Contextual determinants of alcohol consumption changes and preventive alcohol policies: a 12-country European study in progress.

Beginning with France in the 1950s, alcohol consumption has decreased in Southern European countries with few or no preventive alcohol policy measures being implemented, while alcohol consumption has been increasing in Northern European countries where historically more restrictive alcohol control policies were in place, even though more recently they were loosened. At the same time, Central and Eastern Europe have shown an intermediate behavior. We propose that country-specific changes in alcohol consumption between 1960 and 2008 are explained by a combination of a number of factors: (1) preventive alcohol policies and (2) social, cultural, economic, and demographic determinants. This article describes the methodology of a research study designed to understand the complex interactions that have occurred throughout Europe over the past five decades. These include changes in alcohol consumption, drinking patterns and alcohol-related harm, and the actual determinants of such changes.

Clinical presentation, etiology, and outcome of infective endocarditis in the 21st century: the International Collaboration on Endocarditis-Prospective Cohort Study.

We sought to provide a contemporary picture of the presentation, etiology, and outcome of infective endocarditis (IE) in a large patient cohort from multiple locations worldwide. Prospective cohort study of 2781 adults with definite IE who were admitted to 58 hospitals in 25 countries from June 1, 2000, through September 1, 2005. The median age of the cohort was 57.9 (interquartile range, 43.2-71.8) years, and 72.1% had native valve IE. Most patients (77.0%) presented early in the disease (<30 days) with few of the classic clinical hallmarks of IE. Recent health care exposure was found in one-quarter of patients. Staphylococcus aureus was the most common pathogen (31.2%). The mitral (41.1%) and aortic (37.6%) valves were infected most commonly. The following complications were common: stroke (16.9%), embolization other than stroke (22.6%), heart failure (32.3%), and intracardiac abscess (14.4%). Surgical therapy was common (48.2%), and in-hospital mortality remained high (17.7%). Prosthetic valve involvement (odds ratio, 1.47; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-1.90), increasing age (1.30; 1.17-1.46 per 10-year interval), pulmonary edema (1.79; 1.39-2.30), S aureus infection (1.54; 1.14-2.08), coagulase-negative staphylococcal infection (1.50; 1.07-2.10), mitral valve vegetation (1.34; 1.06-1.68), and paravalvular complications (2.25; 1.64-3.09) were associated with an increased risk of in-hospital death, whereas viridans streptococcal infection (0.52; 0.33-0.81) and surgery (0.61; 0.44-0.83) were associated with a decreased risk. In the early 21st century, IE is more often an acute disease, characterized by a high rate of S aureus infection. Mortality remains relatively high.

Impact of early valve surgery on outcome of Staphylococcus aureus prosthetic valve infective endocarditis: analysis in the International Collaboration of Endocarditis-Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The impact of early valve surgery (EVS) on the outcome of Staphylococcus aureus (SA) prosthetic valve infective endocarditis (PVIE) is unresolved. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between EVS, performed within the first 60 days of hospitalization, and outcome of SA PVIE within the International Collaboration on Endocarditis-Prospective Cohort Study. METHODS: Participants were enrolled between June 2000 and December 2006. Cox proportional hazards modeling that included surgery as a time-dependent covariate and propensity adjustment for likelihood to receive cardiac surgery was used to evaluate the impact of EVS and 1-year all-cause mortality on patients with definite left-sided S. aureus PVIE and no history of injection drug use. RESULTS: EVS was performed in 74 of the 168 (44.3%) patients. One-year mortality was significantly higher among patients with S. aureus PVIE than in patients with non-S. aureus PVIE (48.2% vs 32.9%; P = .003). Staphylococcus aureus PVIE patients who underwent EVS had a significantly lower 1-year mortality rate (33.8% vs 59.1%; P = .001). In multivariate, propensity-adjusted models, EVS was not associated with 1-year mortality (risk ratio, 0.67 [95% confidence interval, .39-1.15]; P = .15). CONCLUSIONS: In this prospective, multinational cohort of patients with S. aureus PVIE, EVS was not associated with reduced 1-year mortality. The decision to pursue EVS should be individualized for each patient, based upon infection-specific characteristics rather than solely upon the microbiology of the infection causing PVIE.

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants.

One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. We used data from 751 studies including 4,372,000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-7.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. Wellcome Trust.