46 resultados para Bivariate failure time

em Université de Lausanne, Switzerland


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Robust estimators for accelerated failure time models with asymmetric (or symmetric) error distribution and censored observations are proposed. It is assumed that the error model belongs to a log-location-scale family of distributions and that the mean response is the parameter of interest. Since scale is a main component of mean, scale is not treated as a nuisance parameter. A three steps procedure is proposed. In the first step, an initial high breakdown point S estimate is computed. In the second step, observations that are unlikely under the estimated model are rejected or down weighted. Finally, a weighted maximum likelihood estimate is computed. To define the estimates, functions of censored residuals are replaced by their estimated conditional expectation given that the response is larger than the observed censored value. The rejection rule in the second step is based on an adaptive cut-off that, asymptotically, does not reject any observation when the data are generat ed according to the model. Therefore, the final estimate attains full efficiency at the model, with respect to the maximum likelihood estimate, while maintaining the breakdown point of the initial estimator. Asymptotic results are provided. The new procedure is evaluated with the help of Monte Carlo simulations. Two examples with real data are discussed.

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PURPOSE: To analyze final long-term survival and clinical outcomes from the randomized phase III study of sunitinib in gastrointestinal stromal tumor patients after imatinib failure; to assess correlative angiogenesis biomarkers with patient outcomes. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Blinded sunitinib or placebo was given daily on a 4-week-on/2-week-off treatment schedule. Placebo-assigned patients could cross over to sunitinib at disease progression/study unblinding. Overall survival (OS) was analyzed using conventional statistical methods and the rank-preserving structural failure time (RPSFT) method to explore cross-over impact. Circulating levels of angiogenesis biomarkers were analyzed. RESULTS: In total, 243 patients were randomized to receive sunitinib and 118 to placebo, 103 of whom crossed over to open-label sunitinib. Conventional statistical analysis showed that OS converged in the sunitinib and placebo arms (median 72.7 vs. 64.9 weeks; HR, 0.876; P = 0.306) as expected, given the cross-over design. RPSFT analysis estimated median OS for placebo of 39.0 weeks (HR, 0.505, 95% CI, 0.262-1.134; P = 0.306). No new safety concerns emerged with extended sunitinib treatment. No consistent associations were found between the pharmacodynamics of angiogenesis-related plasma proteins during sunitinib treatment and clinical outcome. CONCLUSIONS: The cross-over design provided evidence of sunitinib clinical benefit based on prolonged time to tumor progression during the double-blind phase of this trial. As expected, following cross-over, there was no statistical difference in OS. RPSFT analysis modeled the absence of cross-over, estimating a substantial sunitinib OS benefit relative to placebo. Long-term sunitinib treatment was tolerated without new adverse events.

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BACKGROUND: Anti-TNFα agents are commonly used for ulcerative colitis (UC) therapy in the event of non-response to conventional strategies or as colon-salvaging therapy. The objectives were to assess the appropriateness of biological therapies for UC patients and to study treatment discontinuation over time, according to appropriateness of treatment, as a measure of outcome. METHODS: We selected adult ulcerative colitis patients from the Swiss IBD cohort who had been treated with anti-TNFα agents. Appropriateness of the first-line anti-TNFα treatment was assessed using detailed criteria developed during the European Panel on the Appropriateness of Therapy for UC. Treatment discontinuation as an outcome was assessed for categories of appropriateness. RESULTS: Appropriateness of the first-line biological treatment was determined in 186 UC patients. For 64% of them, this treatment was considered appropriate. During follow-up, 37% of all patients discontinued biological treatment, 17% specifically because of failure. Time-to-failure of treatment was significantly different among patients on an appropriate biological treatment compared to those for whom the treatment was considered not appropriate (p=0.0007). Discontinuation rate after 2years was 26% compared to 54% between those two groups. Patients on inappropriate biological treatment were more likely to have severe disease, concomitant steroids and/or immunomodulators. They were also consistently more likely to suffer a failure of efficacy and to stop therapy during follow-up. CONCLUSION: Appropriateness of first-line anti-TNFα therapy results in a greater likelihood of continuing with the therapy. In situations where biological treatment is uncertain or inappropriate, physicians should consider other options instead of prescribing anti-TNFα agents.

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Introduction: Chronic insufficiency alters homeostasis, in part due to endothelial inflammation. Plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1) is increased in renal disease, contributing to vascular damage. We assessed PAI-1 activity and PAI-1 4G/5G polymorphism in hemodialysis (HD) subjects and any association between thrombotic vascular access (VA) events and PAI-1 polymorphism. Methods: Prospective, observational study in 36 HD patients: mean age: 66.6 +/- 12.5 yr, males n=26 (72%), time on HD: 28.71 +/- 22.45 months. Vascular accesses: 10 polytetrafluoroethylene grafts (PTFEG), 22 arteriovenous fistulae (AVF), four dual lumen catheters (CAT). Control group (CG): 40 subjects; mean age: 60.0 +/- 15 yrs, males n=30 (75%). Group A (GA): thrombotic events (n=12), and group B (GB): No events (n=24). Groups were no different according to age (69.2 +/- 9.12 vs. 65.3 +/- 14.5 yrs), gender (males: 7; 58.3% vs. 18; 81.8%), time on HD (26.1 +/- 14.7 vs. 30.1 +/- 38.7 months), causes of renal failure. Time to follow-up, for access thrombosis: 12 months. Results: PAI-1 levels in HD: 7.21 +/- 2.13 vs. CG: 0.42 +/- 0.27 U/ml (p < 0.000 1). PAI-1 4G/5G polymorphic variant distribution in HD: 5G/5G: 6 (17%),4G/5G: 23 (64%); 4G/4G: 7 (19%) and in CG: 5G/5G: 14 (35%); 4G/5G: 18 (45%); 4G/4G: 8 (20%). C-reactive protein (CRP) in HD: 24.5 +/- 15.2 mg/L vs. in CG 2.3 +/- 0.2 mg/L (p < 0.0001). PAI-1 4G/5G variants: GA: 5G/5G: 3; 4G/5G: 8; 4G/4G: 1; GB: 5G/5G: 3; 4G/5G: 15; 4G/4G: 6. Thrombosis occurred in 8/10 patients (80%) with PTFEG, 3/22 (9%) in AVF, and 1/4 (25%) in CAT. Among the eight PTFEG patients with thrombosis, seven were PAI 4G/5G. Conclusions: PAI-1 levels were elevated in HD patients, independent of their polymorphic variants, 4G/5G being the most prevalent variant. Our data suggest that in patients with PTFEG the 4G/5G variant might be associated with an increased thrombosis risk.

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BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: A new coordinated interdisciplinary unit was created in the acute section of the department of clinical neurosciences, the Acute NeuroRehabilitation (NRA) unit. The objective was to evaluate the impact of the unit and its neurosensory programme on the management of tracheostomy patients in terms of reduction in the average time taken for weaning, weaning success rate and therapeutic efficiency. METHODS: This 49-month retrospective study compares 2 groups of tracheostomy patients before (n = 34) and after (n = 46) NRA intervention. The outcome measures evaluate the benefits of the NRA unit intervention (time to decannulation, weaning and complication rates) and the benefits of the coordination (time to registration in a rehabilitation centre and rate of non-compliance with standards of care). RESULTS: Weaning failure rate was reduced from 27.3% to 9.1%, no complications or recannulations were observed in the post-intervention group after weaning and time to decannulation following admission to our unit decreased from 19.13 to 12.75 days. The rate of non-compliance with patient standards of care was significantly reduced from 45% to 30% (Mann-Whitney p = 0.003). DISCUSSION/CONCLUSIONS: This interdisciplinary weaning programme helped to reduce weaning time and weaning failure, without increased complications, in the sample studied. Coordination improved the efficiency of the interdisciplinary team in the multiplicity and complexity of the different treatments.

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OBJECTIVES: It is still debated if pre-existing minority drug-resistant HIV-1 variants (MVs) affect the virological outcomes of first-line NNRTI-containing ART. METHODS: This Europe-wide case-control study included ART-naive subjects infected with drug-susceptible HIV-1 as revealed by population sequencing, who achieved virological suppression on first-line ART including one NNRTI. Cases experienced virological failure and controls were subjects from the same cohort whose viraemia remained suppressed at a matched time since initiation of ART. Blinded, centralized 454 pyrosequencing with parallel bioinformatic analysis in two laboratories was used to identify MVs in the 1%-25% frequency range. ORs of virological failure according to MV detection were estimated by logistic regression. RESULTS: Two hundred and sixty samples (76 cases and 184 controls), mostly subtype B (73.5%), were used for the analysis. Identical MVs were detected in the two laboratories. 31.6% of cases and 16.8% of controls harboured pre-existing MVs. Detection of at least one MV versus no MVs was associated with an increased risk of virological failure (OR = 2.75, 95% CI = 1.35-5.60, P = 0.005); similar associations were observed for at least one MV versus no NRTI MVs (OR = 2.27, 95% CI = 0.76-6.77, P = 0.140) and at least one MV versus no NNRTI MVs (OR = 2.41, 95% CI = 1.12-5.18, P = 0.024). A dose-effect relationship between virological failure and mutational load was found. CONCLUSIONS: Pre-existing MVs more than double the risk of virological failure to first-line NNRTI-based ART.

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Acute cardiovascular dysfunction occurs perioperatively in more than 20% of cardiosurgical patients, yet current acute heart failure (HF) classification is not applicable to this period. Indicators of major perioperative risk include unstable coronary syndromes, decompensated HF, significant arrhythmias and valvular disease. Clinical risk factors include history of heart disease, compensated HF, cerebrovascular disease, presence of diabetes mellitus, renal insufficiency and high-risk surgery. EuroSCORE reliably predicts perioperative cardiovascular alteration in patients aged less than 80 years. Preoperative B-type natriuretic peptide level is an additional risk stratification factor. Aggressively preserving heart function during cardiosurgery is a major goal. Volatile anaesthetics and levosimendan seem to be promising cardioprotective agents, but large trials are still needed to assess the best cardioprotective agent(s) and optimal protocol(s). The aim of monitoring is early detection and assessment of mechanisms of perioperative cardiovascular dysfunction. Ideally, volume status should be assessed by 'dynamic' measurement of haemodynamic parameters. Assess heart function first by echocardiography, then using a pulmonary artery catheter (especially in right heart dysfunction). If volaemia and heart function are in the normal range, cardiovascular dysfunction is very likely related to vascular dysfunction. In treating myocardial dysfunction, consider the following options, either alone or in combination: low-to-moderate doses of dobutamine and epinephrine, milrinone or levosimendan. In vasoplegia-induced hypotension, use norepinephrine to maintain adequate perfusion pressure. Exclude hypovolaemia in patients under vasopressors, through repeated volume assessments. Optimal perioperative use of inotropes/vasopressors in cardiosurgery remains controversial, and further large multinational studies are needed. Cardiosurgical perioperative classification of cardiac impairment should be based on time of occurrence (precardiotomy, failure to wean, postcardiotomy) and haemodynamic severity of the patient's condition (crash and burn, deteriorating fast, stable but inotrope dependent). In heart dysfunction with suspected coronary hypoperfusion, an intra-aortic balloon pump is highly recommended. A ventricular assist device should be considered before end organ dysfunction becomes evident. Extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation is an elegant solution as a bridge to recovery and/or decision making. This paper offers practical recommendations for management of perioperative HF in cardiosurgery based on European experts' opinion. It also emphasizes the need for large surveys and studies to assess the optimal way to manage perioperative HF in cardiac surgery.

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The 30 M m3 rockslide that occurred on the east face of Turtle Mountain in the Crowsnest Pass area (Alberta) in 1903 is one of the most famous landslides in the world. In this paper, the structural features of the South part of Turtle Mountain are investigated in order to understand the present-day scar morphology and to identify the most important failure mechanisms. The structural features were mapped using a high resolution digital elevation model (DEM) in order to have a large overview of the relevant structural features. At the same time, a field survey was carried out and small scale fractures were analyzed in different parts of southern Turtle Mountain in order to confirm the DEM analysis. Results allow to identify six main discontinuity sets that influence the Turtle Mountain morphology. These discontinuity sets were then used to identify the potential failure mechanisms affecting Third Peak and South Peak area.

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BACKGROUND: For over 50 years, radiocephalic wrist arteriovenous fistulae (RCAVF) have been the primary and best vascular access for haemodialysis. Nevertheless, early failure due to thrombosis or non-maturation is a major complication resulting in their abandonment. This prospective study was designed to investigate the predictive value of intra-operative blood flow on early failure of primary RCAVF before the first effective dialysis. METHODS: We enrolled patients undergoing creation of primary RCAVF for haemodialysis based on the pre-operative ultrasound vascular mapping discussed in a multidisciplinary approach. Intra-operative blood flow measurement was systematically performed once the anastomosis had been completed using a transit-time ultrasonic flowmeter. During the follow-up, blood flow was estimated by colour flow ultrasound at various intervals. Any events related to the RCAVF were recorded. RESULTS: Autogenous RCAVFs (n = 58) in 58 patients were constructed and followed up for an average of 30 days. Thrombosis and non-maturation occurred in eight (14%) and four (7%) patients, respectively. The intra-operative blood flow in functioning RCAVFs was significantly higher compared to non-functioning RCAVFs (230 vs 98 mL/min; P = 0.007), as well as 1 week (753 vs 228 mL/min; P = 0.0008) and 4 weeks (915 vs 245 mL/min, P < 0.0001) later. Blood flow volume measurements with a cut-off value of 120 mL/min had a sensitivity of 67%, specificity of 75% and positive predictive value of 91%. CONCLUSIONS: Blood flow <120 mL has a good predictive value for early failure in RCAVF. During the procedure, this cut-off value may be used to select appropriately which RCAVF should be investigated in the operation theatre in order to correct in real time any abnormality.

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BACKGROUND: Superinfection with drug resistant HIV strains could potentially contribute to compromised therapy in patients initially infected with drug-sensitive virus and receiving antiretroviral therapy. To investigate the importance of this potential route to drug resistance, we developed a bioinformatics pipeline to detect superinfection from routinely collected genotyping data, and assessed whether superinfection contributed to increased drug resistance in a large European cohort of viremic, drug treated patients. METHODS: We used sequence data from routine genotypic tests spanning the protease and partial reverse transcriptase regions in the Virolab and EuResist databases that collated data from five European countries. Superinfection was indicated when sequences of a patient failed to cluster together in phylogenetic trees constructed with selected sets of control sequences. A subset of the indicated cases was validated by re-sequencing pol and env regions from the original samples. RESULTS: 4425 patients had at least two sequences in the database, with a total of 13816 distinct sequence entries (of which 86% belonged to subtype B). We identified 107 patients with phylogenetic evidence for superinfection. In 14 of these cases, we analyzed newly amplified sequences from the original samples for validation purposes: only 2 cases were verified as superinfections in the repeated analyses, the other 12 cases turned out to involve sample or sequence misidentification. Resistance to drugs used at the time of strain replacement did not change in these two patients. A third case could not be validated by re-sequencing, but was supported as superinfection by an intermediate sequence with high degenerate base pair count within the time frame of strain switching. Drug resistance increased in this single patient. CONCLUSIONS: Routine genotyping data are informative for the detection of HIV superinfection; however, most cases of non-monophyletic clustering in patient phylogenies arise from sample or sequence mix-up rather than from superinfection, which emphasizes the importance of validation. Non-transient superinfection was rare in our mainly treatment experienced cohort, and we found a single case of possible transmitted drug resistance by this route. We therefore conclude that in our large cohort, superinfection with drug resistant HIV did not compromise the efficiency of antiretroviral treatment.

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A 5-year-old previously healthy boy was admitted for abdominal pain and vomiting. Physical examination showed tachypnoe (32/min), hepatomegaly and painful palpation of the upper right abdominal quadrant. Laboratory tests were normal except for elevated ammonium (202mcmol/l). Chest X-ray was performed, showing cardiomegaly and interstitial edema. Transthoracic echocardiography revealed dilated left cavities and LV hypertrophy together with a diffuse hypokinesia and LVEF of 30-40%. Diuretics and ACE-inhibitors were introduced. At that time, the differential diagnosis for the DCM included myocarditis, congenital or genetic, metabolic or autoimmune disease. The next day, the boy underwent cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) examination, showing a severe dilatation of the LV with an end-diastolic diameter of 50mm and a volume of 150ml. LVEF was 20% with diffuse LV hypokinesia (Fig. 1). No late enhancement was present after Gadolinium injection, ruling out myocarditis. Further laboratory metabolic analysis indicated severely decreased total and free carnitin levels and low renal carnitin reabsorption, corroborating the diagnosis of primary carnitin deficiency (PCD). Carnitin substitution was initiated. The clinical condition rapidly improved. No symptoms of heart failure were present anymore. A follow-up CMR performed 9 months later confirmed the recovery. LV end-diastolic volume decreased from 150ml to 66ml, LVEF increased from 20% to 55% (Fig. 2). Late enhancement was absent after Gadolinum injection (Fig. 3).Carnitin is required for the transport of fatty acids from the cytosol into mitochondria during lipid breakdown. 75% of carnitin is obtained from food, 25% is endogenously synthesized. PCD is an autosomal recessive disorder resulting from impairment of a transporter activity, caused by mutation of the SLC22A5 gene. Incidence is about 1 in 40'000 newborns. Diagnosis is usually made at age 1 to 7. Three forms of PCD are described. In the form associated with cardiomyopathy, the disease is progressive and patient die from heart failure if not treated. Substitution of L-Carnitin leads to a dramatic improvement of disease course.This case underlines the crucial role of etiologic diagnostics in this reversible form of DCM. Early diagnostics and therapy are critical for the prognosis of the patient. This is furthermore an example of a role played by CMR in the diagnostic work-up of heart failure and its follow-up under therapy.

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OBJECTIVES: Increasing evidence suggests that left ventricular remodeling is associated with a shift from fatty acid to glucose metabolism for energy production. The aim of this study was to determine whether left ventricular remodeling with and without late-onset heart failure after myocardial infarction is associated with regional changes in the expression of regulatory proteins of glucose or fatty acid metabolism. METHODS: Myocardial infarction was induced in rats by ligation of the left anterior descending coronary artery (LAD). In infarcted and sham-operated hearts the peri-infarction region (5-mm zone surrounding the region at risk), the interventricular septum and the right ventricular free wall were separated for analysis. RESULTS: At 8 and 20 weeks after LAD ligation, the peri-infarction region and the septum exhibited marked re-expression of atrial natriuretic factor [+252+/-37 and +1093+/-279%, respectively, in the septum (P<0.05)] and of alpha-smooth muscle actin [+34+/-10 and +43+/-14%, respectively, in the septum (P<0.05)]. At 8 weeks, when left ventricular hypertrophy was present without signs of heart failure, myocardial mRNA expression of glucose transporters (GLUT-1 and GLUT-4) was not altered, whereas mRNA expression of medium-chain acyl-CoA dehydrogenase (MCAD) was significantly reduced in the peri-infarction region (-25+/-7%; P<0.05). In hearts exhibiting heart failure 20 weeks after infarct-induction there was a change in all three ventricular regions of both mRNA and protein content of GLUT-1 [+72+/-28 and +121+/-15%, respectively, in the peri-infarction region (P<0.05)] and MCAD [-29+/-9 and -56+/-4%, respectively, in the peri-infarction region (P<0.05)]. CONCLUSION: In rats with large myocardial infarction, progression from compensated remodeling to overt heart failure is associated with upregulation of GLUT-1 and downregulation of MCAD in both the peri-infarction region and the septum.

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BACKGROUND: Early virological failure of antiretroviral therapy associated with the selection of drug-resistant human immunodeficiency virus type 1 in treatment-naive patients is very critical, because virological failure significantly increases the risk of subsequent failures. Therefore, we evaluated the possible role of minority quasispecies of drug-resistant human immunodeficiency virus type 1, which are undetectable at baseline by population sequencing, with regard to early virological failure. METHODS: We studied 4 patients who experienced early virological failure of a first-line regimen of lamivudine, tenofovir, and either efavirenz or nevirapine and 18 control patients undergoing similar treatment without virological failure. The key mutations K65R, K103N, Y181C, M184V, and M184I in the reverse transcriptase were quantified by allele-specific real-time polymerase chain reaction performed on plasma samples before and during early virological treatment failure. RESULTS: Before treatment, none of the viruses showed any evidence of drug resistance in the standard genotype analysis. Minority quasispecies with either the M184V mutation or the M184I mutation were detected in 3 of 18 control patients. In contrast, all 4 patients whose treatment was failing had harbored drug-resistant viruses at low frequencies before treatment, with a frequency range of 0.07%-2.0%. A range of 1-4 mutations was detected in viruses from each patient. Most of the minority quasispecies were rapidly selected and represented the major virus population within weeks after the patients started antiretroviral therapy. All 4 patients showed good adherence to treatment. Nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor plasma concentrations were in normal ranges for all 4 patients at 2 separate assessment times. CONCLUSIONS: Minority quasispecies of drug-resistant viruses, detected at baseline, can rapidly outgrow and become the major virus population and subsequently lead to early therapy failure in treatment-naive patients who receive antiretroviral therapy regimens with a low genetic resistance barrier.

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The aim of this study was to characterize the effect of a 5 km running time trial on the neuromuscular properties of the plantar flexors. Eleven well-trained triathletes performed a series of neuromuscular tests before and immediately after the run on a 200 m indoor track. Muscle activation (twitch interpolation) and normalized EMG activity were assessed during maximal voluntary contraction (MVC) of plantar flexors. Maximal soleus H-reflexes and M-waves were evoked at rest (i.e. H (MAX) and M (MAX), respectively) and during MVC (i.e. H (SUP) and M (SUP), respectively). MVC significantly declined (-27%; P < 0.001) after the run, due to decrease in muscle activation (-8%; P < 0.05) and M (MAX)-normalized EMG activity (-13%; P < 0.05). Significant reductions in M-wave amplitudes (M (MAX): -13% and M (SUP): -16%; P < 0.05) as well as H (MAX)/M (MAX) (-37%; P < 0.01) and H (SUP)/M (SUP) (-25%; P < 0.05) ratios occurred with fatigue. Following exercise, the single twitch was characterized by lower peak torque (-16%; P < 0.001) as well as shorter contraction (-19%; P < 0.001) and half-relaxation (-24%; P < 0.001) times. In conclusion, the reduction in plantar flexors strength induced by a 5 km running time trial is caused by peripheral adjustments, which are attributable to a failure of the neuromuscular transmission and excitation-contraction coupling. Fatigue also decreased the magnitude of efferent motor outflow from spinal motor neurons to the plantar flexors and part of this suboptimal neural drive is the result of an inhibition of soleus motoneuron pool reflex excitability.

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Synchronization behavior of electroencephalographic (EEG) signals is important for decoding information processing in the human brain. Modern multichannel EEG allows a transition from traditional measurements of synchronization in pairs of EEG signals to whole-brain synchronization maps. The latter can be based on bivariate measures (BM) via averaging over pair-wise values or, alternatively, on multivariate measures (MM), which directly ascribe a single value to the synchronization in a group. In order to compare BM versus MM, we applied nine different estimators to simulated multivariate time series with known parameters and to real EEGs.We found widespread correlations between BM and MM, which were almost frequency-independent for all the measures except coherence. The analysis of the behavior of synchronization measures in simulated settings with variable coupling strength, connection probability, and parameter mismatch showed that some of them, including S-estimator, S-Renyi, omega, and coherence, aremore sensitive to linear interdependences,while others, like mutual information and phase locking value, are more responsive to nonlinear effects. Onemust consider these properties together with the fact thatMM are computationally less expensive and, therefore, more efficient for the large-scale data sets than BM while choosing a synchronization measure for EEG analysis.