Analyse des risques d'extinction des populations naturelles

A review of extinction risk analysis and viability methods is presented. The importance of environmental, demographic and genetic uncertainties, as well as the role of catastrophes are successively considered, and different approaches aiming at the integration of these risk factors in predictive population dynamic models are discussed.

Correlating the end-Triassic mass extinction and flood basalt volcanism at the 100 ka level

New high-precision U/Pb geochronology from volcanic ashes shows that the Triassic-Jurassic boundary and end-Triassic biological crisis from two independent marine stratigraphic sections correlate with the onset of terrestrial flood volcanism in the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province to <150 ka. This narrows the correlation between volcanism and mass extinction by an order of magnitude for any such catastrophe in Earth history. We also show that a concomitant drop and rise in sea level and negative delta C-13 spike in the very latest Triassic occurred locally in <290 ka. Such rapid sea-level fluctuations on a global scale require that global cooling and glaciation were closely associated with the end-Triassic extinction and potentially driven by Central Atlantic Magmatic Province volcanism.

Range expansion of the greater white-toothed shrew Crocidura russula in Switzerland results in local extinction of the bicoloured white-toothed shrew C-leucodon

The distribution limits of Crocidura russula (Hermann, 1780) and C. leucodon (Hermann, 1780) were investigated during an interval of 25 years in the bottom of the Rhone valley above Lake Geneva, Switzerland (total data set: 105 spatio-temporal occurrences, 1137 shrews). In 1975, the contact zone between the two species was situated in the region of Martigny. In 1999/2000, new sampling revealed three results: (1) The contact zone showed an upward shift of about 25 km. (2) In the expanded range of C. russula, the resident species has totally disappeared (confirmed by owl pellets analysis). (3) This demonstrates a dominance of C, russula over C. leucodon. Three hypotheses which may explain the range expansion of C. russula were evaluated: (1) habitat modification favouring linear dispersal due to the construction of a highway; (2) temporal event favoured by climate fluctuations, or (3) ongoing postglacial colonisation of Europe. Hypothesis 1 was rejected, because the progression of the shrews anticipated the construction. Hypothesis 3 received only weak support because range limits of C. russula in the region of Nice have been stable for thousands of years. Therefore hypothesis 2, admitting that ongoing climate change has facilitated range expansion, is the most probable.

A double layer model of the gas bubble/water interface

Zeta potential is a physico-chemical parameter of particular importance to describe sorption of contaminants at the surface of gas bubbles. Nevertheless, the interpretation of electrophoretic mobilities of gas bubbles is complex. This is due to the specific behavior of the gas at interface and to the excess of electrical charge at interface, which is responsible for surface conductivity. We developed a surface complexation model based on the presence of negative surface sites because the balance of accepting and donating hydrogen bonds is broken at interface. By considering protons adsorbed on these sites followed by a diffuse layer, the electrical potential at the head-end of the diffuse layer is computed and considered to be equal to the zeta potential. The predicted zeta potential values are in very good agreement with the experimental data of H-2 bubbles for a broad range of pH and NaCl concentrations. This implies that the shear plane is located at the head-end of the diffuse layer, contradicting the assumption of the presence of a stagnant diffuse layer at the gas/water interface. Our model also successfully predicts the surface tension of air bubbles in a KCl solution. (c) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On metapopulation resistance to drift and extinction.

The spatial configuration of metapopulations (numbers, sizes, and localization of patches) affects their ability to resist demographic extinction and genetic drift, but sometimes with opposite effects. Small and isolated patches, for instance, contribute marginally to demography but may play a large role in genetics by maintaining a sizeable amount of genetic variance among demes. In source-sink systems, similarly, connectivity may be beneficial in terms of effective size, but detrimental in terms of survival, by lowering the reproductive value of source populations. How to reconcile these opposite effects? Here we propose an analytical framework that integrates fixation time (ability to resist genetic drift) and extinction time (ability to resist demographic extinction) into a single index of resistance, measuring the ability of a metapopulation to maintain its demo-genetic integrity. We then illustrate with numerical examples how conflicting demands may be resolved.

Sex differences in the neurobiology of fear conditioning and extinction: a preliminary fMRI study of shared sex differences with stress-arousal circuitry.

BACKGROUND: The amygdala, hippocampus, medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and brain-stem subregions are implicated in fear conditioning and extinction, and are brain regions known to be sexually dimorphic. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to investigate sex differences in brain activity in these regions during fear conditioning and extinction. METHODS: Subjects were 12 healthy men comparable to 12 healthy women who underwent a 2-day experiment in a 3 T MR scanner. Fear conditioning and extinction learning occurred on day 1 and extinction recall occurred on day 2. The conditioned stimuli were visual cues and the unconditioned stimulus was a mild electric shock. Skin conductance responses (SCR) were recorded throughout the experiment as an index of the conditioned response. fMRI data (blood-oxygen-level-dependent [BOLD] signal changes) were analyzed using SPM8. RESULTS: Findings showed no significant sex differences in SCR during any experimental phases. However, during fear conditioning, there were significantly greater BOLD-signal changes in the right amygdala, right rostral anterior cingulate (rACC) and dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) in women compared with men. In contrast, men showed significantly greater signal changes in bilateral rACC during extinction recall. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate sex differences in brain activation within the fear circuitry of healthy subjects despite similar peripheral autonomic responses. Furthermore, we found that regions where sex differences were previously reported in response to stress, also exhibited sex differences during fear conditioning and extinction.

Shrews in suburbia: an application of Goodman's extinction model

An equation is applied for calculating the expected persistence time of an unstructured population of the white-toothed shrew Crocidura russula from Preverenges, a suburban area in western Switzerland. Population abundance data from March and November between 1977 and 1988 were fit to the logistic density dependence model to estimate mean population growth rate as a function of population density. The variance in mean growth rate was approximated with two different models. The largest estimated persistence time was less than a few decades, the smallest less than 10 years. The results are sensitive to the magnitude of variance in population growth rate. Deviations from the logistic density dependence model in November are quite well explained by weather variables but those in March are uncorrelated with weather variables. Variability in population growth rates measured in winter months may be better explained by behavioural mechanisms. Environmental variability, dispersal of juveniles and refugia within the range of the population may contribute to its long-term survival.

PyRate: a new program to estimate speciation and extinction rates from incomplete fossil data

Despite the advancement of phylogenetic methods to estimate speciation and extinction rates, their power can be limited under variable rates, in particular for clades with high extinction rates and small number of extant species. Fossil data can provide a powerful alternative source of information to investigate diversification processes. Here, we present PyRate, a computer program to estimate speciation and extinction rates and their temporal dynamics from fossil occurrence data. The rates are inferred in a Bayesian framework and are comparable to those estimated from phylogenetic trees. We describe how PyRate can be used to explore different models of diversification. In addition to the diversification rates, it provides estimates of the parameters of the preservation process (fossilization and sampling) and the times of speciation and extinction of each species in the data set. Moreover, we develop a new birth-death model to correlate the variation of speciation/extinction rates with changes of a continuous trait. Finally, we demonstrate the use of Bayes factors for model selection and show how the posterior estimates of a PyRate analysis can be used to generate calibration densities for Bayesian molecular clock analysis. PyRate is an open-source command-line Python program available at http://sourceforge.net/projects/pyrate/.

The role of climatic tolerances and seed traits in reduced extinction rates of temperate polygonaceae.

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is one of the most striking and consistent biodiversity patterns across taxonomic groups. We investigate the species richness gradient in the buckwheat family, Polygonaceae, which exhibits a reverse LDG and is, thus, decoupled from dominant gradients of energy and environmental stability that increase toward the tropics and confound mechanistic interpretations. We test competing age and evolutionary diversification hypotheses, which may explain the diversification of this plant family over the past 70 million years. Our analyses show that the age hypothesis, which posits that clade richness is positively correlated with the ecological and evolutionary time since clade origin, fails to explain the richness gradient observed in Polygonaceae. However, an evolutionary diversification hypothesis is highly supported, with diversification rates being 3.5 times higher in temperate clades compared to tropical clades. We demonstrate that differences in rates of speciation, migration, and molecular evolution insufficiently explain the observed patterns of differential diversification rates. We suggest that reduced extinction rates in temperate clades may be associated with adaptive responses to selection, through which seed morphology and climatic tolerances potentially act to minimize risk in temporally variable environments. Further study is needed to understand causal pathways among these traits and factors correlated with latitude.

The prelude of the end-Permian mass extinction predates a postulated bolide impact

The mass extinction at the Permian-Triassic Boundary (PTB) is said to have been abrupt and probably caused by an extraterrestrial impact. However, evidence from the Global Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) of the base of the Induan at Meishan, China, shows that the biotic crisis began prior to the level, in beds 25 and 26 at which the postulated impact event occurred. Evidence of such an earlier biotic crisis occurs in other sections in South China, and in central and western Tethyan regions. This event is characterized by the extinction of a range of faunas, including corals, deep-water radiolarians, most fusulinids and pseudotirolitidammonoids, and many Permian brachiopods. In all sections, this extinction level is usually a few decimeters to meters below that of the main mass extinction in the event beds (25 and 26) at Meishan, and their correlatives elsewhere. This earlier extinction event happened before the postulated bolide impact at the level of beds 25 and 26, and constrains interpretation of the mechanisms that brought about this greatest mass extinction.

Climatic and biotic upheavals following the end-Permian mass extinction

Recovery from the end-Permian mass extinction is frequently described as delayed(1-3), with complex ecological communities typically not found in the fossil record until the Middle Triassic epoch. However, the taxonomic diversity of a number of marine groups, ranging from ammonoids to benthic foraminifera, peaked rapidly in the Early Triassic(4-10). These variations in biodiversity occur amidst pronounced excursions in the carbon isotope record, which are compatible with episodes of massive CO2 outgassing from the Siberian Large Igneous Province(4,11-13). Here we present a high-resolution Early Triassic temperature record based on the oxygen isotope composition of pristine apatite from fossil conodonts. Our reconstruction shows that the beginning of the Smithian substage of the Early Triassic was marked by a cooler climate, followed by an interval of warmth lasting until the Spathian substage boundary. Cooler conditions resumed in the Spathian. We find the greatest increases in taxonomic diversity during the cooler phases of the early Smithian and early Spathian. In contrast, a period of extreme warmth in the middle and late Smithian was associated with floral ecological change and high faunal taxonomic turnover in the ocean. We suggest that climate upheaval and carbon-cycle perturbations due to volcanic outgassing were important drivers of Early Triassic biotic recovery.

Geochronological constraints on post-extinction recovery of the ammonoids and carbon cycle perturbations during the Early Jurassic

This paper presents the first quantitative study of the Early Jurassic recovery of ammonoids after the end-Triassic mass extinction based on detailed U-Pb ID-TIMS (isotope dilution thermal ionization mass spectrometry) geochronology from ash bed zircons placed within a clear phylogenetical and biochronological framework at the subzonal and species level. This study was triggered by the discovery of a rich Peruvian succession of ammonites, deposited concomitantly with an unusually large number of ash beds. Two major phases of rediversification are observed during the Psiloceras spelae and Angulaticeras zones that correspond to positive peaks in the delta C-13(org) curve, providing a possible link between biodiversity and the global carbon cycle. In the case of the post-extinction recovery, the development of the earliest Hettangian ammonites occurs within the genus Psiloceras, which begins with the occurrence of P. spelae and then explodes into worldwide development of smooth psiloceratids of the Psiloceras planorbis group s.l. This rapid biodiversification likely occurred less than 100 ka after the end-Triassic crisis; the genus Psiloceras occupied all the possible ecological niches worldwide, from the Pacific deep waters to the NW European shallow deposits and also in some rare Tethyan occurrences like at Germig in Tibet. This global dispersion allowed the differentiation of the group in several major phyla, the Schlotheimiidae, Discamphiceratinae, Arietitidae and Lytocerataceae, which were the roots of all other Jurassic and Cretaceous ammonites. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Precise U-Pb age constraints for end-Triassic mass extinction, its correlation to volcanism and Hettangian post-extinction recovery

New precise zircon U-Pb ages are proposed for the Triassic-Jurassic (Rhetian-Hettangian) and the Hettangian-Sinemurian boundaries, The ages were obtained by ID-TIMS dating of single chemical-abraded zircons from volcanic ash layers within the Pucara Group, Aramachay Formation in the Utcubamba valley, northern Peru. Ash layers situated between last and first occurrences of boundary-defining ammonites yielded Pb-206/U-238 ages of 201.58 +/- 0.17/0.28 Ma (95% c.l., uncertainties without/with decay constant errors, respectively) for the Triassic-Jurassic and of 199.53 +/- 0.19/0.29 Ma for the Hettangian-Sinemurian boundaries. The former is established on a tuff located 1 m above the last local occurrence of the topmost Triassic genus Choristoceras, and 5 m below the Hettangian genus Psiloceras. The latter sample was obtained from a tuff collected within the Badouxia canadensis beds. Our new ages document total duration of the Hettagian of no more than c. 2 m.y., which has fundamental implications for the interpretation and significance of the ammonite recovery after the topmost Triassic extinction. The U-Pb age is about 0.8 +/- 0.5% older than Ar-40-Ar-39 dates determined on flood basalts of the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP). Given the widely accepted hypothesis that inaccuracies in the K-40 decay constants or physical constants create a similar bias between the two dating methods, our new U-Pb zircon age determination for the T/J boundary corroborates the hypothesis that the CAMP was emplaced at the same time and may be responsible for a major climatic turnover and mass extinction. The zircon Pb-206/U-238 age for the T/J boundary is marginally older than the North Mountain Basalt (Newark Supergroup, Nova Scotia, Canada), which has been dated at 201.27 +/- 0.06 Ma [Schoene et al., 2006. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 70, 426-445]. It will be important to look for older eruptions of the CAMP and date them precisely by U-Pb techniques while addressing all sources of systematic uncertainty to further test the hypothesis of volcanic induced climate change leading to extinction. Such high-precision, high-accuracy data will be instrumental for constraining the contemporaneity of geological events at a 100 kyr level. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.