Three essays on the psychology of investment and financial markets

Préface My thesis consists of three essays where I consider equilibrium asset prices and investment strategies when the market is likely to experience crashes and possibly sharp windfalls. Although each part is written as an independent and self contained article, the papers share a common behavioral approach in representing investors preferences regarding to extremal returns. Investors utility is defined over their relative performance rather than over their final wealth position, a method first proposed by Markowitz (1952b) and by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), that I extend to incorporate preferences over extremal outcomes. With the failure of the traditional expected utility models in reproducing the observed stylized features of financial markets, the Prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979) offered the first significant alternative to the expected utility paradigm by considering that people focus on gains and losses rather than on final positions. Under this setting, Barberis, Huang, and Santos (2000) and McQueen and Vorkink (2004) were able to build a representative agent optimization model which solution reproduced some of the observed risk premium and excess volatility. The research in behavioral finance is relatively new and its potential still to explore. The three essays composing my thesis propose to use and extend this setting to study investors behavior and investment strategies in a market where crashes and sharp windfalls are likely to occur. In the first paper, the preferences of a representative agent, relative to time varying positive and negative extremal thresholds are modelled and estimated. A new utility function that conciliates between expected utility maximization and tail-related performance measures is proposed. The model estimation shows that the representative agent preferences reveals a significant level of crash aversion and lottery-pursuit. Assuming a single risky asset economy the proposed specification is able to reproduce some of the distributional features exhibited by financial return series. The second part proposes and illustrates a preference-based asset allocation model taking into account investors crash aversion. Using the skewed t distribution, optimal allocations are characterized as a resulting tradeoff between the distribution four moments. The specification highlights the preference for odd moments and the aversion for even moments. Qualitatively, optimal portfolios are analyzed in terms of firm characteristics and in a setting that reflects real-time asset allocation, a systematic over-performance is obtained compared to the aggregate stock market. Finally, in my third article, dynamic option-based investment strategies are derived and illustrated for investors presenting downside loss aversion. The problem is solved in closed form when the stock market exhibits stochastic volatility and jumps. The specification of downside loss averse utility functions allows corresponding terminal wealth profiles to be expressed as options on the stochastic discount factor contingent on the loss aversion level. Therefore dynamic strategies reduce to the replicating portfolio using exchange traded and well selected options, and the risky stock.

Parents living with HIV in a high-income country: do patients need specific support?

The number of HIV-infected persons with children and caregiving duties is likely to increase. From this statement, the present study was designed to establish how HIV infected caregivers organise their parenting routines and to determine their support needs. A further aim was to ascertain caregivers' perception of conspicuous behaviours displayed by their children. Finally, it sought to determine the extent to which the caregivers' assessment of their parenting activity is influenced by the required support and their children's perceived conspicuous behaviours. The study design was observational and cross-sectional. Sampling was based on the 7 HIV Outpatient Clinics associated with the national population-based Swiss HIV Cohort Study. It focused on persons living with HIV who are responsible for raising children below the age of 18. A total of 520 caregivers were approached and 261 participated. An anonymous, standardised, self-administered questionnaire was used for data collection. The data were analysed using descriptive statistical procedures and backward elimination multiple regression analysis. The 261 respondents cared for 406 children and adolescents under 18 years of age; the median age was 10 years. The caregivers' material resources were low. 70% had a net family income in a range below the median of Swiss net family income and 30% were dependent on welfare assistance. 73% were undergoing treatment with 86% reporting no physical impairments. The proportion of single caregivers was 34%. 92% of the children were living with their HIV infected caregivers. 80% of the children attended an institution such as a school or kindergarten during the day. 89% of the caregivers had access to social networks providing support. Nevertheless, caregivers required additional support in performing their parenting duties and indicated a need for assistance on the material level, in connection with legal problems and with participation in the labour market. 46% of the caregivers had observed one or more conspicuous behaviours displayed by their children, which indicates a challenging situation. However, most of these caregivers assessed their parenting activity very favourably. Backward elimination multiple regression analysis indicated that a smaller number of support needs, younger age of the eldest child and fewer physical impairments on the part of the caregiver enhance the caregivers' assessment of their parenting activity. Physicians should speak to caregivers living with HIV about their parenting responsibilities and provide the necessary scope for this subject in their consultation sessions. Physicians are in a position to draw their patients' attention to the services available to them.

Social sensing for psychology: Automated interpersonal behavior assessment

In this article, we show how the use of state-of-the-art methods in computer science based on machine perception and learning allows the unobtrusive capture and automated analysis of interpersonal behavior in real time (social sensing). Given the high ecological validity of the behavioral sensing, the ease of behavioral-cue extraction for large groups over long observation periods in the field, the possibility of investigating completely new research questions, and the ability to provide people with immediate feedback on behavior, social sensing will fundamentally impact psychology.