67 resultados para Censored Survival-data
em Université de Lausanne, Switzerland
Resumo:
NovoTTF-100A (TTF) is a portable device delivering low-intensity, intermediate-frequency, alternating electric fields using noninvasive, disposable scalp electrodes. TTF interferes with tumor cell division, and it has been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the treatment of recurrent glioblastoma (rGBM) based on data from a phase III trial. This presentation describes the updated survival data 2 years after completing recruitment. Adults with rGBM (KPS ≥ 70) were randomized (stratified by surgery and center) to either continuous TTF (20-24 h/day, 7 days/week) or efficacious chemotherapy based on best physician choice (BPC). The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS), and secondary endpoints were PFS6, 1-year survival, and QOL. Patients were randomized (28 US and European centers) to either TTF alone (n ¼ 120) or BPC (n ¼ 117). Patient characteristics were balanced, median age was 54 years (range, 23-80 years), and median KPS was 80 (range, 50-100). One quarter of the patients had debulking surgery, and over half of the patients were at their second or later recurrence. OS in the intent-to-treat (ITT) population was equivalent in TTF versus BPC patients (median OS, 6.6vs. 6.0 months; n ¼ 237; p ¼ 0.26; HR ¼ 0.86). With a median follow-up of 33.6 months, long-term survival in the TTF group was higher than that in the BPC group at 2, 3, and 4 years of follow-up (9.3% vs. 6.6%; 8.4% vs. 1.4%; 8.4% vs. 0.0%, respectively). Analysis of patients who received at least one treatment course demonstrated a survival benefit for TTF patients compared to BPC patients (median OS, 7.8 vs. 6.0 months; n ¼ 93 vs. n ¼ 117; p ¼ 0.012; HR ¼ 0.69). In this group, 1-year survival was 28% vs. 20%, and PFS6 was 26.2% vs. 15.2% (p ¼ 0.034). TTF, a noninvasive, novel cancer treatment modality shows significant therapeutic efficacy with promising long-term survival results. The impact of TTF was more pronounced when comparing only patients who received the minimal treatment course. A large-scale phase III trial in newly diagnosed GBM is ongoing.
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Objective: This analysis was performed to assess whether antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) modulate the effectiveness of temozolomide radiochemotherapy in patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma.Methods: The European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) 26981-22981/National Cancer Institute of Canada (NCIC) CE.3 clinical trial database of radiotherapy (RT) with or without temozolomide (TMZ) for newly diagnosed glioblastoma was examined to assess the impact of the interaction between AED use and chemoradiotherapy on survival. Data were adjusted for known prognostic factors.Results: When treatment began, 175 patients (30.5%) were AED-free, 277 (48.3%) were taking any enzyme-inducing AED (EIAED) and 135 (23.4%) were taking any non-EIAED. Patients receiving valproic acid (VPA) only had more grade 3/4 thrombopenia and leukopenia than patients without an AED or patients taking an EIAED only. The overall survival (OS) of patients who were receiving an AED at baseline vs not receiving any AED was similar. Patients receiving VPA alone (97 [16.9%]) appeared to derive more survival benefit from TMZ/RT (hazard ratio [HR] 0.39, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.24-0.63) than patients receiving an EIAED only (252 [44%]) (HR 0.69, 95% CI 0.53-0.90) or patients not receiving any AED (HR 0.67, 95% CI 0.49-0.93). Conclusions: VPA may be preferred over an EIAED in patients with glioblastoma who require an AED during TMZ-based chemoradiotherapy. Future studies are needed to determine whether VPA increases TMZ bioavailability or acts as an inhibitor of histone deacetylases and thereby sensitizes for radiochemotherapy in vivo.
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PURPOSE: To assess the failure pattern observed after (18)F fluoroethyltyrosine (FET) planning after chemo- and radiotherapy (RT) for high-grade glioma. METHODS: All patients underwent prospectively RT planning using morphological gross tumour volumes (GTVs) and biological tumour volumes (BTVs). The post-treatment recurrence tumour volumes (RTVs) of 10 patients were transferred on their CT planning. First, failure patterns were defined in terms of percentage of RTV located outside the GTV and BTV. Second, the location of the RTV with respect to the delivered dose distribution was assessed using the RTV's DVHs. Recurrences with >95% of their volume within 95% isodose line were considered as central recurrences. Finally, the relationship between survival and GTV/BTV mismatches was assessed. RESULTS: The median percentages of RTV outside the GTV and BTV were 41.8% (range, 10.5-92.4) and 62.8% (range, 34.2-81.1), respectively. The majority of recurrences (90%) were centrally located. Using a composite target volume planning formalism, the degree of GTV and BTV mismatch did not correlate with survivorship. CONCLUSIONS: The observed failure pattern after FET-PET planning and chemo-RT is primarily central. The target mismatch-survival data suggest that using FET-PET planning may counteract the possibility of BTV-related progression, which may have a detrimental effect on survival.
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Incidence registration and survival data for non-melanocytic skin neoplasms and cutaneous melanoma have been abstracted from the population-based system of the Cancer Registry of the Swiss Canton of Vaud, which has been operating in a particularly favourable environment, since the large majority of cutaneous lesions resected in the area are examined by a pathologist. Among the 5,712 cases registered, 66.7% were basal-cell carcinomas, 20.6% squamous-cell cancers, 9.3% cutaneous melanomas and 3.4% other miscellaneous histological types. The distribution by histological type did not differ appreciably in the 2 sexes, but there were marked inter-sex differences as regards anatomical site. In both sexes, head and neck was by far the commonest localization for non-melanomatous neoplasms (69 to 81% of all incident cases), followed by trunk for basal-cell cancers (18% in males, 15% in females) and upper limb for squamous-cell (10% in males, 17% in females). The distribution of skin melanomas differed considerably between the 2 sexes, by far the commonest site being the trunk for males (45% of cases) and lower limbs for females (40%), followed by head and neck (22% in both sexes). Incidence rates for both basal- and squamous-cell cancers increased with age, and rates were higher in males for each localization except the lower limb. In contrast, incidence for melanoma was higher in females, and incidence rates did not increase with age above 55 years for all sites except head and neck. This can be interpreted in terms of cohort effect, since mortality from melanoma has substantially increased in Switzerland across subsequent birth cohorts. Although this study is essentially descriptive, accurate inspection of these data provides some support for the major aetiological hypotheses of skin carcinogenesis, i.e., the observation that the large majority of basal- and squamous-cell cancers arise on the head and neck confirms the importance of long-term ultraviolet exposure; the relative excess of squamous-cell as compared to basal-cell neoplasms on the upper limb may suggest the role of exposure to other (chemical) carcinogens; and the proportional excess of melanomas on the trunk in males and lower limb in females further indicates that intermittent exposure to sunlight is probably the relevant aetiologic factor for melanocytic skin neoplasms.
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OBJECTIVES: To determine clinical and ultrasonographic predictors of joint replacement surgery across Europe in primary osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee. METHODS: This was a 3-year prospective study of a painful OA knee cohort (from a EULAR-sponsored, multicentre study). All subjects had clinical evaluation, radiographs and ultrasonography (US) at study entry. The rate of knee replacement surgery over the 3-year follow-up period was determined using Kaplan-Meier survival data analyses. Predictive factors for joint replacement were identified by univariate log-rank test then multivariate analysis using a Cox proportional-hazards regression model. Potential baseline predictors included demographic, clinical, radiographic and US features. RESULTS: Of the 600 original patients, 531 (88.5%), mean age 67+/-10 years, mean disease duration 6.1+/-6.9 years, had follow-up data and were analysed. During follow-up (median 3 years; range 0-4 years), knee replacement was done or required for 94 patients (estimated event rate of 17.7%). In the multivariate analysis, predictors of joint replacement were as follows: Kellgren and Lawrence radiographic grade (grade > or =III vs <III, hazards ratio (HR) = 4.08 (95% CI 2.34 to 7.12), p<0.0001); ultrasonographic knee effusion (> or =4 mm vs <4 mm) (HR = 2.63 (95% CI 1.70 to 4.06), p<0.0001); knee pain intensity on a 0-100 mm visual analogue scale (> or =60 vs <60) (HR = 1.81 (95% CI 1.15 to 2.83), p=0.01) and disease duration (> or =5 years vs <5 years) (HR=1.63 (95% CI 1.08 to 2.47), p=0.02). Clinically detected effusion and US synovitis were not associated with joint replacement in the univariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Longitudinal evaluation of this OA cohort demonstrated significant progression to joint replacement. In addition to severity of radiographic damage and pain, US-detected effusion was a predictor of subsequent joint replacement.
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A recent randomized EORTC phase III trial, comparing two doses of imatinib in patients with advanced gastrointestinal stromal tumours (GISTs), reported dose dependency for progression-free survival. The current analysis of that study aimed to assess if tumour mutational status correlates with clinical response to imatinib. Pre-treatment samples of GISTs from 377 patients enrolled in phase III study were analyzed for mutations of KIT or PDGFRA by combination of D-HPLC and direct sequencing of tumour genomic DNA. Mutation types were correlated with patients' survival data. The presence of exon 9-activating mutations in KIT was the strongest adverse prognostic factor for response to imatinib, increasing the relative risk of progression by 171% (P<0.0001) and the relative risk of death by 190% (P<0.0001) when compared with KIT exon 11 mutants. Similarly, the relative risk of progression was increased by 108% (P<0.0001) and the relative risk of death by 76% (P=0.028) in patients without detectable KIT or PDGFRA mutations. In patients whose tumours expressed an exon 9 KIT oncoprotein, treatment with the high-dose regimen resulted in a significantly superior progression-free survival (P=0.0013), with a reduction of the relative risk of 61%. We conclude that tumour genotype is of major prognostic significance for progression-free survival and overall survival in patients treated with imatinib for advanced GISTs. Our findings suggest the need for differential treatment of patients with GISTs, with KIT exon 9 mutant patients benefiting the most from the 800 mg daily dose of the drug.
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The recognition that colorectal cancer (CRC) is a heterogeneous disease in terms of clinical behaviour and response to therapy translates into an urgent need for robust molecular disease subclassifiers that can explain this heterogeneity beyond current parameters (MSI, KRAS, BRAF). Attempts to fill this gap are emerging. The Cancer Genome Atlas (TGCA) reported two main CRC groups, based on the incidence and spectrum of mutated genes, and another paper reported an EMT expression signature defined subgroup. We performed a prior free analysis of CRC heterogeneity on 1113 CRC gene expression profiles and confronted our findings to established molecular determinants and clinical, histopathological and survival data. Unsupervised clustering based on gene modules allowed us to distinguish at least five different gene expression CRC subtypes, which we call surface crypt-like, lower crypt-like, CIMP-H-like, mesenchymal and mixed. A gene set enrichment analysis combined with literature search of gene module members identified distinct biological motifs in different subtypes. The subtypes, which were not derived based on outcome, nonetheless showed differences in prognosis. Known gene copy number variations and mutations in key cancer-associated genes differed between subtypes, but the subtypes provided molecular information beyond that contained in these variables. Morphological features significantly differed between subtypes. The objective existence of the subtypes and their clinical and molecular characteristics were validated in an independent set of 720 CRC expression profiles. Our subtypes provide a novel perspective on the heterogeneity of CRC. The proposed subtypes should be further explored retrospectively on existing clinical trial datasets and, when sufficiently robust, be prospectively assessed for clinical relevance in terms of prognosis and treatment response predictive capacity. Original microarray data were uploaded to the ArrayExpress database (http://www.ebi.ac.uk/arrayexpress/) under Accession Nos E-MTAB-990 and E-MTAB-1026. © 2013 Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics. Journal of Pathology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND: Despite advances in treatment, survival of patients with GBM over 60 years is still often less than 1 year. In the perspective of a short expected survival, the quality of the remaining life and the effects of therapy on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) should be given special emphasis when recommending treatment for the individual patients. Several studies have focused on survival of the elderly, but few data are available on HRQoL for different treatments. In a randomized trial, we compared survival and HRQoL for 3 treatment options, 6 weeks of RT, vs hypofractionated RT, or chemotherapy with TMZ. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Newly diagnosed GBM patients, age ≥60 years with PS 0-2, were randomized to either standard RT (60 Gy in 2-Gy fractions over 6 weeks), hypofractionated RT (34 Gy in 3.4-Gy fractions over 2 weeks), or 6 cycles of chemotherapy with TMZ (200 mg/m2 day 1-5 every 28 days). QoL was determined by the EORTC QLQ 30 questionnaire and the Brain Cancer Module at inclusion, before start of therapy, at 6 weeks, 3 months, and 6 months after start of treatment. Patients were followed until death. The primary study endpoint was overall survival (OS) and secondary objectives were HRQoL, neurologic symptom control, and safety. RESULTS: A total of 342 patients were included and 292 patients were randomized between the 3 treatment options and 50 patients between hypofractionated RT and TMZ. Median age was 70 years (range 60-92) with 58% being male. Performance status was 0-1 for 75% of patients and 73% had undergone surgical resection. CONCLUSION: The results from the HRQoL analysis of this trial will be presented together with survival data at the upcoming EANO meeting.
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BACKGROUND: Patients with BM rarely survive .6 months and are commonly excluded from clinical trials. We aimed at improving outcome by exploring 2 combined modality regimens with at the time novel agents for which single-agent activity had been shown. METHODS: NSCLC patients with multiple BM were randomized to WBRT (10 × 3 Gy) and either GFT 250 mg p.o. daily or TMZ 75 mg/m2 p.o. daily ×21/28 days, starting on Day 1 of RT and to be continued until PD. Primary endpoint was overall survival, a Simon's optimal 2-stage design was based on assumptions for the 3-month survival rate. Cognitive functioning and quality of life were also evaluated. RESULTS: Fifty-nine patients (36 M, 23 F; 9 after prior chemo) were included. Median age was 61 years (range 46-82), WHO PS was 0 in 18 patients, 1 in 31 patients, and 2 in 10 patients. All but 1 patients had extracranial disease; 33 of 43 (TMZ) and 15 of 16 (GFT) had adenocarcinoma histology. GFT arm was closed early after stage 1 analysis when the prespecified 3-mo survival rate threshold (66%) was not reached, causes of death were not GFT related. Main causes of death were PD in the CNS 24%, systemic 41%, both 8%, and toxicity 10% [intestinal perforation (2 patients), pneumonia (2), pulmonary emboli (1), pneumonitis NOS (1), seizure (1)]. We summarize here other patients' characteristics for the 2 trial arms: TMZ (n ¼ 43)/GFT (n ¼ 16); median treatment duration: 1.6 /1.8 mo; Grade 3-4 toxicity: lymphopenia 5 patients (12%)/0; fatigue 8 patients (19%)/2 patients (13%). Survival data for TMZ/GFT arms: 3-month survival rate: 58.1% (95% CI 42.1-73)/62.5% (95% CI 35- 85); median OS: 4.9 months (95% CI 2.5-5.6)/6.3 months (95% CI 2.2- 14.6); median PFS: 1.8 months (95% CI 1.5-1.8)/1.8 (95% CI 1.1-3.9); median time to neurol. progr.: 8.0 months (95% CI 2.2-X)/4.8 (95% CI 3.9-10.5). In a model to predict survival time including the variables' age, PS, number of BM, global QL, total MMSE score, and subjective cognitive function, none of the variables accounted for a significant improvement in survival time. CONCLUSIONS: The combinations of WBRT with GFT or TMZ were feasible. However, in this unselected patient population, survival remains poor and a high rate of complication was observed. Four patients died as a result of high-dose corticosteroids. Preliminary evaluation of cognitive function andQL failed to show significant improvement. Indications and patient selection for palliative treatment should be revisited and careful monitoring and supportive care is required. Research and progress for this frequent clinical situation is urgently needed. Trial partly supported by AstraZeneca (Switzerland), Essex Chemie (Switzerland) and Swiss Federal Government.
Resumo:
Transmission of drug-resistant pathogens presents an almost-universal challenge for fighting infectious diseases. Transmitted drug resistance mutations (TDRM) can persist in the absence of drugs for considerable time. It is generally believed that differential TDRM-persistence is caused, at least partially, by variations in TDRM-fitness-costs. However, in vivo epidemiological evidence for the impact of fitness costs on TDRM-persistence is rare. Here, we studied the persistence of TDRM in HIV-1 using longitudinally-sampled nucleotide sequences from the Swiss-HIV-Cohort-Study (SHCS). All treatment-naïve individuals with TDRM at baseline were included. Persistence of TDRM was quantified via reversion rates (RR) determined with interval-censored survival models. Fitness costs of TDRM were estimated in the genetic background in which they occurred using a previously published and validated machine-learning algorithm (based on in vitro replicative capacities) and were included in the survival models as explanatory variables. In 857 sequential samples from 168 treatment-naïve patients, 17 TDRM were analyzed. RR varied substantially and ranged from 174.0/100-person-years;CI=[51.4, 588.8] (for 184V) to 2.7/100-person-years;[0.7, 10.9] (for 215D). RR increased significantly with fitness cost (increase by 1.6[1.3,2.0] per standard deviation of fitness costs). When subdividing fitness costs into the average fitness cost of a given mutation and the deviation from the average fitness cost of a mutation in a given genetic background, we found that both components were significantly associated with reversion-rates. Our results show that the substantial variations of TDRM persistence in the absence of drugs are associated with fitness-cost differences both among mutations and among different genetic backgrounds for the same mutation.
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This is one of the few studies that have explored the value of baseline symptoms and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in predicting survival in brain cancer patients. Baseline HRQOL scores (from the EORTC QLQ-C30 and the Brain Cancer Module (BN 20)) were examined in 490 newly diagnosed glioblastoma cancer patients for the relationship with overall survival by using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Refined techniques as the bootstrap re-sampling procedure and the computation of C-indexes and R(2)-coefficients were used to try and validate the model. Classical analysis controlled for major clinical prognostic factors selected cognitive functioning (P=0.0001), global health status (P=0.0055) and social functioning (P<0.0001) as statistically significant prognostic factors of survival. However, several issues question the validity of these findings. C-indexes and R(2)-coefficients, which are measures of the predictive ability of the models, did not exhibit major improvements when adding selected or all HRQOL scores to clinical factors. While classical techniques lead to positive results, more refined analyses suggest that baseline HRQOL scores add relatively little to clinical factors to predict survival. These results may have implications for future use of HRQOL as a prognostic factor in cancer patients.
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We consider the problem of estimating the mean hospital cost of stays of a class of patients (e.g., a diagnosis-related group) as a function of patient characteristics. The statistical analysis is complicated by the asymmetry of the cost distribution, the possibility of censoring on the cost variable, and the occurrence of outliers. These problems have often been treated separately in the literature, and a method offering a joint solution to all of them is still missing. Indirect procedures have been proposed, combining an estimate of the duration distribution with an estimate of the conditional cost for a given duration. We propose a parametric version of this approach, allowing for asymmetry and censoring in the cost distribution and providing a mean cost estimator that is robust in the presence of extreme values. In addition, the new method takes covariate information into account.
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Background: Mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) is a rare subtype (3-9%) of Non Hodgkin Lymphoma (NHL) with a relatively poor prognosis (5-year survival < 40%). Although consolidation of first remission with autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) is regarded as "golden standard", less than half of the patients may be subjected to this intensive treatment due to advanced age and co-morbidities. Standard-dose non-myeloablative radioimmunotherapy (RIT) seems to be a very efficient approach for treatment of certain NHL. However, there are almost no data available on the efficacy and safety of RIT in MCL. Methods and Patients: In the RIT-Network, a web-based international registry collecting real observational data from RIT-treated patients, 115 MCL patients treated with ibritumomab tiuxetan were recorded. Most of the patients were elderly males with advanced stage of the disease: median age - 63 (range 31-78); males - 70.4%, stage III/IV - 92%. RIT (i.e. application of ibritumomab tiuxetan) was a part of the first line therapy in 48 pts. (43%). Further 38 pts. (33%) received ibritumomab tiuxetan after two previous chemotherapy regimens, and 33 pts. (24%) after completing 3-8 lines. In 75 cases RIT was applied as a consolidation of chemotherapy induced response; the rest of the patients received ibritumomab tiuxetan because of relapse/refractory disease. At the moment follow up data are available for 74 MCL patients. Results: After RIT the patients achieved high response rate: CR 60.8%, PR 25.7%, and SD 2.7%. Only 10.8% of the patients progressed. For survival analysis many data had to be censored since the documentation had not been completed yet. The projected 3-year overall survival (OAS, fig.1 - image 001.gif) after radioimmunotherapy was 72% for pts. subjected to RIT consolidation versus 29% for those treated in relapse/refractory disease (p=0.03). RIT was feasible for almost all patients; only 3 procedure-related deaths were reported in the whole group. The main adverse event was hematological toxicity (grade III/IV cytopenias) showing a median time of recovery of Hb, WBC and Plt of 45, 40 and 38 days respectively. Conclusion: Standard-dose non-myeloablative RIT is a feasible and safe treatment modality, even for elderly MCL pts. Consolidation radioimmunotherapy with ibritumomab tiuxetan may prolong survival of patients who achieved clinical response after chemotherapy. Therefore, this consolidation approach should be considered as a treatment strategy for those, who are not eligible for ASCT. RIT also has a potential role as a palliation therapy in relapsing/resistant cases.
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BACKGROUND: Worldwide data for cancer survival are scarce. We aimed to initiate worldwide surveillance of cancer survival by central analysis of population-based registry data, as a metric of the effectiveness of health systems, and to inform global policy on cancer control. METHODS: Individual tumour records were submitted by 279 population-based cancer registries in 67 countries for 25·7 million adults (age 15-99 years) and 75 000 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer during 1995-2009 and followed up to Dec 31, 2009, or later. We looked at cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, liver, lung, breast (women), cervix, ovary, and prostate in adults, and adult and childhood leukaemia. Standardised quality control procedures were applied; errors were corrected by the registry concerned. We estimated 5-year net survival, adjusted for background mortality in every country or region by age (single year), sex, and calendar year, and by race or ethnic origin in some countries. Estimates were age-standardised with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights. FINDINGS: 5-year survival from colon, rectal, and breast cancers has increased steadily in most developed countries. For patients diagnosed during 2005-09, survival for colon and rectal cancer reached 60% or more in 22 countries around the world; for breast cancer, 5-year survival rose to 85% or higher in 17 countries worldwide. Liver and lung cancer remain lethal in all nations: for both cancers, 5-year survival is below 20% everywhere in Europe, in the range 15-19% in North America, and as low as 7-9% in Mongolia and Thailand. Striking rises in 5-year survival from prostate cancer have occurred in many countries: survival rose by 10-20% between 1995-99 and 2005-09 in 22 countries in South America, Asia, and Europe, but survival still varies widely around the world, from less than 60% in Bulgaria and Thailand to 95% or more in Brazil, Puerto Rico, and the USA. For cervical cancer, national estimates of 5-year survival range from less than 50% to more than 70%; regional variations are much wider, and improvements between 1995-99 and 2005-09 have generally been slight. For women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in 2005-09, 5-year survival was 40% or higher only in Ecuador, the USA, and 17 countries in Asia and Europe. 5-year survival for stomach cancer in 2005-09 was high (54-58%) in Japan and South Korea, compared with less than 40% in other countries. By contrast, 5-year survival from adult leukaemia in Japan and South Korea (18-23%) is lower than in most other countries. 5-year survival from childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia is less than 60% in several countries, but as high as 90% in Canada and four European countries, which suggests major deficiencies in the management of a largely curable disease. INTERPRETATION: International comparison of survival trends reveals very wide differences that are likely to be attributable to differences in access to early diagnosis and optimum treatment. Continuous worldwide surveillance of cancer survival should become an indispensable source of information for cancer patients and researchers and a stimulus for politicians to improve health policy and health-care systems. FUNDING: Canadian Partnership Against Cancer (Toronto, Canada), Cancer Focus Northern Ireland (Belfast, UK), Cancer Institute New South Wales (Sydney, Australia), Cancer Research UK (London, UK), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Atlanta, GA, USA), Swiss Re (London, UK), Swiss Cancer Research foundation (Bern, Switzerland), Swiss Cancer League (Bern, Switzerland), and University of Kentucky (Lexington, KY, USA).
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1. Model-based approaches have been used increasingly in conservation biology over recent years. Species presence data used for predictive species distribution modelling are abundant in natural history collections, whereas reliable absence data are sparse, most notably for vagrant species such as butterflies and snakes. As predictive methods such as generalized linear models (GLM) require absence data, various strategies have been proposed to select pseudo-absence data. However, only a few studies exist that compare different approaches to generating these pseudo-absence data. 2. Natural history collection data are usually available for long periods of time (decades or even centuries), thus allowing historical considerations. However, this historical dimension has rarely been assessed in studies of species distribution, although there is great potential for understanding current patterns, i.e. the past is the key to the present. 3. We used GLM to model the distributions of three 'target' butterfly species, Melitaea didyma, Coenonympha tullia and Maculinea teleius, in Switzerland. We developed and compared four strategies for defining pools of pseudo-absence data and applied them to natural history collection data from the last 10, 30 and 100 years. Pools included: (i) sites without target species records; (ii) sites where butterfly species other than the target species were present; (iii) sites without butterfly species but with habitat characteristics similar to those required by the target species; and (iv) a combination of the second and third strategies. Models were evaluated and compared by the total deviance explained, the maximized Kappa and the area under the curve (AUC). 4. Among the four strategies, model performance was best for strategy 3. Contrary to expectations, strategy 2 resulted in even lower model performance compared with models with pseudo-absence data simulated totally at random (strategy 1). 5. Independent of the strategy model, performance was enhanced when sites with historical species presence data were not considered as pseudo-absence data. Therefore, the combination of strategy 3 with species records from the last 100 years achieved the highest model performance. 6. Synthesis and applications. The protection of suitable habitat for species survival or reintroduction in rapidly changing landscapes is a high priority among conservationists. Model-based approaches offer planning authorities the possibility of delimiting priority areas for species detection or habitat protection. The performance of these models can be enhanced by fitting them with pseudo-absence data relying on large archives of natural history collection species presence data rather than using randomly sampled pseudo-absence data.