Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science

Continuing developments in science and technology mean that the amounts of information forensic scientists are able to provide for criminal investigations is ever increasing. The commensurate increase in complexity creates difficulties for scientists and lawyers with regard to evaluation and interpretation, notably with respect to issues of inference and decision. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, and specifically Bayesian networks, provides powerful methods to deal with this complexity. Extensions of these methods to elements of decision theory provide further support and assistance to the judicial system. Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian decision networks for the evaluation and interpretation of scientific findings in forensic science, and for the support of decision-makers in their scientific and legal tasks. Includes self-contained introductions to probability and decision theory. Develops the characteristics of Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks and their extension to decision models. Features implementation of the methodology with reference to commercial and academically available software. Presents standard networks and their extensions that can be easily implemented and that can assist in the reader's own analysis of real cases. Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning. Contains a method for the construction of coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of scientific findings and for decisions based on them. Is written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists and lawyers with minimal mathematical background. Includes a foreword by Ian Evett. The clear and accessible style of this second edition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, applied statisticians and graduate students wishing to evaluate forensic findings from the perspective of probability and decision analysis. It will also appeal to lawyers and other scientists and professionals interested in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings, including decision making based on scientific information.

Decision-theoretic analysis of forensic sampling criteria using Bayesian decision networks

Sampling issues represent a topic of ongoing interest to the forensic science community essentially because of their crucial role in laboratory planning and working protocols. For this purpose, forensic literature described thorough (Bayesian) probabilistic sampling approaches. These are now widely implemented in practice. They allow, for instance, to obtain probability statements that parameters of interest (e.g., the proportion of a seizure of items that present particular features, such as an illegal substance) satisfy particular criteria (e.g., a threshold or an otherwise limiting value). Currently, there are many approaches that allow one to derive probability statements relating to a population proportion, but questions on how a forensic decision maker - typically a client of a forensic examination or a scientist acting on behalf of a client - ought actually to decide about a proportion or a sample size, remained largely unexplored to date. The research presented here intends to address methodology from decision theory that may help to cope usefully with the wide range of sampling issues typically encountered in forensic science applications. The procedures explored in this paper enable scientists to address a variety of concepts such as the (net) value of sample information, the (expected) value of sample information or the (expected) decision loss. All of these aspects directly relate to questions that are regularly encountered in casework. Besides probability theory and Bayesian inference, the proposed approach requires some additional elements from decision theory that may increase the efforts needed for practical implementation. In view of this challenge, the present paper will emphasise the merits of graphical modelling concepts, such as decision trees and Bayesian decision networks. These can support forensic scientists in applying the methodology in practice. How this may be achieved is illustrated with several examples. The graphical devices invoked here also serve the purpose of supporting the discussion of the similarities, differences and complementary aspects of existing Bayesian probabilistic sampling criteria and the decision-theoretic approach proposed throughout this paper.

Structural Analysis of Networks

Network analysis naturally relies on graph theory and, more particularly, on the use of node and edge metrics to identify the salient properties in graphs. When building visual maps of networks, these metrics are turned into useful visual cues or are used interactively to filter out parts of a graph while querying it, for instance. Over the years, analysts from different application domains have designed metrics to serve specific needs. Network science is an inherently cross-disciplinary field, which leads to the publication of metrics with similar goals; different names and descriptions of their analytics often mask the similarity between two metrics that originated in different fields. Here, we study a set of graph metrics and compare their relative values and behaviors in an effort to survey their potential contributions to the spatial analysis of networks.

Dynamic simulation of regulatory networks using SQUAD.

BACKGROUND: The ambition of most molecular biologists is the understanding of the intricate network of molecular interactions that control biological systems. As scientists uncover the components and the connectivity of these networks, it becomes possible to study their dynamical behavior as a whole and discover what is the specific role of each of their components. Since the behavior of a network is by no means intuitive, it becomes necessary to use computational models to understand its behavior and to be able to make predictions about it. Unfortunately, most current computational models describe small networks due to the scarcity of kinetic data available. To overcome this problem, we previously published a methodology to convert a signaling network into a dynamical system, even in the total absence of kinetic information. In this paper we present a software implementation of such methodology. RESULTS: We developed SQUAD, a software for the dynamic simulation of signaling networks using the standardized qualitative dynamical systems approach. SQUAD converts the network into a discrete dynamical system, and it uses a binary decision diagram algorithm to identify all the steady states of the system. Then, the software creates a continuous dynamical system and localizes its steady states which are located near the steady states of the discrete system. The software permits to make simulations on the continuous system, allowing for the modification of several parameters. Importantly, SQUAD includes a framework for perturbing networks in a manner similar to what is performed in experimental laboratory protocols, for example by activating receptors or knocking out molecular components. Using this software we have been able to successfully reproduce the behavior of the regulatory network implicated in T-helper cell differentiation. CONCLUSION: The simulation of regulatory networks aims at predicting the behavior of a whole system when subject to stimuli, such as drugs, or determine the role of specific components within the network. The predictions can then be used to interpret and/or drive laboratory experiments. SQUAD provides a user-friendly graphical interface, accessible to both computational and experimental biologists for the fast qualitative simulation of large regulatory networks for which kinetic data is not necessarily available.

Properties of functional brain networks correlate with frequency of psychogenic non-epileptic seizures.

Abnormalities in the topology of brain networks may be an important feature and etiological factor for psychogenic non-epileptic seizures (PNES). To explore this possibility, we applied a graph theoretical approach to functional networks based on resting state EEGs from 13 PNES patients and 13 age- and gender-matched controls. The networks were extracted from Laplacian-transformed time-series by a cross-correlation method. PNES patients showed close to normal local and global connectivity and small-world structure, estimated with clustering coefficient, modularity, global efficiency, and small-worldness (SW) metrics, respectively. Yet the number of PNES attacks per month correlated with a weakness of local connectedness and a skewed balance between local and global connectedness quantified with SW, all in EEG alpha band. In beta band, patients demonstrated above-normal resiliency, measured with assortativity coefficient, which also correlated with the frequency of PNES attacks. This interictal EEG phenotype may help improve differentiation between PNES and epilepsy. The results also suggest that local connectivity could be a target for therapeutic interventions in PNES. Selective modulation (strengthening) of local connectivity might improve the skewed balance between local and global connectivity and so prevent PNES events.

Nuclear receptor Rev-erb alpha (Nr1d1) functions in concert with Nr2e3 to regulate transcriptional networks in the retina.

The majority of diseases in the retina are caused by genetic mutations affecting the development and function of photoreceptor cells. The transcriptional networks directing these processes are regulated by genes such as nuclear hormone receptors. The nuclear hormone receptor gene Rev-erb alpha/Nr1d1 has been widely studied for its role in the circadian cycle and cell metabolism, however its role in the retina is unknown. In order to understand the role of Rev-erb alpha/Nr1d1 in the retina, we evaluated the effects of loss of Nr1d1 to the developing retina and its co-regulation with the photoreceptor-specific nuclear receptor gene Nr2e3 in the developing and mature retina. Knock-down of Nr1d1 expression in the developing retina results in pan-retinal spotting and reduced retinal function by electroretinogram. Our studies show that NR1D1 protein is co-expressed with NR2E3 in the outer neuroblastic layer of the developing mouse retina. In the adult retina, NR1D1 is expressed in the ganglion cell layer and is co-expressed with NR2E3 in the outer nuclear layer, within rods and cones. Several genes co-targeted by NR2E3 and NR1D1 were identified that include: Nr2c1, Recoverin, Rgr, Rarres2, Pde8a, and Nupr1. We examined the cyclic expression of Nr1d1 and Nr2e3 over a twenty-four hour period and observed that both nuclear receptors cycle in a similar manner. Taken together, these studies reveal a novel role for Nr1d1, in conjunction with its cofactor Nr2e3, in regulating transcriptional networks critical for photoreceptor development and function.

Using active learning for monitoring networks design: The example of wind power plants sites evaluation

Locating new wind farms is of crucial importance for energy policies of the next decade. To select the new location, an accurate picture of the wind fields is necessary. However, characterizing wind fields is a difficult task, since the phenomenon is highly nonlinear and related to complex topographical features. In this paper, we propose both a nonparametric model to estimate wind speed at different time instants and a procedure to discover underrepresented topographic conditions, where new measuring stations could be added. Compared to space filling techniques, this last approach privileges optimization of the output space, thus locating new potential measuring sites through the uncertainty of the model itself.

Modeling resting-state functional networks when the cortex falls asleep: local and global changes.

The transition from wakefulness to sleep represents the most conspicuous change in behavior and the level of consciousness occurring in the healthy brain. It is accompanied by similarly conspicuous changes in neural dynamics, traditionally exemplified by the change from "desynchronized" electroencephalogram activity in wake to globally synchronized slow wave activity of early sleep. However, unit and local field recordings indicate that the transition is more gradual than it might appear: On one hand, local slow waves already appear during wake; on the other hand, slow sleep waves are only rarely global. Studies with functional magnetic resonance imaging also reveal changes in resting-state functional connectivity (FC) between wake and slow wave sleep. However, it remains unclear how resting-state networks may change during this transition period. Here, we employ large-scale modeling of the human cortico-cortical anatomical connectivity to evaluate changes in resting-state FC when the model "falls asleep" due to the progressive decrease in arousal-promoting neuromodulation. When cholinergic neuromodulation is parametrically decreased, local slow waves appear, while the overall organization of resting-state networks does not change. Furthermore, we show that these local slow waves are structured macroscopically in networks that resemble the resting-state networks. In contrast, when the neuromodulator decrease further to very low levels, slow waves become global and resting-state networks merge into a single undifferentiated, broadly synchronized network.

HIV-1 drug resistance transmission networks in southwest Switzerland.

To determine viral subtypes and resistance mutations to antiretroviral treatment (ART) in untreated HIV-1 acutely infected subjects from Southwest Switzerland. Clinical samples were obtained from the HIV primary infection cohort from Lausanne. Briefly, pol gene was amplified by nested PCR and sequenced to generate a 1?kb sequence spanning protease and reverse transcriptase key protein regions. Nucleotide sequences were used to assess viral genotype and ART resistance mutations. Blood specimens and medical information were obtained from 30 patients. Main viral subtypes corresponded to clade B, CRF02_AG, and F1. Resistant mutations to PIs consisted of L10V and accessory mutations 16E and 60E present in all F1 clades. The NNRTI major resistant mutation 103N was detected in all F1 viruses and in other 2 clades. Additionally, we identified F1 sequences from other 6 HIV infected and untreated individuals from Southwest Switzerland, harboring nucleotide motifs and resistance mutations to ART as observed in the F1 strains from the cohort. These data reveal a high transmission rate (16.6%) for NNRTI resistant mutation 103N in a cohort of HIV acute infection. Three of the 5 resistant strains were F1 clades closely related to other F1 isolates from HIV-1 infection untreated patients also coming from Southwest Switzerland. Overall, we provide strong evidence towards an HIV-1 resistant transmission network in Southwest Switzerland. These findings have relevant implications for the local molecular mapping of HIV-1 and future ART surveillance studies in the region.

Evidence for transcript networks composed of chimeric RNAs in human cells.

The classic organization of a gene structure has followed the Jacob and Monod bacterial gene model proposed more than 50 years ago. Since then, empirical determinations of the complexity of the transcriptomes found in yeast to human has blurred the definition and physical boundaries of genes. Using multiple analysis approaches we have characterized individual gene boundaries mapping on human chromosomes 21 and 22. Analyses of the locations of the 5' and 3' transcriptional termini of 492 protein coding genes revealed that for 85% of these genes the boundaries extend beyond the current annotated termini, most often connecting with exons of transcripts from other well annotated genes. The biological and evolutionary importance of these chimeric transcripts is underscored by (1) the non-random interconnections of genes involved, (2) the greater phylogenetic depth of the genes involved in many chimeric interactions, (3) the coordination of the expression of connected genes and (4) the close in vivo and three dimensional proximity of the genomic regions being transcribed and contributing to parts of the chimeric RNAs. The non-random nature of the connection of the genes involved suggest that chimeric transcripts should not be studied in isolation, but together, as an RNA network.