94 resultados para Box-Jenkins Approach
em Université de Lausanne, Switzerland
Resumo:
Today's approach to anti-doping is mostly centered on the judicial process, despite pursuing a further goal in the detection, reduction, solving and/or prevention of doping. Similarly to decision-making in the area of law enforcement feeding on Forensic Intelligence, anti-doping might significantly benefit from a more extensive gathering of knowledge. Forensic Intelligence might bring a broader logical dimension to the interpretation of data on doping activities for a more future-oriented and comprehensive approach instead of the traditional case-based and reactive process. Information coming from a variety of sources related to doping, whether directly or potentially, would feed an organized memory to provide real time intelligence on the size, seriousness and evolution of the phenomenon. Due to the complexity of doping, integrating analytical chemical results and longitudinal monitoring of biomarkers with physiological, epidemiological, sociological or circumstantial information might provide a logical framework enabling fit for purpose decision-making. Therefore, Anti-Doping Intelligence might prove efficient at providing a more proactive response to any potential or emerging doping phenomenon or to address existing problems with innovative actions or/and policies. This approach might prove useful to detect, neutralize, disrupt and/or prevent organized doping or the trafficking of doping agents, as well as helping to refine the targeting of athletes or teams. In addition, such an intelligence-led methodology would serve to address doping offenses in the absence of adverse analytical chemical evidence.
Resumo:
Today's approach to anti-doping is mostly centered on the judicial process, despite pursuing a further goal in the detection, reduction, solving and/or prevention of doping. Similarly to decision-making in the area of law enforcement feeding on Forensic Intelligence, anti-doping might significantly benefit from a more extensive gathering of knowledge. Forensic Intelligence might bring a broader logical dimension to the interpretation of data on doping activities for a more future-oriented and comprehensive approach instead of the traditional case-based and reactive process. Information coming from a variety of sources related to doping, whether directly or potentially, would feed an organized memory to provide real time intelligence on the size, seriousness and evolution of the phenomenon. Due to the complexity of doping, integrating analytical chemical results and longitudinal monitoring of biomarkers with physiological, epidemiological, sociological or circumstantial information might provide a logical framework enabling fit for purpose decision-making. Therefore, Anti-Doping Intelligence might prove efficient at providing a more proactive response to any potential or emerging doping phenomenon or to address existing problems with innovative actions or/and policies. This approach might prove useful to detect, neutralize, disrupt and/or prevent organized doping or the trafficking of doping agents, as well as helping to refine the targeting of athletes or teams. In addition, such an intelligence-led methodology would serve to address doping offenses in the absence of adverse analytical chemical evidence.
Resumo:
Finding out whether Plasmodium spp. are coevolving with their vertebrate hosts is of both theoretical and applied interest and can influence our understanding of the effects and dynamics of malaria infection. In this study, we tested for local adaptation as a signature of coevolution between malaria blood parasites, Plasmodium spp. and its host, the great tit, Parus major. We conducted a reciprocal transplant experiment of birds in the field, where we exposed birds from two populations to Plasmodium parasites. This experimental set-up also provided a unique opportunity to study the natural history of malaria infection in the wild and to assess the effects of primary malaria infection on juvenile birds. We present three main findings: i) there was no support for local adaptation; ii) there was a male-biased infection rate; iii) infection occurred towards the end of the summer and differed between sites. There were also site-specific effects of malaria infection on the hosts. Taken together, we present one of the few experimental studies of parasite-host local adaptation in a natural malaria system, and our results shed light on the effects of avian malaria infection in the wild.
Resumo:
The long term goal of this research is to develop a program able to produce an automatic segmentation and categorization of textual sequences into discourse types. In this preliminary contribution, we present the construction of an algorithm which takes a segmented text as input and attempts to produce a categorization of sequences, such as narrative, argumentative, descriptive and so on. Also, this work aims at investigating a possible convergence between the typological approach developed in particular in the field of text and discourse analysis in French by Adam (2008) and Bronckart (1997) and unsupervised statistical learning.
Resumo:
Fractal geometry is a fundamental approach for describing the complex irregularities of the spatial structure of point patterns. The present research characterizes the spatial structure of the Swiss population distribution in the three Swiss geographical regions (Alps, Plateau and Jura) and at the entire country level. These analyses were carried out using fractal and multifractal measures for point patterns, which enabled the estimation of the spatial degree of clustering of a distribution at different scales. The Swiss population dataset is presented on a grid of points and thus it can be modelled as a "point process" where each point is characterized by its spatial location (geometrical support) and a number of inhabitants (measured variable). The fractal characterization was performed by means of the box-counting dimension and the multifractal analysis was conducted through the Renyi's generalized dimensions and the multifractal spectrum. Results showed that the four population patterns are all multifractals and present different clustering behaviours. Applying multifractal and fractal methods at different geographical regions and at different scales allowed us to quantify and describe the dissimilarities between the four structures and their underlying processes. This paper is the first Swiss geodemographic study applying multifractal methods using high resolution data.
Resumo:
A key aspect of glucose homeostasis is the constant monitoring of blood glucose concentrations by specific glucose sensing units. These sensors, via stimulation of hormone secretion and activation of the autonomic nervous system (ANS), regulate tissue glucose uptake, utilization or production. The best described glucose detection system is that of the pancreatic beta-cells which controls insulin secretion. Secretion of other hormones, in particular glucagon, and activation of the ANS, are regulated by glucose through sensing mechanisms which are much less well characterized. Here I review some of the studies we have performed over the recent years on a mouse model of impaired glucose sensing generated by inactivation of the gene for the glucose transporter GLUT2. This transporter catalyzes glucose uptake by pancreatic beta-cells, the first step in the signaling cascade leading to glucose-stimulated insulin secretion. Inactivation of its gene leads to a loss of glucose sensing and impaired insulin secretion. Transgenic reexpression of the transporter in GLUT2/beta-cells restores their normal secretory function and rescues the mice from early death. As GLUT2 is also expressed in other tissues, these mice were then studied for the presence of other physiological defects due to absence of this transporter. These studies led to the identification of extra-pancreatic, GLUT2-dependent, glucose sensors controlling glucagon secretion and glucose utilization by peripheral tissues, in part through a control of the autonomic nervous system.
Resumo:
Geographical isolation and polyploidization are central concepts in plant evolution. The hierarchical organization of archipelagos in this study provides a framework for testing the evolutionary consequences for polyploid taxa and populations occurring in isolation. Using amplified fragment length polymorphism and simple sequence repeat markers, we determined the genetic diversity and differentiation patterns at three levels of geographical isolation in Olea europaea: mainland-archipelagos, islands within an archipelago, and populations within an island. At the subspecies scale, the hexaploid ssp. maroccana (southwest Morocco) exhibited higher genetic diversity than the insular counterparts. In contrast, the tetraploid ssp. cerasiformis (Madeira) displayed values similar to those obtained for the diploid ssp. guanchica (Canary Islands). Geographical isolation was associated with a high genetic differentiation at this scale. In the Canarian archipelago, the stepping-stone model of differentiation suggested in a previous study was partially supported. Within the western lineage, an east-to-west differentiation pattern was confirmed. Conversely, the easternmost populations were more related to the mainland ssp. europaea than to the western guanchica lineage. Genetic diversity across the Canarian archipelago was significantly correlated with the date of the last volcanic activity in the area/island where each population occurs. At the island scale, this pattern was not confirmed in older islands (Tenerife and Madeira), where populations were genetically homogeneous. In contrast, founder effects resulted in low genetic diversity and marked genetic differentiation among populations of the youngest island, La Palma.
Resumo:
Untill recently, congenital heart disease was considered as a childhood's disease. With improvement in pediatric survival, adults with a congenital heart disease (ACHD) represent an emerging group of patients who need specialized medical care. In 2010, the ESC published newguidelines on global and specific management of adults with congenital heart disease. ACHD centers organize appropriate medical care for these patients, promote specialist training and national scientific research in collaboration with other national ACHD centers.
Resumo:
Over the last few years, there has been a surge of work in a new field called "moral psychology", which uses experimental methods to test the psychological processes underlying human moral activity. In this paper, I shall follow this line of approach with the aim of working out a model of how people form value judgements and how they are motivated to act morally. I call this model an "affective picture": 'picture' because it remains strictly at the descriptive level and 'affective' because it has an important role for affects and emotions. This affective picture is grounded on a number of plausible and empirically supported hypotheses. The main idea is that we should distinguish between various kinds of value judgements by focusing on the sort of state of mind people find themselves in while uttering a judgement. "Reasoned judgements" are products of rational considerations and are based on preliminary acceptance of norms and values. On the contrary, "basic value judgements" are affective, primitive and non-reflective ways of assessing the world. As we shall see, this analysis has some consequences for the traditional internalism-externalism debate in philosophy; it highlights the fact that motivation is primarily linked to "basic value judgements" and that the judgements we openly defend might not have a particular effect on our actions, unless we are inclined to have an emotional attitude that conforms to them.
Resumo:
During upper blepharoplasty, myocutaneous excess and fat pads are treated using an anterior approach. Eyelid malpositions such as involutional ptosis or lid retraction could be associated and should be treated with associated procedures. Aponeurotic surgery on the levator muscle can make use of the same anterior approach, with the major difficulty of dosage. In cases of ptosis with a positive epinephrine test or minor muscular retraction, the Muller muscle-conjunctival surgery via a posterior approach seems to be more reproducible. Double-approach techniques are described.