Modelación de la distribución de especies y ecosistemas en el tiempo y en el espacio: una revisión de las nuevas herramientas y enfoques disponibles

This article aims to present the conceptual and methodological framework in which models techniques for species and ecosystems distribution are developed. An historical review of concepts behind these techniques is made as well as the presentation of the major methodological steps involved in these tests. A discussion on how these approaches are useful for the development of new questions in the field of biogeography and biological conservation is generated. Finally, an application of distribution modeling techniques, using the specie Beilschmiedia miersii (belloto Del Norte) as a study case, is presented. This conceptual and methodological review as well as the example applied, seeks to clarify the usefulness and potential of distribution models techniques, with the objective to go forward in biogeography research and thus, farther progress in understanding spatial and temporal patterns of organism's distribution

Bioclimatic constraints to Andean cat distribution: a modelling application for rare species

AimTo identify the bioclimatic niche of the endangered Andean cat (Leopardus jacobita), one of the rarest and least known felids in the world, by developing a species distribution model.LocationSouth America, High Andes and Patagonian steppe. Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina.MethodsWe used 108 Andean cat records to build the models, and 27 to test them, applying the Maxent algorithm to sets of uncorrelated bioclimatic variables from global databases, including elevation. We based our biogeographical interpretations on the examination of the predicted geographic range, the modelled response curves and latitudinal variations in climatic variables associated with the locality data.ResultsSimple bioclimatic models for Andean cats were highly predictive with only 3-4 explanatory variables. The climatic niche of the species was defined by extreme diurnal variations in temperature, cold minimum and moderate maximum temperatures, and aridity, characteristic not only of the Andean highlands but also of the Patagonian steppe. Argentina had the highest representation of suitable climates, and Chile the lowest. The most favourable conditions were centrally located and spanned across international boundaries. Discontinuities in suitable climatic conditions coincided with three biogeographical barriers associated with climatic or topographic transitions.Main conclusionsSimple bioclimatic models can produce useful predictions of suitable climatic conditions for rare species, including major biogeographical constraints. In our study case, these constraints are also known to affect the distribution of other Andean species and the genetic structure of Andean cat populations. We recommend surveys of areas with suitable climates and no Andean cat records, including the corridor connecting two core populations. The inclusion of landscape variables at finer scales, crucially the distribution of Andean cat prey, would contribute to refine our predictions for conservation applications.

La spéciation écologique racontée au travers de l'étude de l'évolution des poissons-clowns et de quelques autres

Ecological speciation and its hallmark, adaptive radiation is a process from which most of the current biodiversity derives. As ecological opportunity allows species to colonise unoccupied niches, natural selection drives adaptive phenotypical change. In this thesis, I begin by describing how this evolutionary process acted on the evolution of the clownfishes. During its infancy, this iconic group of coral reef fishes developed a mutualism with sea anemone species. I show how this event triggered the evolutionary radiation of the group, generating species that now inhabit diverse habitats of the coral reefs. Following the appearance of the mutualism, the diversification of the clownfish was catalysed by hybridisation events which shuffled genes, allowing hybrids to reach new fitness optima. While the clownfishes appeared in the region of the coral triangle, a lineage colonised the eastern shores of Africa. I reconstructed the geographic history of the group and showed that this event lead to the rapid appearance of new species, replicating the evolutionary patterns of the original radiation. To better grasp the mechanisms of ecological speciation, I conducted analyses at the population level and identified similar evolutionary patterns than found at the clade level. I discuss how such result suggests a continuity bridging micro- and macroevolution, which so far only been theorised. In parallel to this study case, I question whether biotic and abiotic interactions can promote or restrain ecological speciation. Indeed, I show how the ecological setting of species can drastically impact on their diversification dynamics. Moreover, tradeoffs can occur between specialisation made on different ecological axes allowing species cohabitation. Overall, I show in this work that regardless of the few simple rules that explain the mechanism of ecological speciation, the unavoidable interactions with the ever changing ecological context lead diversification events to give always a different outcome. It is thus primordial to account for the ecological settings of species when discussing their evolutionary dynamics. LA SPÉCIATION ÉCOLOGIQUE RACONTÉE AU TRAVERS DE L'ÉTUDE DE L'ÉVOLUTION DES POISSONS-CLOWNS ET DE QUELQUES AUTRES Le phénomène de spéciation écologique est à l'origine de la majeure partie de la biodiversité que l'on rencontre aujourd'hui. Au fil des opportunités qu'elles rencontrent, les espèces colonisent l'espace écologique laissant la sélection naturelle forger leur phénotype moyen. Malgré l'omniprésence de ce phénomène dans la nature, beaucoup de questions qui lui sont relatives restent à élucider. C'est afin de mieux comprendre ce mécanisme que j'étudie les poissons-clowns, célèbres habitants des récifs coralliens. Dans ce travail, je démontré que le développement du comportement mutualiste liant les poissons-clowns aux anémones de mer fut l'événement qui déclencha leur diversification. Suite à ce premier événement, j'illustre comment l'hybridation entre lignées primordiales a remodelé la diversité génétique du groupe et catalysé leur radiation évolutive. Je poursuis en reconstruisant l'expansion géographique des poissons-clowns au cours du temps depuis le triangle de corail, leur lieu d'origine, jusqu'aux côtes d'Afrique de l'Ouest. Afin d'affiner ces analyses générales sur le groupe, je continue en étudiant plus finement des populations d'une seule espèce de poisson-clown. Cette fine résolution me permet de comprendre plus précisément quels sont les facteurs écologiques qui permettent aux poissons-clowns de se différencier. Les résultats de ces analyses suggèrent qu'il est important de comprendre les liens entre le contexte écologique et la diversification des espèces. J'étudie cette question dans la seconde partie de ce travail en montrant que l'hétérogénéité du paysage ou les liens entretenus avec un partenaire mutualiste influencent fortement la dynamique évolutive des espèces. Finalement, j'illustre les compromis que chaque espèce réalise en se spécialisant ou non dans ses interactions avec l'environnent. Plus généralement, je souligne dans ce travail l'influence du contexte écologique sur le résultat de la spéciation écologique. Ce sont ces interactions entre les organismes et leur environnent qui sont à l'origine de l'incroyable diversité de la vie. Il est donc primordial de les prendre en compte lors de l'étude de l'évolution des espèces.

Impact of model complexity on cross-temporal transferability in Maxent species distribution models: An assessment using paleobotanical data

Maximum entropy modeling (Maxent) is a widely used algorithm for predicting species distributions across space and time. Properly assessing the uncertainty in such predictions is non-trivial and requires validation with independent datasets. Notably, model complexity (number of model parameters) remains a major concern in relation to overfitting and, hence, transferability of Maxent models. An emerging approach is to validate the cross-temporal transferability of model predictions using paleoecological data. In this study, we assess the effect of model complexity on the performance of Maxent projections across time using two European plant species (Alnus giutinosa (L.) Gaertn. and Corylus avellana L) with an extensive late Quaternary fossil record in Spain as a study case. We fit 110 models with different levels of complexity under present time and tested model performance using AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and AlCc (corrected Akaike Information Criterion) through the standard procedure of randomly partitioning current occurrence data. We then compared these results to an independent validation by projecting the models to mid-Holocene (6000 years before present) climatic conditions in Spain to assess their ability to predict fossil pollen presence-absence and abundance. We find that calibrating Maxent models with default settings result in the generation of overly complex models. While model performance increased with model complexity when predicting current distributions, it was higher with intermediate complexity when predicting mid-Holocene distributions. Hence, models of intermediate complexity resulted in the best trade-off to predict species distributions across time. Reliable temporal model transferability is especially relevant for forecasting species distributions under future climate change. Consequently, species-specific model tuning should be used to find the best modeling settings to control for complexity, notably with paleoecological data to independently validate model projections. For cross-temporal projections of species distributions for which paleoecological data is not available, models of intermediate complexity should be selected.

Urbanités marchandes : le commerce dans la production de la qualité urbaine et ses régulations : le cas de Lausanne

While collective identity markers are constantly evolving in today's city, the hyper-consumption society has allowed retail, even though greatly transformed, to remain a community hub for socialization. Society's commodification takes shape precisely within the public realm and the urban scene: sprawling analogous drivable retail-only suburbs and turning city centers into bland, soulless and undefined places displaying homogeneous frontages characterized by the same retail storefronts worldwide. More than ever, urban policies on retail oriented servicescapes seem crucial to urban and regional planning from a sustainable perspective. Thorough the study case of Lausanne, our research focuses on how the urban planning model and its policies could set into place spatial strategies to enhance urban quality and to reorganize retail centralities without succumbing to the prevailing commodification of the public realm. -- Les indicateurs d'identité collective se reformulent dans la ville actuelle, mais la société de l'hyperconsommation a permis au commerce, aussi transformé soit-il, de rester un lieu d'échange et de brassage social. La marchandisation de la société prend des formes précises dans l'espace et a un impact certain sur le paysage urbain : multipliant les espaces marchands périphériques monofonctionnels ou encore transformant nos centres-villes en paysages anodins, présentant des vitrines semblables quel que soit le pays où elles se situent. Plus que jamais, une régulation des espaces de consommation semble incontournable pour l'aménagement du territoire et l'urbanisme dans une perspective de durabilité. À travers le cas lausannois, cette thèse s'interroge sur la façon dont les modèles urbanistiques de régulation des jeux d'acteurs privés peuvent participer à la mise en place de stratégies de qualification urbaine et d'organisation des centralités commerciales sans céder à la tentation de la marchandisation des espaces publics.

Explaining Fiscal Balances with a Simultaneous Equation Model of Revenue and Expenditure : A Case Study of Swiss Cantons Using Panel Data

Empirical literature on the analysis of the efficiency of measures for reducing persistent government deficits has mainly focused on the direct explanation of deficit. By contrast, this paper aims at modeling government revenue and expenditure within a simultaneous framework and deriving the fiscal balance (surplus or deficit) equation as the difference between the two variables. This setting enables one to not only judge how relevant the explanatory variables are in explaining the fiscal balance but also understand their impact on revenue and/or expenditure. Our empirical results, obtained by using a panel data set on Swiss Cantons for the period 1980-2002, confirm the relevance of the approach followed here, by providing unambiguous evidence of a simultaneous relationship between revenue and expenditure. They also reveal strong dynamic components in revenue, expenditure, and fiscal balance. Among the significant determinants of public fiscal balance we not only find the usual business cycle elements, but also and more importantly institutional factors such as the number of administrative units, and the ease with which people can resort to political (direct democracy) instruments, such as public initiatives and referendum.