs causing extensive damage. If the main developments of instrumental techniques in explosive analysis have been constantly pushing the limits of detection, their actual contribution to the investigation of explosives in terms of source discrimination is limited. Forensic science has seen the emergence of a new technology, isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS), that shows promising results. Its very first application in forensic science dates back to 1979. Liu et al. analysed cannabis plants coming from different countries [Liu et al. 1979]. This preliminary study highlighted its potential to discriminate specimens coming from different sources. Thirty years later, the keen interest in this new technology has given rise to a flourishing number of publications in forensic science. The countless applications of IRMS to a wide range of materials and substances attest to its success and suggest that the technique is ready to be used in forensic science. However, many studies are characterised by a lack of methodology and fundamental data. They have been undertaken in a top-down approach, applying this technique in an exploratory manner on a restricted sampling. This manner of procedure often does not allow the researcher to answer a number of questions, such as: do the specimens come from the same source, what do we mean by source or what is the inherent variability of a substance? The production of positive results has prevailed at the expense of forensic fundamentals. This research focused on the evaluation of the contribution of the information provided by isotopic analysis to the investigation of explosives. More specifically, this evaluation was based on a sampling of black powders and ammonium nitrate fertilisers coming from known sources. Not only has the methodology developed in this work enabled us to highlight crucial elements inherent to the methods themselves, but also to evaluate both the longitudinal and transversal variabilities of the information. First, the study of the variability of the profile over time was undertaken. Secondly, the variability of black powders and ammonium nitrate fertilisers within the same source and between different sources was evaluated. The contribution of this information to the investigation of explosives was then evaluated and discussed. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Le nombre croissant d'attentats à la bombe impliquant des engins explosifs artisanaux, ainsi que la nature des charges explosives, constituent une préoccupation majeure pour les autorités d'application de la loi et les organismes de sécurité. Les substances utilisées dans les charges explosives sont souvent des produits du quotidien, détournés de leurs applications licites. Par conséquent, réduire ou limiter l'accessibilité de ces produits dans un but de prévention est difficile. Le nitrate d'ammonium, employé dans l'agriculture comme engrais, est utilisé dans des petits et grands engins explosifs artisanaux. La poudre noire, initialement dédiée à la chasse et au tir sportif, est fréquemment utilisée comme charge explosive dans les pipe bombs, qui causent des dommages importants. Si les développements des techniques d'analyse des explosifs n'ont cessé de repousser les limites de détection, leur contribution réelle à l'investigation des explosifs est limitée en termes de discrimination de sources. Une nouvelle technologie qui donne des résultats prometteurs a fait son apparition en science forensique: la spectrométrie de masse à rapport isotopique (IRMS). Sa première application en science forensique remonte à 1979. Liu et al. ont analysé des plants de cannabis provenant de différents pays [Liu et al. 1979]. Cette étude préliminaire, basée sur quelques analyses, a mis en évidence le potentiel de l'IRMS à discriminer des spécimens provenant de sources différentes. Trente ans plus tard, l'intérêt marqué pour cette nouvelle technologie en science forensique se traduit par un nombre florissant de publications. Les innombrables applications de l'IRMS à une large gamme de matériaux et de substances attestent de son succès et suggèrent que la technique est prête à être utilisée en science forensique. Cependant, de nombreuses études sont caractérisées par un manque de méthodologie et de données fondamentales. Elles ont été menées sans définir les hypothèses de recherche et en appliquant cette technique de façon exploratoire sur un échantillonnage restreint. Cette manière de procéder ne permet souvent pas au chercheur de répondre à un certain nombre de questions, tels que: est-ce que deux spécimens proviennent de la même source, qu'entend-on par source ou encore quelle est l'intravariabilité d'une substance? La production de résultats positifs a prévalu au détriment des fondamentaux de science forensique. Cette recherche s'est attachée à évaluer la contribution réelle de l'information isotopique dans les investigations en matière d'explosifs. Plus particulièrement, cette évaluation s'est basée sur un échantillonnage constitué de poudres noires et d'engrais à base de nitrate d'ammonium provenant de sources connues. La méthodologie développée dans ce travail a permis non seulement de mettre en évidence des éléments cruciaux relatifs à la méthode d'analyse elle-même, mais également d'évaluer la variabilité de l'information isotopique d'un point de vue longitudinal et transversal. Dans un premier temps, l'évolution du profil en fonction du temps a été étudiée. Dans un second temps, la variabilité du profil des poudres noires et des engrais à base de nitrate d'ammonium au sein d'une même source et entre différentes sources a été évaluée. La contribution de cette information dans le cadre des investigations d'explosifs a ensuite été discutée et évaluée.

Statistical evaluation of the reproducibility and the influence of paper on the analysis of black gel pen ink using laser desorption ionisation mass spectrometry

Laser desorption ionisation mass spectrometry (LDI-MS) has demonstrated to be an excellent analytical method for the forensic analysis of inks on a questioned document. The ink can be analysed directly on its substrate (paper) and hence offers a fast method of analysis as sample preparation is kept to a minimum and more importantly, damage to the document is minimised. LDI-MS has also previously been reported to provide a high power of discrimination in the statistical comparison of ink samples and has the potential to be introduced as part of routine ink analysis. This paper looks into the methodology further and evaluates statistically the reproducibility and the influence of paper on black gel pen ink LDI-MS spectra; by comparing spectra of three different black gel pen inks on three different paper substrates. Although generally minimal, the influences of sample homogeneity and paper type were found to be sample dependent. This should be taken into account to avoid the risk of false differentiation of black gel pen ink samples. Other statistical approaches such as principal component analysis (PCA) proved to be a good alternative to correlation coefficients for the comparison of whole mass spectra.

Characteristics of victims of violence admitted to a specialized medico-legal unit in Switzerland.

To improve care and services to victims of interpersonal violence, a medico-legal consultation unit was set up at the Lausanne University Hospital, Switzerland in 2006. Adult victims of violence are referred to the consultation by the emergency department. Patients are received by forensic nurses for support, forensic examination and community orientation. A descriptive study of medical reports filled for the 2006 population was conducted in 2007 with the aim to explore characteristics of this specific population and to better orient prevention. Among the 422 patients in 2006, 57% were men and 43% women, with a median age of 31 years old. Violent episodes took place in a public place for 90% of male victims and at home for 70% of female victims. The perpetrators were mostly unknown to male victims (62% of all men victims) and mostly known (usually the partner or a former partner) to female victims (90% of all women victims). For 80% of the women and 47% of the men, the violent event which brought them to the consultation, was not the first one. Because 90% of all patients under study were victimized by men., not only is it necessary to target prevention program to match the potential victims, prevention messages must also focus on potential offenders, especially on young men.